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The Pronk Pops Show 1334, October 4, Story 1: President Trump’s On Way To Helicopter News Conference  — Videos –Story 2: Good October 2019 Jobs Report With 3.5% U-3 Unemployment Rate and 133,000 Jobs Created in September With Labor Participation Rate of 63.2% Heading Slowly Back To 67% — Videos — Story 3: Senator Bernie Sanders Heat Attack Will Prevent Him From Winning The Democrat Presidential Nomination in 2019 — Senator Elizabeth Warren Most Likely Radical Extremist Democratic Socialist (REDS) Candidate for President in 2019 — Videos — Story 4: President Trump Goes After The Black American Vote by Addressing The Young Black Leadership Summit 2019 — Videos

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The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts

Pronk Pops Show 1334 October 4, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1333 October 3, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1332 October 2, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1331 October 1, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1330 September 30, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1329 September 27, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1328 September 26, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1327 September 25, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1326 September 24, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1325 September 23, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1324 September 20, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1323 September 19, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1322 September 18 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1321 September 17, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1320 September 16, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1319 September 13, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1318 September 12, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1317 September 11, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1316 September 10, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1315 September 9, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1314 September 6, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1313 August 28, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1312 August 27, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1311 August 26, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1310 August 21, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1309 August 20, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1308 August 19, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1307 August 15, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1306 August 14, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1305 August 12, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1304 August 8, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1303 August 7, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1302 August 6, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1301 August 5, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1300 August 1, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1299 July 31, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1298 July 30, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1297 July 29, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1296 July 25, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1295 July 24, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1294 July 23, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1293 July 22, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1292 July 18, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1291 July 17, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1290 July 16, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1289 July 15, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1288 July 11, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1287 July 10, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1286 July 9, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1285 July 8, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1284 July 2, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1283 July 1, 2019

See the source image

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

See the source image

Story 1: President Trump’s On Way To Helicopter News Conference  — Videos

See the source image

Trump on the White House lawnSee the source image

Trump says calls to investigate Biden is about fighting corruption

Story 2: Good October Jobs Report With 3.5% U-3 Unemployment Rate Lowest Since 1969,  6.9% U-6 Unemployment Rate, 136,000 Jobs Created in September With Unchanged Labor Participation Rate of 63.2% Heading Slowly Back To Normal Range of 66% to 67% — No Recession In Sight — Videos

Kudlow on September jobs report, reacts to recession fears

US economy added 136K jobs in September

September unemployment rate falls to a 50-year low at 3.5%, job payrolls up 136,000

Jobs report: Unemployment at 50-year low

September Jobs Report: 136K Jobs Added, Just Missing Expectations | Morning Joe | MSNBC

UBS Chief Economist: Jobs report key in understanding recession outlook

Alternate Unemployment Charts

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

 

Public Commentary on Unemployment

Unemployment Data Series   subcription required(Subscription required.)  View  Download Excel CSV File   Last Updated: October 4th, 2019

The ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate for September 2019 is 20.9%.

Republishing our charts:  Permission, Restrictions and Instructions (includes important requirements for successful hot-linking)

http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

 

Civilian Labor Force Level

164,039,000

 

 

Series Id:           LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 142267(1) 142456 142434 142751 142388 142591 142278 142514 142518 142622 142962 143248
2001 143800 143701 143924 143569 143318 143357 143654 143284 143989 144086 144240 144305
2002 143883 144653 144481 144725 144938 144808 144803 145009 145552 145314 145041 145066
2003 145937(1) 146100 146022 146474 146500 147056 146485 146445 146530 146716 147000 146729
2004 146842(1) 146709 146944 146850 147065 147460 147692 147564 147415 147793 148162 148059
2005 148029(1) 148364 148391 148926 149261 149238 149432 149779 149954 150001 150065 150030
2006 150214(1) 150641 150813 150881 151069 151354 151377 151716 151662 152041 152406 152732
2007 153144(1) 152983 153051 152435 152670 153041 153054 152749 153414 153183 153835 153918
2008 154063(1) 153653 153908 153769 154303 154313 154469 154641 154570 154876 154639 154655
2009 154210(1) 154538 154133 154509 154747 154716 154502 154307 153827 153784 153878 153111
2010 153484(1) 153694 153954 154622 154091 153616 153691 154086 153975 153635 154125 153650
2011 153263(1) 153214 153376 153543 153479 153346 153288 153760 154131 153961 154128 153995
2012 154381(1) 154671 154749 154545 154866 155083 154948 154763 155160 155554 155338 155628
2013 155763(1) 155312 155005 155394 155536 155749 155599 155605 155687 154673 155265 155182
2014 155352(1) 155483 156028 155369 155684 155707 156007 156130 156040 156417 156494 156332
2015 157053(1) 156663 156626 157017 157616 157014 157008 157165 156745 157188 157502 158080
2016 158371(1) 158705 159079 158891 158700 158899 159150 159582 159810 159768 159629 159779
2017 159693(1) 159854 160036 160169 159910 160124 160383 160706 161190 160436 160626 160636
2018 161123(1) 161900 161646 161551 161667 162129 162209 161802 162055 162694 162821 163240
2019 163229(1) 163184 162960 162470 162646 162981 163351 163922 164039
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Labor Force Participation Rate

63.2%

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.1 67.1 66.9 66.9 66.9 66.8 66.9 67.0
2001 67.2 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.7 66.8 66.5 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.7
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 65.8
2009 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.6
2010 64.8 64.9 64.9 65.2 64.9 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.4 64.6 64.3
2011 64.2 64.1 64.2 64.2 64.1 64.0 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.1 64.1 64.0
2012 63.7 63.8 63.8 63.7 63.7 63.8 63.7 63.5 63.6 63.8 63.6 63.7
2013 63.7 63.4 63.3 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.3 63.3 63.2 62.8 63.0 62.9
2014 62.9 62.9 63.1 62.8 62.9 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.8
2015 62.9 62.7 62.6 62.7 62.9 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.4 62.5 62.6 62.7
2016 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.7
2017 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 63.1 62.7 62.8 62.7
2018 62.7 63.0 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.7 62.7 62.9 62.9 63.1
2019 63.2 63.2 63.0 62.8 62.8 62.9 63.0 63.2 63.2

 

Series Id:           LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.1 67.1 66.9 66.9 66.9 66.8 66.9 67.0
2001 67.2 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.7 66.8 66.5 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.7
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 65.8
2009 65.7 65.8 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.0 65.0 64.6
2010 64.8 64.9 64.9 65.2 64.9 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.4 64.6 64.3
2011 64.2 64.1 64.2 64.2 64.1 64.0 64.0 64.1 64.2 64.1 64.1 64.0
2012 63.7 63.8 63.8 63.7 63.7 63.8 63.7 63.5 63.6 63.8 63.6 63.7
2013 63.7 63.4 63.3 63.4 63.4 63.4 63.3 63.3 63.2 62.8 63.0 62.9
2014 62.9 62.9 63.1 62.8 62.9 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.8
2015 62.9 62.7 62.6 62.7 62.9 62.6 62.6 62.6 62.4 62.5 62.6 62.7
2016 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.7
2017 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 63.1 62.7 62.8 62.7
2018 62.7 63.0 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.9 62.9 62.7 62.7 62.9 62.9 63.1
2019 63.2 63.2 63.0 62.8 62.8 62.9 63.0 63.2 63.2

Employment Level

158,269,000

 

Series Id:           LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 136559(1) 136598 136701 137270 136630 136940 136531 136662 136893 137088 137322 137614
2001 137778 137612 137783 137299 137092 136873 137071 136241 136846 136392 136238 136047
2002 135701 136438 136177 136126 136539 136415 136413 136705 137302 137008 136521 136426
2003 137417(1) 137482 137434 137633 137544 137790 137474 137549 137609 137984 138424 138411
2004 138472(1) 138542 138453 138680 138852 139174 139556 139573 139487 139732 140231 140125
2005 140245(1) 140385 140654 141254 141609 141714 142026 142434 142401 142548 142499 142752
2006 143150(1) 143457 143741 143761 144089 144353 144202 144625 144815 145314 145534 145970
2007 146028(1) 146057 146320 145586 145903 146063 145905 145682 146244 145946 146595 146273
2008 146378(1) 146156 146086 146132 145908 145737 145532 145203 145076 144802 144100 143369
2009 142152(1) 141640 140707 140656 140248 140009 139901 139492 138818 138432 138659 138013
2010 138438(1) 138581 138751 139297 139241 139141 139179 139438 139396 139119 139044 139301
2011 139250(1) 139394 139639 139586 139624 139384 139524 139942 140183 140368 140826 140902
2012 141584(1) 141858 142036 141899 142206 142391 142292 142291 143044 143431 143333 143330
2013 143292(1) 143362 143316 143635 143882 143999 144264 144326 144418 143537 144479 144778
2014 145150(1) 145134 145648 145667 145825 146247 146399 146530 146778 147427 147404 147615
2015 148150(1) 148053 148122 148491 148802 148765 148815 149175 148853 149270 149506 150164
2016 150622(1) 150934 151146 150963 151074 151104 151450 151766 151877 151949 152150 152276
2017 152128(1) 152417 152958 153150 152920 153176 153456 153591 154399 153847 153945 154065
2018 154482(1) 155213 155160 155216 155539 155592 155964 155604 156069 156582 156803 156945
2019 156694(1) 156949 156748 156645 156758 157005 157288 157878 158269
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Unemployment Level

5,769,000

 

Series Id:           LNS13000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Level
Labor force status:  Unemployed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 5708 5858 5733 5481 5758 5651 5747 5853 5625 5534 5639 5634
2001 6023 6089 6141 6271 6226 6484 6583 7042 7142 7694 8003 8258
2002 8182 8215 8304 8599 8399 8393 8390 8304 8251 8307 8520 8640
2003 8520 8618 8588 8842 8957 9266 9011 8896 8921 8732 8576 8317
2004 8370 8167 8491 8170 8212 8286 8136 7990 7927 8061 7932 7934
2005 7784 7980 7737 7672 7651 7524 7406 7345 7553 7453 7566 7279
2006 7064 7184 7072 7120 6980 7001 7175 7091 6847 6727 6872 6762
2007 7116 6927 6731 6850 6766 6979 7149 7067 7170 7237 7240 7645
2008 7685 7497 7822 7637 8395 8575 8937 9438 9494 10074 10538 11286
2009 12058 12898 13426 13853 14499 14707 14601 14814 15009 15352 15219 15098
2010 15046 15113 15202 15325 14849 14474 14512 14648 14579 14516 15081 14348
2011 14013 13820 13737 13957 13855 13962 13763 13818 13948 13594 13302 13093
2012 12797 12813 12713 12646 12660 12692 12656 12471 12115 12124 12005 12298
2013 12471 11950 11689 11760 11654 11751 11335 11279 11270 11136 10787 10404
2014 10202 10349 10380 9702 9859 9460 9608 9599 9262 8990 9090 8717
2015 8903 8610 8504 8526 8814 8249 8194 7990 7892 7918 7995 7916
2016 7749 7771 7932 7928 7626 7795 7700 7817 7933 7819 7480 7503
2017 7565 7437 7078 7019 6991 6948 6927 7115 6791 6588 6682 6572
2018 6641 6687 6486 6335 6128 6537 6245 6197 5986 6112 6018 6294
2019 6535 6235 6211 5824 5888 5975 6063 6044 5769

 

 

Unemployment Rate

3.5%

Series Id:           LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status:  Unemployment rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.9 5.1 5.0 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.1 6.5 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.3 8.7 9.0 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.8 10.0 9.9 9.9
2010 9.8 9.8 9.9 9.9 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.8 9.3
2011 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.1 9.0 9.0 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.5
2012 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.2 8.1 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.9
2013 8.0 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.2 6.9 6.7
2014 6.6 6.7 6.7 6.2 6.3 6.1 6.2 6.1 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6
2015 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.3 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.0
2016 4.9 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.7 4.7
2017 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.1
2018 4.1 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9
2019 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5

Not in Labor Force

95,599,000

Series Id:           LNS15000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Not in Labor Force
Labor force status:  Not in labor force
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 69142 69120 69338 69267 69853 69876 70398 70401 70645 70782 70579 70488
2001 70088 70409 70381 70956 71414 71592 71526 72136 71676 71817 71876 72010
2002 72623 72010 72343 72281 72260 72600 72827 72856 72554 73026 73508 73675
2003 73960 74015 74295 74066 74268 73958 74767 75062 75249 75324 75280 75780
2004 75319 75648 75606 75907 75903 75735 75730 76113 76526 76399 76259 76581
2005 76808 76677 76846 76514 76409 76673 76721 76642 76739 76958 77138 77394
2006 77339 77122 77161 77318 77359 77317 77535 77451 77757 77634 77499 77376
2007 77506 77851 77982 78818 78810 78671 78904 79461 79047 79532 79105 79238
2008 78554 79156 79087 79429 79102 79314 79395 79466 79790 79736 80189 80380
2009 80529 80374 80953 80762 80705 80938 81367 81780 82495 82766 82865 83813
2010 83349 83304 83206 82707 83409 84075 84199 84014 84347 84895 84590 85240
2011 85441 85637 85623 85603 85834 86144 86383 86111 85940 86308 86312 86589
2012 87888 87765 87855 88239 88100 88073 88405 88803 88613 88429 88836 88722
2013 88900 89516 89990 89780 89827 89803 90156 90355 90481 91708 91302 91563
2014 91563 91603 91230 92070 91938 92107 92016 92099 92406 92240 92350 92695
2015 92671 93237 93454 93249 92839 93649 93868 93931 94580 94353 94245 93856
2016 94026 93872 93689 94077 94475 94498 94470 94272 94281 94553 94911 94963
2017 94389 94392 94378 94419 94857 94833 94769 94651 94372 95330 95323 95473
2018 95657 95033 95451 95721 95787 95513 95633 96264 96235 95821 95886 95649
2019 95010 95208 95577 96223 96215 96057 95874 95510 95599

  U-6 Unemployment Rate

6.9%

 

Series Id:           LNS13327709
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status:  Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over
Percent/rates:       Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 7.1 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.9
2001 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.6
2002 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8
2003 10.0 10.2 10.0 10.2 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8
2004 9.9 9.7 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.4 9.2
2005 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.6
2006 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.9
2007 8.4 8.2 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.8
2008 9.2 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.0 11.8 12.6 13.6
2009 14.2 15.2 15.8 15.9 16.5 16.5 16.4 16.7 16.7 17.1 17.1 17.1
2010 16.7 17.0 17.1 17.1 16.6 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.8 16.6 16.9 16.6
2011 16.2 16.0 15.9 16.1 15.8 16.1 15.9 16.1 16.4 15.8 15.5 15.2
2012 15.2 15.0 14.5 14.6 14.7 14.8 14.8 14.6 14.8 14.4 14.4 14.4
2013 14.6 14.4 13.8 14.0 13.8 14.2 13.8 13.6 13.5 13.6 13.1 13.1
2014 12.7 12.6 12.6 12.3 12.2 12.0 12.1 12.0 11.7 11.5 11.4 11.2
2015 11.3 11.0 10.8 10.8 10.9 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.0 9.8 10.0 9.9
2016 9.8 9.7 9.8 9.7 9.9 9.5 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.2
2017 9.3 9.1 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.5 8.5 8.6 8.3 8.0 8.0 8.1
2018 8.2 8.2 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.8 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.6 7.6
2019 8.1 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.9

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this news release is embargoed until		USDL-19-1735
8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, October 4, 2019

Technical information: 
 Household data:	(202) 691-6378  *  cpsinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/cps
 Establishment data:	(202) 691-6555  *  cesinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact:		(202) 691-5902  *  PressOffice@bls.gov

	
			THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2019


The unemployment rate declined to 3.5 percent in September, and total nonfarm 
payroll employment rose by 136,000, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported 
today. Employment in health care and in professional and business services continued 
to trend up.  

This news release presents statistics from two monthly surveys. The household survey 
measures labor force status, including unemployment, by demographic characteristics. 
The establishment survey measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. 
For more information about the concepts and statistical methodology used in these two 
surveys, see the Technical Note.

Household Survey Data

In September, the unemployment rate declined by 0.2 percentage point to 3.5 percent. 
The last time the rate was this low was in December 1969, when it also was 3.5 percent.
Over the month, the number of unemployed persons decreased by 275,000 to 5.8 million. 
(See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rate for Whites declined to 3.2 
percent in September. The jobless rates for adult men (3.2 percent), adult women 
(3.1 percent), teenagers (12.5 percent), Blacks (5.5 percent), Asians (2.5 percent), 
and Hispanics (3.9 percent) showed little or no change over the month. (See tables A-1, 
A-2, and A-3.)

Among the unemployed, the number of job losers and persons who completed temporary 
jobs declined by 304,000 to 2.6 million in September, while the number of new entrants 
increased by 103,000 to 677,000. New entrants are unemployed persons who never 
previously worked. (See table A-11.)

In September, the number of persons unemployed for less than 5 weeks fell by 339,000 
to 1.9 million. The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks or more) 
was little changed at 1.3 million and accounted for 22.7 percent of the unemployed. 
(See table A-12.)

The labor force participation rate held at 63.2 percent in September. The employment-
population ratio, at 61.0 percent, was little changed over the month but was up by 
0.6 percentage point over the year. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to 
as involuntary part-time workers) was essentially unchanged at 4.4 million in September. 
These individuals, who would have preferred full-time employment, were working part time 
because their hours had been reduced or they were unable to find full-time jobs. 
(See table A-8.)

In September, 1.3 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force, down by 
278,000 from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) These individuals were 
not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had looked for a job 
sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed because they had not 
searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 321,000 discouraged workers in September, 
little changed from a year earlier. (Data are not seasonally adjusted.) Discouraged 
workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe no jobs are 
available for them. The remaining 978,000 persons marginally attached to the labor 
force in September had not searched for work for reasons such as school attendance or 
family responsibilities. (See table A-16.)
 
Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 136,000 in September. Job growth has 
averaged 161,000 per month thus far in 2019, compared with an average monthly gain 
of 223,000 in 2018. In September, employment continued to trend up in health care and in 
professional and business services. (See table B-1.)

In September, health care added 39,000 jobs, in line with its average monthly gain over 
the prior 12 months. Ambulatory health care services (+29,000) and hospitals (+8,000) 
added jobs over the month. 

Employment in professional and business services continued to trend up in September 
(+34,000). The industry has added an average of 35,000 jobs per month thus far in 2019, 
compared with 47,000 jobs per month in 2018.  

Employment in government continued on an upward trend in September (+22,000). Federal 
hiring for the 2020 Census was negligible (+1,000). Government has added 147,000 jobs 
over the past 12 months, largely in local government. 

Employment in transportation and warehousing edged up in September (+16,000). Within the 
industry, job growth occurred in transit and ground passenger transportation (+11,000) 
and in couriers and messengers (+4,000). 

Retail trade employment changed little in September (-11,000). Within the industry, 
clothing and clothing accessories stores lost 14,000 jobs, while food and beverage stores 
added 9,000 jobs. Since reaching a peak in January 2017, retail trade has lost 197,000 
jobs. 

Employment in other major industries, including mining, construction, manufacturing, 
wholesale trade, information, financial activities, and leisure and hospitality, showed 
little change over the month. 

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls, 
at $28.09, were little changed (-1 cent), after rising by 11 cents in August. Over the 
past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by 2.9 percent. In September, average 
hourly earnings of private-sector production and nonsupervisory employees rose by 4 cents 
to $23.65. (See tables B-3 and B-8.)

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls was unchanged at 34.4 
hours in September. In manufacturing, the average workweek and overtime remained at 40.5 
hours and 3.2 hours, respectively. The average workweek of private-sector production and 
nonsupervisory employees held at 33.6 hours. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised up by 7,000 from 
+159,000 to +166,000, and the change for August was revised up by 38,000 from +130,000 to 
+168,000. With these revisions, employment gains in July and August combined were 45,000 
more than previously reported. (Monthly revisions result from additional reports received 
from businesses and government agencies since the last published estimates and from the 
recalculation of seasonal factors.) After revisions, job gains have averaged 157,000 per 
month over the last 3 months.

_____________
The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, 
November 1, 2019, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).


 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

HOUSEHOLD DATA
Summary table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
Category Sept.
2018
July
2019
Aug.
2019
Sept.
2019
Change from:
Aug.
2019-
Sept.
2019

Employment status

Civilian noninstitutional population

258,290 259,225 259,432 259,638 206

Civilian labor force

162,055 163,351 163,922 164,039 117

Participation rate

62.7 63.0 63.2 63.2 0.0

Employed

156,069 157,288 157,878 158,269 391

Employment-population ratio

60.4 60.7 60.9 61.0 0.1

Unemployed

5,986 6,063 6,044 5,769 -275

Unemployment rate

3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 -0.2

Not in labor force

96,235 95,874 95,510 95,599 89

Unemployment rates

Total, 16 years and over

3.7 3.7 3.7 3.5 -0.2

Adult men (20 years and over)

3.4 3.4 3.4 3.2 -0.2

Adult women (20 years and over)

3.3 3.4 3.3 3.1 -0.2

Teenagers (16 to 19 years)

12.6 12.8 12.6 12.5 -0.1

White

3.3 3.3 3.4 3.2 -0.2

Black or African American

6.0 6.0 5.5 5.5 0.0

Asian

3.5 2.8 2.8 2.5 -0.3

Hispanic or Latino ethnicity

4.5 4.5 4.2 3.9 -0.3

Total, 25 years and over

3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 -0.1

Less than a high school diploma

5.6 5.1 5.4 4.8 -0.6

High school graduates, no college

3.7 3.6 3.6 3.6 0.0

Some college or associate degree

3.2 3.2 3.1 2.9 -0.2

Bachelor’s degree and higher

2.0 2.2 2.1 2.0 -0.1

Reason for unemployment

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs

2,796 2,798 2,876 2,572 -304

Job leavers

739 833 781 840 59

Reentrants

1,889 1,810 1,801 1,669 -132

New entrants

588 595 574 677 103

Duration of unemployment

Less than 5 weeks

2,065 2,201 2,207 1,868 -339

5 to 14 weeks

1,751 1,797 1,757 1,781 24

15 to 26 weeks

861 905 835 819 -16

27 weeks and over

1,379 1,166 1,243 1,314 71

Employed persons at work part time

Part time for economic reasons

4,656 3,984 4,381 4,350 -31

Slack work or business conditions

2,807 2,385 2,678 2,588 -90

Could only find part-time work

1,471 1,364 1,351 1,322 -29

Part time for noneconomic reasons

21,404 21,437 21,697 21,573 -124

Persons not in the labor force (not seasonally adjusted)

Marginally attached to the labor force

1,577 1,478 1,564 1,299

Discouraged workers

383 368 467 321

– Over-the-month changes are not displayed for not seasonally adjusted data.
NOTE: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

 

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t01.htm

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted

ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Summary table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
Category Sept.
2018
July
2019
Aug.
2019(P)
Sept.
2019(P)

EMPLOYMENT BY SELECTED INDUSTRY
(Over-the-month change, in thousands)

Total nonfarm

108 166 168 136

Total private

108 122 122 114

Goods-producing

38 -4 1 5

Mining and logging

3 -5 -5 0

Construction

17 -3 4 7

Manufacturing

18 4 2 -2

Durable goods(1)

14 2 0 -4

Motor vehicles and parts

2.8 -2.4 -1.3 -4.1

Nondurable goods

4 2 2 2

Private service-providing

70 126 121 109

Wholesale trade

2.0 5.2 0.0 2.4

Retail trade

-26.0 -2.0 -6.0 -11.4

Transportation and warehousing

23.2 -0.7 -4.1 15.7

Utilities

0.1 -0.8 -0.9 -1.8

Information

-4 -2 2 9

Financial activities

14 19 15 3

Professional and business services(1)

53 37 43 34

Temporary help services

13.7 -10.5 14.5 10.2

Education and health services(1)

25 76 56 40

Health care and social assistance

37.7 46.9 51.4 41.4

Leisure and hospitality

-24 -13 9 21

Other services

7 7 7 -3

Government

0 44 46 22

(3-month average change, in thousands)

Total nonfarm

189 135 171 157

Total private

176 121 135 119

WOMEN AND PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES
AS A PERCENT OF ALL EMPLOYEES(2)

Total nonfarm women employees

49.7 49.9 49.9 49.9

Total private women employees

48.3 48.5 48.5 48.6

Total private production and nonsupervisory employees

82.4 82.3 82.3 82.3

HOURS AND EARNINGS
ALL EMPLOYEES

Total private

Average weekly hours

34.5 34.3 34.4 34.4

Average hourly earnings

$27.30 $27.99 $28.10 $28.09

Average weekly earnings

$941.85 $960.06 $966.64 $966.30

Index of aggregate weekly hours (2007=100)(3)

110.0 110.9 111.4 111.5

Over-the-month percent change

0.0 -0.2 0.5 0.1

Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2007=100)(4)

143.6 148.4 149.6 149.7

Over-the-month percent change

0.3 0.1 0.8 0.1

DIFFUSION INDEX
(Over 1-month span)(5)

Total private (258 industries)

61.8 58.1 53.5 53.7

Manufacturing (76 industries)

63.2 52.6 52.0 44.7

Footnotes
(1) Includes other industries, not shown separately.
(2) Data relate to production employees in mining and logging and manufacturing, construction employees in construction, and nonsupervisory employees in the service-providing industries.
(3) The indexes of aggregate weekly hours are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate hours by the corresponding annual average aggregate hours.
(4) The indexes of aggregate weekly payrolls are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate weekly payrolls by the corresponding annual average aggregate weekly payrolls.
(5) Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.
(P) Preliminary

NOTE: Data have been revised to reflect March 2018 benchmark levels and updated seasonal adjustment factors.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.b.htm

 

Story 3: Senator Bernie Sanders Heat Attack Will Prevent Him From Winning The Presidential Nomination in 2019 — Senator Elizabeth Warren Most Likely Radical Extremist Democratic Socialist (REDS) Candidate for President in 2019 — Videos

Bernie Sanders, 78, is STILL in the hospital and canceling events after having two stents inserted in a blocked artery – but his wife insists he’ll be at Oct. 15 debate

  • Sanders called off appearances in South Carolina last month in the wake of a Democratic primary debate where his voice sounded strained
  • Now his campaign has canceled events because he was hospitalized for a blocked artery that required two stents 
  • Now his wife says he is still in the Las Vegas hospital and might leave by the end of the weekend; but he plans to be on the debate stage in Ohio in 12 days 
  • Sanders showed up at campaign events in March with a bandaged head after his campaign said he cut himself on a glass shower door 
  • The 78-year-old Vermont senator is the oldest person in the 2020 field and would be 83 at the end of his first term if he were to win the White House 
  • Jimmy Carter, 95, said last month that there should be an age limit, and he couldn’t have handled the job at age 80 
  • Hillary Clinton caused worry among Democrats in 2016 after collapsing at a 9/11 memorial service and wearing special glasses during a congressional hearing 

Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders hasn’t left the hospital since Tuesday night, and is still recovering from an operation to place two stents in a blocked artery.

But the 78-year-old socialist firebrand, the oldest person in the 2020 field, plans to be on stage for a Democratic presidential primary debate on October 15 in Ohio. 

‘Bernie is up and about, his wife Jane said in a statement. ‘Yesterday, he spent much of the day talking with staff about policies, cracking jokes with the nurses and doctors, and speaking with his family on the phone.’

‘His doctors are pleased with his progress, and there has been no need for any additional procedures,’ she said. ‘We expect Bernie will be discharged and on a plane back to Burlington before the end of the weekend. He’ll take a few days to rest, but he’s ready to get back out there and is looking forward to the October debate.’

Sanders canceled a string of presidential campaign events on Wednesday after suffering what a spokesman said was ‘chest discomfort’ that required the stents.
Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, pictured Sunday at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., hasn't left a Las Vegas hospital where he was treated for a blokced artery on Tuesday night

Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders, pictured Sunday at Dartmouth College in Hanover, N.H., hasn’t left a Las Vegas hospital where he was treated for a blokced artery on Tuesday night

Sanders' wife Jane (at right) said the senator has been cracking jokes with doctors and nurses, and speaking to family members on the phone, but isn't expected to leave the hospital for a few more days

The 78-year-old presidential candidate, the oldest in the 2020 field, will have to take it easy but expects to be home in Vermont by the end of the weekend

AGES OF THE 2020 CANDIDATES ON INAUGURATION DAY

As of September 20, 2019 there were 22 declared major party candidates in the 2020 presidential election, including 19 Democrats and three Republicans.

Here is the age each of them would be on Inauguration Day 2021 if he or she were to win:

  • Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders: 79 years, 4 months, 13 days
  • Former Vice President Joe Biden: 78 years, 2 months, 1 day
  • Former Massachusetts Gov. Bill Weld (R): 75 years, 5 months, 21 days
  • President Donald Trump (R): 74 years, 7 months, 7 days
  • Massachusetts Sen. Elizabeth Warren: 71 years, 6 months, 30 days 
  • Former Pennsylvania Rep. Joe Sestak: 69 years, 1 month, 9 days 
  • Author Marianne Williamson: 68 years, 6 months, 13 days
  • Billionaire activist Tom Steyer: 63 years, 6 months, 26 days  
  • Minnesota Sen. Amy Klobuchar: 60 years, 7 months, 27 days
  • Former Illinois Rep. Joe Walsh (R): 59 years, 25 days
  • Maryland Rep. John Delaney: 57 years, 9 months, 5 days
  • California Sen. Kamala Harris: 56 years, 3 months, 1 day
  • Colorado Sen. Michael Bennet: 56 years, 1 month, 25 days
  • Montana Gov. Steve Bullock: 54 years, 9 months, 11 days
  • New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker: 51 years, 8 months, 25 days
  • Former Texas Rep. Beto O’Rourke: 48 years, 3 months, 26 days
  • Ohio Rep. Tim Ryan: 47 years, 6 months, 5 days
  • Miramar, Florida Mayor Wayne Messam: 46 years, 7 months, 14 days
  • Former HUD Secretary Julián Castro: 46 years, 4 month, 5 days
  • Entrepreneur Andrew Yang: 46 years, 8 days  
  • Hawaii Rep. Tulsi Gabbard: 39 years, 9 months, 9 days
  • South Bend, Indiana Mayor Pete Buttigieg39 years, 2 days

Sanders showed up at a Charleston, South Carolina event in March with a bandaged head for what his campaign said was a cut from a glass shower door

Sanders showed up at a Charleston, South Carolina event in March with a bandaged head for what his campaign said was a cut from a glass shower door

Senior adviser Jeff Weaver said in a statement Wednesday that ‘[f]ollowing medical evaluation and testing he was found to have blockage in one artery and two stents were inserted.’

‘Sen. Sanders is conversing and in good spirits. He will be resting up over the next few days, Weaver added. ‘We are canceling his events and appearances until further notice, and we will continue to provide appropriate updates.’

Sanders updated his supporters on Wednesday and took the opportunity to tout his single-payer ‘Medicare for All’ proposal.

‘Thanks for all the well wishes,’ he wrote. ‘I’m feeling good. I’m fortunate to have good health care and great doctors and nurses helping me to recover. None of us know when a medical emergency might affect us. And no one should fear going bankrupt if it occurs. Medicare for All!’

The Sanders campaign on Wednesday also canceled at least $1.3 million in ad spending that was scheduled to buy time on Iowa television and radio stations.

Sanders released a doctor’s note during the 2016 presidential campaign saying that he had no history of heart disease and was otherwise in good health.

U.S. doctors insert about 2 million stents per year into patients, according to Harvard Medical School. It’s a procedure the American Heart Association describes as ‘fairly common’ and says carries fewer complication risks than open-heart bypass surgery.

But the American Medical Association issued a report in 2013 that included stenting among the most highly ‘overused’ medical treatments.

Sanders has canceled campaign events before.

His campaign called off appearances in South Carolina last month in the wake of a Democratic primary debate where his voice sounded strained.

Sanders updated his supporters on Wednesday and took the opportunity to tout the single-payer 'Medicare for All' proposal

Bernie Sanders addressed a crowd of supporters on Monday at an American Legion post in Hooksett, New Hampshire

After this appearance in New Hampshire, Sanders flew to Nevada and soon after began experiencing chest pains

Bernie Sanders alternated between gruff and gleeful during a public campaign event Monday in Hooksett, new Hampshire

Democratic presidnetial candidates have had campaign health scares before: Hillary Clinton raised fears in 2016, collapsing at a 9/11 memorial event in New York City

Democratic presidnetial candidates have had campaign health scares before: Hillary Clinton raised fears in 2016, collapsing at a 9/11 memorial event in New York City

In March he showed up at South Carolina campaign events with a bandaged head after treatment for what his campaign said was a cut that he suffered in the shower.

He received a half-dozen stitches at a walk-in medical clinic.

The cantankerous senator would be 83 years old at the end of his first term in office if he were to win the White House.

Former President Jimmy Carter, who turned 95 this week, said in September that ‘I hope there’s an age limit’ for the presidency.

‘If I were just 80 years old, if I was 15 years younger, I don’t believe I could undertake the duties I experienced when I was president,’ he said.

WHAT IS A STENT? AND WHY WOULD A PATIENT GET MORE THAN ONE AT A TIME?

by Mia de Graaf, US Health Editor

Stents hold arteries open to help improve blood flow to the heart and relieve chest pain.

Past president of the American Heart Association, Dr Sidney Smith, MD, told DailyMail.com how stents work and when they are placed.

HOW IS THE PROCEDURE PERFORMED?

A stent is a wire mesh tube that props open arteries.

To open the narrowed artery, the surgeon may perform what’s known as an angioplasty.

It involves making a small incision in a patient’s arm or leg, through which a wire with an attached deflated balloon is thread through up to the coronary arteries.

In some cases, this is all that’s needed to break up the blockage, without putting any permanent artery-openers in place.

Surgeons will sometimes put in a stent, however, to keep the arteries held open.

The stent surrounds the balloon and expands with it when it is inflated.

After the balloon has been deflated and removed, the stent stays in the artery permanently.

A stent is a wire mesh tube used to prop open an artery during an angioplasty. Once the balloon is removed, the stent remains to keep the artery open

A stent is a wire mesh tube used to prop open an artery during an angioplasty. Once the balloon is removed, the stent remains to keep the artery open

HOW COMMON IS IT?

Angioplasties are increasingly common in the United States and Mexico due to rising rates of heart issues.

And stents are becoming increasingly common in angioplasty patients, since it is very common for the arteries to narrow again if nothing is put in place (this is known as restenosis, and happens in about a third of cases).

CAN IT BE PERFORMED DAYS OR WEEKS AFTER A HEART ATTACK?

Yes, depending on what kind of heart attack was suffered.

There are two kinds of blockages: a STEMI (which is a complete blockage) and an NSTEMI (a partial blockage).

STEMI stands for ‘ST-elevation myocardial infarction’, which means the patient has suffered cardiac enzyme changes, and changes to their electrical heart activity, as seen on an EKG scan.

A non-STEMI heart attack, or NSTEMI heart attack, is less urgent. It means they suffered enzyme changes but no changes on their EKG.

‘A STEMI is a very big, severe heart attack where a patient comes into the emergency room and the artery is totally blocked, and needs to be opened up straight away and the stent is placed,’ Dr Smith, Professor of Medicine, Cardiology, University of North Carolina School of Medicine, explained.

‘That’s the patient that goes direct into surgery.’

‘In other cases, the patient may have a non-STEMI. They may have chest pain, and they come into the hospital with enzyme changes but no changes on their EKG [electrical activity of the heart]. The need is not urgent. Stents are placed but it can be days later.’

WHY WOULD A PATIENT GET MORE THAN ONE STENT AT A TIME?

It depends how many blockages they had, or how many vessels were affected.

‘The decision to place stents in the coronary arteries is based on the number of significant blockages that’s there,’ Dr Smith explained.

‘Three is not out of the ordinary. Sometimes you place just one, sometimes two or three – it completely depends.

‘You place stents where there is a significant blockage. It could be that there were two or three vessels involved, or three blockages in one vessel. That would warrant three stents.’

He adds that the amount of blockages has nothing to do with the severity of the heart attack, or whether it would be a STEMI or NSTEMI.

HOW IS THE RECOVERY?

For patients being treated for chest pain, most are usually able to go home the same day of the operation. Patients are often advised to avoid strenuous activities and driving for at least a week.

But Dr Smith said it depends on each patient, and particularly on whether they have other underlying health issues.

‘It depends on how well their heart is pumping,’ Dr Smith said.

‘Patients are often able to go home within 24 hours, usually into cardiac rehabilitation.’

As for the patient taking a trans-Atlantic flight, Dr Smith said that would have to be decided on a case-by-case basis.

‘It depends on how they’re doing, and how long the flight is,’ he said.

  • Any reader who thinks they may be suffering a heart attack, or may have suffered one, should never diagnose themselves. Always call 911 if you think you might be having a heart attack. The EMS crew in your ambulance will route you to the right hospital based on your location

Story 4: President Trump Goes After The Black American Vote by Addressing The Young Black Leadership Summit 2019 — Videos

Live: Trump delivers remarks at the Young Black Leadership Summit 2019

 

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The Pronk Pops Show 1313, August 28, 2019, Story 1: Tropical Storm Dorian Headed For Puerto Rico Could Hit All of Florida and Bahama Islands As Category 3 or 4 Hurricane — Trump Tweets Puerto Rico Most Corrupt — Videos — Story 2: Trump Administration Tightens Citizenship Rules of U.S. Military and Government Employees For Their Children Born Abroad — Videos

Posted on August 30, 2019. Filed under: Addiction, American History, Blogroll, Breaking News, Bribery, Bribes, Budgetary Policy, Business, Cartoons, Climate, Climate Change, Communications, Congress, Corruption, Countries, Crime, Culture, Donald J. Trump, Donald Trump, Economics, Economics, Education, Elections, Employment, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, Foreign Policy, Freedom of Speech, Germany, Government, Government Dependency, History, House of Representatives, Human, Human Behavior, Illegal Immigration, Immigration, Independence, Japan, Labor Economics, Law, Legal Immigration, Life, Lying, Media, Mike Pompeo, Military Spending, Monetary Policy, News, People, Philosophy, Photos, Politics, Progressives, Psychology, Radio, Raymond Thomas Pronk, Regulation, Senate, Social Sciences, Success, Tax Policy, Trump Surveillance/Spying, Turkey, Unemployment, United States of America, Videos, Vietnam, Violence, War, Wealth, Weather, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

 

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Story 1: Tropical Storm Dorian Headed For Puerto Rico Could Hit All of Florida and Bahama Islands As Category 3 or 4 Hurricane — Trump Tweets Puerto Rico Most Corrupt — Storm Dorain Upgraded to Category 1 Hurricane — Videos

See the source image

See the source image

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UPDATED Tuesday, Setember 3, 2019

The 2 PM Advisory on Hurricane Dorian has been released

Tropical weather forecast & Dorian midday update: Sept. 3, 2019

Hurricane Dorian stalls off Florida coast

Erosion still major concern for South Florida beaches due to Hurricane Dorian

Hurricane Dorian 5 a.m. advisory Sept. 3

Florida locals hunker down despite Hurricane Dorian evacuation order

UPDATED Friday, August 30, 2019

 

5 PM Advisory for Hurricane Dorian – Friday, August 30

Hurricane Dorian on track to strike Florida as a Category 4 storm

King tides bring flooding to South Florida ahead of Dorian

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See the source image

Dorian hits Puerto Rico as a Category 1 hurricane

Dorian Takes Aim At Puerto Rico, Could Hit Florida as a Hurricane | Storm Team 4

Tropical Storm Dorian heads toward Puerto Rico, may hit Florida next

Hurricane Dorian Scenarios: Breaking Down Storm’s Path, Storm Surge, Euro Model | NBC 6

Published on Aug 30, 2019

Meteorologist Angie Lassman breaks down various Hurricane Dorian scenarios as the storm continues to churn toward the state. (Note: This video was recorded at 1 p.m. on Friday, August 30th and references the 11 a.m. Hurricane Dorian advisory. For real-time updates on Hurricane Dorian, go here: http://on.nbc6.com/b2IaPO5)

Trump and San Juan mayor trade blows ahead of Dorian

Published on Aug 28, 2019

Mayor Carmen Yulin Cruz takes issue with Trump’s claim that Congress approved $92 billion for Puerto Rico; chief White House correspondent John Roberts reports. #SpecialReport #FoxNews

‘I’m the best thing that’s ever happened to Puerto Rico!’ Trump says

Nightly News Broadcast (Full) – August 28, 2019 | NBC Nightly News

Why Hurricane Categories Make a Difference

Hurricane Size Comparison

Tropical Storm Dorian to hit Puerto Rico, on track to hit Florida

Hurricane Dorian heads toward Florida, gaining strength

Trump slams ‘corrupt’ Puerto Rico

Trump Calls Puerto Rico “Corrupt” As Storm Dorian Heads For Island

Trump calls Puerto Rico ‘one of the most corrupt places on Earth’

San Juan mayor responds to Trump calling her ‘incompetent’

Published on Apr 2, 2019

Carmen Yulín Cruz, mayor of San Juan, Puerto Rico, speaks with CNN’s Erin Burnett after President Donald Trump called her “crazed and incompetent” on Twitter. #CNN #News

Trump says Puerto Rican leaders are ’totally unable’ to handle disaster

Published on Sep 29, 2017

On Sept. 29, President Trump said that “the government of Puerto Rico will have to work with us to determine how this massive rebuilding effort…will be funded and organized and what we will do with the tremendous amount of existing debt already on the island.” Subscribe to The Washington

Tracking Hurricane Dorian: What Makes The Storm’s Path So Unusual? | NBC 6

Published on Aug 29, 2019

Hurricane Dorian could become a Category 4 storm before it makes landfall in Florida. NBC 6 meteorologist Steve MacLaughlin with the latest.

 

 

Tropical Storm Dorian to hit Puerto Rico, on track to hit Florida

 

Puerto Rico Braces for Tropical Storm as Trump Attacks Island on Twitter

The news comes as Puerto Rico is bracing for Tropical Storm Dorian, which could make a direct hit on the island and strengthen into a hurricane later today. Governor Wanda Vázquez has declared a state of emergency for the island. On Tuesday, Trump used the impending storm to take a jab at Puerto Rico, tweeting, “Wow! Yet another big storm heading to Puerto Rico. Will it ever end? Congress approved 92 Billion Dollars for Puerto Rico last year, an all time record of its kind for ‘anywhere.’” San Juan mayor and vocal Trump critic Carmen Yulín Cruz responded by saying in a CNN interview, “[Trump’s] behavior, his lack of understanding … is ludicrous. Three thousand Puerto Ricans did not open their eyes this morning because this racist man did not have it within him to do his job. So, get out of the way, President Trump, and let the people who can do the job get the job done.” The 3,000 people is referring to the death toll from 2017’s devastating Hurricane Maria.

 

UPDATED Thursday, August 29, 2019

NASA releases ISS footage of Hurricane Dorian churning over the Atlantic as forecasters warn the storm is set to strengthen to a monster Category 4 and batter Florida with 130MPH winds on Labor Day

  • Incredible footage from the International Space Station shows Hurricane Dorian swirling in the Atlantic 
  • The footage shows Dorian strengthening at 1.05pm EDT on Thursday north of Puerto Rico  
  • Hurricane Dorian, a Category 1 storm, is set to escalate into a Category 4 as it crosses warm Atlantic waters
  • The hurricane is expected to make landfall on Florida’s eastern coast by Labor Day Monday
  • As of 11am EDT Thursday, Dorian is in open waters blowing at 85mph, 220 miles northwest of San Juan 
  • Hurricane Dorian made landfall on the Virgin Islands Wednesday at 2pm EDT, causing power outages
  • The National Hurricane Center predicts Dorian could hit Florida as soon as late Sunday or early Monday
  • Gov Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency and urged residents to prepare for a Labor Day strike
  • Dorian caused some flooding and damage across the Caribbean earlier this week
  • It was expected to hit Puerto Rico on Wednesday but passed to the east of the territory, leaving it unscathed 
  • Donald Trump shared a warning to Floridians Thursday morning saying: ‘It will be a very big Hurricane’ 
  • Thursday afternoon he cancelled his trip to Poland in light of the hurricane 
  • Florida is not currently under any watches or warnings and no evacuations have been ordered yet  

Stunning footage from outer space shows Hurricane Dorian in all its might, swirling towards Florida, where it’s forecast to make landfall on Labor Day Monday as a monster Category 4 storm.

The footage was taken by a NASA camera outside the International Space Station and shows Dorian at 1.05pm EDT strengthening as it menacingly churns in the Atlantic ocean just north of Puerto Rico, headed towards the northern Bahamas and Florida’s eastern coast.

It is expected to intensify into a Category 3 storm by Friday and could strengthen into a Category 4 with vicious 130mph winds in the following days.

On Wednesday Dorian was upgraded from a tropical storm to a hurricane and briefly made landfall in the Virgin Islands and impacted small Puerto Rican islands, causing power outages and minor flooding.

Once Dorian escalated into a hurricane, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency on Wednesday urging residents to stock up on a week’s worth of supplies, leading Floridians to clean out grocery stores, stock up on gasoline, and protect their homes with aluminum panels.

An update from the National Hurricane Center at 8am EST on Thursday warned that tropical force winds from Dorian, which is currently a Category 1 storm, could start to hit parts of Florida as early as Saturday evening and the hurricane could make landfall by late Sunday or early Monday.

Stunning footage from outer space shows Hurricane Dorian in all its might, swirling towards Florida, where it's forecast to make landfall on Labor Day Monday as a monster Category 4 storm. This was shot from the International Space Station Thursday afternoon

Hurricane Dorian is pictured Thursday in this satellite image as it barrels past Puerto Rico, sparing the island, and heads towards the northern Bahamas and Florida's east coast, leading Florida to declare a state of emergency

On Thursday morning Governor Ron DeSantis urged locals to stock up on seven days worth of food, water and medicine

On Thursday morning Governor Ron DeSantis urged locals to stock up on seven days worth of food, water and medicine

Preparing for the storm: Florida residents in Casselberry started to fill sand bags in preparation for Hurricane Dorian's blow

Preparing for the storm: Florida residents in Casselberry started to fill sand bags in preparation for Hurricane Dorian’s blow

The storm is predicted to escalate to a Category 4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Florida's eastern coast

The storm is predicted to escalate to a Category 4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall in Florida’s eastern coast

Stocking up: Locals flocked to groceries store to heed officials warnings and buy enough food and water for the week

Stocking up: Locals flocked to groceries store to heed officials warnings and buy enough food and water for the week

Florida residents in Orlando stocked up on propane gas in anticipation of the potentially Category 4 hurricane

Florida residents in Orlando stocked up on propane gas in anticipation of the potentially Category 4 hurricane

This updated graphic released Thursday at 11 EST shows the predicted trajectory of the hurricane which is expected to make landfall either late Sunday or early Monday

This updated graphic released Thursday at 11 EST shows the predicted trajectory of the hurricane which is expected to make landfall either late Sunday or early Monday

‘This could be the strongest hurricane to hit Central Florida in over 30 years,’ Fox 35 Orlando meteorologist Glenn Richards said. ‘Hurricane force sustained winds would be carried across the entire width of the state if the current forecast holds.’

President Donald Trump tweeted on Thursday morning: ‘Puerto Rico is in great shape with Hurricane Dorian taking a largely different route than anticipated. Thank you to FEMA, first responders, and all, for working so hard & being so well prepared. A great result! The bad news, Florida get ready! Storm is building and will be BIG!

‘Hurricane Dorian looks like it will be hitting Florida late Sunday night. Be prepared and please follow State and Federal instructions, it will be a very big Hurricane, perhaps one of the biggest!’

Thursday afternoon he cancelled his trip to Poland in light of the hurricane and announced he’ll send Vice President Mike Pence in his place.

‘It’s something very important for me to be here,’ he said. ‘The storm looks like it could be a very big one indeed.’

Florida is not currently under any watches or warnings and no evacuations have been ordered yet.

There’s an ‘increasing likelihood of life-threatening storm surge along portions of the Florida east coast and devastating hurricane-force winds,’ NHC warned Thursday.

As of 11AM EDT on Thursday morning, Dorian was located in the open Atlantic blowing at maximum sustained winds of 85mph, some 220 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico.

Wednesday evening the storm clocked 80mph winds moving northwest at about 13mph and passed Puerto Rico, sparing the island from another disaster as it still reels from 2017’s Hurricane Maria.

President Donald Trump tweeted on Thursday morning: 'Puerto Rico is in great shape with Hurricane Dorian taking a largely different route than anticipated. Thank you to FEMA, first responders, and all, for working so hard & being so well prepared. A great result! The bad news, Florida get ready! Storm is building and will be BIG! Hurricane Dorian looks like it will be hitting Florida late Sunday night. Be prepared and please follow State and Federal instructions, it will be a very big Hurricane, perhaps one of the biggest!'
President Trump tweet

President Donald Trump tweeted on Thursday morning: ‘Puerto Rico is in great shape with Hurricane Dorian taking a largely different route than anticipated. Thank you to FEMA, first responders, and all, for working so hard & being so well prepared. A great result! The bad news, Florida get ready! Storm is building and will be BIG! Hurricane Dorian looks like it will be hitting Florida late Sunday night. Be prepared and please follow State and Federal instructions, it will be a very big Hurricane, perhaps one of the biggest!’

Cleaned out:  Floridians listened to official orders to prepare for the worst and stock up on water, food and medicine that would last for seven days

Cleaned out:  Floridians listened to official orders to prepare for the worst and stock up on water, food and medicine that would last for seven days

Pictures from Port Orange, Florida show an emptied out produce department at a local Walmart as locals prepare to face the possible Category 4 hurricane

Pictures from Port Orange, Florida show an emptied out produce department at a local Walmart as locals prepare to face the possible Category 4 hurricane

This store in David, Florida actually ran out of water when hordes of locals stocked up on bottled water for the hurricane

This store in David, Florida actually ran out of water when hordes of locals stocked up on bottled water for the hurricane

Shoppers pictured above waiting to see if this Davie, Florida Costco will restock on water bottles

Preparing for the worst: This man in Indian Harbor, Florida is seen putting aluminum panels on his house in Melbourne Florida on Thursday to brace for Hurricane Dorian's impact

Bracing for impact: These two Florida residents are seen putting aluminum panels on a hose in Melbourne, Florida on Thursday after Governor DeSantis declared a state of emergency on Wednesday

Bracing for impact: These two Florida residents are seen putting aluminum panels on a hose in Melbourne, Florida on Thursday after Governor DeSantis declared a state of emergency on Wednesday

Dozens of residents headed to this local gas station on Thursday in Miami to stock up on gas before the hurricane hits

This man in Hialeah, Florida filled multiple containers with gasoline in anticipation of the storm

This man in Hialeah, Florida filled multiple containers with gasoline in anticipation of the storm

Rolling Stones forced to change tour date as Florida braces for Hurricane Dorian

The Rolling Stones have been forced to rescheduled their Miami Gardens performance as Florida braces for Hurricane Dorian.

The concert, originally scheduled for Saturday, August 31 at the Hard Rock Stadium, has been moved up a day to Friday, August 30.

On Thursday, lead singer Jagger was spotted with his wife, Melanie Hamrick, son Deveraux and bandmates Keith Richards and Ronnie Wood on their Miami hotel balcony looking out at the gloomy day.

Mick Jagger was spotted at a Miami hotel on Thursday after his band the Rolling Stones announced they were rescheduling their Saturday concert because of the threat of Hurricane Dorian

Mick Jagger was spotted at a Miami hotel on Thursday after his band the Rolling Stones announced they were rescheduling their Saturday concert because of the threat of Hurricane Dorian

Family plans: He was joined by wife Melanie Hamrick, 32, and son Deveraux, 2

Family plans: He was joined by wife Melanie Hamrick, 32, and son Deveraux, 2

Keith Richards, 75, seen wearing a pair of leopard print boxers and a t-shirt that said 'Do not x-ray'

Taking a peek: Ronnie Wood, 72, peeked down at the ground below him

Keith Richards, 75, (left) was seen wearing a pair of leopard print boxers and a T-shirt that said ‘Do not x-ray’. Ronnie Wood, 72, is seen right

The concert, originally scheduled for Saturday, August 31 at the Hard Rock Stadium, has been moved up a day to Friday, August 30

Due to the last minute change, Latin rock star Juanes will not be able to be there to perform, meaning the band will have no opening act.

The announcement was posted to their official Instagram page on Thursday.

‘Due to the weather forecast, the Rolling Stones show scheduled for Saturday, August 31 at the Hard Rock Stadium has been moved to tomorrow night, Friday, August 30. All tickets will be honored for the new date. There will be no opening act – doors will open at 6:00PM ET, and Stones will go on at 8:30PM ET,’ the announcement read.

‘Ticket holders will be receiving an email from Ticketmaster with more information. #stonesnofilter #therollingstones #Miami,’ they added.

The official NHC forecast predicts the storm will grow into a Category 4 storm and will hit the coast late Sunday or early Monday.

‘Dorian’s small size makes it susceptible to rapid intensification. This could occur when it moves past Puerto Rico and frees itself from dry air. These quick bursts of rapid intensification are difficult to forecast,’ according to weather.com.

‘All indications are that by this Labor Day weekend, a powerful hurricane will be near or over the Florida peninsula,’ the NHC in Miami said in an advisory.

NHC also warned early Thursday that heavy rain from Dorian could cause ‘life-threatening flash floods’ in parts of the Bahamas and southeastern U.S. coast.

The 500-mile cone of uncertainty indicates that it could be anywhere from coastal southern Georgia to the Florida keys.

On Wednesday Dorian was upgraded from a tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane and made landfall in the Virgin Islands. The flooded city of Tortola in the Virgin Islands pictured above

On Wednesday Dorian was upgraded from a tropical storm to a Category 1 hurricane and made landfall in the Virgin Islands. The flooded city of Tortola in the Virgin Islands pictured above 

A washed up boat lies on the shore after Dorian slammed St. Thomas of the Virgin Islands on Wednesday

A washed up boat lies on the shore after Dorian slammed St. Thomas of the Virgin Islands on Wednesday

Dorian was expected to hit Puerto Rico on Wednesday but passed to the east of the territory, leaving it unscathed

Dorian was expected to hit Puerto Rico on Wednesday but passed to the east of the territory, leaving it unscathed. Locals are seen waiting for the storm to arrive in San Juan

Safe: Puerto Rico was hit with just a bit of rain as Dorian approached its northeast region but didn't make landfall. A flooded road in Canovanas on the island pictured above

Safe: Puerto Rico was hit with just a bit of rain as Dorian approached its northeast region but didn’t make landfall. A flooded road in Canovanas on the island pictured above 

Governor Ron DeSantis spoke at the National Hurricane Center on Thursday to urge locals to prepare saying: ‘Be prepared for a lot of water. You should have seven days of food, medicine and water as a part of your plan.’

Also on Thursday he declared a state of emergency for all 67 Florida counties – up from the 26 counties announced yesterday.

Some grocery stores reported that their stock of bottle water and other supplies has already taken a hit, according to the Orlando Sentinel.  The U.S. Coast Guard has also warned all pleasure boats at the Port of Key West to seek safe harbor.

The Florida Department of Emergency Management tweeted a lengthy checklist of supplies to have on hand on Wednesday.

The University of Central Florida, where fall semester classes just started Monday, has urged students living on campus to prepare to move to safer off-campus locations if the storm continues on its projected track.

In East Orange County, officials handed out shovels and bags on Wednesday for residents to make their own sandbags. By late afternoon nearly 7,000 bags had been filled, the Sentinel reported.

In this latest National Hurricane Center update the Bahamas and Florida east coast are predicted to be hit by the hurricane. Dorian will bring along with it heavy rains to the southeastern US later this week into next week

In this latest National Hurricane Center update the Bahamas and Florida east coast are predicted to be hit by the hurricane. Dorian will bring along with it heavy rains to the southeastern US later this week into next week

This graphic shows the tropical-storm-force winds that whip through Florida, hitting early Saturday ahead of the hurricane's landfall

This graphic shows the tropical-storm-force winds that whip through Florida, hitting early Saturday ahead of the hurricane’s landfall

Tropical Storm Dorian was upgraded to a hurricane on Wednesday as winds reached a peak of 75mph

Tropical Storm Dorian was upgraded to a hurricane on Wednesday as winds reached a peak of 75mph

Only a few hurricanes have made landfall in Florida on its East Coast. This map shows some of those rare storms. An unnamed hurricane struck Palm Beach County in 1949, in 1992 the notorious Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Miami-Dade County, in 2004 Hurricane Jeanne hit Martin County and in 2005 Hurricane Katrina broke land in Broward County

Only a few hurricanes have made landfall in Florida on its East Coast. This map shows some of those rare storms. An unnamed hurricane struck Palm Beach County in 1949, in 1992 the notorious Hurricane Andrew made landfall in Miami-Dade County, in 2004 Hurricane Jeanne hit Martin County and in 2005 Hurricane Katrina broke land in Broward County

Cruise lines operating out of Port Canaveral are adjusting schedules to keep boat traffic to a minimum.

Martin County schools canceled all school-related activities through Monday.

Weekend Breakdown of Hurricane Dorian

Through Friday: The eye of Dorian is expected to hit the east and north of Turks and Caicos and the southeastern Bahamas

Saturday: Dorian will potentially impact the northwest Bahamas. Tropical winds will hit Florida

Sunday – Monday: Dorian with make landfall the Southeast U.S., most likely in Florida

Source: Weather.com 

Governor Ron DeSantis spoke at the National Hurricane Center on Thursday to urge locals to prepare saying: ‘Be prepared for a lot of water. You should have seven days of food, medicine and water as a part of your plan.’

Now on the Space Coast, companies like NASA, SpaceX and ULA are working to secure their launch pads and million-dollar equipment as they brace for Dorian’s wrath.

Teams at the Kennedy Space Center and Cape Canaveral Air Force Station are working to move a $650million mobile launcher, which attaches to a rocket and prepares it for launch. It’s going to be used to launch NASA’s upcoming rocket the Space Launch System and astronaut capsule Orion for upcoming moon missions, according to the Orlando Sentinel.

Elon Musk’s Space X also started to move its fleet of rocket recovery vehicles away from the Space coast.

When Dorian barrels the coast, the space center facilities would be hit first. Space companies have already suffered devastating damage from Hurricane Matthew in 2016 and Hurricane Frances in 2004, which toppled a rocket.

This map shows that Hurricane Dorian is predicted to hit Miami at 125mph in the early hours of Monday and will move inwards towards Melbourne and Fort Myers Tuesday morning at reduced 85mph speeds

This map shows that Hurricane Dorian is predicted to hit Miami at 125mph in the early hours of Monday and will move inwards towards Melbourne and Fort Myers Tuesday morning at reduced 85mph speeds

As of Thursday 11am EDT Hurricane Dorian was located 220 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico travelling at 13mph with 85mph winds

As of Thursday 11am EDT Hurricane Dorian was located 220 miles northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico travelling at 13mph with 85mph winds

This map shows the rain forecast with the hurricane, that'll bring up to three inches of rain to Florida through Sunday

This map shows the rain forecast with the hurricane, that’ll bring up to three inches of rain to Florida through Sunday

The Florida Department of Emergency Management tweeted a lengthy checklist of supplies to have on hand on Wednesday

The Florida Department of Emergency Management tweeted a lengthy checklist of supplies to have on hand on Wednesday

Some meteorologists expressed concern that as Dorian moves into the warm waters of the Gulf Stream and gains momentum it could actually reach a Category 4 storm, echoing the last-minute intensification of Hurricane Andrew in August 1992 that escalated into a Category 5 status just prior to making landfall in South Florida.

On Wednesday lightening was detected int he eye of the hurricane – a sign of rapid strengthening.

Dorian left some damage in its wake as it carved its way across the Caribbean as a tropical storm.

On Wednesday Dorian at 2pm EDT Dorian made landfall on Saint Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands as a Category 1 hurricane with 75mph winds, causing power outages and minor flooding.

At that time Saint Thomas was in the developing northern eyewall of Dorian, according to WUnderground.

President Donald Trump issued an emergency declaration Wednesday night for the U.S. Virgin Islands, ordering federal assistance with disaster relief for the U.S. territory. He also offered a similar declaration for Puerto Rico, offering federal assistance for local authorities.

Power outages and flooding were reported across the US Virgin Islands, the British Virgin Islands and the Puerto Rican islands of Vieques and Culebra after Dorian hit St Thomas as a Category 1 storm.

‘We’re happy because there are no damages to report,’ Culebra Mayor William Solís told The Associated Press, noting that only one community lost power.

Meanwhile, Dorian caused an island-wide blackout in St Thomas and St John in the US Virgin Islands, and scattered power outages in St Croix, government spokesman Richard Motta told AP.

In addition, the storm downed trees and at least one electric post in St Thomas, he said, adding that there were no reports of major flooding.

‘We are grateful that it wasn’t a stronger storm,’ he said.

There were no immediate reports of damage in the British Virgin Islands, where Gov Augustus Jaspert said crews were already clearing roads and inspecting infrastructure by late Wednesday afternoon.

Dorian battered the island of St Thomas on Wednesday, causing widespread power outages and leveling trees

Dorian battered the island of St Thomas on Wednesday, causing widespread power outages and leveling trees

Local woman Kim Pemberton shared video showing Tortola in the Virgin Islands being barreled by Dorian as it hit Wednesday

Heavy rain and winds are seen impacting the city

Dorian appears to have largely spared Puerto Rico, passing over the top of the US territory that is still recovering from a powerful storm two years ago.

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami said the hurricane watch and tropical storm warning for the island had been lifted, and that ‘Dorian continues to move away from Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.’

‘The threat has already passed,’ Puerto Rico’s new governor, Wanda Vazquez, told a news conference.

Vazquez announced that schools would reopen and people should return to work from Thursday. She said the storm had given the island a chance to evaluate its hurricane response.

‘These days have been a real exercise where we have been able to re-evaluate and make adjustments in all our responses to protect the people of Puerto Rico,’ she said.

Now meteorologists say severe weather could batter the southeast Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands on Friday.

On Wednesday President Donald Trump was blasted for transferring disaster-relief funds to border control efforts.

On Wednesday as Trump announced FEMA relief for Puerto Rico, he refueled his feud with San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz, calling her 'incompetent'
Cruz also had some sharp words for the president saying 'hope we do not see any insulting references to the people of Florida or self aggrandizement tweets'

On Wednesday as Trump announced FEMA relief for Puerto Rico, he refueled his feud with San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz. He said: ‘FEMA and all others are ready, and will do a great job. When they do, let them know it, and give them a big Thank You – Not like last time. That includes from the incompetent Mayor of San Juan!’

The Trump administration announced in July in a notification to Congress that it will move $155 million from FEMA’s disaster-relief fund to pay for border enforcement efforts.

On Wednesday Agriculture Commissioner Nikki Fried – Florida’s only statewide elected Democrat – berated Trump for moving the funds as Hurricane Dorian barrels towards Florida.

‘The President must be out of his mind if he thinks it’s a good idea to shift funds out of @FEMA for immigrant detention at the border while a potential Category 3 Hurricane #Dorian bears down on the United States,’ she wrote.

‘We don’t need those funds diverted to fuel a xenophobic agenda,’ she added.

On Wednesday as Trump announced FEMA relief for Puerto Rico, he refueled his feud with San Juan Mayor Carmen Yulín Cruz saying  FEMA and all others are ready, and will do a great job. When they do, let them know it, and give them a big Thank You – Not like last time. That includes from the incompetent Mayor of San Juan!’

'The threat has already passed,' Puerto Rico's new governor, Wanda Vazquez (center), told a news conference in the evening

The threat has already passed,’ Puerto Rico’s new governor, Wanda Vazquez (center), told a news conference in the evening

The storm was expected to pass over or near Puerto Rico on Wednesday. People are seen gathered at the coast of Patillas

The storm was expected to pass over or near Puerto Rico on Wednesday. People are seen gathered at the coast of Patillas

Residents of Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, are seen boarding up their windows to protect against potentially disastrous winds

 

Residents of Yabucoa, Puerto Rico, are seen boarding up their windows to protect against potentially disastrous winds

Florida’s most destructive hurricanes

Hurricane Andrew: This powerful Category 5 Atlantic hurricane battered the Bahamas, Florida and Louisiana in August 1992.

At the time it was the most destructive hurricane to ever hit Florida where it made landfall with wind speeds as high as 165mph, killing 65 people and causing $27.3billion in damage.

Homestead Florida residents picking through the debris left in the wake of the deadly Hurricane Andrew on August 24, 1992

 

Homestead Florida residents picking through the debris left in the wake of the deadly Hurricane Andrew on August 24, 1992

Hurricane Irma: Irma was the strongest observed hurricane in the Atlantic causing at least 134 deaths in September 2017.

This Category 5 hurricane hit the Leeward Islands, the northeastern Caribbean and the Florida Keys.

Trees pictured bent in Hurricane Irma on Sept 10 2017 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida

 

Trees pictured bent in Hurricane Irma on Sept 10 2017 in Fort Lauderdale, Florida

Hurricane Michael: This category 5 hurricane was the first to strike the contiguous United States since Andrew in 1992.

The October 2018 storm killed 74 – including 59 in the U.S. and 15 in Central America.

It reached peak winds of 160mph before it made landfall near Mexico Beach, Florida 

A damaged home in Mexico Beach, Florida pictured above in the wake of Hurricane Michael

 

A damaged home in Mexico Beach, Florida pictured above in the wake of Hurricane Michael

Hurricane Dorian

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Hurricane Dorian 2
Current storm status
Category 2 hurricane (1-min mean)
Dorian Geostationary VIS-IR September 2 1530Z.jpg

Satellite image
05L 2019 5day.png

Forecast map
As of: 2:00 p.m. EDT (18:00 UTC) September 3
Location: 27.5°N 78.7°W ± 15 nm
About 65 mi (105 km) N of Freeport, Bahamas
About 105 mi (170 km) E of Fort Pierce, FL
Sustained winds: 95 kn (110 mph; 175 km/h) (1-min mean)
gusting to 115 kn (130 mph; 215 km/h)
Pressure: 959 mbar (28.32 inHg)
Movement: NW at 4 kn (5 mph; 7 km/h)
See more detailed information.

Hurricane Dorian is a strong tropical cyclone currently affecting the Bahamas and the Southeastern United States. The fourth named storm, second hurricane, and first major hurricane of the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season, Dorian developed from a tropical wave on August 24 in the Central Atlantic. The system gradually intensified while moving toward the Lesser Antilles, before becoming a hurricane on August 28. Rapid intensification ensued, and on August 31, Dorian intensified into a Category 4 major hurricane. On the following day, Dorian reached Category 5 intensity, peaking with one-minute sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 910 millibars (26.87 inHg) while making landfall in Elbow Cay, Bahamas, at 16:40 UTC. Dorian made another landfall on Grand Bahama several hours later, near the same intensity.

From August 26–28, the storm affected Caribbean nations and territories devastated by hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. Extensive precautionary measures were taken to mitigate damage, especially in Puerto Rico, where one person died. Damaging winds primarily affected the Virgin Islands where gusts reached 111 mph (179 km/h). Elsewhere in the Lesser Antilles, impacts from the storm were relatively minor. After moving over the Bahamas the storm, the storm strengthened to a Category 5 storm and slowed its forward motion considerably, remaining essentially stationary over the Abaco Islands and Grand Bahama Island from September 1 to September 3. Wind speeds reached record levels of 185 mph (298 km/h) sustained winds, and gusts over 200 mph (320 km/h). Due to the prolonged and intense storm conditions, including heavy rainfall, high winds, and storm surge, damage in the Bahamas was extensive, with thousands of homes destroyed and at least five deaths recorded. The storm began to move slowly towards the north-northwest during the morning of September 3. By the afternoon of September 3, the storm had weakened to a Category 2 hurricane.

In preparation for the storm, the U.S. states of FloridaGeorgiaSouth CarolinaNorth Carolina and Virginia all declared a state of emergency and many coastal counties from Florida to North Carolina issued mandatory evacuation orders.

Meteorological history

Map plotting the track and the intensity of the storm, according to the Saffir–Simpson scale

On August 19, 2019, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) identified a tropical wave—an elongated trough of low air pressure—within a monsoon trough over Guinea and Senegal in western Africa. Convective activity associated with the wave was limited by an abundance of Saharan dust in the region.[1] Propagating west over the tropical Atlantic Ocean, the system remained disorganized for several days.[2] On August 23, a defined area of low pressure consolidated at the surface and thunderstorm activity increased.[3] The system acquired sufficient organized convection to be classified as Tropical Depression Five at 15:00 UTC on August 24. At this time the system was situated 805 mi (1,300 km) east-southeast of Barbados. A deep ridge imparted continued westward movement of the depression, steering it toward the Lesser Antilles.[4] A small cyclone, it soon developed a defined inner-core with a 12 mi (18 km) wide eye-like feature. This marked the system’s intensification into a tropical storm, at which time it was assigned the name Dorian by the NHC.[5] Thereafter, moderate wind shear and surrounding dry air limited further organization.[6] Rainbands gradually wrapped more around Dorian on August 25–26, though convection remained inconsistent.[7][8]

Dorian as seen from the ISS on August 29

Dorian continued moving west and came extremely close to Barbados, bringing tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain.[9] It then started moving northwestward toward St. Lucia and entering the Caribbean Sea. The storm underwent a center relocation further north, to the west of Martinique, causing the island to experience tropical storm-force winds as well.[10] Dorian had been predicted to travel northwest and pass over or near the Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico,[11] possibly allowing their mountainous terrain to weaken the tropical storm. At that time, dry air and wind shear were expected to prevent Dorian from attaining hurricane status—although just barely.[12] However, Dorian took a more northerly track than expected, causing it to pass to the east of Puerto Rico and hit the US Virgin Islands.

Strongest landfalling Atlantic hurricanesdagger
Rank Hurricane Season Wind speed
mph km/h
1 “Labor Day” 1935 185 295
Dorian 2019
3 Irma 2017 180 285
4 Janet 1955 175 280
Camille 1969
Anita 1977
David 1979
Dean 2007
9 “Cuba” 1924 165 270
Andrew 1992
Maria 2017
Source: HURDAT,[13] AOML/HRD[14]
daggerStrength refers to maximum sustained wind speed
upon striking land.

On August 28, Dorian intensified into a Category 1 hurricane as it approached St. Thomas in the US Virgin Islands, where hurricane-force winds were recorded; at 18:00 UTC that day, Dorian made landfall on St. Thomas at Category 1 intensity.[15][16] However, the hurricane’s small size prevented mainland Puerto Rico from experiencing hurricane- or tropical storm-force winds, although this was not the case for the Spanish Virgin Islands.[17]

File:Hurricane Dorian landfall on Abaco Island.webm

Hurricane Dorian making landfall on Abaco Island as a strong Category 5 hurricane, on September 1, 2019

Once the system moved north past the Virgin islands, the storm entered a more favorable environment. However, dry air was still in the system from its journey through the Caribbean sea and the lesser Antilles, and this gave the storm an erratic look and was lopsided. There was no more dry air afterwards, so the storm began to mix out the dry air, and on the next day, the system started to rapidly intensify, reaching Category 2 status early on August 30.[18] Rapid intensification continued, and the storm eventually reached major hurricane status several hours later, on the same day.[19] This strengthening trend came to a halt for the remainder of the day, but soon resumed.[20] The system continued strengthening, and on August 31, Dorian attained Category 4 major hurricane status.[21] Dorian reached Category 5 intensity on the following day.[22] On the morning of September 1, a dropsonde deployed by a NOAA aircraft measured a wind gust of 176 knots (326 km/h; 203 mph) at the surface. With one-minute sustained winds of 180 mph (290 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 913 mbar (27.0 inHg), the NHC noted that Dorian was the strongest hurricane in modern records to affect the northwestern Bahamas.[23] At 16:40 UTC on September 1, Hurricane Dorian made landfall on Great Abaco Island in the Bahamas, with one-minute sustained winds of 185 mph (298 km/h) wind gusts over 220 mph (355 km/h), and a central barometric pressure of 911 millibars (26.9 inHg).[24][25] The storm’s central pressure bottomed out at 910 millibars (26.87 inHg) within a few hours, as Dorian reached its peak intensity during landfall.[26] Hurricane Dorian’s forward speed decreased around this time, slowing to a westward crawl of 5 mph (8.0 km/h).[26] At 02:00 UTC on September 2, Dorian made landfall on Grand Bahama near the same intensity, with the same sustained wind speed.[27] The storm continued moving very slowly, at some points at only 1 knot (1.2 mph; 1.9 km/h) over Grand Bahama. This effectively had Dorian stall over Grand Bahama. Later on that day, the storm began to undergo an eyewall replacement cycle over Grand Bahama.[28] Dorian weakened to a Category 4 hurricane due to upwelling and the eyewall replacement cycle. In the absence of significant steering currents, Dorian had remained stationary. The storm further weakened to Category 2 intensity at 15:00 UTC September 3, but resumed its slow trek northwest, skirting the U.S. state of Florida.

Current storm information

As of 2:00 p.m. EDT (18:00 UTC) September 3, Hurricane Dorian is located within 15 nautical miles of 27.5°N 78.7°W, about 65 mi (105 km) north of Freeport, Bahamas and about 105 mi (170 km) east of Fort Pierce, Florida. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kn (110 mph; 175 km/h), with gusts to 115 kn (130 mph; 215 km/h). The minimum barometric pressure is 959 mbar (28.32 inHg), and the system is moving northwest at 4 kn (5 mph; 7 km/h). Hurricane-force winds extend up to 60 miles (95 km) from the center of Dorian, and tropical storm-force winds up to 175 miles (280 km) from the center.

For latest official information see:

Watches and warnings

Hurricane Warning
Hurricane conditions
expected within 36 hours.
Hurricane Watch
Hurricane conditions
possible within 48 hours.
  • United States
Tropical Storm Warning
Tropical storm conditions expected within 36 hours.
  • Bahamas
  • United States
    • Florida from north of Deerfield Beach to Jupiter Inlet
    • North of Ponte Vedra Beach, Florida to Edisto Beach, South Carolina
Storm Surge Warning
Life-threatening inundation from storm surge possible within 36 hours.
  • United States
    • Jupiter Inlet, Florida to South Santee River, South Carolina
Storm Surge Watch
Life-threatening inundation from storm surge possible within 48 hours.

Preparations

Caribbean

At 09:00 UTC on August 25, a tropical storm watch was issued for the island of Barbados.[29] Later that day, more watches and warnings were issued for more of the islands. A hurricane watch was also issued at 15:00 UTC August 26 for Saint Lucia.[30][31][32] Late on August 26, a tropical storm watch was issued for Puerto Rico.[33]

In Barbados, Prime Minister Mia Mottley ordered the closure of all schools and advised the nation’s residents to remain indoors for the duration of the storm. Infra worked to clear public drains island-wide.[34] Thirty-eight shelters opened island-wide, with 103 residents seeking refuge in them. All public services were suspended for the duration of the storm.[35][36] Homeless persons were transported to shelter by emergency personnel.[37] On August 26, St. Lucia prime minister Allen Chastanet announced that the nation would “shut down” for the duration of Dorian and all residents were mandated to stay home.[38] Numerous people ignored this warning, however, and the police detained several people who refused to return home.[39] LIAT cancelled multiple flights across the Lesser Antilles due to the storm.[40] The Department of Infrastructure, Ports and Energy placed all heavy machinery and equipment owners on standby to assist in cleanup and relief efforts.[41] In Dominica, Prime Minister Roosevelt Skerrit ordered all public sector workers to remain home and prepare for the storm.[42] The devastation from Hurricane Maria in 2017 brought greater vigilance from the public, and Skerrit assured residents that the nation was “better place now” than after Maria and there would be “no shutting of the country” for Dorian. The Ministry of Public Works mobilized heavy machinery and the police were placed on high alert to more effectively respond to emergency calls.[43] Small craft advisories and flash flood watches were issued for the island.[44]

The Puerto Rico National Guard was activated for potential relief efforts ahead of the hurricane

With Puerto Rico also recovering from Hurricane Maria in 2017, Governor Wanda Vázquez Garced declared a state of emergency for the territory on August 27.[16][45] The following day, the Puerto Rico National Guard was activated to support any relief operations related to the storm. Hundreds of vehicles, generators, and water trucks were fueled and filled to be ready for deployment.[46] Fears centered around the still-unstable power grid which was largely destroyed by Maria. In some areas, power lines remained affixed to palm trees.[34] Hundreds of utility workers were deployed to quickly fix any power outages.[47] Top government officials reported adequate supplies ahead of the storm; however, some local governors indicated a lack of generators and proper public shelters.[34] An estimated 30,000 homes still had damaged roofs from the 2017 hurricane.[48] Residents boarded up windows with plywood and stocked up on bottled water and generators.[34] All government offices and schools closed for the duration of the hurricane. Territory-wide, 360 shelters with a collective capacity of 48,500 persons opened; 24,000 cots were distributed to these shelters.[16] Private organizations worked quickly in Vieques to ensure the safety of residents. Fearing isolation from mainland Puerto Rico. ViequesLove established a radio network to keep residents informed of the hurricane. Volunteers supplied the island’s local shelter with a generator.[47]

Similar to Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands were still recovering from hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017.[49] A state of emergency was declared for the United States Virgin Islands on August 28,[16] and a curfew was enacted for the duration of the hurricane. All airports and seaports suspended operations.[50] The Government of the British Virgin Islands opened seven shelters territory-wide. A mandatory curfew was put in place from 2:00 p.m. on August 28 to 6:00 a.m. on August 29.[51] Auguste George AirportVirgin Gorda Airport, and Terrance B. Lettsome International Airport closed for the duration of the storm.[52] The majority of the British Virgin Islands’ clinics and hospitals suspended operations during the hurricane; however, a few remained open.[53]

Bahamas

A warning to take immediate cover was issued on the NHC twitter account, at 11 a.m. EDT on September 1, 2019, as Dorian made landfall in Elbow CayBahamas, at 16:40 UTC as a Category 5 hurricane.[54][55] Samuel Butler, the assistant commissioner for the Royal Bahamas Police Force told residents “if you do not to heed to the warning […] we know that the end could be be fatal” and Don Cornish, the administrator with the City of Freeport told others seeking shelter at Old Bahama Bay Hotel “that is not a good idea […] reconsider that decision”.[56]

Mainland United States

President Trump at a FEMA briefing on the hurricane

Florida

On August 28, Florida governor Ron DeSantis declared a state of emergency for 26 counties in the hurricane’s expected path.[47][57] This later expanded to the entire state on August 29. First responders distributed sandbags in many counties. Residents began stocking up on supplies throughout the state. In Brevard County, locals worked to trim large tree branches to protect power lines.[58] University of Central FloridaStetson UniversityRollins College, and Daytona State College cancelled classes between August 30 and September 3.[59] In addition, the Florida Institute of TechnologyUniversity of North FloridaEmbry-Riddle Aeronautical UniversityFlorida Atlantic UniversityUniversity of South Florida, and the University of Miami cancelled classes for at least one day on top of the three-day Labor Day weekend.

The Florida State League and Gulf Coast League of Minor League Baseball both cancelled the remainder of the regular season and the playoffs due to the hurricane.[60][61] In college football, the game between the Florida State Seminoles and the Boise State Broncos originally scheduled for 7 p.m. on August 31 in Jacksonville was moved to 12:00 p.m. on August 31 in Tallahassee to move the game out of the path of the storm.[62] The Orlando Pride of the National Women’s Soccer League postponed their game against the Washington Spirit from August 31 to October 5.[63]

Kay IveyGovernor of Alabama, announced that the Alabama National Guard will be sending up to fifty support personnel to Florida to aide in recovery efforts.[64][65] On September 1, Governor DeSantis stated that 4,500 members of the United States National Guard have been activated to help aide those affected by Dorian, saying that the hurricane is “way too close for comfort.”[66]

On Sunday, September 1, Jacksonville, Florida, announced mandatory evacuations for Monday, September 2, taking effect at 8 a.m. The city bridges closed when wind speeds of 40 mph (64 km/h) were recorded. Emergency shelters opened at 10 a.m. on Monday.[67] Broward County Public Schools will be closed Tuesday;[68] all city and government offices, as well as all Duval County Public SchoolsSt. Johns County Public Schools, and Brevard Public Schools will be closed for Tuesday and Wednesday. Neptune BeachJacksonville Beach, and Atlantic Beach will closed Sunday night.[67] On September 2, a curfew was set in place for Flagler County that will start at 7 p.m. Tuesday until further notice.[69] Legoland Florida and parts of Walt Disney World will be closed Tuesday.[70] The parts not closed will stay open until either 2 p.m or 3 p.m. EST and will stay closed until further notice.[71]

Uber started offering free roundtrip rides to and from shelters for up to $20. Comcast started offering free Wifi to everyone in Florida, Verizon is providing unlimited calling, data, and texting for customers, and AT&T is waiving data overage charges for residents.[72]

Georgia

On August 28, Georgia governor Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency for coastal counties of Georgia that are in the forecast path of the hurricane, including Brantley, Bryan, Camden, Charlton, Chatham, Effingham, Glynn, Liberty, Long, McIntosh, Pierce and Wayne counties.[73] Atlanta Motor Speedway opened their campgrounds free of charge to evacuees of Hurricane Dorian.[74] The College of Coastal Georgia announced campus closures for both Tuesday and Wednesday following Labor Day. Savannah State University also cancelled classes Tuesday.

South Carolina

The South Carolina National Guard and Governor Henry McMaster conduct a briefing on the hurricane

On August 31, South Carolina governor Henry McMaster declared a state of emergency for the entire state after the path of Dorian shifted to affect South Carolina as a strong hurricane.[75]

On September 1, during a news conference, Governor McMaster announced that mandatory evacuations for JasperBeaufortColletonCharlestonBerkeleyDorchesterGeorgetown, and Horry counties will go into effect on Monday, September 2, at noon. State government offices and schools in the counties previously mentioned will be closed until further notice, starting Tuesday.[76] Due to the evacuations, many colleges including College of Charleston and Coastal Carolina University were closed from Tuesday until further notice.

North Carolina

On August 30, North Carolina governor Roy Cooper declared a state of emergency for the entire state, due to the hurricane.[77] Charlotte Motor Speedway opened their campgrounds free of charge to evacuees of Hurricane Dorian.[78] The University of North Carolina at Wilmington cancelled classes for the week of September 3 and issued a mandatory evacuation of the campus.[79] Over the Labor Day weekend, several school districts announced plans to close ahead of expected evacuations. New Hanover CountyPender County and Brunswick County, all in the Cape Fear region, cancelled public schools on September 4-5, as did several private schools and community colleges.[80] Further north, along the Outer Banks in Dare County a mandatory evacuation order was given on September 2, 2019. Visitors and tourists were required to evacuate by noon on September 3, while residents were required to evacuate by 6:00 AM on September 4.[81]

Virginia

On September 2, Virginia governor Ralph Northam declared a state of emergency ahead of Dorian’s anticipated impact on coastal Virginia on Thursday, saying, “Hurricane Dorian is a serious storm, and current predictions indicate that it may affect parts of Virginia. I am declaring a state of emergency to ensure that localities and communities have the appropriate level of assistance, and to coordinate the Commonwealth’s response to any potential impacts from Hurricane Dorian. I encourage Virginians to take all necessary precautions to make sure they are prepared as well.”[82][83]

Elsewhere

On September 1, President Donald Trump tweeted that Alabama “will most likely be hit (much) harder than anticipated.”[84] The Birmingham office of the National Weather Service corrected the record several hours later, saying that Alabama “will NOT see any impacts from Dorian.”[85]

In TennesseeBristol Motor Speedway opened one of their campgrounds free of charge to evacuees of Hurricane Dorian.[86]

Impacts

Deaths and damage by territory
Territory Fatalities Missing Damage
(2019 USD)
Ref
Windward Islands 0 0 Unknown
Leeward Islands 0 0 Unknown
Bahamas Abaco Islands ≥5 0 Unknown [87]
Grand Bahama 0 0 Unknown
United
States
Puerto Rico 1 0 Unknown [45]
Mainland 1 0 Unknown
Totals: ≥7 0 Unknown

Caribbean

On August 26, winds began to pick up in the Lesser Antilles and water levels along the coast began to rise (storm surge).[34] Wind gusts in Barbados reached 55 mph (89 km/h),[45] downing trees and power lines.[36] Some residences in southern Barbados lost power and water service.[36][88] Overall, Dorian caused little damage in Barbados,[35] with only one home suffering damage in Saint Peter.[36] Isolated interruptions to power occurred on St. Lucia; no damage occurred otherwise in the nation.[89][90] In Martinique, heavy rains—peaking at 102 mm (4.0 in) in Rivière-Pilote—and winds up to 61 mph (98 km/h) caused some damage. Approximately 4,000 homes lost power and many streets became impassable due to flooding; one road was washed out.[91][92] Flooding affected some homes and businesses in Rivière-Pilote; however, overall damage was negligible.[92] Heavy showers in Dominica left multiple communities without power and water; however, effects were otherwise limited.[93] Rainfall extended north to Guadeloupe were accumulations reached 121 mm (4.8 in) in Matouba.[94]

Striking the Virgin Islands as an intensifying hurricane, Dorian brought strong winds and heavy rains to the region.[16] Buck Island, just south of Saint Thomas, experienced sustained winds of 82 mph (132 km/h) and a peak gust of 111 mph (179 km/h).[95] Wind gusts on Saint Thomas reached 75 mph (121 km/h).[45] Island-wide blackouts occurred on Saint Thomas and Saint John, while 25,000 customers lost power on Saint Croix.[16][45] The high winds downed trees across the islands.[16] Along the coast, multiple boats broke from their moorings and washed ashore.[96] One person died on Saint John during the hurricane; however, the cause of death is pending investigation and believed to be from natural causes.[50] Some flooding occurred on Tortola in the British Virgin Islands.[51] Significant flooding and some structural damage occurred along the outskirts of Road Town, including a mall that had its roof partially removed by storm-force gusts.[97][98] Downed trees knocked out power to some residences on Virgin Gorda.[99]

Owing to the hurricane’s moving farther northeast than initially anticipated, its effects in Puerto Rico were relatively limited.[16] Wind gusts in Culebra reached 62 mph (100 km/h) and 35 mph (56 km/h) in San Juan. Approximately 23,000 households lost power across the territory.[16][45] No major damage was reported in Culebra.[16] A man in Bayamón died when he fell off his roof trying to clean drains in advance of the storm.[45]

Hurricane Dorian on September 1 making landfall on the Abaco Islands near peak intensity

Bahamas

Increased tides were experienced in the Bahamas ahead of the storm, with rip currents occurring as well. On September 1, 2019, hurricane conditions arrived in some of the Abaco Islands. A few hours later, destructive conditions arrived, with Hurricane Dorian making landfall as a Category 5 hurricane at 16:40 UTC, becoming the strongest hurricane in modern records to strike the northwestern Bahamas.[100] Around 12:30 PM AST, Category 5 winds arrived at the Bahamas with the eyewall. Gusts of over 200 mph (320 km/h) also occurred.[101] At 7:00 (UTC) on September 2, 2019, Grand Bahama International Airport was underwater.[102] Minister of Agriculture Michael Pintard reported an estimated storm tide of 20 to 25 ft (6.1 to 7.6 m) at his home on Grand Bahama.[103] The Bahamas prime minister, Hubert Minnis, said “This is a deadly […] monster storm”.[104]

Marsh Harbour received “catastrophic damage”, according to an ABC News team.[105] There was significant flooding on streets and beaches, and damage to trees and homes, with some roofs ripped off entirely.[106] The scene was described by an ABC reporter as “pure hell”.[105] An eight-year-old boy drowned in the storm surge, while the boy’s sister was also reported to be missing.[107][108] Four other people, along with the eight-year-old boy, were confirmed dead on the Abaco Islands, the prime minister told reporters on Monday.[87][109]

The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) reported that as many as 13,000 homes were damaged or destroyed on Abaco Island. Extensive flooding is also believed to have caused water wells to be contaminated with seawater, creating an urgent need for clean water.[110]

Around 11:24 (UTC) September 2, 2019, total power was lost on the island of New Providence,[111] the following day at 1:50 (UTC) 40% of power had been restored.[112]

Tropical storm conditions continued into Monday. At 2 p.m. EDT, a sustained wind of 56 mph (90 km/h) and a gust of 69 mph (110 km/h) at a NOAA Coastal Marine observing site at Settlement Point on the west end of Grand Bahama Island.[113]

Mainland United States

Florida

On September 2, Florida began experiencing tropical storm-force winds. At 18:00 UTC (2 p.m. EDT), the pier in Juno Beach recorded a wind gust of 48 mph (75 km/h).[114] One death occurred in Indiatlantic when a man fell three stories while boarding up his home.[115]

Records

Most intense landfalling Atlantic hurricanes
Intensity is measured solely by central pressure
Rank Hurricane Season Landfall pressure
1 “Labor Day” 1935 892 mbar (hPa)
2 Camille 1969 900 mbar (hPa)
Gilbert 1988
4 Dean 2007 905 mbar (hPa)
5 “Cuba” 1924 910 mbar (hPa)
Dorian 2019
7 Janet 1955 914 mbar (hPa)
Irma 2017
9 “Cuba” 1932 918 mbar (hPa)
10 Michael 2018 919 mbar (hPa)
Sources: HURDAT,[13] AOML/HRD,[14] NHC[116]

With sustained winds of 185 mph (295 km/h), Dorian is the strongest hurricane on record to strike the Bahamas since records began in 1851.[117][100] Dorian is tied with the 1935 Labor Day hurricane for the highest sustained winds at landfall in an Atlantic hurricane;[118] by the same metric, it is also the strongest Atlantic hurricane since Wilma in 2005. Dorian is one of only two Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall on the Abaco Islands, the other having occurred in 1932,[119] and is the only such storm on record to have impacted Grand Bahama.[120] Additionally, Dorian featured the highest sustained winds in an Atlantic hurricane recorded as far north as its latitude.[121]

See also

References …

External links

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Dorian

 

Saffir–Simpson scale

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The Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS), formerly the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale (SSHS), classifies hurricanes – Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones – that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms – into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds.

Saffir–Simpson scale
Category Wind speeds
(for 1-minute maximum sustained winds)
m/s knots (kn) mph km/h
Five ≥ 70 m/s   ≥ 137 kn   ≥ 157 mph   ≥ 252 km/h  
Four   58–70 m/s     113–136 kn     130–156 mph     209–251 km/h  
Three   50–58 m/s     96–112 kn     111–129 mph     178–208 km/h  
Two   43–49 m/s     83–95 kn     96–110 mph     154–177 km/h  
One   33–42 m/s     64–82 kn     74–95 mph     119–153 km/h  
Related classifications
(for 1-minute maximum sustained winds)
Tropical storm   18–32 m/s     34–63 kn     39–73 mph     63–118 km/h  
Tropical depression   ≤ 17 m/s     ≤ 33 kn     ≤ 38 mph     ≤ 62 km/h  

To be classified as a hurricane, a tropical cyclone must have one-minute maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph (33 m/s; 64 kn; 119 km/h) (Category 1). The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, consists of storms with sustained winds over 156 mph (70 m/s; 136 kn; 251 km/h). The classifications can provide some indication of the potential damage and flooding a hurricane will cause upon landfall.

The Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale is based on the highest average wind over a one-minute time span and is officially used only to describe hurricanes that form in the Atlantic Ocean and northern Pacific Ocean east of the International Date Line.

Other areas use different scales to label these storms, which are called cyclones or typhoons, depending on the area. These areas (except the JTWC) use three-minute or ten-minute averaged winds to determine the maximum sustained winds—which is an important difference and makes direct comparison with storms scaled with the Saffir–Simpson method difficult.

There is some criticism of the SSHWS for not accounting for rain, storm surge, and other important factors, but SSHWS defenders say that part of the goal of SSHWS is to be straightforward and simple to understand.

Contents

History

The scale was developed in 1971 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Robert Simpson, who at the time was director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).[1] The scale was introduced to the general public in 1973,[2] and saw widespread use after Neil Frank replaced Simpson at the helm of the NHC in 1974.[3]

The initial scale was developed by Herbert Saffir, a structural engineer, who in 1969 went on commission for the United Nations to study low-cost housing in hurricane-prone areas.[4] While conducting the study, Saffir realized there was no simple scale for describing the likely effects of a hurricane. Mirroring the utility of the Richter magnitude scale for describing earthquakes, he devised a 1–5 scale based on wind speed that showed expected damage to structures. Saffir gave the scale to the NHC, and Simpson added the effects of storm surge and flooding.

In 2009, the NHC made moves to eliminate pressure and storm surge ranges from the categories, transforming it into a pure wind scale, called the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (Experimental) [SSHWS].[5] The new scale became operational on May 15, 2010.[6] The scale excludes flood ranges, storm surge estimations, rainfall, and location, which means a Category 2 hurricane that hits a major city will likely do far more cumulative damage than a Category 5 hurricane that hits a rural area.[7] The agency cited various hurricanes as reasons for removing the “scientifically inaccurate” information, including Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Ike (2008), which both had stronger than estimated storm surges, and Hurricane Charley (2004), which had weaker than estimated storm surge.[8] Since being removed from the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, storm surge predicting and modeling is now handled with the use of computer numerical models such as ADCIRC and SLOSH.

In 2012, the NHC expanded the windspeed range for Category 4 by 1 mph in both directions, to 130–156 mph, with corresponding changes in the other units (113–136 kn, 209–251 km/h), instead of 131–155 mph (114–135 kn, 210–249 km/h). The NHC and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center assign tropical cyclone intensities in 5 knot increments, and then convert to mph and km/h with a similar rounding for other reports. So an intensity of 115 kn is rated Category 4, but the conversion to miles per hour (132.3 mph) would round down to 130 mph, making it appear to be a Category 3 storm. Likewise, an intensity of 135 kn (~155 mph, and thus Category 4) is 250.02 km/h, which, according to the definition used before the change would be Category 5. To resolve these issues, the NHC had been obliged to incorrectly report storms with wind speeds of 115 kn as 135 mph, and 135 kn as 245 km/h. The change in definition allows storms of 115 kn to be correctly rounded down to 130 mph, and storms of 135 kn to be correctly reported as 250 km/h, and still qualify as Category 4. Since the NHC had previously rounded incorrectly to keep storms in Category 4 in each unit of measure, the change does not affect the classification of storms from previous years.[5] The new scale became operational on May 15, 2012.[9]

Categories

The scale separates hurricanes into five different categories based on wind. The U.S. National Hurricane Center classifies hurricanes of Category 3 and above as major hurricanes, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center classifies typhoons of 150 mph or greater (strong Category 4 and Category 5) as super typhoons (although all tropical cyclones can be very dangerous). Most weather agencies use the definition for sustained winds recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which specifies measuring winds at a height of 33 ft (10.1 m) for 10 minutes, and then taking the average. By contrast, the U.S. National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center define sustained winds as average winds over a period of one minute, measured at the same 33 ft (10.1 m) height,[10][11] and that is the definition used for this scale. Intensity of example hurricanes is from both the time of landfall and the maximum intensity.

The scale is roughly logarithmic in wind speed, and the top wind speed for Category “c” (c = 1 … 4; there is no upper limit for category 5) can be expressed as 83×10(​c15) miles per hour rounded to the nearest multiple of 5 – except that after the change mentioned above, Category 4 is now widened by 1 mph in each direction and that the calculated value for Category 2 (c = 2) is rounded down from 112.8 mph to 110 mph.

The five categories are described in the following subsections, in order of increasing intensity.[12]

Category 1

Category 1
Sustained winds Most recent
33–42 m/s
64–82 kn
119–153 km/h
74–95 mph
Barry 2019-07-13 1600Z.jpgBarry in 2019 at landfall in Louisiana.

Very dangerous winds will produce some damage

Category 1 storms usually cause no significant structural damage to most well-constructed permanent structures; however, they can topple unanchored mobile homes, as well as uproot or snap weak trees. Poorly attached roof shingles or tiles can blow off. Coastal flooding and pier damage are often associated with Category 1 storms. Power outages are typically widespread to extensive, sometimes lasting several days. Even though it is the least intense type of hurricane, they can still produce widespread damage and can be life-threatening storms.[5]

Hurricanes that peaked at Category 1 intensity and made landfall at that intensity include: Gladys (1968), Beth (1971), Agnes (1972), Juan (1985), Ismael (1995), Danny (1997), Claudette (2003), Gaston (2004), Stan (2005), Humberto (2007), Isaac (2012), Manuel (2013), Earl (2016), Hermine (2016), Newton (2016), Franklin (2017), Nate (2017) and Barry (2019).

Category 2

Category 2
Sustained winds Most recent
43–49 m/s
83–95 kn
154–177 km/h
96–110 mph
Arthur 2014-07-03 2130Z.png
Arthur in 2014 approaching North Carolina.

Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage

Storms of Category 2 intensity often damage roofing material (sometimes exposing the roof) and inflict damage upon poorly constructed doors and windows. Poorly constructed signs and piers can receive considerable damage and many trees are uprooted or snapped. Mobile homes, whether anchored or not, are typically damaged and sometimes destroyed, and many manufactured homes also suffer structural damage. Small craft in unprotected anchorages may break their moorings. Extensive to near-total power outages and scattered loss of potable water are likely, possibly lasting many days.[5]

Hurricanes that peaked at Category 2 intensity and made landfall at that intensity include: Able (1952), Alice (1954), Ella (1958), Fifi (1974), Diana (1990), Calvin (1993), Gert (1993), Rosa (1994), Erin (1995), Alma (1996), Juan (2003), Catarina (2004), Alex (2010), Richard (2010), Tomas (2010), Carlotta (2012), Ernesto (2012), and Arthur (2014).

Category 3

Category 3
Sustained winds Most recent
50–58 m/s
96–112 kn
178–208 km/h
111–129 mph
Otto 2016-11-24 1605Z.jpg
Otto in 2016 at its Nicaragua landfall.

Devastating damage will occur

Tropical cyclones of Category 3 and higher are described as major hurricanes in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins. These storms can cause some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings, particularly those of wood frame or manufactured materials with minor curtain wall failures. Buildings that lack a solid foundation, such as mobile homes, are usually destroyed, and gable-end roofs are peeled off. Manufactured homes usually sustain severe and irreparable damage. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures, while larger structures are struck by floating debris. A large number of trees are uprooted or snapped, isolating many areas. Additionally, terrain may be flooded well inland. Near-total to total power loss is likely for up to several weeks and water will likely also be lost or contaminated.[5]

Hurricanes that peaked at Category 3 intensity and made landfall at that intensity include: Easy (1950), Carol (1954), Hilda (1955), Audrey (1957), Isbell (1964), Celia (1970), Ella (1970), Eloise (1975), Olivia (1975), Alicia (1983), Elena (1985), Roxanne (1995), Fran (1996), Isidore (2002), Jeanne (2004), Lane (2006), Karl (2010), and Otto (2016).

Category 4

Category 4
Sustained winds Most recent
58–70 m/s
113–136 kn
209–251 km/h
130–156 mph
Harvey 2017-08-25 2231Z.png Harvey in 2017 nearing landfall in Texas.

Catastrophic damage will occur

Category 4 hurricanes tend to produce more extensive curtainwall failures, with some complete structural failure on small residences. Heavy, irreparable damage and near complete destruction of gas station canopies and other wide span overhang type structures are common. Mobile and manufactured homes are often flattened. Most trees, except for the heartiest, are uprooted or snapped, isolating many areas. These storms cause extensive beach erosion, while terrain may be flooded far inland. Total and long-lived electrical and water losses are to be expected, possibly for many weeks.[5]

The 1900 Galveston hurricane, the deadliest natural disaster to hit the United States, peaked at an intensity that corresponds to a modern-day Category 4 storm. Other examples of storms that peaked at Category 4 intensity and made landfall at that intensity include: Hazel (1954), Gracie (1959), Donna (1960), Flora (1963), Cleo (1964), Betsy (1965), Carmen (1974), Frederic (1979), Joan (1988), Iniki (1992), Luis (1995), Iris (2001), Charley (2004), Dennis (2005), Gustav (2008), Ike (2008), Joaquin (2015), and Harvey (2017).

Category 5[edit]

Category 5
Sustained winds Most recent
≥ 70 m/s
≥ 137 kn
≥ 252 km/h
≥ 157 mph
Dorian 2019-09-01 1500Z.jpg Dorian in 2019 nearing its Bahamas landfall.

Extremely catastrophic damage will occur

Category 5 is the highest category of the Saffir–Simpson scale. These storms cause complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings, and some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Collapse of many wide-span roofs and walls, especially those with no interior supports, is common. Very heavy and irreparable damage to many wood frame structures and total destruction to mobile/manufactured homes is prevalent. Only a few types of structures are capable of surviving intact, and only if located at least 3 to 5 miles (5 to 8 km) inland. They include office, condominium and apartment buildings and hotels that are of solid concrete or steel frame construction, multi-story concrete parking garages, and residences that are made of either reinforced brick or concrete/cement block and have hipped roofs with slopes of no less than 35 degrees from horizontal and no overhangs of any kind, and if the windows are either made of hurricane-resistant safety glass or covered with shutters. Unless all of these requirements are met, the absolute destruction of a structure is certain.[5]

The storm’s flooding causes major damage to the lower floors of all structures near the shoreline, and many coastal structures can be completely flattened or washed away by the storm surge. Virtually all trees are uprooted or snapped and some may be debarked, isolating most affected communities. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required if the hurricane threatens populated areas. Total and extremely long-lived power outages and water losses are to be expected, possibly for up to several months.[5]

Historical examples of storms that made landfall at Category 5 status include: “Cuba” (1924), “Okeechobee” (1928), “Bahamas” (1932), “Cuba–Brownsville” (1933), “Labor Day” (1935), Janet (1955), Camille (1969), Edith (1971), Anita (1977), David (1979), Gilbert (1988), Andrew (1992), Dean (2007), Felix (2007), Irma (2017),[13] Maria (2017),[14] Michael (2018),[15] and Dorian (2019). No Category 5 hurricane is known to have made landfall at that strength in the eastern Pacific basin.

Criticism

Some scientists, including Kerry Emanuel and Lakshmi Kantha, have criticized the scale as being simplistic, indicating that the scale takes into account neither the physical size of a storm nor the amount of precipitation it produces.[7] Additionally, they and others point out that the Saffir–Simpson scale, unlike the Richter scale used to measure earthquakes, is not continuous, and is quantized into a small number of categories. Proposed replacement classifications include the Hurricane Intensity Index, which is based on the dynamic pressure caused by a storm’s winds, and the Hurricane Hazard Index, which is based on surface wind speeds, the radius of maximum winds of the storm, and its translational velocity.[16][17] Both of these scales are continuous, akin to the Richter scale;[18] however, neither of these scales have been used by officials.

“Categories 6 and 7”

After the series of powerful storm systems of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, as well as after Hurricane Patricia, a few newspaper columnists and scientists brought up the suggestion of introducing Category 6, and they have suggested pegging Category 6 to storms with winds greater than 174 or 180 mph (78 or 80 m/s; 151 or 156 kn; 280 or 290 km/h).[7][19] Fresh calls were made for consideration of the issue after Hurricane Irma in 2017,[20] which was the subject of a number of seemingly credible false news reports as a “Category 6” storm,[21] partly in consequence of so many local politicians using the term. Only a few storms of this intensity have been recorded. Of the 35 hurricanes currently considered to have attained Category 5 status in the Atlantic, 19 had wind speeds at 175 mph (78 m/s; 152 kn; 282 km/h) or greater and only eight had wind speeds at 180 mph (80 m/s; 160 kn; 290 km/h) or greater (the 1935 Labor Day hurricaneAllenGilbertMitchRitaWilmaIrma, and Dorian). Of the 18 hurricanes currently considered to have attained Category 5 status in the eastern Pacific, only five had wind speeds at 175 mph (78 m/s; 152 kn; 282 km/h) or greater (PatsyJohnLindaRick, and Patricia), and only three had wind speeds at 180 mph (80 m/s; 160 kn; 290 km/h) or greater (Linda, Rick, and Patricia). Most storms which would be eligible for this category were typhoons in the western Pacific, most notably Typhoon Tip in 1979, with sustained winds of 190 mph (310 km/h),[22] and typhoons Haiyan and Meranti in 2013 and 2016, respectively, each with sustained winds of 195 mph (314 km/h). Occasionally, suggestions of using even higher wind speeds as the cutoff have been made. In a newspaper article published in November 2018, NOAA research scientist Jim Kossin said that the potential for more intense hurricanes was increasing as the climate warmed, and suggested that Category 6 would begin at 195 mph (87 m/s; 169 kn; 314 km/h), with a further hypothetical Category 7 beginning at 230 mph (100 m/s; 200 kn; 370 km/h).[23]

According to Robert Simpson, there are no reasons for a Category 6 on the Saffir–Simpson Scale because it is designed to measure the potential damage of a hurricane to human-made structures. Simpson stated that “… when you get up into winds in excess of 155 mph (249 km/h) you have enough damage if that extreme wind sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it’s going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it’s engineered.”[3] Nonetheless, the counties of Broward and Miami-Dade in Florida have building codes that require that critical infrastructure buildings be able to withstand Category 5 winds.[24][dead link]

See also

References …

External links

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale

 

 

Story 2: Trump Administration Tightens Citizenship Rules of U.S. Military and Government Employees For Their Children Adopted  Abroad — Less Than 20-30 Children Are Impacted — Conform USCIS Policy to State Department — No Citizenship Denied! — Media Fake News Story Exposed — Videos

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New immigration rule restricts US citizenship for certain children

NEW POLICY: Children of Service Members Overseas will NOT get Automatic Citizenship

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Trump Ends Automatic Citizenship For Some Military Kids Overseas | Velshi & Ruhle | MSNBC

Trump administration changing citizenship rules for some children of US service members

Citizenship for children born to service members oversees

Children born to US service members overseas will no longer be granted automatic citizenship

Children of US Troops Born Overseas No Longer Eligible for Automatic Citizenship

U.S. Department of Homeland Security
U.S. Citizenship
and Immigration
Services
http://www.uscis.gov
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services
Office of the Director (MS 2000)
Washington, DC 20529-2000
August 28, 2019 PA-2019-05
Policy Alert
SUBJECT: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Purpose
U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is issuing policy guidance in the USCIS
Policy Manual to address requirements for “residence” in statutory provisions related to
citizenship, and to rescind previous guidance regarding children of U.S. government employees
and members of the U.S. armed forces employed or stationed outside the United States.
Background
Numerous statutory provisions related to citizenship1
require applicants or their U.S. citizen
parents to “reside” or to have had a “residence” in a particular location. USCIS is updating the
Policy Manual to better define residence and clarify the distinction between U.S. residence and
physical presence. In addition, USCIS is updating its policy regarding children of U.S. government
employees and U.S. armed forces members employed or stationed outside the United States to
explain that they are not considered to be “residing in the United States” for purposes of acquiring
citizenship under INA 320.
This guidance, contained in Volume 12 of the Policy Manual, is effective as of October 29, 2019
(see attached) and applies prospectively to applications filed on or after that date.2
Policy Highlights
• Clarifies that temporary visits to the United States do not establish U.S. residence and
explains the distinction between residence and physical presence in the United States.
Explains that USCIS no longer considers children of U.S. government employees and U.S.
armed forces members residing outside the United States as “residing in the United States”
for purposes of acquiring citizenship under INA 320.3
Citation: Volume 12: Citizenship and Naturalization, Part H, Children of U.S. Citizens [12
USCIS-PM H]; Part I, Military Members and their Families [12 USCIS-PM I].
1 See, for example, INA 301(c), INA 320(a)(3), and INA 322(a)(4). 2 Children who have already been recognized through the issuance of a Certificate of Citizenship as having acquired
U.S. citizenship under INA 320 will not be affected by this policy change. 3 Instead, the U.S. citizen parent of such a child may apply for naturalization on the child’s behalf under INA 322.

http://www.uscis.gov
Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 2
This policy is effective on October 29, 2019 and will be incorporated into the Policy Manual
accordingly.
USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 12: Citizenship & Naturalization
Part H – Children of U.S. Citizens
Chapter 2. Definition of Child and Residence for Citizenship and Naturalization
* * *
F. Definition of U.S. Residence
The term residence is defined in the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) as the person’s
principal actual dwelling place in fact, without regard to intent.1 A person is not required to live in
a particular place for a specific period of time in order for that place to be considered his or her
“residence.” However, the longer a stay in a particular place, the more likely it is that a person
can establish that place is his or her residence.
1. Difference between Residence and Physical Presence
The term residence should not be confused with physical presence, which refers to the actual
time a person is in the United States, regardless of whether he or she has a residence in the
United States.2 Although some provisions related to naturalization and citizenship require specific
time periods of physical presence, residence, or both,3 in contrast, there is no specific time period
of residence required for purposes of acquiring citizenship where a child is born outside the
United States of two U.S. citizen parents.4
For example, a person who spent time travelling in the United States for a year living in different
hotel rooms in different cities or towns every week and who did not own or rent any property or
have another principal dwelling place in the United States, would likely be able to establish 1 year
of physical presence. However, without additional evidence of a principal actual dwelling place in
the United States, that person could not establish residence in the United States. The table below
provides a few examples on how travel would affect the physical presence and the residence
requirements. However, the examples are not dispositive and individual cases will be determined
based on the individual merits and evidence presented.
1 See INA 101(a)(33). See Savorgnan v. U.S., 338 U.S. 491, 506 (1950). 2 Examples of documentary evidence showing physical presence may include: academic transcripts, military records,
official vaccination records, medical records, employment records, and lease agreements. 3 See INA 301. See INA 309. For more information on physical presence, see Part D, General Naturalization
Requirements, Chapter 4, Physical Presence [12 USCIS-PM D.4]. 4 See INA 301(c).

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Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 3
Examples Illustrating Physical Presence and Residence in the United States
Scenarios Physical
Presence Residence
U.S. citizen parent owns a home and works in a foreign
country. Parent travels to the United States and:
• Stays 2 weeks with a cousin in New York,
• Stays 2 weeks in New York with his or her parents,
and
• Travels to Florida on vacation for 2 weeks.
6 weeks
No U.S. residence
(Residence is
outside the
United States)
Parent is a U.S. citizen born in a foreign country, who
never lived in or visited the United States. His child moved
to the United States as an adult and claimed U.S.
citizenship.
No physical
presence5 No U.S. residence
As a child, U.S. citizen parent came to the United States for
3 consecutive summers to attend a 2-month long camp.
The parent lived and went to school in a foreign country
for the rest of the year.
6 months
No U.S. residence
(Residence is
outside the
United States)
U.S. citizen parent worked in the United States for 9
months in a year for 8 years out of a 9-year period. (Parent
returned to Mexico to spend the remaining 3 months of
each year with family, who never visited the United
States.)
9 months in a
year for 8
years
U.S. residence
established6
2. Special Considerations
Various circumstances may affect whether USCIS considers a person to be residing in the United
States, and therefore whether a U.S. citizen may transmit citizenship to his or her children.
U.S. Citizens who were Born, But Did Not Reside, in the United States
A U.S. citizen may have automatically acquired U.S. citizenship based on birth in the United
States,7 but never actually resided in the United States. This U.S. citizen will not have established
5 See Madar v. USCIS, 918 F.3d 120 (3rd Cir. 2019). In that case, the appellant argued that he was “constructively
resident” in the United States because his U.S. citizen father lived during the relevant time in what was then
Communist Czechoslovakia and was not free to leave the country. The court rejected that claim noting that physical
presence requirements can be constructively satisfied only in extraordinary circumstances, such as, for example,
when a U.S. government error causes citizenship to lapse, preventing the foreign-born parent from complying with
the physical presence requirements.
6 See Alcarez-Garcia v. Ashcroft, 293 F.3rd 1155 (9th Cir. 2002). 7 See U.S. Const. amend XIV. See INA 301(a).

http://www.uscis.gov
Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 4
residence in the United States, and may be unable to transmit U.S. citizenship to his or her own
children.
For example, if the U.S. citizen, still having never resided in the United States, subsequently
marries another U.S. citizen who never resided in the United States, and they give birth to a child
outside the United States, the child will not acquire citizenship at birth under INA 301(c) because
neither U.S. citizen parent can show the requisite residence in the United States. However, if the
U.S. citizen parent had returned to the United States after his or her birth and established
residence before giving birth to the child outside the United States, then he or she may be able to
meet the residence requirement based on that period of residence and transmit U.S. citizenship
to his or her children.
Commuters and Temporary Visits to the United States
Residence is more than a temporary presence or a visit to the United States. Therefore,
temporary presences and visits are insufficient to establish residence for the purposes of
transmitting citizenship. For example, someone who resides along the border in Mexico or
Canada, but works each day in the United States, cannot use his or her workplace to establish a
residence.
Vacations or brief stays in the United States do not qualify as residence in the United States.
However, attendance at school, college, or university in the United States for an extended period
of time may be considered as residence in the United States depending upon the totality of the
circumstances.8
Owning or Renting Property
A person does not need to own or rent property in the United States in order to establish
residence. In addition, owning or renting property outside of the United States does not
automatically establish lack of residence in the United States. Owning and renting property in the
United States may help to establish residence in the United States if the person also establishes
that he or she actually lived in that property, for example. A person who owns property but
never lived in the property would not be able to establish residence based on owning that
property.
3. Evidence
A U.S. citizen who was born in the United States generally meets the residence requirement as
long as he or she can present evidence to demonstrate that his or her mother was not merely
8 See Matter of M–, 4 I&N Dec. 418 (BIA 1951) (continuous stay in the United States as a college student for almost 3
years held to have residence in the United States for purposes of Section 201(g) of the Nationality Act of 1940, Pub.
L. 76-853, 54 Stat. 1137, 1139 (October 14, 1940)).

http://www.uscis.gov
Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 5
transiting through or visiting the United States at the time of his or her birth.9 For example, a long
form birth certificate is sufficient evidence if it shows a U.S. address listed as the mother’s
residence at the time of the U.S. citizen’s birth.
If a U.S. citizen’s birth certificate indicates that his or her mother’s address was outside of the
United States at the time of the birth, USCIS may find that the U.S. citizen does not meet the
residence requirement unless the U.S. citizen can prove U.S. residence.
Documents that can help demonstrate residence include, but are not limited to, the following:
• U.S. marriage certificate indicating the address of the bride and groom;
• Property rental leases, property tax records, and payment receipts;
• Deeds;
• Utility bills;
• Automobile registrations;
• Professional licenses;
• Employment records or information;
• Income tax records and income records, including W-2 salary forms;
• School transcripts;
• Military records; and
• Vaccination and medical records.
Chapter 3. U.S. Citizens at Birth (INA 301 and 309)
* * * * *
Chapter 4. Automatic Acquisition of Citizenship after Birth (INA 320)
9 For more information on how the rules may vary depending on whether the U.S. citizen is the mother or father of a
child seeking to acquire citizenship, see Chapter 3, U.S. Citizens at Birth (INA 301 and 309), Section A, General
Requirements for Acquisition of Citizenship at Birth [12 USCIS-PM H.4(A)] through Section C, Child Born Out of
Wedlock [12 USCIS-PM H.4(C)].

http://www.uscis.gov
Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 6
A. General Requirements: Genetic, Legitimated, or Adopted Child Automatically Acquiring
Citizenship after Birth1
A child born outside of the United States automatically becomes a U.S. citizen when all of the
following conditions have been met on or after February 27, 2001:2
• The child has at least one parent, including an adoptive parent3 who is a U.S. citizen by
birth or through naturalization;
• The child is under 18 years of age;
• The child is a lawful permanent resident (LPR);4 and
• The child is residing5 in the United States in the legal and physical custody of the U.S.
citizen parent.6
A child born abroad through Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) to a U.S. citizen gestational
mother who is not also the genetic mother may acquire U.S. citizenship under INA 320 if:
• The child’s gestational mother is recognized by the relevant jurisdiction as the child’s legal
parent at the time of the child’s birth; and
1 See INA 320. See Nationality Chart 3. 2 These provisions were created by the Child Citizenship Act of 2000 (CCA), Pub. L. 106-395 (October 30, 2000), which
amended earlier provisions of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA) regarding acquisition of citizenship after
birth for foreign-born children who have U.S. citizen parent(s). These CCA amendments became effective on
February 27, 2001.
3 As long as the child meets the requirements to be considered an adopted child for immigration purposes, as
outlined in INA 101(b)(1)(E), INA 101(b)(1)(F), or INA 101(b)(1)(G). 4 A person is generally considered to be an LPR once USCIS approves his or her adjustment application or once he or
she enters the United States with an immigrant visa. See INA 245(b). For certain classifications, however, the
effective date of becoming an LPR is a date that is earlier than the actual approval of the status (commonly referred
to as a “rollback” date). See Part D, General Naturalization Requirements, Chapter 2, Lawful Permanent Resident
(LPR) Admission for Naturalization, Section A, Lawful Permanent Resident (LPR) at Time of Filing and Naturalization
[12 USCIS-PM D.2(A)]. In addition, a person who is born a U.S. national and is the child of a U.S. citizen may establish
eligibility for a Certificate of Citizenship without having to establish LPR status. 5 For the definition of residence, see Chapter 2, Definition of Child and Residence for Citizenship and Naturalization,
Section F, Definition of Residence [12 USCIS-PM H.2(F)].
6 See INA 320. See 8 CFR 320.2. Children of U.S. government employees, including members of the armed forces,
who live with parents who are stationed outside the United States are not considered to be “residing in” the United
States for purposes of acquisition of citizenship under INA 320. For a more thorough discussion, see Chapter 5, Child
Residing Outside of the United States (INA 322), Section E, Application for Citizenship and Issuance of Certificate
under Section 322 (Form N-600K) [12 USCIS-PM H.6(E)].

http://www.uscis.gov
Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 7
• The child meets all other requirements under INA 320, including that the child is residing
in the United States in the legal and physical custody of the U.S. citizen parent.7
A stepchild who has not been adopted does not qualify for citizenship under this provision.
* * * * *
Chapter 5. Child Residing Outside of the United States (INA 322)
* * *
D. Temporary Presence by Lawful Admission and Status in United States
* * *
E. Children of U.S. Government Employees and Members of the Armed Forces Employed or
Stationed Abroad
Effective October 29, 2019, children residing abroad with their U.S. citizen parents who are U.S.
government employees or members of the U.S. armed forces stationed abroad are not
considered to be residing in the United States for acquisition of citizenship. Similarly, leave taken
in the United States while stationed abroad is not considered residing in the United States even if
the person is staying in property he or she owns.
Therefore, U.S. citizen parents who are residing outside the United States with children who are
not U.S. citizens should apply for U.S. citizenship on behalf of their children under INA 3228, and
must complete the process before the child’s 18th birthday.9 The child of a member of the U.S.
armed forces accompanying his or her parent abroad on official orders may be eligible to
complete all aspects of the naturalization proceedings abroad. This includes interviews, filings,
oaths, ceremonies, or other proceedings relating to naturalization.10
Applications filed on or after October 29, 2019 are subject to this policy. The policy in place
before October 29, 2019 applies to applications filed before that date. Children who have already
been recognized through the issuance of a Certificate of Citizenship as having acquired U.S.
citizenship under INA 320 are not affected by this policy change.
Background
Children born outside the United States who did not acquire U.S. citizenship at birth have two
7 For a more thorough discussion, see Chapter 2, Definition of Child for Citizenship and Naturalization, Section E,
Child Born Abroad through Assisted Reproductive Technology [12 USCIS-PM H.2(E)]. 8 See Chapter 9, Spouses, Children, and Surviving Family Benefits, Section C, Children of Military Members [12 USCISPM I.9(C)]. 9 See INA 322(a)(3). 10 See INA 322(d).

http://www.uscis.gov
Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 8
methods by which they could become U.S. citizens. The first method permits children to
automatically become U.S. citizens under INA 320. Among other eligibility criteria, the statute
requires the child to be “residing in the United States in the legal and physical custody of the
citizen parent pursuant to a lawful admission for permanent residence.”11
The second method is for the U.S. citizen parent of a child “who has not acquired citizenship
automatically under section 320” to apply for U.S. citizenship on the child’s behalf under INA 322.
To be eligible for citizenship under INA 322, the statute requires the child to be “residing outside
of the United States in the legal and physical custody of the applicant (or, if the citizen parent is
deceased, an individual who does not object to the application).”12
USCIS policy previously provided that children of U.S. government employees and members of
the U.S. armed forces who were employed or stationed outside of the United States should be
considered to be both “residing in the United States” for purposes of INA 320 and “residing
outside of the United States” for purposes of INA 322.13 Their parents were permitted to file an
Application for Certificate of Citizenship (Form N-600) on their behalf and obtain a Certificate of
Citizenship showing that they had acquired citizenship automatically, or their parents were
permitted to file an Application for Citizenship and Issuance of Certificate Under Section 322
(Form N-600K) in order to apply for naturalization on the child’s behalf.
USCIS previously arrived at the interpretation that children of members of the U.S. armed forces
could be considered as “residing in the United States” when stationed abroad by comparison to
naturalization under INA 316.
For purposes of naturalization under INA 316, eligibility requirements include continuous
residence in the United States for at least 5 years after being lawfully admitted for permanent
residence.14 An absence from the United States for a continuous period of 1 year of more during
the period for which continuous residence is required, breaks the continuity of such residence,
except in certain cases when the absence is related to qualifying employment, including an
absence by a U.S. government employee who establishes that he or she is absent from the United
States on behalf of the U.S. government.15 The spouse and dependent unmarried sons and
daughters of such an employee are also entitled to this exception excusing the absence from the
United States during which they are residing outside of the United States as dependent members
of the U.S. government employee’s household.
11 See INA 320(a)(3). 12 See INA 322(a)(4). 13 See Policy Manual Technical Update, Child Citizenship Act and Children of U.S. Government Employees Residing
Abroad (July 20, 2015); and USCIS Policy Memorandum, No. 103, Acquisition of Citizenship by Children of U.S. Military
and Government Employees Stationed Abroad under Section 320 of the Immigration and Nationality Act (INA), issued
May 6, 2004.
14 See INA 316(a). See Part D, General Naturalization Requirements, Chapter 3, Continuous Residence [12 USCIS-PM
D.3]. 15 See INA 316(b).

http://www.uscis.gov
Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 9
Based on this treatment of U.S. government employees and their children in the context of
naturalization under INA 316, USCIS determined that “residing in the United States” for purposes
of naturalization under INA 320 should likewise be interpreted to include children of U.S. military
and government employees stationed outside of the United States who are residing outside of
the United States with their parents.
However, as of October 29, 2019, USCIS is no longer committed to this reasoning because the
prior USCIS policy guidance is in conflict with several provisions of the Immigration and
Nationality Act (INA), especially with changes to the acquisition of citizenship statutes that
occurred in 2008, after the initial policy determination in 2004.
First, permitting a child to be eligible simultaneously for a Certificate of Citizenship under INA 320
and for naturalization under INA 322 conflicts with the language of INA 322(a), which states that
a parent “may apply for naturalization on behalf of a child born outside of the United States who
has not acquired citizenship automatically under INA 320.”
Second, considering children who are living outside of the United States to be “residing in the
United States” conflicts with the definition of “residence” at INA 101(a)(33), which defines
“residence” as a person’s “principal, actual dwelling place in fact.”
Third, considering these children to be “residing in the United States” is at odds with INA 322(d),
which was enacted in 2008,16 4 years after USCIS issued policy guidance on the topic. When
Congress enacted INA 322(d), it provided for special procedures in cases involving the
naturalization of “a child of a member of the Armed Forces of the United States who is authorized
to accompany such member and reside abroad with the member pursuant to the member’s
official orders, and is so accompanying and residing with the member.” Congress placed this
provision under INA 322, which applies only to children “residing outside of the United States.” It
did not provide similar language for such children to acquire citizenship under INA 320.
Furthermore, in the same legislation, Congress also explicitly provided that spouses of U.S. armed
forces members who reside outside of the United States due to the member’s official orders are
considered to be residing in the United States for naturalization purposes.17 The fact that no
similar provision was included for children of U.S. armed forces members in the acquisition of
citizenship context is significant.18
Finally, the prior USCIS policy produced confusion in several respects. First, it may have resulted
in inconsistent adjudications by USCIS officers adjudicating applications for certificates of
citizenship, and U.S. Department of State (DOS) consular officers adjudicating passport
applications. DOS has interpreted INA 320 to apply solely to children who are physically in the
16 See National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2008, Pub. L. 110-181, 122 Stat 3 (January 28, 2008). 17 See INA 319(e). 18 See, for example, Keene Corp. v. United States, 508 U.S. 200, 208 (1993) (quoting Russello v. United States, 464 U.S.
16, 23 (1983)) (“[W]here Congress includes particular language in one section of a statute but omits it in another …, it
is generally presumed that Congress acts intentionally and purposely in the disparate inclusion or exclusion.”).

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Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 10
United States and does not recognize an exception by policy for children of U.S. military and U.S.
government employees stationed outside of the United States.19
In addition, the policy resulted in confusion as to the date a child acquired U.S. citizenship,
depending on what form the parent (a U.S. government employee or U.S. armed forces member
employed or stationed outside of the United States) used: Form N-600K would result in
naturalization proceedings under INA 322, while Form N-600 would result in automatic
acquisition of citizenship under INA 320. Children who acquire U.S. citizenship automatically are
citizens as of the date on which they meet all eligibility criteria under INA 320, but children who
seek naturalization under INA 322 become citizens upon taking and subscribing to the oath of
allegiance (or upon approval of the application if the oath is waived).
Under USCIS’ prior policy guidance, a child of a U.S. government employee or U.S. armed forces
member who was employed or stationed outside of the United States could meet all of the
eligibility criteria for acquiring citizenship under INA 320 while residing outside of the United
States, but still seek to naturalize under INA 322. In such a case, the date on which the child
became a citizen would have been unclear.
For all these reasons, USCIS rescinded the prior USCIS policy permitting children of U.S.
government employees and U.S. armed forces members stationed outside of the United States to
be considered “residing in” the United States.
F. Application for Citizenship and Issuance of Certificate under Section 322 (Form N-600K)
* * *
G. Documentation and Evidence
* * *
H. Citizenship Interview and Waiver
* * *
I. Decision and Oath of Allegiance
* * * * *
USCIS Policy Manual, Volume 12: Citizenship & Naturalization
Part I – Military Members and their Families
19 See 8 FAM 301.10-2(A), Evidence of Citizenship for Children Born Abroad to U.S. Citizen Parent(s) Under INA 320 as
amended by the Child Citizenship Act of 2000.

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Policy Alert 2019-05: Defining “Residence” in Statutory Provisions Related to Citizenship
Page 11
Chapter 9. Spouses, Children, and Surviving Family Benefits
* * *
C. Children of Military Members20
The table below serves as a quick reference guide to certain residence, physical presence, and
overseas naturalization provisions for children of service members. The paragraphs that follow
the table provide further guidance on each provision.
Residence, Lawful Admission, and Overseas Naturalization
for Children of Members of the U.S. Armed Forces
INA
Section21
Place of
Residence
Lawful
Admission
Treatment of
Time Residing
Abroad
Automatic Citizenship or
Overseas Naturalization
320 United
States Must be LPR
Must reside with
U.S. citizen
parent in the
United States
May acquire automatic
citizenship (must take oath in
the United States)
322
Outside the
United
States
No lawful
admission
required
Must reside with
U.S. citizen
parent serving
abroad
Must apply, but may complete
entire naturalization process
from outside the United States
(must take oath before 18th
birthday)
1. Children of Service Members Residing in the United States (INA 320)
* * * * *
20 This section describes certain benefits on residence, lawful admission, and overseas naturalization for children of
service members. See Part H, Children of U.S. Citizens [12 USCIS-PM H], for guidance on the general naturalization,
residence and acquisition of citizenship provisions. 21 See 8 CFR 320.2 and 8 CFR 322.2.

 

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/policymanual/updates/20190828-ResidenceForCitizenship.pdf

Trump administration tightens citizenship rules for children of U.S. military abroad

Children born to U.S. citizens stationed abroad as government employees or members of the U.S. military will no longer qualify for automatic American citizenship under a policy change unveiled on Wednesday by the Trump administration.

Effective Oct. 29, parents serving overseas in the U.S. armed forces or other agencies of the federal government would need to go through a formal application process seeking U.S. citizenship on their children’s behalf, the policy states.

Currently, children born to U.S. citizens stationed by their government in a foreign country are legally considered to be “residing in the United States,” allowing their parents to simply obtain a certificate showing the children acquired citizenship automatically.

But an 11-page “policy alert” issued by U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) said the agency found the prevailing policy to be at odds with other parts of federal immigration law. Beyond that, the rationale for the policy change remained unclear.

“USCIS is updating its policy regarding children of U.S. government employees and U.S. armed forces members employed or stationed outside the United States to explain that they are not considered to be ‘residing in the United States’ for purposes of acquiring citizenship,” the memorandum said.

The number of government and military personnel affected by the change was not immediately known, but the revised policy sparked immediate consternation on the part of some organizations representing members of the armed forces.

“Military members already have enough to deal with, and the last thing that they should have to do when stationed overseas is go through hoops to ensure their children are U.S. citizens,” said Andy Blevins, executive director of the Modern Military Association of America.

He urged Congress to take action to address the situation to “ensure our military families don’t suffer the consequences of a reckless administration.” (Reporting by Steve Gorman in Los Angeles; editing by Bill Tarrant and Leslie Adler)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-7405063/Trump-administration-tightens-citizenship-rules-children-U-S-military-abroad.html

 

 

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The Pronk Pops Show 1298, July 30, 2019, Breaking News — Story 1: Judge John Koeltl in Manhattan United States District Court for The Southern District on New York Permanently Dismisses Frivolous Democratic Party Lawsuit Against Trump’s Campaign Alleging Conspiracy with Russian Government and Wikileaks Without Merit — Trump Vindicated — Videos — Story 2: North Korea Again Launches Short-Range (260 Miles) Missiles Threatening U.S. Ally South Korea — Videos — Story 3: Communist China Reconsiders Three-Child Policy as Population Growth Declines — Videos — Story 4: Democrat Destruction Derby Debate 1 — Radical Extremist Democrat Socialists (REDS) — All We Are Saying Is Give Socialism A Chance — De Plane — De Plane — Videos

Posted on July 31, 2019. Filed under: 2020 Democrat Candidates, 2020 President Candidates, 2020 Republican Candidates, Abortion, Addiction, Addiction, American History, Banking System, Bernie Sanders, Blogroll, Breaking News, Bribery, Bribes, Budgetary Policy, Cartoons, China, Climate Change, Communications, Congress, Constitutional Law, Corruption, Countries, Crime, Culture, Deep State, Defense Spending, Donald J. Trump, Donald Trump, Drugs, Eating, Economics, Education, Elizabeth Warren, Empires, Employment, European Union, Federal Government, First Amendment, Fiscal Policy, Food, Foreign Policy, Former President Barack Obama, Fourth Amendment, France, Free Trade, Freedom of Speech, Gangs, Germany, Government, Government Spending, Health, High Crimes, History, House of Representatives, Human, Human Behavior, Illegal Drugs, Illegal Drugs, Illegal Immigration, Immigration, Impeachment, Independence, Killing, Labor Economics, Language, Law, Legal Drugs, Legal Immigration, Life, Lying, Media, Medicare, Mental Illness, Military Spending, Monetary Policy, National Interest, News, North Korea, People, Pete Buttigieg, Public Corruption, Russia, Second Amendment, Senate, Social Security, Subversion, Tax Policy, Trade Policy, Unemployment, United States Constitution, United States of America, United States Supreme Court, Videos, Vietnam, Violence, War, Wealth, Welfare Spending, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

 

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Story 1: Judge John Koeltl in Manhattan United States District Court for The Southern District Permanently Dismisses Frivolous Democratic Party Lawsuit Against Trump’s Campaign Alleging Conspiracy with Russian Government and Wikileaks Without Merit — Trump Vindicated — Videos —

Trump says The Witch Hunt Ends after judge dismisses DNC lawsuit

BREAKING: Judge tosses DNC suit against Trump 2016, WikiLeaks

Federal Judge Permanently Dismisses DNC Suit Against Trump Campaign: The First Amendment Triumphs

U.S. District Judge (SDNY) John G. Koeltl held that the DNC raised a “number of connections and communications between the defendants and with people loosely connected” to Russia, but said that “at no point does the DNC allege any facts in the Second Amended Complaint to show that any of the defendants — other than the Russian Federation — participated in the theft of the DNC’s

 

Democrats’ Lawsuit Alleging Trump-Russia Conspiracy Is Dismissed

 

U.S. judge tosses Democratic Party lawsuit against Trump campaign, Russia over election

By Jan Wolfe

July 30 (Reuters) – A U.S. judge on Tuesday dismissed a Democratic Party lawsuit arguing that the Russian government, President Donald Trump´s campaign and WikiLeaks carried out a conspiracy to influence the 2016 U.S. election.

U.S. District Judge John Koeltl in Manhattan said he could not hear the claims against Russia, which were the focus of the case, because of a legal doctrine called sovereign immunity that shields foreign governments from litigation in the United States.

“The remedies for hostile actions by foreign governments are state actions, including sanctions imposed by the executive and legislative branches of government,” Koeltl’s written opinion said.

Koeltl also said holding WikiLeaks and the Trump campaign liable for dissemination of hacked emails would infringe on the First Amendment of the U.S. Constitution. The Democratic National Committee’s computer systems were hacked during the campaign and WikiLeaks published party emails.

Trump said on Twitter that the ruling was “yet another total & complete … vindication & exoneration” of him and his campaign, similar language he used in response to former Special Counsel Robert Mueller’s report on his investigation into Russian election interference.

Mueller https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-mueller/mueller-says-trump-was-not-exonerated-trump-declares-victory-idUSKCN1UJ0DF, in testimony to Congress last Wednesday, emphasized that he had not exonerated Trump and accused the president of not always being truthful, called his support for the 2016 release of stolen Democratic emails “problematic” and said Russia would again try to interfere in the 2020 U.S. elections.

A lawyer for the Democratic National Committee (DNC) did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Tuesday’s decision.

The DNC said in its lawsuit that top officials in Trump’s campaign conspired with the Russian government and its military spy agency to hurt Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and tilt the election to Trump. Moscow denies interfering in the election.

The lawsuit said that Trump´s campaign “gleefully welcomed Russia´s help” in the 2016 election and accuses it of being a “racketeering enterprise” that worked in tandem with Moscow.

“During the 2016 presidential campaign, Russia launched an all-out assault on our democracy and it found a willing and active partner in Donald Trump´s campaign,” DNC chair Tom Perez said at the time the lawsuit was filed. “This constituted an act of unprecedented treachery.”

The Mueller report released in April detailed numerous contacts between the Trump campaign and Russians but found insufficient evidence to establish a criminal conspiracy with Russia to sway the election.

The Trump campaign argued in court filings that Mueller’s report made clear that the DNC lawsuit was “frivolous” and that the DNC should be sanctioned for refusing to drop the case.

Koeltl denied the request, saying the case was “not so objectively unreasonable as to warrant the imposition of sanctions.” (Reporting by Jan Wolfe; editing by Grant McCool)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-7303721/U-S-judge-tosses-Democratic-Party-lawsuit-against-Trump-campaign-Russia-election.html

Judge Dismisses Democrats’ Suit Against Russia, Trump Campaign

DNC lawsuit alleged a conspiracy to hack into computer network and leak information damaging to Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign

A federal judge in Manhattan has dismissed a lawsuit filed by the Democratic National Committee against Russia, the Trump campaign, WikiLeaks and others, ruling the committee’s allegations of a wide-ranging conspiracy to interfere in the 2016 election were “moot or without merit.”

The lawsuit, filed in April 2018, alleged the defendants conspired to hack into the DNC’s computer network and strategically leak stolen information to undermine Hillary Clinton’s presidential campaign and improve Donald Trump’s odds of winning the election.

The defendants in the lawsuit included the Russian federation and the country’s military intelligence agency; WikiLeaks and its founder, Julian Assange; the Trump campaign and its onetime chairman, Paul Manafort; Mr. Trump’s son Donald Trump Jr., his son-in-law Jared Kushner and his longtime adviser Roger Stone, as well as others involved in the campaign.

In a written opinion issued Tuesday, U.S. District Judge John G. Koeltl held that Russia—which he said is ”the primary wrongdoer in this alleged criminal enterprise”—cannot be sued in U.S. courts for government actions, under federal law governing sovereign immunity.

“The remedies for hostile actions by foreign governments are state actions, including sanctions imposed by the executive and legislative branches of government,” Judge Koeltl wrote.

As for the other defendants, who are accused of disseminating the stolen materials, Judge Koeltl said the First Amendment protects such activities, “the same way it would preclude liability for press outlets that publish materials of public interest,” so long as they didn’t participate in wrongdoing to obtain them.

In a tweet, President Trump called the ruling “yet another total & complete…vindication & exoneration from the Russian, WikiLeaks and every other form of HOAX perpetrated by the DNC, Radical Democrats and others.”

In addition to having the lawsuit dismissed, the Trump campaign also sought to have the DNC and its lawyers sanctioned. Judge Koeltl denied that bid Tuesday.

The lawsuit’s allegations overlapped with concerns addressed by former special counsel Robert Mueller, who in April released a 448-page report detailing efforts by Russia to interfere in the 2016 election and its repeated contacts with Trump campaign officials, including the hacking of the DNC computer network.

While Mr. Mueller didn’t establish that the Trump campaign had knowingly conspired with the Russians, his office had previously charged dozens of Russian entities and individuals in connection with those alleged efforts. In light of the report, the Trump campaign had argued the DNC’s claims in the New York lawsuit were frivolous, while the DNC argued that the bar for criminal charges is higher than standards of proof in civil proceedings.

Mr. Mueller’s team secured the convictions of five Trump advisers, several of whom had lied to investigators about their contacts with Russian officials, including Mr. Manafort. Mr. Stone has pleaded not guilty to charges that he tried to obstruct a congressional inquiry into Russian interference.

Judge Koeltl’s ruling addressed a central concern about press freedoms raised in another case about WikiLeaks. In May, the U.S. Justice Department charged Mr. Assange with violating the Espionage Act for an alleged effort to obtain and publish classified information about the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. U.S. authorities are seeking to have Mr. Assange extradited from the U.K., where he was arrested in April.

Write to Rebecca Davis O’Brien at Rebecca.OBrien@wsj.com

Copyright ©2019 Dow Jones & Company, Inc. All Rights Reserved. 87990cbe856818d5eddac44c7b1cdeb8

Appeared in the July 31, 2019, print edition as ‘DNC Suit Charging Conspiracy Is Tossed.’

https://www.wsj.com/articles/judge-dismisses-democrats-suit-against-russia-trump-campaign-11564539167

 

Story 2: North Korea Again Mobile Launches Two Short-Range (250 KM) Missiles Threatening U.S. Ally South Korea — Videos —

 

North Korea fires two short-range ballistic missiles, S. Korea says

N. Korea fires 2 short-range ballistic missiles off east coast: JCS

N. Korea fires two short-range ballistic missiles towards East Sea on Wednesday

U.S. downplays North Korean missile tests

North Korea’s missile launch not likely to result in additional sanctions

North Korea fires two short-range missiles

North Korea fires two short-range missiles from coastal city

 

North Korean projectiles were ballistic missiles, flew about 250 km – S.Korea

he unidentified projectiles launched by North Korea early on Wednesday were ballistic missiles that flew about 250 km (155 miles), South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said.

The projectiles appeared to be a different type to previous launches, minister Jeong Kyeong-doo said, according to South Korean news agency Yonhap.

Japan’s defence minister said any ballistic missile launch by North Korea would violate United Nations resolutions, Japan’s Kyodo news agency reported. (Reporting by Josh Smith Editing by Paul Tait Editing by Paul Tait)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-7303743/North-Korean-projectiles-ballistic-missiles-flew-250-km–S-Korea.html

 

Story 3: Communist China Reconsiders Three-Child Policy as Population Growth Expected To Decline

Population pyramids: Powerful predictors of the future – Kim Preshoff

Which Countries Have Shrinking Populations?

Is the World Running Out of Children? (And Sperm??)

 

Facing Secrets from China’s Single Child Policy | Kate YiJia Yan | TEDxPuxi

History and its unspoken secrets have an impact on individuals, families and society. Part of China’s history was the single child policy. Psychotherapist, Yijia Yan, explains how secrets linked to the single child policy are affecting Chinese families, parents, and children today. As a psychotherapist and as a mother of two children, Kate’s professional activities are concentrated around enhancing knowledge about and providing professional support for children’s emotional and behavioral development in China. This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community.

The unintended consequences of China’s One Child Policy

One Child Policy Documentary

Video: Millions of single Chinese men desperately seeking a wife

Why China Ended its One-Child Policy

China encourages women to have more children

Object Lessons from the One-Child Policy | Mei Fong | TEDxPasadena

Why Are Millions of Chinese Kids Parenting Themselves?

Painful legacy of China’s one child policy – BBC News

Two Child Policy – China

Chinese province considers ‘three-child policy’ to halt population decline

China’s northeastern province of Liaoning is planning to loosen birth restrictions and allow some couples to have a third child in a bid to improve dwindling fertility rates and stop its workforce from declining.

China introduced a controversial “one-child policy” in 1978, but relaxed restrictions in 2016 to allow all couples to have two children as it tried to rebalance its rapidly ageing population.

However, experts have called for more radical measures, with birth rates still in decline and China’s health services and pension funds expected to come under increasing strain as the number of elderly people increases.

Liaoning’s provincial government said on its website on Tuesday that revising family planning regulations was one of its major priorities for 2019 after previous adjustments failed to arrest the decline in its population.

The rustbelt province has drafted new regulations aimed at improving education, housing and social security and providing more financial support for families choosing to have two children. It will also allow some couples living in “border areas” to have a third child.

While the central government imposes family planning rules nationwide through thousands of family planning offices, it gives leeway to some regions. Ethnic minorities have usually been exempt from birth restrictions and rural families have also been allowed to have more children.

Liaoning’s birth rate fell to 6.39 per 1,000 people last year, far lower than the national rate of 10.94. Its population also dropped for the second consecutive year in 2018, hit not only by the decline in new births but also by an exodus of young people seeking work in other regions.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-7303723/Chinese-province-considers-three-child-policy-halt-population-decline.html

 

One-child policy

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

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One-child policy
Jiayuguan-066.JPG

A Chinese mother and son at a market in JiayuguanGansu
Simplified Chinese 独生子女政策
Traditional Chinese 獨生子女政策

China’s one-child policy was part of a birth planning program designed to control the size of its population. Distinct from the family planning policies of most other countries (which focus on providing contraceptive options to help women have the number of children they want), it set a limit on the number of children parents could have, the world’s most extreme example of population planning. It was introduced in 1979 (after a decade-long two-child policy),[1] modified in the mid 1980s to allow rural parents a second child if the first was a daughter, and then lasted three more decades before being eliminated at the end of 2015. The policy also allowed exceptions for some other groups, including ethnic minorities. The term one-child policy is thus a misnomer, because for nearly 30 of the 37 years that it existed (1979–2015 included) about half of all parents in China were allowed to have a second child.

Provincial governments could, and did, require the use of contraception, sterilizations and abortions to ensure compliance, and imposed enormous fines for violations. Local and national governments created commissions to raise awareness and carry out registration and inspection work. China also rewards families with only one child. From 1982 onwards, in accordance with the instructions on further family planning issued by the CPC central committee and the state council in that year, regulations awarded 5 yuan per month for only children. Parents who had one child would also get a “one-child glory certificate”.[2]

According to the Chinese government, 400million births were prevented, starting from 1970, a decade before the start of the one child policy. Some scholars have disputed this claim, with Martin King Whyte and Wang et alcontending that the policy had little effect on population growth or the size of the total population.[3][4][5] China has been compared to countries with similar socioeconomic development like Thailand and Iran, along with the Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which achieved similar declines of fertility without a one-child policy.[6] However, a recent demographic study challenged these scholars by showing that China’s low fertility was achieved two or three decades earlier than would be expected given its level of development, and that more than 500 million births were prevented between 1970 and 2015 (a calculation based on an alternative model of fertility decline proposed by the scholars themselves),[4] some 400 million of which may have been due to one-child restrictions.[7] In addition, by 2060 China’s birth planning policies may have averted as many as 1 billion people in China when one adds in all the eliminated descendants of the births originally averted by the policies.[8][9] Although 76% of Chinese people said that they supported the policy in a 2008 survey, it was controversial outside of China.[10]

Effective from January 2016, the national birth planning policy became a universal two-child policy that allowed each couple to have two children.

China’s population since 1950

Contents

Background

Birth rate in China

During the period of Mao Zedong‘s leadership in China, the birth rate fell from 37 per thousand to 20 per thousand.[11] Infant mortality declined from 227 per thousand births in 1949 to 53 per thousand in 1981, and life expectancy dramatically increased from around 35 years in 1948 to 66 years in 1976.[11][12] Until the 1960s, the government encouraged families to have as many children as possible[13] because of Mao’s belief that population growth empowered the country, preventing the emergence of family planning programs earlier in China’s development.[14] The population grew from around 540million in 1949 to 940million in 1976.[15] Beginning in 1970, citizens were required to marry at later ages and many were limited to have only two children.[1]

Although China’s fertility rate plummeted faster than anywhere else in the world during the 1970s under these restrictions, the Chinese government thought that fertility was still too high, influenced by the global debate over a possible overpopulation catastrophe suggested by organizations such as Club of Rome and Sierra Club. It thus began to encourage one-child families in 1978, and then announced in 1979 its intention to advocate for one-child families. In 1980, the central government organized a meeting in Chengdu to discuss the speed and scope of one-child restrictions.[1]

One participant at the Chengdu meeting had read two influential books about population concerns, The Limits to Growth and A Blueprint for Survival while visiting Europe in 1979. That official, Song Jian, along with several associates, determined that the ideal population of China was 700million, and that a universal one-child policy for all would be required to meet that goal.[16] Moreover, Song and his group showed that if fertility rates remained constant at 3 births per woman, China’s population would surpass 3 billion by 2060 and 4 billion by 2080.[1] In spite of some criticism inside the party, the plan (also referred to as the Family Planning Policy[17]) was formally implemented as a temporary measure on 18 September 1980.[18][19][20][21] The plan called for families to have one child each in order to curb a then-surging population and alleviate social, economic, and environmental problems in China.[22][23]

Although a recent and often-repeated interpretation by Greenhalgh claims that Song Jian was the central architect of the one-child policy and that he “hijacked” the population policymaking process,[24] that claim has been refuted by several leading scholars, including Liang Zhongtang, a leading internal critic of one-child restrictions and an eye-witness at the discussions in Chengdu.[25] In the words of Wang et al., “the idea of the one-child policy came from leaders within the Party, not from scientists who offered evidence to support it”[3] Central officials had already decided in 1979 to advocate for one-child restrictions before knowing of Song’s work and, upon learning of his work in 1980, already seemed sympathetic to his position.[26] Moreover, even if Song’s work convinced them to proceed with universal one-child restrictions in 1980, the policy was loosened to a “1.5”-child policy just five years later, and it is that policy which has been misnomered since as the “one-child policy.” Thus, it is misleading to suggest that Song Jian was either the inventor or architect of the policy.

History

The one-child policy was originally designed to be a “One-Generation Policy”.[27] It was enforced at the provincial level and enforcement varied; some provinces had more relaxed restrictions. The one-child limit was most strictly enforced in densely populated urban areas.[28]

Beginning in 1980, the official policy granted local officials the flexibility to make exceptions and allow second children in the case of “practical difficulties” (such as cases in which the father was a disabled serviceman) or when both parents were single children,[29] and some provinces had other exemptions worked into their policies as well. In most areas, families were allowed to apply to have a second child if their first-born was a daughter.[30][31] Furthermore, families with children with disabilities have different policies and families whose first child suffers from physical disabilitymental illness, or intellectual disability were allowed to have more children.[32] However, second children were sometimes subject to birth spacing (usually 3 or 4 years). Children born in overseas countries were not counted under the policy if they did not obtain Chinese citizenship. Chinese citizens returning from abroad were allowed to have a second child.[33] Sichuan province allowed exemptions for couples of certain backgrounds.[34] By one estimate there were at least 22 ways in which parents could qualify for exceptions to the law towards the end of the one-child policy’s existence.[35] As of 2007, only 36% of the population were subjected to a strict one-child limit. 53% were permitted to have a second child if their first was a daughter; 9.6% of Chinese couples were permitted two children regardless of their gender; and 1.6% – mainly Tibetans – had no limit at all.[36]

The Danshan, Sichuan Province Nongchang Village people Public Affairs Bulletin Board in September 2005 noted that RMB 25,000 in social compensation fees were owed in 2005. Thus far 11,500 RMB had been collected, so another 13,500 RMB had to be collected.

Following the 2008 Sichuan earthquake, a new exception to the regulations was announced in Sichuan for parents who had lost children in the earthquake.[37][38] Similar exceptions had previously been made for parents of severely disabled or deceased children.[39] People have also tried to evade the policy by giving birth to a second child in Hong Kong, but at least for Guangdong residents, the one-child policy was also enforced if the birth was given in Hong Kong or abroad.[40]

In accordance with China’s affirmative action policies towards ethnic minorities, all non-Han ethnic groups are subjected to different laws and were usually allowed to have two children in urban areas, and three or four in rural areas. Han Chinese living in rural towns were also permitted to have two children.[41] Because of couples such as these, as well as who simply pay a fine (or “social maintenance fee”) to have more children,[42] the overall fertility rate of mainland China was close to 1.4 children per woman as of 2011.[43]

On 6 January 2010, the former national population and family planning commission issued the “national population development” 12th five-year plan.[44]

Enforcement

Chinese One-Child Policy propaganda from 1982

Financial

The Family Planning Policy was enforced through a financial penalty in the form of the “social child-raising fee”, sometimes called a “family planning fine” in the West, which was collected as a fraction of either the annual disposable income of city dwellers or of the annual cash income of peasants, in the year of the child’s birth.[45] For instance, in Guangdong, the fee was between 3 and 6 annual incomes for incomes below the per capita income of the district, plus 1 to 2 times the annual income exceeding the average. The family was required to pay the fine.[46]

Mandatory contraception and sterilization

As part of the policy, women were required to have a contraceptive intrauterine device (IUD) surgically installed after having a first child, and to be sterilized by tubal ligation after having a second child. From 1980 to 2014, 324 million Chinese women were fitted with IUDs in this way and 108 million were sterilized. Women who refused these procedures – which many resented – could lose their government employment and their children could lose access to education or health services. The IUDs installed in this way were modified such that they could not be removed manually, but only through surgery.

In 2016, following the abolition of the one-child policy, the Chinese government announced that IUD removals would now be paid for by the government.[47]

Relaxation

In 2013, Deputy Director Wang Peian of the National Health and Family Planning Commission said that “China’s population will not grow substantially in the short term”.[48] A survey by the commission found that only about half of eligible couples wish to have two children, mostly because of the cost of living impact of a second child.[49]

In November 2013, following the Third Plenum of the 18th Central Committee of the Chinese Communist Party, China announced the decision to relax the one-child policy. Under the new policy, families could have two children if one parent, rather than both parents, was an only child.[50][51] This mainly applied to urban couples, since there were very few rural only children due to long-standing exceptions to the policy for rural couples.[52] Zhejiang, one of the most affluent provinces, became the first area to implement this “relaxed policy” in January 2014,[53] and 29 out of the 31 provinces had implemented it by July 2014,[54] with the exceptions of Xinjiang and Tibet. Under this policy, approximately 11million couples in China are allowed to have a second child; however, only “nearly one million” couples applied to have a second child in 2014,[55] less than half the expected number of 2 million per year.[54] By May 2014, 241,000 out of 271,000 applications had been approved. Officials of China’s National Health and Family Planning Commission claimed that this outcome was expected, and that “second-child policy” would continue progressing with a good start.[56]

In 2016, 433 births and 211 deaths were recorded in Wulipu, Hubei. The birth rate was 8.9% and death rate was 4.3% resulting in a natural population increase of 4.6%.[57] In the results of a separate survey published by the Shayang County government, Wulipu’s population had increased from 48,044 to 48,132 during a survey period. 424 children were born during the survey period resulting in a birth rate of 8.82%. During the same period, 63 people died, resulting in death rate of 1.31%. Of the births in the survey, 406 (95.75%) were in compliance with the family planning policy of China. 312 (73.58%) of the births were the firstborn in the family. (All of these births were in compliance with the family planning policy of China.) Among the firstborn children, 157 were female. 107 (25.24%) of the births were the second-born child in the family. 90 of these births were in compliance with the family planning policy of China. Among the second-born children, 47 were female. Five (1.18%) of the births surveyed were neither the firstborn nor second-born child in the family. Four of these births were in compliance with the family planning policy of China. Among the children born who were neither firstborn nor second-born, two were female.[58]

Abolition

In October 2015, the Chinese news agency Xinhua announced plans of the government to abolish the one-child policy, now allowing all families to have two children, citing from a communiqué issued by the Communist Party “to improve the balanced development of population” – an apparent reference to the country’s female-to-male sex ratio – and to deal with an aging population according to the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation.[22][59][60][61][62][63][64][65] The new law took effect on 1 January 2016 after it was passed in the standing committee of the National People’s Congress on 27 December 2015.[66][67]

The rationale for the abolition was summarized by former Wall Street Journal reporter Mei Fong: “The reason China is doing this right now is because they have too many men, too many old people, and too few young people. They have this huge crushing demographic crisis as a result of the one-child policy. And if people don’t start having more children, they’re going to have a vastly diminished workforce to support a huge aging population.”[68] China’s ratio is about five working adults to one retiree; the huge retiree community must be supported, and that will dampen future growth, according to Fong.

Since the citizens of China are living longer and having fewer children, the growth of the population imbalance is expected to continue, as reported by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation which referred to a United Nations projections forecast that “China will lose 67million working-age people by 2030, while simultaneously doubling the number of elderly. That could put immense pressure on the economy and government resources.”[22] The longer term outlook is also pessimistic, based on an estimate by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, revealed by Cai Fang, deputy director. “By 2050, one-third of the country will be aged 60 years or older, and there will be fewer workers supporting each retired person.”[69]

Although many critics of China’s reproductive restrictions approve of the policy’s abolition, Amnesty International said that the move to the two-child policy would not end forced sterilizations, forced abortions, or government control over birth permits.[70][71] Others also stated that the abolition is not a sign of the relaxation of authoritarian control in China. A reporter for CNN said, “It was not a sign that the party will suddenly start respecting personal freedoms more than it has in the past. No, this is a case of the party adjusting policy to conditions. … The new policy, raising the limit to two children per couple, preserves the state’s role.”[72][73]

The abolition may not achieve a significant benefit, as the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation analysis indicated: “Repealing the one-child policy may not spur a huge baby boom, however, in part because fertility rates are believed to be declining even without the policy’s enforcement. Previous easings of the one-child policy have spurred fewer births than expected, and many people among China’s younger generations see smaller family sizes as ideal.”[22] The CNN reporter adds that China’s new prosperity is also a factor in the declining[69] birth rate, saying, “Couples naturally decide to have fewer children as they move from the fields into the cities, become more educated, and when women establish careers outside the home.”[72]

The Chinese government had expected the abolishing of the one-child rule would lead to an increase in births to about 21.9 million births in 2018. The actual number of births was 15.2 million – the lowest birth rate since 1961.[74]

Administration

The one-child policy was managed by the National Population and Family Planning Commission under the central government since 1981. The Ministry of Health of the People’s Republic of China and the National Health and Family Planning Commission were made defunct and a new single agency National Health and Family Planning Commission took over national health and family planning policies in 2013. The agency reports to the State Council.

The policy was enforced at the provincial level through fines that were imposed based on the income of the family and other factors. “Population and Family Planning Commissions” existed at every level of government to raise awareness and carry out registration and inspection work.[75]

Effects

Fertility reduction: Debates over the roles of policy vs. socio-economic change

The progression of China’s population pyramidInternational Futures.

The fertility rate in China continued its fall from 2.8 births per woman in 1979 (already a sharp reduction from more than five births per woman in the early 1970s) to 1.5 by the mid 1990s. Some scholars claim that this decline is similar to that observed in other places that had no one-child restrictions, such as Thailand as well as Indian states of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, a claim designed to support the argument that China’s fertility might have fallen to such levels anyway without draconian fertility restrictions.[3][76][6][77]

According to a 2017 study in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, “the one-child policy accelerated the already-occurring drop in fertility for a few years, but in the longer term, economic development played a more fundamental role in leading to and maintaining China’s low fertility level.”.[78] However, a more recent study found that China’s fertility decline to very low levels by the mid 1990s was far more impressive given its lower level of socio-economic development at that time;[9] even after taking rapid economic development into account, China’s fertility restrictions likely averted over 500 million births between 1970 and 2015, with the portion caused by one-child restrictions possibly totaling 400 million.[7] Fertility restrictions also had other unintended consequences, such as a deficit of 40 million female babies. Most of this deficit was due to sex-selective abortion as well as the 1.5 child stopping rule, which required rural parents to stop childbearing if their first born was a son.[79] Another consequence was the acceleration of the aging of China’s population.[80][81]

Disparity in sex ratio at birth

The sex ratio at birth in People’s Republic of China, males per 100 females, 1980–2010.

The sex ratio of a newborn infant (between male and female births) in mainland China reached 117:100, and stabilized between 2000 and 2013, about 10% higher than the baseline, which ranges between 103:100 and 107:100. It had risen from 108:100 in 1981—at the boundary of the natural baseline—to 111:100 in 1990.[82] According to a report by the National Population and Family Planning Commission, there will be 30million more men than women in 2020, potentially leading to social instability, and courtship-motivated emigration.[83]

The disparity in the gender ratio at birth increases dramatically after the first birth, for which the ratios remained steadily within the natural baseline over the 20 year interval between 1980 and 1999. Thus, a large majority of couples appear to accept the outcome of the first pregnancy, whether it is a boy or a girl. If the first child is a girl, and they are able to have a second child, then a couple may take extraordinary steps to assure that the second child is a boy. If a couple already has two or more boys, the sex ratio of higher parity births swings decidedly in a feminine direction. This demographic evidence indicates that while families highly value having male offspring, a secondary norm of having a girl or having some balance in the sexes of children often comes into play. Zeng 1993 reported a study based on the 1990 census in which they found sex ratios of just 65 or 70 boys per 100 girls for births in families that already had two or more boys.[84] A study by Anderson & Silver (1995) found a similar pattern among both Han and non-Han nationalities in Xinjiang Province: a strong preference for girls in high parity births in families that had already borne two or more boys.[85] This tendency to favour girls in high parity births to couples who had already borne sons was later also noted by Coale and Banister, who suggested as well that once a couple had achieved its goal for the number of males, it was also much more likely to engage in “stopping behavior”, i.e., to stop having more children.[86]

The long-term disparity has led to a significant gender imbalance or skewing of the sex ratio. As reported by the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation, China has between 32million and 36million more males than would be expected naturally, and this has led to social problems. “Because of a traditional preference for baby boys over girls, the one-child policy is often cited as the cause of China’s skewed sex ratio … Even the government acknowledges the problem and has expressed concern about the tens of millions of young men who won’t be able to find brides and may turn to kidnapping women, sex trafficking, other forms of crime or social unrest.”[22] The situation will not improve in the near future. According to the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, there will be 24 million more men than women of marriageable age by 2020.[87]

Education

According to a 2017 study in the Journal of Economic Perspectives, “existing studies indicate either a modest or minimal effect of the fertility change induced by the one-child policy on children education”.[78]

Adoption and abandonment

A roadside sign in rural Sichuan: “It is forbidden to discriminate against, mistreat or abandon baby girls.”

For parents who had “unauthorized” births or who wanted a son but had a daughter, giving up the child for adoption was a kind of strategy to avoid penalties under one-child restrictions. In fact, “out adoption” was not uncommon in China even before birth planning. In the 1980s, adoptions of daughters accounted for slightly above half of the so-called “missing girls”, as out-adopted daughters often went unreported in censuses and survey and adoptive parents were not penalized for violating birth quotas [88] However, in 1991, a central decree attempted to close off this loophole by raising penalties and levying those penalties on any household that had an “unauthorized” child, including those that had adopted children.[89] This closing of the adoption loophole resulted in the abandonment of some two million Chinese children (mostly daughters),[9] many of who ended up in orphanages, some 120,000 of whom would be adopted by international parents.

The peak wave of abandonment occurred in the 1990s, with a smaller wave after 2000.[89] Around the same time, poor care and high mortality rates in some state orphanages generated intense international pressure for reform.[90][91]

After 2005, the number of international adoptions declined, due both to falling birth rates and the related increase in demand for adoptions by Chinese parents themselves. In an interview with National Public Radio on 30 October 2015, Adam Pertman,[92] president and CEO of the National Center on Adoption and Permanency, indicated that “the infant girls of yesteryear have not been available, if you will, for five, seven years. China has been … trying to keep the girls within the country … And the consequence is that, today, rather than those young girls who used to be available – primarily girls – today, it’s older children, children with special needs, children in sibling groups. It’s very, very different.”[93]

Twins

Since there are no penalties for multiple births, it is believed that an increasing number of couples are turning to fertility medicines to induce the conception of twins. According to a 2006 China Daily report, the number of twins born per year was estimated to have doubled.[timeframe?][94]

Quality of life for women

Some sources state that the one-child policy has played a major role in improving the quality of life for women in China.[citation needed] Proponents of this view hold that with the one-child policy, gender equality started to be emphasized in China and women had the same opportunity to be educated as men.[citation needed] For thousands of years, girls have held a lower status in Chinese households. However, the one-child policy’s limit on the number of children has prompted parents of women to start investing money in their well-being. As a result of being an only child, women have increased opportunity to receive an education, and support to get better jobs. One of the side effects of the one-child policy is to have liberated women from heavy duties in terms of taking care of many children and the family in the past; instead women had a lot of spare time for themselves to pursue their career or hobbies. The other major “side effect” of the one child policy is that the traditional concepts of gender roles between men and women have weakened. Being one and the only “chance” the parents have, women are expected to compete with peer men for better educational resources or career opportunities. Especially in cities where one-child policy was much more regulated and enforced, expectations on women to succeed in life are no less than on men. Recent data has shown that the proportion of women attending college is higher than that of men. The policy also has a positive effect of the policy fines at 10 to 19 years of age on the likelihood of completing senior high school in women of Han ethnicity. At the same time, the one-child policy reduces the economic burden for each family. The condition for each family has become better. As a result, women also have much more freedom within the family.They are supported by their family to pursue their life achievements.[95]

Healthcare improvements

It is reported that the focus of China on population planning helps provide a better health service for women and a reduction in the risks of death and injury associated with pregnancy. At family planning offices, women receive free contraception and pre-natal classes that contributed to the policy’s success in two respects. First, the average Chinese household expends fewer resources, both in terms of time and money, on children, which gives many Chinese people more money with which to invest. Second, since Chinese adults can no longer rely on children to care for them in their old age, there is an impetus to save money for the future.[96]

“Four-two-one” problem

A white sign with two lines of red Chinese characters and a smaller one beneath them on a background of white tile

A government sign in Tangshan Township: “For a prosperous, powerful nation and a happy family, please practice family planning.”

As the first generation of law-enforced only-children came of age for becoming parents themselves, one adult child was left with having to provide support for his or her two parents and four grandparents.[97][98] Called the “4-2-1 Problem”, this leaves the older generations with increased chances of dependency on retirement funds or charity in order to receive support. If not for personal savings, pensions, or state welfare, most senior citizens would be left entirely dependent upon their very small family or neighbours for assistance. If, for any reason, the single child is unable to care for their older adult relatives, the oldest generations would face a lack of resources and necessities. In response to such an issue, by 2007, all provinces in the nation except Henan had adopted a new policy allowing couples to have two children if both parents were only children themselves;[99][failed verification][100] Henan followed in 2011.[101]

Unregistered children

Heihaizi (Chinese黑孩子pinyinhēiháizi) or “black child” is a term denoting children born outside the one-child policy, or generally children who are not registered in the Chinese national household registration system.

Being excluded from the family register means they do not possess a Hukou, which is “an identifying document, similar in some ways to the American social security card.”[102] In this respect they do not legally exist and as a result cannot access most public services, such as education and health care, and do not receive protection under the law.[103][104][105]

Potential social problems

Some parents may over-indulge their only child. The media referred to the indulged children in one-child families as “little emperors“.[106] Since the 1990s, some people have worried that this will result in a higher tendency toward poor social communication and cooperation skills amongst the new generation, as they have no siblings at home. No social studies have investigated the ratio of these so-called “over-indulged” children and to what extent they are indulged. With the first generation of children born under the policy (which initially became a requirement for most couples with first children born starting in 1979 and extending into the 1980s) reaching adulthood, such worries were reduced.[107]

However, the “little emperor syndrome” and additional expressions, describing the generation of Chinese singletons are very abundant in the Chinese media, Chinese academia and popular discussions. Being over-indulged, lacking self-discipline and having no adaptive capabilities are traits that are highly associated with Chinese singletons.[108]

Some 30 delegates called on the government in the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference in March 2007 to abolish the one-child rule, citing “social problems and personality disorders in young people”. One statement read, “It is not healthy for children to play only with their parents and be spoiled by them: it is not right to limit the number to two children per family, either.”[109] The proposal was prepared by Ye Tingfang, a professor at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, who suggested that the government at least restore the previous rule that allowed couples to have up to two children. According to a scholar, “The one-child limit is too extreme. It violates nature’s law. And in the long run, this will lead to mother nature’s revenge.”[109][110]

Birth tourism

Reports surfaced of Chinese women giving birth to their second child overseas, a practice known as birth tourism. Many went to Hong Kong, which is exempt from the one-child policy. Likewise, a Hong Kong passport differs from China mainland passport by providing additional advantages. Recently though, the Hong Kong government has drastically reduced the quota of births set for non-local women in public hospitals. As a result, fees for delivering babies there have surged. As further admission cuts or a total ban on non-local births in Hong Kong are being considered, mainland agencies that arrange for expectant mothers to give birth overseas are predicting a surge in those going to North America.[111][unreliable source?]

As the United States practises birthright citizenship, all children born in the US will automatically have US citizenship. The closest US location from China is Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands, a US dependency in the western Pacific Ocean that allows Chinese visitors without visa restrictions. As of 2012, the island was experiencing an upswing in Chinese births, since birth tourism there had become cheaper than to Hong Kong. This option is used by relatively affluent Chinese who often have secondary motives as well, wishing their children to be able to leave mainland China when they grow older or bring their parents to the US. Canada, compared to US, is less achievable as their government denies many visa requests.[112][113]

Sex-selective abortion

Due to the preference in Rural Chinese society to give birth to a son,[114] pre-natal sex determination and sex-selective abortions are illegal in China.[115] Often argued as one of the key factors in the imbalanced sex-ratio in China, as excess female infant mortality and underreporting of female births cannot solely explain this gender disparity.[116] Researchers have found that the gender of the firstborn child in rural parts of China impact whether or not the mother will seek an ultrasound for the second child. 40% of women with a firstborn son seek an ultrasound for their second pregnancy, versus 70% of women with firstborn daughters. This clearly depicts a desire for women to birth a son if one has not yet been birthed.[117] In response to this, the Chinese government made sex-selective abortions illegal in 2005.[117]

Criticism

The policy is controversial outside China for many reasons, including accusations of human rights abuses in the implementation of the policy, as well as concerns about negative social consequences.[118]

Statement of the effect of the policy on birth reduction

The Chinese government, quoting Zhai Zhenwu, director of Renmin University’s School of Sociology and Population in Beijing, estimates that 400million births were prevented by the one-child policy as of 2011, while some demographers challenge that number, putting the figure at perhaps half that level, according to CNN.[119] Zhai clarified that the 400million estimate referred not just to the one-child policy, but includes births prevented by predecessor policies implemented one decade before, stating that “there are many different numbers out there but it doesn’t change the basic fact that the policy prevented a really large number of births”.[120]

This claim is disputed by Wang Feng, director of the Brookings-Tsinghua Center for Public Policy, and Cai Yong from the Carolina Population Center at University of North Carolina Chapel Hill[120] Wang claims that “Thailand and China have had almost identical fertility trajectories since the mid 1980s”, and “Thailand does not have a one-child policy.”[120] China’s Health Ministry has also disclosed that at least 336million abortions were performed on account of the policy.[121]

According to a report by the US Embassy, scholarship published by Chinese scholars and their presentations at the October 1997 Beijing conference of the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population seemed to suggest that market-based incentives or increasing voluntariness is not morally better but that it is in the end more effective.[122] In 1988, Zeng Yi and Professor T. Paul Schultz of Yale University discussed the effect of the transformation to the market on Chinese fertility, arguing that the introduction of the contract responsibility system in agriculture during the early 1980s weakened family planning controls during that period.[123] Zeng contended that the “big cooking pot” system of the People’s Communes had insulated people from the costs of having many children. By the late 1980s, economic costs and incentives created by the contract system were already reducing the number of children farmers wanted.

A long-term experiment in a county in Shanxi, in which the family planning law was suspended, suggested that families would not have many more children even if the law were abolished.[35] A 2003 review of the policy-making process behind the adoption of the one-child policy shows that less intrusive options, including those that emphasized delay and spacing of births, were known but not fully considered by China’s political leaders.[124]

Unequal enforcement

Corrupted government officials and especially wealthy individuals have often been able to violate the policy in spite of fines.[125] Filmmaker Zhang Yimou had three children and was subsequently fined 7.48million yuan ($1.2million).[126] For example, between 2000 and 2005, as many as 1,968 officials in Hunan province were found to be violating the policy, according to the provincial family planning commission; also exposed by the commission were 21 national and local lawmakers, 24 political advisors, 112 entrepreneurs and 6 senior intellectuals.[125]

Some of the offending officials did not face penalties,[125] although the government did respond by raising fines and calling on local officials to “expose the celebrities and high-income people who violate the family planning policy and have more than one child”.[125] Also, people who lived in the rural areas of China were allowed to have two children without punishment, although the family is required to wait a couple of years before having another child.[127]

Human rights violations

The one-child policy has been challenged for violating a human right to determine the size of one’s own proper family. According to a 1968 proclamation of the International Conference on Human Rights, “Parents have a basic human right to determine freely and responsibly the number and the spacing of their children.”[128][129]

According to the UK newspaper The Daily Telegraph, a quota of 20,000 abortions and sterilizations was set for Huaiji CountyGuangdong in one year due to reported disregard of the one-child policy. According to the article local officials were being pressured into purchasing portable ultrasound devices to identify abortion candidates in remote villages. The article also reported that women as far along as 8.5 months pregnant were forced to abort, usually by an injection of saline solution.[130] A 1993 book by social scientist Steven W. Mosher reported that women in their ninth month of pregnancy, or already in labour, were having their children killed whilst in the birth canal or immediately after birth.[131]

According to a 2005 news report by Australian Broadcasting Corporation correspondent John Taylor, China outlawed the use of physical force to make a woman submit to an abortion or sterilization in 2002 but ineffectively enforces the measure.[132] In 2012, Feng Jianmei, a villager from Shaanxi province was forced into an abortion by local officials after her family refused to pay the fine for having a second child. Chinese authorities have since apologized and two officials were fired, while five others were sanctioned.[133]

In the past, China promoted eugenics as part of its population planning policies, but the government has backed away from such policies, as evidenced by China’s ratification of the Convention on the Rights of Persons with Disabilities, which compels the nation to significantly reform its genetic testing laws.[134] Recent[when?] research has also emphasized the necessity of understanding a myriad of complex social relations that affect the meaning of informed consent in China.[135] Furthermore, in 2003, China revised its marriage registration regulations and couples no longer have to submit to a pre-marital physical or genetic examination before being granted a marriage license.[136]

The United Nations Population Fund‘s (UNFPA) support for family planning in China, which has been associated with the One-Child policy in the United States, led the United States Congress to pull out of the UNFPA during the Reagan administration,[137] and again under George W. Bush‘s presidency, citing human rights abuses[138] and stating that the right to “found a family” was protected under the Preamble in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights.[139] President Obama resumed U.S. government financial support for the UNFPA shortly after taking office in 2009, intending to “work collaboratively to reduce poverty, improve the health of women and children, prevent HIV/AIDS and provide family planning assistance to women in 154 countries”.[140][141]

Effect on infanticide rates

Sex-selected abortion, abandonment, and infanticide are illegal in China. Nevertheless, the United States Department of State,[142] the Parliament of the United Kingdom,[143] and the human rights organization Amnesty International[144] have all declared that infanticide still exists.[145][146][147] A writer for the Georgetown Journal of International Affairs wrote, “The ‘one-child’ policy has also led to what Amartya Sen first called ‘Missing Women’, or the 100million girls ‘missing’ from the populations of China (and other developing countries) as a result of female infanticide, abandonment, and neglect”.[148]

The Canadian Broadcasting Corporation offered the following summary as to the long term effects of sex-selective abortion and abandonment of female infants:

Multiple research studies have also found that sex-selective abortion – where a woman undergoes an ultrasound to determine the sex of her baby, and then aborts it if it’s a girl – was widespread for years, particularly for second or subsequent children. Millions of female fetuses have been aborted since the 1970s. China outlawed sex selective abortions in 2005, but the law is tough to enforce because of the difficulty of proving why a couple decided to have an abortion. The abandonment, and killing, of baby girls has also been reported, though recent research studies say it has become rare, in part due to strict criminal prohibitions.[22]

Anthropologist G. William Skinner at the University of California, Davis and Chinese researcher Yuan Jianhua have claimed that infanticide was fairly common in China before the 1990s.[149]

In popular culture

  • Ball, David (2002). China RunSimon & SchusterISBN978-0-74322743-8. A novel about an American woman who travels to China to adopt an orphan of the one-child policy, only to find herself a fugitive when the Chinese government informs her that she has been given “the wrong baby”.
  • The prevention of a state-imposed abortion during labor to conform with the one child policy is a key plot point in Tom Clancy‘s novel The Bear and the Dragon.
  • The difficulties of implementing the one-child policy are dramatized in Mo Yan‘s novel Frog (2009; English translation by Howard Goldblatt, 2015).
  • Avoiding the family-planning enforcers is at the heart of Ma Jian‘s novel The Dark Road (translated by Flora Drew, 2013).
  • Novelist Lu Min writes about her own family’s experience with the One Child Policy in her essay “A Second Pregnancy, 1980” (translated by Helen Wang, 2015).[150]
  • Xue, Xinran (2015). Buy Me the SkyRider (imprint)ISBN978-1-8460-4471-7. Tells the stories of the children brought up under China’s one-child policy and the effect that has had on their lives, families and ability to deal with life’s challenges.
  • Fong, Mei (2016). One Child: The Story of China’s Most Radical Experiment. Houghton Mifflin Harcourt. ISBN 9780544275393.

See also

General:

References …

Further reading

External links

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Population pyramid

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This distribution is named for the frequently pyramidal shape of its graph.

population pyramid, also called an “age-sex- pyramid“, is a graphical illustration that shows the distribution of various age groups in a population (typically that of a country or region of the world), which forms the shape of a pyramid when the population is growing.[1] Males are conventionally shown on the left and females on the right, and they may be measured by raw number or as a percentage of the total population. This tool can be used to visualize and age of a particular population.[2] It is also used in ecology to determine the overall age distribution of a population; an indication of the reproductive capabilities and likelihood of the continuation of a species.

Contents

Structure

Population pyramids often contain continuous stacked-histogram bars, making it a horizontal bar diagram. The population size is depicted on the x-axis (horizontal) while the age-groups are represented on the y-axis (vertical).[3] The size of the population can either be measured as a percentage of the total population or by raw number. Males are conventionally shown on the left and females on the right. Population pyramids are often viewed as the most effective way to graphically depict the age and distribution of a population, partly because of the very clear image these pyramids represent.[4] A great deal of information about the population broken down by age and sex can be read from a population pyramid, and this can shed light on the extent of development and other aspects of the population.

The measures of central tendency, mean, median, and mode, should be considered when assessing a population pyramid. since the data is not completely accurate. For example, the average age could be used to determine the type of population in a particular region. A population with an average age of 15 would have a young population compared to a population that has an average age of 55, which would be considered an older population. It is also important to consider these measures because the collected data is not completely accurate. The mid-year population is often used in calculations to account for the number of births and deaths that occur.

A population pyramid gives a clear picture of how a country transitions from high fertility to low fertility rate. The broad base of the pyramid means the majority of population lies between ages 0–14, which tells us that the fertility rate of the country is high and above population sub-replacement fertility level. The older population is declining over time due to a shorter life expectancy of sixty years.[5] However, there are still more females than males in these ranges since women have a longer life expectancy. As reported by the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, women tend to live longer than men because women do not partake in risky behaviors. Also, Weeks’ Population: an Introduction to Concepts and Issues, considered that the sex ratio gap for the older ages will shrink due to women’s health declining due to the effects of smoking, as suggested by the United Nations and U.S. Census Bureau. Moreover, it can also reveal the age-dependency ratio of a population. Populations with a big base, young population, or a big top, an older population, shows that there is a higher dependency ratio. The dependency ratio refers to how many people are dependent on the working class (ages 15–64). According to Weeks’ Population: an Introduction to Concepts and Issues, population pyramids can be used to predict the future, known as a population forecast. Population momentum, when a population’s birth rates continue to increase even after replacement level has been reached, can even be predicted if a population has a low mortality rate since the population will continue to grow. This then brings up the term doubling time, which is used to predict when the population will double in size. Lastly, a population pyramid can even give insight on the economic status of a country from the age stratification since the distribution of supplies are not evenly distributed through a population.

In the demographic transition model, the size and shape of population pyramids vary. In stage one of the demographic transition model, the pyramids have the most defined shape. They have the ideal big base and skinny top. In stage two, the pyramid looks similar, but starts to widen in the middle age groups. In stage three, the pyramids start to round out and look similar in shape to a tombstone. In stage four, there is a decrease in the younger age groups. This causes the base of the widened pyramid to narrow. Lastly, in stage five, the pyramid starts to take on the shape of a kite as the base continues to decrease. The shape of the population is dependent upon what the economy is like in the country. More developed countries can be found in stages three four and five while the least developed countries have a population represented by the pyramids in stages one and two.

Types

Each country will have different or unique population pyramids. However, population pyramids will be defined as the following: stationary, expansive, or constrictive. These types have been identified by the fertility and mortality rates of a country.[6]

“Stationary” pyramid
A pyramid can be described as stationary if the percentages of population (age and sex) remains constant over time.[7] Stationary population is when a population contains equal birth rates and death rates.[7]
“Expansive” pyramid
A population pyramid that is very wide at the younger ages, characteristic of countries with high birth rate and low life expectancy.[6] The population is said to be fast-growing, and the size of each birth cohort gets larger than the size of the previous year.[8]
“Constrictive” pyramid
A population pyramid that is narrowed at the bottom. The population is generally older on average, as the country has long life expectancy, a low death rate, but also a low birth rate.[6] However, the percentage of younger population are extremely low, this can cause issues with dependency ratio of the population.[8] This pyramid is more common when immigrants are factored out. This is a typical pattern for a very developed country, a high level of education, easy access to and incentive to use birth control, good health care, and few negative environmental factors.[9]

Youth bulge phenomenon

Median age by country. A youth bulge is evident for Africa, and to a lesser extent for West Asia, South Asia, Southeast Asia and Central America.

Map of countries by fertility rate (2018), according to CIA World Factbook

Gary Fuller (1995) described Youth bulge as a type of expansive pyramid. Gunnar Heinsohn (2003) argues that an excess in especially young adult male population predictably leads to social unrest, war and terrorism, as the “third and fourth sons” that find no prestigious positions in their existing societies rationalize their impetus to compete by religion or political ideology.

Heinsohn claims that most historical periods of social unrest lacking external triggers (such as rapid climatic changes or other catastrophic changes of the environment) and most genocides can be readily explained as a result of a built-up youth bulge, including European colonialism, 20th-century fascism, rise of Communism during the Cold War, and ongoing conflicts such as that in Darfur and terrorism.[10] This factor has been also used to account for the Arab Spring events.[11] Economic recessions, such as the Great Depression of the 1930s and the Late 2000’s recession, are also claimed to be explained in part due to a large youth population who cannot find jobs.[11] Youth bulge can be seen as one factor among many in explaining social unrest and uprisings in society.[12] A 2016 study finds that youth bulges increases the chances of non-ethnic civil wars, but not ethnic civil wars.[13]

A large population of adolescents entering the labor force and electorate strains at the seams of the economy and polity, which were designed for smaller populations. This creates unemployment and alienation unless new opportunities are created quickly enough – in which case a ‘demographic dividend’ accrues because productive workers outweigh young and elderly dependents. Yet the 16–30 age range is associated with risk-taking, especially among males. In general, youth bulges in developing countries are associated with higher unemployment and, as a result, a heightened risk of violence and political instability.[14][15] For Cincotta and Doces (2011), the transition to more mature age structures is almost a sine qua non for democratization.[16]

To reverse the effects of youth bulges, specific policies such as creating more jobs, improving family planning programs, and reducing over all infant mortality rates should be a priority.[17]

Middle East and North Africa

The Middle East and North Africa are currently experiencing a prominent youth bulge. “Across the Middle East, countries have experienced a pronounced increase in the size of their youth populations over recent decades, both in total numbers and as a percentage of the total population. Today, the nearly 111 million individuals aging between 15 to 29 living across the region make up nearly 27 percent of the region’s population.” [18] Structural changes in service provision, especially health care, beginning in the 1960s created the conditions for a demographic explosion, which has resulted in a population consisting primarily of younger people. It is estimated that around 65% of the regional population is under the age of 30.[19]

The Middle East has invested more in education, including religious education, than most other regions such that education is available to most children.[20] However, that education has not led to higher levels of employment, and youth unemployment is currently at 25%, the highest of any single region.[21] Of this 25%, over half are first time entrants into the job market.[20]

The youth bulge in the Middle East and North Africa has been favorably compared to that of East Asia, which harnessed this human capital and saw huge economic growth in recent decades.[22] The youth bulge has been referred to by the Middle East Youth Initiative as a demographic gift, which, if engaged, could fuel regional economic growth and development.[23] “While the growth of the youth population imposes supply pressures on education systems and labor markets, it also means that a growing share of the overall population is made up of those considered to be of working age; and thus not dependent on the economic activity of others. In turn, this declining dependency ratio can have a positive impact on overall economic growth, creating a demographic dividend. The ability of a particular economy to harness this dividend, however, is dependent on its ability to ensure the deployment of this growing working-age population towards productive economic activity, and to create the jobs necessary for the growing labor force.” [18]

See also

References

  1. ^ “Population Pyramids of the World from 1950 to 2100”PopulationPyramid.net. Retrieved 21 April 2018.
  2. ^ Weeks, John (2001). Population An introduction to concepts and issues. Wadsworth. p. 307.
  3. ^ “population pyramid | sociology”Encyclopedia Britannica. Retrieved 2017-03-29.
  4. ^ Department of Health Home Archived 2009-08-30 at the Wayback Machine
  5. ^ “From Population Pyramids to Pillars”http://www.prb.org. Retrieved 2017-03-29.
  6. Jump up to:a b c Population Pyramids – Oregon State University
  7. Jump up to:a b Weeks, John (2011). Population An Introduction to concepts and issues. Wadsworth. p. 309. ISBN 978-1305094505.
  8. Jump up to:a b Korenjak-Cˇ erne, Kejžar, Batagelj (2008). “Clustering of Population Pyramids”. Informatica32.
  9. ^ Boucher, Lauren (10 March 2016). “What are the different types of population pyramids?”http://www.populationeducation.org. Retrieved 29 March 2017.
  10. ^ “Why a two-state solution doesn’t guarantee peace in the Middle East”Washington Examiner. Retrieved 2017-04-05.
  11. Jump up to:a b Korotayev A. et al.A Trap At The Escape From The Trap? Demographic-Structural Factors of Political Instability in Modern Africa and West Asia. Cliodynamics 2/2 (2011): 1-28.
  12. ^ “The Effects of ‘Youth Bulge’ on Civil Conflicts”. Retrieved 21 April 2018.
  13. ^ Yair, Omer; Miodownik, Dan (2016-02-01). “Youth bulge and civil war: Why a country’s share of young adults explains only non-ethnic wars”Conflict Management and Peace Science33(1): 25–44. doi:10.1177/0738894214544613ISSN 0738-8942.
  14. ^ Huntington, Samuel P. 1996. The Clash of Civilizations and the Remaking of World Order. New York, NY: Simon and Schuster
  15. ^ Urdal, Henrik. 2006. “A Clash of Generations? Youth Bulges and Political Violence.” International Studies Quarterly 50:607-29 doi:10.1111/j.1468-2478.2006.00416.x
  16. ^ Cincotta, Richard, and John Doces. 2011. “The Age-structural Maturity Thesis: The Youth Bulge’s Influence on the Advent and Stability of Liberal Democracy?” In Political Demography: identity, conflict and institutions ed. J. A. Goldstone, E. Kaufmann and M. Toft. Boulder, CO: Paradigm Press
  17. ^ “The Effects of ‘Youth Bulge’ on Civil Conflicts”Council on Foreign Relations. Retrieved 2017-04-05.
  18. Jump up to:a b Hassan, Islam; Dyer, Paul (2017). “The State of Middle Eastern Youth” (PDF)The Muslim World107 (1): 3–12.
  19. ^ “Middle East Youth Initiative”Middle East Youth Initiative. Retrieved 21 April 2018.
  20. Jump up to:a b “Middle East Youth Initiative”Middle East Youth Initiative. Retrieved 21 April 2018.
  21. ^ “Middle East Youth Initiative”Middle East Youth Initiative. Retrieved 21 April 2018.
  22. ^ “Youth – An Undervalued Asset: Towards a New Agenda in the Middle East and North Africa, Progress, Challenges and Way Forward,” Middle East and North Africa Region Human Development Department (MNSHD), The World Bank, 2007″(PDF). Retrieved 27 October 2011.
  23. ^ “Middle East Youth Initiative: About: Why Shabab?”. Retrieved 27 October 2011.

Additional References

Further reading

External links

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Story 1: President Trump: “Iran made a very big mistake” — Option A: Strong Message and Done, Option B: One Missile Attack and Done, Option C: Total War With Iran and World Recession Due To Spike in Oil and Gas Prices — Videos —

Tucker: Washington is war-hungry

Pentagon releases footage of US drone being shot down by Iran

LIVE: President Trump first comments after Iran shoots down US Drone | June 20th 2019

US is bringing the Iranian economy to its knees: Nile Gardiner

Oil prices rise after Iran shoots down US drone

40% Chance of 2020 U.S.-Iran Military Conflict: Eurasia CEO

Iran shoots down US drone as tensions escalate

Video shows Iran shooting down US drone

Iran says it shot down US drone ‘violating Iranian air space’ amid growing tensions

Iran Shot Down U.S. Drone to Disrupt Trade in Persian Gulf, Senior U.S. Military Official Says

President Trump makes first comments after Iran shoots down U.S. Drone | ABC News Special Report

Iran says it’s ‘ready for war’

Iran shoots down US military spy drone | DW News

Iran says it will breach nuclear deal ‘in days’ as its uranium stockpile limit nears

Is The U.S. Going To War With Iran? | AJ+

Iran’s foreign minister accuses US, Mideast of provoking conflict

Iran’s Zarif thrashes Trump, “US driven by pathological obsession” (Munich Security Conference 2019)

Can air strikes take out Iran’s nuclear facilities?

Did Trump Just Blink or Bluff in Standoff With Iran?

Anthony Halpin

Bloomberg

Was it all a bluff? After news leaked that President Donald Trump approved and then called off U.S. airstrikes on Iran last night, it emerged he’d warned Tehran about an imminent attack while insisting he was against a war.

Today, as airlines began re-routing flights away from the Strait of Hormuz, Iran’s Foreign Ministry called in the Swiss ambassador, who also represents U.S. interests, for talks.

Was the outreach why Trump abandoned the strikes? Or was this the latest example of the whipsaw approach from a president who’s twice attacked Syria but also backed away from using force after lashing out at Iran and North Korea?

The leak of Trump’s about-face also speaks volumes about the battle for influence in the White House. Hardliners clearly thought they’d convinced him to back a tough response to Iran’s downing of a U.S. Navy drone. Yet Trump was elected on a pledge to pull out of Middle East wars.

The president, who governs with the cliffhanger style of his Apprentice TV show, thrives on keeping supporters hooked on dramatic twists.

But as his 2020 re-election campaign gains steam, the stakes now include the prospect of armed conflict and instability in a region that supplies a third of the world’s oil.

Global Headlines

Biden’s burden | Democratic front-runner Joe Biden is encountering the same pitfalls as other seasoned politicians who’ve found their experience and record can be a liability. The former Delaware senator’s struggles to defend his remarks this week about finding common ground with two segregationists is an early sign of the trouble he could have explaining a complicated voting record and his nostalgia for a Washington collegiality that has steadily diminished since he was first elected in 1972.

Border control | Trump praised Mexico’s efforts to crack down on migrants crossing the border into the U.S. after the two countries entered an agreement aimed at stemming the flow of people entering Mexico from Central America. Mexico will take greater control of its southern border and ask foreigners to register their arrival.

Osaka drama | Before Trump, Group of 20 summits were dull if worthy affairs. This year’s gathering in Osaka, Japan next week promises to be anything but, as the U.S. president holds talks with China’s Xi Jinping after threatening to escalate their trade conflict. The best-case scenario would be a pause in new U.S. tariffs and a resumption of negotiations that broke down in May. The worst-case would be a new Cold War between the two largest economies.

Favorites flushed | European Union leaders cast aside the candidates who’ve dominated the race to head the next EU Commission and will start from scratch less than two weeks before a self-imposed deadline. The decision at a summit in Brussels extends gridlock that has left investors in the dark over a series of critical posts including the next president of the European Central Bank.

Bad air | As climate change tops political agendas from Washington to New Delhi, there’s no solution in sight for the bad air choking Europe’s poorest countries. While the EU has focused mostly on stability in the volatile Balkans, health problems and lost productivity from air pollution cost the continent more than 10 billion euros a year. Obsolete coal plants and cars spew smog and hundreds of thousands of people burn tires, wood and trash to stay warm.

What to Watch

Boris Johnson and Jeremy Hunt will go head-to-head in the contest to become the U.K.’s next prime minister as they seek votes from the Conservative Party’s 160,000 grassroots members over the next month. Ukraine’s Constitutional Court threw out a challenge to a decree by President Volodymyr Zelenskiy ordering early parliamentary elections. The ruling confirmed a vote will take place next month and a new government should be in place by the fall. Turkey reruns the election for mayor of Istanbul on Sunday, pitting former prime minister and ruling AK Party candidate Binali Yildirim against opposition challenger Ekrem Imamoglu, who was stripped of his narrow victory in the March 31 ballot.

And finally…The U.K. is poised to generate more energy from low-carbon sources than from fossil fuels for the first time since the Industrial Revolution. Wind, solar, hydro and nuclear plants provided 48% of the nation’s power in the first five months of this year. The U.K. has gone without burning coal, the dirtiest fossil fuel, for the equivalent of 80 days so far in 2019, including one stretch of 18 days in a row.

–With assistance from Kathleen Hunter and Daniel Ten Kate.

https://news.yahoo.com/did-trump-just-blink-bluff-100815556.html

Trump says Iran made ‘big mistake’ by taking down US drone

today

President Donald Trump speaks during a meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau in the Oval Office of the White House, Thursday, June 20, 2019, in Washington. Trump declared Thursday that “Iran made a very big mistake” in shooting down a U.S. drone but suggested it was an accident rather than a strategic error. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

WASHINGTON (AP) — President Donald Trump declared Thursday that “Iran made a very big mistake” by shooting down a U.S. surveillance drone over the Strait of Hormuz but suggested it was a foolish error rather than an intentional escalation of the tensions that have led to rising fears of open military conflict.

Asked about a U.S. response, the president said pointedly, “You’ll soon find out.”

The downing of the huge, unmanned aircraft , which Iran portrayed as a deliberate defense of its territory rather than a mistake, was a stark reminder of the risk of military conflict between U.S. and Iranian forces as the Trump administration combines a “maximum pressure” campaign of economic sanctions against Iran with a buildup of American forces in the region.

The drone — which has a wingspan wider than a Boeing 737 — entered Iranian airspace “despite repeated radio warnings” and was shot down by Iran, acting under the U.N. Charter which allows self-defense action “if an armed attack occurs,” Iran’s U.N. Ambassador Majid Takht Ravanchi said in a letter to the U.N. secretary-general.

Donald Trump is playing down Iran's downing of an American drone, saying that it might have been a mistake executed by someone just being "loose and stupid." He said it was a "new wrinkle" in escalating tensions between the U.S. and Iran. (June 20)

Trump, who has said he wants to avoid war and negotiate with Iran over its nuclear ambitions, appeared to play down the significance of the shootdown.

He cast it as “a new wrinkle … a new fly in the ointment.” Yet he also said that “this country will not stand for it, that I can tell you.”

Shortly before Trump spoke, Air Force Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, commander of U.S. Central Command air forces in the region, took a more pointed view of the shootdown in an area where Trump has blamed Iran for attacking shipping vessels.

“This attack is an attempt to disrupt our ability to monitor the area following recent threats to international shipping and free flow of commerce,” he said.

The Trump administration has been putting increasing economic pressure on Iran for more than a year. It reinstated punishing sanctions following Trump’s decision to pull the U.S. out of an international agreement intended to limit Iran’s nuclear program in exchange for relief from earlier sanctions.

The other world powers who remain signed on to the nuclear deal have set a meeting to discuss the U.S. withdrawal and Iran’s announced plans to increase its uranium stockpile for June 28, a date far enough in the future to perhaps allow tensions to cool.

Citing Iranian threats, the U.S. recently sent an aircraft carrier to the Persian Gulf region and deployed additional troops alongside the tens of thousands already there. All this has raised fears that a miscalculation or further rise in tensions could push the U.S. and Iran into an open conflict 40 years after Tehran’s Islamic Revolution.

“We do not have any intention for war with any country, but we are fully ready for war,” Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami said in a televised address.

The paramilitary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said it shot down the drone at 4:05 a.m. Thursday when it entered Iranian airspace near the Kouhmobarak district in southern Iran’s Hormozgan province. Kouhmobarak is about 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) southeast of Tehran.

The first U.S. reaction was Trump’s Thursday morning tweet of six forceful words: “Iran made a very big mistake.”

But later, while meeting with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, Trump said, “I would imagine it was a general or somebody that made a mistake in shooting that drone down.

He said the American drone was unarmed and unmanned and “clearly over international waters.” It would have “made a big, big difference” if someone had been inside, he said.

“I find it hard to believe it was intentional, if you want to know the truth,” Trump said. “I think that it could have been somebody who was loose and stupid that did it.”

Taking issue with the U.S. version of where the attack occurred, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted that his country had retrieved sections of the military drone “in OUR territorial waters where it was shot down.” He said, “We don’t seek war but will zealously defend our skies, land & waters.”

U.S. Gen. Guastella disputed that contention, telling reporters that the aircraft was 34 kilometers (21 miles) from the nearest Iranian territory and flying at high altitude when struck by a surface-to-air missile. The U.S. military has not commented on the mission of the remotely piloted aircraft that can fly higher than 10 miles in altitude and stay in the air for over 24 hours at a time.

One U.S. official said there was a second American aircraft in the area that was able to get video and imagery of the drone when it was shot down.

Congressional leaders came to the White House for an hour-long briefing in the Situation Room late Thursday with top national security officials including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo, CIA Director Gina Haspel, Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford acting Defense Secretary Patrick Shanahan and Army Secretary Mark Esper, whom Trump has said he’ll nominate as Pentagon chief.

The Senate’s top Democrat called the downing of the American drone “deeply concerning” and accused the administration of not having an Iran strategy and keeping Congress and the rest of the nation in the dark.

“The president needs to explain to the American people why he’s driving us toward another endless conflict in the Middle East,” said Sen. Chuck Schumer of New York.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said she didn’t think Trump wanted war with Iran and the American people have “no appetite” for it either. She said the U.S. needs to be “strong and strategic” about protecting its interests but “cannot be reckless.”

Talking tougher, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina called Iran a “murderous regime” and said, “If they’re itching for a fight they’re going to get one.”

“We’re a lot closer today than we were yesterday, and only God knows what tomorrow brings,” said Graham, a Trump ally who talked with the president by telephone.

The senator also focused on the issue of Iran’s nuclear ambitions, saying its leaders have refused to negotiate after Trump withdrew the U.S. from the international agreement to limit Iranian development of nuclear weapons.

Graham said it’s imperative that the U.S. clearly tell the Iranians that any attempt to increase uranium enrichment will be seen as a “hostile act against the United States and our allies in Israel and will not go unanswered.”

Another factor: This all comes as Trump is launching his re-election campaign. He ran for president promising to bring American troops home from the Middle East and Afghanistan and has repeatedly said he wants to keep America out of “endless wars.”

Ari Fleischer, who was press secretary for President George W. Bush, cautioned against thinking about politics when weighing any response to Iran.

“I suspect a successful limited counter-strike, such as taking out the missile battery that fired at the drone or the sinking of an unmanned Iranian vessel, would be seen as a well-calibrated show of resolve and discipline,” Fleischer said in an interview. He added that “if we do nothing, Iran may strike again thinking it has impunity.”

https://apnews.com/84ad15edb7324472bb867852059a0a7a

Iran shoots down US surveillance drone, heightening tensions

29 minutes ago

In this Oct. 24, 2018, photo released by the U.S. Air Force, members of the 7th Reconnaissance Squadron prepare to launch an RQ-4 Global Hawk at Naval Air Station Sigonella, Italy. Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shot down a U.S. RQ-4 Global Hawk on Thursday, June 20, 2019, amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington over its collapsing nuclear deal with world powers, American and Iranian officials said, though they disputed the circumstances of the incident. (Staff Sgt. Ramon A. Adelan/U.S. Air Force via AP)

TEHRAN, Iran (AP) — Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shot down a U.S. surveillance drone Thursday in the Strait of Hormuz, marking the first time the Islamic Republic directly attacked the American military amid tensions over Tehran’s unraveling nuclear deal with world powers.

The two countries disputed the circumstances leading up to an Iranian surface-to-air missile bringing down the U.S. Navy RQ-4A Global Hawk, an unmanned aircraft with a wingspan larger than a Boeing 737 jetliner and costing over $100 million.

Iran said the drone “violated” its territorial airspace, while the U.S. called the missile fire “an unprovoked attack” in international airspace over the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf and President Donald Trump tweeted that “Iran made a very big mistake!”

Trump later appeared to play down the incident, telling reporters in the Oval Office that he had a feeling that “a general or somebody” being “loose and stupid” made a mistake in shooting down the drone.

AP Graphic

The incident immediately heightened the crisis already gripping the wider region, which is rooted in Trump withdrawing the U.S. a year ago from Iran’s 2015 nuclear deal and imposing crippling new sanctions on Tehran. Recently, Iran quadrupled its production of low-enriched uranium to be on pace to break one of the deal’s terms by next week while threatening to raise enrichment closer to weapons-grade levels on July 7 if Europe doesn’t offer it a new deal.

Citing unspecified Iranian threats, the U.S. has sent an aircraft carrier to the Middle East and deployed additional troops alongside the tens of thousands already there. All this has raised fears that a miscalculation or further rise in tensions could push the U.S. and Iran into an open conflict 40 years after Tehran’s Islamic Revolution.

“We do not have any intention for war with any country, but we are fully ready for war,” Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami said in a televised address.

The paramilitary Guard, which answers only to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said it shot down the drone at 4:05 a.m. Thursday when it entered Iranian airspace near the Kouhmobarak district in southern Iran’s Hormozgan province. Kouhmobarak is about 1,200 kilometers (750 miles) southeast of Tehran.

Iran’s Revolutionary Guard commander Gen. Hossein Salami. (Sepahnews via AP)

The drone took off from the southern Persian Gulf and collected data from Iranian territory, including the southern port of Chahbahar near Iran’s border with Pakistan, the Guard said in comments that appeared aimed at showing it could track the aircraft.

The U.S. military has not commented on the mission of the remotely piloted aircraft that can fly higher than 10 miles in altitude and stay in the air for over 24 hours at a time.

Iran used its air defense system known as Third of Khordad to shoot down the drone — a truck-based missile system that can fire up to 18 miles (30 kilometers) into the sky, the semi-official Fars news agency reported.

Iranian state TV later broadcast video it described as the moment the Guard launched the surface-to-air missile that struck the U.S. drone. Chants of “God is great!” could be heard as a fireball appeared in the darkened sky.

Typically, militaries worldwide call out to errant aircraft entering their airspace before firing. It’s unclear whether Iran gave any warning before opening fire. The U.S. military says Iran fired on and missed another drone last week near the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf through which 20% of all global oil moves.

The U.S. has been worried about international shipping through the strategic waterway since tankers were damaged in May and June in what Washington has blamed on limpet mines from Iran, although Tehran denied involvement.. On Wednesday in the United Arab Emirates, the U.S. Navy showed fragments of mines that it said bore “a striking resemblance” to those seen in Iran

The RQ-4 Global Hawk was at least 34 kilometers from Iranian territory when it was shot down by an Iranian surface-to-air missile, said Air Force Lt. Gen. Joseph Guastella, commander of the U.S. Central Command. He said it was an attempt to disrupt U.S. efforts to monitor the Persian Gulf region.

But Salami, speaking to a crowd in the western city of Sanandaj, described the American drone as “violating our national security border.”

“Borders are our red line,” the Revolutionary Guard general said. “Any enemy that violates the borders will be annihilated.”

Iran’s Foreign Ministry also said the drone entered Iranian airspace, and Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif tweeted it would take its case to the U.N. He later tweeted that Iran retrieved parts of the drone in its territorial waters.

Russian President Vladimir Putin urged caution, warning any war between Iran and the U.S. would be a “catastrophe for the region as a minimum.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urged support for U.S. efforts to halt what he called escalating Iranian provocations.

“In the last 24 hours, Iran has intensified its aggression against the United States and against all of us,” he said.

U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres expressed concern and urged all parties to “avoid any action that could inflame the situation,” said U.N. spokesman Stephane Dujarric.

America stations some RQ-4 Global Hawks at the Al-Dhafra Air Base in the UAE, near the capital of Abu Dhabi. Associated Press journalists saw the drones on the base’s tarmac during a March 2016 visit by then-Vice President Joe Biden. The U.S. military occasionally publishes images from there of the drones, which have a distinctive hump-shaped front and an engine atop the fuselage.

Iran has claimed to have shot down U.S. drones before. In the most famous incident, in December 2011, Iran seized an RQ-170 Sentinel flown by the CIA to monitor Iranian nuclear sites after it entered Iranian airspace from neighboring Afghanistan. Iran later reverse-engineered the drone to create their own variants.

Elsewhere in the region Thursday, Saudi Arabia said Yemen’s Iranian-backed Houthi rebels fired a rocket at a desalination plant in al-Shuqaiq, a city in the kingdom’s Jizan province. The state-run Saudi Press Agency quoted military spokesman Col. Turki al-Maliki as saying it caused no damage or casualties.

The Yemeni rebel Al-Masirah satellite news channel earlier said the Houthis targeted a power plant in Jizan, near the kingdom’s border with Yemen, with a cruise missile.

A coalition led by Saudi Arabia, a key U.S. ally, has been battling the Houthis since March 2015 in Yemen, the Arab world’s poorest nation now pushed to the brink of famine by the conflict. In recent weeks, the Houthis have launched a new campaign sending missiles and bomb-laden drones into Saudi Arabia.

https://apnews.com/e4316eb989d5499c9828350de8524963

 

 

Story 2: Federal Reserve Board Votes To Keep Federal Funds Target Range of 2.25% to 2.5% Waiting For July 2019 Jobs Report and Second Quarter Real GDP Growth Rate Number — Videos

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Trump slams Fed over interest rate policy

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks to media following interest rate decision – 06/19/2019

Sen. Tillis Says Fed Made Mistake in December, Defers to Trump on Powell Demotion

The Federal Reserve didn’t cut rates, but does the rally need the Fed?

Steve Keen Says U.S. Heading for 2020 Recession

Cramer: Stocks would probably rise if Trump removed Powell as Fed chair

Fed Chair Jerome Powell speaks on monetary policy – 06/04/2019

Fed wary of economic clouds, but leaves interest rates unchanged for now

Goldman Sees Fed ‘Not Likely to Cut’ Rates in July, Kostin Says

The Federal Fund Rate in 4 Minutes

Macro 4.1- Money Market and FED Tools (Monetary Policy)

Discount Rate and Federal Funds Rate

What is the Yield Curve, and Why is it Flattening?

Why Investors Are Obsessed With the Inverted Yield Curve

Here’s what experts are saying about the inverted yield curve

Trump expected Powell to be a ‘cheap-money’ Fed chairman

S&P 500 closes at new record as Wall Street bets Fed will lower rates, Dow surges nearly 250 points

VIDEO02:12
The S&P 500 just closed at a record high — Here’s what four experts say to watch

Stocks rallied on Thursday, led by strong gains in tech and energy shares, as Wall Street cheered the possibility that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates next month.

The S&P 500 surged 1% to 2,954.18, a record close. The broad index also hit an intraday record of 2,958.06. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 249.17 points higher at 26,753.17. The Nasdaq Composite gained 0.8% to end the day at 8,051.34.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury fell below 2% for the first time since November 2016. Investors cheered the decline in the benchmark for mortgage rates and corporate bonds.

The energy sector rose more than 2% to lead all 11 S&P 500 sectors higher as oil prices jumped. Tech gained 1.4% after shares of Oracle surged more than 8% on stronger-than-forecast earnings. General Electric’s 2.8% rise pushed the industrials sector up more than 1.6% on the day.

“Markets are based on numbers and perception. If the perception is rates are getting cut, that’s going to drive markets higher,” said Kathy Entwistle, senior vice president of wealth management at UBS. “UBS’ stance up until yesterday was we wouldn’t see any rate cuts this year. Now we see a much larger chance of a 50-basis-point cut.”

The Fed said Wednesday it stands ready to battle growing global and domestic economic risks as they took stock of intensifying trade tensions and growing concerns about inflation. Most Fed policymakers slashed their rate outlook for the rest of the calendar year by approximately half a percentage point in the previous session, while Chairman Jerome Powell said others agree the case for lower rates is building.

Policymakers also dropped “patient” from the Fed’s statement and acknowledged that inflation is “running below” its 2% objective.

Market participants viewed the overall tone from the U.S. central bank as more dovish than expected. Traders are now pricing in a 100% chance of a rate cutnext month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

With Thursday’s gains, the market has now erased the steep losses recorded by the major indexes in May, which were sparked by trade fears. The S&P 500 and Dow both fell more than 6% while the Nasdaq lost 7.9% last month. The three indexes were up more than 7% for June.

China and the U.S. hiked tariffs on billions of dollars worth of their goods in May. Stocks turned around this month as traders bet the rising trade tensions, coupled with weaker economic data, would lead the Fed to ease its monetary policy stance.

The Fed’s message on Wednesday sent the 10-year Treasury yield to as low as 1.974% before ending the day around 2.02%. The yield stood at 2.8% in January.

“The FOMC reinforced the market’s conviction,” said Steve Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard, in a note. “Barring a dramatic turnaround in the data, the next move is a cut – perhaps even a 50bp reduction.”

The dollar also took a hit against other major currencies. The dollar index dropped 0.5% to 96.65, led by a 0.6% slide in the euro. The yen and Canadian dollar also rose against the U.S. currency.

Energy shares got a boost from higher oil prices. The Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLE) climbed 2.2% as shares of Exxon Mobil gained 1.7%. Oil prices surged 5.4% after a U.S. official said a drone was shot down over Iranian airspace.

Meanwhile, Slack shares surged more than 40% in their first day of trading. The stock closed above $38 after setting a reference price of $26.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/20/stock-market-dow-futures-higher-after-fed-raises-rate-cut-hopes.html

Federal Open Market Committee

About the FOMC

Recent FOMC press conference

June 19, 2019

FOMC Transcripts and other historical materials

The term “monetary policy” refers to the actions undertaken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Federal Reserve responsibility for setting monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy–open market operationsthe discount rate, and reserve requirements. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.

Structure of the FOMC

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members–the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee’s assessment of the economy and policy options.

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

For more detail on the FOMC and monetary policy, see section 2 of the brochure on the structure of the Federal Reserve Systemand chapter 2 of Purposes & Functions of the Federal Reserve System. FOMC Rules and Authorizations are also available online.

2019 Committee Members

Alternate Members

Federal Reserve Bank Rotation on the FOMC

Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the year.

2020 2021 2022
Members New York
Cleveland
Philadelphia
Dallas
Minneapolis
New York
Chicago
Richmond
Atlanta
San Francisco
New York
Cleveland
Boston
St. Louis
Kansas City
Alternate
Members
New York
Chicago
Richmond
Atlanta
San Francisco
New York
Cleveland
Boston
St. Louis
Kansas City
New York
Chicago
Philadelphia
Dallas
Minneapolis

 †For the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the First Vice President is the alternate for the President. Return to table

For additional information, please use the FOMC FOIA request form.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm

 

Fed holds rates steady, but opens the door for a rate cut in the future

The action sets up a possible confrontation between Fed Chairman Jerome Powell and President Donald Trump, who has been pressuring the Fed to cut rates. Just Tuesday, Trump said “let’s see what he does” at the Fed meeting when asked if he still wants to demote Powell.

At the post-statement news conference, Powell was asked about his future as chairman. “I think the law is clear that I have a four year term, and I fully intend to serve it,” he said.

The strong majority for this month’s decision contrasted with a sharp difference of opinion on what happens next.

The committee provided an important nod to those worried about slower growth: It dropped the word “patient” in  describing its approach to policy. The characterization was a key part of the Fed “pivot” earlier this year that signaled to the market a more dovish approach to rates.

“The Fed didn’t surprise investors with the decision to maintain rates, but the split vote tells us that a cut is on the way and it’s increasingly likely that will be in July, as bond markets have been hoping,” said Neil Birrell, chief investment officer at Premier Asset Management.

“This was probably the compromise decision — it wasn’t shocking and should offer some reassurance,” Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, said in a note. “The FOMC will still want to closely monitor the stress fractures from the bond market, middling housing and auto sales numbers, and an increasingly uncertain global economic landscape in the coming months.”

The statement also changed wording to concede that inflation is “running below” the Fed’s 2% objective. In their forecast for headline inflation this year, officials slashed the estimate to 1.5% from March’s 1.8%. Core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, is likely now to be 1.8% from March’s 2%, according to the quarterly summary of economic projections also released Wednesday.

‘In light of these uncertainties’

The committee changed language from its May statement to indicate that economic activity is “rising at a moderate rate,” a downgrade from “solid.”

In their baseline scenario, FOMC members said they still expect “sustained expansion of economic activity” and a move toward 2% inflation, but realize that “uncertainties about this outlook have increased.”

“In light of these uncertainties and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will closely monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective,” the statement said. The “act as appropriate to sustain the expansion” language mirrors a statement from Powell in early June.

Very reasonable to think Fed will cut rates twice this year: Strategist

The committee characterized the labor market as “strong” with “solid” jobs growth, despite May’s disappointing nonfarm payrolls growth of 75,000. The statement further said that household spending “appears to have picked up from earlier in the year.”

The changes came amid what appeared to be little consensus among the committee about where rates go next.

Divided Fed

According to the “dot plot” of individual members’ expectations, eight members favor one cut this year while the same number voted in favor of the status quo and one still wants a rate hike. Bullard and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari have led the public discussion about the potential for rate cuts, while other members have been less firm.

Into 2020, the Fed consensus was a bit stronger, with nine members wanting a cut to a funds rate around 2.1%. The direction changes, though, in 2021, with indications of an increase of about a quarter-point, culminating in an expected long-run value of 2.5%. The funds rate most recently was trading at 2.37%.

Traders in the thin and volatile funds market had been pricing in a 26% chance of a cut at this week’s meeting. Later in the year, though, the probability for a July easing rose to 82.5% and the chances of a second cut in December were most recently at 60.4%. The market expects a third cut to come around March of 2020.

While the statement language offered some significant changes, estimates in the summary of economic projections, other than inflation, moved little from March. GDP growth is still expected to be 2.1% for the year – it was 3.1% in the first quarter, and the Atlanta Fed is forecasting a 2% gain in the second quarter. The unemployment rate is now expected to hold at a 50-year low of 3.6%, against the March forecast of 3.7%.

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/06/19/fed-decision-fed-leaves-rates-unchanged.html

10-year Treasury yield drops below 2% for first time since November 2016

Federal funds rate

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Federal Funds Rate compared to U.S. Treasury interest rates

2 to 10 year treasury yield spread

Inflation (blue) compared to federal funds rate (red)

Quarterly gross domestic product compared to Federal Funds Rate.

Federal Funds Rate and Treasury interest rates from 2002-2019

In the United States, the federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions (banks and credit unions) lend reserve balances to other depository institutions overnight, on an uncollateralized basis. Reserve balances are amounts held at the Federal Reserve to maintain depository institutions’ reserve requirements. Institutions with surplus balances in their accounts lend those balances to institutions in need of larger balances. The federal funds rate is an important benchmark in financial markets.[1][2]

The interest rate that the borrowing bank pays to the lending bank to borrow the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all such transactions is the federal funds effective rate.

The federal funds target rate is determined by a meeting of the members of the Federal Open Market Committee which normally occurs eight times a year about seven weeks apart. The committee may also hold additional meetings and implement target rate changes outside of its normal schedule.

The Federal Reserve uses open market operations to make the federal funds effective rate follow the federal funds target rate. The target rate is chosen in part to influence the money supply in the U.S. economy[3]

Contents

Mechanism

Financial institutions are obligated by law to maintain certain levels of reserves, either as reserves with the Fed or as vault cash. The level of these reserves is determined by the outstanding assets and liabilities of each depository institution, as well as by the Fed itself, but is typically 10%[4] of the total value of the bank’s demand accounts (depending on bank size). In the range of $9.3 million to $43.9 million, for transaction deposits (checking accountsNOWs, and other deposits that can be used to make payments) the reserve requirement in 2007–2008 was 3 percent of the end-of-the-day daily average amount held over a two-week period. Transaction deposits over $43.9 million held at the same depository institution carried a 10 percent reserve requirement.

For example, assume a particular U.S. depository institution, in the normal course of business, issues a loan. This dispenses money and decreases the ratio of bank reserves to money loaned. If its reserve ratio drops below the legally required minimum, it must add to its reserves to remain compliant with Federal Reserve regulations. The bank can borrow the requisite funds from another bank that has a surplus in its account with the Fed. The interest rate that the borrowing bank pays to the lending bank to borrow the funds is negotiated between the two banks, and the weighted average of this rate across all such transactions is the federal funds effective rate.

The federal funds target rate is set by the governors of the Federal Reserve, which they enforce by open market operations and adjustments in the interest rate on reserves.[5] The target rate is almost always what is meant by the media referring to the Federal Reserve “changing interest rates.” The actual federal funds rate generally lies within a range of that target rate, as the Federal Reserve cannot set an exact value through open market operations.

Another way banks can borrow funds to keep up their required reserves is by taking a loan from the Federal Reserve itself at the discount window. These loans are subject to audit by the Fed, and the discount rate is usually higher than the federal funds rate. Confusion between these two kinds of loans often leads to confusion between the federal funds rate and the discount rate. Another difference is that while the Fed cannot set an exact federal funds rate, it does set the specific discount rate.

The federal funds rate target is decided by the governors at Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. The FOMC members will either increase, decrease, or leave the rate unchanged depending on the meeting’s agenda and the economic conditions of the U.S. It is possible to infer the market expectations of the FOMC decisions at future meetings from the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) Fed Funds futures contracts, and these probabilities are widely reported in the financial media.

Applications

Interbank borrowing is essentially a way for banks to quickly raise money. For example, a bank may want to finance a major industrial effort but may not have the time to wait for deposits or interest (on loan payments) to come in. In such cases the bank will quickly raise this amount from other banks at an interest rate equal to or higher than the Federal funds rate.

Raising the federal funds rate will dissuade banks from taking out such inter-bank loans, which in turn will make cash that much harder to procure. Conversely, dropping the interest rates will encourage banks to borrow money and therefore invest more freely.[6] This interest rate is used as a regulatory tool to control how freely the U.S. economy operates.

By setting a higher discount rate the Federal Bank discourages banks from requisitioning funds from the Federal Bank, yet positions itself as a lender of last resort.

Comparison with LIBOR

Though the