The Pronk Pops Show 1306, August 14, 2019, Story 1: President Trump Delays Tariffs on Chinese Goods to After Christmas — Videos — Story 2: Normal Flight Operations Resume Again in Hong Kong — Videos — Story 3: Progressives Try To Panic American People Over Inverted Yield Curve Leading To Recession — U.S. Economy is Growing — Videos — Story 4: President Trump Energy Speech at Shell Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex in Monaca, Pennsylvania 

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Story 1: President Trump Delays Tariffs on Chinese Goods to After Christmas — Americans Would Have Been Paying The Tariff or Tax — Videos —

Trump Blinked With China Tariff Delay, Exante Data’s Setser Says

Trump says China tariffs delayed for ‘Christmas season’

China Is Changing Strategy in Trade War, Says LSE’s Jin

 

Trump CAVES on China tariffs and puts off levies on laptops, cell phones and toys until after Christmas shopping season following ‘very good call’ with Beijing – in move set to boost faltering stock market

  • The Trump administration announced Tuesday morning that is delaying tariffs on Chinese-manufactured goods like laptops and cell phones until Dec. 15
  • Trump’s trade office says that certain products ‘will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent’ due to health, safety or national security concerns 
  • Some of e products it listed were cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, computer monitors, footwear and clothingth
  • USTR said it will post a list of items that are being excluded on its website
  • It announced the postponement shortly after the the stock market opened, and the Dow jumped nearly 500 points within minutes of the news
  • Donald Trump has not commented directly but hinted n a tweet that the action was intended to get China to move forward with large agricultural orders

The Trump administration announced Tuesday morning that is delaying tariffs on Chinese-manufactured goods like laptops and cell phones until Dec. 15, when price hikes from the penalties won’t drive up the price of popular Christmas presents.

Trump’s trade office says that certain products ‘will not face additional tariffs of 10 percent’ due to health, safety or national security concerns.

However, the categories of goods that are being protected suggest that Trump was concerned about the consumer pricing index and the billions of dollars in value of this month’s stock losses.

The U.S. trade office announced the postponement shortly after the the stock market opened in the United States, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average jump nearly 500 points within minutes.

That excitement tempered off as the day wore on. The Dow leveled out at a 400-point rise that was close to 1,000 points off from where it was a month ago when it started to drop.

Speaking to reporters on the tarmac in New Jersey, before a day trip to Pennsylvania from his vacation, the president defended his tough-on-China stance, saying that other presidents should have tightened the screws on Beijing, too.

He said that he backed off on tariffs because he had a ‘very good call with China.

The Trump administration announced Tuesday morning that is delaying tariffs on Chinese-manufactured goods like laptops and cell phones until Dec. 15. Donald Trump is seen here at the White House the previous Friday

The Trump administration announced Tuesday morning that is delaying tariffs on Chinese-manufactured goods like laptops and cell phones until Dec. 15. Donald Trump is seen here at the White House the previous Friday

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped nearly 500 points within minutes of the statement

The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped nearly 500 points within minutes of the statement

Donald Trump said he’d impose a 10 percent penalty on $300 billion in untaxed goods on Sept. 1, if China continued drag out trade talks. 

U.S. negotiators say a deal was nearly finished, when Beijing backed away from major provisions.

A new round of talks was scheduled for September, however Trump drove down skittish markets with claims last week that the meetings could be cancelled.

On Tuesday morning, USTR announced it was loosening the noose on China, specifically on items in the tech and and clothing manufacturing industries.

‘Products in this group include, for example, cell phones, laptop computers, video game consoles, certain toys, computer monitors, and certain items of footwear and clothing,’ according to a United States Trade Representative statement.

USTR said it will post a list of items that are being excluded on its website today.

The president continued to defend his position in a Tuesday morning in tweet that claimed consumers have not paid the price for the 25 percent tariffs on $250 billion of other Chinese items that he’s put in place.

Trump did not mention the policy shift in that tweet or one that he sent a half-hour after the the USTR announcement, however, he hinted that unfilled agricultural orders were part of the calculus.

He said of China’s retracted promises to purchase more American agricultural goods: ‘Maybe this will be different!’ 

Less than an hour prior, the president had been ripping China. He blasted Beijing for financial tinkering the U.S. has blasted as currency manipulation while promising American buyers that tariffs wouldn’t affect everyday product pricing.

‘Through massive devaluation of their currency and pumping vast sums of money into their system, the tens of billions of dollars that the U.S. is receiving is a gift from China. Prices not up, no inflation. Farmers getting more than China would be spending. Fake News won’t report!’ he said.

‘Later, at a manufacturing event in Pennsylvania, the president said in an extended riff on China that it had ‘ripped off our country for years’ and taken advantage of World Trade Organization rules that allow the nation to be classified as a developing economy.

‘And I’m being nice when I say took advantage,’ he argued.

He recounted his threat to leave the WTO, unless it started adjudicating cases in his favor.

‘And it’s only because of attitude,’ he said of a change in behavior. ‘Because we know that they have been screwing us for years.’

He added, ‘And I’d like to use a different word but there’s no word that’s quite as descriptive.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7352783/Trump-postpones-new-tariffs-China-months-stock-shares-lose-billions-value.html

 

Story 2: Normal Flight Operations Resume Again in Hong Kong — Videos

 

Normal operations resume at Hong Kong airport as city braces for more protests

Hong Kong’s Airport Authority said normal flight operations would resume on Thursday after pro-democracy protests forced the cancellation of nearly 1,000 flights this week, while the city braced for more mass protests through the weekend.

China reiterated on Wednesday that Hong Kong’s protest movement was “near terrorism” and more street clashes followed ugly and chaotic scenes at the airport on Tuesday, when protesters set upon two men they suspected of being government sympathisers.

Police and protesters faced off again on the streets of the financial hub overnight, with riot officers quickly firing tear gas as their response to demonstrators toughens .

Ten weeks of increasingly violent confrontations between police and protesters have plunged Hong Kong into its worst crisis since it reverted from British to Chinese rule in 1997.

Heightened security would remain at the city’s international airport and the Hong Kong Airport Authority said late on Wednesday an application for protests to be held in the terminal must be made in advance with a “Letter of No Objection” to be obtained from police.

More protests are planned on Friday and over the weekend in different areas of the Chinese-controlled territory.

Protesters have expressed remorse after a peaceful sit-in turned violent at one of the world’s busiest airports earlier this week.

It was not clear whether the violent clashes might have eroded the broad support the movement has so far attracted in Hong Kong. The protests have also hit the city’s faltering economy.

The United States said it was deeply concerned at news of Chinese police forces gathering near the border, urged Hong Kong’s government to respect freedom of speech, and issued a travel advisory urging caution when visiting the city. (Writing by Farah Master Editing by Paul Tait)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-7358413/Normal-operations-resume-Hong-Kong-airport-city-braces-protests.html

 

Story 3: Progressives Try To Panic American People Over Inverted Yield Curve Leading To Recession — U.S. Economy is Growing — Videos

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Why Investors Are Obsessed With the Inverted Yield Curve

Fed Must Act on Inverted Yield Curve, Credit Suisse’s Golub Says

What Is An Inverted Yield Curve And How Does It Affect The Stock Market? | NBC News Now

 

Yield curve inversion does not mean there will be a recession tomorrow, strategist says

Mohamed El-Erian talks yield curve, recession and global economy

President Trump calls Fed Chair Jerome Powell ‘clueless’ and inverted yield curve ‘crazy’

 

Dow plummets 800 points and 3% in a day amid fears of economic crisis as Treasury yields invert for the first time since the Great Recession

  • Dow Jones plunged more than 800 points on Wednesday on recession fears
  • Yield on the 10-year Treasury note briefly dipped below the two-year yield
  • Known as an ‘inverted yield curve,’ it is a sign investors fear a recession 
  • The past five inverted yield curves have all preceded a recession
  • Trump blasts Fed over rates and calls chairman Jerome Powell ‘clueless’ 

Stocks plunged on Wednesday after the bond market threw up one of its last remaining warning flags on the economy.

The yield on the 10-year Treasury briefly dropped below the two-year Treasury’s yield Wednesday morning, the first time those yields have flipped since 2007. The so-called inversion has correctly predicted many past recessions and is the loudest warning bell yet about a possible recession ahead.

Investors responded by dumping stocks, more than erasing gains from a rally the day before.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 801 points at 25,479, a loss of 3%, in the largest one-day point drop since October 2018,

A one-day view of the yield spread between the 10-year and two-year Treasury bond shows two brief yield curve inversions when the ratio drops below the red line on Wednesday

A one-day view of the yield spread between the 10-year and two-year Treasury bond shows two brief yield curve inversions when the ratio drops below the red line on Wednesday

Based on the latest available data, the S&P 500 lost 85.72 points, or 2.93%, to 2,840.6, and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 242.42 points, or 3.02%, to 7,773.94.

While the market was falling Wednesday, President Donald Trump took to Twitter to again criticize the Federal Reserve for hampering the U.S. economy by raising rates “far too quickly” last year and not reversing its policy aggressively enough – the Fed cut its key rate by a quarter point last month. 

Trump blasted Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell as ‘clueless’. 

He also defended his trade policy, even though investors remain worried that the trade war between the world’s two largest economies may drag on through the 2020 U.S. election and cause more economic damage.

“We still see a substantial risk that the trade dispute will escalate further,” said Mark Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS in a note to clients.

‘The relief rally inspired by the Trump administration delaying tariffs on some Chinese imports was short lived – blink and you missed it,’ said Fiona Cincotta, senior market analyst at City Index.

With bond yields falling, banks took heavy losses Wednesday. Lower bond yields are bad for banks because they force interest rates on mortgages and other loans lower, which results in lower profits for banks. Citigroup sank 5.1% and Bank of America gave up 5%.

Trump is seen at a White House meeting last month. He is relying upon a strong economy to bolster his reelection chances, and the latest economic signal is a worrying one

Trump is seen at a White House meeting last month. He is relying upon a strong economy to bolster his reelection chances, and the latest economic signal is a worrying one

Much of the market’s focus was on the U.S. yield curve, which has historically been one of the more reliable recession indicators.

If all this talk about yield curves sounds familiar, it should. Other parts of the curve have already inverted, beginning late last year. But each time, some market watchers cautioned not to make too much of it.

Academics tend to pay the most attention to the spread between the three-month Treasury and the 10-year Treasury, which inverted in the spring. Traders often pay more attention to the two-year and 10-year spread.

Each of the last five times the two-year and 10-year Treasury yields have inverted, a recession has followed.

The average amount of time is around 22 months, according to Raymond James’ Giddis.

The indicator isn’t perfect, though, and it’s given false signals in the past.

Some market watchers also say the yield curve may be a less reliable indicator this time because technical factors may be distorting longer-term yields, such as negative bond yields abroad and the Federal Reserve’s holdings of $3.8 trillion in Treasurys and other investments on its balance sheet.

What is a yield curve inversion?

The yield, or the effective interest rate paid, on a 10-year Treasury bond is usually higher than the yield on a two-year bond — because investors typically want to see a higher return for a longer-term investment.

However, bond yields move in the opposite direction of bond prices, which are driven by demand. When investors clamor for bonds, driving prices up, yields go down.

The inversion of the 10-year and two-year yield curves is a signal that investors are rushing money from stocks into bonds, depressing yields and flipping the return on long- and short-term bonds in a way that appears to make little economic sense.

Data from Credit Suisse going back to 1978 shows:

  • The last five 2-10 inversions have eventually led to recessions.
  • A recession occurs, on average, 22 months following a 2-10 inversion.
  • The S&P 500 is up, on average, 12% one year after a 2-10 inversion.
  • It’s not until about 18 months after an inversion when the stock market usually turns and posts negative returns.

This chart shows the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury bonds since 1978. The portions below the black line represent yield inversions, and shaded areas are recessions

This chart shows the spread between 10-year and two-year Treasury bonds since 1978. The portions below the black line represent yield inversions, and shaded areas are recessions

Macy’s plunged 11.4%, the sharpest loss in the S&P 500, after it slashed its profit forecast for the year. The retailer’s profit for the latest quarter fell far short of analysts’ forecasts as it was forced to slash prices on unsold merchandise. The grim results from Macy’s sent other retailers sharply lower, too. Nordstrom sank 10% and Kohl’s dropped 11%.

Energy stocks also sank sharply, hurt by another drop in the price of crude oil on worries that a weakening global economy will drag down demand. National Oilwell Varco slumped 7.4% and Schlumberger skidded 6.5%. The price of benchmark U.S. crude slid 3.9% to $54.88 per barrel. Brent crude, the international standard, lost 3.7% to $59.04.

Gold gained $13.70 to $1,515.90 per ounce, close to a six-year high. Investors also bid up shares in mining company Newmont Goldcorp 1.8%.

Overseas, Germany’s DAX dropped 2.3% following the weak German economic data. France’s CAC 40 fell 2.2%, and the FTSE 100 in London lost 1.7%.

In Asia, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1%, the Kospi in South Korea gained 0.7% and the Hang Seng in Hong Kong added 0.1%.

Trader Andrew Silverman works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. The threat of a recession doesn't seem so remote anymore, and stocks sank Wednesday

Trader Andrew Silverman works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange on Tuesday. The threat of a recession doesn’t seem so remote anymore, and stocks sank Wednesday

Markets have largely been in a spin cycle since Trump announced on Aug. 1 that he would impose 10% tariffs on about $300 billion in Chinese imports, which would be on top of 25% tariffs already in place on $250 billion in imports.

On Tuesday, responding to pressure from businesses and growing fears that a trade war is threatening the U.S. economy, the Trump administration is delaying most of the import taxes it planned to impose on Chinese goods and is dropping others altogether.

Investors are still worried that the trade war between the world’s two largest economies may drag on through the 2020 U.S. election and cause more economic damage.

For all its whipsawing up and down, the S&P 500 remains within 5% of its record, which was set in late July.

A five-day view of the Dow shows a sharp drop at the open of trading on Wednesday

A five-day view of the Dow shows a sharp drop at the open of trading on Wednesday

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7356699/Warnings-economic-crisis-Treasury-yields-invert-time-Great-Recession.html

 

Story 4: President Trump Energy Speech at Shell Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex in Monaca, Pennsylvania 

FULL SPEECH: President Trump speech on energy in Pennsylvania

Trump was supposed to give a speech on energy. He went way off script.

Updated 

President Donald Trump on Tuesday headed to a Shell petrochemicals plant being built outside Pittsburgh to give what was billed by the White House as a speech on “America’s Energy Dominance and Manufacturing Revival.”

But the hourlong address was light on energy policy and heavy on stump speech material and off-script riffs, as Trump touched on everything from his love of trucks to his assessment of his potential 2020 rivals. The meandering speech came on a day when the president had already attacked a CNN anchor, endorsed a controversial World Series hero’s potential congressional bid and defended his parroting of a conspiracy theory concerning the apparent suicide of his onetime friend Jeffrey Epstein.

Here are some of Trump’s most off-key comments:

On the supposed benefits of natural gas over renewable energy: “When the wind stops blowing, it doesn’t make any difference does it? Unlike those big windmills that destroy everybody’s property values, kill all the birds. One day the environmentalists are going to tell us what’s going on with that. And then all of a sudden it stops. The wind and the televisions go off. And your wives and husbands say: ‘Darling, I want to watch Donald Trump on television tonight. But the wind stopped blowing and I can’t watch. There’s no electricity in the house, darling.’”

On his construction chops: “I was a good builder. I built good. I love building; in fact, I’m going to take a tour of the site.”

On doing some campaigning: “I’m going to speak to some of your union leaders to say, ‘I hope you’re going to support Trump, OK?’ And if they don’t, vote ‘em the hell out of office because they’re not doing their job — it’s true.”

On his love of trucks: “I love cranes, I love trucks of all types. Even when I was a little boy at 4 years old, my mother would say, ‘You love trucks.’ I do, I always loved trucks, I still do. Nothing changes — sometimes you know you might become president, but nothing changes — I still love trucks. Especially when I look at the largest crane in the world, that’s very cool. You think I’ll get to operate it? We’ll put the media on it and I’ll give them a little ride, right?”

On pundits suggesting he might not leave office willingly: “Can you imagine if I got a fair press? I mean, we’re leading without it; can you imagine if these people treated me fairly? The election would be over. Have they ever called off an election before? Just said, ‘Look just let’s go, go on four more years.’ You want to really drive them crazy? Go to #ThirdTerm, #FourthTerm — you’ll drive them totally crazy.”

On what Trump perceives as a trade imbalance with Japan: “They send us thousands and thousands — millions of cars, we send them wheat. Wheat. That’s not a good deal. And they don’t even want our wheat. They do it because they want us to at least feel that we’re OK, you know, they do it to make us feel good.” This assertion is false.

On the price tag of the presidency: “This thing is costing me a fortune, being president. Somebody said, ‘Oh, he might have rented a room to a man from Saudi Arabia for $500.’ What about the $5 billion that I’ll lose — you know, it’s probably going to cost me, including, upside, downside, lawyers, because every day they sue me for something. These are the most litigious people. It’s probably costing me from $3 to $5 billion for the pleasure of being — and I couldn’t care less, I don’t care. You know if you’re wealthy, it doesn’t matter. I just want to do a great job.”

On his pledge to salvage manufacturing jobs: “You guys, I don’t know what the hell you’re going to do. You don’t want to make widgets, right? You don’t want to make — do you want to learn how to make a computer? A little tiny piece of stuff. … You put it with those big, beautiful hands of yours like … you’re going to take these big hands, going to take this little tiny part. You’re going to go home, ‘Alice this is a tough job.’ Nah, you want to make steel, and you want to dig coal — that’s what you want to do!”

On the number of members of the media at the event, at about 2:45 p.m.: “That’s a lot people back there for, like, an 11 o’clock speech. That’s a lot of people.”

On the Oscars: “Like the Academy Awards during the day, it used to be — you know the Academy Awards is on hard times now, you know that right? Nobody wants to watch it. You know why? Because they started taking us on, everyone got tired of it. It’s amazing. That used to be second after the Super Bowl, and then all of a sudden now it’s just another show because people got tired of people getting up and making fools of themselves and disrespecting the people in this room and the people that won the election in 2016.”

On attacking Sen. Elizabeth Warren and former Vice President Joe Biden, potential 2020 rivals: “I did it very early with Pocahontas, I should have probably waited. She’s staging a comeback on Sleepy Joe. I don’t know who’s going to win, but we’ll have to hit Pocahontas very hard again if she does win. But she’s staging a little bit of a comeback. What a group — Pocahontas and Sleepy Joe.”

On Mexico deploying soldiers to stem the flow of Central American migrants: “I want to thank Mexico, it’s incredible. We have close to 27,000, you think of that. We never had three — I think we had about 2½ soldiers, one was sitting down all the time. We had nobody.”

https://www.politico.com/story/2019/08/13/donald-trump-energy-speech-pittsburgh-1461337

 

Shell Pennsylvania Petrochemicals Complex
Monaca, Pennsylvania

2:06 P.M. EDT

AUDIENCE:  USA!  USA!  USA!

THE PRESIDENT: Well, thank you very much.  And thank you, Gretchen.  It’s great to be back in the incredible Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.  Great place.  And this is my 13th visit to Pennsylvania during my administration, which is more than any other President to this point in the term.

And I really love Pennsylvania.  I went to school in Pennsylvania — Philadelphia.  So, we love this state.  And I love the unions and I love the workers.  And, you know, when I built buildings in New York — (applause) — I built them exclusively with unions.  People don’t understand that.  I was exclusive.

And, in the last really great election, our election of 2016, you know, we did great with the union workers.  Great.  But we didn’t do good with the leadership.  The leadership said, “Well, we’ve always gone Democrat.  Let’s keep going that way.”  That didn’t work out too well for some of them, I want to tell you.  (Applause.)  I’ll tell you.  And as Gretchen said, this would have never happened without me and us.  This would have never happened.  So, I’m with you.  I’m with you.  Remember that.
And remember that Pennsylvania — you know, Pennsylvania has the best numbers they’ve ever had in the history of the state.  And that’s for a very good reason.  And you know what that reason is.

(Audience member waves.)  Hello.  Here I am.  (Applause.)

And I’m truly honored to be here with the amazing energy workers and construction workers.  These are talented people.  The craft workers who make America run and who make America proud.  We’re proud again.  We’re proud again.  (Applause.)

And no one in the world does it better than you.  Nobody.  Nobody does it better.  There’s nobody in the world that does it.  And we’re unleashing that power again like we’ve never seen before, I will say.

And we are doing well and we’re fighting against a lot of countries that have taken advantage of us for many, many years.  But they’re not doing it so much anymore.  And in a little period of time, they won’t be doing it at all anymore.  They have taken advantage of this country.  (Applause.)

Today, we celebrate the revolution in American energy that’s helping make our economy the envy of the world.  This Shell petrochemical plant in Beaver County, Pennsylvania — I did very well here.  We did very well.  How many points did we win by?  Does anybody know?  I’ll tell you.  Isn’t it, I think, 28 points?  That’s a lot.  That’s against a Democrat — (laughter) — or whatever.

It’s one of the single-biggest construction projects in the nation.  And it made it possible and was possible by clean, affordable, all-American natural gas.  Powerful, clean, natural gas.  (Applause.)

And when the wind stops blowing, it doesn’t make any difference, does it?  Unlike those big windmills that destroy everybody’s property values, kill all the birds.  Someday, the environmentalists are going to tell us what’s going on with that.  And then, all of a sudden, it stops; the wind and the televisions go off.  And your wives and husbands say, “Darling, I want to watch Donald Trump on television tonight.”  (Laughter.)  “But the wind stopped blowing and I can’t watch.  There’s no electricity in the house, darling.”  No, we love natural gas and we love a lot of other things, too.

Each of you is taking part in the largest investment in Pennsylvania history.  It’s the largest investment in the history of Pennsylvania, in the history of our country — the money that’s being invested in your state right now.

With your help, we’re not only unleashing American energy, we’re restoring the glory of American manufacturing, and we are reclaiming our noble heritage as a nation of builders again.  (Applause.)  A nation of builders.

I was a good builder.  I built good.  I love building.  In fact, I’m going to take a tour of the site.  They said, “Sir, we were going to do it before the speech, but we’re waiting for it to stop raining.”  I said, “Don’t worry about the rain.  Do we have umbrellas?  Don’t worry about the rain.  Umbrellas work very well, especially when they’re made in America.”  (Laughs.)  (Applause.)  So, I don’t care.  But we’re going to take a tour afterwards.

I’m going to speak to some of your union leaders to say, “I hope you’re going to support Trump.”  Okay?  (Applause.)  And if they don’t, vote them the hell out of office because they’re not doing their job.  It’s true.  It’s true.  (Applause.)  Vote them out of office.

When completed, this facility will transform abundant natural gas — and we have a lot of it — fracked from Pennsylvania wells, which they never would have allowed you to take if I weren’t President.  If my opponent won, this would be a lot of nice, new structures outside.  I guess you would have stopped long ago.  You would have stopped construction before it started too much.

But I was talking to Gretchen.  They would have never gotten the approvals to do what’s needed to fuel these plants.  That wouldn’t have been good.  So, probably, they wouldn’t have started.  But if they would have started, it would have stopped.

But they put it into plastic through a process known as “cracking.”  That raw material will then be shipped all over the country and all over the world to be fashioned into more products stamped with that very beautiful phrase: “Made in the USA.”  Right?  “Made in the USA.”  (Applause.)  Beautiful.

AUDIENCE:  USA!  USA!  USA!

THE PRESIDENT:  That is a beautiful phrase.

Getting this massive job done right has required more than 1,500 pieces of heavy equipment; one of the largest cranes anywhere in the world — I look forward to seeing it.  I love cranes.  I loves trucks of all types.  Even when I was a little boy at four years old, my mother would say, “You love trucks.”  I do.  I always loved trucks.  I still do.  Nothing changes.  Sometimes, you know, you might become President but nothing changes.  I still love trucks, especially when I look at the largest crane in the world.  That’s very cool.  Do you think I’ll get to operate it?  I don’t know.  (Applause.)  We’ll put the media on it, and I’ll give them a little ride, right?   (Applause.)

And you have thousands of tons of concrete, aluminum and steel, and nearly 6,000 of the strongest, toughest, and most talented workers anywhere on Earth.  (Applause.)  True.  I know.  It was the Trump administration that made it possible.  No one else.  Without us, you would never have been able to do this.

I want to thank all of our great union members: the boilermakers, carpenters — (applause) — cement finishers — (applause) — electricians — (applause) — iron workers — (applause) — laborers — (applause) — millwrights — (applause) — operators — (applause) — plumbers — (applause) — painters — (applause) — steamfitters; I know them well.

And a group that I’ve used more than anybody that’s ever run for office times 1,000, because in New York City they would drive those cement trucks up to my building and those trucks were always on time, and sometimes they were lined up for six blocks when I was doing different things.  Even when I was doing the Wollman Rink, the city couldn’t build it.  Took them nine years.  They had no idea what they were doing.

And I had that whole big — about 70,000 feet — it’s like a massive office floor — bigger than an office floor.  We did it all in one day, and the trunks were lined up from Central Park all the way back into Harlem.  And they did it all in one day — that pour.  It was called a contiguous pour.  The city used to build little pieces.  A little piece here.  A little piece there.  A little piece here.  A little there.  (Laughter.)  A few years later: a little piece here.  Then they had pipes underneath and the pipes were made out of copper.

And during the evening, things would happen, like the copper would be stolen because it was very valuable.  (Laughter.)  So they’d have a little piece with copper, and then the rest of the pipe they’d lay.  And they’d get ready to pour, and they’d leave, and everybody would steal the copper.  So they — this took place for — I guess, from seven to nine years.  Nobody actually knows.  Nobody wants to talk about it.  (Laughter.)  But those trucks were operated incredibly well, and I never missed a delivery.  And it’s called the “Teamsters.”  (Applause.)

I also want to thank I also want to thank Bechtel, a real incredible company.  We talk about the great builders of the world: President Jack Futcher.  Where is he?  Where is he?  Jack.  Where is Jack?  (Applause.)  Jack.  What a great job you’ve done, Jack.  Some big ones.  Think of it this way, Jack.  If we don’t win, you won’t be doing anything in this country.  (Laughter.)  And, you know, the world follows us.  You see that.  The world follows us.  And it won’t be so good.  But you and I are friends, and you’re going to have a lot of work to do, I think, Jack.  A lot of work.  Thank you, Jack.  Great job.  (Applause.)  Jack has done an incredible job.  That’s an incredible company.  Incredible — they’re incredible builders.

And the Secretary-Treasurer of North America’s Building Trades Unions, Brent Booker.  Where’s Brent?  Brent.  Thank you.  Great job.  (Applause.)  Young guy.  You’re so young, Brent.  How the hell did you get that job?  (Laughter.)  Man.

We’re honored to be joined by two leaders who truly have the backs of American workers.  They’ve become friends of mine.  They do such an incredible job.  They break up the roadblocks.  We have a lot of roadblocks in this country, where you have — a little clause can stop a project.  A little clause can stop it for years.  And we break up those little clauses.  We break them up fast.  Energy Secretary Rick Perry.  Where’s Rick?  Rick?  (Applause.)  Thank you, Rick.  What a great guy.

I had to compete with him.  You know, he wanted to be President.  He was tough.  He was nasty.  Man.  (Laughter.)  He was nasty.  But then he said, “I want to do something great.”  And you have been incredible.  He ran Texas for like 14 years — (applause) — and he did it well.  And now he’s running a little thing called “Energy.”  And nobody has ever done it better.  Thank you, Rick, very much.  Great job.

And a man who has been incredible in every way.  You know, EPA — Environmental Protection Agency.  You’ve heard a lot of horror stories where nothing can get done, nothing gets passed.  It takes years and years and years to get a simple permit.  It can take 20, 21 years to get a road, before they reject it.  How about this?  They go 20 years — 21 years, in certain cases — for a highway or a road.  Not even a highway.  At the end of the 21st year, they vote to reject it.  How would you like to be — you’re a young person, you’re starting out, and you’re all excited about this project.  And it starts off as being a simple, straight road, and then it ends up being a total catastrophe because of nesting and lots of other things that we can take care of.  And it’s 20 years later, and then they reject it.  You’ve devote half of your working life to a rejection.  It happened to many people.

And we have a man that knows how to break it up but he’s also a great lover of the environment: EPA Administrator Andrew Wheeler.  He’s done an incredible job.  Andrew?  (Applause.)  Great job, Andrew.  Great.  Really great job.

And I also want to recognize some of my great friends that have helped me so much: Congressman John Joyce.  John?  (Applause.)  John.  Where is John?  John.  John, usually you’re in the front row.  I can’t believe this.  I guess you got shut out by the unions.  Look.  (Laughter.)  Thank you, John.  Fantastic job.  John Joyce.  Been a great friend — a great friend of all of us.

Speaker of the Pennsylvania House of Representatives Michael Turzai.  (Applause.)  Michael Turzai.  Thank you.  Michael, great job.  Thank you.  Good to see you, Michael.  Michael Turzai.  Great name in this state, I’ll tell you, for a long time.  How long has it been, Michael?  You’ve been there a long time.  How long?

SPEAKER TURZAI:  (Inaudible.)

THE PRESIDENT:  Okay.  Good luck.  (Laughter.)  It’s not that long.  Thank you, Mike.

And one of my good friends from Beaver County, David Urban.  David.  (Applause.)  David.  Where’s David?  David?  Thank you, David.  Great football player.  Great athlete.  And he was a Trump supporter.  He liked Trump.  And when he liked Trump, nobody was going to get in his way.  Right, David?

AUDIENCE MEMBER:  We love Trump!

THE PRESIDENT:  (Laughs.)  Thank you.  Thank you.
How are we doing in the state, David?  We looking good?

AUDIENCE MEMBER:  Four more years!

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you.  I appreciate it.  (Applause.)  Thank you.

I think we’re looking very good.  I think we’re looking good all over: in Ohio, in North Carolina, in South Carolina, Florida.  We just got numbers in Florida.  We’re looking fantastically good.

Now, you know, sometimes — and they do.  They do.  They say, “Donald Trump…”  Can you imagine if I got a fair press?  I mean, we’re leading without it.  Can you imagine if these people treated me fairly?  (Applause.)  The election would be over.  Have they ever called off an election before?  Just said, “Look, just — let’s go.  Go on.  Four more years.”

Yeah.  And then, you want to really drive them crazy?  Go to “#thirdterm”; “#fourthterm.”  You’ll drive them totally crazy.  (Laughter.)  I mean, you have one guy on television: “I’m telling you, he’s not leaving.  He’s going to win and then he’s not leaving.  So, in 2024, he won’t leave.  I’m telling you…”  This is a serious person.  These people have gone stone-cold crazy.  (Laughter.)

And we’re grateful especially to the Chairman of Royal Dutch Shell.  That’s big stuff, folks.  You know, I’m a business guy.  When I hear “Royal Dutch Shell” — you know, until I became President, that was like a big deal, but now I don’t view it the same.  (Laughter.)  Once you’re President, nothing seems big.  Right?  Chad Holliday.  Where’s Chad?  (Applause.)  Chad understands it.  That’s a big deal, Chad.  But thank you for coming.  That’s a big deal.  You don’t get any bigger.  That’s an incredible company.

Shell’s U.S. President — you just met her and you know her; everybody knows her, and she’s got a lot of other things in store.  And she’s thanked me for what we’ve done here.  But I said, “Forget this.  We got a lot of jobs.  Let’s do a couple of more fast.  Do them fast.  We’ll get you fast approvals.”  And you may get rejected, you know, if it’s not going to be environmentally good, environmentally sound; if something is going to be wrong.  But we’re not going to take 20 years to reject you, like they did with the pipelines.  It didn’t matter; I approved them.  But that’s okay.

So we have pipelines — (applause) — oh — (applause) — we got plenty of pipeline folks here, don’t we?  Huh?  (Applause.)  I’ll tell you.  Hey, you know, that’s a bigger hand than we got from the Teamsters.  Do you believe that?  No, but, you know, they did that with the pipelines, right?  Keystone XL.  They did it with the pipelines.  Dakota Access Pipeline.  We’re building pipelines.  And if we get the pipelines approved, then you better work.  The EPA is working right now to get them approved in Texas.  And if we can do — we can increase our — we can increase.  We’re now the largest in the world in energy, by far.  But if we get those approved, Andrew — I hope Andrew is listening — EPA.  Andrew, you know what I’m saying, right?  If we get them approved in Texas fast — they said it will take 18 years.  I said, “Could you do it in about a month?”  (Applause.)  Right?

If we get, though — oh, look at those pipeline guys.  They’re so happy.  That’s a lot of jobs.  But, Andrew, if we get them approved fast, we can increase our entire output.  Texas is so big.  And it’s bigger — it turned out to be much bigger.

I also got you ANWR, in Alaska, which may be bigger than everything.  And they couldn’t get it.  Ronald Reagan couldn’t get it.  No President could get it.  And I got it approved, and we’re all set.  And so — (applause) — so we’re all set.

So, Andrew, in Texas, if you can get those pipelines going, you will be so happy.  We’ll have dinner with your family.  I’ll tell them how great you were.  (Laughter.)  Okay?  EPA.  Thank you, Andrew.

So I want to thank, though, Gretchen.  She’s been fantastic.  I also want to thank Vice President of Pennsylvania Chemicals Hilary Mercer.  I want to thank you very much for investing in the people of Pennsylvania.  (Applause.)  Hilary?  Where’s Hilary?  Thank you, Hilary.  (Applause.)  You’re investing in the people of Pennsylvania, so that’s a guarantee, as far as I’m concerned.

For generations, American greatness was forged, and fueled, and won by the extraordinary workers of this region.  This region is an incredible region.

Pennsylvania Steel raised the skyscrapers that built our cities.  And, by the way, steel — steel was dead.  Your business was dead.  Okay?  I don’t want to be overly crude.  Your business was dead.  And I put a little thing called “a 25 percent tariff” on all of the dumped steel all over the country.  And now your business is thriving.  Probably there’s few businesses that have gone proportionately up like steel and aluminum.
We did it with aluminum, too.  But they are doing well — 25 percent and 10 percent on aluminum.

And they still dump, but now the United States takes in billions of dollars and the dumping is much less, and the steel companies are thriving again.

We have to have a steel industry.  We can’t — (applause) — I mean, we need steel for defense.  We need steel — what are we going to do?  We have a little bit of a problem.  We have a little bit of a conflict.  We’ll say, “Listen, China, could you do us a favor?  We need help.  All our steel mills are closed.  Oh, damn it.  Could you send us some steel, please?  We don’t make steel anymore.”

Well, we make it now.  And I’ll tell you what: Those steel mills — U.S. Steel and all of them, all of them — they’re expanding all over the place.  New mills.  New expansions.  We hadn’t have — we didn’t have a new mill built in 30 years, and now we have many of them going up.

Many car plants — they’re coming in from Japan.  I told Prime Minister Abe — great guy.  I said, “Listen, we have a massive deficit with Japan.”  They send thousands and thousands — millions — of cars.  We send them wheat.  Wheat.  (Laughter.)  That’s not a good deal.  And they don’t even want our wheat.  They do it because they want us to at least feel that we’re okay.  You know, they do it to make us feel good.

But the deficit is massive, which — changing rapidly.  But what they’re doing is they’re buying a lot of our stuff, including our military equipment.  They’re building car plants now in the United States — in Michigan, in Pennsylvania.  Many, many of the Japanese car companies are coming over and building car plants in the United States.  It doesn’t fully do the trick, but it helps.  And those deficits will start coming down very substantially.

But we’re losing $78 billion.  For many years, we’re losing billions and billions with these countries.  And, frankly, the countries that we do the worst with are the allies — our allies.  Does that make sense to you?  Our allies take advantage of us far greater than our enemies.  And someday, I’m going to explain that to a lot of people.

Pennsylvania miners.  Do we love our miners?  (Applause.)  They lit up our towns and powered our industries.  And Pennsylvania factory workers made the American brand into the universal symbol of excellence all around the world — all over.

But, in recent decades, the loyalty of Pennsylvania workers was repaid only with betrayal.  They betrayed you.  They let your companies move to Mexico, to Canada, to China, to many other places.  We ended up with no income and massive unemployment.  Well, right now, our employment has reached the lowest level that it’s seen since the 1960s, and we’ll soon be breaking that record, I predict.  (Applause.)

And you’ve heard me say it, but now it’s even better.  Numbers just came out.  African American unemployment — lowest in history.  (Applause.)  Asian American, Hispanic American — lowest in the history of our country.  Women — lowest in 70 years.  (Applause.)  Sorry, women.  I let you down again.  Think of it: Lowest in 70 years, and I have to apologize to women.  But soon we’re going to have that — that will be a record very soon.  We’re very close to saying “lowest in history” for women — unemployment.

Today, we have more workers working in the United States than — almost 160 million — than at any time in the history of our country.  Think of that.  That’s a hell of a stat.  (Applause.)

The political class in Washington gutted your factories with horrendous trade deals — horrible.  NAFTA — one of the worst trade deals ever.  By the way, World Trade Organization, it made China.  China made themselves.  They did a good job.  But they ripped off our country for years, and with our money and World Trade Organization backing.  And then they took advantage of the rules of the World Trade Organization.  And I’m being nice when I say “took advantage.”  Much more than “took advantage.”  They went up like a rocket ship.  They were flat-lined for 100 years.  And then, one day, World Trade Organization — a terrible move.

And, you know, we were losing all our cases until I came along.  We were losing all our cases in the World Trade Organization.  Almost every case, we were — lost, lost, lost.  They thought we were stupid.  They were the ones ruling.

And then I came along.  Now we’re winning a lot of cases because they know that they’re not on very solid ground.  We will leave, if we have to.  And all of the sudden, we’re winning a lot of cases.  We’re winning most of our cases.  And it’s only because of attitude, because we know that they have been screwing us for years.  And it’s not going to happen any longer.  They get it.  They get it.  So they’re giving us victories.  They’re giving us victories.  (Applause.)

And I’d like to use a different word, but there’s no word that’s quite as —

AUDIENCE MEMBER:  (Inaudible.)

THE PRESIDENT:  Right?  There’s no word that’s quite as descriptive.  I’d like to.  But that’s exactly what they were doing.  They were taking advantage of us for years and years.  And now they understand that if it’s not going to be fair, it’s not going to be at all.  We don’t need it.  We don’t need it.

So, a lot of good things.  And I think we will — I think they will treat us fairly.  I mean, the concept should work.  But people have taken advantage.

Like, for instance, they view certain countries — like China, India, many countries — for a long time, they viewed them as “they’re growing.”  Right?  They’re “growing nations.”  We’re a “mature nation.”  They’re growing.  These are “growing nations.”

Well, they’ve grown.  And they had tremendous advantages.  But we’re not letting that happen anymore, okay?  We’re not letting that happen anymore.  Everybody is growing but us.  You know, they’re all “growing nations.”  We have to work with them, but nobody ever wants to work with the United States.  It’s a disgrace.  But it’s changing, and it’s changing fast.

And I think it’s the primary reason, probably, that I ran for President.  (Applause.)  I’d see these factories all over the country, and I’d see them empty, and I’d see the jobs going to other countries.  And I just never understood why the politicians didn’t do anything about it.  But now we’re doing it.

And, by the way, the USMCA — that’s Mexico and Canada — that deal is a fantastic deal.  And it’s a great deal for your unions, too.  We have the farmers, the unions, the manufacturers.  It’s good for everybody.  We have to get the Democrats to put it up for a vote.  And most Democrats are going to vote for it, too.  They’re under a lot of pressure to vote for it.

But that replaces one of the worst trade deals ever made, which is NAFTA.

But I watched them crush your industries with taxes and regulations, and they targeted American energy for total destruction.  You weren’t going to be able to take anything out.  That’s our gold.  That’s gold underneath our feet.  And they weren’t going to allow it to happen.

The Paris Accord: The Paris Accord was good for other countries.  It wasn’t good for us.

All the while, they expected you to stay on the sidelines, silence your voices, and surrender the future of our nation.  And you didn’t do it, but you didn’t have the right people representing you, so it didn’t matter.  But when you finally had the right person — the person that really cared — because let me tell — this thing is costing me a fortune, being President.  Somebody said, “Oh, he might have rented a room for — to a man from Saudi Arabia for $500.”  What about the $5 billion that I’ll lose?  You know, it’s probably going to cost me — including upside, downside, lawyers — because every day, they sue me for something.  (Laughter.)  These are the most litigious people.  It’s probably costing me from 3 to 5 billion for the privilege of being — and I couldn’t care less.  I don’t care.  You know, if you’re wealthy, it doesn’t matter.  I just want to do a great job.  That’s why — I don’t care.  I want to do the right job.

When this great building company comes here and wants to build a plant, I want to make it easy for them, not hard for them.  I’m not jealous of them.  I couldn’t care less.  Bechtel.  (Applause.)  I’m not jealous of them.

I got sued on a thing called “emoluments.”  Emoluments.  You ever hear the word?  Nobody ever heard of it before.  They went back.  Now, nobody looks at Obama getting $60 million for a book.  That’s okay.  Even though nobody in history ever got that money for a book.  Obama got $60 million.  Think of it: $60 million for a book.  Nobody looks — nobody looks at any —

But with me, it’s everything.  Emoluments.  Nobody knows what it is.  Here’s the good news: Last month, I just won two cases on emoluments.  And the judge was scolding of the other side.  And what it is, is presidential harassment because this thing is costing me a fortune, and I love it, okay?  I love it because I’m making the lives of other people much, much better.  (Applause.)
And each of you here today is living proof that America never surrenders.  We don’t surrender.  And we were in bad shape.  This area was in really bad shape.  And now you look outside, and you say, “That’s like the eighth wonder of the world.”

Under my administration, we’re fighting back and we’re winning because we are truly and finally putting America first.  (Applause.)  After years of building up foreign countries, we are finally building up our country.  Think of it, we protect the border of South Korea, but we don’t protect our own border.  But now we are.

And the wall is being built.  We won that case two weeks ago.  (Applause.)  We won that case.  The wall is being — and we’re going to have a lot of it.  We’re going to have anywhere from 400 to 500 miles built by the end of next year.  We’re building a lot of wall and we need it.  We need it.  We want people to come into our country.  They have to come in legally and we want them to come in through merit.  (Applause.)

The last administration tried to shut down Pennsylvania coal and Pennsylvania fracking.  If they got in, your fracking is gone, your coal is gone, you guys — I don’t know what the hell you’re going to do.  You don’t want to make widgets, right?  (Laughter.)  You don’t want to make — do you want to learn how to make a computer?  A little tiny piece of stuff you put in with those big, beautiful hands of yours.  (Laughter.)  They’re going to take these big hands — he’s going to take this little tiny part.  (Laughter.)  He’s going to go home, “Alice, this is a tough job.”  (Laughter.)  No, you want to make steel and you want to dig coal, and that’s what you want to do.

I was in West Virginia when Hillary made that terrible statement that she wants to close up all of the coal.

AUDIENCE:  Booo —

THE PRESIDENT:  She forgot: In three weeks, she was going to West Virginia.  Remember, she wanted to close up all coal.  She was in an area where they didn’t do the coal.  And she said, “Well, I look forward to closing up all coal.  It’s going to be closed.  Steel — going to be in big trouble.”  She forgot: In three weeks, she was going to West Virginia.  That didn’t work out too well.  (Laughter.)  I won that one by 42 points.  Forty-two points.  West Virginia.  (Applause.)

And I actually think, this time, we have a good chance of winning Virginia, which is a tough one to win because, you know, you have some people there that maybe don’t agree with us.  But I think we have a really good chance of Virginia, too, which is something that hasn’t been won by a Republican in a long time.  But it’s common sense.  Some — a lot of this is — you know, they say, politics — politics — great politics is common sense.

But on my first day in office, I ended the war on American energy.  And that’s common sense, I think.  You know, that’s common sense.  (Applause.)

We’re lucky.  You go to places like China, they don’t have oil and gas.  They don’t have it under their — they have to go buy it and then they devalue their currency and manipulate their currency.  And that costs them a fortune to go out and buy it.  They hurt themselves in the long run.  But they’re devaluing all over the place, as others are.

But we have this unbelievable — the greatest in the world.  We have the greatest resources, which really came about over the last few years.  Nobody knew this.  Fracking made it possible.  Other new technologies made it possible.  And now we’re the number-one — think of it, as I said — the number-one energy producer in the world.

I’m so proud of that because we wouldn’t have been number five.  They were going to close it up.  They were going to close it up.  And it’s common sense.  They wanted to take away our wealth.

That’s what the Paris Accord would have done.  It would have taken away our wealth.  It wasn’t for us; it was good for others.  It wasn’t for us.  We had to pay money to other countries that are very substantial countries.  They wanted to take away your wealth.  They didn’t want you to drill.  They didn’t want you to frack.  They didn’t want you to do steel.  They wanted to take away your wealth.

Now, the press will try and spin that differently, but I’m right, okay?  The fake news.  (Applause.)  That’s a lot of people back there for a — like an 11 o’clock speech.  That’s a lot of people.  (Laughter.)  That’s a lot.  That’s like the Academy Awards during the day.  (Laughter.)

It used to be.  You know, the Academy Awards is on hard times now.  You know that.  Nobody wants to watch it.  You know, why?  Because they started taking us on.  Everyone got tired of it.  It’s amazing.  That used to be second after the Super Bowl, and then, all of a sudden, now it’s just another show because people got tired of people getting up and making fools of themselves and disrespecting the people in this room and the people that won the election in 2016 — (applause) — and the people that won the Senate, without me on the ticket, in 2018.

You know, they never say that.  We won the Senate.  That’s why we’ll have appointed, within two months, 179 federal judges and two Supreme Court judges.  Think of that: 179.  (Applause.)  But they don’t say we won the Senate; they say we lost the House.  And, you know, there were a lot of people running for the House; it’s hard for me to campaign.  But almost everybody I campaigned for won.  We had tremendous records in ’18 and I wasn’t running.  There’s a big difference.  In 2020, we’re running, so you better get out there and make sure we win.  (Applause.)

And we have a record that nobody’s ever had.  Remember, when I was running, I was saying, “We’re going to do this.  We’re going to create jobs.”  Everyone — you know, big yawn.  And, you know, we like — “Let’s give him a shot.  What do we have to lose, right?”

I said that with African Americans.  They had the worst crime rates, the worst education, the worst everything.  They had like 10 things — I’m reading it off a list.  I looked — I said, “What the hell do you have to lose?”

But I really sort of said the same thing to everybody because our country wasn’t doing well with Biden and Obama.  It wasn’t doing well.  And they were pouring money in — pouring, pouring money in.  And it wasn’t doing well.

Even now, you know, you see the interest rates.  I’m paying a normalized interest rate.  We should be paying less, frankly.  This guy has made a big mistake.  He’s made a big mistake — the head of the Fed.  That was another beauty that I chose.  But even with that, we’re paying a normalized interest rate.

The nice thing is you get some interest from the bank.  With President Obama, he was paying nothing.  It’s easy to make money when you you’re paying nothing; you’re paying zero.  Easy.  But even with that, our economy is roaring and his wasn’t.  It was the weakest economy since the Great Depression.  The weakest up.

So we have it going.  Our country now has the hottest economy anywhere in the world.  Every time a prime minister, president, king, queen, dictator, whatever they may be — some are sort of mutual.  Some you have presidents and prime ministers who are actually dictators.  But they come in and they see me at the Oval Office, they always say — almost everybody — “Congratulations on your incredible economy.  What you’ve done is incredible: the tax cuts, the regulation cuts, all of the things we’ve done.”

And they were all saying — and they want to try and copy us.  It’s not easy to copy us. And part of the reason it’s not easy is because of the people like this, all over the country — the people in this room.  You are incredible people.  That was an incredible win.  Thank you.  (Applause.)  Incredible.  Incredible people.  Incredible people.

And here in the Appalachian region, where the Marcellus and Utica shale formations generate one-third of American natural gas — think of that.  You’ve been sitting on this for a long time, and yet, look at the numbers.  Look at the way you lived.  Because you never had anybody that wanted to take advantage of it, but now we’re taking advantage of it.  You’re sitting on gold, and we’re taking advantage of it.  And your future has never looked brighter or better.  It’s so great that you stayed, because you suffered.  This whole region — Appalachia.  The whole re- — it just suffered, this whole region, with great people — the greatest people.  And you suffered.

When this plant opens, 600 American workers will get the fulltime jobs, with quality healthcare, pensions, and great pay to support a family.  And you have — I said before — almost 2,000 construction workers.  And you’re going to another plant because we’re going to talk to Bechtel after this, and we’re talking to Shell.  I mean, you got the boss from Shell.  You people don’t realize, that’s a big deal.  I don’t know where the hell he comes from.  Where are you based?  It’s not in this country.  Hey, how about moving Shell to the United States?  (Applause.)  Well, we’re ready if you are.  Just let me know.  But they have their big USA division.  But that’s a great company.  It’s a big deal.  And that you’re here is a big deal.  That’s a big deal to me, and it’s a big deal to everybody in this room.  (Applause.)  You have the top man — top man at Shell.

But this is just the beginning.  My administration is clearing the way for other massive, multi-billion-dollar investments.  We just did one in Louisiana.  It’s a 10-billion-dollar plant.  There’s more pipes in that plant that I’ve ever seen in my life.  There’s more plant — you know that.  LNG.  It’s an LNG plant.  Ten billion dollars.  And we’re now — it’s totally sold out.  They sell it like you rent office space.  Can you believe it?  It’s all sold out.

All over the world, people have used it.  And you haven’t had a plant like that built in this country, really, ever, because there’s never been anything that big.  But you didn’t build plants like that because, environmentally, they weren’t letting you.  And yet, environmentally, it’s so good what they’ve done and what they can build today.

Investments that could bring more than 100,000 new jobs to this region are now being looked at very seriously.  And I think the hundred-thousand-doll- — I really do.  I feel the hundred thousand jobs, Andrew, is going to be a very low number.  I think you’re going to have many more.  This is an incredible region.  You’re sitting on top of something special.  It’s all fueled by the greatest treasure on the planet: American energy.  And we don’t want people taking that away from us.

Two more companies have recently proposed a 10-billion-dollar investment in the great state of Ohio.  Incredible state.  (Applause.)  We have tens of billions of dollars’ worth of investments, and this is really good stuff that we’re now negotiating.  But these two are in Ohio.  The energy revolution is also creating new jobs in West Virginia, [New] Mexico, Colorado, Texas, Kansas, Louisiana, Indiana, Michigan, Illinois, Tennessee, North Carolina, South Carolina, all across our beautiful land.  You have no idea what’s going on, including, as I said before, car companies.  We didn’t make cars.  Look, we lost 32 percent of our car companies to Mexico — before I got there, by the way.  Now it’s very, very hard to do that anymore.  Nobody is going to be looking that way, I don’t think.

And I want to thank Mexico because the President now has been great, and he’s got 27,000 soldiers on our southern border and on his border with Guatemala, keeping our borders safe.  (Applause.)  Our numbers are plummeting — the people coming in — (applause) — all because the Democrats won’t approve fixing the loopholes and asylum.  So, I want to thank Mexico.  It’s incredible.  We have close to 27,000 — so, you think of that.  We never had three.  I think we had about two and a half soldiers.  One was sitting down all the time.  We had nobody.

And don’t forget, the southern border is 2,000 miles, from the Gulf to the Pacific.  We have 27,000, and they’re doing a great job.  And they’re helping themselves too because they’re disrupting and really hurting the cartels.  So much of that stuff is run illegally by the cartels: human trafficking, drugs, people.  It’s terrible.  And Mexico, I’ll tell you, they’re — so far.  I hope they’re going to keep it up.  I hope they’re going to keep it up.  But they’ve been great.  And 27,000 people.  They wouldn’t have done that for any other President, that I can tell you.  That I can tell you.

With us today are a few of the hardworking Pennsylvania patriots who are making this comeback possible.

Jason Eckhart is the third generation of his family to work on these grounds.  And he’s doing better than any of them.  His father and — by the way, three years ago, you wouldn’t have said that.  Three years ago, his father would say, “Hey, I had it made.”  His grandparents would say, “We had it made.”  Now he can look at them and say, “Dad, we have it made.”

His father and grandfather worked for the zinc smelting company previously housed at this site.  When that plant closed in 2014, 500 jobs disappeared — like magic.  Remember President Obama, “You need magic to bring back manufacturing jobs.  You need a magic wand.”  You remember?  “Not going to happen.”  Well, so far, we’ve brought back 600,000 manufacturing jobs.  (Applause.)

And Jason never imagined he would get the chance to carry on his family’s legacy. But now, he has.  He is carrying it on, and he’s carrying it on proudly.  He’s a great American.  Jason — where are you, Jason?  Jason.  Jason.  Come on up, Jason.  Come on.  Let’s get Jason up.  (Applause.)  Come on up.  Jason.  I’d like Jason to tell us what this great facility means to him and to his family.  Thank you.

Jason, come tell us what this facility means to you.

MR. ECKHART:  Thank you, Mr. President.  (Applause.)

It’s been amazing to see the transformation on this site, from a 100-year-old zinc smelter to a state-of-the-art petrochem facility.  I’m very proud to be part of Pennsylvania Chemicals, to redevelop this site, and create the jobs in Western Pennsylvania for all of you.  (Applause.)

And it’s very exciting to think about what we have to come, starting this place up and having jobs into the future for our families.

As a native from this area — I’m from right here in Center Township — I can appreciate how much this means to the area.  I’m really proud to be a part of this and be proud of all you guys.  Thanks.  (Applause.)

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you, Jason.  Great.  Did you enjoy doing that, Jason?  Huh?  I think so.  You had a big group of people back here that likes you a lot.  They’re giving him a hard time back there, right?  His friends.  Thanks, Jason.

Heather Michaux grew up here in Beaver County, and has been working for Shell in other states for several years.  Now she can raise her family right near her parents and loved ones, and actually be home, where she wants to be and where she belongs.

Heather, please come up and tell us about your journey.  (Applause.)

MS. MICHAUX:  Thank you, Mr. President.

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you.

MS. MICHAUX:  So, for me, when Shell announced that we were going to be building a facility in Beaver County, I was in Texas and I was so excited — but not just for me getting to further my career and move home; I was excited for all the possibilities that had opened up for my hometown.  I was excited because I recognized the potential that a place like this has, for us to be able to hone our existing skills and to gain new ones, too.

So I knew that we, the hardworking people of Western Pennsylvania — and other places in the U.S., too — would now have this fresh opportunity and would take advantage of it.  And that’s the opportunity that I see the thousands of you folks taking advantage of now — not only today, but we’re also creating something that is going to well outlive us by building this site.  And I am really proud to be a part of that legacy, sir.

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you very much.  (Applause.)  Great job.  Thank you.  She’ll be running for office soon.  (Laughter.)  Fantastic job.

Samantha Polizotto was a single mom working full-time when she learned about process technology training programs at the local community college, funded by Shell.  She became the first woman to graduate from that program, and she made the Dean’s List.  That’s pretty good.  Now she’s leading the way as one of the very first production operators hired here at Shell.

Samantha, please come up and say a few words.  Please.  (Applause.)

MS. POLIZOTTO:  Growing up in Beaver County, I can recall people talking of the “good old days,” when steel mills were running and, often, people were born and spent their whole lives in the same town.  Local families had multiple generations working the same industry and, in many cases, the same companies.

This was a fact for our parents.  But with the fall of the steel mills in this area, it began to see a period of stagnation.  Hardworking men and women in this area, full of pride, still lace up their work boots, driving by the vacant skeletons of the old mills and refineries, holding onto the hope that, one day, this area would see its former glory.

The announcement of Shell Pennsylvania Chemicals Plant seems to have kindled that spark within the community.  It has provided an opportunity for steady employment for many different skilled tradesmen, emptying many of the local union halls.

As a young woman, this has also afforded me an incredible opportunity to come into the ground floor of an unprecedented project.  In school, I chose a field far different than many of my female colleagues.  Process technology is a focused area of studies around production and operations.

Predominantly male-dominated careers, I knew there would be challenges as I entered the workforce.  Being a mother and a wife, I must balance my responsibilities at work and at home.  The challenges I have faced have been softened by a network of support that has been given to me not only by my family, but also through the Community College of Beaver County, my coworkers, and, now, the culture of care at Shell.  I am proud to play a role in this project, as it restores this area and makes Beaver County great again.  (Applause.)

THE PRESIDENT:  Thank you, Samantha.  That was a great job.  Thank you.

To help create more opportunities for workers like Jason, Heather, and Samantha, my administration started the Pledge to America’s Workers.  Our partners are providing over 12 million training and enhanced career opportunities to American workers.  And my daughter, Ivanka, is working so hard on it.  She’s done a great job.  Twelve million people, so far, have been positively affected.

Today, I’m pleased to announce that Shell is signing the Pledge to America’s Workers to provide enhanced career opportunities.  By the way, Shell, thank you.  (Applause.)  They’re providing career opportunities to 3,300 workers over five years, right here in Western Pennsylvania.  That’s great.  Thank you, fellas.  Thank you very much.  And thank you, Hilary, for that tremendous commitment that you’ve made.  We really appreciate it.  Fantastic job.

Under this administration, we live by two very simple words: Buy American.  That’s what we want.  I’m going to add something: “Hire American.”  It’s about hiring American, buying American.  It’s about “America First.”  It’s about “Make America Great Again.”  It’s about “Keep America Great.”  (Applause.)

Despite all of this exceptional progress, however, some politicians in this country still want to keep America’s vast energy treasures buried deep underground and let other nations take advantage of our country.  Not happening anymore.

They see factories like this one not as a cause for celebration, but for condemnation.  Democrats in Congress are pushing hard for the Green New Deal.  How about that one?  Green New Deal.

AUDIENCE:  Booo —

THE PRESIDENT:  Where it puts everybody in this room out of work — hate to tell you — and a lot more people.  Everybody out of work.  And other — but I don’t want to speak badly about it.  You know, you’ve heard me say this: I want to encourage them.  That should be their platform.  (Laughter.)  I don’t want to do it too early.  I did it very early, with Pocahontas; I should have probably waited.  She’s staging a comeback on Sleepy Joe.  (Laughter.)  I don’t know who’s going to win, but we’ll have to hit Pocahontas very hard again if she does win.  But she’s staging a little bit of a comeback.

What a group: Pocahontas and Sleepy Joe.  (Laughter.)  I don’t think they give a damn about Western Pennsylvania, do you?

AUDIENCE:  No!

THE PRESIDENT:  I don’t think so.  And other radical plans to wipe out our coal.  That’s what they want.  They want to wipe out our oil.  They want to wipe out our natural gas industries, while allowing other countries to steal our jobs.

Virtually every leading Democrat has vowed to eliminate fossil fuels, obliterating millions of American jobs, devastating communities, and bankrupting factories, families, and senior citizens all across this region.

And, by the way, this is only fuel that has the power for plants.  When you have to steam up and you have to fuel up on these giant plants, these giant generators, these giant electrical factories, you need what you’re doing.  You need this.  It’s got the power.  The other doesn’t have the power; certainly not yet.  Probably never will.

And we’re not taking chances.  And we have the cleanest air and water we’ve ever had in our country right now.  The cleanest we’ve ever had.  And we’re going to keep it that way.  (Applause.)

But we’re never going to allow other countries and outside sources to take away our great wealth, because that’s what they want to do.  They want to take away our wealth, take away our jobs.  We’re not going to let it happen.

To see the destructive results of the far-left’s energy nightmare, just compare the enormous success here in Pennsylvania with the tremendous folly happening right across a line — a little line — ina New York.  Both states have vast energy reserves, but New York prohibits development while Pennsylvania welcomes it.

From 2010 to 2017, natural gas production plummeted by nearly 70 percent in New York, but it soared almost 1,000 percent in Pennsylvania.  And New York won’t allow us to build a pipeline across because New York is sort of a long state and we can’t have pipelines going across, helping a region that’s not a wealthy region at all.  They have a lot of economic problems.  People are leaving, left and right.

We want to get it over to the waters.  We want to get it over to the oceans.  We want to get it up to New England, where they have the highest energy costs anywhere in the United States.  We can’t get energy because New York doesn’t allow the pipelines to go through.  And that’s going to be very costly for New York, ultimately.

As a result, families in Pennsylvania shale country got more jobs, billions of dollars in royalty payments, and wages that are significantly higher compared to their neighbors just across the state line.

Meanwhile, families in New York — I love New York; that’s where I’m from.  Probably, most of you don’t know that.  (Laughter.)  That’s where I’m from.  They’re burdened with more power outages and electricity rates — you never saw anything like this — that are much, much higher than neighboring states and than your state.  New York energy rates are through the roof.  New England, through the roof.  A lot of it has to do with the fact that we can’t get pipelines through New York.  New York won’t let us.  They won’t let us.

All New York likes to do is sue me.  They like to sue me.  (Laughter.)  They’re always suing.  I said, “Which lawyer is handling that case?”  No, they sue me for everything so they can try to stop us by any means possible.  The radical Left wants to do to America what they’ve done to New York: raise prices, kill jobs, and leave our nation less independent and far less secure.

My vision is the exact opposite.  And we want to work with New York and we want to help New York.  They need jobs in New York so badly.

You know, they talk about the environment.  So you have the state line, and over here you have machinery fracking.  And over here you have nothing, except poverty.  Over here you have people driving new cars and nice cars.  And over here you have cars that are 40 years old.  Now, what does that have to do with the environment?  It’s the same.  It’s an artificial line.

And I wonder what happens when they get down there.  What happens?  I just wonder, is New York losing its wealth?  You know what I’m talking about, right?  What happens when those lines go down and they can go in any direction now?  The equipment is so incredible.

So, hopefully, we can help New York.  I want to help New York so much.  We will never allow ourselves to be at the mercy of foreign energy suppliers.  And that’s what’s fighting us.  They don’t want us to have great energy.  They’ve made a fortune selling us energy.

You probably saw the Straits the other day.  Very few American boats are there.  They capture — Iran, I broke up that deal.  That was a good thing to do.  It’s a whole different country right now.  (Applause.)

But they’re capturing boats from other countries.  They’re not taking our boats.  And one of the things that was brought up by the media, actually — and wisely and correctly brought out — we have very few boats going there anymore because we have our own oil and gas.  We don’t need it from the Middle East anymore.  (Applause.)

And that’s why we’re pursuing a future not only of energy independence — but not just words.  You know, you’ve been hearing “energy independence” for years and years, and you’d hear it.  We have real independence.  But what we want now is not independence; we want American energy dominance.  Dominance.  (Applause.)

Instead of relying on foreign countries, we are now relying on American producers.  And we are relying on American workers to build our own future right here on American soil.  It’s time.  (Applause.)

And together, we’re defending the oil and gas workers who light up our cities and uplift our communities.  We’re fighting for the technicians and construction workers here in Beaver County who are building a powerful engine of American commerce.  There’s no place like what you’re seeing right outside these doors.  There is no place like it.

We’re here once again to stand up for the engineers and the factory workers who will shape the work of your hands into American-made products sold all over the world.  That’s what’s going to happen.  That’s what you’re producing.

And everyday patriots who make this all possible, you are the backbone of America.  The absolute backbone.  And you haven’t been given the honor of having that said by other people.  But you are the backbone of this country.  (Applause.)  It’s true.  So true.

You are the ones who work hard, pay your taxes, build your neighborhoods, obey our laws, safeguard our values, raise up your children, make this land the greatest nation ever to exist on the face of the Earth.  You are the ones who do it.  We work with a lot of people, but you are there and you are doing it.  You’ve always been loyal to America, and now you finally have a President of the United States who is loyal to you.  (Applause.)

Our vision is pro-worker, pro-jobs, pro-family, pro-growth, pro-energy, and 100 percent pro-American.  (Applause.)

And we’re taking care of our military, and we’re taking care of our vets.  Veterans Choice: You’ve been hearing it about for 45 years.  I got it approved.  Veterans Choice.  We’re taking care of our veterans.  We’re taking care of our military like never, ever before.  (Applause.)

Because Americans can do anything, go anywhere, and outperform anyone.  Nobody can beat us.  Nothing can stop us because winning is what Americans do.  Winning is what we know best.  We will keep winning, wining, winning.

And I used to tell you the story about winning.  I used to say that your great leaders would come to Washington and they would say, “President, we’re winning too much.  We can’t take it anymore.  The people of Pennsylvania cannot stand winning.  We haven’t won for years and years and now we’re winning too much.  Mr. President, please, for the good of the people of Pennsylvania, stop winning.  Stop creating all these jobs.  Stop creating all this product.  Please, sir.  Please, stop winning.”

And I said to them, and I will say to them, “We’re never going to stop winning because nobody has ever won like what’s happened over the last couple of years.  Nobody has ever won like you’re winning.”  I’ve more than fulfilled my promises.  Even they said, “He promised things, and he actually produced more than he promised.”  That’s true.  But we’re going to produce more and more.

I just want to thank everybody.  With your help, factory floors across this land are once more crackling with life.  (Applause.)  Our steel mills are fired up and blazing bright.  The assembly lines are roaring.  Industry is booming.  And the hearts of our workers, the American spirit, is soaring higher, stronger, freer, and greater than ever before.

I want to thank you all for giving this nation your very best.  And your very best cannot be beaten.  I want to thank you for filling America with pride.  We are proud of you.  We think you are just incredible, incredible people.  And it’s an honor for me to be with you in Pennsylvania.

Thank you very much.  God bless you.  (Applause.)  God bless you.

END

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/remarks-president-trump-american-energy-manufacturing-monaco-pa/

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The Pronk Pops Show 1304, August 8-9, 2019, Story 1: Senator Mitch McConnell Now Says Background Checks and Other Bills Infringing Your Second Amendment Rights Will Be Discussed in September — Vote Out Of Office Any Democrat or Republican The Votes For Limiting Your Second, Fourth and Fifth Amendment Rights — Videos — Story 2: Creepy Sleepy Dopey Joey Biden Attacks Trump By Lying — Joins Radical Extremist Democrat Socialists in Desperate Attempt To Save His Candidacy — Videos — Story 3: Survival of The Anti-American  Presidential Candidates of The Radical Extremist Democratic Socialist (REDS) — How Not To Win Friends and Influence People — Failing Final Four: Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris — Trump Should Beat Them All — Videos — Story 4: Nearly 700 Illegal Aliens Detained In Massive Raids In Mississippi Food Processing Plants — End Catch and Release — Videos — Story 5: A Confident President Trump Comments To The Big Lie Media Before Taking 10 Day Vacation — Winning The Hearts and Minds of American People With A Resonating Message — Videos — Story 6: Recently Numerous Two Seconds or A Few Seconds Videos on Youtube For Fox Commentators Including Laura Ingraham, Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Fox and Friends, The Five, and Many More — Either YouTube is Doing This or YouTube Is Failing To Stop Whoever  Is Doing This! — Videos

Posted on August 13, 2019. Filed under: 2020 President Candidates, 2020 Republican Candidates, Addiction, Addiction, American History, Anthropology, Blogroll, Breaking News, Bribery, Bribes, Business, Cartoons, Clinton Obama Democrat Criminal Conspiracy, Congress, Corruption, Countries, Crime, Culture, Defense Spending, Donald J. Trump, Donald J. Trump, Donald J. Trump, Donald Trump, Drugs, Economics, Economics, Education, Empires, Employment, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Federal Government, Fifth Amendment, First Amendment, Fourth Amendment, Freedom of Speech, Gangs, Government, Government Spending, Hate Speech, History, Homicide, House of Representatives, Human, Human Behavior, Illegal Drugs, Illegal Drugs, Independence, Investments, Killing, Law, Legal Drugs, Life, Lying, Mass Shooting Homicides, Media, Mental Illness, National Interest, News, People, Progressives, Psychology, Raymond Thomas Pronk, Rule of Law, Scandals, Second Amendment, Senate, Social Sciences, Sociology, Spying, Spying on American People, Success, Surveillance/Spying, Taxation, Taxes, Trump Surveillance/Spying, United States Constitution, United States of America, Wealth, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

 

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Story 1: Senator Mitch McConnell Now Says Background Checks and Other Bills Infringing Your Second Amendment Rights Will Be Discussed in September — Vote Out Of Office Any Democrat or Republican The Votes For Limiting Your Second, Fourth and Fifth Amendment Rights — Videos

Is Senator Mitch McConnell Stalling For Time On Gun Reform? | Morning Joe | MSNBC

Mitch McConnell says senate will consider gun control legislation next month

Trump open to ‘meaningful’ background checks after shootings

“All the gun laws they’re proposing hurt the most vulnerable and minorities most.” – John Lott

John Lott on gun control: “The background check system itself is basically racist”

Part of John Lott’s Lecture of the Problems with Expanded Background Checks May 22, 2016

The NRA on universal background checks

What Do Gun Background Checks Actually Check?

 

McConnell wants to consider gun background checks in fall

 

Shifting the gun violence debate, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he now wants to consider background checks and other bills, setting up a potentially pivotal moment when lawmakers return in the fall.

The Republican leader won’t be calling senators back to work early, as some are demanding. But he told a Kentucky radio station that President Donald Trump called him Thursday morning and they talked about several ideas. The president, he said, is “anxious to get an outcome, and so am I.”

Stakes are high for all sides, but particularly for Trump and his party. Republicans have long opposed expanding background checks – a bill passed by the Democratic-led House is stalled in the Senate – but they face enormous pressure to do something after mass shootings in El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio, that left 31 people dead. McConnell, who is facing protests outside his Louisville home, can shift attention back to Democrats by showing a willingness to engage ahead of the 2020 election.

“What we can’t do is fail to pass something,” McConnell said. “What I want to see here is an outcome.”

McConnell said he and Trump discussed various ideas on the call, including background checks and the so-called “red flag” laws that allow authorities to seize firearms from someone deemed a threat to themselves or others.

“Background checks and red flags will probably lead the discussion,” McConnell told Louisville’s WHAS-AM. He noted “there’s a lot of support” publicly for background checks. “Those are two items that for sure will be front and center as we see what we can come together on and pass.”

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., smiles after vote on a hard-won budget deal that would permit the government to resume borrowing to pay all of its obligations and would remove the prospect of a government shutdown in October, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Aug. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., smiles after vote on a hard-won budget deal that would permit the government to resume borrowing to pay all of its obligations and would remove the prospect of a government shutdown in October, at the Capitol in Washington, Thursday, Aug. 1, 2019. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite)

Trump has been interested in federal background checks before – and tweeted Monday about them – only to drop the issue later, a turnaround similar to his reversal on gun proposals after the 2018 high school shooting at Parkland, Florida.

The powerful National Rifle Association and its allies on Capitol Hill have long wielded influence, but the gun lobby’s grip on Democrats started slipping some time ago, and it’s unclear how much sway the NRA and other gun groups still hold over Republicans in the Trump era.

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer said Trump assured them in phone calls Thursday he will review the House-passed bill that expands federal background checks for firearm sales.

In a joint statement, they said Trump called them individually after Pelosi sent a letter asking the president to order the Senate back to Washington immediately to consider gun violence measures.

Schumer and Pelosi said they told Trump the best way to address gun violence is for the Senate to take up and pass the House bill. Trump, they said, “understood our interest in moving as quickly as possible to help save lives.”

The politics of gun control are shifting amid the frequency and toll of mass shootings. Spending to support candidates backing tougher gun control measures – mostly Democrats – surged in the 2018 midterms, even as campaign spending by the NRA declined.

NRA chief Wayne LaPierre said in rare public statement Thursday that some federal gun control proposals “would make millions of law-abiding Americans less safe and less able to defend themselves and their loved ones.”

The organization said proposals being discussed in Congress would not have prevented the mass shootings in Texas and Ohio that killed 31 people.

McConnell has been under pressure from Democrats, and others, to bring senators back to Washington after the back-to-back weekend shootings.

Earlier, more than 200 mayors, including those in Dayton and El Paso, urged the Senate to return to the Capitol. “Our nation can no longer wait,” they wrote.

McConnell on Thursday rejected the idea of reconvening the Senate, saying calling senators back now would just lead to people “scoring points and nothing would happen.”

Instead, the GOP leader wants to spend the August recess talking with Democratic and Republican senators to see what’s possible. Senators have been talking among themselves, and holding conference calls, to sort out strategy.

“If we do it prematurely it’ll just be another frustrating position for all of us and for the public,” he said.

The politics of gun violence are difficult for Republicans, including McConnell. He could risk losing support as he seeks reelection in Kentucky if he were to back restricting access to firearms and ammunition. Other Republicans, including those in Colorado, Maine and swing states, also would face difficult votes, despite the clamor for gun laws.

GOP senators are also considering changes to the existing federal background check system, modeled on a law signed last year that improved the National Instant Criminal Background Check system, as well as increased penalties for hate crimes.

While many of those proposals have bipartisan support, Democrats are unlikely to agree to them without consideration of the more substantive background checks bill.

“We Democrats are not going to settle for half-measures so Republicans can feel better and try to push the issue of gun violence off to the side,” Schumer said Wednesday.

Sen. Joe Manchin, a West Virginia Democrat who, along with Sen. Pat Toomey, R-Pa., is pushing a bill to expand background checks, said Trump’s support will be the determining factor in whatever gets done.

“At this point in time leadership comes from President Trump,” Manchin said.

___

Associated Press writer Bruce Schreiner in Louisville, Kentucky, contributed to this report.

FILE - In this July 23, 2019, file photo, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Ky., speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington. More than 200 mayors, including the mayors of El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio, are urging Senate leaders to call senators back to the Capitol to act on bipartisan gun safety legislation. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

FILE – In this July 23, 2019, file photo, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Ky., speaks to reporters on Capitol Hill in Washington. More than 200 mayors, including the mayors of El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio, are urging Senate leaders to call senators back to the Capitol to act on bipartisan gun safety legislation. (AP Photo/Susan Walsh, File)

Dayton, Ohio, Mayor Nan Whaley speaks to members of the media Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2019, outside Ned Peppers bar in the Oregon District after a mass shooting that occurred early Sunday morning in Dayton. (AP Photo/John Minchillo)

FILE – In this July 30, 2019, photo, Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., takes questions from reporters at the Capitol in Washington. More than 200 mayors, including the mayors of El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio, are urging Senate leaders to call senators back to the Capitol to act on bipartisan gun safety legislation. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite, File)

President Donald Trump is greeted by Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley and Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, after arriving at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base to meet with people affected by the mass shooting in Dayton, Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2019, in Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

President Donald Trump is greeted by Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley and Sen. Sherrod Brown, D-Ohio, after arriving at Wright-Patterson Air Force Base to meet with people affected by the mass shooting in Dayton, Wednesday, Aug. 7, 2019, in Wright-Patterson Air Force Base, Ohio. (AP Photo/Evan Vucci)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/ap/article-7339487/McConnell-wants-consider-gun-background-checks-fall.html

John Cornyn

Sen.

John Cornyn

  • (TX)-R
  •   | In Office Since 2003

LIBERTY SCORE®

F

33%

Highcharts.com

Conservative:
33.0%
Liberal:
67.0%
Conservative Votes 16
Liberal Votes 32
Missed Votes 2
Liberty Score® 33%

Records as of: 08-10-2019

Liberty Score®

Conservative Review’s Liberty Score® grades members of Congress on the top 50 votes over a rolling six-year term. A letter grade is assigned to each member to help you quickly determine whether a lawmaker is supporting conservative principles. The Liberty Score® helps evaluate your representatives and senators, providing the tools necessary to separate rhetoric from reality. We don’t expect any elected officials to be perfect, but we do expect them to keep promises.

Liberty Score Votes

Date of Vote Vote CR Position Member Vote
05/23/2019 Pass a $19 billion spending bill without funding for the border crisis
02/25/2019 Protect Abortion Survivors by Banning Infanticide in America
02/14/2019 Surrender on the border wall; empower drug cartels and human traffickers
01/17/2019 End taxpayer funding for abortion
12/19/2018 Release dangerous criminals from federal prisons
12/11/2018 Pass a $900 billion farm bill with socialist policies
09/18/2018 Pass a promise-breaking cromnibus before the election
07/31/2018 Extend a broken and almost-insolvent flood insurance program
06/28/2018 Kill amendment to reform food stamps with stronger work requirements, upgraded job training
06/21/2018 Block final repeal of ‘waters of the US’ rule
05/17/2018 ‘Penny Plan’ to balance budget without tax increases
05/16/2018 Reinstate Obama’s net neutrality regulations
03/23/2018 Advance a massive $1.3 trillion omnibus that funds Democrat priorities
03/23/2018 Pass a massive $1.3 trillion omnibus that funds Democrat priorities
02/09/2018 Massive Spending, Debt Ceiling Raise, and Democrat Priorities Funded
01/29/2018 Vote Alert: Allow Vote to Ban Abortions After 20 Weeks (Point of Pain)
01/16/2018 Support Unconstitutional Abuses of Americans’ Privacy
12/20/2017 Tax Cut For America
10/24/2017 Bailout Flood Insurance Program & Spend $36.5B
09/07/2017 The Pelosi-Schumer-Trump debt limit deal
05/04/2017 $1.1 Trillion Spending Bill for Democrat Priorties
04/07/2017 Confirm Neil Gorsuch to Supreme Court
09/28/2016 Fund Obama Priorities and Give Planned Parenthood a Raise
06/29/2016 Support a Puerto Rico Bailout
05/19/2016 Support Obama’s War on Suburbs
04/19/2016 Increase Taxpayer Subsidies for “Green Energy” Home Loans
03/14/2016 Confirm Common-Core Supporting Education Secretary
01/19/2016 Lifetime Appointment of a Liberal Judge
12/18/2015 To Advance a $1.1 Trillion Budget Busting Spending Bill
12/09/2015 Expand Federal Control of Education
12/04/2015 1,300 Page $305 Billion Highway Bailout Bill
10/30/2015 Raise Debt Limit by $1.5 Trillion and Increase Spending
10/20/2015 Punish Sanctuary Cities That Violate Immigration Law
06/23/2015 Obamatrade — Fast Track Authority for TPP
04/23/2015 Support Loretta Lynch Nomination
04/14/2015 $500 Billion Healthcare Bill
02/27/2015 Fully Fund Obama’s Executive Amensty
01/29/2015 Approve Keystone XL Pipeline
12/13/2014 Advance $1.1 Trillion Spending Bill that Funds Executive Amnesty
12/13/2014 Declare Obama’s Executive Amnesty Unconstitutional
12/12/2014 Stop Government Land Grab
07/31/2014 Vote to waive budget discipline for Miller-Sanders Veterans deal
07/29/2014 Mike Lee Transportation Empowerment Act
02/12/2014 Advance debt limit increase without spending cuts
12/16/2013 To confirm Jeh Johnson as Secretary of Homeland Security
06/27/2013 Gang of 8 Amnesty Bill
05/06/2013 Internet Sales Tax
04/11/2013 Advance Gun Control Legislation Closer to Passage
03/20/2013 Fund the government and Obamacare
02/12/2013 “Violence Against Women Act”

 

Ted Cruz

Sen.

Ted Cruz

  • (TX)-R
  •   | In Office Since 2013

LIBERTY SCORE®

B

80%

Highcharts.com

Conservative:
80.0%
Liberal:
20.0%
Conservative Votes 36
Liberal Votes 9
Missed Votes 5
Liberty Score® 80%

Records as of: 08-10-2019

Liberty Score®

Conservative Review’s Liberty Score® grades members of Congress on the top 50 votes over a rolling six-year term. A letter grade is assigned to each member to help you quickly determine whether a lawmaker is supporting conservative principles. The Liberty Score® helps evaluate your representatives and senators, providing the tools necessary to separate rhetoric from reality. We don’t expect any elected officials to be perfect, but we do expect them to keep promises.

Liberty Score Votes

Date of Vote Vote CR Position Member Vote
05/23/2019 Pass a $19 billion spending bill without funding for the border crisis
02/25/2019 Protect Abortion Survivors by Banning Infanticide in America
02/14/2019 Surrender on the border wall; empower drug cartels and human traffickers
01/17/2019 End taxpayer funding for abortion
12/19/2018 Release dangerous criminals from federal prisons
12/11/2018 Pass a $900 billion farm bill with socialist policies
09/18/2018 Pass a promise-breaking cromnibus before the election
07/31/2018 Extend a broken and almost-insolvent flood insurance program
06/28/2018 Kill amendment to reform food stamps with stronger work requirements, upgraded job training
06/21/2018 Block final repeal of ‘waters of the US’ rule
05/17/2018 ‘Penny Plan’ to balance budget without tax increases
05/16/2018 Reinstate Obama’s net neutrality regulations
03/23/2018 Advance a massive $1.3 trillion omnibus that funds Democrat priorities
03/23/2018 Pass a massive $1.3 trillion omnibus that funds Democrat priorities
02/09/2018 Massive Spending, Debt Ceiling Raise, and Democrat Priorities Funded
01/29/2018 Vote Alert: Allow Vote to Ban Abortions After 20 Weeks (Point of Pain)
01/16/2018 Support Unconstitutional Abuses of Americans’ Privacy
12/20/2017 Tax Cut For America
10/24/2017 Bailout Flood Insurance Program & Spend $36.5B
09/07/2017 The Pelosi-Schumer-Trump debt limit deal
05/04/2017 $1.1 Trillion Spending Bill for Democrat Priorties
04/07/2017 Confirm Neil Gorsuch to Supreme Court
09/28/2016 Fund Obama Priorities and Give Planned Parenthood a Raise
06/29/2016 Support a Puerto Rico Bailout
05/19/2016 Support Obama’s War on Suburbs
04/19/2016 Increase Taxpayer Subsidies for “Green Energy” Home Loans
03/14/2016 Confirm Common-Core Supporting Education Secretary
01/19/2016 Lifetime Appointment of a Liberal Judge
12/18/2015 To Advance a $1.1 Trillion Budget Busting Spending Bill
12/09/2015 Expand Federal Control of Education
12/04/2015 1,300 Page $305 Billion Highway Bailout Bill
10/30/2015 Raise Debt Limit by $1.5 Trillion and Increase Spending
10/20/2015 Punish Sanctuary Cities That Violate Immigration Law
06/23/2015 Obamatrade — Fast Track Authority for TPP
04/23/2015 Support Loretta Lynch Nomination
04/14/2015 $500 Billion Healthcare Bill
02/27/2015 Fully Fund Obama’s Executive Amensty
01/29/2015 Approve Keystone XL Pipeline
12/13/2014 Advance $1.1 Trillion Spending Bill that Funds Executive Amnesty
12/13/2014 Declare Obama’s Executive Amnesty Unconstitutional
12/12/2014 Stop Government Land Grab
07/31/2014 Vote to waive budget discipline for Miller-Sanders Veterans deal
07/29/2014 Mike Lee Transportation Empowerment Act
02/12/2014 Advance debt limit increase without spending cuts
12/16/2013 To confirm Jeh Johnson as Secretary of Homeland Security
06/27/2013 Gang of 8 Amnesty Bill
05/06/2013 Internet Sales Tax
04/11/2013 Advance Gun Control Legislation Closer to Passage
03/20/2013 Fund the government and Obamacare
02/12/2013 “Violence Against Women Act”

John Lott

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John Lott
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John Lott in 2009
Native name
John Richard Lott Jr.
Born May 8, 1958 (age 61)
Institutions University of ChicagoYale UniversityWharton School of the University of PennsylvaniaUniversity of Maryland, College ParkAmerican Enterprise Institute
Field Economics
Alma mater UCLA
Website http://johnrlott.blogspot.com/

John Richard Lott Jr. (born May 8, 1958) is an American economist, political commentator, and gun rights advocate. Lott was formerly employed at various academic institutions including the University of ChicagoYale University, the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania, and the University of Maryland, College Park, and at the American Enterprise Institute conservative think tank. As of 2017, he is a contributor for FoxNews.comthe Hill, and the president of the Crime Prevention Research Center, a nonprofit he founded in 2013. Lott holds a Ph.D. in economics from UCLA.

He has written for both academic and popular publications. He has authored books such as More Guns, Less CrimeThe Bias Against Guns, and Freedomnomics. He is best known as an advocate[1][2][3] in the gun rights debate, particularly his arguments against restrictions on owning and carrying guns. Newsweek referred to Lott as “The Gun Crowd’s Guru.”[4]

Contents

Academic career

John Lott studied economics at UCLA, receiving his B.A. in 1980, M.A. in 1982, and Ph.D. in 1984. Lott has held positions in law and economics at several institutions, including the Yale Law School, the Hoover InstitutionUCLA, the Wharton Business SchoolTexas A&M University, and Rice University. Lott was the chief economist at the United States Sentencing Commission[5] (1988–1989). He spent five years as a visiting professor (1994–95) and as a fellow (1995–99) at the University of Chicago. Lott was a resident scholar at the American Enterprise Institute (2001–2006). He left AEI for SUNY Binghamton.[6] From July 2007 to 2010, Lott was a senior research scientist at the University of Maryland Foundation at the University of Maryland, College Park and lectured on law and economics.[7][8]

Popular press and electronic media

Op-eds by Lott have appeared in such places as the The Wall Street JournalThe New York Times, the Los Angeles TimesUSA Today, and the Chicago Tribune. Since 2008, he has been a columnist for Fox News, initially weekly.[9][5]

Concealed weapons and crime rate

In a 1997 article written with David B. Mustard[10] and Lott’s subsequent books More Guns, Less Crime and The Bias Against Guns, Lott argued that allowing adults to carry concealed weapons significantly reduces crime in America.

The work was immediately controversial, drawing both support and opposition. Several academics praised Lott’s methodology, including Florida State University economist Bruce Benson,[11] Cardozo School of Law professor John O. McGinnis,[12] College of William and Mary professor Carlisle Moody,[13] University of Mississippi professor William F. Shughart,[14] and SUNY economist Florenz Plassmann and University of Adelaide economist John Whitley.[15]

Other reviews said that there were problems with Lott’s model. In the New England Journal of MedicineDavid Hemenway argued that Lott failed to account for several key variables, including drug consumption, and that therefore the model was flawed.[16] Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue, said that the model used by Lott contained significant coding errors and systemic bias.[17] In the American Journal of Public HealthDaniel Webster et al. also raised concerns about other flaws in the study, such as misclassification of laws and endogeneity of predictor variables, which they said rendered the study’s conclusions “insupportable”.[18] Florida State University criminologist Gary Kleck considered it unlikely that such a large decrease in violent crime could be explained by a relatively modest increase in concealed carry,[19] and others said that removing portions of the data set caused the results to still show statistically significant drops only in aggravated assaults and robbery when all counties with fewer than 100,000 people and Florida’s counties were both simultaneously dropped from the sample.[20] A 1998 study by Jens Ludwig that said it “more effectively control[ed] for unobserved variables that may vary over time” than the Lott and Mustard study concluded that “shall-issue laws have resulted, if anything, in an increase in adult homicide rates.”[21] A 2001 study in the Journal of Political Economy by University of Chicago economist Mark Duggan did robustness checks of Lott and Mustard’s study and found that the findings of the Lott and Mustard study were inaccurate.[22]

In 2004, the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) National Research Council (NRC) conducted a review of current research and data on firearms and violent crime, including Lott’s work, and concluded “that with the current evidence it is not possible to determine that there is a causal link between the passage of right-to-carry laws and crime rates.”[23] The NRC report studied over 100 different types of gun control proposal and it reached this same non-conclusion for all these regulations. For all these regulations, the NRC panel only called for more research.

Only right-to-carry laws had a dissent from this non-conclusion. The pre-eminent criminologist James Q. Wilson dissented from this non-conclusion.[24] Wilson pointed out that committee’s own findings showed “that shall-issue laws drive down the murder rate”.[25]

Referring to the research done on the topic, The Chronicle of Higher Education reported that “Mr. Lott’s research has convinced his peers of at least one point: No scholars now claim that legalizing concealed weapons causes a major increase in crime.”[26] As Lott critics Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue III pointed out: “We conclude that Lott and Mustard have made an important scholarly contribution in establishing that these laws have not led to the massive bloodbath of death and injury that some of their opponents feared. On the other hand, we find that the statistical evidence that these laws have reduced crime is limited, sporadic, and extraordinarily fragile.”[17]

A 2008 article in Econ Journal Watch surveyed peer-reviewed empirical academic studies, and found that 10 supported the proposition that right-to-carry reduces crime, 8 supported no significant effect and none supported an increase.[27] The article was rebutted by Ian Ayres and John J. Donohue in the same journal in 2009.[28] By 2012, there were 18 peer-reviewed studies that supported right-to-carry reduces crime, 10 supported no significant effect and one supported an increase.[29] Other studies on the subject have been published in student-edited academic reviews or the commercial press.

In 2013, Lott founded the nonprofit organization Crime Prevention Research Center to study the relationship between gun laws and crime. As of July 2015, he was also the organization’s president.[30]

Women’s suffrage and government growth

Using data from 1870 to 1940, Lott and Larry Kenny studied how state government expenditures and revenue changed in 48 state governments after women obtained the right to vote. Women were able to vote in 29 states before women’s suffrage and the adoption of the 19th Amendment to the Constitution. Lott stated that “women’s suffrage coincided with immediate increases in state government expenditures and revenue and more liberal voting patterns for federal representatives, and these effects continued growing over time as more women took advantage of the franchise.”[31]

Defensive gun use

Lott argues in both More Guns, Less Crime and The Bias Against Guns that defensive gun use (DGU) is underreported, noting that in general, only shootings ending in fatalities are discussed in news stories. In More Guns, Less Crime, Lott writes that “[s]ince in many defensive cases a handgun is simply brandished, and no one is harmed, many defensive uses are never even reported to the police.”

Attempting to quantify this phenomenon, in the first edition of the book, published in May 1998, Lott wrote that “national surveys” suggested that “98 percent of the time that people use guns defensively, they merely have to brandish a weapon to break off an attack.” In that same paragraph he also wrote that “[s]ince in many defensive cases a handgun is simply brandished, and no one is harmed, many defensive uses are never even reported to the police.” The higher the rate of defensive gun uses that do not end in the attacker being killed or wounded, the easier it is to explain why defensive gun uses are not covered by the media without reference to media bias. Lott cited the figure in op-eds in the Wall Street Journal[32] and the Los Angeles Times.[33]

In 2002, he said that brandishing a weapon was sufficient to stop an attack 95% of the time. Other researchers criticized his methodology. A study in Public Opinion Quarterly said that his sample size of 1,015 respondents was too small for the study to be accurate and that the majority of similar studies suggest a value between 70 and 80 percent.[34] According to Lott, Gary Kleck and Marc Gertz’s 1994 estimate rises to 92 percent when brandishing and warning shots are added together.[35]:8 Lott said that the lower rates found by others was at least in part due to the different questions that were asked.[36] The other surveys all asked people to recall events over the previous five years, while Lott had only asked people about events that had occurred during just the previous year. Lott used the higher estimate because it accounted for his claim of media bias. The survey questions have also been made available for years to anyone who would have liked to replicate the survey themselves.

Safe storage gun laws

In a 2001 study, Lott and John E. Whitley reported that safe-storage gun laws not only did not reduce juvenile suicides or accidental gun deaths, but that they also increased rates of violent and property crime.[37] The study was criticized by Webster et al. in the Journal of the American Medical Association for using Tobit regression despite the fact that the data used in the study on youth suicides was “highly skewed and heteroskedastic“, and because the vast majority of crimes that Lott and Whitley claimed increased due to safe-storage laws occurred outside the home.[38] Webster and Carroll also wrote in Guns in American Society: An Encyclopedia of History, Politics, Culture, and the Law that the Lott and Whitley study’s findings with respect to crime were inconsistent with prior research.[39]

Environmental regulations

Together with John Karpoff and Eric Wehrly at the University of Washington, Lott has worked to show the importance of government regulations through both legal and regulatory penalties and the weaknesses of reputational penalties in reducing pollution.[40] Firms violating environmental laws suffer statistically significant losses in the market value of firm equity. The losses are of similar magnitudes to the legal penalties imposed; and in the cross section, the market value loss is related to the size of the legal penalty.

Affirmative action in police departments

Lott finds that when hiring standards are lowered in the process of recruiting more minority officers, the overall quality of all officers is reduced and crime rates are increased. The most adverse effects of these hiring policies have occurred in the most heavily black populated cities. There is no consistent evidence that crime rates rise when standards for hiring women are changed, and this raises questions about whether norming tests or altering their content to create equal pass rates is preferable. The paper examines how the changing composition of police departments affects such measures as the murder of and assaults against police officers.[41]

Abortion and crime

With John Whitley at the University of Adelaide, Lott has considered crime rates and the possible influence of laws which place abortion decisions with the pregnant person other than boards of physicians. They acknowledge the old 1960s argument that abortion may prevent the birth of “unwanted” children, who would have relatively small investments in human capital and a higher probability of crime. On the other hand, their research suggests that liberalizing abortion rules correlates with an increase in out-of-wedlock births and single parent families. In turn, they argue that this increase in single parent births implies the opposite effect on investments in human capital (i.e., average investment per child decreases under their argument). Using the correlation between children in poverty and in single parent homes with crime they build an argument that liberalization of abortion laws increased murder rates by around about 0.5 to 7 percent.[42] In a review of the literature on the relationship between abortion and crime, Theodore Joyce, an economist at Baruch College and the National Bureau of Economic Research, praised Lott and Whitley for gathering additional data on abortion but criticized the methodology that they used.[43]

Lost Bush votes in the 2000 presidential election

In 2000, Lott argued, using a regression analysis, that George W. Bush lost at least 10,000 votes in Florida after the media incorrectly called the state for Al Gore while voting was still on-going in the more conservative parts of the state.[44] Lott’s argument is used in the influential social science methodology textbook Rethinking Social Inquiry (edited by Henry Brady and David Collier) as an example of poor methodology, and showed how the number of lost Bush votes ranged from 28 to 56.[44]

Other areas

Lott claims that most of the large recent increases in campaign spending for state and federal offices can be explained by higher government spending.[45] Lott also supports the conclusion that higher quality judges, measured by their output once they are on the court (e.g., number of citations to their opinions or number of published opinions), take longer to get confirmed.[46]

Lott has advocated government deregulation of various areas, and has also been published in the popular press taking positions in support of the U.S. Republican Party and President George W. Bush on topics such as the validity of the 2000 Presidential Election results in Florida.[47]

Controversy

Defamation suit

On April 10, 2006, John Lott filed suit[48] for defamation against Steven Levitt and HarperCollins Publishers over the book Freakonomics and against Levitt over a series of emails to John McCall. In the book Freakonomics, Levitt and coauthor Stephen J. Dubner claimed that the results of Lott’s research in More Guns, Less Crime had not been replicated by other academics. In the emails to economist John McCall, who had pointed to a number of papers in different academic publications that had replicated Lott’s work, Levitt wrote that the work by several authors supporting Lott in a special 2001 issue of the Journal of Law and Economics had not been peer reviewed, Lott had paid the University of Chicago Press to publish the papers, and that papers with results opposite of Lott’s had been blocked from publication in that issue.[49]

A federal judge found that Levitt’s replication claim in Freakonomics was not defamation but found merit in Lott’s complaint over the email claims.[50]

Levitt settled the second defamation claim by admitting in a letter to John McCall that he himself was a peer reviewer in the 2001 issue of the Journal of Law and Economics, that Lott had not engaged in bribery (paying for extra costs of printing and postage for a conference issue is customary), and that he knew that “scholars with varying opinions” (including Levitt himself) had been invited to participate.[51][52] The Chronicle of Higher Education characterized Levitt’s letter as offering “a doozy of a concession.”[53]

The dismissal of the first half of Lott’s suit was unanimously upheld by The United States Court of Appeals for the Seventh Circuit on February 11, 2009.[54]

Charges that gun makers or the NRA have paid for Lott’s research

In 1996 when Lott’s research first received media attention, Charles Schumer wrote in the Wall Street Journal: “The Associated Press reports that Prof. Lott’s fellowship at the University of Chicago is funded by the Olin Foundation, which is ‘associated with the Olin Corporation,’ one of the nation’s largest gun manufacturers. Maybe that’s a coincidence, too. But it’s also a fact.”[55] Olin Foundation head William E. Simon strongly denied Schumer’s claims in a reply letter in which he stated that: Olin Foundation was funded by the personal estate of the late John M. Olin independently of Olin Corp. Like all candidates, Lott was selected to receive his Olin Fellowship by the faculty of the university, not by Olin Foundation and certainly not by Olin Corp.[56][57]

In a debate on Piers Morgan Tonight on July 23, 2012, Harvard Law School Professor Alan Dershowitz claimed: “This is junk science at its worst. Paid for and financed by the National Rifle Association.” Lott countered: “The NRA hasn’t paid for my research.” Dershowitz continued: “Your conclusions are paid for and financed—The National Rifle Association—only funds research that will lead to these conclusions.”[58][59] Separately both Lott and the NRA have denied NRA funding of Lott’s research.[60]

Disputed survey

In the course of a dispute with Otis Dudley Duncan in 1999–2000,[61][62] Lott claimed to have undertaken a national survey of 2,424 respondents in 1997, the results of which were the source for claims he had made beginning in 1997.[62] However, in 2000 Lott was unable to produce the data or any records showing that the survey had been undertaken. He said the 1997 hard drive crash that had affected several projects with co-authors had destroyed his survey data set,[63] the original tally sheets had been abandoned with other personal property in his move from Chicago to Yale, and he could not recall the names of any of the students who he said had worked on it. Critics alleged that the survey had never taken place,[64] but Lott defends the survey’s existence and accuracy, quoting on his website colleagues who lost data in the hard drive crash.[65]

Use of econometrics as proof of causation

In 2001, Rutgers University sociology professor Ted Goertzel[66] considered multiple regression to be not of much use in proving causal arguments in studies by Lott (and by Lott’s critics Levitt, Ayres and Donohue).[67]

The National Academy of Sciences panel that reported on several gun control issues in 2004 looked at Right-To-Carry laws in Chapter 6 and endorsed neither the Lott & Mustard (1997) level and trend models as definite proof nor the Ayres & Donohue (2003) hybrid model as definite refutation of Lott’s thesis: the majority of the panel concluded that econometrics could not decide the issue, suggesting instead alternate research, such as a survey of felons to determine if RTC changed their behavior.[68] The criminologist on the NAS panel, James Q. Wilson, wrote a dissent from the econometricians’ conclusion. Wilson noted in the report that all the panel’s estimates on murder rates supported Lott’s conclusion on the effect of RTC on murder.[69] The Committee responded that “[w]hile it is true that most of the reported estimates [of the policy on murder rates] are negative, several are positive and many are statistically insignificant.”[70] They further noted that the full committee, including Wilson, agreed that there was not convincing evidence that RTC policies affected other kinds of violent crime.

In a 2011 article for ALER, Donohue claimed the NRC panel results published from the hybrid model “could not be replicated on its data set”.[71] Lott replicated the NRC’s results using the NRC’s copy of the Ayres & Donohue model and data set, pointing out that the model used for the ALER article was different and introduced a truncation bias.[72]

Mary Rosh persona

In response to the dispute surrounding the missing survey, Lott created and used “Mary Rosh” as a sock puppet to defend his own works on Usenet and elsewhere. After investigative work by blogger Julian Sanchez, Lott admitted to use of the Mary Rosh persona.[64] Sanchez also pointed out that Lott, posing as Rosh, not only praised his own academic writing, but also called himself “the best professor I ever had”.

Many commentators and academics accused Lott of violating academic integrity, noting that he praised himself while posing as one of his former students[73][74] and that “Rosh” was used to post a favorable review of More Guns, Less Crime on Amazon.com. Lott has claimed that the “Rosh” review was written by his son and wife.[74]

“I probably shouldn’t have done it—I know I shouldn’t have done it—but it’s hard to think of any big advantage I got except to be able to comment fictitiously,” Lott told The Washington Post in 2003.[74]

Bibliography

See also

References …

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Lott

Form 4473

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ATF Form 4473, October 2016 revision

Firearms Transaction Record, or Form 4473, is a form promulgated by the Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives (ATF) in the United States Department of Justice that is filled out when a person purchases a firearm from a Federal Firearms License (FFL) holder (such as a gun shop).[1]

The Form 4473 contains name, address, date of birth, government-issued photo ID, National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) background check transaction number, and a short affidavit stating that the purchaser is eligible to purchase firearms under federal law. It contains make, model, or serial number on page three of the six page form. Lying on this form is a felony and can be punished by up to five years in prison[2] in addition to fines, even if the transaction is denied by the NICS. Prosecutions are rare in the absence of another felony committed with the gun purchased.[citation needed] Of 556,496 denied transactions between FY 2008 and FY 2015, federal prosecutors prosecuted an average of under 32 cases per year, including 24 in FY 2013, 15 in FY 2014 and 20 in FY 2015.[3][4]

The dealer also records all information from the Form 4473 into a required “bound-book” called an “Acquisition and Disposition Log.[5] A dealer must keep this on file at least 20 years, and is required to surrender the log to the ATF upon retirement from the firearms business. The ATF is allowed to inspect, as well as request a copy of, the Form 4473 from the dealer during the course of a criminal investigation. In addition, the sale of two or more handguns to a person in a five-day period must be reported to ATF on Form 3310.4.

If a person purchases a firearm from a private individual who is not a licensed dealer, the purchaser is not required in most states to complete a Form 4473. Some states (such as California and Colorado) require individual sellers to sell through dealers.

These forms are given the same status as a tax return under the Privacy Act of 1974 and cannot be disclosed by the government to private parties or other government officials except in accordance with the Privacy Act. Individual dealers possessing a copy of the form are not subject to the Privacy Act’s restrictions on disclosure. Dealers are required to maintain completed forms for 20 years in the case of completed sales, and for 5 years where the sale was disapproved as a result of the NICS check.

Contents

eForm 4473

In response to the Government Paperwork Elimination Act (GPEA),[6] and based upon requests from the firearms industry, the ATF has developed the e-Form 4473 to assist in the proper completion of the Federal Firearms Transaction Record (ATF Form 4473). The ATF eForm 4473 is designed to help eliminate errors in completing Form 4473 for both the firearm purchaser and the licensed seller. The eForm 4473 is provided to the public, including major retailers, free of charge via the ATF eForm web site. ATF eForm 4473 is a downloadable application that runs locally on the seller’s computer and supports both Windows and Mac OS X operating systems. (See “External links” section below.)

2016 revision

In 2016, ATF made several changes to the form, including adding a warning statement that the use of marijuana is illegal under federal law, regardless of whether it has been legalized or decriminalized for medicinal or recreational purposes in the state where the transferee/buyer resides.[7][8]

In Popular Culture

Form 4473 was referenced in the 1984 film Red Dawn.[9]

References

  1. ^ See generally subsection (g)(1)(A) of 18 U.S.C. § 923 and subsection (a) of 27 C.F.R. sec. 478.124.
  2. ^ See subsection (a) of 18 U.S.C. § 922 and subsection (a)(1)(A) of 18 U.S.C. § 924.
  3. ^ https://oig.justice.gov/reports/2016/a1632.pdf
  4. ^ “As gun ownership increases, prosecutions for lying to get a gun fall”.
  5. ^ See generally subsection (g)(2) of 18 U.S.C. section 923.
  6. ^ Title XVII (sections 1701 through 1710) of Division C of Public Law No. 105-277, 112 Stat. 2681, at 2681-749 (Oct 21, 1998), amending subsection (a)(1)(B)(vi) of 44 U.S.C. § 3504.
  7. ^ “ATF Form 4473 – Firearms Transaction Record Revisions – Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms and Explosives”http://www.atf.gov.
  8. ^ “Feds spell it out: No gun for you if you fire up in a pot-legal state”. 23 November 2016.
  9. ^ “Order from COL. Ernesto Bella to KGB Major to find firearms owners during invasion of Colorado”.

External links

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Form_4473

ATF Form 4473 – Firearms Transaction Record Revisions

Image of a man filling out a form

Important Notice to All Federal Firearms Licensees

ATF Form 4473, Firearms Transaction Record (Form 4473) has been revised. This page highlights the significant changes to the form. It is highly suggested that you review the entire revised form including all of the Notices, Instructions, and Definitions.

This form is effective January 16, 2017, you may no longer use the previous edition (April 2012) of the Form 4473 as it will be obsolete. The revised form is available to either download or order online.

The significant changes to Form 4473 include:Image of revised ATF Form 4473

General

Section A

Section B

Section D

Notice, Instructions, and Definitions

Related Resources

Related Research and Background Information

Ordering Forms

Contact Information

 

General

  • Form Title: Removed “Part I-Over-the-Counter”
  • Warning Statement: Clarifies that the form is to be completed at the licensed premises unless the transaction qualifies under 18 U.S.C. 922(c).

Section A

  • Question 1: Clarifies that transferee’s/buyer’s with a legal name that contains an initial only should record “IO” (including the quotation marks, i.e. John W. “IO” Smith). Also clarifies that transferee’s/buyer’s with a legal name that contains a suffix (e.g., Jr, Sr, II, III) should record the information with their last name.
  • Question 2:  Incorporated State of Residence information from former Question 13.
  • Question 6: Changed “Gender” to “Sex”.
  • Questions 10.a. and 10.b: Clarifies that both questions must be answered.
  • Question 11.e: Added a warning statement regarding marijuana that has been legalized or decriminalized for medicinal or recreational purposes in the state where the transferee/buyer resides.
  • Questions 12.a – 12.d and 13: (Formerly Questions 11.k – 12 and 14 – 15): Regrouped and revised the citizenship and immigration status questions to make them easier to follow.
  • Transferee/Buyer Certification: Clarifies that the repetitive purchase of firearms for the purpose of resale for livelihood and profit without a Federal firearms license is violation of Federal law.

Section B

  • Question 18.b (Formerly Question 20.b): Changed to “Supplemental Government Issued Documentation (if identification document does not show current residence address)
  • Question 18.c (Formerly Question 20.c): Changed to “Exception to the Nonimmigrant Alien Prohibition: If the transferee/buyer answered “YES” to 12.d.2. the transferor/seller must record the type of documentation showing the exception to the prohibition and attach a copy to this ATF Form 4473.”
  • Question 19.d (Formerly Question 21.d): Added a check box for “Overturned” transactions.
  • Question 19.g (Added to Form): “Name of FFL Employee Completing NICS check. (Optional)”.
  • Question 20 (Formerly Question 22): Clarifies that a NICS check is not required if the individual receiving the firearm was subject to a background check as part of the NFA approval process.

Section D

  • Header: Added instruction that the firearm information must be recorded even if the firearm(s) is/are not transferred.
  • Question 24 (Formerly Question 26): Changed to “Manufacturer and Importer (If any)” to reflect the language in 27 CFR 478.125(e).
  • Question 24 – 28 (Formerly Question 26 – 30): Removed line 5 and added line numbers.
  • Multiple Sale: Added “REMINDER – By the Close of Business” to the beginning of the sentence for clarification.
  • Question 29 (Formerly Question 30.a): Clarifies that “zero” should be recorded if no firearm(s) is/are transferred.
  • Question 30 (Formerly Question 30.b): Changed to a check box and added an instruction to record the line number(s) involved in the pawn redemption.
  • Question 32 (Added to Form): A check box to indicate that the transaction is to facilitate a private party transfer.
  • Question 33 (Formerly Questions 31 – 32): Combined the two questions.
  • Transferor Certification: Revised language to certify that the form was completed at the licensed business premises unless the transaction meets the requirements of 18 U.S.C. 922(c) and the transaction complies with State or local laws that are applicable to the firearms business. Clarifies that unless the transaction has been denied or cancelled the transferor/seller certifies that it is his/her belief that it is not unlawful for him/her to sell, deliver, transport, or otherwise dispose of the firearm(s) listed on this form to the person identified in Section A.

Notices, Instructions, and Definitions

  • Purpose of the Form – Paragraph 2 (Added to Form): “Generally, ATF Form 4473 must be completed at the licensed business premises when a firearm is transferred over-the-counter. Federal law, 18 U.S.C. 922(c), allows a licensed importer, manufacturer, or dealer to sell a firearm to a nonlicensee who does not appear in person at the licensee’s business premises only if the transferee/buyer meets certain requirements. These requirements are set forth in section 922(c), 27 CFR 478.96(b), and ATF Procedure 2013-2.”
  • Purpose of the Form – Over-the-Counter Transaction (Formerly Paragraph 4): Removed from form.
  • Purpose of the Form – State Laws and Published Ordinances (Formerly Paragraph 5): Removed from form. Information incorporated into Paragraph 1.
  • Purpose of the Form – Exportation of Firearms: Added “Warning: Any person who exports a firearm without proper authorization may be fined not more than $1,000,000 and/or imprisoned for not more than 20 years See 22 U.S.C. 2778(c).”
  • Instruction for Section A: Formerly instructions for Question 1.
  • Instruction for Question 2: Clarifies that a rural route (RR) may be accepted provided the transferee/buyer lives in a State or locality where it is considered a legal residence address. Also clarifies that the State of residence for members of the Armed Forces on active duty is the State in which his or her permanent duty station is located.
  • Instruction for Question 9: Clarifies that the licensee should provide the UPIN when conducting background checks through the NICS or the State POC.
  • Instruction for Questions 10.a. and 10.b: Added to form.
  • Instruction for Question 11.a: Clarifies when a gift is considered “bona fide” and provides examples.
  • Instruction for Questions 11.b – 12 (Formerly Questions 11.b – 11.l): Added a new paragraph between the 1st and 2nd paragraphs. “A member of the Armed Forces must answer “yes” to 11.b. or 11.c. if charged with an offense that was either referred to a General Court Martial, or at which the member was convicted. Discharged “under dishonorable conditions” means separation from the Armed Forces resulting from a dishonorable discharge or dismissal adjudged by a General Court-Martial. The term does not include any other discharge or separation from the Armed Forces.”
  • Instruction for Question 11.b: Removed from form. Information incorporated into Questions 11.b – 12.
  • EXCEPTION (Formerly EXCPTION to 11.c. and 11.i.): Clarifies that persons subject to this exception, or who receive relief from disabilities under 18 U.S.C. 925(c), should answer “no” to the applicable question.
  • Instruction for Question 11.d: Added to form. Provides the definition of “Fugitive from Justice”.
  • EXCEPTION (Formerly EXCEPTION to 11.f): Clarifies when a person is not prohibited under the NICS Improvement Amendments Act of 2007. Language revised and additional information added.
  • Instruction for Question 12.d (Formerly Question 11.l.): Clarifies which aliens must answer “yes” to this question and provide the additional documentation required under Question 18.c.
  • Former Instruction for Question 11.l: Paragraph 2 removed from form. Information incorporated into Question 12.a.-12.d.
  • Former Instruction for Question 12: Removed from form. Information from Paragraph 1 incorporated into Question 18.c. Information from paragraph 2 incorporated into Questions 12.a.-12.d.
  • Former Instruction for Question 13: Removed from form. Information incorporated into Question 2.
  • New Instruction for Question 13: Added to form. Clarifies where U.S.-issued alien and admission numbers may be found. Also clarifies that U.S. citizens and U.S. nationals should leave the question left blank.
  • Instruction for Question 16 (Formerly Question 18): Clarifies that frames and receivers cannot be transferred to anyone who is not a resident of the State where the transfer is to take place.
  • Instruction for Question 17. (Formerly Question 19.): Added the definition of “Qualifying Gun Show or Event”.
  • Instruction for Question 18a (Formerly Question 20.a): Clarifies that licensees may accept electronic PCS orders to establish residency.
  • Instruction for Question 18.b. (Formerly Question 20.b.): Clarifies that a valid electronic document from a government website may be used as supplemental documentation provided it contains the transferee’s/buyer’s name and current residence address.
  • Instruction for Question 18c. (Formerly Question 20.c.): Clarifies the exceptions to the nonimmigrant alien prohibition and acceptable documentation.
  • Instruction for Question 19 (Formerly Question(s) 21, 22, 23): Clarifies for purposes of this form, contacts to NICS include State agencies designated as points-of-contact (“or POCs”) to conduct NICS checks for the Federal Government.  Provides instructions for completing the form when a transaction was denied and later overturned.
  • Instruction for Questions 20 and 21 (Formerly EXCEPTIONS TO NICS CHECK): Clarifies that the exception includes transfers of National Firearms Act firearms to an individual who has undergone a background check during the NFA approval process. Also clarifies that a NICS check must be conducted if an NFA firearm has been approved for transfer to a trust, or to a legal entity such as a corporation, and no background check was conducted as part of the NFA approval process on the individual who will receive the firearm. Additionally clarifies that individuals who have undergone a background check during the NFA application process are listed on the approved NFA transfer form.
  • Instruction for Question(s) 24-28 (Formerly Question(s) 26, 27, 28, 29 and 30): Clarifies that these blocks must be completed with the firearms information. Also clarifies that all firearms manufactured after 1968 by Federal firearms licensees should be marked with a serial number.
  • Former Instruction for Question 32: Removed from form.
  • New Instruction for Question 32: Added to form. Provides instructions for completing the form when the transaction is to facilitate a private party transfer.
  • Former Instructions for Questions 33-35: Removed from form.

Related Resources

Related Research and Background Information

Ordering Forms

The revised form is available to either download or order.  FFLs started to receive packets of 50 forms in late December 2016.  Should you require additional forms, please contact the ATF Distribution Center by telephone at (703) 870-7526 or (703) 870-7528. Forms may also be ordered online or you may print the Form 4473 from ATF’s website and make copies as needed.  Please note that all six pages of the Form 4473 must be printed and retained as a part of your permanent records.

Contact Information

If you have additional questions regarding the revised Form 4473, please contact your local ATF office.  A listing may be found online.

https://www.atf.gov/firearms/atf-form-4473-firearms-transaction-record-revisions

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Friday, August 9
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination SurveyUSA Biden 33, Warren 19, Sanders 20, Harris 9, Buttigieg 8, O’Rourke 1, Booker 1, Gabbard 0, Yang 0, Klobuchar 1, Castro 0, Steyer 0, Bullock 0 Biden +13
Thursday, August 8
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Iowa Democratic Presidential Caucus Monmouth Biden 28, Warren 19, Harris 11, Sanders 9, Buttigieg 8, Klobuchar 3, Steyer 3, Booker 1, Yang 2, Gillibrand 2, Delaney 1, Castro 0, Gabbard 1 Biden +9
California Democratic Primary KGTV-TV/SurveyUSA Biden 25, Harris 17, Warren 21, Sanders 18, Buttigieg 6, Yang 1, Booker 1, Gabbard 1, O’Rourke 0, Castro 0, Klobuchar 0, Steyer 0, Williamson 0 Biden +4
North Carolina Democratic Presidential Primary Civitas/SurveyUSA Biden 36, Sanders 15, Warren 13, Harris 8, Buttigieg 5, O’Rourke 0, Booker 1, Yang 1, Klobuchar 0, Ryan 0, de Blasio 0, Gillibrand 0 Biden +21
Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary Franklin & Marshall Biden 28, Warren 21, Sanders 12, Harris 8, Buttigieg 6, Booker 2, O’Rourke 1, Gabbard 1, Klobuchar 0 Biden +7
Wednesday, August 7
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Economist/YouGov Biden 25, Warren 18, Sanders 13, Harris 8, Buttigieg 7, O’Rourke 2, Booker 2, Gabbard 3, Yang 2, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Bullock 1 Biden +7
Tuesday, August 6
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Biden 32, Warren 21, Sanders 14, Harris 7, Buttigieg 5, O’Rourke 2, Booker 2, Gabbard 1, Yang 1, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 0, Bullock 0 Biden +11
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Politico/Morning Consult Biden 33, Warren 15, Sanders 19, Harris 9, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 3, Booker 3, Gabbard 1, Yang 2, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Bullock 1 Biden +14
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination IBD/TIPP Biden 30, Warren 17, Sanders 12, Harris 11, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 1, Booker 2, Gabbard 1, Yang 0, Klobuchar 1, Castro 0, Steyer, Bullock 0 Biden +13
New Hampshire Democratic Presidential Primary Boston Globe/Suffolk Biden 21, Sanders 17, Warren 14, Harris 8, Buttigieg 6, Gabbard 3, Booker 1, O’Rourke 0, Steyer 1, Yang 1, Gillibrand 1, Delaney 1 Biden +4
Texas Democratic Primary DMN/Emerson Biden 28, O’Rourke 19, Sanders 16, Warren 14, Harris 5, Buttigieg 7, Castro 2, Yang 3, Gabbard 1, Booker 2, Delaney 0, Ryan 1 Biden +9
Friday, August 2
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Politico/Morning Consult Biden 32, Warren 15, Sanders 18, Harris 10, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 3, Booker 3, Gabbard 1, Yang 2, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Bullock 0 Biden +14
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Harvard-Harris Biden 34, Warren 8, Sanders 17, Harris 9, Buttigieg 4, O’Rourke 3, Booker 2, Gabbard 0, Yang 1, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Bullock Biden +17
Wednesday, July 31
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Economist/YouGov Biden 26, Warren 20, Sanders 13, Harris 11, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 2, Booker 3, Gabbard 2, Yang 1, Klobuchar 0, Castro 2, Steyer 0, Bullock 0 Biden +6
Tuesday, July 30
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Emerson Biden 33, Warren 14, Sanders 20, Harris 11, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 4, Booker 0, Gabbard 1, Yang 2, Klobuchar 0, Castro 1, Steyer 2, Bullock 0 Biden +13
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Politico/Morning Consult Biden 33, Warren 13, Sanders 18, Harris 12, Buttigieg 5, O’Rourke 3, Booker 3, Gabbard 1, Yang 2, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Bullock 0 Biden +15
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination The Hill/HarrisX Biden 34, Warren 12, Sanders 20, Harris 9, Buttigieg 5, O’Rourke 4, Booker 1, Gabbard 0, Yang 1, Klobuchar 1, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Bullock 1 Biden +14
Monday, July 29
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination Quinnipiac Biden 34, Warren 15, Sanders 11, Harris 12, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 2, Booker 1, Gabbard 1, Yang 2, Klobuchar 1, Castro 0, Steyer 0, Bullock 0 Biden +19
Saturday, July 27
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
Nevada Democratic Presidential Caucus Morning Consult* Biden 29, Sanders 23, Warren 12, Harris 11, Buttigieg 6, O’Rourke 3, Yang 3, Booker 3, Castro 2, Klobuchar 1, Steyer 1 Biden +6
Friday, July 26
Race/Topic   (Click to Sort) Poll Results Spread
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination FOX News Biden 33, Warren 12, Sanders 15, Harris 10, Buttigieg 5, O’Rourke 2, Booker 2, Gabbard 0, Yang 3, Klobuchar 3, Castro 1, Steyer 1, Bullock 0 Biden +18

1 23 

 

Story 3: Survival of The Anti-American  Presidential Candidates of The Radical Extremist Democratic Socialist (REDS) — How Not To Win Friends and Influence People — Failing Final Four: Biden, Warren, Sanders and Harris — Trump Should Beat Them All — Videos

Progressives worry about the strength of the 2020 Democratic field

The Angle: Kamala’s big con

Here are the candidates who qualified for the third Democratic debate — and those who might miss out

Andrew Yang became the ninth candidate to qualify.

Javier Zarracina/Vox; Getty Images

Democrats aren’t letting just anyone onto their presidential debate stage anymore.

After two debates with lenient qualification standards that featured 20 candidates each, the DNC raised the bar for September’s third debate. The move has created some drama, as various lower-polling contenders are struggling to make the cut with less than three weeks before the final lineup is announced.

We’ll go into the fine print more below, but the gist is that candidates have to hit 2 percent in four recent polls from a specific list of organizations, and also get donations from 130,000 different people. By contrast, to get into the first debate, you had to hit 1 percent in three polls or get donations from 65,000 people — each threshold was lower, and you didn’t need to meet both of them.

Currently, nine candidateshavequalified for debate No. 3: Joe BidenBernie SandersElizabeth WarrenKamala HarrisPete ButtigiegBeto O’RourkeCory BookerAmy Klobuchar, and Andrew Yang.

Three more candidates — Julián CastroTom Steyer, and Tulsi Gabbard — have made some significant progress toward qualifying, though it’s not clear if they’ll make it. The rest of the field seems quite far away and the clock is ticking: The deadline to qualify is Wednesday, August 28.

However, candidates who narrowly fail to qualify for September’s third debate might get another chance in October. The DNC is using the same qualification rules for both events, but candidates will have an extra month or so to get more donations or show improvement in polls, as Politico’s Zach Montellaro reported.

The third debate is scheduled for September 12 and potentially also September 13, if enough candidates qualify to necessitate a two-night event. It’s co-sponsored by and will be aired on ABC and Univision.

How to qualify for the third Democratic debate

To make it onto the debate stage, a Democratic candidate has to meet both of these two thresholds.

1. The polling threshold: A candidate must hit 2 percent or more in at least four polls released between June 28 and August 28.

  • These can be either national polls or early state polls (of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, or South Carolina).
  • These polls must be conducted by one of these organizations: CNN, Fox News, CBS, ABC, NBC, the New York Times, the Washington Post, the Wall Street Journal, USA Today, the Associated Press, NPR, the Des Moines Register, Monmouth University, Quinnipiac University, the University of New Hampshire, or Winthrop University.
  • One catch is that a candidate cannot use multiple polls by the same organization covering the same geographic area. (For example, if there are two NBC national polls showing a candidate meeting the threshold, only one of them will count).

2. The donor threshold: A candidate must have received donations from 130,000 different people. Also, they must have at least 400 donors each in at least 20 different states.

The names of donors who give less than $200 don’t have to be publicly disclosed, so for the time being we’ve had to rely on the candidates’ own claims that they’ve met this donor threshold. (Eventually, they have to give corroborating information to the DNC, which will double-check.)

Javier Zarracina/Vox

Who’s qualified for the third Democratic debate?

So far, these candidates have met the polling threshold and have said they’ve met the donor threshold:

  1. Joe Biden
  2. Bernie Sanders
  3. Elizabeth Warren
  4. Kamala Harris
  5. Pete Buttigieg
  6. Beto O’Rourke
  7. Cory Booker
  8. Amy Klobuchar
  9. Andrew Yang

Currently, this list is small enough that it could mean all the candidates get to debate together on one night, rather than being split over two separate nights as was the case in both previous debates this year.

But the DNC has said that if a “large field” does end up qualifying, this third debate will again be a two-night event. They have not, however, said exactly how many qualifying candidates would necessitate a two-night debate.

So if, say, 11 or 12 candidates qualify — which seems totally plausible at the moment — it’s not yet clear whether they’d all be onstage together or whether they’d be split in two groups on separate nights.

Who hasn’t yet qualified for the third Democratic debate?

There are three candidates who have made significant progress toward qualifying but who haven’t yet sealed the deal.

  • Former HUD Secretary Julián Castro has three of four qualifying polls and says he has met the donor threshold. So he needs just one more poll to qualify.
  • Rep. Tulsi Gabbard (D-HI) says she has met the donor threshold but she has just one of four qualifying polls. So she needs three more polls to qualify.
  • Billionaire Tom Steyer has three of four qualifying polls but he has not yet met the donor threshold. So he needs one more poll and a bunch more donors to quality.

Everybody else in the race faces an uphill climb to qualify, with most having zero of the necessary four polls so far and not having met the donor threshold, either. They are:

  • Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand of New York (has one poll)
  • Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado (has one poll)
  • Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington
  • Gov. Steve Bullock of Montana
  • Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado
  • Author Marianne Williamson
  • New York City Mayor Bill de Blasio
  • Former Rep. John Delaney of Maryland
  • Rep. Tim Ryan of Ohio
  • Rep. Seth Moulton of Massachusetts
  • Mayor Wayne Messam of Miramar, Florida
  • Former Rep. Joe Sestak of Pennsylvania

But candidates will get another chance at qualifying for the fourth debate

There’s an interesting twist about qualifying for the fourth Democratic debate in October, though: It will actually be easier.

That’s because the qualification rules are exactly the same as for the third debate — except that there will be more time for campaigns to make it happen.

For the polling threshold in particular, the third debate requires polls released between June 28 and August 28 be used. But for the fourth debate, that window goes from that same starting point (June 28) up until two weeks before the October debate (which doesn’t yet have a specific announced date).

The gist, as Politico points out, is that any candidates who qualify for the third debate automatically make it into the fourth debate — and on top of that roster, the rest of the field will have another month to try and get the rest of what they need as well.

So what could oddly ensue is a significantly smaller field for September’s third debate that then gets a bit bigger for October’s fourth debate.

https://www.vox.com/2019/8/8/20758519/democratic-debate-qualification-polls-candidates-yang-gabbard

Story 4: Nearly 700 Illegal Aliens Detained In Massive Raids In Mississippi Food Processing Plants — End Catch and Release — Videos —

 

ICE releases almost half of the 680 people arrested during Mississippi raids

Massive immigration raids at agricultural processing plants in Mississippi

News Wrap: ICE arrests 680 undocumented workers in Mississippi

Scores from Mexico, Guatemala detained in Mississippi raids

The governments of Guatemala and Mexico said on Thursday that between them, almost 300 of their citizens had been detained in the southern U.S. state of Mississippi as part of sweeping U.S. immigration operations.

U.S. immigration authorities arrested nearly 700 people at seven agricultural processing plants across the state on Wednesday in what federal officials said could be the largest worksite enforcement operation in a single state.

On Twitter, the Mexican foreign ministry said 122 Mexican nationals had been detained, of whom 34 had been released and notified of dates for hearings with migration authorities.

Guatemala’s foreign ministry said in a statement that 176 of its citizens had been arrested in the raids in Mississippi, 142 of them men and 34 women.

Separately, the Honduran foreign ministry said that two Hondurans so far had been confirmed among those detained.

U.S. President Donald Trump has made cracking down on illegal immigration, especially from Central America and Mexico, one of the signature policies of his administration. (Reporting by Lizbeth Diaz; Writing by Julia Love; Additional reporting by Gustavo Palencia in Tegucigalpa and Sofia Menchu in Guatemala City; Editing by Frank Jack Daniel, Sandra Maler and Tom Hogue)

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/wires/reuters/article-7339509/Mexico-minister-says-107-Mexicans-detained-Mississippi-operations.html

Story 5: A Confident President Trump Comments To The Big Lie Media Before Taking 10 Day Vacation — Winning The Hearts and Minds of American People With A Resonating Message — Meaningful Background Checks — Yes, Red Flags — No Videos

MARATHON TRUMP: President Trump Talks To Media Before Vacation

Story 6: Numerous Two Second or A Few Seconds Videos on Youtube For Fox Commentators Including Laura Ingraham, Tucker Carlson, Sean Hannity, Fox and Friends, The Five, and Many More — Either YouTube is Doing This or YouTube Is Failing To Stop Whoever  Is Doing This — Videos

The Ingraham Angle 8/8/19 FULL | Laura Ingraham Fox News August 8, 2019

The Ingraham Angle 8/9/19 FULL | Laura Ingraham Fox News August 9, 2019

 

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The Pronk Pops Show 1303, August 7, 2019, Story 1: No Red Flag Laws — Should Trump Sign A Red Flag Law He Would Be Betraying His Supporters and Risk Losing His Reelection –Videos — Story 2: Gun Sales Surge As American People Exericise Their Second Amendment Rights — Videos — Story 3: Is The U.S. Economy Going Into a Recession? — Videos —

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Story 1: No Red Flag Laws or Extreme Risk Protection Orders — Should Trump Sign A Red Flag Law He Would Be Betraying His Supporters and Risk Losing His Reelection — Assault on Due Process and United States Constitution — Trump Is Wrong — Videos

Judge Napolitano: Red-Flag Laws Violate Due Process, Unconstitutional

Colorado enacts law to seize guns from people posing ‘threat’

Pres. Trump Calls For Similar Action To Colorado’s Red Flag Law

Former NYPD commissioner blasts New Jersey gun laws

Sheriff Elder explains opposition to the red flag bill

New Numbers On Maryland’s Red Flag Law Allowing Gun Seizures In Extreme Cases

USA: Pro-gun supporters rally against ‘Red Flag’ law in Maryland

RED FLAG LAWS: Don’t be FOOLED by the SHILLS!

Do ‘Red Flag’ Gun Laws Work?

Napolitano on Trump ‘due process’ comments: The Constitution doesn’t like it

President Donald Trump Says Take Guns ‘Early’ Without Due Process | CNBC

Red flag gun laws: Gun-rights advocates say they’ll lead to confiscations from law-abiding people

Are Red Flag Laws Coming? Lehto’s Law Ep. 5.108

Minnesota Republicans remain opposed to gun reforms

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Trump clashes with Republicans in gun control meeting

LIVE SENATE JUDICIARY HEARING ON RED FLAG LAWS 2

Ted Cruz: ‘Offensive’ That Democrats Are Calling For Gun Control After Orlando | NBC News

Red flag law

Psychiatrists and the pharma industry are to blame for the current ‘epidemic’ of mental disorders

Former NYPD commissioner blasts New Jersey gun laws

Jersey Matters – Gun Laws in New Jersey

NJ Attempts Confiscation Of My Friend’s Guns!!! Red Flag Law Gone Wrong!!!

FBI launches study on psychology of mass shooters

Former FBI profiler analyzes Florida shooting suspect

Former FBI agent on warning signs before deadly mass shooting

How the Las Vegas Gunman Planned a Massacre, in 7 Days of Video | NYT – Visual Investigations

Haunted by Columbine | Retro Report Documentary | The New York Times

Due Process of Law: Crash Course Government and Politics #28

What Ever Happened to the Constitution? | Andrew Napolitano

The Natural Law as a Restraint Against Tyranny | Judge Andrew P. Napolitano

How the Constitution Has Been Twisted to Undermine the Free Market | Judge Andrew P. Napolitano

Judge Napolitano: How Teddy Roosevelt and Woodrow Wilson Destroyed Constitutional Freedom

Nation of Sheep | Andrew Napolitano

The challenge of preventing mass shootings through mental health records

School shooting renews gun control vs. mental health debate

Mass Shootings and Mental Health

Mayo psychiatrist: Taking guns away from mentally ill won’t eliminate mass shootings

BTN11: The danger of connecting mass shootings to mental illness

Firing Line with William F. Buckley Jr.: Psychiatry: New Explorations

Thomas Szasz Interview by Sheldon Richman

Thomas Szasz on Socialism in Health Care

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Trump warned by NRA over background checks

 Published 

President Donald Trump has repeatedly told lawmakers and aides in private conversations that he is open to endorsing extensive background checks in the wake of two mass shootings, prompting a warning from the National Rifle Association and concerns among White House aides, according to lawmakers and administration officials.

Trump, speaking to reporters Wednesday before visiting Dayton, Ohio, and El Paso, Texas, where weekend shootings left 31 dead, said there “was great appetite for background checks” amid an outcry over government inaction in the face of repeated mass shootings.

Trump’s previous declarations of support for tougher gun controls, including after the deadly Parkland, Florida, shooting in February 2018, have foundered without a sustained push from the president and support from the NRA or Republican lawmakers. Even Trump’s advisers question how far he will go on any effort.

NRA chief executive Wayne LaPierre spoke with Trump on Tuesday after the president expressed support for a background check bill and told him it would not be popular among Trump’s supporters, according to officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity to freely discuss internal talks. LaPierre also argued against the bill’s merits, the officials said.

The NRA, which opposes the legislation sponsored by Sens. Patrick Toomey, R-Pa., and Joe Manchin III, D-W.Va., declined to comment.

Advisers to Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, R-Ky., said he would not bring any gun-control legislation to the floor without widespread Republican support. Trump has waffled, current and past White House officials say, between wanting to do more and growing concerned that doing so could prompt a revolt from his political base. Even some supporters of the Manchin-Toomey bill, which would expand background checks to nearly all firearm sales, say it is unlikely to pass.

“I don’t think the president or his Republican allies are going to become out of nowhere advocates of aggressive gun control,” said Matt Schlapp, who leads the American Conservative Union and is a close ally to Trump.

Trump has focused on guns extensively since the shootings, calling lawmakers and surveying aides about what he should do – outreach that began Sunday evening. White House officials say there have been a series of meetings on a response, convened by acting chief of staff Mick Mulvaney, including a session Tuesday morning. The president has discussed with aides the idea of a Rose Garden bill-signing ceremony for gun-control legislation, a notion that seems premature to many in the West Wing.

Trump also asked lawyers about what he could enact through an executive order, officials said.

“He seems determined to do something and believes there is space to get something done this time around,” said Senate Judiciary Committee Chairman Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., who said he had spoken to Trump “four or five times” since the shooting. “The president has a pretty common-sense point of view. He’s never been a sports or gun enthusiast. But he is more determined than ever to do something on his watch.”

Manchin said Trump called him at 6:30 a.m. Monday and that the two spoke again on Tuesday, when Trump said he wanted legislation before September, when the Senate is scheduled to return.

Trump did not express explicit support for the Manchin-Toomey bill but asked a range of questions. Most of the recent mass shootings were carried out with guns purchased legally.

“He was inquisitive, wanting to know why it hadn’t happened. He wanted to know all about it,” Manchin said. “I told him we couldn’t get enough Republicans to help us.”

Manchin said he told Trump that he would need to back any gun-control legislation or it would fail again. Those comments were mirrored by almost a dozen GOP and White House aides.

“If you don’t stand up and say, ‘This is a piece of legislation I support,’ we’re not going to get enough cover to have Republicans stand tall. They won’t be able to do it,” Manchin said.

On Tuesday, Trump outlined some NRA concerns in a second call with Manchin. “We talked about that,” Manchin said. “I told him, we don’t expect the NRA to be supportive. Mr. President, in all honesty, when you did the bump stocks, they weren’t for you. They were against that, too. You didn’t take any hit on that.”

In March, the administration administratively banned bump stocks, the devices used to make semiautomatic rifles fire rapidly like machine guns.

A White House official said Trump had asked some advisers and lawmakers this week about whether the NRA had enduring clout amid an internal leadership battle and allegations of improper spending, as well as what his supporters would think of the bill. The Washington Post reported this week that LaPierre sought to have the NRA buy him a $6 million mansion in a gated Dallas-area golf club after the shooting at Marjory Stoneman Douglas High School in Parkland, Florida, in which 17 students and staff members were killed.

Toomey said he has spoken with the president at least three times since the weekend shootings. He declined to elaborate on the conversations, although he stressed that Trump hasn’t specifically endorsed the bill. Their conversations have been more general, he said, but Toomey noted that they had been “encouraging” and “very recent.”

“I will just tell you generally the president is open-minded about this,” Toomey said.

Some measures – such as a ban on assault weapons – have been ruled out, White House officials and legislative aides say. Recent polls indicate a majority of Americans support some form of a ban on assault rifles, though there is a large partisan divide and fewer than half of Republicans support such measures. A July NPR-PBS NewsHour-Marist poll found 57 percent of the public supported a ban on “the sale of semiautomatic assault guns, such as the AK-47 or the AR-15.” Fewer than 3 in 10 Republicans supported the proposal, rising to a slight majority of independents and more than 8 in 10 Democrats.

“There’s no political space for that,” Graham said. “So I don’t think he’s going to go down that road.”

However, about 9 in 10 Americans support requiring background checks for all gun purchases, including more than 8 in 10 Republicans, Democrats and independents, according to polling.

Trump was vague about what he would do in his comments Wednesday, and current and former White House officials said he is often ambivalent on what he should do after shootings.

After the Parkland shooting, Trump expressed support for background checks for gun purchases and greater police power to seize guns from mentally disturbed people. But he faced significant resistance from the NRA and Republicans and abandoned the ideas.

On Air Force One after the October 2017 shooting in Las Vegas that left 58 dead, Trump said he wanted to enact a law to keep such shootings from happening again and would question others for ideas but did not have specific proposals.

After shootings, Trump regularly would poll aides about what measures would have political support, but if they did not gain backing, he was not inclined to lead the charge.

“He would not be blocking it, but he’s not going to be the one forcing it to happen,” this official said.

Some of the president’s more moderate friends and donors have pressed for more-robust gun-control measures. But Trump has also told advisers that he cannot lose any members of his “base.”

“Republicans are headed for extinction in the suburbs if they don’t distance themselves from the NRA. The GOP needs to put forth solutions to help eradicate the gun violence epidemic,” said Dan Eberhart, a Republican donor.

In public, Trump has promoted “red flag” laws – also known as extreme risk protection orders – that allow family members or law enforcement to petition a judge to ban gun access for someone they believe is an imminent threat to themselves or others. Seventeen states and the District of Columbia have such laws already in place, according to the Giffords Law Center to Prevent Gun Violence, which advocates more restrictions on firearms.

White House aides said such a bill was the most likely outcome and had the most support in the West Wing. Schlapp said that Trump could convince Republicans to support some measures seen as less restrictive.

“It’s the best route forward because it can pass, the president will sign it and it can actually stop the next attack,” Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., who drafted legislation to encourage more states to pass their own red flag laws, said in a phone interview Wednesday. He began working on the legislation after the Parkland shooting.

“If you look at all the studies that have been done, you see that invariably, with perhaps the exception of Las Vegas, they all exhibited signs and warnings to people around them that they could do something,” Rubio said.

Yet any effort on Capitol Hill to implement firearms restrictions is likely to face, at a minimum, skepticism from conservatives concerned about any measure viewed as restricting gun rights.

Early on in his administration, Trump moved to loosen restrictions on gun purchases by people with mental illnesses, signing legislation overturning an Obama-era regulation that barred certain people with mental health issues from purchasing firearms.

Some Republican officials have pointedly noted that Graham didn’t consult other GOP senators before forging ahead with Sen. Richard Blumenthal, D-Conn., on a plan to advance red flag legislation through the Senate Judiciary Committee.

A handful of Republican members of the Judiciary Committee, through aides and in public comments, have indicated they are open to policies that would encourage states to implement such laws.

Sen. Ben Sasse, R-Neb., appeared the most skeptical, with a spokesman saying merely that Sasse has asked to review the legislative language from Graham. A spokesman for Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, said the lawmaker “believes red flag laws are one of the tools states can consider, but that there are dangers depending on how a state implements these laws,” expressing concern about protecting “due process and our constitutional rights.”

Democrats, while generally supportive of red flag laws, questioned how much congressional efforts would actually help states – particularly conservative ones with Republican governors – enact them. Senate Minority Leader Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said Wednesday that Democrats would demand a vote on legislation expanding background checks that had already passed the House and is opposed by the Trump administration in tandem with any Senate vote on red flag laws.

“The question is, what difference can the federal government make in what is largely a state decision?” said Sen. Chris Murphy, D-Conn., one of the most vocal advocates of gun control in Congress. “I’m all for federal action on extreme risk protection orders. I’m just not sure it’s going to move the needle.”

https://www.greenwichtime.com/news/article/Trump-warned-by-NRA-over-background-checks-14288843.php

 

Republican senators get behind first federal gun control law since 1994 after mass shootings with backing for ‘red flag’ laws to seize guns from dangerous people

  • Growing number of Republican senators say they back bipartisan bill for nationwide ‘red flag’ laws to seize guns from people who are dangerous 
  • Donald Trump signaled support for the plan Monday in address to the nation after El Paso and Dayton shootings, which claimed 32 lives
  • Bill is by Lindsey Graham, the Republican close to Trump, and Democrat Richard  Blumenthal
  • In sign of fear among Republicans that mass shootings will harm them, Congressman Adam Kinzinger, proposed more sweeping restrictions 
  • Kinzinger said there should be universal background checks, a raise in the legal age to purchase a gun, and ban on high capacity magazines 
  • A major donor also warned the GOP needs to move toward gun reform so it doesn’t lose the suburbs 
  • ‘Republicans are headed for extinction in the suburbs if they don’t distance themselves from the NRA,’ Dan Eberhart said
  • Democrats have also been pushing for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell to call a special session to vote on universal background check legislation

A bipartisan proposal to encourage states to adopt ‘red flag’ laws to take guns away from people believed to be a danger to themselves or others was gaining support among Congressional Republicans Tuesday.

The still-emerging plan would create a federal grant program to encourage states to implement the laws.

The measure would be the first major federal gun control law since the 1994 assault weapons ban, which expired in 2004.

But it will go nowhere near as far as Democrats are demanding, with Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer demanding a Senate vote on a universal background checks bill which has already passed the House.

The bipartisan proposal by Sens. Lindsey Graham, the Republican from South Carolina, and Richard Blumenthal, the Democrat from Connecticut, was gaining support among GOP senators Tuesday.

Donald Trump appeared to voice support for such a measure Monday when he spoke at the White House – but there has been no indication from Senate Majority leader Mitch McConnell on how he will proceed.

The alleged El Paso shooter, 21-year-old Patrick Crusius (pictured) gunned down those shopping in a Walmart and the alleged Dayton shooter was 24-year-old Connor Betts who was shot dead by police less than a minute after he opened fire

The alleged El Paso shooter, 21-year-old Patrick Crusius (pictured) gunned down those shopping in a Walmart and the alleged Dayton shooter was 24-year-old Connor Betts who was shot dead by police less than a minute after he opened fire

Bipartisan move: Republican Lindsey Graham, the Republican from South Carolina, and Richard Blumenthal, believe they can get 'red flag' laws passed - the first major federal gun control move since 1994
Bipartisan move: Republican Lindsey Graham, the Republican from South Carolina, and Richard Blumenthal, believe they can get 'red flag' laws passed - the first major federal gun control move since 1994

Bipartisan move: Republican Lindsey Graham, the Republican from South Carolina, and Richard Blumenthal, believe they can get ‘red flag’ laws passed – the first major federal gun control  move since 1994

Move on guns: The last significant federal gun control legislation was the 1994 assault weapons ban, which expired in 2004. Since then Democratic attempts at more controls have been rebuffed

Nearly all Senate Democrats support red flag laws, along with a growing number of Republicans, including Pennsylvania’s Pat Toomey, Indiana’s Mike Braun and Iowa’s Chuck Grassley, a former Judiciary chairman.

Sen. Rob Portman, R-Ohio, told reporters Tuesday he is open to the proposal, noting that the alleged shooter in Dayton, Ohio, had so-called kill lists of intended targets.

‘Clearly people knew something was wrong with this guy, and yet nobody went to the proper authorities or the proper authorities didn’t respond,’ Portman said.

‘RED FLAG’ LAWS AND HOW THEY WORK

HOW DOES A RED FLAG LAW WORK?

In general, red flag or ‘extreme risk protection order’ laws allow courts to issue temporary orders barring someone from possessing guns based on some showing of imminent danger or a risk of misuse.

State laws vary, but most stipulate that only specific people – usually family or household members – may petition a court for an extreme risk protection order. 

In some cases, a preliminary order may be granted without prior notice to the person who is the subject of the order.

Such an order typically is brief, ranging from a few days to about three weeks. 

Once the person who is alleged to pose a risk of gun violence has been given an opportunity to respond, a more permanent order may be granted, typically for up to a year.

Importantly to Graham and other supporters, before an order can be entered, some factual showing must be made that the subject of the order poses a risk of using a firearm to harm themselves or others.

WHAT IS THE NEW  PROPOSAL?

Lindsey Graham and Richard Blumenthal are still developing the plan, but a similar bill proposed last year by Florida Sens. Marco Rubio and Bill Nelson essentially would pay states to implement red flag law programs. 

A bid last year by Graham and Blumenthal to let federal courts keep guns away from people who show warning signs of violence failed to generate political support.

Blumenthal called the failed effort to create a federal program a learning experience and said the new proposal would set a national standard that states must meet in order to be eligible for federal grants. 

He compared it to federal highway laws where grants are dependent on states setting speed limits or drunk-driving standards.

‘If you have speed limits, you get the money,’ he said, adding that the red flag law would operate on the same principle.

A red flag law may ‘bridge this issue of the guns and the mental health issue, where you identify somebody who has a mental health history that might not be formally diagnosed, but that people know about,’ he said.

Many mass shootings ‘involved individuals who showed signs of violent behavior that are either ignored or not followed up on,’ said Graham, chairman of the powerful Senate Judiciary Committee.

‘State red flag laws will provide the tools for law enforcement to do something about many of these situations before it’s too late.’

In an interview Tuesday, Blumenthal said there’s ‘a growing wave of support on both sides of the aisle’ for the red-flag plan – more momentum in fact ‘than any other gun violence plan’ being debated in Congress, including a proposal Blumenthal supports to require universal background checks for gun purchases.

However McConnell, who has adopted the nickname the ‘Grim Reaper’ to celebrate his success at blocking Democratic bills, is widely considered the single biggest roadblock to changes in gun laws or any significant legislation in Congress.

The majority leader has not publicly indicated a position on red flag laws but said in a statement Monday that ‘Senate Republicans are prepared to do our part’ to address gun violence.

He said he has spoken with Graham and other committee chairs and asked them to consider ‘potential solutions to help protect our communities without infringing on Americans’ constitutional rights.’

Congress passed a modest measure last year to shore up the federal background checks system and approved a grant program to prevent school violence – signs that action on gun violence is possible, McConnell said.

A National Rifle Association spokeswoman did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

In a statement, the group said it welcomes Trump’s call ‘to address the root causes of the horrific acts of violence that have occurred in our country. It has been the NRA’s long-standing position that those who have been adjudicated as a danger to themselves or others should not have access to firearms and should be admitted for treatment.’

However the organization is now significantly weakened by infighting, allegations of financial impropriety and litigation against it by New York State’s Democratic attorney general over whether it broke laws governing non-profits.

In a sign of concern in Republican ranks at the political impact of the weekend of mass shootings, Illinois Congressman Adam Kinzinger published an op/ed on Medium that demanded universal background checks and raising the legal age for those purchasing a gun to 21- and a ban on high-capacity magazines.

Connor Betts had two 100-round magazines when he opened fire in Dayton early Sunday morning.

Kinzinger said his proposal is offering a compromise between those who call for the total banning of firearms with those who advocate for loosening gun restrictions so the ‘good guys with guns’ can protect against ‘bad guys with guns.’

‘[T]hose of us not in those two mindsets are left feeling helpless, frustrated, and at a loss,’ Kinzinger wrote. ‘We have a gun violence epidemic, and to address it, we need to change some laws and change some hearts.’

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-7327315/GOP-congressman-calls-universal-background-checks-amid-warning-party-faces-suburban-extinction.html

 

Red flag law

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 States with red flag laws

In the United States, a red flag law is a gun violence prevention law that permits police or family members to petition a state court to order the temporary removal of firearms from a person who may present a danger to others or themselves.[1] A judge makes the determination to issue the order based on statements and actions made by the gun owner in question.[2] Refusal to comply with the order is punishable as a criminal offense.[3][4] After a set time, the guns are returned to the person from whom they were seized unless another court hearing extends the period of confiscation.[5][6]

Such orders are known by various names, including “Extreme Risk Protection Orders” (ERPO) (in OregonWashingtonMaryland, and Vermont); “Risk Protection Orders” (in Florida); “Gun Violence Restraining Orders” (in California); “risk warrants” (in Connecticut); and “Proceedings for the Seizure and Retention of a Firearm” (in Indiana).[7] As of August 2019, 17 states and the District of Columbia have passed some form of red-flag law. The specifics of the laws, and the degree to which they are enforced, vary from state to state.[8]

History and adoption

In 1999, Connecticut was the first to enact a red flag law,[9] following a rampage shooting at the Connecticut Lottery.[10] It was followed by Indiana (2005), California (2014), Washington (2016), and Oregon (2017).[9] California was the first state to pass a red flag law allowing family members to petition courts to take weapons from persons deemed a threat, after Elliot Rodger committed a mass shooting in Isla Vista, California; the California law also permits law enforcement officials to petition for an order for the removal of guns from an individual for up to twelve months.[10]

Before 2018, five states had some version of red flag laws.[11] After the Stoneman Douglas High School shooting in Parkland, Florida, in 2018, that number more than doubled, as more states enacted such laws:[12][13] Florida,[14] Vermont,[15] Maryland,[16] Rhode Island,[17] New Jersey,[18] Delaware,[19] Massachusetts,[20] Illinois,[21] and the District of Columbia.[22] In 2019, New York enacted a red-flag law as part of a broader package of gun-control legislation that overwhelmingly passed the state legislature.[23][24] In addition to allowing police and family members to petition for entry of an extreme risk protection order,[23][24] the law also allows teachers and school administrations to file such petitions, making New York the first state to include such a provision.[25] Three other states also enacted red-flag laws in 2019: Colorado,[26] Nevada,[27] and Hawaii.[28][29]

Pending legislation

Other state legislatures considered similar legislation.[30][6][31][32] In 2019, legislatures in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and North Carolina are considering such legislation.[8]

The Virginia General Assembly voted down red flag legislation in its January 2019 session, and then after being convened for a special session after the Virginia Beach shooting to consider gun control legislation, opted to refer the legislation to the State Crime Commission for study. The bill is scheduled to be taken up again in another special session after the November elections.[33]

A red-flag bill previously died in the Arizona Legislature, but in 2019, Governor Doug Ducey renewed pressure on legislative Republicans to pass the law in the wake of the shootings in El Paso, Texas and Dayton, Ohio.[34] A red-flag bill has been introduced in the Tennessee Legislature, but in 2019 the Republican-controlled has legislature declined to take up the bill, and Governor Bill Lee has not committed to support it.[35]

Provisions

The specific provisions of red-flag laws differ from state-to-state, on issues such as who may petition for a risk protection order.[36] For example, in Indiana, only law enforcement may petition for an order.[36] In contrast, in Oregon, any person living with the person of concern may file a petition.[36] The California Legislature passed a measure in 2016 to allow high school and college employees, co-workers and mental health professionals to file such petitions, but this legislation was vetoed by Governor Jerry Brown.[10]

Effects

A 2016 study published in the journal Law and Contemporary Problems analyzed data from the 762 gun removals under Connecticut’s “risk warrant” law from October 1999 through June 2013 and determined that there was “one averted suicide for every ten to eleven gun seizure cases.”[37] The researchers concluded that “enacting and implementing laws like Connecticut’s civil risk warrant statute in other states could significantly mitigate the risk posed by that small proportion of legal gun owners who, at times, may pose a significant danger to themselves or others.”[37]

A 2018 study published in the journal Psychiatric Services utilized CDC data from all suicides in all 50 states from 1981-2015 to “examine the effects of Connecticut and Indiana’s risk-based firearm seizure law on state-level firearm suicide rates.”[38] The researchers concluded that “Indiana’s firearm seizure law was associated with a 7.5% reduction in firearm suicides in the ten years following its enactment, an effect specific to suicides with firearms and larger than that seen in any comparison state by chance alone. Enactment of Connecticut’s law was associated with a 1.6% reduction in firearm suicides immediately after its passage and a 13.7% reduction in firearm suicides in the post–Virginia Tech period, when enforcement of the law substantially increased.” The study also found that “Whereas Indiana demonstrated an aggregate decrease in suicides, Connecticut’s estimated reduction in firearm suicides was offset by increased nonfirearm suicides.”[38]

Usage

In the first four months after Florida’s risk protection law took effect, a total of 467 risk protection cases were filed in Florida. Slightly over one-fourth of the cases involved holders of concealed-carry firearm licenses; when an order is granted against a license-holder, the license-holder’s license is temporarily suspended.[39]

In California in 2016 and 2017, 189 petitions for gun violence restraining orders were granted. Of these, 12 petitions were filed by family members, while the rest were filed by law enforcement.[40][41]

In Maryland, the courts reviewed 302 petitions for a gun removal order in the first three months of the state’s law; the petition was granted in 148 cases (about half the time). About 60% of petitions were filed by family or household members, one petition was filed by a healthcare worker, and the rest were filed by police.[42] In November 2018, a Maryland man was killed by Anne Arundel County police officers serving a removal order after refusing to surrender his firearms; police said that there was a struggle over the gun and a shot was fired before officers fatally shot the man.[43]

In Marion County, Indiana (which contains Indianapolis, and the most of the uses of Indiana’s ERPO law), a 2015 study published in the journal Behavioral Sciences & the Law found that seizure petitions were filed in court 404 times between 2006 and 2013, from persons identified at being a risk of suicide (68%), violence (21%), or psychosis (16%). The study found that 28% of firearm-seizure cases involved a domestic dispute and 26% involved intoxication. The study found that “The seized firearms were retained by the court at the initial hearing in 63% of cases; this retention was closely linked to the defendant’s failure to appear at the hearing. The court dismissed 29% of cases at the initial hearing, closely linked to the defendant’s presence at the hearing. In subsequent hearings of cases not dismissed, the court ordered the destruction of the firearms in 72% of cases, all when the individual did not appear in court, and dismissed 24% of the cases, all when the individual was present at the hearing.”[44]

In Connecticut, some 764 “imminent risk” gun seizures were served between October 1999 and July 2013, according to a 2014 study in the Connecticut Law Review.[45] Of gun seizure orders served, 91.5% were directed at men and 8.5% were directed to women, and the average age of the individuals was 47.4 years old.[45] Police reports associated with the Connecticut gun seizures in 1999 to 2013 indicated that at the time of confiscation, about 30% of the subject gun owners “showed evidence of alcohol consumption” and about 10% “indicated using prescribed pain medications.”[45] At the time the warrants were served, the majority of gun owners (60% of men and 80% of women) were sent to a local hospital emergency department for an emergency evaluation; a minority (20%) were arrested.[45] The study noted that “In over 70% of the cases, the outcome of the hearings was unknown. For the cases with outcomes reported, the judges ruled that the weapons needed to be held by the state 68% of the time. Weapons were returned in only twenty of the reported cases. In fifteen other cases, guns were given to a family member; in thirty cases, the guns were destroyed.”[45]

Federal legislative proposals

Senator Dianne FeinsteinDemocrat of California, introduced a bill, the Extreme Risk Protection Order Act, which would allow states to use grants to develop red flag laws and make it a federal felony under 18 U.S. Code § 922(g) to possess a firearm in violation of a state red flag law. The legislation is supported by 25 Democratic senators and two Democratic-aligned independent senators.[46][47] Senator Marco RubioRepublican of Florida, introduced a separate bipartisan bill that would use grants to encourage the passage of state red-flag laws.[46] Senator Lindsey Graham, Republican of South Carolina, said in 2019 that he also planned to introduce legislation to encourage states to pass red flag laws.[36]

Support and opposition

An April 2018 poll found that 85% of registered voters support laws that would “allow the police to take guns away from people who have been found by a judge to be a danger to themselves or others” (71% “strongly supported” while 14% “somewhat supported” such laws).[48][49] State-level polling in Colorado and Michigan has shown similar levels of support.[50][51]

Democrats and some Republicans are receptive to this law.[2] Such laws are supported by groups that support gun control, such as Brady Campaign to Prevent Gun Violence and Everytown for Gun Safety. The latter group conducted a nationwide study showing that the perpetrators of mass shootings showed warning signs before the event 42% of the time.[13]

Opponents of red flag laws argue that such legislation infringes on the constitutional right to bear arms and the right to due process of law, and object to ex parte hearings.[52][53][54] There has been debate about how soon after the ex parte hearing the adversarial hearing should be held; for example, in Virginia, state senator Glen Sturtevant argued that instead of 14 days, he “would think that for an important issue like this, we would want to have that hearing within 48 hours.”[55]

The National Rifle Association (NRA) had previously argued that red flag laws unnecessarily hamper the right to due process of individuals who are restrained by them,[30] and worked to defeat such legislation in Utah and Maryland.[56] In a March 2018 policy reversal, the NRA suggested that it might support such laws, but conditioned any openness to such laws on an extensive list of conditions,[31][56] including a judicial finding by “clear and convincing evidence” that the person poses a significant risk of danger.[56] The NRA did not identify any federal or state red flag laws that it supported,[56] and even after its March 2018 announcement continued to work to defeat or weaken red flag bills introduced in state legislatures.[57] In summer 2018, the NRA mobilized to defeat red-flag legislation proposed in Pennsylvania because it objected to allowing initial hearings ex parte.[57] In Arizona in 2019, the NRA ghostwrote an opinion piece for sheriffs to submit to the local press stating their opposition to the legislation.[58] A 2019 study by gun rights advocate John Lott found red flag laws have no significant effect on murder, suicide, the number of people killed in mass public shootings, robbery, aggravated assault, or burglary.[59]

Some counties and cities have adopted “Second Amendment sanctuary” resolutions in opposition to red flag laws.[58][60][61] As of 2019, some 75 jurisdictions have declared themselves sanctuaries that oppose emergency protection orders and enforcement of gun background checks, at times with assistance from the NRA.[58]

In the wake of the El Paso, Texas shooting and Dayton, Ohio shooting of August 4 and 5, 2019, President Donald Trump called on states to implement red flag laws to help remove guns from “those judged to pose a grave risk to public safety.”[36]

See also

References …

External links

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Red_flag_law

Story 2: Gun Sales Surge As American People Exercise Their Second Amendment Rights — Videos

‘The Second Amendment gives us that freedom;’ Local gun shops likely to see increase in sales after

I need the ability to defend myself;’ Local gun shops likely to see increase in sales after mass

Democrats renew calls for gun control after massacres

Gun sales surge fueled by first-timers, mostly for ‘concealed’ pistols

Story 3: Is The U.S. Economy Going Into a Recession?

See the source image

Bill Maher says recession is ‘worth it’ if Trump loses in 2020

JPMorgan CEO’s bold economic prediction for 2019

Hedge Fund Legend Ray Dalio On The Economy

How The Economic Machine Works by Ray Dalio

Keiser Report: Negative Rates Are Coming (E1357)

See the source image

Catarina Saraiva

Growth in the world’s biggest economy will average 2.3% this year, down from 2.5% seen in a July survey. Gross domestic product expansion is forecast to slow to a 1.8% annualized pace in the third quarter, from 3.1% in the first three months of the year and 2.1% in the second quarter.

“Trade tensions are needlessly roiling financial markets, which could eventually destabilize a stable economy,” Parul Jain, chief investment strategist at Macrofin Analytics LLC in Wayne, New Jersey, said in comments attached to her survey response.

President Donald Trump last week announced new tariffs on imported Chinese goods, to take effect on Sept. 1, causing steep declines in global stock markets. The S&P 500 index of U.S. stocks has fallen more than 3% since July 31. That was the day the Federal Reserve cut interest rates for the first time since 2008, to a range of 2% to 2.25%, in a bid to support the economy.

Economists moved up expectations for the next Fed interest-rate cut to September from December and now see a 25-basis-point reduction in the benchmark rate, to a range of 1.75% to 2%, at the next meeting, according to the poll.

Global growth forecasts for 2019 were also cut, to 3.2% from 3.3%. Bloomberg’s survey was conducted Aug. 2 to Aug. 7.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/recession-odds-rise-as-economists-cut-growth-estimates/ar-AAFwDzK

 

 

 

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The Pronk Pops Show 1302, August 6, 2019, Story 1: Big Lie Media and Big Government Have Lost The Trust of The American People — Junk Journalism Is Progressive Propaganda or The Democrat Party Line — Trust No-one — Videos –Story 2: The Rhetoric of Robert F. Kennedy, Robert Francis “Beto” O’Rourke, Mike Pence and Donald Trump — Radical Extremist Democrats Socialist Flaming Hatred And Demonizing American People — Betrayal of American People — Videos 

Posted on August 7, 2019. Filed under: 2020 Democrat Candidates, 2020 President Candidates, 2020 Republican Candidates, Addiction, American History, Assault, Bernie Sanders, Blogroll, Breaking News, Cartoons, Communications, Congress, Corey Booker, Corruption, Countries, Crime, Culture, Donald J. Trump, Donald J. Trump, Donald J. Trump, Donald Trump, Drugs, Economics, Education, Elections, Elizabeth Warren, Empires, Employment, Federal Government, Fifth Amendment, First Amendment, Fourth Amendment, Government, Government Dependency, Government Spending, Hate Speech, Health, Homicide, House of Representatives, Housing, Human, Human Behavior, Illegal Drugs, Illegal Immigration, Immigration, Independence, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Language, Law, Legal Drugs, Legal Immigration, Life, Lying, Media, Military Spending, News, Overweight, Pete Buttigieg, Philosophy, Photos, Pistols, Polls, President Trump, Progressives, Radio, Raymond Thomas Pronk, Resources, Rifles, Rule of Law, Scandals, Second Amendment, Security, Senate, Spying, Terror, Terrorism, Unemployment, United States Constitution, United States of America, Videos, Violence, War, Wealth, Weapons, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , |

 

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Story 1: Big Lie Media and Big Government Have Lost The Trust of The American People — Junk Journalism Is Progressive Propaganda or The Democrat Party Line — Trust No-one — Videos —

As People Lose Trust in Media Outlets, More People Turn Away from TV News | Subverse

News

Here’s Why Americans Don’t Trust Government, Tech, and Media

Gallup poll reveals Americans are losing trust in government

Elaine Kamarck on why Americans’ low trust in government

Whether you trust scientists may depend on your political party, survey says

Trust in the Media Hits Rock Bottom

Can You Trust The Press?

Gallup poll: Americans’ trust in media reaches record low

Americans trust business more than government?

Jordan Peterson – The Economy Runs on Trust

Jordan Peterson – Trust, betrayal and the underworld

Jordan Peterson on Trust ,Naivety

Trust: The Most Important Natural Resource – Dr. Jordan B Peterson

The Great Degeneration: How Institutions Decay and Economies Die

 

Trust no one? Americans lack faith in the government, the media and each other, survey finds

A study recently published in the Journal of Epidemiology and Community Health found those who showed higher signs of trust lived longer than those who didn’t. Buzz60’s Mercer Morrison has the story. Buzz60

Three-quarters of Americans believe trust in the federal government is shrinking, and more than two-thirds say the same for personal trust, according to a study released Monday by the Pew Research Center. 

The survey of 10,618 U.S. adults found those who tend to be less trustful in their personal lives also tend to be less trustful of institutions, which includes elected officials, the military, religious leaders and the media.

“Many people no longer think the federal government can actually be a force for good or change in their lives. This kind of apathy and disengagement will lead to an even worse and less representative government,” one survey respondent said.

Analysis: People trust science. So why don’t they believe it?

Gallup: The public institution Americans trust more than any other

Despite the current outlook, Americans are hopeful declining trust is a solvable problem. The survey found 84% believe confidence in the federal government can be improved, and 86% think the same of confidence in one another.

Other key findings:

  • 69% say the federal government withholds important information from the public
  • 61% say the news media ignores important stories
  • 58% of adults are not confident people can hold civil conversations with those who have different views
  • 57% are not confident people will cast informed votes in elections
  • Young adults are about half as hopeful as older Americans when asked how confident they are that Americans respect the rights of those who are not like them
  • The share of whites who show high levels of trust (27%) is twice as high as the share of blacks (13%) and Hispanics (12%).

Democrats are more likely than Republicans to say trust in the federal government is shrinking (82% vs. 66%) and that makes it harder to solve many of the country’s problems (70% vs. 57%). 

But there is one thing Americans agree on regardless of politics: Trust in both the federal government and in one another must improve. Among the solutions respondents provided: less political partisanship, tribalism and sensationalist stories, and more empathy all around. 

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2019/07/23/pew-study-american-trust-declines-government-media-and-each-other/1798963001/

 

Most Americans say they have lost trust in the media

THE RESULTS OF A NEW Knight Foundation and Gallup poll released on Tuesday won’t come as a huge surprise to most journalists: Trust in the media is down. Again.

A majority of those who were surveyed said they had lost trust in the media in recent years, and more than 30 percent of those who identified themselves as being on the conservative end of the spectrum said they had not only lost faith in the media, but they “expect that change to be permanent.” According to a separate Gallup poll from earlier this year that tracked trust in major institutions, newspapers and television news were among the lowest, exceeded only by Congress.

Is this decline in trust related to the repeated attacks on “the lying media” by President Trump and his supporters, who like to describe the press as “the enemy of the people?” That kind of analysis is beyond the scope of the latest Knight/Gallup study, but it has to be part of the backdrop. Respondents who said they paid the least amount of attention to the news were among those who mistrusted the media the most—is that because all they hear about the media is that it makes things up and is out to get the president?

When people were asked why they don’t trust the media, about 45 percent referred to things like inaccuracy, bias, “fake news,” and “alternative facts,” the latter two being common descriptions given by Donald Trump and members of his administration. A general lack of credibility and the fact that reports are “based on opinions or emotions” are two of the other reasons given for a loss of trust. About 10 percent of those surveyed also mentioned sensationalism, “clickbait,” or hype as a negative factor. Interestingly, twice as many young adults (18 to 34) as older respondents said politically focused coverage or partisan bias was a factor in their lack of trust.

The study did try to come up with a few rays of light. For example, the survey asked people whether they thought their trust in media might be restored somehow, and almost 70 percent of them said yes—60 percent of those who identified themselves as Republicans and 86 percent of those who said they were Democrats. And what might restore that lost trust? Respondents chose a variety of factors such as accuracy (including “not reporting stories before [a news outlet] verifies all the facts and being willing to correct mistakes it makes”), as well as lack of bias, and transparency (including “providing fact-checking resources and providing links to research and facts that back up [the news outlet’s] reporting”).

As the study’s authors admit, however, these proposed solutions aren’t as straightforward as they might appear. Whether a news outlet is being accurate when reporting the facts of a story, for example, is something different readers are going to come to different conclusions on, depending in some cases on their political views. If an outlet reports that Donald Trump is under suspicion for influence peddling with the Russians, to take just one hypothetical example, those who are inclined to believe this may see it as accurate, while those who vehemently disagree will see it as inaccurate and therefore untrustworthy. Trust, as an earlier Knight/Gallup poll suggests, is a slippery topic when it comes to the media.Here are some more links about the complex relationship between trust and the media:

  • The rebound effect: Both Twitter and Facebook have talked about trying to expose users to a broader range of views to burst their filter bubbles, but a sociologist writing in The New York Times says his research shows that doing this causes people to become more entrenched in their views, not less.
  • What about trust ratings? Another experiment by Knight and Gallup using the same testing platform looked at whether crowdsourced ratings of trust or accuracy changed people’s expectations about a news article, and it turns out they do—stories that have trust ratings are actually trusted less than those that don’t.
  • A culture of listening: The American Press Institute recently held a symposium on ways that media organizations can help to build or regain the trust of their readers, and those who participated came up with a number of recommendations, including talking with “ex-fans” to see why they left, and also not being an “ask-hole.”
  • Optimizing for trust: New York University journalism professor Jay Rosen has written about what it means when a media outlet “optimizes for trust,” a recipe that includes transparency about potential conflicts, a commitment to accuracy, and a view of readers that sees them more as contributors rather than just consumers of content.

Other notable stories:

  • Brazilian fact-checkers working with Facebook to flag fake news stories in the run-up to elections in that country next month say they have been harassed and even subjected to death threats for their work, according to a report from Poynter.
  • Cory Doctorow writes about why European authors, journalists, and publishers need to fight the European Union’s newly proposed copyright laws, which could forceonline services and publishers to remove content if it matches an index of copyrighted works, and could also impose a tax for linking to external articles.
  • Bryan Goldberg, the founder and CEO of Bustle, plans to re-launch Gawker, the flagship site of the former Gawker Media, which filed for bankruptcy after a lawsuit launched by former wrestler Hulk Hogan. Goldberg acquired the domain name and archives of Gawker for $1.3 million in an auction in July.
  • Facebook is testing a new feature in its CrowdTangle service for journalists that would allow them to flag a news story as inaccurate from inside the service. CrowdTangle, which Facebook acquired in 2016, allows journalists and other users of the tool to see what stories, photos and videos are trending on the network.
  • Twitter and Facebook may get most of the attention when it comes to news, but a Pew Research Center study seems to show that Reddit is the most news-centric social service of them all. According to the survey, 73 percent of Reddit users say they get their news there, compared with 71 percent for Twitter and 67 percent for Facebook.
  • Nick Diakopoulos writes for CJR about an emerging category of social-media “bots” or automated accounts that actually help rather than cause harm, by aggregating or distributing information that has public value, including automated accounts that track changes in New York Times articles or Wikipedia entries.
  • Left-leaning news site ThinkProgress has complained that one of its articles was improperly flagged as inaccurate by The Weekly Standard, a conservative site that is a member of Facebook’s fact-checking program. Alexios Mantzarlis, who runs the International Fact-Checking Network, wrote on Twitter about some of the problems raised by the case, which he says were exacerbated by the post’s headline.

 

 

Trust and Mistrust in Americans’ Views of Scientific Experts

More Americans have confidence in scientists, but there are political divides over the role of scientific experts in policy issues

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Americans' confidence that scientists act in the public interest is up since 2016

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

In an era when science and politics often appear to collide, public confidence in scientists is on the upswing, and six-in-ten Americans say scientists should play an active role in policy debates about scientific issues, according to a new Pew Research Center survey.

The survey finds public confidence in scientists on par with confidence in the military. It also exceeds the levels of public confidence in other groups and institutions, including the media, business leaders and elected officials.

At the same time, Americans are divided along party lines in terms of how they view the value and objectivity of scientists and their ability to act in the public interest. And, while political divides do not carry over to views of all scientists and scientific issues, there are particularly sizable gaps between Democrats and Republicans when it comes to trust in scientists whose work is related to the environment.

Higher levels of familiarity with the work of scientists are associated with more positive and more trusting views of scientists regarding their competence, credibility and commitment to the public, the survey shows.

Overall, 86% of Americans say they have at least “a fair amount” of confidence in scientists to act in the public interest. This includes 35% who have “a great deal” of confidence, up from 21% in 2016.

But a partisan divide persists. More Democrats (43%) than Republicans (27%) have “a great deal” of confidence in scientists – a difference of 16 percentage points. The gap between the two parties on this issue (including independents who identify with each party, respectively) was 11 percentage points in 2016 and has remained at least that large since.

There are also clear political divisions over the role of scientific experts in policy matters, with Democrats more likely to want experts involved and to trust their judgment. Most Democrats (73%) believe scientists should take an active role in scientific policy debates. By contrast, a majority of Republicans (56%) say scientists should focus on establishing sound scientific facts and stay out of such policy debates. The two political groups also differ over whether scientific experts are generally better at making decisions about scientific policy issues than other people: 54% of Democrats say they are, while 66% of Republicans think scientists’ decisions are no different from or worse than other people’s. Finally, Democrats and Republicans have different degrees of faith in scientists’ ability to be unbiased; 62% of Democrats say scientists’ judgments are based solely on facts, while 55% of Republicans say scientists’ judgments are just as likely to be biased as other people’s.

Political differences over scientific experts

 

 

Confidence in scientists is stronger among those with high science knowledge and among Democrats

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Center’s new survey highlights the degree to which the public values scientific expertise and how those perceptions are sometimes shaped by the crosscurrents of politics as well as familiarity with scientists and their work. More specifically, it shines a spotlight on trust and potential sources of mistrust connected with scientists who work in three fields: medicine, nutrition and the environment. They include medical research scientists, medical doctors, nutrition research scientists, dietitians, environmental research scientists and environmental health specialists.

The survey of 4,464 adults was conducted in January 2019 using Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel, a nationally repr

esentative panel of randomly selected U.S. adults.

The survey probed for people’s trust in scientists, along with potential sources of mistrust. To capture trust, the survey asked respondents how often they can count on scientists to perform their jobs with competence, to show care or concern for the public and to present their findings or recommendations in a fair and accurate way. The survey also asked for views about scientific integrity, including the extent to which misconduct is a problem, the degree to which scientists are open about potential conflicts of interest, and whether they accept accountability for mistakes.

Among other important findings:

  • Despite generally positive views about scientists across all six specialties, most Americans are skeptical about key areas of scientific integrity. No more than two-in-ten Americans believe scientists across these groups are transparent about potential conflicts of interest with industry all or most of the time. Similarly, minorities (ranging from 11% to 18%) say scientists regularly admit their mistakes and take responsibility for them. Between about a quarter and half of Americans consider misconduct a “very big” or “moderately big” problem, with the public generally skeptical that those engaged in misconduct routinely face serious consequences.
  • Americans tend to trust science practitioners, who directly provide treatments and recommendations to the public, more than researchers working in the same areas. For example, 47% say dietitians provide fair and accurate information about their recommendations all or most of the time, compared with 24% for nutrition scientists discussing their research. There is a similar gap when it comes to information from medical doctors and medical research scientists (48% and 32%, respectively, say they provide fair and accurate information all or most of the time). However, trust in environmental health specialists – practitioners who offer recommendations to organizations and community groups – is about the same as that for environmental research scientists.
  • When Americans gauge the kinds of things that would influence their faith in scientific findings, their verdict is clear: Open public access to data and independent committee reviews inspire the most confidence in scientists and boost their trust in research findings.
  • A majority of U.S. adults (54%, including equal shares of Democrats and Republicans) believe the public should play an important role in guiding policy decisions on scientific issues; 44% say public opinion should not play an important role because the issues are too complex for the average person to understand.
  • Public confidence in medical scientists is similar to that for scientists overall; 87% report either a great deal (35%) or a fair amount (52%) of confidence in medical scientists to act in the best interests of the public.
  • Americans with more factual science knowledge have greater confidence than those with less science knowledge that scientists act in the public interest. (For more information about the science knowledge index, see “What Americans Know About Science.”)
  • Black and Hispanic adults are more likely than whites to see professional or research misconduct as a very or moderately big problem. For doctors, for example, 71% of blacks and 63% of Hispanics say misconduct is at least a moderately big problem, compared with 43% of whites. A larger percentage of blacks (59%) and Hispanics (60%) than whites (42%) say misconduct by medical research scientists is a very big or moderately big problem.
1. Partisanship influences views on the role and value of scientific experts in policy debates

Six-in-ten in U.S. say scientists should take an active role in policy debatesA majority of U.S. adults support the participation of scientific experts in policy debates, but Democrats are more likely than Republicans to think scientists should be involved and are more likely to value their decisions. Partisan divisions also arise in beliefs about the value of the scientific method and the likelihood of bias in scientists’ judgments.

Overall, 60% of Americans say scientists should play an active role in policy debates about scientific issues, the Center’s new survey shows. A smaller share (39%) says scientists should “focus on establishing sound scientific facts and stay out of public policy debates.”

More Democrats than Republicans say scientific experts make better science-related policy decisions But there are dueling perspectives along party lines about the role and value of scientific experts in science-related policy debates, with most Democrats (73%, including leaners) saying scientists should take an active role. In contrast, a majority of Republicans (56%, including leaners) say scientists should focus on their research and stay out of policy debates, while a smaller percentage (43%) say scientists should play an active role in such debates.

Democrats also are more inclined than Republicans to value the opinions of scientific experts in policy matters. Some 54% of Democrats think scientific experts are usually better at making decisions about scientific issues than other people. In contrast, 34% of Republicans say the same.

How much people know about science can also impact their perspectives on these topics, but the findings show the influence of people’s science knowledge on their views depends on their partisan lens. For example, 84% of Democrats with high science knowledge say scientists should play an active role in science policy debates, compared with 58% of Democrats with low science knowledge. No such pattern exists among Republicans. Four-in-ten Republicans with high science knowledge (40%) – and 52% of those with low science knowledge – say scientists should play an active role in science policy debates. Past Pew Research Center surveys have found a similar pattern on a range of views related to climate and energy issues.

More Democrats than Republicans trust the objectivity of scientists and the scientific method

Roughly six-in-ten Americans trust the scientific methodMost Americans believe the processes of science – namely, the scientific method of observing and collecting empirical evidence – are fundamentally sound.

Overall, 63% of Americans say the scientific method generally produces accurate conclusions, while a smaller share (35%) says it can be manipulated to produce a desired conclusion.

Further, a majority of U.S. adults (55%) believe scientists’ judgments are “based solely on the facts,” as opposed to scientists being “just as likely to be biased” in their judgments as other people (44%).

On average, however, more Democrats than Republicans (including independents who identify with each party) are inclined to express confidence in both the scientific method and scientists’ conclusions.

More Democrats than Republicans say the scientific method produces accurate conclusionsSeven-in-ten Democrats (70%) say the scientific method generally produces accurate conclusions. Opinion among Republicans is more divided, with 55% saying the scientific method produces accurate conclusions and 44% saying the scientific method can be manipulated by researchers to produce desired results.

Republicans are more likely than Democrats to view scientists as susceptible to biasAbout six-in-ten Democrats (62%) say scientists make judgments based solely on the facts. By comparison, 44% of Republicans say scientists’ judgments are based on facts, while 55% say scientists’ opinions are just as likely to be biased as other people’s.

Science knowledge levels also influence people’s views on these issues, but the correlation depends on their partisanship.

Democrats with high science knowledge have more confidence in the scientific methodAmong Democrats, an overwhelming majority of those with high science knowledge (86%) think the scientific method generally produces accurate conclusions. In contrast, about half of Democrats with low science knowledge (52%) say the scientific method produces accurate conclusions. Differences are modest by comparison among Republicans with high, medium and low science knowledge levels.

Republicans with high science knowledge are particularly likely to see scientists as open to biasBut when it comes to questions of susceptibility to bias, 64% of Republicans with high science knowledge say scientists are just as likely to be biased as other people, while 42% of Republicans with low science knowledge agree. Democrats with low, medium and high science knowledge are all about equally likely (in the 34% to 39% range) to view scientists as susceptible to bias.

Thus, knowledge and information can influence beliefs about these matters, but it does so through the lens of partisanship, a tendency known as motivated reasoning.

Public trust in scientists is only sometimes correlated with political party

Despite political differences over the role and value of scientific experts, public support for and trust in scientists is not uniformly connected with politics, but rather differs depending on the field of scientific study. The Center’s survey looks at public trust in scientists specializing in the environment, medicine and nutrition. Democrats have more trust than Republicans in environmental scientists – whether researchers or environmental health specialists – to perform their jobs with competence, to show concern for the public interest and to present their findings or recommendations in a fair and accurate way. There are also some partisan differences in views of nutrition researchers, but there are no such differences when it comes to medical doctors, medical researchers or dietitians. For details, see “Partisan differences in overall views of and trust in scientists occur primarily for environmental scientists.

Prior Pew Research Center studies have shown wide political divides on public attitudes related to climate, energy and the environment but no differences or only modest ones when it comes to a host of other science-related issues, including beliefs about the safety of childhood vaccines and the health risks of eating genetically modified foods.

Trust and Mistrust in Americans’ Views of Scientific Experts

 

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Ari Fleischer: Democrat debates have been a display of losing ideas

CNN Democratic debate night 2

a sign on a table: It will be twice as hard for the 2020 Democrats to qualify for the next debate. In addition to the seven who already have, three are within striking distance.© Erin Schaff/The New York Times It will be twice as hard for the 2020 Democrats to qualify for the next debate. In addition to the seven who already have, three are within striking distance.The Democratic National Committee has set stricter criteria for the third set of debates, which will be held on Sept. 12 and Sept. 13 in Houston. If 10 or fewer candidates qualify, the debate will take place on only one night.

[The race is fluid, and other things we learned from the July Democratic debates.]

Candidates will need to have 130,000 unique donors and register at least 2 percent support in four polls. They have until Aug. 28 to reach those benchmarks.

 

These criteria could easily halve the field: The first two sets of debates included 20 of the 24 candidates, but a New York Times analysis of polls and donor numbers shows that only 10 to 12 candidates are likely to make the third round.

Seven candidates have already met both qualification thresholds and are guaranteed a spot on stage. They are:

Former Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr.

■ Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey

■ Mayor Pete Buttigieg of South Bend, Ind.

■ Senator Kamala Harris of California

■ Former Representative Beto O’Rourke of Texas

■ Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont

■ Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts

Three other candidates are very close: The former housing secretary Julián Castro and the entrepreneur Andrew Yang have surpassed 130,000 donations and each have three of the four qualifying polls they need, while Senator Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota has met the polling threshold and has about 120,000 donors.

Beyond them, only three candidates have even a single qualifying poll to their name: the impeachment activist Tom Steyer (2 polls), Representative Tulsi Gabbard of Hawaii (1) and former Gov. John Hickenlooper of Colorado (1).

We asked all three of their campaigns to provide donor numbers so we could assess where they stood. Ms. Gabbard had just under 114,000 donors as of Wednesday night. A spokesman for Mr. Steyer said he was “on track to collect the required number of donors to make the September debate stage” but did not give a number. Mr. Hickenlooper’s campaign did not respond, but Politico reported a month ago that he had only 13,000 donors.

The other 11 candidates in the race have no qualifying polls to their name, and they all went into this week’s debates seeking a viral moment that would attract new donors and lift them, even briefly, in the polls.

The qualification rules do not require enduring support. Even a small post-debate surge could push a 1 percent candidate up to 2 percent in the small handful of polls he or she needs.

But for those who have not qualified, the Aug. 28 deadline is an existential threat. Candidates like Senator Kirsten Gillibrand of New York or Gov. Jay Inslee of Washington could be washed out of the race if they don’t get momentum from this week’s debates. And if you’re wondering whether they’re anxious, the answer is yes.

Ms. Gabbard’s campaign calculated at one point that she needed a new donor every minute to reach 130,000 by the Aug. 28 deadline, so if you go to her website, a timer next to the donation button begins counting down 60 seconds. Then the text changes.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics/only-7-candidates-have-qualified-for-the-next-democratic-debate/ar-AAFbiYl

Story 2: President Trump Comments To Big Lie Media — Videos

Trump comments on US-China tensions, upcoming Ohio rally

 

Student 3: Federal Reserve As Expected Reduces Federal Funds Rate By 25 Basis Points to 2.00%-2.25% As Economic Growth Slows Down – -Videos

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell holds news conference on interest rates | USA TODAY

Federal Reserve Lowers Interest Rates

Federal Reserve lowers interest rates

The Federal Reserve cuts rates by a quarter point

What the Fed interest rate cut means for your wallet

Fed cuts interest rates for first time since financial crisis

Trump tariffs torpedo stock market

Donald Trump rages against the Federal Reserve as it cuts interests rates by 0.25% but signals it WON’T slash them more as he has demanded – in move which sends shares plunging

  • Key interest set by the Federal Reserve is cut by 0.25 per cent for the first time since 2008, the year of the financial crisis
  • The central bank moved the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent, from 2 1/5 to 2 3/4
  • Move is a departure from its previous policy and comes after Trump heaped pressure on its chairman Jerome Powell to reduce cost of borrowing
  • But reserve’s committee said in statement it was acting over fears of a worldwide slowdown

Donald Trump unleashed on the Federal Reserve Wednesday afternoon after it made its first interest rate cut in more than a decade saying it was not ‘much help’ after the bank’s chairman signaled the move was a one-off reduction.

Jerome Powell sent share prices plunging as he called the 0.25 per cent cut in the key interest rate a ‘mid-cycle adjustment’ and talked down the chances of more cuts following.

The Dow Jones fell by 400 points as Powell signaled at a press conference in Washington D.C. that the cut was a one-off.

The Dow  closed down 333 points and both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 lost 1% of their value.

Donald Trump unleashed on the Federal Reserve Wednesday afternoon after it made its first interest rate cut in more than a decade saying it was not ‘much help’ after the bank’s chairman signaled the move was a one-off reduction.

Jerome Powell sent share prices plunging as he called the 0.25 per cent cut in the key interest rate a ‘mid-cycle adjustment’ and talked down the chances of more cuts following.

The Dow Jones fell by 400 points as Powell signaled at a press conference in Washington D.C. that the cut was a one-off.

The Dow  closed down 333 points and both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 lost 1% of their value.

Donald Trump unleashed on the Federal Reserve Wednesday afternoon after it made its first interest rate cut in more than a decade saying it was not ‘much help’ after the bank’s chairman signaled the move was a one-off reduction.

Jerome Powell sent share prices plunging as he called the 0.25 per cent cut in the key interest rate a ‘mid-cycle adjustment’ and talked down the chances of more cuts following.

The Dow Jones fell by 400 points as Powell signaled at a press conference in Washington D.C. that the cut was a one-off.

The Dow  closed down 333 points and both the NASDAQ and S&P 500 lost 1% of their value.

Trump used the market fall to make his case that Powell and his board should have started an ‘agressive’ series of rate cuts.

‘What the Market wanted to hear from Jay Powell and the Federal Reserve was that this was the beginning of a lengthy and aggressive rate-cutting cycle which would keep pace with China, The European Union and other countries around the world.

‘As usual, Powell let us down, but at least he is ending quantitative tightening, which shouldn’t have started in the first place – no inflation. We are winning anyway, but I am certainly not getting much help from the Federal Reserve!’

Trump had gone all-in on a call for a 0.5 per cent reduction to stimulate the U.S. economy. ‘The Fed has made all of the wrong moves. A small rate cut is not enough, but we will win anyway!’ he had tweeted on Monday.

Explanation time: Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, outlined why it had cut interest rates - as the markets reacted in real time with a sell-off which reached as much as 400 points wiped off the Dow in the course of his press conference

Explanation time: Jerome Powell, the chairman of the Federal Reserve, outlined why it had cut interest rates – as the markets reacted in real time with a sell-off which reached as much as 400 points wiped off the Dow in the course of his press conference

How markets reacted: The Dow Jones closed 333 points down in a sign of concern that the rate cut was effectively a one-off - not the stimulus Trump has demanded

How markets reacted: The Dow Jones closed 333 points down in a sign of concern that the rate cut was effectively a one-off – not the stimulus Trump has demanded

President Donald Trump had all but demanded a rate-slashing, but predicted that the Fed wouldn't do 'enough' to stimulate the U.S. economy. He had heaped pressure on Jerome Powell, his own appointment as chairman, to cut the cost of borrowing.
President Donald Trump had all but demanded a rate-slashing, but predicted that the Fed wouldn't do 'enough' to stimulate the U.S. economy. He had heaped pressure on Jerome Powell, his own appointment as chairman, to cut the cost of borrowing.

President Donald Trump had all but demanded a rate-slashing, but predicted that the Fed wouldn’t do ‘enough’ to stimulate the U.S. economy. He had heaped pressure on Jerome Powell, his own appointment as chairman, to cut the cost of borrowing.

Powell and the reserve, however, defied him.

It voted that the new benchmark interest rate will fall between 2 per cent and 2.25 per cent. The Fed’s board had voted nine times since 2015 to increase it.

Eight of the Fed’s 10 board members voted to trim the short-term benchmark rate. The other two argued for leaving it as-is.

Powell, speaking in a news conference after the release of the Fed statement, characterized the rate cut as ‘a mid-cycle adjustment to policy,’ comments that do not imply sharp further cuts are on the way.

Among his messages at the press conference in Washington D.C. were that job growth was slowing and that trade tensions were bad for the economy’s outlook – but he repeatedly talked up the strength of the economy.

Explaining the cut, Powell cited global weakness and a desire to boost too-low inflation in explaining the central bank’s decision to lower borrowing costs for the first time since 2008 and move up plans to stop winnowing its massive bond holdings.

Financial markets had widely expected the Fed to reduce its key overnight lending rate by a quarter of a percentage point to a target range of 2.00% to 2.25%, but many traders expected a clearer confirmation of forthcoming rate cuts.

Instead Powell’s message was taken to mean that rates will stay where they are, prompting shares to fall.

And the value of the dollar up against other currencies, which will further anger Trump who had wanted it to fall to boost exports.

The rate cut means that consumers will find in the coming months that interest rates will fall for long-term fixed mortgages, auto loans and credit cards.

That can mean significant household savings, which Americans typically pour back into the U.S. economy through higher spending.

For those few who save their winnings in the periodic Fed lottery, however, interest rates for bank savings accounts will also likely fall.

Mortgage rates were already sliding downward before the Fed met, due to other economic factors.

Even with Wednesday’s cut, the Fed’s principal interest rate is the highest in years. But by historical standards it’s still low.

A policy statement appeared to leave the door open for the Fed to cut rates again in September as it ‘contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate.’

‘In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate,’ the U.S. central bank said.

But Powell’s lengthy press conference appeared to close the door on that.

Wednesday’s cut is seen as an early bid to prevent a downturn in the U.S. economy that forecasters say will result from Trump’s trade war with China.

Economic indicators: Interest rates remain at historically low levels, while unemployment is at the lowest point since Nixon was president.

Economic indicators: Interest rates remain at historically low levels, while unemployment is at the lowest point since Nixon was president.

Uncertainties in global markets have paralyzed some businesses, starting what could soon be a global slowdown.

The Fed’s statement said that the U.S. labor market ‘remains strong,’ and that the domestic economy is continuing to grow ‘at a moderate rate.’ Overall inflation is running below 2 per cent.

Trump griped on July 22 that the federal funds rate, which determines how much banks – and, by extension, consumers – pay to borrow money, continued to be too high.

‘With almost no inflation, our Country is needlessly being forced to pay a MUCH higher interest rate than other countries only because of a very misguided Federal Reserve,’ he wrote then in a tweet.

On Monday he added that the Fed had previously hiked rates ‘way too early and way too much.’

Trump believes that other countries are more adept at managing the money supplies that move in and out of their financial systems, and in keeping the interest rates that drive borrowing and bond trading flexible.

He has grown increasingly impatient with Fed chairman Jerome Powell, who he believes he can replace at will.

‘I have the right to demote him. I have the right to fire him,’ the president said last month, cautioning that he had ‘never suggested’ doing so.

Any move to oust Powell would likely touch off a legal fight with major repercussions in financial markets as greater uncertainties spook traders.

U.S. economic data continues to be mixed, despite Trump’s frequent claims that he presides over a miraculous resurgence.

The unemployment rate is nearing a low point not seen in America since Richard Nixon was president and stock markets have hit repeated new records

But the nation’s manufacturing economy, which Trump promised to revitalize, has stalled in the past two quarters, and the growth of America’s economy is growing at 2.1 per cent per year – slower than the president has predicted.

The move is seen as an early bid to prevent a downturn in the U.S. economy that forecasters say will result from Trump’s trade war with China.

Uncertainties in global markets have paralyzed some businesses, starting what could soon be a global slowdown.

The Fed’s statement said that the U.S. labor market ‘remains strong,’ and that the domestic economy is continuing to grow ‘at a moderate rate.’ Overall inflation is running below 2 per cent.

Trump griped on July 22 that the federal funds rate, which determines how much banks – and, by extension, consumers – pay to borrow money, continued to be too high.

‘With almost no inflation, our Country is needlessly being forced to pay a MUCH higher interest rate than other countries only because of a very misguided Federal Reserve,’ he wrote then in a tweet.

On Monday he added that the Fed had previously hiked rates ‘way too early and way too much.’

Trump believes that other countries are more adept at managing the money supplies that move in and out of their financial systems, and in keeping the interest rates that drive borrowing and bond trading flexible.

He has grown increasingly impatient with Fed chairman Powell, who he believes he can replace at will.

‘I have the right to demote him. I have the right to fire him,’ the president said last month, cautioning that he had ‘never suggested’ doing so.

Any move to oust Powell would likely touch off a legal fight with major repercussions in financial markets as greater uncertainties spook traders.

WHY WE CUT INTEREST RATES FOR FIRST TIME IN A DECADE: WHAT THE FED SAID IN FULL TO EXPLAIN ITS MOVE

Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in June indicates that the labor market remains strong and that economic activity has been rising at a moderate rate. 

Job gains have been solid, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. 

Although growth of household spending has picked up from earlier in the year, growth of business fixed investment has been soft. 

On a 12-month basis, overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy are running below 2 percent. 

Market-based measures of inflation compensation remain low; survey-based measures of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed.

Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. 

In light of the implications of global developments for the economic outlook as well as muted inflation pressures, the Committee decided to lower the target range for the federal funds rate to 2 to 2-1/4 percent. 

This action supports the Committee’s view that sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee’s symmetric 2 percent objective are the most likely outcomes, but uncertainties about this outlook remain. 

As the Committee contemplates the future path of the target range for the federal funds rate, it will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and will act as appropriate to sustain the expansion, with a strong labor market and inflation near its symmetric 2 percent objective.

In determining the timing and size of future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will assess realized and expected economic conditions relative to its maximum employment objective and its symmetric 2 percent inflation objective. 

This assessment will take into account a wide range of information, including measures of labor market conditions, indicators of inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and readings on financial and international developments.

The Committee will conclude the reduction of its aggregate securities holdings in the System Open Market Account in August, two months earlier than previously indicated.

Voting for the monetary policy action were Jerome H. Powell, Chair; John C. Williams, Vice Chair; Michelle W. Bowman; Lael Brainard; James Bullard; Richard H. Clarida; Charles L. Evans; and Randal K. Quarles. 

Voting against the action were Esther L. George and Eric S. Rosengren, who preferred at this meeting to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent.

Federal Open Market Committee

About the FOMC

Recent FOMC press conference

July 31, 2019

FOMC Press Conference July 31, 2019

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FOMC Transcripts and other historical materials

The term “monetary policy” refers to the actions undertaken by a central bank, such as the Federal Reserve, to influence the availability and cost of money and credit to help promote national economic goals. The Federal Reserve Act of 1913 gave the Federal Reserve responsibility for setting monetary policy.

The Federal Reserve controls the three tools of monetary policy–open market operationsthe discount rate, and reserve requirements. The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is responsible for the discount rate and reserve requirements, and the Federal Open Market Committee is responsible for open market operations. Using the three tools, the Federal Reserve influences the demand for, and supply of, balances that depository institutions hold at Federal Reserve Banks and in this way alters the federal funds rate. The federal funds rate is the interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

Changes in the federal funds rate trigger a chain of events that affect other short-term interest rates, foreign exchange rates, long-term interest rates, the amount of money and credit, and, ultimately, a range of economic variables, including employment, output, and prices of goods and services.

Structure of the FOMC

The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) consists of twelve members–the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System; the president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York; and four of the remaining eleven Reserve Bank presidents, who serve one-year terms on a rotating basis. The rotating seats are filled from the following four groups of Banks, one Bank president from each group: Boston, Philadelphia, and Richmond; Cleveland and Chicago; Atlanta, St. Louis, and Dallas; and Minneapolis, Kansas City, and San Francisco. Nonvoting Reserve Bank presidents attend the meetings of the Committee, participate in the discussions, and contribute to the Committee’s assessment of the economy and policy options.

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings per year. At these meetings, the Committee reviews economic and financial conditions, determines the appropriate stance of monetary policy, and assesses the risks to its long-run goals of price stability and sustainable economic growth.

For more detail on the FOMC and monetary policy, see section 2 of the brochure on the structure of the Federal Reserve Systemand chapter 2 of Purposes & Functions of the Federal Reserve System. FOMC Rules and Authorizations are also available online.

2019 Committee Members

Alternate Members

Federal Reserve Bank Rotation on the FOMC

Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the year.

2020 2021 2022
Members New York
Cleveland
Philadelphia
Dallas
Minneapolis
New York
Chicago
Richmond
Atlanta
San Francisco
New York
Cleveland
Boston
St. Louis
Kansas City
Alternate
Members
New York
Chicago
Richmond
Atlanta
San Francisco
New York
Cleveland
Boston
St. Louis
Kansas City
New York
Chicago
Philadelphia
Dallas
Minneapolis

 †For the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, the First Vice President is the alternate for the President. Return to table

For additional information, please use the FOMC FOIA request form.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomc.htm

Federal Open Market Committee

Meeting calendars, statements, and minutes (2014-2019)

The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of the year.

FOIA
The FOMC makes an annual report pursuant to the Freedom of Information Act. The FOMC FOIA Service Center provides information about the status of FOIA requests and the FOIA process.

2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 | 2014
Next year: 2020

2019 FOMC Meetings

March
19-20*
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released April 10, 2019)
April/May
30-1
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released May 22, 2019)
June
18-19*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released July 10, 2019)
July
30-31
September
17-18*
October
29-30
December
10-11*

2018 FOMC Meetings

January
30-31
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released February 21, 2018)
March
20-21*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released April 11, 2018)
May
1-2
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released May 23, 2018)
June
12-13*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released July 05, 2018)
Jul/Aug
31-1
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released August 22, 2018)
September
25-26*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released October 17, 2018)
November
7-8
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released November 29, 2018)
December
18-19*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released January 09, 2019)

2017 FOMC Meetings

Jan/Feb
31-1
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released February 22, 2017)
March
14-15*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released April 05, 2017)
May
2-3
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released May 24, 2017)
June
13-14*
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released July 05, 2017)
July
25-26
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released August 16, 2017)
September
19-20*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released October 11, 2017)
Oct/Nov
31-1
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released November 22, 2017)
December
12-13*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released January 03, 2018)

2016 FOMC Meetings

January
26-27
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released February 17, 2016)
March
15-16*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released April 06, 2016)
April
26-27
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released May 18, 2016)
June
14-15*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released July 06, 2016)
July
26-27
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released August 17, 2016)
September
20-21*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released October 12, 2016)
November
1-2
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released November 23, 2016)
December
13-14*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released January 04, 2017)

2015 FOMC Meetings

January
27-28
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released February 18, 2015)
March
17-18*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released April 08, 2015)
April
28-29
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released May 20, 2015)
June
16-17*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released July 08, 2015)
July
28-29
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released August 19, 2015)
September
16-17*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released October 08, 2015)
October
27-28
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released November 18, 2015)
December
15-16*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released January 06, 2016)

2014 FOMC Meetings

January
28-29
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released February 19, 2014)
March
4 (unscheduled)

Minutes: See end of minutes of March 18-19 meeting

March
18-19*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released April 09, 2014)
April
29-30
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released May 21, 2014)
June
17-18*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released July 09, 2014)
July
29-30
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released August 20, 2014)
September
16-17*
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released October 08, 2014)
October
28-29
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released November 19, 2014)
December
16-17*
Press Conference
Projection Materials
PDF | HTML
Minutes:
PDF | HTML
(Released January 07, 2015)

2020 FOMC Meetings

January
28-29
March
17-18*
April
28-29
June
9-10*
July
28-29
September
15-16*
November
4-5
December
15-16*

Note: A two-day meeting is scheduled for January 26-27, 2021. Each meeting date is tentative until confirmed at the meeting immediately preceding it.

https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm

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The Pronk Pops Show 1292, July 18, 2019, Part 2 of 2 — Story 1: Google, YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, Big Tech Censorship of Conservative Content — Dennis Praeger Testifies Before U.S. Senate Committee — Videos — Story 2: House of Representatives Bipartisan Vote of 332 to 94 Not To Impeach President Trump — Videos –Story 3: President Trump Rally in North Carolina — New Politically Correct Chant — Send Them All Home — Open Border or Citizenship for Illegal Alien Democrats, Republicans and All Illegal Aliens — All 30 to 60 Million Illegal Aliens In The United States — Videos

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