Story 1: Advanced Estimate: U.S. Economy Grew Based On Incomplete Data at 4% Rate in Second Quarter of 2014 — Wait To End of September For Final Estimate — Expect 2% or Less Growth Rate — Videos
Mark Zandi Discusses U.S. Second-Quarter GDP, Economy: Video
United States economy grows by 4%
US Dollar: 2Q US GDP Data May Outshine FOMC in Driving Volatility
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Dr. Paul Craig Roberts: Fed Laundering Treasury Bonds in Belgium, Real GDP was Negative & More
Still Report #245 – U.S. GDP is a Lie
Published on May 2, 2014
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U.S. economic growth accelerated more than expected in the second quarter and the decline in output in the prior period was less steep than previously reported, bolstering views for a stronger performance in the last six months of the year.
Gross domestic product expanded at a 4.0 percent annual rate as activity picked up broadly after shrinking at a revised 2.1 percent pace in the first quarter, the Commerce Department said on Wednesday.
That pushed GDP above the economy’s potential growth trend, which analysts put somewhere between a 2 percent and 2.5 percent pace. Economists had forecast the economy growing at a 3.0 percent rate in the second quarter after a previously reported 2.9 percent contraction.
A separate report showing private employers added 218,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, a decline from June’s hefty gain of 281,000, did little to change perceptions the economy was strengthening.
U.S. stock futures added to gains and yields on U.S. Treasuries rose after the data. The U.S. dollar hit a seven-week high against the yen and an eight-month high against the euro.
The economy grew 0.9 percent in the first half of this year and growth for 2014 as a whole could average above 2 percent. The first quarter contraction, which was mostly weather-related, was the largest in five years.
Employment growth, which has exceeded 200,000 jobs in each of the last five months, and strong readings on the factory and services sectors from the Institute for Supply Management underpin the bullish expectations for the rest of the year.
The government also published revisions to prior GDP data going back to 1999, which showed the economy performing much stronger in the second half of 2013 and for that year as a whole than previously reported.
EYES ON THE FED
The GDP data, which was released only hours before Federal Reserve officials conclude a two-day policy meeting, could fuel debate on whether the central bank may need to raise interest rates a bit sooner than had been anticipated.
Growth in the second quarter was driven mainly by consumer spending and a swing in business inventories.
Consumer spending growth, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, accelerated at a 2.5 percent pace, as Americans bought long-lasting manufactured goods and spent a bit more on services.
Consumer spending had braked to a 1.2 percent pace in the first quarter because of weak healthcare spending.
Despite the pick-up in consumer spending, Americans saved more in the second quarter. The saving rate increased to 5.3 percent from 4.9 percent in the first quarter as incomes rose, which bodes well for future spending.
Inventories contributed 1.66 percentage points to GDP growth after chopping off 1.16 points in the first quarter.
The economy also received a boost from business investment, government spending and investment in home building.
Trade, however, was a drag for a second consecutive quarter as some of the increase in domestic demand was met by a surge in imports. Domestic demand rose at a 2.8 percent pace, the fastest since the third quarter of 2011. It increased at a 0.7 percent pace in the first quarter.
Solid demand, which underscores the economy’s firming fundamentals, led to some pick-up in price pressures in the second quarter, a welcome development for Fed officials who have long worried about inflation being too low.
A price index in the report rose at a 2.3 percent rate in the second quarter, the quickest in three years, after advancing at a 1.4 percent pace in the prior period.
A core price measure that strips out food and energy costs increased at a 2.0 percent pace, the fastest since the first quarter of 2012. It had increased at a 1.2 percent rate in the first quarter.
U.S. Second-Quarter GDP Expands at 4.0% Rate
Economy Grew at Best Six-Month Stretch in 10 Years in Second Half of 2013
ByERIC MORATH And NICK TIMIRAOS
he U.S. economy surged in the second quarter, more than offsetting a first-quarter contraction and putting growth back on an upward trajectory in 2014.
The U.S. economy rebounded strongly this spring after a first-quarter contraction, eking out positive growth over the past six months and raising hopes for sustained growth in the second half of 2014. Josh Zumbrun joins MoneyBeat with Paul Vigna.
Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of goods and services produced across the economy, advanced at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.0% in the second quarter, the Commerce Department said Wednesday. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had forecast growth at a 3.0% pace for the quarter.
An upturn in inventory building by businesses and an acceleration in consumer spending led the broad gains and offset a larger drag from increased imports.
The solid improvement comes on the heels of a first quarter when the economy shrank at a 2.1% pace. While still the worst quarter of the recovery that began in mid-2009, the first-quarter figure reflects an upward revision from a previously estimated 2.9% contraction.
Over the past year, the economy grew 2.4%—slightly ahead of the 2.3% average annual gain from recovery’s start until the end of 2013, before an unusually cold winter socked the economy.
The first quarter “was an anomaly and growth will be much stronger through the rest of this year,” said PNC Financial Services Group economist Stuart Hoffman. “Consumers are spending thanks to job and income gains, and with borrowing costs still low businesses are investing to meet stronger demand.”
Household spending—roughly two-thirds of the economy—advanced at a 2.5% rate last quarter. That’s an increase from the first quarter’s modest 1.2% gain. Spending on total goods accounted for its highest contribution to GDP since late 2010, and spending on long-lasting durable goods was near a five-year high, led by a big jump in auto sales.
Annual revisions, also released Wednesday, showed the economy expanded at a 4% pace in the second half of 2013, the best six-month stretch in 10 years. But figures over the past five years, including new revisions back to 2011, continue to tell a familiar tale. Unable to string together several quarters of steady growth, the recovery that began in 2009 is still the weakest since World War II.
There is reason to be guarded about last quarter’s rebound. The initial reading on GDP relies on estimates of trade flows, health-care spending and other aspects of the economy and could be significantly revised in subsequent takes.
The U.S. second-quarter GDP increased at a 4% rate, well above expectations, raising hopes for sustained growth in the second half of 2014. WSJ’s Polya Lesova joins Simon Constable on the News Hub with the details. Photo: Getty
The strong advance in consumption is at least partially payback for a cold winter to start the year. If weather gets the blame for a bad first quarter, it deserves some credit for the second.
The second quarter was also strongly aided by businesses restocking. The change in private inventories added 1.66 percentage points to growth during the quarter. The gain mirrors the strong buildup in inventories that helped propel growth in the second half of last year, and stands in contrast to the reversal that contributed to the first-quarter contraction.
Some economists said the inventory boost raised questions over whether the strong pace of growth in the second-quarter gain was sustainable. Real final sales, a measurement of GDP that excludes changes to inventories, expanded at a 2.3% pace in the second quarter. After accounting for the 1% contraction in the first quarter, sales rose by almost 0.7% in the first half of 2014. That suggests the inventory gain may have been “excessive,” said Chris Low, chief economist at FTN Financial, “as if business put a little too much faith in the bounce-back-from-bad-weather story.”
The report showed the personal consumption expenditure price index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, advanced at an annualized 2.3% in the second quarter.
The reading, reflecting increased costs for food and gasoline, was above the Fed’s 2% inflation target during a quarter for the first time since early 2012. But from a year ago, consumer inflation is up a milder 1.6%.
On GDP, a Word of Caution on the RevisionsThere’s a reasonable chance the 4% 2Q GDP number will change. Consider what has happened to 1Q13. Growth was initially reported to be occurring at an annual rate of 2.5%, before being revised down to 1.8% and then 1.1%. Wednesday’s latest set of revisions brought that figure back to 2.7%. (firstname.lastname@example.org)
GDP Catches Up with Jobs Growth A strong rebound in 2Q economic growth resolves the discrepancy between recent weak GDP readings and strong job numbers, BNP Paribas economists write, adding the rebound bodes well for July jobs data out Friday. “We will get another solid payrolls print of around 225,000 on Friday,” the firm says. Still, BNP Paribas notes that an average growth rate of 1% in 1H shows the economy is far from achieving the 2.1% to 2.3% growth rate forecast by the Fed for this year. (email@example.com)
Market Talk is a stream of real-time news and market analysis that’s available on Dow Jones Newswires
Wednesday’s report also showed business spending on items such as equipment, buildings and intellectual property rose at a 5.5% pace from April to June. Spending on equipment increased at a 7% rate in the second quarter after declining in the first.
Residential fixed investment—spending on home building and improvements—increased at a 7.5% rate in the second quarter. The category had declined the prior two quarters. The decline that began last fall wasn’t actually due to a slowdown in home construction, but instead reflected a drop in brokers’ real-estate commissions after sales of previously owned homes slumped.
Trade was a drag on economic growth during the quarter despite a solid 9.5% increase in U.S. exports. That is because imports, which subtract from economic growth, rose 11.7%. Still, the number suggests renewed demand for foreign goods among U.S. consumers.
The government added to second-quarter growth. Government expenditures and investment rose at an 1.6% pace in the spring. Federal outlays fell for the seventh straight quarter but were more than offset by increased spending at the state and local level.
Table 1.1.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product
[Percent] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates
Last Revised on: July 30, 2014 – Next Release Date August 28, 2014
Gross domestic product
Personal consumption expenditures
Gross private domestic investment
Intellectual property products
Change in private inventories
Net exports of goods and services
Government consumption expenditures and gross investment
The United States economy rebounded heartily in the spring after a dismal winter, the Commerce Department reported on Wednesday, growing at an annual rate of 4 percent from April through June and surpassing economists’ expecations.
In its initial estimate for the second quarter, the government cited a major advance in inventories for private businesses, higher government spending at the state and local level and personal consumption spending as chief contributors to growth. Economists, who had been hoping for a full reversal of the first quarter’s decline, were cheered by the second quarter’s numbers. The consensus forecast for G.D.P. was 3 percent.
“We made up some of the ground lost in the first three months of this year, but there’s nothing in today’s data to indicate that the economy is growing more strongly than it has for the past couple of years,” the Economic Policy Institute, a left-leaning nonprofit group focused on low- and middle-income workers, said in a release Wednesday.
More important economic data will be released this week. Besides the Labor Department’s latest figures on unemployment and payrolls to be announced Friday, the Federal Reserve’s policy-making committee continues meeting on Wednesday, with the central bank announcing its latest plans on Wednesday afternoon.
A lot of inventory building, some complained. But most felt the numbers didn’t change their outlook for the second half dramatically. Barclays is a good example: “We do not view the outperformance in this report as a signal that the outlook for growth has improved,” they said.
Second: There’s the inflation-fearing camp. Modest growth or not, many fear that interest rates could move dramatically on any sign the economy is putting together a consistent series of above-expectation economic stats.
Treasury yields are up this morning, and many are wondering if the Fed will make some comment about the possibility of a rate increase sooner than expectations (mid-to-late- 2015).
I’m not in that camp, but some are: Interest-rate sensitive stocks like Utilities, Telecom, Housing are all underperforming the market.
Third: There are continuing issues with the Ukraine. Reuters is reporting comments from NATO that the number of troops continue to increase along the Russian-Ukraine border.
Finally: Let’s drag out the “market is tired” argument and that it is long due for a 10 percent correction. Alan Greenspan, on a competing network this morning, said stocks were due for a “significant correction” at some point. Really, Mr. Greenspan? The market IS tired, but we have been hearing about a 10 percent correction for two years. Those that got out then, when the S&P was at 1400, are now watching stocks up 40 percent since then.
My take? Things are continuing to get better, but they are getting better at a very slow rate. And the data is still choppy. And that is good for the markets.
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2014 (Advance Estimate)
Annual Revision: 1999 through First Quarter 2014
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 4.0 percent in the second quarter of 2014,
according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter,
real GDP decreased 2.1 percent (revised).The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3
and "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 10). The "second" estimate for the second quarter,
based on more complete data, will be released on August 28, 2014.
The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, nonresidential fixed
investment, state and local government spending, and residential fixed investment. Imports, which are a
subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased.
Annual Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
The estimates released today reflect the results of the annual revision of the national income and
product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with the "advance" estimate of GDP for the second quarter of
2014. In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and the first quarter of
2014, GDP and select components were revised back to the first quarter of 1999 (see the Technical
Note). More information is available in "Preview of Upcoming NIPA Revision" in the May Survey of
Current Business and on BEA's Web site. The August Survey will contain an article describing the annual
revision in detail.
FOOTNOTE. Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. "Real" estimates are in chained (2009)
dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures.
This news release is available on BEA's Web site along with the Technical Note
and Highlights related to this release.
Real GDP increased 4.0 percent in the second quarter, after decreasing 2.1 percent in the first.
This upturn in the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upturns in private inventory
investment and in exports, an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in state and local government spending, an
acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment, and an upturn in residential fixed investment that were
partly offset by an acceleration in imports.
The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.9 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the first.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent,
compared with an increase of 1.3 percent.
Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.5 percent in the second quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.2 percent in the first. Durable goods increased 14.0 percent, compared with an
increase of 3.2 percent. Nondurable goods increased 2.5 percent; it was unchanged in the first quarter.
Services increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 1.3 percent in the
Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 5.5 percent in the second quarter, compared with
an increase of 1.6 percent in the first. Investment in nonresidential structures increased 5.3 percent,
compared with an increase of 2.9 percent. Investment in equipment increased 7.0 percent, in contrast to
a decrease of 1.0 percent. Investment in intellectual property products increased 3.5 percent, compared
with an increase of 4.6 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 7.5 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 5.3 percent.
Real exports of goods and services increased 9.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 9.2 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 11.7 percent,
compared with an increase of 2.2 percent.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 0.8 percent
in the second quarter, compared with a decrease of 0.1 percent in the first. National defense increased
1.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 4.0 percent. Nondefense decreased 3.7 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 6.6 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment increased 3.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 1.3 percent.
The change in real private inventories added 1.66 percentage points to the second-quarter change
in real GDP after subtracting 1.16 percentage points from the first-quarter change. Private businesses
increased inventories $93.4 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $35.2 billion in the first
quarter and $81.8 billion in the fourth quarter of 2013.
Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.3
percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 1.0 percent in the first.
Gross domestic purchases
Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 4.5 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.4 percent in the
Disposition of personal income
Current-dollar personal income increased $208.0 billion in the second quarter, compared with an
increase of $176.6 billion in the first. The acceleration in personal income primarily reflected an upturn
in personal dividend income and a smaller decrease in farm proprietors' income that were partly offset
by a deceleration in wages and salaries.
Personal current taxes increased $15.2 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase
of $24.4 billion in the first.
Disposable personal income increased $192.7 billion, or 6.2 percent, in the second quarter,
compared with an increase of $152.1 billion, or 4.9 percent, in the first. Real disposable personal
income increased 3.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 3.5 percent in the first.
Personal outlays increased $138.8 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of
$76.1 billion in the first.
Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $682.9 billion in the
second quarter, compared with $629.0 billion in the first.
The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was
5.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the first. For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA's national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board's financial accounts of the United States and data on changes in net worth, go to
Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
6.0 percent, or $250.7 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $17,294.7 billion. In the first quarter,
current-dollar GDP decreased 0.8 percent, or $34.3 billion.
Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site. Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site. In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy." For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
Revisions for the first quarter of 2014
For the first quarter of 2014, real GDP is now estimated to have declined 2.1 percent; in the
previously published estimates, first-quarter GDP was estimated to have declined 2.9 percent. The 0.8-
percentage point upward revision to the percent change in first-quarter real GDP primarily reflected
upward revisions to private inventory investment, to nonresidential fixed investment, and to PCE.
Previous Estimate Revised
Real GDP............................... -2.9 -2.1
Current-dollar GDP..................... -1.7 -0.8
Real GDI............................... -2.6 -0.7
Gross domestic purchases price index... 1.3 1.4
Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts
The revised estimates reflect the results of the annual revision of the national income and product
accounts (NIPAs). In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and the
first quarter of 2014, this "flexible" annual revision results in revisions to current-dollar GDP beginning
with the first quarter of 1999. The reference year remains 2009. When the estimates for the reference
year (2009) are revised, the levels of the related index numbers and chained-dollar estimates are also
revised for the entire historical period; revisions to percent changes before the first quarter of 1999 are
small and mostly due to rounding.
Because of the additional data shown, tables 3, 11, and 12 of this release are each divided into
two separate tables -- 3A and 3B, 11A and 11B, and 12A and 12B. There are also a number of special
tables that compare the revised and previously published statistics for select periods:
* Table 1A shows the percent change in real GDP and related measures; table 1B shows revisions
to current-dollar GDP, to national income, and to personal income; table 2A shows contributions
to the percent change in real GDP; and table 4A shows the percent change in the chain-type price
indexes for GDP and related measures.
* Tables 7A and 7B show annual levels, percent changes, and revisions to percent changes for
current-dollar GDP and for real (chained-dollar) GDP, respectively.
* Table 12C shows revisions to corporate profits by industry.
With the release of the annual revision, statistics for select NIPA tables will be available on
BEA's Web site (www.bea.gov). Shortly after the GDP release, BEA will post a table on its Web site
showing the major current-dollar revisions and their sources for each component of GDP, national
income, and personal income. Additionally, the August 2014 Survey of Current Business will contain an
article describing these revisions. That issue will also contain an analysis of the current quarterly
estimate of GDP and related series ("GDP and the Economy").
Revisions to real GDP
For this annual revision, the most notable revisions are generally limited to the period from 2011
through the first quarter of 2014 and largely reflect the incorporation of newly available and revised
source data for the underlying components (see the box below). The revisions for earlier periods are
* For 2011–2013, real GDP increased at an average annual rate of 2.0 percent; in the previously
published estimates, real GDP had increased at an average annual rate of 2.2 percent. From the
fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2014, real GDP increased at an average annual rate
of 1.8 percent, the same rate as in the previously published estimates.
* The percent change in real GDP was revised down 0.2 percentage point for 2011, was revised
down 0.5 percentage point for 2012, and was revised up 0.3 percentage point for 2013.
o For 2011, the largest contributors to the downward revision to the percent change in real
GDP were a downward revision to personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and an
upward revision to imports.
o For 2012, the largest contributors to the downward revision were downward revisions to
PCE and to state and local government spending.
o For 2013, the largest contributors to the upward revision were upward revisions to PCE
and to state and local government spending; these revisions were partly offset by a
downward revision to private inventory investment.
* The revisions to the annual estimates for 2012 and 2013 reflect partly offsetting revisions to the
quarters within the year. For 2012, the annual rate of change in GDP was revised down 1.4
percentage points for the first quarter and was revised down 0.3 percentage point for the third
quarter, while the growth rate for the second quarter was revised up 0.4 percentage point; the
growth rate for the fourth quarter was unrevised. The upward revision to the percent change in
real GDP for 2013 reflects upward revisions to the first, third, and fourth quarters that were
partly offset by a downward revision to the second quarter.
* For the first quarter of 2011 through the first quarter of 2014, the average revision (without
regard to sign) to the percent change in real GDP was 0.6 percentage point. The revisions did
not change the direction of the change in real GDP (increase or decrease) for any of the quarters.
* For the expansion from the second quarter of 2009 to the first quarter of 2014, real GDP
increased at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent, the same rate as in the previously published
* Current-dollar GDP was revised down for all 3 years: $15.9 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 2011;
$81.4 billion, or 0.5 percent, for 2012; and $31.6 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2013.
Revisions to price measures
* Gross domestic purchases -- From the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2014, the
average annual rate of increase in the price index for gross domestic purchases was revised up
from 1.6 percent to 1.7 percent.
* Personal consumption expenditures -- From the fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of
2014, the average annual rate of increase in the price index for PCE was 1.7 percent, the same
rate as in the previously published estimates; the increase in the "core" PCE price index (which
excludes food and energy) was revised up from 1.5 percent to 1.6 percent.
Revisions to income and saving measures
* National income was revised down $43.4 billion, or 0.3 percent, for 2011, was revised up $97.9
billion, or 0.7 percent, for 2012, and was revised up $34.7 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2013.
o For 2011, downward revisions to corporate profits and to nonfarm proprietors' income
were partly offset by an upward revision to net interest.
o For 2012, upward revisions to net interest, to nonfarm proprietors' income, and to
corporate profits were partly offset by a downward revision to supplements to wages and
o For 2013, upward revisions to nonfarm proprietors' income and to net interest were partly
offset by downward revisions to farm proprietors' income and to wages and salaries.
* Corporate profits was revised down $61.1 billion, or 3.3 percent, for 2011, was revised up $13.3
billion, or 0.7 percent, for 2012, and was revised up $4.8 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2013.
* Personal income was revised up $10.7 billion, or 0.1 percent, for 2011, was revised up $143.9
billion, or 1.0 percent, for 2012, and was revised up $32.2 billion, or 0.2 percent, for 2013.
* For 2011–2013, the average annual rate of growth of real disposable personal income was
revised up 0.1 percentage point from 1.7 percent to 1.8 percent.
* The personal saving rate (personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income) was
revised up from 5.7 percent to 6.0 percent for 2011, was revised up from 5.6 percent to 7.2
percent for 2012, and was revised up from 4.5 percent to 4.9 percent for 2013.
Gross domestic income (GDI) and the statistical discrepancy
* For 2011–2013, real GDI increased at an average annual rate of 2.6 percent; in the previously
published estimates, real GDI had increased at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent. From the
fourth quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2014, real GDI increased at an average annual rate of
2.2 percent; in the previously published estimates, real GDI had increased at an average annual
rate of 2.1 percent.
* The statistical discrepancy is current-dollar GDP less current-dollar GDI. GDP measures final
expenditures -- the sum of consumer spending, private investment, net exports, and government
spending. GDI measures the incomes earned in the production of GDP. In concept, GDP is
equal to GDI. In practice, they differ because they are estimated using different source data and
* As a result of the annual revision, the statistical discrepancy as a percentage of GDP was revised
up from -0.3 percent to -0.2 percent for 2011, was revised down from -0.1 percent to -1.3 percent
for 2012, and was revised down from -0.8 percent to -1.3 percent for 2013.
New and revised source data
This annual revision incorporated data from the following major federal statistical sources:
Source Data Agency Data Years Covered by Data and
Vintage of Data
Census Bureau Annual surveys of merchant wholesale trade 2011 (revised)
Annual surveys of retail trade 2012 (new)
Monthly indicators of manufactures, merchant wholesale
trade, and retail trade 2011–2013 (revised)
Service annual survey 2011 and 2012 (revised)
Annual surveys of state and local government finances Fiscal year (FY) 2011 (revised)
FY 2012 (new)
Monthly survey of construction spending (value put in
place) 2011–2013 (revised)
Quarterly services survey 2011–2013 (revised)
Current population survey/housing vacancy survey 2011 and 2012 (revised)
Office of Management and
Budget Federal Budget FY 2013 and 2014 (revised)
Internal Revenue Service Tabulations of tax returns for corporations 2011 (revised) 2012 (new)
Tabulations of tax returns for sole proprietorships and
partnerships 2012 (new)
BLS Quarterly census of employment and wages 2011–2013 ( revised)
Survey of occupational employment 2012 (new)
Department of Agriculture Farm statistics 2011–2013 (revised)
BEA International transactions accounts 1999–2013 (revised)
Changes in methodology and presentation
The annual revision also incorporated improvements to estimating methodologies and to the
presentation of the NIPA estimates, including the following:
* Beginning with the estimates for 1999, the presentation of foreign transactions in the NIPAs is
changed to reflect the comprehensive restructuring of BEA's international transactions accounts
(ITAs), released in June. The new presentation of both goods and services in the foreign
transactions tables is consistent with the corresponding items in the ITAs. The definition of
exports and imports of travel is broadened to include travel for health and for education and
expenditures by short-term workers; these services had previously been included in the exports
and imports of "other" private services. The new presentation of foreign transactions enhances
the quality and the usefulness of BEA's international accounts statistics and brings them into
closer alignment with new international statistical guidelines.
* The presentation of the pension sector is expanded to include a table of transactions of defined
contribution pension plans and a table that presents transactions of both defined benefit and
defined contribution pension plans. (Tables presenting the transactions associated with defined
benefit pension plans were introduced in last year's comprehensive revision.)
* * *
BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting
the site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.
* * *
Next release -- August 28, 2014 at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2014 (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2014 (Preliminary Estimate)
Comparisons of Revisions to GDP
Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule: the "advance" estimate, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, is released near the end of the
first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
the "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.
The "latest"” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.
Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried
out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data. Comprehensive (or benchmark)
revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as
improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.
The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar
and of real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates. From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one
month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the
advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point. From the advance estimate to
the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points. The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.3 percentage point, which is larger
than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates. The larger average
revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as
the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts. The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend
growth more than four-fifths of the time.
Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
Vintages Average Average without Standard deviation of
compared regard to sign revisions without
regard to sign
Advance to second.................... 0.2 0.5 0.4
Advance to third..................... .2 .7 .4
Second to third...................... .0 .3 .2
Advance to latest.................... .3 1.3 1.0
Advance to second.................... 0.1 0.5 0.4
Advance to third..................... .1 .6 .4
Second to third...................... .0 .2 .2
Advance to latest.................... .3 1.3 1.0
NOTE. These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2010.
Story 1: Putin and Obama are Hiding Something About Malaysian Airline MH 17 Crash and Surge of Illegal Aliens Across Mexican-U.S. Border — Both Putin and Obama Are Shifting Blame To Others — What Exactly Are They Trying To Hide? — Videos
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MH17 crash Pressure grows on Russia over crash inquiry
Don’t use MH17 crash for ‘political ends’, Putin says
Jul 21, 2014
Russian President Vladimir Putin says the Malaysia Airlines crash should not be used for “political ends” and that international experts must be given access to the crash site.
MH17 crash puts pressure on Putin
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Obama Seen Gaining on Putin as U.S. Prods EU on Sanctions
By Terry Atlas and Jonathan Allen
President Barack Obama’s response to the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17 over Ukraine reflects the consensus of U.S. officials that time, evidence, and world opinion are increasingly on his side as he takes on Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Secretary of State John Kerrycited the tragedy yesterday in an effort to prod Europeans into expanding sanctions against Russia, even at some peril to their own economies, in an effort to break Putin’s support for pro-Russian Ukrainian separatists.
“We are trying to encourage our European friends to realize this is a wake-up call,” Kerry said on “Fox News Sunday,” invoking a phrase used last week by Obama.
U.S. officials, some speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss administration strategy, said the shooting down of the civilian jetliner —- blamed by the U.S. on pro-Russian separatists armed by Russia —- should ignite anti-Putin sentiment and push reluctant EU countries to catch up to the more stringent sanctions the U.S. had imposed last week. Dutch and other European citizens were among the 298 passengers and crew that perished.
This gives Obama confidence that the U.S. and EU can prevail over Putin in the short-run — overcoming European reluctance to expand sanctions — just as the Obama administration believes it will prevail in the long-run over a Russia that has a battered economy and a leader who is overplaying a weak hand, the officials said.
Obama said today at the White House that the “burden is now on Russia’” to ensure separatists let international investigators recover remains and collect evidence at the crash site. A short time later, Malaysian Prime MinisterNajib Razak said rebels in eastern Ukraine agreed to hand over bodies of crash victims and grant access to the site.
While the timing for EU decisions isn’t set, two European diplomats said previously resistant members such as Italy now are shifting. The bloc’s foreign ministers are scheduled to meet tomorrow, and top leaders also may meet as early as this week, according to the diplomats, who asked that they not be identified because the plans haven’t been announced.
The U.S. and its allies have the capability to further squeeze Russia through punitive measures such as sanctions against entire sectors of its economy, though they want to leave open a course for Putin to back down, according to several officials,
The EU foreign ministers at their meeting in Brussels may consider blacklisting more Putin associates and, for the first time, Russian companies accused of profiting from Ukraine’s woes. Yet the Europeans may hesitate to ramp up a fight when they need Putin’s influence with the rebels to permit the recovery of passengers’ remains and an international investigation.
The U.K. is pushing for the EU to sanction the entire Russian defense industry, a British official said in London on condition of anonymity. France has repeatedly rebuffed calls to cancel its sale of two Mistral helicopter carriers to Russia. “With so many European Union citizens lost in the Malaysian Airlines crash, it is hard to see how the French Mistral deal can go ahead,” said Timothy Ash, head of emerging markets research at Standard Bank Plc in London.
The airline disaster follows months of U.S. efforts to persuade the Europeans to raise the costs on Putin for his efforts to destabilize Ukraine. Obama now is “absolutely prepared” to consider more sanctions, and the EU should do likewise, Kerry said on ABC’s “This Week with George Stephanopoulos.”
The top U.S. diplomat appeared on five U.S. Sunday morning talk shows to make the case for further action.
“Since sanctions are the administration’s default instrument of coercive statecraft, I would expect an escalation of U.S. sanctions pressure, specifically targeting more Russian financial institutions, energy companies and military firms,” said Mark Dubowitz, executive director of the Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a nonprofit group that focuses on national security issues.
“People are looking for sanctions that are severe enough to change Putin’s mind, but won’t do harm to the U.S. and European economies,” said Andrew Weiss, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, who specializes in Russia and Eurasia.
Putin has levers of influence too, including sending Russian forces into eastern Ukraine, as he did in Crimea; reducing natural gas supplies to Europe; and undermining international negotiations seeking to curtail Iran’s nuclear program, one of Obama’s top diplomatic priorities.
Some of the U.S. officials said they see Putin fighting a losing geopolitical battle over time as neighboring states such as Ukraine, once regarded as the breadbasket of the Soviet Union, shift toward western European economies. That also may make him unpredictable and dangerous, they said.
The long-term strategy, these officials said, is to further isolate Putin, who they say is presiding over the decline of a country facing economic, demographic and social problems. While it has an economy comparable in size to Italy’s, Russia’s per capita gross domestic product, at $14,612, is less than half of Italy’s $34,619, according to World Bank data for 2013.
“From the beginning, Russia’s aggression in Ukraine has been a reflection of its diminished stature and influence in Europe and the world,” said former White House Press Secretary Jay Carney, who worked for Vice President Joe Biden during the Russia reset and once worked in Time Magazine’s Moscow bureau.
The U.S. last week imposed targeted sanctions on selected Russian banks, military, and energy companies including OAO Rosneft, Russia’s largest oil company, after the EU was unable to agree on more than limited additional sanctions.
“The president imposed a greater cost on Vladimir Putin the day before this shoot-down took place,” Kerry said. “And what we are doing now is trying to bring our European counterparts along” because 4 percent of Russia’s trade is with the United States while “50 percent of their engagement is with Europe.”
The U.S. has been urging the EU to act more forcefully despite its reliance on Russia for about 30 percent of its gas imports. U.K Prime Minister David Cameron said he agreed with his French and German counterparts that Europe should be ready to impose further sanctions this week.
“There’s value, political and economic,” in waiting to see what the Europeans do because Obama wants to show a united front, said Robert Kahn, a former Treasury official who is now a senior fellow for international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations.
The U.S. could consider adding more companies to the list of those it has sanctioned, he said. “First and foremost you look to the financial sector,” he said. “That’s where our sanctions are most powerful because of our central role in the financial system.”
Some Republicans in Congress, such as Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, are pressing Obama to impose sectoral sanctions and begin providing weapons to Ukrainian government forces fighting the pro-Russian rebels.
The U.S. and European allies should impose “very severe economic sanctions” and also consider “symbolic” actions, such as canceling the 2018 World Cup in Russia and banning landing rights toOAO Aeroflot, Russia’s largest airline carrier, Representative Peter King, a New York Republican, said yesterday on CBS’s “Face the Nation” program.
Already, the existing sanctions are threatening to tip Russia into a recession as they exacerbate a bond sell-off and drive credit risk higher.
“While aggressive unilateral U.S. sanctions would impose a significant toll on Russia’s economy and U.S. business interests, the efficacy of further sanctions really turns on the resolve of the European Union,” Michael L. Burton, a sanctions lawyer at Jacobson Burton Pllc in Washington, said in an e-mail. “Member states of the EU must reconcile the tension between their sense of morality and their economic interests, recognizing that the EU ultimately will bear the highest costs and be judged most critically.”
Stephen Myrow, managing partner of Beacon Policy Advisors LLC, an independent research firm in Washington, said the U.S. is likely to increase sanctions only incrementally absent strong steps by the EU.
“The big picture here, though, is whether the increase in pressure — whether through sanctions, diplomacy or other means — prompts Moscow to begin to take meaningful measures to reduce tensions,” Howard Mendelsohn, managing director at the Camstoll Group in Washington and previously an acting assistant secretary at the Treasury’s Office of Intelligence and Analysis, said in an e-mail. “First and foremost that is what officials are looking to see.”
There’s no guarantee that more sanctions will push Putin in the right direction, said Samuel Charap, a fellow at the Washington branch of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based policy group.
“The moral and political case for more sanctions is clearly easier to make now,” Charap said. “The problem is that the theory of the case remains as questionable as before — that this kind of pressure will produce the kind of policy change from Moscow that the West is seeking. In fact, it might well have the opposite effect.”
In a phone call with Cameron, Putin said it’s “important” to refrain from “hasty conclusions and politicized statements” before international investigators determine the reasons for the Malaysian Air crash, according to an e-mailed statement from Russian government.
BREAKING-Obama: Handling of Malaysia Airlines Crash Site is ‘An Insult’
July 21 2014
BREAKING:Obama: Handling of Malaysia Airlines Crash Site is ‘An Insult’
Obama: ‘Burden Is on Russia’ to Push for Access to Jet Crash Site
Saying that pro-Russian separatists’ behavior “has no place in the community of nations,” President Barack Obama said on Monday that “the burden is on Russia” to push the separatists to allow unfettered access to the crash site of Malaysian Airlines Flight 17.
“We have to make sure that the truth is out and that accountability exists,” he said in remarks at the White House.
“Given its direct influence over the separatists, Russia — and President Putin in particular — has direct responsibility to compel them to cooperate with the investigation,” he added. “That is the least that they can do.”
The international community has ramped up pressure on Russian President Vladimir Putin to allow investigators access to the site and the bodies of the nearly 300 victims of last week’s Malaysian Airlines crash. Armed pro-Russian separatists who control the area have “repeatedly” prevented investigators from doing their work, Obama said.
“All of this begs the question: What exactly are they trying to hide?” the president asked.
In a brief statement Monday, Putin said that investigators must have access to the crash site but excoriated unnamed nations for exploiting the jet crash for “mercenary political goals.”
Pres Obama Continues to Point Fingers at Others for Ukraine Malaysian Airline [ MH-17]
July 18, 2014
President Obama addresses the media regarding the recent plane crash of Malaysian Air Flight MH-17 over the Ukraine.
President Obama Addresses Malaysian Plane Crash 7/17/2014
July 17, 2014
Obama says plane crash “looks like it may be a terrible tragedy,” says U.S. working to determine whether Americans on board.
Malaysia Air Crash ‘Leaves 23 Americans Dead’
President Obama Remarks on Malaysian Plane disaster
Delaware – President Obama says Malaysia Airlines crash in eastern Ukraine was a “terrible tragedy”
Malaysia Airlines Flight Crashes in Eastern Ukraine With 295 People on Board
US’ first priority is to determine if US citizens were aboard downed Flight MH17
Putin Noted Crash to Obama in Call Over Sanctions
(WSJ) The White House said that Russian President Vladimir Putin noted early reports of the downed Malaysia Airlines passenger plane at the end of a call with President Barack Obama this morning over the latest round of U.S. sanctions on Russia.
The White House said Mr. Obama was briefed on the reports this morning and has directed officials to be in close contact with senior Ukrainian officials. Mr. Obama was traveling to Wilmington, Del., Thursday, to give a speech on transportation infrastructure.
White House spokesman Josh Earnest said the White House has seen reports of the crash, “but I’m not in a position to confirm any details of those reports.” Asked about calling allies about the plane crash, Mr. Earnest said, “The president has not placed any calls like that.”
Defiant Putin warns the West not to use MH17 tragedy for ‘selfish political ends’, as Ukraine accuses Russia of spiriting away shrapnel-hit bodies to avoid implicating rebels
Russian president urges Western leaders not to politicise MH17 disaster
Says nobody has the right to use tragedy for ‘any kind of vested interest’
Also called on separatists to give investigators full access to crash site
Comments come amid threats Russian billionaires could have international assets frozen unless the country cooperates with crash investigation
David Cameron issued stark warning that Putin’s ‘cronies’ were under threat
New sanctions could be imposed at a meeting of EU ministers tomorrow
Meanwhile bodies of 200 MH17 victims are still decaying on motionless train
Undignified scene with swarms of flies has sparked international outrage
By John Hill
Vladimir Putin has issued a defiant warning that the MH17 crash must not be used for ‘selfish political ends’ and urged separatists to allow international experts access to the crash site.
Wearing a dark suit and looking tired and drawn during a rare television address, the Russian president insisted ‘all people’ in Ukraine had a responsibility to the families of the 298 passengers and crew who died last week.
But he added: ‘No-one has the right to use this tragedy for any kind of vested interest in the political sense. Such incidents should unite people rather than separate them.’
His comments came just hours after David Cameron issued a stark warning to Putin that his billionaire ‘cronies’ will have their assets frozen in London unless Russia co-operates with the investigation.
Putin: MH17 shouldn’t be used to achieve selfish political goals
Hitting back: Wearing a dark suit and looking tired and drawn, Russian president Vladimir Putin issued a defiant warning that the MH17 crash must not be used for ‘selfish political’ advantage
Rows of bodies: Bagged victims can be seen above lined up in front of a truck yesterday at the crash site, ready to be moved to the refrigerated trains
Final indignity: Rescue workers, pictured above, loaded the corpses onto trucks at the crash site in eastern Ukraine, which were then taken to refrigerated train carriages nine miles away
Meanwhile, Putin has been examining samples of aviation equipment at the Production Rocket Space Centre
VLAD HITS BACK: RUSSIAN PRESIDENT’S STATEMENT ON MH17 CRASH SITE IN FULL
There are already representatives of Donetsk and Lugansk working there, as well as representatives of the emergencies ministry of Ukraine and others. But this is not enough.
This task force is not enough. We need more, we need a fully representative group of experts to be working at the site under the guidance of ICAO, the relevant international commission.
We must do everything to provide security for the international experts on the site of the tragedy. We need to do everything to provide its [ICAO commission’s] safety, to provide the humanitarian corridors necessary for its work.
In the meantime, nobody should and has no right to use this tragedy to achieve their narrowly selfish political goals.
We repeatedly called upon all conflicting sides to stop the bloodshed immediately and sit down at the negotiating table.
I can say with confidence that if military operations were not resumed on June 28 in eastern Ukraine, this tragedy wouldn’t have happened.
During his television address this morning, Putin said it is necessary for ‘all people’ involved in the current conflict in Ukraine take responsibility for their actions.
He said there was a duty to: ‘improve their responsibility to their own people, and to the people of the countries whose representatives have been victims of this crash’.
Putin added, ‘We need to do everything to ensure the security and safety of the observers and the experts working at the crash site.’
The comments came as Chancellor George Osborne said the UK was prepared to take an ‘economic hit’ in order to put pressure on Moscow over its involvement in the Ukraine crisis.
Cameron, meanwhile, is due to make a statement to MPs later spelling out what measures he believes should be taken following the apparent shooting downing of the plane by rebels.
In what was described by Downing Street as a ‘frank’ conversation last night, the Prime Minister told Mr Putin his support for insurgents in eastern Ukraine had ‘contributed to an appalling tragedy’ and the delay in experts being able to investigate was ‘indefensible’.
The chaos surrounding the handling of the crash has compounded the grief of families all around the world bereaved by the crash, who have been left unable to arrange funerals or properly mourn their dead.
Victim’s relatives have made emotional appeals for the bodies to be returned as soon as possible, amid reports that the refrigeration in the carriage has only been inconsistently working.
Earlier the bodies of almost 200 victims of the MH17 plane disaster were seen decaying for a fourth day in a refrigerated train.
Since the bodies of the 298 victims fell from 33,000ft after their plane was struck by a surface-to-air missile, they were left in the open in sweltering heat for three days before being gathered up in bags, bundled on to trucks and driven away.
Grisly: The bodies of almost 200 victims of the MH17 plane disaster were seen for a fourth day in a refrigerated train which has done little to hold back the stench of decay which has already overtaken the corpses
Stench: A rebel can be seen holding his nose as the door to a carriage containing the heaped bodies is opened
The bodies were taken from there to the town of Torez, nine miles away, where they have been piled up in four refrigerated train carriages.
The refrigeration has done little to hold back the stench of decay which has already overtaken the corpses amid accusations the rebels are holding up the return of the bodies unnecessarily.
Rebel commanders have reportedly promised that the train will leave this afternoon, but gave no indication of where or whether the bodies would be handed over.
Further pressure will be put on Russia to cooperate with the crash investigation at the United Nations, after Britain, Germany and France came to the agreement that the EU must be prepared to ratchet up sanctions if they refuse.
A meeting of EU foreign ministers tomorrow is expected to result in a more punitive sanctions regime, with Mr Putin’s ‘crony group’ possible targets.
The threats of extensive sanctions on Russian billionaires has already spooked a number of wealthy pro-Kremlin businessmen and women.
‘The economic and business elite is just in horror,’ Igor Bunin, the head of the Center for Political Technology in Moscow, told Bloomberg news.
‘Nobody will speak out because of the implicit threat of retribution… Any sign of rebellion and they’ll be brought to their knees,’ he added.
One billionaire, speaking on condition of anonymity, added that Putin risks becoming a pariah figure as wealthy and powerful Russians seek to distance themselves from him to keep hold of their money.
David Cameron: Pressure mounting on Putin over MH17
The Prime Minister likened the failure to tackle Vladimir Putin to the appeasement of Hitler in the 1930s, while Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said Russia risked becoming a ‘pariah state’ if it carried on arming rebels
The Prime Minister likened the failure to tackle Vladimir Putin to the appeasement of Hitler in the 1930s, while Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond said Russia risked becoming a ‘pariah state’ if it carried on arming rebels
French arms sales and German dependence on Russian fossil fuels have been seen as possible barriers to tougher measures, but Britain will argue that the whole union must share the burden.
A No 10 source said the UK wanted additional names to be added to the list of Russians subject to travel bans and asset freezes under the existing criteria for EU sanctions.
These could include ‘entities’ – firms or organisations – as well as individuals involved in supporting efforts to destabilise Ukraine.
But there will also be an effort to extend the scope of the sanctions, to allow those who are influencing or supporting the ‘Russian regime’ to be targeted for sanctions, meaning oligarchs within Mr Putin’s inner circle could be named.
In a round of broadcast interviews this morning, Mr Osborne accepted that Britain could not escape unscathed from taking such action against Moscow.
‘This is about living in a world where international borders are respected, where commercial airliners are not shot down,” he told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme.
‘It is absolutely in Britain’s national economic interest that that is the case.
‘Of course any sanctions will have an economic impact, and we are prepared to undertake further sanctions.
‘But think of the economic hit… of allowing international borders to be ignored, of allowing airliners to be shot down. That is a much greater economic hit for Britain. We are not prepared to just allow that to happen.’
Investigation: Russian president Vladimir Putin has urged separatists (right) to allow international experts (left) access to the crash site
Masked and armed: A pro-Russian fighter guards the crash site of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 near the village of Hrabove in eastern Ukraine
The separatists placed bodies from the downed Boeing 777 in refrigerated train carriages in the rebel-held town of Torez, nine miles from the crash site, and said they would remain there until the arrival of an international aviation delegation.
They also claimed the plane’s black boxes had been recovered and would be handed over to the International Civil Aviation Organisation.
The UK is supporting an Australian attempt to secure a UN Security Council (UNSC) resolution, which would demand ‘safe, full and unfettered access to the site” and for the bodies to be handled with respect and dignity.’
A Downing Street source said Russia had blocked an attempt to agree a press statement by the UNSC and the Government was ‘realistic’ about the prospect of success in getting a resolution through without it being vetoed.
Meanwhile, the US set out the evidence it claimed it had for Russian separatists being behind the atrocity.
Secretary of State John Kerry said it was ‘pretty clear’ that an SA-11 missile system had been transferred by Russia into the hands of the separatists.
Russia challenges accusations that Ukraine rebels shot down airliner
By By Maria Tsvetkova8 hours ago
Russia’s Defence Ministry on Monday challenged accusations pro-Russian rebels were to blame for shooting down a Malaysian airliner and asked the United States to produce satellite images to support its assertions.
At a briefing in which generals used flashing radar images on big screens in a state-of-the-art conference room, the ministry said a Ukrainian fighter jet had tracked the airliner despite Kiev’s assertions that no aircraft were nearby.
The ministry also denied supplying the separatists in east Ukraine with SA-11 Buk anti-aircraft missile systems, known as “Gadfly” in NATO, or “any other weapons”.
The hi-tech presentation appeared a direct response to video and audio recordings used by Ukrainian security officials to back up their accusations of Russian and rebel involvement – recordings the ministry’s comments suggested were fabricated.
“Russian air space control systems detected a Ukrainian Air Force plane, presumably an SU-25 (fighter jet), scrambling in the direction of the Malaysian Boeing … The distance of the SU-25 plane from the Boeing was from 3 to 5 kilometres (2 to 3 miles),” Air Force Lieutenant-General Igor Makushev said.
“Earlier, Ukrainian officials said that on the day of the Boeing 777 crash there were no military aircraft in the region – as you can see this does not appear to be true.”
Another officer, Lieutenant-General Andrei Kartopolov, said that, “whether it is a coincidence or not”, a U.S. satellite had been monitoring the area at the time.
“We also have some questions for our U.S. partners,” he said. “According to the U.S. declarations, they have satellite images that confirm the missile was launched by the rebels. But nobody has seen these images.” “If the American side has pictures from this satellite, then they should show the international community.”
Russia and Ukraine have been waging a fierce propaganda war over the crisis in eastern Ukraine, where the rebels rose up in April against Kiev’s rule.
In an echo of the U.S. State Department’s use of lists to debunk what it calls “misinformation” in the Ukraine crisis, Russia issued its own list on Monday of 10 leading questions it wanted Kiev to answer about the downed passenger jet.
President Vladimir Putin has pointed the finger at his Ukrainian counterpart Petro Poroshenko, saying the disaster would not have happened if Kiev had not ended a ceasefire with the separatists.
Putin, looking drawn, made brief televised comments on the crisis that signalled a new determination to get Russia’s version of events across, although they were first released in the middle of the night.
He said the downing of the airliner, killing all 298 people on board, must not be used for political ends, but did not respond directly to the accusations of Russian involvement by supplying arms to the rebels.
Monday’s military briefing was the first detailed comment by Russia – which has radar stations and military bases near the border with Ukraine – since the passenger plane came down on Thursday in territory controlled by the rebels.
At the presentation, the officers said the Malaysian airliner was one of three civilian aircraft in the skies over eastern Ukraine at the time.
Kiev later said it stood by its accusations.
“There is evidence that the missile which struck the plane was fired by terrorists, who received arms and specialists from the Russian Federation,” said Andriy Lysenko, a spokesman for Ukraine’s Security Council.
Story 2: President Obama Proposed 442 Tax Hikes Since Taking Office — “You will not see your taxes go up by a single dime.” — Just Another Obama Big Lie –Videos
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Obama has Proposed 442 Tax Hikes Since Taking Office
Posted by Max Velthoven, John Kartch, Ryan Ellis
Since taking office in 2009, President Barack Obama has formally proposed a total of 442 tax increases, according to an Americans for Tax Reform analysis of Obama administration budgets for fiscal years 2010 through 2015.
The 442 total proposed tax increases does not include the 20 tax increases Obama signed into law as part of Obamacare.
“History tells us what Obama was able to do. This list reminds us of what Obama wanted to do,” said Grover Norquist, president of Americans for Tax Reform.
The number of proposed tax increases per year is as follows:
-79 tax increases for FY 2010
-52 tax increases for FY 2011
-47 tax increases for FY 2012
-34 tax increases for FY 2013
-137 tax increases for FY 2014
-93 tax increases for FY 2015
Perhaps not coincidentally, the Obama budget with the lowest number of proposed tax increases was released during an election year: In February 2012, Obama released his FY 2013 budget, with “only” 34 proposed tax increases. Once safely re-elected, Obama came back with a vengeance, proposing 137 tax increases, a personal record high for the 44th President.
In addition to the 442 tax increases in his annual budget proposals, the 20 signed into law as part of Obamacare, and the massive tobacco tax hike signed into law on the sixteenth day of his presidency, Obama has made it clear he is open to other broad-based tax increases.
During an interview with Men’s Health in 2009, when asked about the idea of national tax on soda and sugary drinks, the President said, “I actually think it’s an idea that we should be exploring.”
Obama’s statement was consistent with a pattern of remarks made by Obama White House officials refusing to rule out a VAT.
“Presidents are judged by history based on what they did in power. But presidents can only enact laws when the Congress agrees,” said Norquist. “Thus a record forged by such compromise tells you what a president — limited by congress — did rather than what he wanted to do.”
When will Bureau of Land Management (BLM) Roundup 2,000 Plus Wild Horses On Utah Rangeland? — The BLM Should Do Its Job and Not Harass Neveda Ranchers! — BLM’s Appropriate Management Level (AML) of 27,000 Wild Horses and Over 40,000 Wild Horses Nationally Plus Over 50,000 in Feed Lost Costing The American Taxpayer Millions! — Herd Size Doubles Every 4 Years — Sell The Wild Horses To China and Mexico — Beef and Food Prices Soaring — Connect The Dots People — Videos
Wild Horses on Public Lands and the impact on Ranching and Communities
We took the show to Beaver County this week to get an on the ground look at how wild horses impact the range. In Utah the population of wild horses is over the Appropriate Management Level (AML) by 1,300 animals. Nationally the problem of dealing with the number of wild horses increases to 14,000 beyond the AML. The management of wild horses costs the BLM tens of millions of dollars every year but despite the efforts to gather wild horses off the range; the numbers keep increasing.
Chad Booth talks to Beaver County Commissioner, Mark Whitney; Iron County Commissioner, David Miller; and local rancher Mark Winch about the impacts on ranchers and the ultimate impact it has on the economies of rural Utah.
Transfer of Public Lands
Public Lands in Utah County Seat Season3, Episode 8
In recent years there has been a public outcry from Utahans asking the State to take a more active role in how management decisions are made on public lands. The take back Utah movement has looked at the history of public lands in the United States and began to ask why hasn’t Utah received the same treatment as other states in the Union. Utah has about 67% of its lands controlled and managed by the federal government. Some counties in the state are about 90% federally owned which creates a burden on the local governments because there is no property tax base to pay for the services that citizens need.
Last year Utah passed the Utah Public Lands Transfer Act, HB148; which basically asks the federal government to dispose of the remaining unallocated federal lands within the state by 2014. HB148 has opened up a conversation about what the proper role of the federal government should be in the management of public lands. Today’s show takes a look at the issues from a federal, state, and county perspective.
Who Really Owns the United States of America? – Stefan Molyneux
WARNING! MORE FOOD INFLATION COMING 2014 STOCK UP ASAP
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Don’t Fence Me In – Roy Rogers & The Sons of the Pioneers –
Roy Rogers & Sons of The Pioneers Sing “The Last Roundup”
Wild horses targeted for roundup in Utah rangeland clash
By Jennifer Dobner April 11, 2014 8:41 PM
Two of a band of wild horses graze in the Nephi Wash area outside Enterprise, Utah, April 10, 2014. REUTERS/Jim …
ENTERPRISE, Utah (Reuters) – A Utah county, angry over the destruction of federal rangeland that ranchers use to graze cattle, has started a bid to round up federally protected wild horses it blames for the problem in the latest dustup over land management in the U.S. West.
Close to 2,000 wild horses are roaming southern Utah’s Iron County, well over the 300 the U.S. Bureau of Land Management has dubbed as appropriate for the rural area’s nine designated herd management zones, County Commissioner David Miller said.
County officials complain the burgeoning herd is destroying vegetation crucial to ranchers who pay to graze their cattle on the land, and who have already been asked to reduce their herds to cope with an anticipated drought.
Wild horse preservation groups say any attempt to remove the horses would be a federal crime.
On Thursday county workers, accompanied by a Bureau of Land Management staffer, set up the first in a series of metal corrals designed to trap and hold the horses on private land abutting the federal range until they can be moved to BLM facilities for adoption.
“There’s been no management of the animals and they keep reproducing,” Miller said in an interview. “The rangeland just can’t sustain it.”
The conflict reflects broader tension between ranchers, who have traditionally grazed cattle on public lands and held sway over land-use decisions, and environmentalists and land managers facing competing demands on the same land.
The Iron County roundup comes on the heels of an incident in neighboring Nevada in which authorities sent in helicopters and wranglers on horseback to confiscate the cattle herd of a rancher they say is illegally grazing livestock on public land.
In Utah, county commissioners warned federal land managers in a letter last month that the county would act independently to remove the horses if no mitigation efforts were launched.
Cattle rancher Jeremy Hunt looks out over land, at a barbed wire fence in the Nephi Wash area outsid …
“We charge you to fulfill your responsibility,” commissioners wrote. “Inaction and no-management practices pose an imminent threat to ranchers.”
The operation was expected to last weeks or months.
“The BLM is actively working with Iron County to address the horse issue,” Utah-based BLM spokeswoman Megan Crandall said, declining to comment further.
Attorneys for wild horse preservation groups sent a letter this week to Iron County commissioners and the BLM saying the BLM, under federal law, cannot round up horses on public lands without proper analysis and disclosure.
“The BLM must stop caving to the private financial interests of livestock owners whenever they complain about the protected wild horses using limited resources that are available on such lands,” wrote Katherine Meyer of Meyer, Glitzenstein and Crystal a Washington, DC-based public interest law firm representing the advocates.
The BLM puts the free-roaming wild horse and burro population across western states at more than 40,600, which it says on its website exceeds by nearly 14,000 the number of animals it believes “can exist in balance with other public rangeland resources and uses.”
Wild horse advocates point out that the tens of thousands of wild horses on BLM property pales into comparison with the millions of private livestock grazing on public lands managed by the agency.
Wild horses have not been culled due to budget constraints, according to Utah BLM officials, who say their herds grow by roughly 20 percent per year.
Pressure on rangeland from the horses may worsen this summer due to a drought that could dry up the already sparse available food supply, according to Miller.
“We’re going to see those horses starving to death out on the range,” he said. “The humane thing is to get this going now.”
Adding to frustration is BLM pressure on ranchers to cut their cattle herds by as much as 50 percent to cope with the drought, Miller said.
A tour of Iron County rangeland, not far from the Nevada border, illustrates the unchecked herds’ impact on the land, said Jeremy Hunt, a fourth generation Utah rancher whose cattle graze in the summer in a management area split through its middle by a barbed wire fence.
On the cattle side of the fence, the sagebrush and grass landscape is thick and green. The other, where a group of horses was seen on Thursday, is scattered with barren patches of dirt and sparse vegetation.
“This land is being literally destroyed because they are not following the laws that they set up to govern themselves,” said Hunt, who also works as a farmhand to make ends meet for his family of six.
“I want the land to be healthy and I want be a good steward of the land,” he added. “But you have to manage both sides of the fence.”
Wholesale Prices in U.S. Rise on Services as Goods Stagnate
By Lorraine WoellertApr 11, 2014 9:07 AM CT
Wholesale prices in the U.S. rose in March as the cost of services climbed by the most in four years while commodities stagnated.
The 0.5 percent advance in the producer-price index was the biggest since June and followed a 0.1 percent decrease the prior month, the Labor Department reported today in Washington. The recent inclusion of services may contribute to the gauge’s volatility from month-to-month, which will make it more difficult to determine underlying trends.
Rising prices at clothing and jewelry retailers and food wholesalers accounted for much of the jump in services, even as energy costs retreated, signaling slowing growth in emerging markets such as China will keep price pressures muted. With inflation running well below the Federal Reserve’s goal, the central bank is likely to keep borrowing costs low in an effort to spur growth.
“Every six months or so service prices seem to pop, but over the year, service prices tend to dampen inflation more often than not,” Jay Morelock, an economist at FTN Financial in New York, wrote in a note. “One month of price gains is not indicative of a trend.”
Also today, consumer confidence climbed this month to the highest level since July, a sign an improving job market is lifting Americans’ spirits. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary April sentiment index rose to 82.6 from 80 a month earlier.
Stocks dropped, with the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index heading for its biggest weekly decline since January, as disappointing results from JPMorgan Chase & Co. fueled concern that corporate earnings will be weak. The S&P 500 fell 0.4 percent to 1,826.29 at 10:02 a.m. in New York.
Today’s PPI report is the third to use an expanded index that measures 75 percent of the economy, compared to about a third for the old metric, which tallied the costs of goods alone. After its first major overhaul since 1978, PPI now measures prices received for services, government purchases, exports and construction.
Estimates for the PPI in the Bloomberg survey of 72 economists ranged from a drop of 0.2 percent to a 0.3 percent gain.
Core wholesale prices, which exclude volatile food and energy categories, climbed 0.6 percent, the biggest gain since March 2011, exceeding the projected 0.2 percent advance of economists surveyed by Bloomberg. They dropped 0.2 percent in February.
The year-to-year gain in producer prices was the biggest since August and followed a 0.9 percent increase in the 12 months to February. Excluding food and energy, the index also increased 1.4 percent year to year following a 1.1 percent year-to-year gain in February.
The cost of services climbed 0.7 percent in March, the biggest gain since January 2010. Goods prices were unchanged and were up 1.1 percent over the past 12 months.
Wholesale food costs climbed 1.1 percent in March, led by higher costs for meats, including pork and sausage. Energy costs fell 1.2 percent last month.
Food producers and restaurants say they’re paying more for beef, poultry, dairy and shrimp. At General Mills Inc. (GIS), maker of Yoplait yogurt, Cheerios cereal and other brands, rising dairy prices helped push retail profit down 11 percent in the third quarter, said Ken Powell, chairman and chief executive officer of the Minneapolis-based company. Powell called the inflation “manageable.”
“While the economy is improving slowly and incomes are strengthening slowly, they are improving,” Powell said on a March 19 earnings call. “As incomes continue to grow and consumers gain confidence that will be a positive sign for our category.”
Today’s PPI report provides a glimpse into the consumer-price index, the broadest of three inflation measures released by the Labor Department. The CPI, due to be released April 15, probably climbed 0.1 percent in March, according to the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey.
The wholesale price report also offers an advance look into the personal consumption expenditures deflator, a gauge monitored closely by the Fed. Health care prices make up the largest share of the core PCE index, which excludes food and energy costs. The next PCE report is due from the Commerce Department May 1.
This week, Fed policy makers played down their own predictions that interest rates might rise faster than they had forecast, according to minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee’s March meeting. The minutes bolstered remarks made by last month by Chair Janet Yellen.
“If inflation is persistently running below our 2 percent objective, that is a very good reason to hold the funds rate at its present range for longer,” Yellen said at a March 19 press conference following the committee meeting.