Archive for January, 2022

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The Pronk Pops Show 1450, January 24, 2024, Story 1: United States Sending Arms and U. S. Troops to Countries Bordering Ukraine— Videos — Story 2: Stock Market Prices Continue To Decline as Super Bubble Bursting — Videos — Story 3: Doctors Protest March Against Vaccination Mandates — Videos

Posted on January 25, 2022. Filed under: Uncategorized |

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T he Pronk Pops Show 1445 December 6, 2021, 202 1
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https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/24/can-the-us-and-europe-stop-russia-from-attacking-ukraine.html

Story 1: United States Sending Arms and U. S. Troops to Countries Bordering Ukraine— Videos

Biden IS poised to deploy US forces: President is in ‘final stages’ of identifying up to 50,000 troops to send to NATO allies in Eastern Europe over fears Russia will invade Ukraine and will talk to European leaders at 3pm about his plan

A new report reveals Joe Biden is finalizing his plans to deploy U.S. forces to Eastern Europe
Several U.S. officials told CNN the administration is in the final stages of identifying which military units to send to deter Russia and is preparing deployment orders
Biden will hold a Situation Room video call with European partners and allies Monday at 3 p.m.
The Ukraine Foreign Ministry’s spokesperson criticized the U.S. State Department’s decision to withdraw some embassy staff and families in a Monday morning Twitter post and called it ‘premature’
President Biden is considering deploying several thousand American troops together with warships and aircraft, to NATO ally countries located in the Baltics
Both the United States and United Kingdom are set to withdraw some diplomats from their embassies in Kyiv
The European Union has said it will not yet pull its diplomats from Kyiv and warned against ‘dramatizing’ the situation as other Western governments begin to cautiously evacuate their citizens
During a meeting at Camp David over the weekend, Pentagon officials outlined various options to Biden
Options would see American military might move a step closer to Russian border
Among strategies being considered, between 1,000 to 5,000 troops could be relocated to countries in Eastern Europe
There would also be a potential to increase to 50,000 should the need arise
None of the military options would see the deployment of additional American troops to Ukraine
Ukraine’s Defense Minister said Sunday night the government had received a second shipment of weapons from the United States
Meanwhile Moscow said it will be conducting its own war games off the coast of Ireland in February

By KATELYN CARALLE, U.S. POLITICAL REPORTER and CHRIS JEWERS and JAMES GORDON FOR DAILYMAIL.COM

Joe Biden is finalizing his plans to deploy U.S. forces as Russia poises itself to invade Ukraine, a new report revealed as the president faces backlash from Ukraine for pulling embassy personnel and considers deploying up to 50,000 American troops.

CNN reported Monday that several U.S. officials claim the administration is in the final stages of identifying which military units to send to Eastern Europe to deter Russia and is preparing orders should they decide to deploy troops.

Biden will speak with Transatlantic Allies and partners on Monday afternoon to discuss his plan regarding the Ukraine-Russia conflict, according to the White House’s updated version of the president’s daily schedule.

The secure video call with European leaders will be held in the Situation Room and will include European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, European Council President Charles Michel, President Emmanuel Macron of France, Chancellor Olaf Scholz of Germany, Prime Minister Mario Draghi of Italy, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, President Andrzej Duda of Poland, and Prime Minister Boris Johnson of the United Kingdom.

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko blasted President Biden on Monday for pulling U.S. embassy personnel and relatives of staff out of Kyiv.

‘We have taken note of [the State Department]’s decision re departure of family members of [US Embassy in Kyiv] staff,’ Nikolenko wrote on Twitter in the early hours of Monday morning.

‘While we respect right (sic) of foreign nations to ensure safety & security of foreign nations to ensure safety & security of their diplomatic missions, we believe such a step to be a premature one & an instance of excessive caution.’

On Sunday, the United States ordered the families of its diplomats in the Ukrainian capital Kyiv to leave the country ‘due to the continued threat’ of a Russian invasion, the State Department said.

Nikolenko noted that the EU is not telling its staff to leave. Biden is still smarting from failing to act swiftly enough in evacuating US citizens from Afghanistan.

The Biden administration has already warned American citizens in Ukraine to leave on their own, claiming the U.S. government will not be able to evacuate citizens should Russia invade.

‘Given that the President has said military action by Russia could come at any time, the US government will not be in a position to evacuate US citizens,’ officials said during a State Department call over the weekend.

‘So US citizens, currently present in Ukraine should plan accordingly,’ they added, suggesting people arrange commercial flights.

Biden is considering deploying up to 50,000 US troops as well as aircraft and warships to eastern Europe to counter a Russian military build-up that has sparked fears Vladimir Putin is about to invade Ukraine.

The plan would see between 1,000 and 5,000 soldiers sent to NATO nations such as Lithuania, Estonia and Latvia, which border Russian territory. There are already thousands of U.S. troops stationed in Europe, but the recent activity at the Russia-Ukraine border could cause relocation to the Baltic region. Russia has 1000,000 troops stationed along the border it shares with Ukraine +24View gallery

There are already thousands of U.S. troops stationed in Europe, but the recent activity at the Russia-Ukraine border could cause relocation to the Baltic region. Russia has 1000,000 troops stationed along the border it shares with Ukraine President Biden is considering deploying up to 500,000 American troops together with warships and aircraft, to NATO ally countries located in the Baltics and Eastern Europe. He is pictured at Camp David on Saturday, January 22 holding a meeting with his national security team on the Russia-Ukraine crisis +24View gallery

President Biden is considering deploying up to 500,000 American troops together with warships and aircraft, to NATO ally countries located in the Baltics and Eastern Europe. He is pictured at Camp David on Saturday, January 22 holding a meeting with his national security team on the Russia-Ukraine crisis Ukraine's Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko on Monday blasted Biden for pulling U.S. embassy personnel and relatives of staff out of Kyiv. '[W]e believe such a step to be a premature one & an instance of excessive caution,' he wrote on Twitter +24View gallery

Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Oleg Nikolenko on Monday blasted Biden for pulling U.S. embassy personnel and relatives of staff out of Kyiv. ‘[W]e believe such a step to be a premature one & an instance of excessive caution,’ he wrote on Twitter

Troop numbers could then be increased up to 50,000 if the security situation deteriorates, backed up by fresh deployments of ships and aircraft.

Pentagon officials presented the plan to Biden during a summit at Camp David over the weekend, convened to discuss military options to deter an attack by Russia after the threat of sanctions largely fell on deaf ears.

The plan would not involve American troops deployed directly to Ukraine, with Biden thought to be loathe to enter another conflict following his disastrous withdrawal of U.S. troops from Afghanistan last year, The New York Times reports.

An NBC News report notes that other options presented to Biden ahead of an invasion were sending bomber flights over the region, ship visits into the Black Sea and moving troops and equipment from other parts of Europe into Poland, Romania and other countries that neighbor Ukraine.

Biden is due to make a call on military measures as soon as this week, the Times detailed, even as high-level talks between Washington and Moscow continue – with the U.S. due to submit a written response to Russian security demands.

The Times claims this presents a change in Biden’s strategy, claiming ‘the administration is now moving away from its do-not-provoke [Russia] strategy.’

But the White House is questioning whether the New York Times report presents any new information considering Biden said at last week’s press conference: ‘We’re going to actually increase troop presence in Poland, in Romania, etc., if in fact he moves.’

‘The president has publicly said that he’d deploy troops to Eastern Europe if the Russians invade so I don’t really get how the NYT story advances that?’ a senior White House official told Politico’s Monday morning Playbook edition.

The U.S. is also already operating surveillance flights to track the Russian build-up and movement of Kremlin troops as Biden considers keeping special forces in the Ukraine in the event of a full-scale invasion.

Since late December, the Air Force has been regularly flying RC-135 Rivet Joint electronic-eavesdropping planes over Ukraine in order to listen in on Russian ground commanders’ communications, the Times reported. The Air Force is also operating ground-surveillance flights withE-8 JSTARS to track Russian troop buildup at Ukraine’s border.

The spy plane mission is meant to find any indications that Russia is considering deploying nuclear weapons to the border with Ukraine, a potential of which Russian officials already warned.

Poland’s defense ministry notes there are currently around 4,000 U.S. troops stationed in Poland.

There are also currently more than 150 U.S. military advisers in Ukraine who have operated at a training ground near Lviv for years. It includes Special Operations forces, mostly Army Green Berets, and National Guard trainers from Florida’s 53rd Infantry Brigade Combat Team.

While the U.S. intends to move its military trainers out of Ukraine swiftly should a full-scale Russian invasion occur, it’s also possible some American forces could stay to advise Kyiv officials and provide frontline support, a U.S. official told the Times. +24View gallery

Russia is planning to hold live-fire naval drills off the Irish coast next month, with Dublin saying the ships are 'not welcome' (file image, Russian ships near Saint Petersburg last year) +24View gallery

Russia is planning to hold live-fire naval drills off the Irish coast next month, with Dublin saying the ships are ‘not welcome’ (file image, Russian ships near Saint Petersburg last year)Russia holds naval drills with Iran and China in Indian OceanLoaded: 0%Progress: 0%0:00PreviousPlaySkipMuteCurrent Time0:00/Duration Time0:42FullscreenNeed Text

Moscow announced new live-fire sea drills that will take place off the coast of Ireland in February. They are part of wider drills involving up to 140 ships across four seas including Pacific and Atlantic.

The Irish government revealed Sunday that it has been warned of drills that will take place within its ‘exclusive economic zone’ but outside of its territorial waters – around 150 miles off its southwest coast. It said the drills are ‘not welcome’.

Amid warnings from the Pentagon that an invasion is ‘imminent’, families of US diplomats stationed in Ukraine were ordered to leave the country.

Non-essential embassy staff were also offered a route out of the country due to ‘increased threats of Russian military action’.

The UK has also started withdrawing diplomats and their families from Ukraine.

Half of diplomatic staff and their families stationed at the UK’s outpost in Kiev will now leave the country, sources told the BBC.

The move is not due to any specific threat against Britons in the country, the sources said, but is due to the growing risk of a Russian attack.

But the EU on Monday warned against ‘dramatizing’ the situation and said it has no plans to withdraw its own diplomats.

Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat, said he is not aware of any ‘specific reasons’ to withdraw diplomatic staff and added that negotiations are ongoing. Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted on Sunday night that the government had received a second shipment of weapons from the United States +24View gallery

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted on Sunday night that the government had received a second shipment of weapons from the United States A cargo plane was pictured in Ukraine after supposedly delivering 80 tons of weapons

A cargo plane was pictured in Ukraine after supposedly delivering 80 tons of weapons Ukraine's Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov also tweeted on Sunday a picture of a dog sitting on crates of what is presumably equipment being sent to Ukraine from the US +24View gallery

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov also tweeted on Sunday a picture of a dog sitting on crates of what is presumably equipment being sent to Ukraine from the USUS troops prepare support shipment head for UkraineLoaded: 0%Progress: 0%0:00PreviousPlaySkipMuteCurrent Time0:00/Duration Time4:03FullscreenNeed Text

Ukrainian Foreign Ministry says US will evacuate diplomats’ familiesLoaded: 0%Progress: 0%0:00PreviousPlaySkipMuteCurrent Time0:00/Duration Time3:28FullscreenNeed Text

US spy planes surveilling Ukraine and its borders: Green Berets could stay to help forces if Russia invades, official reveals

The U.S. is operating surveillance flights over Ukraine to track the Russian build-up and movement of troops at its borders. President Joe Biden is also considers keeping select special forces in the Eastern European country in the event of a full-scale invasion.

The article notes the Air Force is also operating ground-surveillance flights with E-8 JSTARS to track Russian troop buildup at Ukraine’s border and movements of Kremlin forces.

Biden specifically is interested in using spy planes to find indications on whether Russia is considering or has already deploying nuclear weapons to the border with Ukraine. Russian officials have warned of this potential.

In conjunction with sending more troops – which the Times says Biden is considering deploying up to 50,000 – the president is also looking at approving sending more aircraft to the region.

Poland’s defense ministry notes there are currently around 4,000 U.S. troops stationed in Poland.

It comes after the UK alleged at the weekend that Moscow has been making preparations to install a puppet government to take control of Ukraine in the wake of any invasion.

The Foreign Office even went so far as to name former Ukrainian MP Yevhen Murayev as a potential Kremlin candidate.

Meanwhile, NATO allies have put forces on standby and sent ships and fighter jets to bolster Europe’s eastern defenses, the alliance said Monday.

‘NATO will continue to take all necessary measures to protect and defend all Allies, including by reinforcing the eastern part of the Alliance. We will always respond to any deterioration of our security environment,’ NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said in a statement.

The Western alliance pointed to decisions in recent days by Denmark to send a frigate and warplanes to the Baltic states, Spain bolstering naval deployments and the Netherlands putting a ‘ship and land-based units on standby’ for its rapid response force.

The statement also highlighted a recent offer from France to send troops to Romania and said ‘the United States has also made clear that it is considering increasing its military presence’.

A senior Biden administration official declined to confirm specific troop numbers on Sunday but said ‘we are developing plans and we are consulting with allies to determine options moving forward.’

Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley both attended the meetings virtually.

None of the military options being looked at would see the deployment of additional American troops to Ukraine itself with the president keen to avoid entering another conflict.

Biden is expected to make a decision as early as this week but it appears weaponry is already on the move.

Ukraine’s Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov tweeted on Sunday night that the government had received a second shipment of weapons from the United States.

‘The second bird in Kyiv! More than 80 tons of weapons to strengthen Ukraine’s defense capabilities from our friends in the USA! And this is not the end,’ Reznikov tweeted, together with photos of the incendiary cargo.

National security adviser Jake Sullivan and counselor to the President Steve Ricchetti joined Biden in person at Camp David as part of the meetings.

Share US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin +24View gallery

U.S. Chairman of Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley +24View gallery

The briefing saw Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, left, and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Gen. Mark Milley both attending virtually President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are pictured meeting in June 2021 +24View gallery

President Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin are pictured meeting in June 2021

‘President Biden was briefed on the current state of Russian military operations on Ukraine’s borders and discussed both our ongoing efforts to de-escalate the situation with diplomacy and our range of deterrence measures that are being coordinated closely with our Allies and partners, including ongoing deliveries of security assistance to Ukraine.

‘President Biden again affirmed that should Russia further invade Ukraine, the United States will impose swift and severe consequences on Russia with our Allies and partners,’ a readout of the briefing said.

The goal military reinforcement in eastern Europe would essentially be to provide deterrence and reassurance to allies.

The options include the ‘movement of assets and forces already in Europe and also assets and forces available outside of Europe.’

The Biden administration is also looking at using a ‘novel export control’ that could damage certain Russian industries, such artificial intelligence, quantum computing and aerospace, if any invasion occurs.

According to the Washington Post, it would involve the U.S. deliberately stopping the flow of components such as microchips, that are crucial for Russian industries including civil aviation, maritime and high technology.

The administration could also act in a far broader manner stopping the importing of smartphones, tablets and video game consoles into Russia from the U.S. U.S. said it was ordering the departure of eligible family members of staff from its embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, pictured here in 2017 +24View gallery

U.S. said it was ordering the departure of eligible family members of staff from its embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, pictured here in 2017 Members of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces, volunteer military units of the Armed Forces, train in a city park in Kyiv, Ukraine. Dozens of civilians have been joining Ukraine's army reserves in recent weeks amid fears about Russian invasion +24View gallery

Members of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces, volunteer military units of the Armed Forces, train in a city park in Kyiv, Ukraine. Dozens of civilians have been joining Ukraine’s army reserves in recent weeks amid fears about Russian invasionPsaki says there is a plan to evacuate Americans from UkraineLoaded: 0%Progress: 0%0:00PreviousPlaySkipMuteCurrent Time0:00/Duration Time1:12FullscreenNeed Text

If the U.S. does decide to send more troops to the region, such a move would be a change of tact for the Biden administration which up to now has been restrained over the situation in Ukraine, partly to avoid provoking Russia into invading the country.

If Biden approves the deployment, some of the troops would be American while others would be drafted from other countries in Europe.

Commanders have suggested that more air defense, engineering, logistics and artillery forces would be required.

Besides the troops, Biden could also approve additional aircraft being sent to the region.

After Friday’s talks between the U.S. and Russia, appear to have failed, Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared to be ratcheting up the tension, threatening actions towards Ukraine.

In doing so, the U.S. is now moving away from its previous stance of not wanting to provoke a Russian administration sources told the Times.

During a meeting in Camp David over the weekend, Pentagon officials outlined various options to President Biden, many of which would see American military might move a step closer to the Russian border.

Sources say that there is the potential to send up to 50,000 should the need arise.

Last week, Biden said he warned Putin that any Russian invasion of Ukraine would see more U.S. troops sent to the region.

‘We’re going to actually increase troop presence in Poland, in Romania, et cetera, if in fact he moves,’ Biden said. ‘They are part of NATO.’EU will impose ‘never-seen-before’ sanctions to Russia, says DenmarkLoaded: 0%Progress: 0%0:00PreviousPlaySkipMuteCurrent Time0:00/Duration Time3:15FullscreenNeed Text

A Russian rocket launcher fires during military drills near Orenburg in the Urals, Russia in December. With tens of thousands of Russian troops positioned near Ukraine, the Kremlin has kept the U.S. and its allies guessing about its next moves in the worst Russia-West security crisis since the Cold War Members of Ukraine's Territorial Defense Forces, volunteer military units of the Armed Forces, train in a city park in Kyiv, Ukraine. Dozens of civilians have been joining Ukraine's army reserves in recent weeks amid fears about Russian invasion

Members of Ukraine’s Territorial Defense Forces, volunteer military units of the Armed Forces, train in a city park in Kyiv, Ukraine. Dozens of civilians have been joining Ukraine’s army reserves in recent weeks amid fears about Russian invasion American and NATO flags are seen at a Stand With Ukraine rally in Union Square, New York. Members of the Russian-speaking diaspora and Ukrainian activists demonstrated amid threat of Russian invasion of the Ukraine +24View gallery

American and NATO flags are seen at a Stand With Ukraine rally in Union Square, New York. Members of the Russian-speaking diaspora and Ukrainian activists demonstrated amid threat of Russian invasion of the UkraineEU confirm no plans to withdraw diplomats’ families from UkraineLoaded: 0%Progress: 0%0:00PreviousPlaySkipMuteCurrent Time0:00/Duration Time2:12FullscreenNeed Text

The talks that ended in Geneva last week produced no breakthroughs, though American and Russian diplomats vowed to keep a dialogue up, averting the worst-case scenario.

Russian Foreign Affairs Minister Sergey Lavrov said Moscow was still waiting for a written response to its demands for security guarantees, something which Blinken said he would not provide.

He also called two of Russia’s key demands aimed at curbing NATO expansion ‘non-starters.’

On Sunday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said it’s possible Kremlin officials are just ‘going through the motions’ of diplomacy after a week of intense international talks aimed at de-escalating Russian aggression on Ukraine‘s border. Blinken made a slew of Sunday news program appearances after returning from diplomatic talks in Europe over the crisis

Blinken made a slew of Sunday news program appearances after returning from diplomatic talks in Europe over the crisishttps://www.nbcnews.com/news/embedded-video/mmvo131497029796
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Even after meeting with his Russian counterpart, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, in Geneva on Friday, Blinken admitted on NBC’s Meet The Press that Moscow could still invade the smaller former Soviet state despite the efforts of Western governments.

The US’s chief diplomat also would not rule out possible American military involvement in the worsening conflict, during a separate interview on CNN‘s State of the Union Sunday.

‘It is certainly possible that the diplomacy the Russians are engaged in is simply going through the motions and it won’t affect their ultimate decision about whether to invade or in some other way intervene, or not in Ukraine,’ Blinken told NBC host Chuck Todd.

‘But, we have a responsibility to see the diplomacy through for as, as far and as long as we can go because it’s the more responsible way to bring this to a closure.’

Blinken did not indicate when he thought a possible invasion would occur — but also would not give a straight answer when asked if Kyiv ‘appears safe, at least in the near term.’ US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the US embassy in Kyiv on January 19, 2022 +24View gallery

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken at the US embassy in Kyiv on January 19, 2022

‘This is something again that we’re tracking intensely, hour by hour and certainly day by day,’ he said.

Blinken ratcheted up his warnings to Moscow during his interview on CNN, claiming it could take a single soldier crossing the border to trigger a global reaction.

‘If a single additional Russian force goes into Ukraine in an aggressive way, as I said, that would trigger a swift, a severe and a united response from us and from Europe,’ he told host Dana Bash.

Vladimir Putin has placed more than 100,000 troops at the Ukrainian border, and last week Blinken warned that Russia had the capability to double that number in short order. Moscow has said it has no plans to invade Ukraine.ADVERTISEMENTRead more:

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EUROPE POLITICS

If war is coming, the West must decide how far it will go to defend Ukraine against Russia

PUBLISHED MON, JAN 24 20224:08 AM ESTUPDATED MON, JAN 24 20222:23 PM ESTHolly Ellyatt @HOLLYELLYATTSHAREShare Article via FacebookShare Article via TwitterShare Article via LinkedInShare Article via EmailKEY POINTS

The U.S. State Department urged U.S. citizens in Ukraine to leave the country immediately, as Russia’s military buildup at the border shows no sign of dissipating.
Russia has repeatedly denied it is preparing to invade its neighbor Ukraine, despite stationing around 100,000 Russian troops at various locations along the border, according to Ukrainian and Western officials.
Analysts are now questioning whether the West can actually deter Russia, and just how far Western allies are willing to go to defend the country.

Servicemen of Russia’s Eastern Military District units attend a welcoming ceremony as they arrive at unfamiliar training ranges in Belarus combining their own means of transport with travelling by train, to take part in a joint military exercise held by the Union State of Russia and Belarus and aiming to simulate repelling an external attack on its border, cutting possible supply lines for invaders as well as detecting, containing and eliminating their combat and subversive units.Russian Defence Ministry | TASS | Getty Images

Fears of a Russian invasion of Ukraine are growing, as the military buildup at the border shows no sign of dissipating and crisis talks remain at an impasse.

As the U.S. and U.K. respond with threats of sanctions and more, and withdraw diplomatic staff from their embassies in Kyiv, analysts are questioning whether the West can actually deter Russia, and just how far Western allies are willing to go to defend the country.

“While Russia continues to send additional troops and weaponry to the Ukraine border, there seem to be some divisions among the Western allies about how to respond,” Helima Croft, head of global commodity strategy and Middle East and North Africa research at RBC Capital Markets, said in a note Sunday evening.WATCH NOWVIDEO04:53What investors need to watch amid tensions between the U.S. and Russia

“While they have all promised a tough response, the U.K. and the U.S. have gone furthest in pledging crippling economic sanctions and indicating that Russia indeed has invasion plans and is seeking to install a pro-Kremlin leader in Kiev. By contrast, the German naval chief was forced to resign after stating that Putin ‘deserved respect’ — and suggesting that Berlin should join forces with Moscow against Beijing — and Chancellor Scholz called for ‘prudence’ in the application of sanctions.”

(R-L) Annalena Baerbock, German Foreign Minister, and Antony Blinken, Foreign Minister of the United States of America, are pictured during a press conference on January 20, 2022 in Berlin, Germany.Florian Gaertner | Photothek | Getty Images

She also noted that Germany has refused to provide Ukraine with military support, in contrast to the U.S. and U.K. In addition, the country has reportedly blocked Estonia from sending German-made weapons to Ukraine.

The U.S. State Department recommended Sunday that all U.S. citizens in Ukraine leave the country immediately, citing Russia’s significant military buildup on the border. It also ordered eligible family members of personnel at its embassy in Kyiv to depart the country due to the deteriorating security conditions.

People walk near the U.S. embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine January 24, 2022.Gleb Garanich | Reuters

Britain, too, has reportedly started to withdraw diplomatic staff from its embassy in Ukraine, the BBC’s diplomatic correspondent said Monday. The move comes after the U.K. accused the Kremlin on Saturday of seeking to install a pro-Russian leader in Ukraine.https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=HollyEllyatt&dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1485523421882638336&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.cnbc.com%2F2022%2F01%2F24%2Fcan-the-us-and-europe-stop-russia-from-attacking-ukraine.html&sessionId=230330697d3a3507937c8a2b59119edc3bfa5d3b&siteScreenName=CNBC&theme=light&widgetsVersion=75b3351%3A1642573356397&width=550px

Russia has repeatedly denied it is preparing to invade its neighbor Ukraine, despite stationing around 100,000 Russian troops at various locations along the border, according to Ukrainian and Western officials, and building up military hardware there.

Russia says it has the right to move military personnel and equipment wherever it likes in the country, and last week accused the West of plotting “provocations” in Ukraine, a country that aspires to join both the EU and NATO as its government under President Volodymyr Zelenskyy seeks closer ties with the West.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, on the other hand, has been a vocal critic of the collapse of the Soviet Union (of which Ukraine was a part) in 1991, and has extolled the historical ties of Russia and Ukraine.WATCH NOWVIDEO02:44Ex-U.S. ambassador on the Russia-Ukraine crisis: ‘Capability is part of intent’

There have been various top-level meetings between Russian, U.S. and NATO officials in recent weeks to try to deescalate tensions, but these have not met with much success.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov attends a meeting with Switzerland’s President and head of the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs Ignazio Cassis, on the sidelines of the U.S.-Russia summit in Geneva, Switzerland January 21, 2022.Russian Foreign Ministry | via Reuters

Russia wants legal assurances that Ukraine will not be allowed to join the U.S. and European military alliance NATO, which it has not received. The Kremlin also wants to see NATO roll back military infrastructure and personnel from parts of Eastern Europe, and in the former Soviet countries of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. NATO and U.S. officials have also refused those demands.

John Herbst, senior director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center and a former U.S. ambassador to Ukraine, told CNBC on Monday that he thinks the West must “push back hard against Kremlin aggression” — and to do it sooner rather than later.

“We’ve tried appeasement with Putin. We tried it in 2008 when he went into Georgia, and suffered almost no consequences. We tried it with Crimea, where he also suffered almost no consequences,” he said.

Herbst said that U.S. President Joe Biden’s proposed framework if Russia escalates in Ukraine — additional sanctions, sending weapons to Ukraine and the deployment of more NATO forces to Russia’s border — was reasonable, but “not sufficiently active.”

“What we should be doing is we should be moving those forces within NATO now. We should be sending those weapons now,” he said. “It seems that the Biden administration is starting to move in those directions. But it needs to be stronger and faster, and we need to do it in conjunction with our allies.”

Could more sanctions deter Russia?

The U.S., U.K. and EU have all warned Russia that it will face further crippling sanctions if it invades its neighbor — but Russia is already used to operating under sanctions.

Penalties were imposed on some of its key sectors (like energy and finance) and officials in the wake of its 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, and its role in pro-Russian uprisings in eastern Ukraine, where lower-level fighting has continued between Ukrainian troops and pro-Russian separatists ever since.

Russian warships are seen ahead of the Navy Day parade in the Black Sea port of Sevastopol, Crimea July 23, 2021.Alexey Pavlishak | Reuters

More international sanctions were imposed on Russia for its 2016 U.S. election interference, its role in cyberattacks against the U.S. and a 2018 nerve agent attack in the U.K., among other misdemeanors, although Russia has regularly denied involvement in such events despite evidence to the contrary.

When it comes to the current situation with Ukraine, Western allies have again threatened a tough response to Russia — but there has been public disunity over what punitive measures could be taken.

While the U.S. and U.K. favor more punitive action against Russia’s economy should it invade Ukraine, there is hesitation in some European countries because of economic or diplomatic reasons. For example, Germany — Europe’s de facto leader — is reluctant to see sanctions imposed on its giant gas pipeline project with Russia, Nord Stream 2, which will supply much of Europe with natural gas.

RBC Capital Market’s Croft noted Sunday that “there is the question of whether any of the sanctions being discussed in Western capitals will deter President Putin if he is intent on bringing Ukraine firmly back into Russia’s orbit.

“Leading sanctions experts contend that the West could potentially change Putin’s calculus if these nations were prepared to impose serious sanctions on the key Russian financial institutions (VTB, Sberbank, Gazprombank) and on energy exports (along the lines of what was done with Iran). However, barring Nord Stream 2, Washington has already indicated that it will seek to exempt energy from the punitive measures currently being prepared,” she wrote.

Likewise, Croft added, “given that a number of Western asset managers hold the Russian financials, a key question is whether the U.S. and its European allies would really blacklist these institutions.”

Critical week ahead

Global markets are likely to remain nervous this week that there could be an imminent military conflict between Ukraine and Russia, while Western officials are set to hold further crisis meetings on the situation.

On Monday, the EU’s Foreign Affairs Council will meet in the afternoon and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg will hold talks with foreign affairs ministers from Finland and Sweden.

Then on Tuesday, political advisors from Russia, Ukraine, France and Germany will hold “Normandy format” talks on eastern Ukraine in Paris, according to Reuters.

U.S. President Joe Biden holds a meeting with his national security team on the Russia-Ukraine crisis, at Camp David, in Maryland, U.S. January 22, 2022.The White House | Reuters

With tensions ratcheting higher, Biden is reportedly considering deploying several thousand U.S. troops, as well as warships and aircraft, to NATO allies in the Baltics and Eastern Europe, which would represent a significant expansion of American military involvement, according to The New York Times.

As Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the military alliance is not obliged to defend it, posing the question over just how far the U.S. and EU are willing to go to defend Ukraine, however.WATCH NOWVIDEO03:06It’s not possible to change Ukraine’s regime without a war, says analyst

On Sunday, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken told CBS that the U.S. remained committed to diplomacy and dialog with Russia but “even as we’re doing that we’re building up defenses, we’re building up deterrents.” If Russia does invade Ukraine, there will be “massive consequences,” he added.

Meanwhile, the U.K.’s deputy prime minister, Dominic Raab, said Sunday that “Ukraine is a free country under international law, it should decide its own fate, we will support them in defending themselves.” He added that there will be “very serious consequences if Russia takes this move to try and invade, but also install a puppet regime.”

He said that any prospect of a British military deployment to Ukraine was “extremely unlikely,” however.

“What we have said is that we are already willing and engaged in training programs to support the Ukrainians defending themselves. That’s absolutely right for defensive purposes. Secondly … we want to make sure that the economic cost to the Kremlin of doing so (invading) is sufficiently severe that they think twice,” he told Sky News on Sunday.

Biden admin weighs offering Russia cuts to U.S. troops in Eastern Europe

Sources say U.S. cuts in Poland and the Baltics would have to be matched by Russian moves in the area. The White House denies cuts to troops stationed there are under consideration.

Image: Joint military exercise in Poland

Soldiers from Poland, Britain, US and Romania take part in a joint military exercise at the military training ground in Bemowo Piskie on Nov. 18, 2021.Janek Skarzynski / AFP via Getty ImagesJan. 7, 2022, 11:01 AM CST / Updated Jan. 8, 2022, 11:06 AM CSTBy Courtney Kube, Dan De Luce, Carol E. Lee and Andrea Mitchell

The Biden administration is heading into next week’s talks with Russia still unsure whether Moscow is serious about negotiations, but if so U.S. officials are ready to propose discussions on scaling back U.S. and Russian troop deployments and military exercises in Eastern Europe, a current administration official and two former U.S. national security officials familiar with the planning told NBC News.

The discussions could potentially address the scope of military drills held by both powers, the number of U.S. troops stationed in the Baltic states and Poland, advance notice about the movement of forces, and Russia’s nuclear-capable Iskander missiles in the Russian territory of Kaliningrad between Poland and Lithuania, the sources said.

With tens of thousands of Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border, the Biden administration is threatening unprecedented sanctions and other tough steps if Russia takes military action against Ukraine. But the administration is also exploring ways to defuse tensions with Russia as U.S. officials prepare for a series of high-stakes discussions with Moscow starting Monday.

The administration “is compiling a list of options for force posture changes in Europe to discuss with Russia at the talks,” an administration official said. If Russia appears willing to discuss scaling back its presence in the region, the U.S. will be prepared to discuss specific moves, the official said.

For any change in the U.S. military presence in Europe, Russia would have to take reciprocal, equivalent steps to scale back its forces, and pulling back Russian troops from Ukraine would not be sufficient, the current official and former officials said.

After the publication of this story, White House National Security spokesperson Emily Horne disputed that the U.S. would consider reducing the number of troops permanently stationed in Poland and the Baltic states.

In a statement, Horne said, “The administration is not weighing cuts to troops in Europe, as the headline suggests. The administration is not discussing with Russia the number of troops stationed in the Baltics and Poland. And contrary to the unnamed official quoted in this story, the administration is not compiling a list of force posture changes to discuss in the upcoming talks. These three assertions are false.”

A State Department official also said, after publication, “There are three key assertions in the report that has been circulating, those three assertions are false.”

After Russia seized Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014, the U.S. and other NATO states deployed a modest number of troops to Eastern Europe, including U.S. armored units, and expanded air and naval patrols along with high-profile military exercises from the Baltics to the Black Sea.

Out of more than 70,000 U.S. troops stationed in Europe, roughly 6,000 U.S. forces are deployed in Eastern Europe on a mostly rotating basis, including about 4,000 in Poland. Other NATO countries also have thousands of troops on rotating deployments in the region to bolster the alliance’s eastern flank.

Biden and Putin hold high-stakes phone call amid Ukraine tension

DEC. 30, 202101:20

NATO’s enhanced “forward presence” and exercises have angered Russia, which says the alliance’s activities pose a threat to Russia.

Merely considering any changes to U.S. military exercises or the American military presence in Eastern Europe could alarm NATO allies in the region, particularly Poland and the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. Those countries were once dominated by Russia and the former Soviet Union and fear renewed aggression without protection from the U.S. and NATO.

Any negotiations on troop deployments in Central and Eastern Europe would have to include all the countries affected, including NATO members on the alliance’s eastern flank, said William Taylor, who served as U.S. ambassador to Ukraine during the Bush administration and as acting ambassador during the Trump administration.

“They should be at the table,” said Taylor, now with the U.S. Institute of Peace.

But he said it was worth pursuing possible talks that could reduce tensions along the border separating Russia and NATO allies.

“Our overall goal is to increase security and I would argue there are ways to do that by limiting in a smart way . . . what the Russians could do and reciprocal limits on what the NATO alliance could do,” said Taylor. “We’re talking about steps that would build confidence that neither side is preparing to invade the other.”

The possible measures could include sharing information about military drills in sensitive areas and stationing observers to monitor the exercises, Taylor said.

If successful, such talks could revive the spirit of the now-moribund 1990 treaty between the West and the Soviet bloc on conventional forces, which required Washington and Moscow to share information about movement of forces and weapons. Experts say the treaty helped prevent conflict during the end of the Cold War.

But it’s uncertain if Russia is prepared to engage in genuine arms control negotiations and any meaningful progress will be impossible until Russia pulls back the massive force it has deployed on Ukraine’s borders, former officials said.

Even as it plans for diplomacy with Russia, the Biden administration continues to brace for a possible military offensive in Ukraine, warning that any attack will trigger harsh sanctions on Moscow and more Western military support for Ukraine.

The United States is working with other NATO alliance members to arrange for the delivery of Stinger shoulder-launched anti-aircraft missiles requested by the government in Kyiv, current and former officials said. Ukrainian officials believe the Stinger surface-to-air missiles would help its military defend the country against low-flying Russian helicopters and drones.

Biden reaffirms support for Ukraine amid tension with Russia

JAN. 3, 202203:41

The Biden administration also has prepared a new U.S. package of military aid for Ukraine, in addition to the American military assistance that is already flowing to Kyiv, current and former officials said. A source familiar with the Ukrainian government’s thinking said Kyiv was hopeful that the administration was poised to approve the additional assistance.

ELECTIONS House Speaker Pelosi will run for re-election to Congress

WHITE HOUSE Biden weighing public remarks on Ukraine strategy

Apart from the threat of sanctions, the administration is prepared to warn Moscow that if Russian forces seize more territory in Ukraine, the United States would lend support to Ukrainian resistance fighters and would back an expanded NATO military presence in Eastern Europe, former officials said.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken on Wednesday suggested it was possible to find a way to agree on immediate steps with Russia that would reduce tensions, but did not elaborate.

“I believe that if Russia is serious about pursuing diplomacy and de-escalation, that there are things that that all of us can do relatively quickly to build greater confidence and to reduce some of the concerns that we have,” Blinken said after meeting German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock.

“There are also issues that could be on the table that would take some time to work through, particularly, for example, when it comes to arms control, you don’t come up with an arms control agreement in a matter of weeks,” he added.

Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman and other U.S. officials are due to meet their Russian counterparts in Geneva on Monday, and then wider talks involving NATO and other European governments are scheduled to follow during the week. The administration has vowed that it will not discuss any issues with Russia that affect other Eastern European countries without including those governments in the talks, citing the principle of “nothing about you without you.”

As it prepares for the talks with Russia, the White House faces a delicate balancing act as it tries to lower the temperature without bowing to Russian threats or saber-rattling, former U.S. officials said.

It remained unclear if Russia was open to dialogue and compromise or whether it would stick to public positions that Washington sees as unrealistic and unreasonable, including demanding a guarantee that Ukraine would never be allowed to join the NATO alliance, former officials said.

An NSC spokesperson said, “We don’t know what next week’s conversations will bring” but said that the U.S. approach “will be pragmatic and results-oriented.”

“We believe there are areas where we can make progress if Moscow is realistic in its approach. We can’t be sure until the talks take place — that’s the nature of diplomacy,” the spokesperson said.

Ukrainian President Zelenskyy displays U.S. military hardware amid rising tensions with Russia

DEC. 7, 202101:21

As for Russia’s assertions that Ukraine poses a threat to Russia due to its defense ties to European countries or that the NATO alliance represents a danger for Moscow, U.S. officials argue that it is Russia that has flouted international law and raised the risk of conflict in recent years. They point to Russia’s invasion of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine, its attempts to meddle in other countries’ elections and accusations Moscow used chemical weapons to attempt assassinations on foreign soil.

“We and our allies will be raising those and other issues with Russia in the days and weeks ahead,” the NSC spokesperson said.

The White House has reached out to a number of former senior national security officials and Russian experts over the past month to discuss its approach to Russia and seek out their advice. Some of those officials, including former senior military officers and ambassadors, have urged the administration to adhere to a tough line, maintain a united front with European allies, counter Russian propaganda and avoid signaling to Moscow that it could secure concessions for its troop buildup around Ukraine.

A letter from 24 former national security officials and senior military officers last week praised Biden’s approach so far but called for additional steps to prevent Russia from staging another invasion, instead of waiting until after an offensive is launched.

The group called for providing more weapons to Ukraine now, suggesting Stinger missiles and additional shipments of Javelin anti-tank missiles and radar to track artillery fire.

“We believe the United States should, in closest consultation with its NATO allies and with Ukraine, take immediate steps to affect the Kremlin’s cost-benefit calculations before the Russian leadership opts for further military escalation,” the letter said.

Administration officials are preparing an array of unprecedented sanctions against Moscow if it takes military action in Ukraine, and have sought to secure support for similar measures from European allies.

Security forces open fire as unrest in Kazakhstan spirals

JAN. 6, 202201:11

Although U.S. and European governments appear to be close to a consensus on Russia, it’s unclear if some European leaders will be ready to impose penalties on Moscow if Russia takes provocative actions that fall short of a full-fledged military offensive, such as a cyberattack or the seizure of a small area of territory, former officials said.

In addition to blocking Russia’s access to New York bond markets and sanctioning oligarchs linked to Russian President Vladimir Putin, the U.S. measures could include targeting semiconductor exports linked to Russia’s defense industry, according to three former U.S. officials briefed on the issue.

Biden administration officials have said repeatedly that the U.S. will not entertain Russia’s demand that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO and will insist on Kyiv’s right to decide its future.

Only days before the U.S.-Russia talks were due to begin in Geneva, Russia deployed troops to another former Soviet republic, Kazakhstan, a close ally of Moscow. Amid widespread anti-government protests, Russia said it sent in paratroopers as part of a regional peacekeeping mission.

It is too soon to say how the turmoil in Kazakhstan could affect the crisis in Ukraine. But if the situation deteriorates, it potentially could take the pressure off of Ukraine, at least temporarily, as Russia could choose to focus its attention and military forces on Kazakhstan, regional experts said.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/national-security/biden-admin-weighs-proposing-cuts-us-russian-forces-eastern-europe-rcna11080

Why NATO Has Become a Flash Point With Russia in Ukraine

Russian leaders have watched with mounting resentment as the transatlantic alliance has nearly doubled its membership since the end of the Cold War. President Vladimir Putin has drawn a red line in Ukraine.

A NATO sign marks the seventieth anniversary of the Atlantic alliance in Kyiv, Ukraine. Pierre Crom/Getty Images

WRITTEN BYJonathan MastersUPDATEDJanuary 20, 2022 2:48 pm (EST) Summary

Russia has mobilized more than one hundred thousand troops along its border with Ukraine and is demanding major security concessions from NATO.
Russia alleges that U.S. leaders have broken promises they made in the early 1990s to not expand NATO’s membership eastward.
U.S. and NATO leaders say no such pledges were made and refuse to discuss limitations on NATO’s future expansion, but they say they are open to some security dialogue with Russia.

Introduction

Tensions between Russia and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) have reached the point of crisis. The government of Russian President Vladimir Putin is threatening a wider military incursion into Ukraine unless the U.S.-led alliance makes several major security concessions, including a commitment to cease expanding eastward.

Russia says that the United States and NATO have continually violated pledges allegedly made in the early 1990s that the alliance would not expand into the former Soviet bloc. Meanwhile, alliance leaders have said they are open to new diplomacy with Russia on arms control and other matters but that they are unwilling to discuss forever shutting NATO’s doors to new members.RELATEDUkraine: Conflict at the Crossroads of Europe and Russiaby Jonathan Masters NATO’s Trident Juncture Exercises: What to Knowby Jonathan Masters

What is the source of Russia’s dispute with NATO?

Russian leaders have long been wary of the eastward expansion of NATO, particularly as the alliance opened its doors to former Warsaw Pact states and ex-Soviet republics in the late 1990s (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) and early 2000s (Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia). Their fears grew in the late 2000s as the alliance stated its intent to admit Georgia and Ukraine at an unspecified point in the future.

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For the Kremlin, the notion that Ukraine, a pillar of the Soviet Union with strong historic ties to Russia, would join NATO was a red line. “No Russian leader could stand idly by in the face of steps toward NATO membership for Ukraine. That would be a hostile act toward Russia,” Putin warned U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs William J. Burns, who is now director of the CIA, in the weeks leading up to NATO’s 2008 Bucharest Summit.

Although NATO did not announce a formal membership plan for Ukraine and Georgia at the Bucharest Summit, the alliance did affirm “that these countries will become members of NATO,” and it extended formal invitations to accessiontalks to Albania and Croatia, which became members in 2009. NATO expanded again in 2017, admitting Montenegro, and in 2020, welcoming North Macedonia.NATO’s Expanding Membership A map showing the expansion of NATO’s membership from 1949 to 2020.

RUSSIA

UKRAINE

Founding members

Cold War expansion

Post–Cold War expansion

1949

Belgium

Canada

Denmark

France

Iceland

Italy

Luxembourg

Netherlands

Norway

Portugal

United Kingdom

United States

1952

1955

1982

Greece

Turkey

West Germany

Spain

1990

1999

2004

2009

2017

2020

Germany*

Czech Republic

Hungary

Poland

Bulgaria

Estonia

Latvia

Lithuania

Romania

Slovakia

Slovenia

Albania

Croatia

Montenegro

North Macedonia

*German reunification in 1990 resulted in what was formerly East Germany becoming part of NATO. The map shows West and East Germany.Source: NATO.

Did the United States promise the Soviet Union that it would freeze NATO expansion?

Russian officials say that the U.S. government made a pledge to Soviet leaders not to expand the alliance’s eastern borders, a commitment they say came during the flurry of diplomacy following the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 and surrounding the reunification of Germany in 1990. Proponents of this narrative often cite the words that U.S. Secretary of State James A. Baker said to Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in February 1990, that “there would be no extension of NATO’s jurisdiction for forces of NATO one inch to the east.” They say the United States and NATO have repeatedly betrayed this verbal commitment in the decades since, taking advantage of Russia’s tumultuous post-Soviet period and expanding the Western alliance several times, all the way to Russia’s doorstep in the case of the Baltic states.

However, many Western analysts and former U.S. officials involved in these discussions dispute what they say is a selective view of history. They point out that, in early 1990, the focus of the diplomacy between the so-called Two Plus Four (East and West Germany plus the United States, France, the Soviet Union, and the United Kingdom) was the future of Germany and the question of whether the soon-to-be unified country would be part of NATO. (West Germany was already an alliance member, while East Germany was part of the Soviet-aligned Warsaw Pact.) They say that the discussions were not about NATO’s long-term plans for eastward expansion, which would have made little sense at that time; the Warsaw Pact and the Soviet Union still existed, and there was scant indication they would dissolve as quickly as they did, in a matter of months. In a 2014 interview, Gorbachev said as much: “The topic of ‘NATO expansion’ was never discussed. It was not raised in those years.”

The diplomacy between U.S. and Soviet leaders during this period focused on Germany and included discussions of various post-unification security options, including the potential for Germany to become part of both NATO and the Warsaw Pact, for Germany to be nonaligned, and even for the Soviet Union to join NATO. Early in the talks, Soviet leaders insisted that a unified Germany never become part of NATO, though they eventually accepted Germany’s right to decide for itself. Similarly, the United States stepped back from Baker’s initial language on not expanding “NATO’s jurisdiction,” which he reportedly used only in the discussion about whether NATO troops would be based in what was then East Germany. In the end, the treaty recognizing German unification that the Two Plus Four powers signed in the summer of 1990 stipulated that only German territorial (non-NATO) forces could be based in East Germany while Soviet forces withdrew. After that, only German forces assigned to NATO could be based there, not foreign NATO forces. The treaty doesn’t mention NATO’s rights and commitments beyond Germany.

How did NATO feature in diplomacy between U.S. and post-Soviet Russian leaders?

Some experts point to another pivotal moment to help explain the mistrust between Russia and NATO today: the 1993–94 discussions between the Bill Clinton administration and the Russian government led by Boris Yeltsin.

By this point, the Warsaw Pact and Soviet Union had collapsed, and the Clinton administration was seeking to craft a new security architecture in Europe that would help foster and fortify the continent’s fledging, post-Soviet democracies, including Russia. Some in the Clinton government, as well as Central European countries such as the Czech Republic and Poland, wanted to move quickly and start expanding NATO’s membership eastward. However, most Clinton officials reportedly did not, being wary that expansion would rankle Russian leaders at a fragile, transitional moment and detract from other U.S. foreign policy objectives, such as nuclear arms control.

Instead, Clinton chose to develop a new NATO initiative called the Partnership for Peace (PfP), which would be nonexclusive and open to all former Warsaw Pact members, as well as non-European countries. Seeing this non-membership framework as a compromise of sorts, in October 1993, U.S. diplomats proposed it to Yeltsin, who eagerly accepted. (Just days before, Yeltsin, with the Russian military’s support, forcefully put down an attempt by parliament to oust him.) NATO launched PfP at its annual summit in January 1994, and more than two dozen countries, including Georgia, Russia, and Ukraine, joined in the following months.

However, Clinton soon began speaking publicly [PDF] about expanding NATO’s membership, saying in Prague just days after the launch of PfP that “the question is no longer whether NATO will take on new members but when and how.” Yeltsin warned Western leaders at a conference in December of that year that “Europe, even before it has managed to shrug off the legacy of the Cold War, is risking encumbering itself with a cold peace.”

Clinton subsequently made efforts to allay Yeltsin’s concerns: pushing off enlargement until after the Russian leader was reelected in 1996, inviting Russia to join the Group of Seven, and establishing a formal, non-adversarial forum for Russia-NATO diplomacy. But analysts say that NATO’s expansion in the ensuing years would leave deep scars on the Russian psyche. “For many Russians, most importantly Vladimir Putin, the 1990s were a decade of humiliation, as the United States imposed its vision of order on Europe (including in Kosovo in 1999) while the Russians could do nothing but stand by and watch,” James Goldgeier, an expert on NATO-Russia relations, wrote for War on the Rocks.

The Russian government, led by Putin, continued to be wary of NATO expansion in the 2000s. Putin expressed doubts that the alliance, which grew its fastest in 2004, would be effective in tackling the security challenges of the day, including international terrorism and the conflict in Afghanistan. Many new members, particularly the Baltic countries, saw NATO membership as a shield against their former Soviet rulers.

In the years that followed, Putin grew increasingly outspoken in his displeasure at NATO’s inroads into Eastern Europe, saying at a high-profile speech in Munich in 2007 that “it is obvious that NATO expansion does not have any relation with the modernization of the alliance itself or with ensuring security in Europe. On the contrary, it represents a serious provocation that reduces the level of mutual trust.” In the summer following NATO’s 2008 Bucharest Summit, where NATO stated its intent to admit Georgia and Ukraine, Russia invaded the former. Six years later, as Kyiv stepped closer to an economic partnership with another Western bloc, the European Union, Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea.

What is Russia demanding of NATO and the United States today?

Russia has put forth two draft agreements that seek explicit, legally binding security guarantees from the United States and NATO, respectively:

Treaty with the United States. The draft treaty contains eight articles, some of which call for tight restrictions on U.S. and NATO political and military activities.

Article 4 calls for NATO to end its eastward expansion, specifically, deny future membership to ex-Soviet states, such as Ukraine. It would also ban the United States from establishing bases in or cooperating militarily with former Soviet states.
Article 5 would block both signatories from deploying military assets in areas outside their national borders that “could be perceived by the other party as a threat to its national security.” Heavy bombers and “surface warships of any type” shall refrain from deploying outside the party’s national airspace or territorial waters to areas where they could strike the other’s territory.
Article 6 calls for parties to confine their deployments of intermediate- and short-range, ground-launched missiles to their own territories, and only in areas where they could not strike the other’s territory.
Article 7 would block the parties from deploying nuclear weapons outside their respective territories and would require related nuclear weapons infrastructure in third-party countries to be dismantled.

Agreement with NATO. The draft agreement has nine articles, including several that call for dramatic military concessions from the transatlantic alliance.

Article 4 would effectively divide NATO’s Western and Eastern European membership. It would ban NATO countries that were members of the alliance as of 1997 (a grouping that excludes nearly all eastern members) from deploying military assets to “any of the other states of Europe” in excess of what those members had deployed by 1997. Such deployments could only take place “in exceptional cases” and with Russia’s consent.
Article 5 would forbid the parties from stationing intermediate- and short-range, ground-launched missiles in areas that could strike the other parties.
Article 6 would restrict NATO “from any further enlargement,” including admitting Ukraine.
Article 7 would ban NATO members from conducting any military activity in Ukraine, as well as in other Eastern European states and those in South Caucasus and Central Asia.

Many Western analysts and officials have said that several of Russia’s demands, such the ban on future NATO enlargement, are effectively nonstarters and that the Kremlin has proposed them in bad faith. Some fear Moscow’s demands are deliberately excessive, intended to be dismissed by Western powers and serve as a pretext for Russia to escalate its military activity in Ukraine, potentially by a broad invasion.

How are the United States and NATO supporting Ukraine?

The United States and NATO have said they remain committed to restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. They do not recognize Russia’s claims to Crimea, and have encouraged Russia and Ukraine to resolve the conflict in the country’s eastern Donbas region via the Minsk agreements [PDF]. Signed in 2014 and 2015 and brokered by France and Germany, these accords call for a cease-fire, a withdrawal of heavy weapons, Ukraine’s control over its border with Russia, and local elections and a special political status for certain areas of the region.

Meanwhile, Kyiv has affirmed its goal of eventually gaining NATO membership, and it holds yearly military exercises with the alliance, including the Sea Breeze and Rapid Trident drills. The U.S. military has provided Ukrainian forces with training and equipment, including sniper rifles, grenade launchers, night-vision gear, radars, Javelin anti-tank missiles, and patrol vessels. In 2020, Ukraine became one of just six so-called enhanhttps://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/why-nato-has-become-flash-point-russia-ukraineced opportunity partners, a special status given to NATO’s closet allies, such as Australia.

https://www.cfr.org/backgrounder/why-nato-has-become-flash-point-russia-ukraine

The West has a few bargaining chips to stop Russia from invading Ukraine

About 100,000 Russian troops have been spotted at the Ukrainian border.By Ellen Ioanes Jan 9, 2022, 4:40pm EST

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NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg gestures from behind a podium as he speaks at a press conference on January 7, 2022. — NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg speaks after a meeting of NATO foreign ministers on Russia-Ukraine tensions in Brussels, Belgium, on January 7, 2022.

Ahead of two crucial meetings this week, the United States and NATO allies are discussing a number of ways to deal with the deteriorating relationship between Russia and the West, and the looming prospect of another Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Although US and NATO leadership have both expressed a strong desire for a diplomatic path forward, more aggressive options to support Ukrainian sovereignty against Russian aggression, including major trade restrictions, are reportedly on the table.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has adopted an increasingly bellicose posture toward Europe and the West, particularly over the past several months. Among other actions, an increasing number of Russian troops — about 100,000 at present, according to the New York Times — have been stationed along Russia’s border with Ukraine, possibly in preparation for a major offensive.

The Biden administration and the Kremlin are scheduled to discuss the US response to Russian military action in Geneva, Switzerland, on Monday, and a larger conversation between NATO member countries and Russia is set for Wednesday in Brussels, Belgium. Further talks about Russia’s actions and proposed security demands are also set to take place in Vienna, Austria, with member nations of the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe.

After a virtual meeting Friday of foreign ministers from its member states, NATO promised a coherent response to protect Ukrainian sovereignty, and Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg insisted in a statement Friday that the alliance is committed to a diplomatic approach with Russia.

“Russia’s aggressive actions seriously undermine the security order in Europe,” he said. “NATO remains committed to our dual-track approach to Russia: strong deterrence and defense, combined with meaningful dialogue.”

But should NATO’s present tack — and next week’s talks — fail to deter Russia from action against Ukraine, Stoltenberg has signaled that NATO is prepared to pursue more aggressive options. Although Ukraine is not a member of NATO and thus the alliance is under no obligation to step in should Russia attack, Stoltenberg’s statements to the press show that he views Russia’s aggression in Ukraine as destabilizing to European security; and that should that security be threatened, there will be consequences for Russia.

“We have troops, we have forces,” Stoltenberg told reporters Friday, although he declined to discuss details. “We have the readiness. We have the plans to be able to defend, protect all allies, and we are constantly adapting, and also actually investing more now than we had done for many years in modernizing our military capabilities to make sure that we preserve peace in Europe.”

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken also warned that the US was “prepared to respond forcefully to further Russian aggression,” although it’s unclear exactly what form that response might take.

Sanctions are a well-trod path in the US-Russia foreign policy space, and other nations, including the United Kingdom, have indicated their willingness to increase economic pressure on Russia should upcoming talks fail to reach a diplomatic outcome.

Senior US officials told CNN’s Natasha Bertrand that the US is preparing economic blocks on Russia that would severely curtail the country’s ability to import goods like smartphones, aircraft, and car parts — damaging the Russian economy and putting it in the company of pariah nations like North Korea and Syria, which have similar severe trade restrictions.

As Alex Ward explained for Vox last year, previous sanctions have targeted mostly businesses, institutions, and individuals. But large-scale trade sanctions, which are reportedly now under consideration, would impact Russia on an entirely different level, preventing the import of common goods and technology from the US and partner nations.

The UK is also preparing to impose “high impact measures targeting the Russian financial sector and individuals” should Russia invade Ukraine, Reuters reported Thursday, and the European Union agreed in December to work in tandem with the US and UK to impose sanctions of its own.

Still, Russia has thus far presented an unmoving stance, with Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov telling Russian state media agency RIA that the Kremlin “will not make any concessions under pressure and in the course of threats that are constantly being formed by the Western participants of the upcoming talks.”

Russia continues to deny that it’s planning to invade Ukraine and insists that Ukraine, NATO, and the West are the aggressors in the present conflict, a stance that’s reflected in the security demands Russia sent out last month to NATO and US leadership. Among other things, Russia seeks to prevent Ukraine specifically, as well as other former Soviet republics like Georgia, from entering NATO — a stipulation that NATO leadership says absolutely won’t fly.

Blinken also said Sunday that key Russian demands from its draft documents last month are off the table, though reporting from NBC on Friday suggests that the US is considering a reduction of forces in Eastern Europe.

The Biden administration has denied that any cuts to troop deployments are being considered, but Blinken didn’t reject host Jake Tapper’s suggestion that repositioning heavy weaponry in Poland, moving missiles, or making changes to military exercises could be bargaining chips when he appeared on CNN’s State of the Union Sunday.

In Monday’s talks, the Biden administration will likely reassure Russia that it doesn’t plan to build missile systems in Ukraine, though it has defended US missile systems’ positioning in Romania and Poland. The administration has also promised NATO officials it won’t make unilateral decisions for the alliance, a diplomat from a NATO member state told Politico.

However, there could be room to negotiate over military drills on both sides, the escalation of which has contributed to increased tensions. NATO regularly conducts training exercises in the Baltic region and includes non-NATO states like Sweden and Finland in those exercises, which Russia sees as a threat; Russia, meanwhile, has been conducting larger and more frequent drills closer to NATO countries, and both nations have increased the frequency of nuclear-capable bomber sorties near Ukraine.

Russia-Western relations are at their lowest point in decades

The relationship between Russia and the West has been particularly contentious over the past few months, as the Ukraine crisis reaches a tipping point. Furthermore, Moscow’s support of Belarusian strongman Alexander Lukashenko in his quest to anger the EU by shuttling Middle Eastern migrants to his country’s border with Poland, and the recent deployment of Russian troops in Kazakhstan, have only inflamed tensions as Russia seems intent on cementing its sphere of influence in former Soviet states.

The public consensus among Western officials, including Blinken, is that while next week’s talks offer possibilities, the seriousness with which Russia is approaching them is unclear at best, as is the Kremlin’s commitment to any reciprocity.

After Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine and Russia agreed to — but never fully implemented — a peace agreement called the Minsk Agreement. Since then, continued conflict in eastern Ukraine has killed more than 14,000 people, as Vox’s Jen Kirby wrote in December, and helped push Ukraine, particularly under the leadership of President Volodymyr Zelensky, toward the West and NATO. Putin sees in that shift the potential for Ukraine to join the alliance — and therefore, a threat to Moscow.

Short of a full invasion of Ukraine, however, Putin’s desire to wield his power and remind the West that he still has leverage in the region could be another reason behind the troop buildup, and a tactic to get the US and NATO to negotiate with him.

But the path forward is murky for Western powers and alliances. For example, it’s still unclear how tighter sanctions against Russia might play out, given that previous measures in response to Russian aggression in Ukraine have done little to deter Putin.

Additionally, while the new sanctions proposals would represent a major escalation in Western efforts to deter Putin, it’s quite a gamble to imagine that those measures alone would be enough to deflect what appears to be significant, entrenched military buildup under the direction of an authoritarian leader whose motivations are arguably much more existential than merely the acquisition of territory.

As Alexander Motyl, an expert in Soviet and post-Soviet politics at Rutgers University Newark, told Kirby, “The problem is we don’t know what Putin wants, and this is really the bottom line.”

Any consequences for Russia’s actions are difficult to determine and implement, since Putin remains inscrutable, Motyl argued. “Is he testing? Is he invading? Is he teaching the Ukrainians a lesson? We don’t know. And so it’s hard to do anything, because we don’t know what [Putin] wants, and we don’t know how far he’s willing to go.”

https://www.vox.com/2022/1/9/22874719/nato-us-russia-ukraine-invasion-sanctions-meeting

NATO and Ukraine reaffirm commitment to technical cooperation

17 Jan. 2022 –
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Last updated: 17 Jan. 2022 14:37

The NATO Communications and Information Agency (NCI Agency) and Ukraine signed on 17 January 2022 a renewed Memorandum of Agreement to continue their work together on technology-related projects.

Ambassador Nataliia Galibarenko, Head of Mission of Ukraine to NATO and Ludwig Decamps, General Manager NATO Communications and Information Agency renew Memorandum of Agreement to collaborate on technology-related projects.

“We have successfully worked with Ukraine for several years, delivering key capabilities and exchanging knowledge,” said NCI Agency General Manager Ludwig Decamps. “Under this renewed agreement, we will deepen our collaboration with Ukraine to support them in modernizing their information technology and communications services, while identifying areas where training may be required for their personnel. Our experts stand ready to continue this critical partnership.”

Relations between NATO and Ukraine date back to the early 1990s. Cooperation has deepened over time and is mutually beneficial, with Ukraine actively contributing to NATO-led operations and missions.

Since the Agency’s Supervisory Board approved the first agreement in 2015, the Agency has consistently supported Ukraine on technology matters, primarily through the NATO-Ukraine Command, Control, Communication and Computers (C4) Trust Fund.

“The Memorandum signed today continues our cooperation established in 2015. With NATO’s support we plan to further introduce modern information technologies and services into the command and control system of the Armed Forces of Ukraine,” said Ambassador Nataliia Galibarenko, Head of Mission of Ukraine to NATO.

Projects include an effort to deliver secure communications equipment to Ukraine in December 2018, which are still in use today.

The NATO-Ukraine Regional Airspace Security Programme (RASP) was also developed under this agreement, to provide early notification and coordination on airspace threats. The system includes an integrated IP phone system, and offers tools to operators to help them interact with each other, such as chat, geographical pointers and highlighting of an aircraft track. The units are connected through a dedicated network separate from the Internet.

Work with Ukraine also includes a Knowledge Sharing Initiative where Agency subject matter experts share their knowledge of NATO practices in developing capabilities in the Command, Control, Communications and Computers (C4) domain.

The Knowledge Sharing Initiative includes training, workshops and subject matter expertise to support Ukraine in modernizing its defence capabilities.

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_190906.htm

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By MARK NICOL DEFENCE EDITOR FOR THE DAILY MAIL

Story 1: Highlights of President Biden ‘s Press Conference — Videos —

Three more years of this? | CARTOON | Las Vegas Review-Journal

Story 2: Russia Invasion of Ukraine — Soon — Or Latter — Videos

Confusion over NATO’s Russia stance as Biden celebrates one year in office | DW News

Britain could send MORE weapons to Ukraine as Defence Secretary Ben Wallace pledges support amid fears over imminent Russian invasion

Britain is open to sending weapons to Ukraine to thwart any Russian invasion
The UK may add to the 2,000 anti-tank missile launchers already sent this week
Comes as Russia amassed estimated 127,000 troops at the border with Ukraine
Britain’s Ministry of Defence fears large-scale warfare causing high death tolls

PUBLISHED: 17:02 EST, 19 January 2022 | UPDATED: 17:24 EST, 19 January 2022

Britain is open to sending more weapons to Ukraine to try to thwart any Russian invasion, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said last night.

He told the Daily Mail the UK may add to the 2,000 anti-tank missile launchers sent this week.

It comes as Russia has amassed an estimated 127,000 troops at the border with Ukraine along with tanks and other weapons in apparent preparation for an invasion. Britain is open to sending more weapons to Ukraine to try to thwart any Russian invasion, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said last night. Pictured: Ukrainian soldiers are seen along the frontline near the town of Zolote +13View gallery

Britain is open to sending more weapons to Ukraine to try to thwart any Russian invasion, Defence Secretary Ben Wallace said last night. Pictured: Ukrainian soldiers are seen along the frontline near the town of Zolote Ukraine's Defense Ministry confirms it has already received a shipment of 'light anti-tank weapons' provided by UK +13View gallery

Ukraine’s Defense Ministry confirms it has already received a shipment of ‘light anti-tank weapons’ provided by UK It comes as Russia has amassed an estimated 127,000 troops at the border with Ukraine along with tanks and other weapons in apparent preparation for an invasion +13View gallery

It comes as Russia has amassed an estimated 127,000 troops at the border with Ukraine along with tanks and other weapons in apparent preparation for an invasion

In an exclusive interview, Mr Wallace said: ‘I will keep the question of sending more defensive weapons to Ukraine under close review. I do not rule anything out within helping Ukraine deliver self-defence.https://imasdk.googleapis.com/js/core/bridge3.495.1_en.html#goog_1362042877

‘The UK is determined to stand by Ukraine, its sovereignty and our mutual interests. We have been helping them build defensive capacity for eight years now and we decided to step up that assistance in light of Russian aggression. Britain stands by its allies.’

Russia last night accused the UK of fuelling tensions in the region with the weapons deployment. Moscow’s embassy in London tweeted: ‘It is crystal clear that UK shipment of lethal weapons to Ukraine will only fuel the crisis and increase tensions.’+13View gallery

A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea on Tuesday 18 January +13View gallery

A convoy of Russian armored vehicles moves along a highway in Crimea on Tuesday 18 January Ukrainian soldiers stand in a trench near the front line on January 17, in the village of New York, formerly known as Novhorodske, Ukraine +13View gallery

Ukrainian soldiers stand in a trench near the front line on January 17, in the village of New York, formerly known as Novhorodske, Ukraine Snipers started the shooting training at the Kadamovsky training ground in the Rostov region, Russia +13View gallery

Snipers started the shooting training at the Kadamovsky training ground in the Rostov region, Russia

Ukraine yesterday demanded economic sanctions against Russia before any invasion rather than afterwards. Defence minister Oleksii Reznikov insisted he wanted action now against Russian leader Vladimir Putin’s regime to avoid ‘a lot of blood’ in his country.

He told the BBC’s Hardtalk: ‘Our partners can do more – like sanctions before the invasion, not after. Let’s show the Kremlin you understand the threat and how the invasion can be made very expensive for them.’

Meanwhile, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has flown to Kiev for crisis talks with Ukrainian officials, warned Russia could attack ‘at very short notice’.

The possibility that Britain could send more arms will be welcomed by the Ukrainian government which described this week’s delivery by the RAF as a ‘necessary first step’. Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine, Anatolii Petrenko (L) attends the delivery of light, anti-armor, defensive weapon systems, supplied by the UK +13View gallery

Deputy Minister of Defence of Ukraine, Anatolii Petrenko (L) attends the delivery of light, anti-armor, defensive weapon systems, supplied by the UKWeapons consigned by the United Kingdom arrive in UkraineLoaded: 0%Progress: 0%0:00PreviousPlaySkipMuteCurrent Time0:00/Duration Time0:52FullscreenNeed Text

Further UK deliveries may convince other Western governments to boost their help.

The US has already sent missiles and heavily-armed patrol boats while Turkey has sold Ukraine drones equipped with guided missiles. Sweden is providing medical training to Ukrainian troops.

The Mail can also reveal that British military trainers being sent to Ukraine to instruct its troops on how to use the anti-tank weapons will be drawn from the newly formed Ranger Regiment.

The 800-strong unit was established last year to provide training for the UK’s allies and to fight beside them in certain situations. A member of the 503Ã¢d Naval Infantry Battalion stationed in Donbas, Ukraine on January 18, 2022 +13View gallery

A member of the 503Ã¢d Naval Infantry Battalion stationed in Donbas, Ukraine on January 18, 2022 British military trainers being sent to Ukraine to instruct its troops on how to use the anti-tank weapons will be drawn from the newly formed Ranger Regiment +13View gallery

British military trainers being sent to Ukraine to instruct its troops on how to use the anti-tank weapons will be drawn from the newly formed Ranger Regiment It had been thought Mr Putin would choose the 'simple option' of sending troops into the Donbass region in south-eastern Ukraine and then negotiate for it to become an independent state, providing a buffer between pro-western Ukraine and Russia +13View gallery

It had been thought Mr Putin would choose the ‘simple option’ of sending troops into the Donbass region in south-eastern Ukraine and then negotiate for it to become an independent state, providing a buffer between pro-western Ukraine and Russia Members of the 503Ã¢d Naval Infantry Battalion relax and prepare lunch while stationed in Donbas, Ukraine on January 18, 2022 +13View gallery

Members of the 503Ã¢d Naval Infantry Battalion relax and prepare lunch while stationed in Donbas, Ukraine on January 18, 2022

But as Nato has said there will be no direct military response to a Russian invasion, the Rangers’ assistance will be restricted to a training package expected to last a few weeks before they head home.

Ukraine released intelligence reports yesterday suggesting Russia had bolstered the size of its forces on the border to 127,000.

Officials said they believed Russia had ‘almost completed’ the build-up of soldiers and hardware required to mount an invasion.

Moscow denies it plans to launch an attack but has pressed the US for security guarantees. It is wary of pro-Western Ukraine’s desire to join the EU and has demanded a withdrawal of Western troops from former Soviet republics.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10420277/Britain-send-weapons-Ukraine-Defence-Secretary-Ben-Wallace-pledges-support.html

Germany, Canada extends support to Ukraine amid tensions with Russia | World English News

Russian invasion of Ukraine — Videos

Is Putin going to invade Ukraine?

Vladimir Putin. — “There’s something we don’t know about Putin’s calculation here,” says scholar Alexandra M. Vacroux about the Russian leader, pictured.Via AP

Russia scholar sorts through possible scenarios amid Moscow-U.S. tension

BY Christina PazzaneseHarvard Staff Writer

DATEJanuary 18, 2022SHARE

Concerns over Russia’s intentions in Ukraine mounted after talks in Geneva between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO security alliance ended last week without success. Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops and moved heavy weapons along its border with Ukraine in recent weeks and has begun positioning forces along the Belarus-Ukraine border. The Pentagon accused Moscow of deploying armed saboteurs into Eastern Ukraine to start violence as a pretext for moving its troops into the country, a tactic Russia used in 2014 during its invasion and occupation of the Crimean Peninsula. The Russians said they would withdraw if NATO agreed to a series of security measures, including permanently banning Ukraine from the Western military alliance, a proposal that has been flatly refused. Secretary of State Antony Blinken ’84 will meet with Russian foreign minister, Sergey Lavrov, Friday in an attempt to find a resolution to the standoff.

The Gazette spoke with Alexandra M. Vacroux, executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies and lecturer on government at Harvard, about why Russia appears to be readying for a military confrontation with Ukraine and what nonmilitary tools, if any, the U.S. and NATO have to prevent it. Interview has been edited for clarity and length.

Q&A

Alexandra M. Vacroux

GAZETTE: What is Russian President Vladimir Putin up to? Is Russia going to invade Ukraine and if so, why?

VACROUX: The Russians have been saying for a long time — and it’s the subject of a lot of academic debate — that the Americans and NATO promised there wasn’t going to be expansion to the east beyond the borders of the former East Germany at the end of the Cold War. The Russians have been fixated on this idea. When Russians talk about red lines, and “the Warsaw Pact was always there for a reason,” it assumes that countries themselves don’t get to choose what alliance they’re going to belong to, and it assumes that the U.S. was deliberately trying to keep Russia weakened and without its traditional buffer of countries.

So, the Russians see this is as unfinished business from the ’90s after the Soviet Union collapsed. The other thing is that Russia has felt like it’s encircled by hostile powers for 400, 500 years, 1,000 years. Whenever Russia wasn’t expanding it was being invaded by Turks and the French and the Swedes and the Mongols. So, they feel they need a belt of countries around them to protect them from marauders crossing the steppe. Those buffer countries include Georgia and Ukraine. That’s one of the justifications Russia gave to go to war with Georgia in 2008 — that Georgia was getting too close to the West and that was a red line. The U.S. and NATO’s position has always been that Russia doesn’t get to decide who joins an alliance. It’s the countries themselves that decide. And Russia doesn’t accept that.

Alexandra M. Vacroux. — Alexandra M. Vacroux is executive director of the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies.Photo by Sarah Failla

The Russians gamble that they’re going to mass troops on the Russian border with Ukraine, which they’ve done once before [last year] and then they came to the table and said, “We have these draft treaties for NATO and the U.S., and this is what we want: We don’t want countries that are part of the former Soviet Union to join NATO, and we would like to have a discussion about how you’re going to pull back from our borders.” These draft treaties were complete nonstarters.

Last week the U.S. and NATO said, “There are some points here that we can talk about,” and the Russians said, “This is not a menu; this is a package. Take it or leave it.” NATO and the U.S. said, “Of course, we’re not going to take it.” I don’t know if it was obvious to the Russians that this was going to happen, or if they had convinced themselves that there is a way in which this show of force is going to produce different results than before. One of the reasons we don’t know that is because in an authoritarian regime like Putin’s, there’s a lot of group-speak, if not groupthink. Are there debates happening right now over in Moscow over whether the Russian version of the world order is something that can come into being? Or is it just that this is what they want, and they’ve convinced themselves that it’s necessary, it’s desirable, it’s possible, and therefore, we just have to apply the right degree of pressure? So that’s the first part of it.

The second thing is that we don’t know if the Russians are really going to invade Ukraine. They’ve got the equipment there. There’s a school of thought that says that the Russians think once they have a mass incursion into eastern Ukraine, the population of Ukraine is going to realize that President Volodymyr Zelensky has totally failed them and will topple his government. And then it’s not going to be an invasion because people are going to be glad that the Zelensky government has fallen. I have no idea if people are believing that. It seems completely fanciful and unrealistic. But it could be that the Kremlin has convinced themselves that Zelensky is incredibly unpopular, and it’s not going to take much to topple him.“Nobody really wants to get into exchanging cyberattacks because we don’t know how that story ends. It’s like an arms race without arms control.”

GAZETTE: Since the Geneva negotiations ended, Putin has threatened a full break in diplomatic relations if the U.S. tries to further sanction Russia. Computers belonging to the Ukrainian government were hacked and infected with malware by Russia, according to Ukrainian officials. Broadly, what do these and other threats Russia has issued tell you about Putin’s intentions or state of mind?

VACROUX: Putin, in general, has a very aggressive style, so it doesn’t surprise me that he says, “If you don’t agree with what I want, I’m going to do this and this and this.” The arrest of the Russia-based REvil hacking group [that attacked several Western targets for ransom] was obviously something they could have done at any time. They’ve done it now just to say, “We can be helpful when we want to be. Watch this.” It’s part of the way the Russians are trying to make their position as strong as possible and show that they can threaten the West or the United States or NATO in a number of different ways. What we’re getting now is the list of the different ways in which they can be threatening.

The U.S. has said one of the ways that we would respond is by potentially banning Russia from the SWIFT financial payment system. That would be a big deal. That would basically make it very difficult for Russia to do any international transaction. That has potentially very serious ramifications in the short term. In the medium and long term, there would be alternatives to SWIFT that would be found, which is what Iran has done, and it’s probably not good for the U.S. if alternative systems run by the Chinese, for example, turned out to be functional as far as financial payments are concerned.

The Russians now have a pretty blasé attitude toward Western sanctions. There are two problems. Once they’re applied, you have to continually tighten sanctions for them to remain as effective because people find workarounds. The second problem is that sanctions approved by Congress can only be lifted by an act of Congress, which the Russians don’t expect to happen. The example the Russians use is the Jackson-Vanik amendment, which was put in place in 1974 because the Soviet Union wasn’t allowing Jews to emigrate. It was lifted only in 2012, decades after Jews were being allowed to emigrate. Once those sanctions are put in place, they’re basically locked in. There’s no incentive for Russia to try to do something to get them lifted because they’re almost impossible to lift.“Preventing Putin’s inner circle from traveling to the West may be awkward and embarrassing, but at this point, that threat is not going to stop him.”

GAZETTE: What sanctions or punishment does Putin fear?

VACROUX: I don’t think he’s afraid of punishment. The sanctions for the past three or four years, at least, it’s been very clear to all the Russian oligarchs that they’re supposed to be coming back home. They’re supposed to be educating their kids in Russia, and they’re supposed to be leaving their assets in Russia. Now some of them have found ways to have real estate in Miami or whatever, but it’s definitely become less acceptable, for example, to have your kids going to college in the U.S. than it used to be. So there have been ways in which that inner circle has been squeezed, and it frankly doesn’t make a difference. Preventing Putin’s inner circle from traveling to the West may be awkward and embarrassing, but at this point, that threat is not going to stop him.

GAZETTE: Although President Zelensky has been lobbying to join NATO, Ukraine is not a member, and it doesn’t appear there was much support for it to join even before this incident. If Putin’s great fear is the further encroachment of NATO, is this aggression now pushing NATO to take up Ukraine’s defense?

VACROUX: That’s exactly what everyone is asking. They’re not now, and there’s very little prospect of them joining in the near future in part because of this territorial dispute in the east. No one is going to take a country with a territorial dispute with Russia into NATO. That’s the problem with Georgia, also. Because if Article V requires that you defend — no one is going to take anybody with a territorial dispute. It’s already obvious that Ukraine is not on the cusp of joining NATO by a long shot. So that brings us back to why is this happening now? One of the theories is that this is Putin seeing unfinished business he needs to take care of before he steps down or his term ends. I don’t love that because it’s so hypothetical and so skeptical. What is he going to gain by doing this? Especially since the Russians have made it clear — it’s not like they want Ukraine. That area of eastern Ukraine is an economic disaster. And if Ukraine is further split between pro-Russian and pro-Ukrainian, it means that they have less influence there than they did before, when they could convince the whole country sometimes to be more pro East. There’s something we don’t know about Putin’s calculation here because what we do know doesn’t make sense.

GAZETTE:What signs will you be looking for in the coming days to gauge whether an invasion will be averted or if tensions escalate even further?

VACROUX: A second round of talks, high-level talks. I think that’s essential — to keep the Russians at the table and to keep having a dialogue, even though it doesn’t seem to have been that productive right now. That can always change. Negotiations tend to have a long, frustrating period. In a way, that’s already giving something to Russia, because Russia is in the news; it’s on the world stage; Putin is talking with Biden. All of these things are extremely important to Putin. So, on the one hand, you could say that he’s getting some concessions because we’re coming to the table, but on the other hand, he’s not invading Ukraine. So that is very important. I would also keep an eye on the cyber situation. I would expect some kind of cyberattack by the Russians, perhaps demonstrating what they could do in Ukraine. It will be interesting to see if there’s any kind of Western response. Nobody really wants to get into exchanging cyberattacks because we don’t know how that story ends. It’s like an arms race without arms control. It gets really ugly. If you turn off power grids, people start dying in hospitals. It’s just a really bad way to go.https://news.harvard.edu/gazette/story/2022/01/is-putin-going-to-invade-ukraine/

Russia Thins Out Its Embassy in Ukraine, a Possible Clue to Putin’s Next Move

The slow evacuation may be part propaganda, part preparation for a conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.

The Russian Embassy in Kyiv, Ukraine, in April.Credit…Andrei Ratmirov/TASS via Getty Images

By Michael Schwirtz and David E. SangerJan. 17, 2022

KYIV, Ukraine — The week before intensive diplomatic meetings began over the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border, American and Ukrainian officials watched from afar as Russia began emptying out its embassy in Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital.

On Jan. 5, 18 people — mostly the children and wives of Russian diplomats — boarded buses and embarked on a 15-hour drive home to Moscow, according to a senior Ukrainian security official.

About 30 more followed in the next few days, from Kyiv and a consulate in Lviv, in western Ukraine. Diplomats at two other Russian consulates have been told to prepare to leave Ukraine, the security official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity to discuss national security matters.

How to interpret the evacuation has become part of the mystery of divining the next play by President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia. Thinning out the Russian Embassy may be part propaganda, part preparation for a looming conflict or part feint, Ukrainian and U.S. officials say. It could be all three.

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Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Tuesday that its embassy in Kyiv was functioning normally despite what it said were threats against Russian diplomats and their families.

“Yet again, despite the provocations and the aggressive behavior of local radicals, I repeat that our missions are operating as usual,” said the ministry’s spokeswoman, Maria V. Zakharova.

In recent days, the slow departures — which the Russians most likely knew that the Americans and the Ukrainians would see — have become part of the puzzle of what happens next. They are a more ominous data point, in addition to cyberattacks on Ukrainian ministries last week, and reports from Microsoft and the U.S. government that far more destructive malware has been planted in Ukrainian networks but not activated.

Enormous train convoys loaded with tanks, missiles and troops continue to push west through Russia, apparently heading for the Ukrainian border. Aleksandr G. Lukashenko, the authoritarian leader of Belarus, announced on Monday that Russian forces and equipment had begun arriving in his country for a joint military exercise that would be held in two places: on Belarus’s western edge, near Poland and Lithuania, two NATO countries; and along the Ukrainian border, which could prove another pathway for invasion.

The exercise has been given a very American-sounding name: Allied Resolve. But in Kyiv, Ukrainian officials fully expect any Russian troops deployed to Belarus for the exercises to remain in place indefinitely, leaving Ukraine open to attack from the north, the east and the south.

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“We’ll be fully surrounded by equal forces,” the senior Ukrainian security official said.

In Washington, U.S. officials say they still assess that Mr. Putin has not yet made a decision to invade. They describe him as more a tactician than a grand strategist, and they believe that he is constantly weighing a host of different factors. Among them is how well he could weather the threatened sanctions on his banks and industry, and whether his demands that Ukraine stop veering toward NATO — and that NATO stop spreading toward Russia — are receiving enough attention.

But the U.S. officials say Mr. Putin may also have concluded that with the United States and other countries arming Ukraine, his military advantage is at risk of slipping away. Britain’s defense secretary, Ben Wallace, announced in an address to Parliament on Monday that the country would begin providing Ukraine with light, anti-armor defensive weapons. Mr. Putin may become tempted to act sooner rather than later.

U.S. officials saw Russia’s embassy evacuations coming. “We have information that indicates the Russian government was preparing to evacuate their family members from the Russian Embassy in Ukraine in late December and early January,” a U.S. official said in a statement.

Ukrainian officials say they saw the Russians leave.

But that leaves open the question of what, if anything, the Russians were signaling.

It is possible they were trying to bolster the case that the United States and its Western allies should take seriously their demands that Ukraine can never join NATO, and that troops, nuclear weapons and other heavy weaponry must be removed from former Warsaw Pact states, like Poland, that were once allied with the Soviet Union.

It could also be that the Russians were trying to indicate that an attack was brewing, though there were no other signals. In fact, the buildup of Russian troops on the Ukrainian border is not increasing at a rate that Pentagon officials expected a month ago.

The latest U.S. estimates are that about 60 battalion tactical groups, known as B.T.G.s and each with an average of 800 soldiers, are now in place at the border with Ukraine. Combined with other local forces, the Russians have about 77,000 troops at the border, with more on the way. Others put the figure at closer to 100,000 — much depends on how different forces are counted — but that is well short of the Pentagon’s estimate more than a month ago that the total number could rise to 175,000.

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U.S. and European intelligence and military officials say Mr. Putin may be waiting for the ground to freeze, making it easier to get heavy equipment over the border. Or he may be building up slowly, for diplomatic advantage, as he awaits a written reply from the Biden administration and NATO to his demands that they roll back NATO’s military posture to what it was 15 years ago — much farther from Russia’s borders.

While U.S. officials still believe Mr. Putin is undecided about his next move, officials in Kyiv are assessing what an attack may look like, if it happens. It could come in the form of a full-on invasion, the Ukrainian security official said. Or Russia could launch a cyberattack on the Ukrainian energy grid — far larger than the ones conducted in 2015 and 2016 — combined with military escalation in Ukraine’s east, where Russian-backed separatist forces remain deeply entrenched.

No one but the leaders in the Kremlin seem to know for sure how the next days and weeks might play out.

Understand the Escalating Tensions Over Ukraine

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A brewing conflict. Antagonism between Ukraine and Russia has been simmering since 2014, when the Russian military crossed into Ukrainian territory, annexing Crimea and whipping up a rebellion in the east. A tenuous cease-fire was reached in 2015, but peace has been elusive.

A spike in hostilities. Russia has recently been building up forces near its border with Ukraine, and the Kremlin’s rhetoric toward its neighbor has hardened. Concern grew in late October, when Ukraine used an armed drone to attack a howitzer operated by Russian-backed separatists.

Ominous warnings. Russia called the strike a destabilizing act that violated the cease-fire agreement, raising fears of a new intervention in Ukraine that could draw the United States and Europe into a new phase of the conflict.

The Kremlin’s position. President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, who has increasingly portrayed NATO’s eastward expansion as an existential threat to his country, said that Moscow’s military buildup was a response to Ukraine’s deepening partnership with the alliance.

Rising tension. Western countries have tried to maintain a dialogue with Moscow. But administration officials recently warned that the U.S. could throw its weight behind a Ukrainian insurgency should Russia invade.

Against this backdrop, a senior delegation of U.S. senators arrived in Kyiv on Monday. Their trip followed a visit to Kyiv last Wednesday by the C.I.A. director, William J. Burns, who consulted with intelligence officials and met with Mr. Zelensky to discuss efforts to de-escalate tensions with Moscow, a U.S. official said. Mr. Burns’s trip was reported earlier by CNN.

The senators’ visit was a bipartisan show of support from Ukraine’s most powerful ally, even if they brought few specific proposals for staving off a Russian attack.

“Russia’s actions in eastern Ukraine and Crimea, and the actions that they are planning today, represent the most serious assault on the post-World War II order in our lifetime,” Senator Christopher S. Murphy, a Connecticut Democrat who sits on the Foreign Relations Committee, said at a news conference in Kyiv.

Russia annexed the Crimean Peninsula in 2014 and instigated a violent separatist uprising that effectively cleaved away two Ukrainian provinces. More than 13,000 people were killed in the fighting.

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At the news conference, Mr. Murphy said he hoped legislation that outlines punishing sanctions against Russia’s leadership, including Mr. Putin, would reach President Biden’s desk before any Russian action and possibly help deter it. In a meeting with the senators late Monday, President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine urged them to impose sanctions quickly “to counter the aggression” from Russia.

The senators’ pledges to defend democracy and vanquish tyranny seemed a throwback to the Cold War. Indeed, observers have argued that Mr. Putin’s threats against Ukraine are rooted in a desire to reconstitute a Moscow-led Eastern bloc reminiscent of Soviet times.

Similarly, Mr. Lukashenko, the Belarusian leader who is close to Mr. Putin, made his own argument that the Russians were responding to the Americans.

“What are the Americans doing here?” Mr. Lukashenko said. “There are these hotheads who are calling for war.”

It is possibly in that spirit that Russian troops will begin military exercises in Belarus next month. Security officials fear that the exercises could become a pretext for long-term deployment of Russian forces in the former Soviet republic, which shares a lengthy western border with the European Union and NATO.

Mr. Lukashenko has pledged to follow Mr. Putin’s lead on any action in Ukraine.

Julian E. Barnes and Anton Troianovski contributed reporting.

What Russia might do in Ukraine: 5 scenarios

While it is impossible to predict what Russian President Vladimir Putin has planned, any decision may not be as black-and-white as “to invade or not to invade.”

By LUKE COFFEYon December 09, 2021 at 9:22 AM

Ukrainian sea border security soldiers man a checkpoint at the Mariupol Port as Ukraine’s navy mobilises on the Azov Sea on November 28, 2018 in Mariupol, Ukraine. (Photo by Martyn Aim/Getty Images)

With Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s eastern border, US and NATO officials are watching nervously what Russian President Vladimir Putin might do next. Will he heed US warnings not to further invade the former Soviet state? Or is a new, widespread bloody offensive for territory looming? In this op-ed, the Heritage Foundation’s Luke Coffey argues that question is an oversimplification, and Putin has many more options on the table.

Ukraine is at a tipping point, and its ongoing national struggle will determine whether its future geopolitical orientation tilts toward the West or Moscow. The outcome will have long-term implications for the transatlantic community and the notion of national sovereignty.

Since 2014, Russia has illegally occupied almost 5% of Ukraine’s landmass and more than half of its coastline. In eastern Ukraine, Russia and Russian-backed separatists continue to propagate a war that has resulted in more than 13,000 lives lost and 30,000 wounded, heavily damaging the Ukrainian economy and slowing Ukraine’s progress toward deepening ties with the West.

Now, Russia is raising tensions again. For the second time in a year, Russia has conducted a large-scale military mobilization along Ukraine’s borders. As many as 175,000 Russian troops are poised to attack at a moment’s notice.

While it is impossible to predict what Russian President Vladimir Putin has planned — and US officials say they don’t know what he’s thinking — any decision may not be as black-and-white as “to invade or not to invade.” The US must be prepared to respond not just to an actual mass offensive as most feared, but a range of scenarios in which the Russians exert pressure in other ways. Some possibilities include:

The non-kinetic scenario: Russia uses the military buildup to try to extract concessions from the West on NATO enlargement. Russia’s strategic goal here is to keep Ukraine distanced from organizations like NATO and the European Union. Russia would also benefit from the long-term integration of Ukraine into Moscow-backed groups like the Collective Security Treaty Organization or the Eurasian Economic Union.

The most effective way for Russia to achieve this goal is by keeping the conflict in eastern Ukraine “frozen”—meaning that the major fighting stops, but localized fighting remains without a conclusive end to the conflict. That means using the troops on the border as political leverage, not as actual invaders.

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A limited offensive, to entrench -Russian-backed separatists: A plausible scenario, assuming a lack of US and European resolve, is that Moscow helps the separatists consolidate gains in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions to create a political entity that functions more like a viable state. This would involve the capture of major communication and transit nodes (such as the city and port of Mariupol) and the Luhansk power plant, all of which are under Ukrainian government control. While this could be done in a piecemeal manner, such a move would also require the complete abandonment of any notion of a cease-fire.

More aggressive push for a land bridge to Crimea: Currently, the Russian Federation is connected to Crimea only by a newly built bridge across the Kerch Strait. Ukraine has also blocked Crimea’s main source of fresh water. Connecting Russia to Crimea along the coast would alleviate some of Russia’s logistical challenges, especially as it pertains to fresh water, while turning the Sea of Azov into a Russian lake. However, this would require a sizeable military force breaking through strongly fortified positions along the frontlines of the Donbas and the capture of Mariupol, Ukraine’s 10th largest city.

Large offensive to capture major cities: The most aggressive scenario could involve Moscow’s attempting to re-establish control of the Novorossiya region of imperial times in southern Ukraine. This would create a land bridge between Russia and Crimea, eventually linking up with the Russian-occupied Transnistria region of Moldova. This would require a large-scale mobilization of Russian forces sufficient to take over Odesa (Ukraine’s third-largest city) as well as Mariupol. If successful, this would fundamentally change the geopolitical and security landscape in Eastern Europe in a way not seen since World War II.

A wildcard scenario: Russia stirs political problems in Ukraine’s Budjak region in the Odesa Oblast. The main goal here would be to manufacture a local political crisis that causes problems for the central government in Kyiv. Moscow attempted this a few years ago (see the so-called National Council of Bessarabia). Budjak is only connected to rest of Ukraine by one regional road. Bordering Budjak is Moldova’s autonomous Gagauzia region. This ethnically Turkic, Orthodox Christian, and Russian speaking region has close links to Moscow and is pro-Russian. Domination of Budjak, in addition to Russia’s military presence in Transnistria, would put Moscow in control of a sizeable stretch of Ukraine’s western border. This would also threaten the stability of Odesa.

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It should be noted that any scenario involving conventional military operations would also include sophisticated cyberattacks, effective disinformation campaigns to undermine local and international support for Ukraine’s government, and the activation of “little green men” and other political antagonists to subvert local and national government institutions as was done in Crimea in 2014.

As for a timeline regarding any Russian military operation, that’s anyone’s guess. However, the following should be kept in mind: the ground in eastern Ukraine will be suitably frozen (advantageous to offensive operations and problematic for defenders) in early 2022; the Orthodox Christmas is on January 7, and the international community’s attention will be on 2022 Winter Olympics in Beijing starting February 4. Russia invaded Georgia during the opening ceremony of the 2008 Beijing Summer Olympics. Also, the Volga-Don Canal, that connects the Sea of Azov with the Caspian Sea, will freeze over in the coming weeks making it inoperable. Any Russian amphibious assault would most likely require ships from Russia’s Caspian Flotilla using the Volga-Don Canal.

In all of these scenarios, Russia is the aggressor, and Ukraine is the victim. That’s the way it has been since the Russian invasion of 2014.

Modern Ukraine represents the idea that each country has the sovereign ability to determine its own path and to decide with whom it has relations, and how and by whom it is governed. No outside actor (in this case, Russia) should have a veto on membership or closer relations with organizations like NATO. It is in America’s interest that Ukraine remains independent, sovereign and free to choose its own destiny. The US must be ready for whatever comes next.

Luke Coffey is the director of The Heritage Foundation’s Allison Center for Foreign Policy Studies.

https://breakingdefense.com/2021/12/what-russia-might-do-in-ukraine-5-scenarios/

4 things Russia wants right now

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Updated January 13, 20221:39 PM ET

CHARLES MAYNES

Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and President Biden shake hands during their meeting in Geneva, Switzerland, June 16, 2021. Russia, the United States and its NATO allies are meeting this week for negotiations focused on Moscow’s demand for Western security guarantees and Western concerns about a recent buildup of Russian troops near Ukraine.Alexander Zemlianichenko/Pool, AP

MOSCOW — First U.S. and Russian diplomats faced off in Geneva. Then NATO received a Russian delegation in Brussels. Finally, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe sponsored talks in Vienna Thursday.

Russia courted all this attention by massing some 100,000 troops near its border with Ukraine, raising fears of a Russian invasion. Analysts read Russia’s buildup as an attempt to pressure the U.S. and its European allies into concessions on a series of far-reaching “security guarantees” sought by Moscow.

What does Russia want and why is it so hard for the U.S. to meet Moscow partway? Here’s a guide.

1. Russia wants a guarantee Ukraine can never join NATO

Russia’s main demand is a commitment from NATO to end its further expansion into former Soviet republics — especially Ukraine. Russia wants NATO to rescind a 2008 promise that Ukraine could someday join the defense alliance. Many observers see it as a distant prospect that Ukraine could join NATO because it doesn’t meet membership requirements. But Moscow doesn’t see it that way. “We don’t trust the other side,” Russia’s chief negotiator, Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov, said after bilateral talks with the U.S. finished Monday. “We need ironclad, waterproof, bulletproof, legally binding guarantees. Not assurances. Not safeguards. Guarantees. With all the words — ‘shall, must’ — everything that should be put in.”Article continues after sponsor message

Russia’s reasoning: President Vladimir Putin views Ukraine as an extension of what he calls “historical Russia” — a part of the Russian Empire and Soviet Union, and within Moscow’s “sphere of influence” today. The threat of Ukraine’s westward turn after a street revolution ousted the country’s pro-Russian president in 2014 was the driving force behind Russia’s annexation of Crimea later that year. Ukraine’s desire to join the Western alliance also led to Russia’s sponsorship of separatists in the country’s eastern Donbas region — in effect sabotaging its path to membership by fueling a civil war.

NATO’s counter: The U.S. argues that countries have a right to choose their own alliances and NATO has a long-standing “open door policy” for potential membership. “NATO has never expanded through force or coercion or subversion. It is countries’ sovereign choice to choose to come to NATO and say they want to join,” Deputy Secretary of State Wendy Sherman said Wednesday after a meeting between Russian and NATO officials in Brussels. Russia’s actions are making the idea of NATO membership more appealing to Ukrainians, according to opinion polls. It is unlikely, however, that Ukraine will meet the requirements anytime soon.

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg (center) and Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Alexander Grushko arrive for the NATO-Russia Council at NATO headquarters, in Brussels, Wednesday. Senior NATO and Russian officials met to try to bridge differences over the future of Ukraine.Olivier Hoslet/Pool photo via AP

2. Russia wants NATO arms out of Eastern Europe

The draft proposals on security that Russia sent to Western powers in December would ban NATO from deploying its weapons and forces in countries in Central and Eastern Europe that joined the alliance after 1997. In effect, that would downgrade membership for Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Czech Republic, Slovakia, Hungary, Romania, Slovenia, Croatia, Montenegro, Albania, North Macedonia and Bulgaria to symbolic status at best.

Russia’s reasoning: Moscow sees NATO’s addition of former communist countries in Eastern and Central Europe beginning in 1997 as violating a core promise by the United States when the Soviet army peacefully withdrew from Eastern Europe after the fall of the Berlin Wall. In Putin’s view, the West took advantage of Russian weakness in expanding the alliance over multiple Russian objections. “And where is it written down on paper?” recalled Putin in recounting NATO’s decisions to expand eastward in subsequent years. “They would say to us. ‘It’s not on paper? Well then get lost along with your concerns.’ And that’s the way it’s been year after year.” Now Putin appears to be acting as if Russia is in a position to dictate new terms — and rewrite the story of the end of the Cold War.

NATO’s counter: U.S. officials have made clear they believe even Russia knows this demand is unrealistic. Acceding to Russia’s proposal would mean redrawing the map of Europe after the Cold War and placing Moscow’s security demands above the concerns of whole swaths of Europe that were once under Russian Soviet control. Western officials also contest the idea the alliance promised not to expand and say it was Russian actions that led NATO to beef up deployments in the new member states. “NATO never even had any forces on its eastern edge because we didn’t feel the need to have troops close to Russia until Russia invaded Ukraine in 2014 and led NATO members to be concerned that they might keep going into NATO territory,” Victoria Nuland, undersecretary of state for political affairs, said Tuesday.

This photo taken from video distributed by Russian Defense Ministry Press Service shows Russian military vehicles move during drills in Crimea, April 22, 2021.Russian Defense Ministry Press Service via AP

3. Russia wants a ban on NATO missiles within striking distance

Russia says it wants a ban on intermediate-range missiles in Europe — in effect, reinstating a Cold War-era treaty abandoned in 2019 by the Trump administration, which accused Russia of repeated violations. Believing that the Biden administration is game for a deal, the Kremlin says it wants to bundle arms control progress with its other grievances against NATO expansion. “Are we putting our rockets near the borders of the United States? No we’re not,” argued Putin to a Western journalist during a press conference in December. “It’s the U.S. with its rockets coming to our doorstep.”

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Russia’s reasoning: While Ukraine could be a long way from NATO membership today, Russia has nervously watched as NATO has demonstrated it can deepen its involvement in Ukraine — providing weapons and training — without the former Soviet republic becoming a member. Russia’s president has made no secret he envisions a day in the not-so-distant future when NATO missiles could be housed on Ukrainian soil within minutes’ striking distance from Moscow. “For us this is a serious challenge — a challenge to our security,” Putin said.

NATO’s counter: This could be an area of compromise. For starters, some Democratic lawmakers opposed the Trump administration’s decision to abandon the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty with Russia.

4. Russia wants autonomy for eastern Ukraine

Russia says Ukraine must meet its obligations under 2015 agreements to end the fighting between Ukraine’s army and pro-Russian separatists in eastern Ukraine that has killed some 15,000 people. That peace deal, known as the Minsk agreements, has stalled and Ukrainians are killed practically every week, but it allowed Russia to largely keep up the fiction it is not a party to the war in the Donbas region. Moreover, the Minsk agreements would provide additional autonomy to the separatist Russian-speaking territories in the Donbas.

Russia’s reasoning: Moscow has long believed the U.S. calls the shots in Kyiv and the U.S. has expressed support for the Minsk accords as a path toward deescalation. Moreover, for Moscow, it’s a way to guarantee rights for Russian speakers in the Donbas — and provide the Kremlin leverage into Ukrainian affairs going forward.

NATO’s counter: The U.S. supports the Minsk agreements. Kyiv is less enthusiastic. The deal as signed rewards Russia for stirring up the conflict — meddling that Russia denies. Kyiv and Washington argue Moscow has also failed to meet obligations to the deal.

Michele Kelemen contributed to this explainer from Washington, D.C.

Biden Seeks to Reassure Ukraine, Vowing a Strong Response to Russia and Transferring Weapons

President says any Russian troop movement into Ukraine would be considered an invasion, clarifying earlier remarks about a ‘minor incursion’

Ukraine is unnerved by the presence of almost 100,000 Russian troops near its borders. Ukrainian soldiers in Chasiv Yar, Ukraine.PHOTO: BRENDAN HOFFMAN/GETTY IMAGES

By Vivian Salama and James Marson in Kyiv, Ukraine, and Alex Leary in Washington, D.C.Updated Jan. 20, 2022 9:33 pm ETPRINTTEXT324Listen to articleLength7 minutes

President Biden said Thursday that any Russian troop movement into Ukraine would be considered an invasion, seeking to clear up confusion over his position on a potential incursion as the administration gave approval for U.S.-made weapons to be transferred to Kyiv.

“I’ve been absolutely clear with [Russian] President [Vladimir] Putin. He has no misunderstanding,” Mr. Biden said at a White House event. “If any—any—assembled Russian units move across the Ukrainian border, that is an invasion.”

Mr. Biden’s comments came a day after he sparked criticism, both domestically and in Europe, when he suggested a “minor incursion” by Russia would be met with less than the punishing economic measures his administration has promised for weeks.

Ukraine, already unnerved by the nearly 100,000 Russian troops near its borders, was shaken by the comments, and several officials spoke out, saying that any suggestion of a weaker response would only encourage Mr. Putin.

Military force locations:

Russian

Russian proxy

Ukrainian

Belarusian

Type of force:

Mechanized

Infantry

Airborne

Tank

Marine

Special forces

Minsk

POLAND

BELARUS

Warsaw

RUSSIA

Kiev

L’viv

UKRAINE

Donetsk

MOLDOVA

Odessa

ROMANIA

CRIMEA

Bucharest

Black Sea

Note: Locations in Belarus show where troops are positioned or are moving to.

Source: Dr. Phillip Karber

“Speaking of minor and full incursions or full invasion, you cannot be half-aggressive. You’re either aggressive or you’re not aggressive,” Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba of Ukraine said in an interview with The Wall Street Journal. “We should not give Putin the slightest chance to play with quasi-aggression or small incursion operations.”

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Beyond Mr. Biden’s remarks Thursday, the administration permitted the Baltic nations of Estonia, Lithuania and Latvia, hard on Russia’s border, to send to Ukraine U.S.-made Javelin antitank weapons and Stinger air-defense systems, U.S. officials said.

Five Russian-made Mi-17 transport helicopters will also be transferred to Ukraine, the officials said. The helicopters had been intended for Afghanistan’s military and were being repaired in Ukraine when the U.S.-backed Afghan government collapsed.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who traveled to Kyiv earlier this week, met Thursday in Berlin with the German chancellor as well as with the foreign ministers of Germany and France and a senior U.K. official.

Mr. Blinken is due to meet Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov of Russia on Friday in Geneva.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba met in Kyiv on Wednesday.PHOTO: /ASSOCIATED PRESS

Ukrainian officials are nervous in part because their analysis is that a large-scale attack isn’t Russia’s probable course. Stiff Ukrainian resistance to a direct assault and pressure from the West would act as a deterrent, the officials said. Instead, they said, the Kremlin would probably deploy more covert measures to destabilize its neighbor and remove its leadership.https://tpc.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-38/html/container.html

Mr. Biden didn’t directly address the Ukrainian criticism but noted that the nation’s foreign minister had voiced confidence in U.S. support. “And he has the right to be,” Mr. Biden, a Democrat, said.

“Let there be no doubt at all that if Putin makes this choice, Russia will pay a heavy price,” he said.

At a news conference on Wednesday, Mr. Biden said Russia would be held accountable if it invaded Ukraine, adding, “It depends on what it does. It’s one thing if it’s a minor incursion, and then we end up having a fight about what to do and not do.

President Biden said Wednesday the U.S. was ready to unleash sanctions against Russia if President Vladimir Putin made a move against Ukraine. Mr. Biden also laid out a possible diplomatic resolution. Photo: Susan Walsh/Associated Press

He said that if Russia invades Ukraine, “it is going to be a disaster,” and the U.S. and its allies would respond with measures including economic sanctions.

The White House said following Mr. Biden’s remarks that if any Russian military forces move across the Ukrainian border, it would be regarded as “a renewed invasion” and met with swift consequences from the U.S. and its allies.

Ukrainian leaders are trying to reassure citizens and stave off panic as the number of Russian troops around the country continues to swell. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine in a televised address Wednesday noted that the country had lived under the threat of war since 2014, when Russia first invaded.

“The risks have been present for more than a day, and they haven’t grown,” Mr. Zelensky said. “The hype around them has grown.”https://platform.twitter.com/embed/Tweet.html?creatorScreenName=vmsalama&dnt=false&embedId=twitter-widget-0&features=eyJ0ZndfZXhwZXJpbWVudHNfY29va2llX2V4cGlyYXRpb24iOnsiYnVja2V0IjoxMjA5NjAwLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X2hvcml6b25fdHdlZXRfZW1iZWRfOTU1NSI6eyJidWNrZXQiOiJodGUiLCJ2ZXJzaW9uIjpudWxsfSwidGZ3X3NwYWNlX2NhcmQiOnsiYnVja2V0Ijoib2ZmIiwidmVyc2lvbiI6bnVsbH19&frame=false&hideCard=false&hideThread=false&id=1484171183264129025&lang=en&origin=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.wsj.com%2Farticles%2Fukraines-foreign-minister-says-bidens-minor-incursion-comment-invites-russian-attack-11642686159&sessionId=ff022084dfaf36ae4c6b72c22eb18c92952c1bbd&siteScreenName=WSJ&theme=light&widgetsVersion=75b3351%3A1642573356397&width=550px

Ukrainian officials are urging Western leaders not to play down apparently less-lethal aggression by Moscow because attacks are likely to begin in more covert ways—with cyberattacks, disinformation and provocations designed to destabilize the country and manufacture a pretext for invasion.

Oleksiy Danilov, secretary of Ukraine’s National Security and Defense Council, said a military invasion would be very costly for Russia, given the size of Ukraine’s army, the population’s will to fight and pressure from the West. More likely, he said, Russia would seek, at least in the short term, to intensify a campaign of cyberattacks, provocations, disinformation and economic pressure.

“It will be very difficult for them to achieve their aims by military means. I think, impossible,” Mr. Danilov said. “They have a multifaceted plan to destabilize the domestic situation on the territory of our country. That’s the No. 1 task for them.”

The threat assessment presented by Mr. Danilov underscores the difficulty for Ukrainian and Western officials trying to gauge Mr. Putin.

The Kremlin has denied it is planning an invasion, but Mr. Putin has repeatedly indicated he wants to pull Ukraine, which aims to join the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the European Union, back under Russia’s control.

Are the U.S. and its allies doing enough to defend Ukraine against possible Russian aggression? Join the conversation below.

In 2014, Russia seized Crimea and tried to foment separatist uprisings across Ukraine’s east and south, according to Western and Ukrainian officials. Those rebellions gained a foothold only in two eastern regions with the help of Russian fighters, equipment and, eventually, a covert military invasion. Today, Ukraine’s army is considerably stronger and better equipped. Still, Russia’s military is significantly more potent.

Mr. Putin’s options could include attempting to invade and occupy parts of Ukraine, using a rapid assault to force Kyiv to negotiate, or seeking to pressure the West into compromises with the threat of action, current and former Ukrainian officials said.

Mr. Danilov said Russia, along with Belarus, was behind a cyberattack last week. The U.S. said Russia had deployed a group of operatives to launch a false-flag operation in eastern Ukraine. Mr. Zelensky accused Russia late last year of plotting a coup against him. Russia has denied involvement.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/ukraines-foreign-minister-says-bidens-minor-incursion-comment-invites-russian-attack-11642686159

Opinion: Biden’s ‘minor incursion’ remark was more than just a gaffe. It revealed a weak president.

By Henry OlsenColumnist|FollowYesterday at 1:25 p.m. EST

President Biden’s news conference on Wednesday was a microcosm of the reasons his presidency is on life support. Nothing better demonstrates that than his statement that the United States might tolerate a Russian “minor incursion” into Ukraine.Opinions to start the day, in your inbox. Sign up.

Official U.S. policy has been clear from the outset of the mounting geopolitical crisis. If Russia invades Ukraine, as its troop buildup near the border suggests it might, the United States and its NATO allies would impose massive economic sanctions. Reiterating that policy should have been a chip shot for the president. Instead, he issued a blunder heard round the world.

It doesn’t matter that White House press secretary Jen Psaki issued a clarifying statement only moments after Biden left the stage that the United States would view any movement of Russian forces into Ukraine as an invasion. Or that Biden the next day emphasized that Russia would pay a “heavy price.” Ukrainian officials still seemed flabbergasted by the remark, and allies who were already leery of following Biden’s lead are likely nervous about where he might be taking them.ADVERTISING

Biden has now sown uncertainty where there was clarity, all because he was unable to provide a nuanced point that Russia’s current efforts to destabilize Ukraine do not cross the line that would produce the allegedly crippling sanctions. Ukrainians and our allies must wonder what he will say if he ever speaks off the cuff with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

That inability is a clear example of why so many Americans think he is not up to the job. Biden’s unforced error, followed by a rambling word salad that left listeners more confused than when he started, provides more than enough grist for the mill for those who say he’s not.

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Marc A. Thiessen: Biden wants to brag, but most Americans think his first year was a disasterJennifer RubinCOUNTERPOINTThe media wants to paint Joe Biden as a failure. He won’t let that happen.

Biden’s gaffe also follows an unnerving pattern of pander and bluster. Biden fancies himself a premier negotiator, but he is often extremely conciliatory, allowing others to advance their preferred positions without much push back. Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin III (W.Va.) and Kyrsten Sinema (Ariz.) used this to dramatically scale back Biden’s initial tax-and-spending proposals to the consternation of party progressives. He’s too willing to give away more than he needs, and can’t even reach a deal when he does.https://6413f77f4e258a28a54d36bc7db25aa6.safeframe.googlesyndication.com/safeframe/1-0-38/html/container.html

Once his conciliation fails, however, he often resorts to extreme harshness bordering on demagoguery. Consider his partisan and reckless speech on voting rights, in which he demonized those who do not support his proposed reforms as the rhetorical descendants of repugnant racists such as Jefferson Davis. Listeners don’t quake in their boots in fear when he speaks like this; they roll their eyes. Such bluster doesn’t get him any closer to his goal. In fact, it underscores his weakness.

Which brings us back to the threat of Russia invading Ukraine. Why would Putin believe Biden in the face of his enduring ineptitude? Putin knows many European allies are leery of the pain that serious sanctions would inflict on their economies. Many are dependent upon the importation of Russian natural gas to heat their homes and workspaces. Crushing sanctions would halt these imports, and thus hurt Russia, but they would also cripple nations that rely on them. If Biden can’t even get two wayward Democratic senators on board with their party’s priorities, why would Putin think he can get sovereign countries to engage in economic self-harm? The sheer incongruity of what Biden threatens makes the threat weaker, and thus weakens him as well.

Jennifer Rubin: The media wants to paint Biden as a failure. He won’t let that happen.

Indeed, Putin already has experience with the United States backing away from a seemingly clear red line. President Barack Obama did that in Syria in 2013 when he failed to strike Syrian forces after they used chemical weapons even though he said he would. That bluff was all that Putin needed; if Obama wouldn’t oppose chemical weapons strikes, he had no stomach for intervening in the Syrian civil war at all. By the end of 2015, Russian troops were on the ground there in support of the Syrian regime, saving the country’s dictator from defeat and bolstering Russia’s role in Middle East politics.

Biden’s gaffe is consistent with what we’ve seen so far. He is a weak president who is neither feared nor loved. For the United States, that will likely mean a devastating defeat for Democrats in this year’s midterms. For Ukraine and other U.S. allies, it could mean much worse.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/20/bidens-minor-incursion-remark-was-more-than-just-gaffe-it-revealed-weak-president/

Story 3: President Biden Job Approval Falling to New Low — Videos

Polls show Biden sinking after first year in office

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The Pronk Pop Show 1448, December 14, 2021, Story 1: Congressional Coverup and Show Trial on January 6, 2022 “Insurrection”, Riot, Protest, Peaceful Protest, — Capital Police Panic and The Killing of Ashli Babbitt 14-Year Air Force Veteran in Capitol Building Invasion By Capital Police Officer Using Excessive Force — Videos

Posted on January 19, 2022. Filed under: Uncategorized |

The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts

T he Pronk Pops Show 1447 December 13, 2021 posted as soon as available

T he Pronk Pops Show 1445 December 6, 2021, 202 1
The Pronk Pops Show 1444 November 30, 2021
The Pronk Pops Show 1443 November 29, 2021

The Pronk Pops Show 1434 October 21, 2021

COVID-19 Closed KDUX Studios From March 14, 2020 Through August 22, 2021

The Pronk Pops Show 1413 March 13, 2020 cancelled due to COVID -19