The Pronk Pops Show 1037, February 22, 2018, Story 1: President Trump Hosts a Meeting with State and Local Leaders on School Safety — Videos — Story 2: Part 2 — President Trump Hosts a Listening Session with High School Students and Teachers at White House — Videos — Story 3: Council of Economic Advisers Submits Annual Report — Expects Real Gross Domestic Product To Grow at Annual Rate of  3% Through 2028 –Videos

Posted on February 22, 2018. Filed under: American History, Blogroll, Breaking News, Budgetary Policy, College, Communications, Congress, Corruption, Countries, Crime, Donald J. Trump, Donald J. Trump, Donald Trump, Economics, Education, Elections, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Fiscal Policy, Freedom of Speech, Government, Government Spending, History, Homicide, House of Representatives, Human Behavior, Independence, Labor Economics, Media, Monetary Policy, News, People, Philosophy, Photos, Politics, Polls, President Trump, Progressives, Raymond Thomas Pronk, Rule of Law, Scandals, Senate, Tax Policy, Trade Policy, United States of America | Tags: , , , |

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The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts

Pronk Pops Show 1037, February 22, 2018 posted as soon as possible

Pronk Pops Show 1036, February 21, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1035, February 16, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1034, February 15, 2018  

Pronk Pops Show 1033, February 14, 2018  

Pronk Pops Show 1032, February 13, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1031, February 12, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1030, February 9, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1028, February 7, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1027, February 2, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1026, February 1, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1025, January 31, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1024, January 30, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1023, January 29, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1022, January 26, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1021, January 25, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1020, January 24, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1019, January 18, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1018, January 17, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1017, January 16, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1016, January 10, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1015, January 9, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1014, January 8, 2018

Pronk Pops Show 1013, December 13, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1012, December 12, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1011, December 11, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1010, December 8, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1009, December 7, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1008, December 1, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1007, November 28, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1006, November 27, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1005, November 22, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1004, November 21, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1003, November 20, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1002, November 15, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1001, November 14, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 1000, November 13, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 999, November 10, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 998, November 9, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 997, November 8, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 996, November 6, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 995, November 3, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 994, November 2, 2017

Pronk Pops Show 993, November 1, 2017

See the source image

See the source imageSee the source image

 

Story 1: President Trump Hosts a Meeting with State and Local Leaders on School Safety — Videos —

FULL. President Trump meets with State and local officials on school safety. Feb 22, 2018

President Trump Meets With Officials To Discuss School Safety. | Thursday, 22 February 2018

Tucker Carlson Tonight 2/22/18 – Fox News Today February 22, 2018

Addressing Gun Violence at Schools Is Not a Political Issue: It’s a Common Sense One

Parkland Shooting Survivor: CNN Gave Me “Scripted Question” After Denying Question About Armed Guard

Crisis Acting Crises, Antigun Paroxysms, Feigned Hysteria — Lionel on “Real News With David Knight”

Gutfeld: The media’s role in mass shootings

NRA’s LaPierre accuses Democrats of exploiting Florida shooting

NRA CEO Wayne LaPierre speaks at CPAC after school shooting

Second Amendment Explained

What Should We Do About Guns?

Penn & Teller – Gun Control

Is Gun Ownership a Right?

Gun Control is Bullshit!!

The Truth About Gun Control

CNN town hall in wake of Florida school shooting

Story 2: Part 2 — President Trump Hosts a Listening Session with High School Students and Teachers at White House — Videos —

President Trump Hosts a Listening Session with High School Students and Teachers. 2.21.18 — Videos

President Trump: “It’s called concealed carry.” (C-SPAN)

The Ingraham Angle 2/21/18 , The Ingraham Angle February 21. 2018

Tucker Carlson Tonight 2/21/18 | Fox News Today | February 21, 2018

Sean Hannity 2/21/18 – Fox News Today February 21, 2018

President Trump full statement on Parkland, Florida School Shooting (C-SPAN)

Dr Susan Gratia-Hupp – Survivor of the 1991 Kileen TX Lubys Shooting Massacre

What Is An “Assault Rifle”? – You’ve Probably Been Lied To

The Difference Between SEMI-AUTOMATIC and FULLY AUTOMATIC GUNS

Assault Rifle vs. Sporting Rifle

Published on Dec 30, 2012

The media and the anti-gunners are trying to tell Americans that “assault weapons” need to be banned for public safety. The problem is, assault rifles were banned in 1986. What they want to ban now are semi-automatic sporting firearms. The firearms they want to ban account for less than 1% of the firearms used in crime. We need to stop this mindless attack on our Constitutional rights.

Full Auto vs. Semi-Auto with an AK

Inside the AK-47

What is a Bump Stock? Should it be illegal?!

Rush Limbaugh: We Need Concealed Carry in Schools. “Bashing NRA Isn’t Going to Do it”

Texas school allows teachers to carry concealed weapons

Tx. Teachers To Carry Guns

Published on Aug 19, 2008
The Harrold, Texas school district calls for teachers to carry guns to prevent a future Columbine school incident. Harry Smith talks to the superintendent and a teacher’s federation representative.

The school where teachers are armed

The Safest School District In The USA! Shamrock ISD In Amarillo Texas

Marble Falls TX School Allows Teachers To Carry Guns On Campus

Published on Jan 31, 2013
Because it makes sense, that’s why!

Principals and Teachers Who Carry Guns at School

What It’s Like Inside a School Shooting Drill

Auburn University Active Shooter Response Training – ALICE

ALICE training

ALICE Training Video

Law to allow concealed carry guns on school campuses

John Lott: The War on Guns

John Lott: “When Countries Impose Gun Bans Murder Rates Go Up”

John Lott: Why More Guns Equal Less Crime

More Guns Mean Less Crime: The Most Rigorously Comprehensive Data Analysis (2000)

Las Vegas Massacre: John Lott discusses gun laws and ownership

The Port Arthur Massacre – Australia’s Worst Shooting Spree in History (Crime Documentary)

Published on Mar 10, 2017
The Port Arthur Massacre – Australia’s Worst Shooting Spree in History (Crime Documentary) The Port Arthur massacre of 28–29 April 1996 was a massacre in which 35 people were killed and 23 wounded. It occurred mainly at the historic Port Arthur former prison colony, a popular tourist site in south-eastern Tasmania, Australia. It was the deadliest mass shooting in Australian history, and amongst the worst in the world.[3] Martin Bryant, a 28-year-old from New Town, a suburb of Hobart, was found guilty of the shootings and given 35 life sentences without possibility of parole. Following the incident, it emerged in the media that Bryant had significant intellectual disabilities. He is now imprisoned in the Wilfred Lopes Centre near the Risdon Prison Complex. Following the spree, the Prime Minister of Australia, John Howard, introduced strict gun control laws within Australia and formulated the National Firearms Programme Implementation Act 1996, restricting the private ownership of high capacity semi-automatic rifles, semi-automatic shotguns and pump-action shotguns as well as introducing uniform firearms licensing. It was implemented with bipartisan support by the Commonwealth, states and territories.

Norway’s Utoeya massacre: 5 years on – BBC News

BBC This World – Norway’s Massacre

 

TIMELINE: Deinstitutionalization And Its Consequences

How deinstitutionalization moved thousands of mentally ill people out of hospitals—and into jails and prisons.

1773

The first patient is admitted to the Public Hospital for Persons of Insane and Disordered Minds in Williamsburg, Virginia.

The rebuilt Public Hospital for Persons of Insane and Disordered Minds in Williamsburg. Wikipedia

1841

Boston schoolteacher Dorothea Dix visits the East Cambridge Jail, where she first sees the horrible living conditions of the mentally ill. Believing they could be cured, Dix lobbies lawmakers and courts for better treatment until her death in 1887. Her efforts lead to the establishment of 110 psychiatric hospitals by 1880.

Dorothea Dix Wikipedia

1887

On assignment for New York WorldNellie Bly feigns lunacy in order to be admitted to the Women’s Lunatic Asylum on New York’s Blackwell’s Island. Her exposé, “Ten Days in a Mad-house,” detailing the appalling living conditions at the asylum, leads to a grand jury investigation and needed reforms at the institution.

Wikipedia

1907

Indiana is the first of more than 30 states to enact a compulsory sterilization law, allowing the state to “prevent procreation of confirmed criminals, idiots, imbeciles and rapists.” By 1940, 18,552 mentally ill people are surgically sterilized.

Wikipedia

1936

Dr. Walter Freeman and his colleague James Watt perform the first prefrontal lobotomy. By the late 1950s, an estimated 50,000 lobotomies are performed in the United States.

Dr. Walter Freeman and Dr. James Watts examine an X-ray before a psychosurgical procedure. Wikipedia

1938

Italian neurologist Ugo Cerletti introduces electroshock therapy as a treatment for people with schizophrenia and other chronic mental illnesses.

A man sits in a Bergonic chair for electroshock treatment. Wikipedia

1946

President Harry Truman signs the National Mental Health Act, calling for the establishment of the National Institute of Mental Health to conduct research into neuropsychiatric problems.

1954

Marketed as Thorazine by Smith-Kline and French, chlorpromazine is the first antipsychotic drug approved by the Food and Drug Administration. It quickly becomes a staple in asylums.

A 1962 advertisement for Thorazine. Wikipedia

1955

The number of mentally ill people in public psychiatric hospitals peaks at 560,000.

1962

One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest, a novel by Ken Kesey, is published. The bestseller is based on his experience working the as a nurse’s aide in the psychiatric wing of Menlo Park Veteran’s Hospital in California.

Wikipedia

1963

President John F. Kennedy signs the Community Mental Health Act to provide federal funding for the construction of community-based preventive care and treatment facilities. Between the Vietnam War and an economic crisis, the program was never adequately funded.

1965

With the passage of Medicaid, states are incentivized to move patients out of state mental hospitals and into nursing homes and general hospitals because the program excludes coverage for people in “institutions for mental diseases.”

Dmitry Kalinovsky/Shutterstock

1967

The California Legislature passes the Lanterman-Petris-Short Act, which makes involuntary hospitalization of mentally ill people vastly more difficult. One year after the law goes into effect, the number of mentally ill people in the criminal-justice system doubles.

1977

There are 650 community health facilities serving 1.9 million mentally ill patients a year.

1980

President Jimmy Carter signs the Mental Health Systems Act, which aims to restructure the community mental-health-center program and improve services for people with chronic mental illness.

President Jimmy Carter Library of Congress

1981

Under President Ronald Reagan, the Omnibus Budget Reconciliation Act repeals Carter’s community health legislation and establishes block grants for the states, ending the federal government’s role in providing services to the mentally ill.  Federal mental-health spending decreases by 30 percent.

President Ronald Reagan Library of Congress

1984

An Ohio-based study finds that up to 30 percent of homeless people are thought to suffer from serious mental illness.

1985

Federal funding drops to 11 percent of community mental-health agency budgets.

1990

Clozapine, the first “atypical” antipsychotic drug to be developed, is approved by the FDA as a treatment for schizophrenia.

2004

Studies suggest approximately 16 percent of prison and jail inmates are seriously mentally ill, roughly 320,000 people. This year, there are about 100,000 psychiatric beds in public and private hospitals. That means there are more three times as many seriously mentally ill people in jails and prisons than in hospitals.

BortN66/Shutterstock

2009

In the aftermath of the Great Recession, states are forced to cut $4.35 billion in public mental-health spending over the next three years, the largest reduction in funding since deinstitutionalization.

2010

There are 43,000 psychiatric beds in the United States, or about 14 beds per 100,000 people—the same ratio as in 1850.

VILevi/Shutterstock

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2013/04/timeline-mental-health-america/

Story 3: Council of Economic Advisers Submits Economic Annual Report — Expects Real Gross Domestic Product To Grow at Annual Rate of  3% –Videos

White House Press Briefing February 22, 2018. White House Press Briefing with Raj Shah.

White House forecasts economic growth

Tax reform impact is gaining momentum: Hassett

Three percent growth is just getting back to normal: Hassett

A Summary of the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers

11 minute read

The purpose of the Annual Report of the Council of Economic Advisers is to provide the public and the economic policy community with a detailed account of the performance of the U.S. economy in the preceding year and with an analysis of the Administration’s domestic and international economic policy priorities for the years ahead. In this Report, we thus review the salient policy developments of 2017 and preview policy aims for the coming years, in the context of the Administration’s unified agenda to expand our economy and the economic prosperity of all Americans.

The U.S. economy experienced strong and economically significant acceleration in 2017, with growth in real GDP exceeding expectations and increasing from 2.0 and 1.8 percent in 2015 and 2016 to 2.5 percent, including two successive quarters above 3.0 percent. The unemployment rate fell 0.6 percentage point, to 4.1 percent, its lowest level since December 2000, while the economy added 2.2 million jobs, an average of 181,000 per month. Notably, manufacturing and mining—having lost 9,000 and 98,000 jobs, respectively, in 2016—added 189,000 and 53,000 jobs during 2017. Labor productivity grew 1.1 percent, compared with a decline of –0.1 percent in 2016, and average hourly earnings of private employees rose 2.7 percent, compared with average growth of 2.1 percent during the preceding 7 years. Reflecting the economy’s outperformance of expectations, the January 2017 Blue Chip consensus forecast of 2.3 percent GDP growth in 2018 was revised upward in February 2018 to 2.7 percent.

The four quarters of 2017 thus marked a nontrivial trend shift. From 2010 through 2016, real output in the United States grew at an average annual rate of 2.1 percent, while labor productivity grew, on average, by less than 1 percent. The pace of economic recovery was slow by historical standards, particularly because recent research has confirmed Milton Friedman’s original observation that in the United States, deeper recessions are typically succeeded by steeper expansions, and that this correlation is in fact stronger when the contraction is accompanied by a financial crisis. Since the nineteenth century, the recent recovery was one of only three exceptions to this pattern.

In the Report, we provide evidence that the historically anemic recovery from the Great Recession was not independent of policy choices, and accordingly we proceed to identify the exacerbating factors in the weakness of the post-2009 recovery and the current Administration’s strategies and menu of policy options to address them.

First and foremost, on the historic Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA), we find that investment and labor productivity have been inhibited in recent years by the coincidence of high and rising global capital mobility and an increasingly internationally uncompetitive U.S. corporate tax code and worldwide system of taxation. This combination had the effect of deterring U.S. domestic capital formation, thereby restraining capital deepening, productivity growth, and, ultimately, output and real wage growth, with the economic costs of corporate taxation thereby increasingly and disproportionately borne by the less mobile factor of production—namely, labor. Indeed, the five-year, centered-moving-average contribution of capital services per hour worked to labor productivity actually turned negative in 2012 and 2013 for the first time since World War II. We estimate that by lowering the cost of capital and reducing incentives for corporate entities to shift production and profits overseas, the corporate provisions of the TCJA will raise GDP by 2 to 4percent over the long run, and increase average annual household income by $4,000.

Similarly, we discuss a large body of academic literature indicating that an excessive regulatory burden can negatively affect productivity growth, and thus overall growth, by attenuating the flow of new firms’ entries and established firms’ exits, and also by amplifying the spatial misallocation of labor and creating employment barriers to entry. We furthermore highlight actions the Administration has already taken to eliminate inefficient and unnecessary regulations, with the effect of raising prospects for innovation, productivity, and economic growth.

On labor markets, we find considerable evidence suggesting, as with regulation, that postrecession efforts to strike a new optimum on the frontier of social protection and economic growth may have sacrificed too much of the latter in pursuit of the former. We also find that while demographic shifts owing to the retirement of aging Baby Boom cohorts exerted strong downward pressure on the labor force participation rate, factors other than demography accounted for one-third of the overall decline in participation during the recovery, and half the decline since the cyclical peak in the fourth quarter of 2007. For instance, we find that increases in fiscal transfers during the Great Recession intended to mitigate the demand-side effects of rising unemployment generated persistent negative effects on the prime-age labor supply. Meanwhile, structural unemployment coterminous with imperfect geographic mobility—exacerbated by regulatory restrictions, drug abuse, and inadequate investment in infrastructure—have similarly intensified downward trends in labor force participation among prime-age workers.

These challenges, however, particularly those of low labor productivity growth and declining labor force participation, are not policy-invariant. For example, policies that incentivize highly skilled and experienced older workers to defer retirement, such as the marginal income tax rate reductions enacted by the TCJA, can have important implications not only for labor force participation but also for productivity. Moreover, by raising the target capital stock, we expect the TCJA to result in capital deepening, again contributing to productivity growth and rising household earnings.

Relatedly, we document the deficiencies of our current public infrastructure, and investigate the adverse effects of these deficiencies on economic growth and consumer welfare, as well as potential remedial policy options. In particular, we examine how the fundamental mismatch between the demand for and supply of public infrastructure capital could be ameliorated by utilizing existing assets more efficiently and by adjusting longrun capacity to levels best matched with local needs, which would allow local governments more flexibility in giving prices a larger role in guiding consumption and investment decisions, and in streamlining environmental review and permitting processes. Moreover, addressing the current inadequacies of our public infrastructure would help to attenuate the coincidence of structural unemployment with imperfect geographic mobility—again, exacerbated by regulatory restrictions—that has been a factor in the decline of labor force participation.

We also look at issues in international trade policy and actions the Administration has taken and could take to generate positive-sum, reciprocal trade agreements with our trading partners. Specifically, in addition to reviewing the benefits of economic specialization and consequent gains from trade, we also demonstrate how instances of unfair trade practices by a subset of our partners have had the effect of limiting the potential gains from trade to the United States and the world, with particularly adverse consequences for the U.S. manufacturing sector. Addressing these issues would raise productivity by encouraging greater investment in sectors where the U.S. economy enjoys a comparative advantage, especially but not exclusively energy and agricultural products.

We then turn our attention to the health of the true catalyst of U.S. economic growth: the American worker. Although the Affordable Care Act (ACA) expanded insurance coverage to at most 6 percent of the U.S. population—through Medicaid, marketplaces, and the dependent coverage provision—we survey a large body of academic literature that estimates the effect of insurance coverage on health to be substantially smaller than commonly presumed. Indeed, for the first time in over 50 years, U.S. life expectancy declined in 2015 and 2016, suggesting that factors such as drug abuse, particularly of opioids, and obesity may have a larger impact than insurance coverage alone can redress. Instead, we find that increased choice and competition, along with a recognition by policymakers that the determinants of health are multidimensional, may constitute more efficient avenues for improving health outcomes, particularly among lower-income households. Fundamentally, it is the view of this Council that healthy people not only live longer, more enjoyable lives but are also an essential component of reversing recent trends in labor productivity and labor force participation.

We then consider the emerging challenge of cybersecurity, particularly in the context of our ongoing transition to an information economy. Malicious cyber activity presents new threats to the protection of property rights, including rights to intangible assets and even information itself, and thus imposes large and real costs on the U.S. economy. Given the existence of positive externalities from investing in cybersecurity, we discuss policy options that might shift this investment to its socially optimal level, including public-private partnerships that promote basic research, protecting critical infrastructure assets, disseminating new security standards, and expanding the cybersecurity workforce.

Finally, we examine the year in review and survey the years ahead. Acknowledging underlying strengths and challenges, the Administration’s November 2017 baseline forecast, which excludes the effects of the TCJA, projects that output will grow by an overall average annual rate of 2.2 percent through 2028. The policy-inclusive forecast, however, which assumes full implementation of the Administration’s agenda, is for average annual real GDP growth through 2028 of 3.0 percent. We expect growth to moderate slightly after 2020, as the capital-output ratio approaches its new steady state level and the pro-growth effect of the individual elements of the TCJA dissipate, though the level effect will be permanent. However, expected further deregulation and infrastructure investment will partly offset the declining contribution to growth of tax cuts and reforms toward the end of the budget window. The policy-inclusive forecast is conservative relative to those of previous Administrations, and in fact is slightly below the median of 3.1 percent. Moreover, the baseline forecast is precisely in line with the long-run outlook given in the 2017 Economic Report of the President, reflecting our view that nonimplementation of the current Administration’s policy objectives will imply a reversion to the lower growth trend of recent years.

Preliminary indicators suggest that markets indeed detect a trend shift. In the weeks immediately following the TCJA’s passage, over 300 companies announced wage and salary increases, as well as bonuses and supplementary 401(k) contributions of $2.4 billion affecting 4.2 million workers, citing the new law. In addition, by the end of January 2018, this Council tallied $190 billion in newly announced corporate investment projects that were publicly attributed to the TCJA, revealing that firms are responding to the TCJA as theory and empirical evidence predicted.

As a society, we hold many values and aspirations, including but not limited to expanding economic prosperity, that may not exist always and everywhere in complete harmony. It is the view of this Council that in recent years, the pursuit of alternative policy aspirations at the expense of growth has imposed real economic costs on the American people, in the form of diminished opportunity, security, equity, and even health. We therefore endorse an agenda for returning the American economy to its full growth potential.



Read Why Cutting Taxes is Good for American Workers

https://www.whitehouse.gov/articles/summary-annual-report-council-economic-advisers/

The Council of Economic Advisers was established by Congress in the Employment Act of 1946. The portion of the bill that authorizes the Council is presented below:

“There is hereby created in the Executive Office of the President a Council of Economic Advisers (hereinafter called the “Council”). The Council shall be composed of three members who shall be appointed by the President, by and with the advice and consent of the Senate, and each of whom shall be a person who, as a result of his training, experience, and attainments, is exceptionally qualified to analyze and interpret economic developments, to appraise programs and activities of the Government in the light of the policy declared in section 2, and to formulate and recommend national economic policy to promote employment, production, and purchasing power under free competitive enterprise. The President shall designate one of the members of the Council as Chairman.

It shall be the duty and function of the Council–

  1. to assist and advise the President in the preparation of the Economic Report;
  2. to gather timely and authoritative information concerning economic developments and economic trends, both current and prospective, to analyze and interpret such information in the light of the policy declared in section 2 for the purpose of determining whether such developments and trends are interfering, or are likely to interfere, with the achievement of such policy, and to compile and submit to the President studies relating to such developments and trends;
  3. to appraise the various programs and activities of the Federal Government in the light of the policy declared in section 2 for the purpose of determining the extent to which such programs and activities are contributing, and the extent to which they are not contributing, to the achievement of such policy, and to make recommendations to the President with respect thereto;
  4. to develop and recommend to the President national economic policies to foster and promote free competitive enterprise, to avoid economic fluctuations or to diminish the effects thereof, and to maintain employment, production, and purchasing power;
  5. to make and furnish such studies, reports thereon, and recommendations with respect to matters of Federal economic policy and legislation as the President may request.”

https://www.whitehouse.gov/cea/

Trump’s team releases economic report, compares him to Reagan and Kennedy

Heather LongWashington Post

President Donald Trump‘s policies are driving an economic turnaround that puts him in the company of transformative presidents such as John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan, White House economists said Wednesday as they unveiled their first “Economic Report of the President.”

The report presents a highly optimistic view of the economy’s current condition and future course, with growth predictions that exceed most nonpartisan economists’ expectations. Economists also caution the White House’s efforts to juice growth could cause the economy to overheat and then careen into a downturn.

But the White House argues Trump’s economy has already outperformed expectations, noting 2.3 percent growth in the U.S. gross domestic product last year. And it argues the administration’s efforts to cut taxes and strip regulations can push growth rates far beyond recent levels.

“The Trump Administration is the first since that of President Ronald Reagan to see positive economic growth exceed its first-year forecast,” the White House said when it released the 568-page report.

Going forward, Trump’s team predicts 3 percent GDP growth for years to come. That’s short of the 4 percent growth Trump promised while campaigning, but it would still be a marked improvement from former President Barack Obama‘s time in office.

“We’ve restored economic policies to where a sensible, rational country would put them,” said economist Kevin Hassett, head of Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers.

For now, however, the Trump economy is performing much as it did during Obama’s final years. Hiring during Trump’s first year in office was slower than the annual pace in Obama’s last several years, and the economic growth rate was similar in 2017 to what it was in 2014 and 2015. The one noticeable change has been a jump in business and consumer confidence since the election, according to nonpartisan surveys.

Trump’s report repeatedly casts the Obama economy as a period of “stagnation” where the former president “worsened the wound” of the crisis with his policies. In contrast, the Trump economy is described as “reinvigorating,” “pro-growth” and visionary.

Every president since Harry Truman in 1947 has put out an annual economic report laying out a vision for how to boost growth and lower unemployment and making projections of what’s ahead for the next decade.

Forecasting where the economy is headed is notoriously difficult, and both Republican and Democratic administrations have been way off. Predictions from George W. Bush and Obama proved too optimistic. In 2011, the Obama team predicted growth would soar to 4 percent a year in 2012, 2013 and 2014. Growth didn’t come close to that.

Most independent economists think Trump is also too rosy. The current expansion is already nine years old, making it one of the longest periods of growth in U.S. history. Trump is projecting he can beat the 1990s expansion to usher in the longest expansion ever.

Economists warn that there’s been a dramatic change since the 1990s: America’s population is a lot older now. Many baby boomers are retiring, which is dragging down growth. On top of that, Trump wants to restrict immigration. With fewer workers in the economy going forward, the United States could struggle to match past growth rates.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a top forecasting company, predicts 2.7 percent growth this year and 2.6 percent in 2019, but after that, growth is expected to fall back to 1.8 percent.

“The pretty solid growth we’re showing over the next couple of years is in part the result of the boost from the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, but that’s only a temporary boost in growth,” said Ben Herzon, senior economist at Macroeconomic Advisers. “The only way to get to 3 percent growth on a sustained basis is faster growth of the labor force or faster growth of productivity. I just don’t see that happening.”

Productivity has been stubbornly low in the United States since the dot-com era, and that slowdown has occurred in Europe and Japan as well. The Trump team forecasts a large jump in productivity as businesses use their tax savings to invest more in new equipment, factories and technology. Business capital spending did rise in 2017, but it’s still nowhere near where it was in the 1990s.

The Trump administration is relying on “faith-based economics,” said Ed Yardeni, head of Yardeni Research.

Trump says he’s just getting going. The report touts the benefits of the tax cuts. Based on the latest totals, White House economists note “over 300 companies” have announced bonuses, wage increases and extra contributions to retirement accounts. More than 4.2 million workers are enjoying the benefits right now, economists said, and Americans are starting to see the tax savings on their paychecks.

Trump’s team also said the economy could get a further boost from more favorable trade agreements and an infrastructure deal. The White House is pushing lawmakers to pass legislation that would revamp the country’s roads, waterways and other infrastructure, though it faces a difficult path through a divided Congress because there is no clear way to fund the plan, and deficits could hit $1 trillion as early as next year.

The White House continues to argue that the tax cut will pay for itself with faster growth, but nonpartisan economists disagree. Congress’ Joint Committee on Taxation estimates the tax bill would add at least $1 trillion to the debt over the next decade, even after accounting for some extra growth.

A growing number of economists say a more likely course for the U.S. economy is a boom in the next year or two and then a bust. They foresee all the extra spending in Washington and the deficit-financed tax cuts to probably cause the U.S. economy to overheat.

“We are prepared to risk the whole economy for the sake of one point of extra GDP,” said economist Desmond Lachman at an event last week at the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute. He sees rising risks, especially if inflation starts to rise rapidly, forcing the Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sharply in the next two years.

The Trump administration pushes back on such grim forecasts, saying it thinks inflation will remain low – around the Fed’s 2 percent – for years to come, even with all the extra stimulus from the tax cuts and higher government spending.

Trump’s approach to the economy, much like Reagan’s, is meant to trigger businesses to spend and invest more, which his advisers say will cause wages to rise and growth to stay high for years to come.

“If you think about our policies, then they’re almost, across the board, supply-side policies,” Hassett said. “We think that the beneficial effects of the supply-side stimulus, especially that begin to accumulate after this year, take a lot of pressure off of inflation.”

http://www.chicagotribune.com/business/ct-biz-white-house-us-gdp-growth-20180221-story.html

Council of Economic Advisers

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
Council of Economic Advisers
Council of Economic Advisers.png
Agency overview
Formed 1946; 72 years ago
Preceding agencies
Headquarters Eisenhower Executive Office Building
Employees About 35
Agency executive
Parent agency Executive Office of the President of the United States
Website Council of Economic Advisers

The Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) is a United States agency within the Executive Office of the President established in 1946, which advises the President of the United States on economic policy.[2] The CEA provides much of the objective empirical research for the White House and prepares the annual Economic Report of the President.

History, 1946-1978

The Truman administration established the Council of Economic Advisers via the Employment Act of 1946, to provide presidents with objective economic analysis and advice on the development and implementation of a wide range of domestic and international economic policy issues. It was a step from an “ad hoc style of economic policy making to a more institutionalized and focused process”. In 1949 Chairman Edwin Nourse and member Leon Keyserling argued about whether the advice should be private or public and about the role of government in economic stabilization.[3]

Nourse believed a choice had to be made between “guns or butter” but Keyserling argued for deficit spending, an expanding economy could afford large defense expenditures without sacrificing an increased standard of living. In 1949, Keyserling gained support from Truman advisors Dean Acheson and Clark Clifford. Nourse resigned as chairman, warning about the dangers of budget deficits and increased funding of “wasteful” defense costs. Keyserling succeeded to the chairmanship and influenced Truman’s Fair Deal proposals and the economic sections of National Security Council Resolution 68 that, in April 1950, asserted that the larger armed forces America needed would not affect living standards or risk the “transformation of the free character of our economy.”[4]

During the 1953–54 recession, the CEA, headed by Arthur Burns deployed non-traditional neo-keynesian interventions, which provided results later called the “steady fifties” wherein many families stayed in the economic “middleclass” with just one family wage-earner. The Eisenhower Administration supported an activist contracyclical approach that helped to establish Keynesianism as a possible bipartisan economic policy for the nation. Especially important in formulating the CEA response to the recession—accelerating public works programs, easing credit, and reducing taxes—were Arthur F. Burns and Neil H. Jacoby.[5]

Until 1963 -during its first seven years- the CEA made five technical advances in policy making, including the replacement of a “cyclical model” of the economy by a “growth model,” the setting of quantitative targets for the economy, use of the theories of fiscal drag and full-employment budget, recognition of the need for greater flexibility in taxation, and replacement of the notion of unemployment as a structural problem by a realization of a low aggregate demand.[6]

The 1978 Humphrey–Hawkins Full Employment Act required each administration to move toward full employment and reasonable price stability within a specific time period. It has made CEA’s annual economic report highly political in nature, as well as highly unreliable and inaccurate over the standard two or five year projection periods.[7]

History 1978-present

Since 1980, the CEA focused on sources of economic growth, the supply side of the economy and on international issues.[3]

Organization

The council’s chairman is nominated by the president and approved by the United States Senate. The members are appointed by the president. As of July 2017, the council´s 18 person staff consisted of a chief of staff (Director of Macroeconomic Forecasting), 15 economists (5 senior, 4 research, 4 staff economists, 2 economic statisticians) and 2 operations staff.[8]Many of the staff economists are academics on leave or government economists on temporary assignment from other agencies.[citation needed]

Chairmen and members

List of chairmen

Officeholder Term start Term end President
Edwin G. Nourse August 9, 1946 November 1, 1949 Harry Truman
Leon Keyserling
Acting: 1949–1950
November 2, 1949 January 20, 1953
Arthur F. Burns March 19, 1953 December 1, 1956 Dwight Eisenhower
Raymond J. Saulnier December 3, 1956 January 20, 1961
Walter Heller January 29, 1961 November 15, 1964 John F. Kennedy
Lyndon Johnson
Gardner Ackley November 16, 1964 February 15, 1968
Arthur M. Okun February 15, 1968 January 20, 1969
Paul W. McCracken February 4, 1969 December 31, 1971 Richard Nixon
Herbert Stein January 1, 1972 August 31, 1974
Gerald Ford
Alan Greenspan September 4, 1974 January 20, 1977
Charles Schultze January 22, 1977 January 20, 1981 Jimmy Carter
Murray Weidenbaum February 27, 1981 August 25, 1982 Ronald Reagan
Martin Feldstein October 14, 1982 July 10, 1984
Beryl W. Sprinkel April 18, 1985 January 20, 1989
Michael J. Boskin February 2, 1989 January 20, 1993 George H. W. Bush
Laura Tyson February 5, 1993 February 21, 1995 Bill Clinton
Joseph Stiglitz June 28, 1995 February 13, 1997
Janet Yellen February 18, 1997 August 3, 1999
Martin N. Baily August 12, 1999 January 20, 2001
Glenn Hubbard May 11, 2001 February 28, 2003 George W. Bush
Greg Mankiw May 29, 2003 February 18, 2005
Harvey S. Rosen February 23, 2005 June 10, 2005
Ben Bernanke June 21, 2005 January 31, 2006
Edward Lazear February 27, 2006 January 20, 2009
Christina Romer January 28, 2009 September 3, 2010 Barack Obama
Austan Goolsbee September 10, 2010 August 5, 2011
Alan Krueger November 7, 2011 August 2, 2013
Jason Furman[9] August 2, 2013 January 20, 2017
Kevin Hassett[10] September 13, 2017 Incumbent Donald Trump

List of members

References

Sources

  • Brazelton, W. Robert (2001), Designing U.S. Economic Policy: An Analytical Biography of Leon H. Keyserling, New York: Palgrave, ISBN 0-333-77575-9
  • Brazelton, W. Robert (1997), “The Economics of Leon Hirsch Keyserling”, Journal of Economic Perspectives11 (4): 189–197, doi:10.1257/jep.11.4.189ISSN 0895-3309
  • Brune, Lester H. (1989), “Guns and Butter: the Pre-Korean War Dispute over Budget Allocations: Nourse’s Conservative Keynesianism Loses Favor Against Keyserling’s Economic Expansion Plan”, The American Journal of Economics and Sociology48 (3): 357–371, doi:10.1111/j.1536-7150.1989.tb03189.xISSN 0002-9246
  • Cimbala, Stephen J.; Stout, Robert L. (1983), “The Economic Report of the President: Before and after the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978”, Presidential Studies Quarterly13 (1): 50–61, ISSN 0360-4918
  • Eizenstat, Stuart E. (1992), “Economists and White House Decisions”, Journal of Economic Perspectives6 (3): 65–71, doi:10.1257/jep.6.3.65ISSN 0895-3309
  • Engelbourg, Saul (1980), “The Council of Economic Advisers and the Recession of 1953–1954”, Business History Review54 (2): 192–214, doi:10.2307/3114480ISSN 0007-6805JSTOR 3114480
  • Leeson, Robert (1997), “The Political Economy of the Inflation-unemployment Trade-off”, History of Political Economy29 (1): 117–156, doi:10.1215/00182702-29-1-117ISSN 0018-2702
  • McCaleb, Thomas S. (1986), “The Council of Economic Advisers after Forty Years”, Cato Journal6 (2): 685–693, ISSN 0273-3072
  • Norton, Hugh S. (1977), The Employment Act and the Council of Economic Advisers, 1946–1976, Columbia: University of South Carolina Press, ISBN 0-87249-296-6
  • Salant, Walter S. (1973), “Some Intellectual Contributions of the Truman Council of Economic Advisers to Policy-making”, History of Political Economy5 (1): 36–49, doi:10.1215/00182702-5-1-36ISSN 0018-2702
  • Sobel, Robert (1988), Biographical Directory of the Council of Economic A dvisers, New York: Greenwood Press, ISBN 0-313-22554-0
  • Tobin, James; Weidenbaum, Murray, eds. (1988), Two Revolutions in Economic Policy: The First Economic Reports of Presidents Kennedy and Reagan, Cambridge: MIT Press, ISBN 0-262-70034-4
  • Wehrle, Edmund F. (2004), “Guns, Butter, Leon Keyserling, the AFL-CIO, and the Fate of Full-employment Economics”, Historian66 (4): 730–748, doi:10.1111/j.1540-6563.2004.00094.xISSN 0018-2370

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