The Pronk Pops Show 771, October 7, 2016, Story 1: Job Growth Slowing Down with 156,000 Non-farm Payroll Jobs in September and Uptick On U-3 Unemployment To 5% and Labor Participation Rate of 62. 9% With 94,184,000 Not In Labor Force — Heading For Another Recession? — Videos — Story 2: Will Fed Raise Fed Funds Target In December by .25% And Tip The Economy Into A Recession? Stagnation Then Stagflation — Buy Gold — Videos — Story 3: Tribute To Entrepreneurs — Restoring The American Dream — Videos

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Project_1

The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts

Pronk Pops Show 771: October 7, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 770: October 6, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 769: October 5, 2016 

Pronk Pops Show 768: October 3, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 767: September 30, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 766: September 29, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 765: September 28, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 764: September 27, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 763: September 26, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 762: September 23, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 761: September 22, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 760: September 21, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 759: September 20, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 758: September 19, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 757: September 16, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 756: September 15, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 755: September 14, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 754: September 13, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 753: September 12, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 752: September 9, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 751: September 8, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 750: September 7, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 749: September 2, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 748: September 1, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 747: August 31, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 746: August 30, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 745: August 29, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 744: August 26, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 743: August 25, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 742: August 24, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 741: August 23, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 740: August 22, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 739: August 18, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 738: August 17, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 737: August 16, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 736: August 15, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 735: August 12, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 734: August 11, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 733: August 9, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 732: August 8, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 731: August 4, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 730: August 3, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 729: August 1, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 728: July 29, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 727: July 28, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 726: July 27, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 725: July 26, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 724: July 25, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 723: July 22, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 722: July 21, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 721: July 20, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 720: July 19, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 719: July 18, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 718: July 15, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 717: July 14, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 716: July 13, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 715: July 12, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 714: July 7, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 713: July 6, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 712: July 5, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 711: July 1, 2016

Story 1: Job Growth Slowing Down with 156,000 Non-farm Payroll Jobs in September and Uptick On U-3 Unemployment To 5% and Labor Participation Rate of 62. 9% With 94,184,000 Not In Labor Force — Heading For Another Recession? — Videos

What’s the fallout from the jobs report?

Breaking down the September jobs report

What the September jobs report means for a rate hike

U.S. Jobs Report: 156,000 New Jobs Added In September

‘Boring’ Jobs Report May Be New Normal

.

Ep. 201: September Jobs Report Even Weaker Than It Appears

McCullough: Why Mainstream Media Is Wrong About Today’s Jobs Report

‘Macro Mentoring’ With Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough : Session 4

Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP

The ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate for October 2016 is 23.0%

Alternate Unemployment Charts

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

1-Month Net Change

Series Id:     CES0000000001
Seasonally Adjusted
Series Title:  All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted
Super Sector:  Total nonfarm
Industry:      Total nonfarm
NAICS Code:    -
Data Type:     ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1980 129 80 112 -144 -431 -320 -262 260 113 281 257 195
1981 94 68 105 73 10 197 112 -36 -87 -99 -209 -278
1982 -326 -5 -130 -280 -45 -243 -342 -158 -181 -277 -123 -14
1983 224 -75 172 276 277 379 418 -308 1115 271 353 356
1984 446 481 275 363 308 379 313 242 310 286 349 128
1985 266 124 346 196 274 146 190 193 203 188 209 167
1986 125 107 94 187 127 -94 318 114 347 186 186 205
1987 172 232 249 338 226 172 347 171 228 492 232 294
1988 94 453 276 245 229 363 222 124 339 268 339 290
1989 262 258 193 173 118 116 40 49 250 111 277 96
1990 335 249 214 40 151 24 -32 -216 -89 -159 -150 -56
1991 -120 -305 -158 -211 -125 97 -40 10 32 17 -58 26
1992 52 -63 54 159 126 68 71 138 36 182 136 212
1993 309 242 -49 308 266 182 301 156 240 286 263 312
1994 271 200 465 350 333 315 373 282 353 213 420 277
1995 324 204 221 162 -15 234 96 253 244 153 149 133
1996 -19 432 267 163 322 287 249 179 225 250 299 171
1997 234 303 316 292 260 266 306 -31 512 340 306 303
1998 276 196 151 280 404 219 129 342 223 199 282 346
1999 126 410 107 376 211 260 326 160 214 400 293 296
2000 230 130 468 287 227 -47 176 -10 136 -14 226 142
2001 -26 72 -25 -281 -38 -131 -112 -157 -240 -325 -293 -170
2002 -138 -134 -20 -79 -7 57 -85 -14 -59 126 10 -157
2003 92 -150 -209 -44 -8 9 24 -42 104 198 17 122
2004 162 46 332 249 308 76 44 121 164 346 64 130
2005 134 239 136 365 174 247 376 194 68 85 337 159
2006 278 316 281 183 23 82 207 181 158 4 208 171
2007 240 90 189 79 143 78 -33 -24 88 85 115 97
2008 19 -86 -78 -210 -185 -165 -209 -266 -452 -473 -769 -695
2009 -791 -703 -823 -686 -351 -470 -329 -212 -219 -200 -7 -279
2010 28 -69 163 243 522 -133 -70 -34 -52 257 123 88
2011 42 188 225 346 73 235 70 107 246 202 146 207
2012 338 257 239 75 115 87 143 190 181 132 149 243
2013 190 311 135 192 218 146 140 269 185 189 291 45
2014 187 168 272 310 213 306 232 218 286 200 331 292
2015 221 265 84 251 273 228 277 150 149 295 280 271
2016 168 233 186 144 24 271 252 167(P) 156(P)
P : preliminary

Civilian Labor Force Level

159,907,000

Series Id:           LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 142267(1) 142456 142434 142751 142388 142591 142278 142514 142518 142622 142962 143248
2001 143800 143701 143924 143569 143318 143357 143654 143284 143989 144086 144240 144305
2002 143883 144653 144481 144725 144938 144808 144803 145009 145552 145314 145041 145066
2003 145937(1) 146100 146022 146474 146500 147056 146485 146445 146530 146716 147000 146729
2004 146842(1) 146709 146944 146850 147065 147460 147692 147564 147415 147793 148162 148059
2005 148029(1) 148364 148391 148926 149261 149238 149432 149779 149954 150001 150065 150030
2006 150214(1) 150641 150813 150881 151069 151354 151377 151716 151662 152041 152406 152732
2007 153144(1) 152983 153051 152435 152670 153041 153054 152749 153414 153183 153835 153918
2008 154063(1) 153653 153908 153769 154303 154313 154469 154641 154570 154876 154639 154655
2009 154210(1) 154538 154133 154509 154747 154716 154502 154307 153827 153784 153878 153111
2010 153484(1) 153694 153954 154622 154091 153616 153691 154086 153975 153635 154125 153650
2011 153263(1) 153214 153376 153543 153479 153346 153288 153760 154131 153961 154128 153995
2012 154351(1) 154695 154768 154557 154859 155084 154943 154753 155168 155539 155356 155597
2013 155666(1) 155313 155034 155365 155483 155753 155662 155568 155749 154694 155352 155083
2014 155285(1) 155560 156187 155376 155511 155684 156090 156080 156129 156363 156442 156142
2015 157025(1) 156878 156890 157032 157367 156984 157115 157061 156867 157096 157367 157833
2016 158335(1) 158890 159286 158924 158466 158880 159287 159463 159907
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Labor Force Participation Rate

62.8%

Series Id:           LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Employment Level

151,968,000

Series Id:           LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 136559(1) 136598 136701 137270 136630 136940 136531 136662 136893 137088 137322 137614
2001 137778 137612 137783 137299 137092 136873 137071 136241 136846 136392 136238 136047
2002 135701 136438 136177 136126 136539 136415 136413 136705 137302 137008 136521 136426
2003 137417(1) 137482 137434 137633 137544 137790 137474 137549 137609 137984 138424 138411
2004 138472(1) 138542 138453 138680 138852 139174 139556 139573 139487 139732 140231 140125
2005 140245(1) 140385 140654 141254 141609 141714 142026 142434 142401 142548 142499 142752
2006 143150(1) 143457 143741 143761 144089 144353 144202 144625 144815 145314 145534 145970
2007 146028(1) 146057 146320 145586 145903 146063 145905 145682 146244 145946 146595 146273
2008 146378(1) 146156 146086 146132 145908 145737 145532 145203 145076 144802 144100 143369
2009 142152(1) 141640 140707 140656 140248 140009 139901 139492 138818 138432 138659 138013
2010 138438(1) 138581 138751 139297 139241 139141 139179 139438 139396 139119 139044 139301
2011 139250(1) 139394 139639 139586 139624 139384 139524 139942 140183 140368 140826 140902
2012 141596(1) 141877 142050 141916 142204 142387 142281 142278 143028 143404 143345 143298
2013 143249(1) 143359 143352 143622 143842 144003 144300 144284 144447 143537 144555 144684
2014 145092(1) 145185 145772 145677 145792 146214 146438 146464 146834 147374 147389 147439
2015 148104(1) 148231 148333 148509 148748 148722 148866 149043 148942 149197 149444 149929
2016 150544(1) 151074 151320 151004 151030 151097 151517 151614 151968

Employment-Population Ratio

59.8%

Series Id:           LNS12300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Employment-Population Ratio
Labor force status:  Employment-population ratio
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.4 64.5 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.3 64.4
2001 64.4 64.3 64.3 64.0 63.8 63.7 63.7 63.2 63.5 63.2 63.0 62.9
2002 62.7 63.0 62.8 62.7 62.9 62.7 62.7 62.7 63.0 62.7 62.5 62.4
2003 62.5 62.5 62.4 62.4 62.3 62.3 62.1 62.1 62.0 62.1 62.3 62.2
2004 62.3 62.3 62.2 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.3 62.5 62.4
2005 62.4 62.4 62.4 62.7 62.8 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.8
2006 62.9 63.0 63.1 63.0 63.1 63.1 63.0 63.1 63.1 63.3 63.3 63.4
2007 63.3 63.3 63.3 63.0 63.0 63.0 62.9 62.7 62.9 62.7 62.9 62.7
2008 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.5 62.4 62.2 62.0 61.9 61.7 61.4 61.0
2009 60.6 60.3 59.9 59.8 59.6 59.4 59.3 59.1 58.7 58.5 58.6 58.3
2010 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.7 58.6 58.5 58.5 58.6 58.5 58.3 58.2 58.3
2011 58.3 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.3 58.2 58.2 58.3 58.4 58.4 58.6 58.6
2012 58.4 58.5 58.6 58.5 58.5 58.6 58.5 58.4 58.7 58.8 58.7 58.6
2013 58.5 58.6 58.5 58.6 58.6 58.6 58.7 58.7 58.7 58.3 58.6 58.6
2014 58.8 58.8 59.0 58.9 58.9 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.1 59.3 59.2 59.2
2015 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.5
2016 59.6 59.8 59.9 59.7 59.7 59.6 59.7 59.7 59.8

Unemployment Level

7,939,000

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

HOUSEHOLD DATA
Summary table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
Category Sept.
2015
July
2016
Aug.
2016
Sept.
2016
Change from:
Aug.
2016-
Sept.
2016

Employment status

Civilian noninstitutional population

251,325 253,620 253,854 254,091 237

Civilian labor force

156,867 159,287 159,463 159,907 444

Participation rate

62.4 62.8 62.8 62.9 0.1

Employed

148,942 151,517 151,614 151,968 354

Employment-population ratio

59.3 59.7 59.7 59.8 0.1

Unemployed

7,925 7,770 7,849 7,939 90

Unemployment rate

5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 0.1

Not in labor force

94,458 94,333 94,391 94,184 -207

Unemployment rates

Total, 16 years and over

5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 0.1

Adult men (20 years and over)

4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 0.2

Adult women (20 years and over)

4.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 -0.1

Teenagers (16 to 19 years)

16.2 15.6 15.7 15.8 0.1

White

4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 0.0

Black or African American

9.2 8.4 8.1 8.3 0.2

Asian

3.7 3.8 4.2 3.9 -0.3

Hispanic or Latino ethnicity

6.4 5.4 5.6 6.4 0.8

Total, 25 years and over

4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 0.1

Less than a high school diploma

7.7 6.3 7.2 8.5 1.3

High school graduates, no college

5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 0.1

Some college or associate degree

4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 -0.1

Bachelor’s degree and higher

2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 -0.2

Reason for unemployment

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs

3,883 3,739 3,791 3,967 176

Job leavers

778 824 885 893 8

Reentrants

2,443 2,298 2,271 2,333 62

New entrants

832 826 861 805 -56

Duration of unemployment

Less than 5 weeks

2,373 2,160 2,290 2,574 284

5 to 14 weeks

2,211 2,266 2,329 2,234 -95

15 to 26 weeks

1,228 1,150 1,056 1,157 101

27 weeks and over

2,109 2,020 2,006 1,974 -32

Employed persons at work part time

Part time for economic reasons

6,034 5,940 6,053 5,894 -159

Slack work or business conditions

3,563 3,642 3,727 3,618 -109

Could only find part-time work

2,123 1,981 1,929 1,969 40

Part time for noneconomic reasons

19,997 20,717 20,523 20,688 165

Persons not in the labor force (not seasonally adjusted)

Marginally attached to the labor force

1,921 1,950 1,713 1,844

Discouraged workers

635 591 576 553

– Over-the-month changes are not displayed for not seasonally adjusted data.
NOTE: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted

ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Summary table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
Category Sept.
2015
July
2016
Aug.
2016(p)
Sept.
2016(p)

EMPLOYMENT BY SELECTED INDUSTRY
(Over-the-month change, in thousands)

Total nonfarm

149 252 167 156

Total private

162 221 144 167

Goods-producing

-12 14 -25 10

Mining and logging

-13 -4 -4 0

Construction

10 16 -5 23

Manufacturing

-9 2 -16 -13

Durable goods(1)

-7 4 -17 -11

Motor vehicles and parts

4.2 5.8 -4.6 -3.1

Nondurable goods

-2 -2 1 -2

Private service-providing

174 207 169 157

Wholesale trade

-1.0 3.0 4.7 9.7

Retail trade

6.4 12.9 20.9 22.0

Transportation and warehousing

4.4 12.2 18.6 -9.0

Utilities

-0.1 0.6 -0.8 0.4

Information

13 -5 -4 1

Financial activities

3 17 13 6

Professional and business services(1)

40 84 31 67

Temporary help services

7.5 15.8 -1.0 23.2

Education and health services(1)

55 42 57 29

Health care and social assistance

46.9 52.1 45.3 21.8

Leisure and hospitality

50 36 21 15

Other services

4 4 8 15

Government

-13 31 23 -11

(3-month average change, in thousands)

Total nonfarm

192 182 230 192

Total private

177 153 201 177

WOMEN AND PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES
AS A PERCENT OF ALL EMPLOYEES(2)

Total nonfarm women employees

49.4 49.6 49.7 49.7

Total private women employees

47.9 48.2 48.2 48.2

Total private production and nonsupervisory employees

82.4 82.4 82.3 82.3

HOURS AND EARNINGS
ALL EMPLOYEES

Total private

Average weekly hours

34.5 34.4 34.3 34.4

Average hourly earnings

$25.14 $25.71 $25.73 $25.79

Average weekly earnings

$867.33 $884.42 $882.54 $887.18

Index of aggregate weekly hours (2007=100)(3)

104.1 105.6 105.4 105.8

Over-the-month percent change

-0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.4

Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2007=100)(4)

125.1 129.7 129.6 130.5

Over-the-month percent change

-0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.7

DIFFUSION INDEX
(Over 1-month span)(5)

Total private (262 industries)

52.9 61.5 59.0 57.8

Manufacturing (79 industries)

38.6 48.1 46.8 39.2

Footnotes
(1) Includes other industries, not shown separately.
(2) Data relate to production employees in mining and logging and manufacturing, construction employees in construction, and nonsupervisory employees in the service-providing industries.
(3) The indexes of aggregate weekly hours are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate hours by the corresponding annual average aggregate hours.
(4) The indexes of aggregate weekly payrolls are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate weekly payrolls by the corresponding annual average aggregate weekly payrolls.
(5) Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.
(p) Preliminary

NOTE: Data have been revised to reflect March 2015 benchmark levels and updated seasonal adjustment factors.

National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2016 (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2016 (Revised Estimate)
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2016
(table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first
quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the
"second" estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.1 percent.
With the third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the
same. The most notable change from the second to third estimate is that nonresidential fixed
investment increased in the second quarter; in the previous estimate, nonresidential fixed investment
decreased (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).
Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 0.2 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 0.8 percent in the first. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of
U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 0.6 percent in the second quarter,
compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These were partly offset
by negative contributions from private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and
local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table
2).

The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in PCE and
upturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports. These were partly offset by a larger decrease
in private inventory investment, downturns in state and local government spending and in residential
fixed investment, and an upturn in imports.

Current-dollar GDP increased 3.7 percent, or $168.5 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $18,450.1
billion (table 1 and table 3). In the first quarter, current dollar GDP increased 1.3 percent, or $58.8
billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared
with an increase of 0.2 percent in the first (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.0 percent,
compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index
increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent (appendix table A).


Updates to GDP

The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to
nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports. For more information, see
the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, see the “Additional Information” section that
follows.


                                           Advance Estimate          Second Estimate            Third Estimate

                                                         (Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP                                         1.2                       1.1                        1.4
Current-dollar GDP                               3.5                       3.4                        3.7
Real GDI                                         ---                       0.2                       -0.2
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI                 ---                       0.6                        0.6
Gross domestic purchases price index             2.0                       2.1                        2.1
PCE price index                                  1.9                       2.0                        2.0


Corporate Profits (table 12)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital
consumption adjustment) decreased $12.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of
$66.0 billion in the first.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $5.6 billion in the second quarter, compared with
an increase of $8.1 billion in the first. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $56.1
billion, in contrast to an increase of $84.8 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased
$38.0 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $26.9 billion. This measure is calculated as the difference
between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world. In the second
quarter, receipts increased $37.5 billion, and payments decreased $0.5 billion.



                                                 *          *          *

                                   Next release:  October 28, 2016 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
                             Gross Domestic Product:  Third Quarter 2016 (Advance Estimate)
                         
                                                 *          *          *


                                                 Additional Information

Resources

Additional Resources available at www.bea.gov:
•	Stay informed about BEA developments by reading the BEA blog, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, 
or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News.
•	Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application.
•	Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API).
•	For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business.
•	BEA's news release scheduleNIPA Handbook:  Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy
less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal
consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and
government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP.
In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. In practice, GDP and GDI differ
because they are constructed using largely independent source data. Real GDI is calculated by deflating
gross domestic income using the GDP price index as the deflator, and is therefore conceptually
equivalent to real GDP.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is,
at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”
Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.
The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by
U.S. residents.

The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services
purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons.”

Profits from current production, referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment
(IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj) in the NIPAs, is a measure of the net income of
corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services
measured in GDP. The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and
depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic
measures used in the national income and product accounts.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.


Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR), unless
otherwise specified. Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For
detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Percent changes in quarterly series are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual
rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index
numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are
calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent
periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by
multiplying the published quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2009) and
then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels
are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding.

Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those
of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a “residual” line shows the difference
between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.


Updates to GDP

BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  "Advance" estimates are
released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data
that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates
are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed
and more comprehensive data as they become available.

Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at
least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available
major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.
Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major
periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.
The table below shows the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real GDP between
different estimate vintages, without regard to sign.

Vintage                               Average Revision Without Regard to Sign
                                         (percentage points, annual rates)
Advance to second                                     0.5
Advance to third                                      0.6
Second to third                                       0.2
Advance to latest                                     1.2
Note - Based on estimates from 1993 through 2014. For more information on GDP updates, see Revision
Information on the BEA Web site.

The larger average revision from the advance to the latest estimate reflects the fact that periodic
comprehensive updates include major statistical and methodological improvements.

Unlike GDP, an advance current quarterly estimate of GDI is not released because data on domestic
profits and on net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these
data are not available until the third estimate.

http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/GDP/GDPnewsrelease.htm

Story 2: Will Fed Raise Fed Funds Target In December by .25% And Tip The Economy Into A Recession?  Stagnation Then Stagflation — Buy Gold — Videos

Image result for federal funds target rate history

Image result for federal funds target rate history through october 2016

Image result for federal reserve system balance sheet over time 2000-2015

Image result for federal funds target rate history through october 2016

YELLEN on U.S. ECONOMY – U.S. Interest Rate Hike Likely During End of 2016

Stockman: Recession by the end of year

Rates could go up in December: Federal Reserve Vice Chair

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks About Interest Rate Decision FOMC News Conference Sept 2016

Fed Chair Yellen Speaks About Interest Rate Decision (Full FOMC News Conference – Sept. 2016)

A Conversation with the Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen

Story 3: Tribute To Entrepreneurs — Restoring The American Dream — Videos

Tribute to Entrepreneurs – Part I

Tribute to Entrepreneurs – Part II

Entrepreneur Inspiration

DNA of an Entrepreneur

50 Entrepreneurs share priceless advice

Richard Branson: Advice for Entrepreneurs

The 15 Characteristics of Effective Entrepreneurs

How to be an Entrepreneur

Donald Trump’s Top 10 Rules For Success (@realDonaldTrump)

Donald Trump & Robert Kiyosaki: The Keys to Succcess as an Entrepreneur

What’s Killing the American Dream?

FairTax: Fire Up Our Economic Engine (Official HD)

Do the Rich Pay Their Fair Share?

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The Pronk Pops Show 413, February 9, 2015, Story 1: The Coming Political Crisis in The United States: Alan Greenspan: “I’m afraid (the US is) going to run into some form of political crisis”

Posted on February 9, 2015. Filed under: American History, Banking System, Blogroll, Budgetary Policy, Business, College, Consitutional Law, Economics, Education, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, Food, Government, Government Dependency, Government Spending, History, Illegal Immigration, Immigration, Investments, Labor Economics, Law, Legal Immigration, Media, Monetary Policy, Philosophy, Photos, Politics, Scandals, Security, Success, Tax Policy, Taxation, Taxes, Terror, Terrorism, Unemployment, United States Constitution, Videos, Violence, War, Wealth, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

Project_1

The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts

Pronk Pops Show 413: February 9, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 412: February 6, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 411: February 5, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 410: February 4, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 409: February 3, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 408: February 2, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 407: January 30, 2015

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Pronk Pops Show 399: January 16, 2015

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Pronk Pops Show 364: November 5, 2014

Pronk Pops Show 363: November 4, 2014

Pronk Pops Show 362: November 3, 2014

Story 1: The Coming Political Crisis in The United States: Alan Greenspan: “I’m afraid (the US is) going to run into some form of political crisis”

Alan_Greenspanthe map and terroritory 2.0Alan Greenspan The Map and The Territoryalan greenspan ybl_federal_budget_breakdown

chart

ar Chart Data Source: Monthly Treasury Statement (MTS) published by the U. S. Treasury Department. WE DON’T MAKE THIS UP! IT COMES FROM THE U. S. GOVERNMENT! NO ADJUSTMENTS.

The MTS published in October, reports the final actual expenditures for the previous FY. This chart shows FY2014 actual spending data. Here is the link to download your own copy from the Treasury Department web site.

The chart normally shows the proposed budget line for the next fiscal year (FY2015 started 1 October 2014), but Congress has not passed a “budget” for FY2015; we’re still using continuing resolutions to fund the federal government.

President Obama has submitted his proposed FY2016 Budget to Congress. Here are some highlights. … HUGE tax increases!

The Congressional Budget Office reported on the Federal Debt and the Risk of a Financial Crisis in this report on the non-budget.

NDAC Challenge: Look at the bar chart to find items that are growing and items that are being reduced. Example: One of the largest growth departments is at the Department of Agriculture; it handles Food Stamps (SNAP). You pay taxes, your money is paying for food stamps.

– – – – – – –

Here is a MUST SEE … The Budget in Pictures!

NDAC studies the Budget Proposals submitted to the U.S. Senate each year by the President of the United States and by the House of Representatives. The budget submissions include Budget Historical Tables published by OMB. Expenditures are shown in Table 4.1, scroll way right to find current years actuals and estimates. Our analysis is discussed on the home page of this web site.

http://federalbudget.com/chartinfo.html

U.S. Debt Clock

US-Debt

annual-US-federal-government-budget-surplus-or-deficit-1967-2009 CBO Deficitsdeficits return to trillionsdeficitsexhibit-1-9-12-2014year-over-year-changes-in-us-national-debt-fy2000-fy2014-652x473Charts_1-22-10

Federal Budget in Pictureswhere-did-your-tax-dollar-go-600
budget-entitlement-programs-680impact-medicare-spending-growth-680spending-cuts-680income-tax-receipts-680corporate-tax-rate-680

Alan Greenspan: “I’m afraid (the US is) going to run into some form of political crisis

Greece Will Eventually Leave the Euro – Alan Greenspan Head of US Central Bank Eurozone Crisis

Alan Greenspan: Structure of the Oil Market Has Changed

Alan Greenspan on what’s wrong with the world economy – Newsnight

Alan Greenspan on Central Banks, Stagnation, and Gold

Alan Greenspan, former chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, joins Gillian Tett, U.S. managing editor at the Financial Times, to discuss current trends in the global economy and solutions for addressing the financial crisis.

Alan Greenspan on Central Banks, Stagnation, and Gold

Alan Greenspan on Gold and The Federal Reserves inability to stop QE

Milton Friedman on the Federal Reserve System

Milton Friedman – Abolish The Fed

Fmr. Lt. Col. Bill Cowan on Fox News – ” Lie Shows Brian Williams Doesn’t Respect the Military “

Ron Paul and Milton Friedman Libertarianism: Abolish the Fed

Obama at Prayer Breakfast Speech | People Committed Terrible Deeds in Name of Christ During Crusades

Obama Compares ISIS To Violence Of Crusades, Inquisition

A Surplus of Fun Factoids About the Federal Deficit!

By Fisher Investments Editorial Staff

When your next dinner party conversation turns, inevitably, to public finance, here are a few fun factoids you can “Wow!” all your guests with.

Thursday, the US Treasury reported that with 11 months of fiscal year 2014 in the books, the US deficit fell again on a year-over-year basis, to $589.5 billion—a 58% reduction from the peak, fiscal 2009’s $1.42 trillion. August 2014’s deficit was $128 billion, and the news media picked up the story, reporting it for what it is—a 13% year-over-year reduction in the deficit and just moved on. Of the last 30 Septembers, 24 posted a monthly surplus—so it seems likely even that $589.5 billion figure could drop. Perhaps to match the Congressional Budget Office’s (CBO’s) $506 billion forecast made last month! Absent were fears the US would morph into the next Greece, without the fun ruins.[i] Absent also were claims American austerity would crush demand. So what gives? Simple—sentiment is slowly catching up with reality, and the deficit is one way to see it.

In fiscal year 2007, the US federal government spent $162 billion more than it took in. But when recession arrived the following fiscal year, deficits rose to $455 billion, based on a slight dip in revenue and increased spending. The following year, fiscal 2009, crisis response boosted spending sharply, in the form of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (fiscal stimulus) and spending associated with other crisis response programs. Meanwhile, the feds’ tax receipts fell by $419 billion. The combination resulted in surging deficits, which peaked at more than $1.4 trillion. Exhibit 1 shows the progression from Fiscal 2007’s pre-recession low through the present.

Exhibit 1: US Federal Deficit Through 11 Months and Full Fiscal Year, Fiscal Years 2007 – 2014

Source: US Bureau of the Fiscal Service, a very special branch of the Treasury. The US fiscal year runs from October 1 to September 30. 2014 figure is the Congressional Budget Office’s estimate of 2014 full-year deficit.

It’s where those lines go way up that the debate really began. 2009 was the first ever fiscal year with deficits in 13 digits. 2009’s 9.8% deficit-to-GDP ratio was the highest since 1944, when spending surged on military equipment for WWII.[ii] (Exhibit 2) And hey, $1 trillion is a big number, a big round number, which the media really has a penchant for. Fears of higher interest rates and inflation—which seem wildly off today—were rampant. Fears remained high in 2010, 2011 and 2012 while the feds ran annual deficits exceeding $1 trillion for four years. Frequently, folks claimed America was going Greek.[iii]

Exhibit 2: US Federal Deficit as a Percent of GDP for Fiscal Years 2007 – 2014 (Estimated)

Source: Congressional Budget Office, White House Office of Management and Budget. 2014 figure is the CBO’s official estimate published in August 2014.

But the tide turned in fiscal 2012, and the deficit—both as a percent of GDP and in absolute figures—began falling fast. That year, the deficit fell by around $330 billion from its 2009 peak. The next year, fiscal 2013, deficits dropped $409 billion, or 38%. The big reductions spurred major blowback from those who thought US demand needed government help. Heck, many even argued the US didn’t do enough in 2009, when deficits ran $1.4 trillion! Yet there is near total radio silence from the commentariat today, this despite the fact deficits have now fallen by nearly $1 trillion.

But it isn’t really so odd when you consider what has caused this fast deficit reduction: Tax revenue is way, way up. That’s no doubt in part due to tax rate increases, but those are only on the fringe. The really big factor is the economy is growing, which kind of crushes both the fears we’re turning Greek and we lack domestic demand. After all, as Exhibit 3 shows, we’ve dialed back the deficit without dialing down spending much at all.

Exhibit 3: Federal Receipts and Outlays, Fiscal Years 1985 – 2013

Source: Bureau of the Fiscal Service.


[i] Or Yanni.

[ii] An interesting factoid for you to WOW your friends with: The US spent $1.7 billion on national defense in 1940. In the next five years, it spent a total of $261 billion. Some of our national debt today was originally issued as part of that rise in deficit spending. Which again, just interesting trivial factoid.

[iii] Not in the fun college way, either.

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Pronk Pops Show 106, April 26, 2013: Segment 0: 2.5% First Quarter 2013 Real Annual Growth in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) — Stagflation — Government GDP Calculation of Investment To Include Intangibles R&D — Videos

Posted on April 26, 2013. Filed under: American History, Books, Budgetary Policy, Business, Communications, Economics, Education, Employment, Energy, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, Foreign Policy, Government, Government Spending, History, Housing, Illegal Immigration, Immigration, Investments, Law, Legal Immigration, Media, Philosophy, Politics, Resources, Security, Tax Policy, Technology, Videos, War, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , |

Pronk Pops Show 106: April 26, 2013

Pronk Pops Show 105: April 19, 2013

Pronk Pops Show 104: April 12, 2013

Pronk Pops Show 103: March 28, 2013

Pronk Pops Show 102: March 15, 2013

Pronk Pops Show 101: March 8, 2013

Pronk Pops Show 100: March 1, 2013

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 106

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gdp_large

Ken Langone: Regulation Biggest Issue Hurting U.S. Economy

April 26 (Bloomberg) — Ken Langone, founder & CEO at Invemed Associates, talks with Bloomberg’s Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen about first-quarter U.S. GDP, the impact of regulations and the anti-business stance of the Obama Administration. He speaks on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”

Peter Schiff We re in Depression, Dollar Crisis Coming

[

GDP Propaganda Exposed

Data shift to lift US economy 3%

By Robin Harding in Washington

The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties and spending on research and development.

Billions of dollars of intangible assets will enter the gross domestic product of the world’s largest economy in a revision aimed at capturing the changing nature of US output.

Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told the Financial Times that the update was the biggest since computer software was added to the accounts in 1999.

“We are carrying these major changes all the way back in time – which for us means to 1929 – so we are essentially rewriting economic history,” said Mr Moulton.

The changes will affect everything from the measured GDP of different US states to the stability of the inflation measure targeted by the Federal Reserve. They will force economists to revisit policy debates about everything from corporate profits to the causes of economic growth.

The revision, equivalent to adding a country as big as Belgium to the estimated size of the world economy, will make the US one of the first adopters of a new international standard for GDP accounting.

“We’re capitalising research and development and also this category referred to as entertainment, literary and artistic originals, which would be things like motion picture originals, long-lasting television programmes, books and sound recordings,” said Mr Moulton.

At present, R&D counts as a cost of doing business, so the final output of Apple iPads is included in GDP but the research done to create them is not. R&D will now count as an investment, adding a bit more than 2 per cent to the measured size of the economy.

GDP will soar in small states that host a lot of military R&D, but barely change in others, widening measured income gaps across the US. R&D is expected to boost the GDP of New Mexico by 10 per cent and Maryland by 6 per cent while Louisiana will see an increase of just 0.6 per cent.

Creative works are expected to add a further 0.5 per cent to the overall size of the US economy. Around one-third of that will come from movies, one-third from TV programmes, and one-third from books, music and theatre.

Deficits in defined benefit pension schemes will also be included because what companies have promised to pay out will be measured, rather than the cash they pay into plans.

“We will now show a liability for underfunded plans, which particularly has large ramifications for the government sector, where both at the state level and the federal level we have large underfunded plans,” said Mr Moulton.

The changes are in addition to a comprehensive revision of the national accounts that takes place every five years based on an economic census of nearly 4m US businesses.

Steve Landefeld, BEA director, said it was hard to predict the overall outcome given the mixture of new methodology and data updates. “What’s going to happen when you mix it with the new source data from the economic census . . . I don’t know,” he said.

But he said the revisions were unlikely to alter the picture of what has happened to the economy in recent years. “I wouldn’t be looking for large changes in trends or cycles.”

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/52d23fa6-aa98-11e2-bc0d-00144feabdc0.html#axzz2Rb5G6QBg

US GDP Will Be Revised Higher By $500 Billion Following Addition Of “Intangibles” To Economy

Submitted by Tyler Durden

Those who have been following the US debt to GDP ratio now that the US officially does not have a debt ceiling indefinitely, may have had the occasional panic attack seeing how this country’s leverage ratio is rapidly approaching that of a Troika case study of a PIIG in complete failure. And at 107% debt/GDP no explanations are necessary. Luckily, the official gatekeepers of America’s economic growth (with decimal point precision), the Bureau of Economic Analysis have a plan on how to make the US economy, which is now growing at an abysmal 1.5% annualized pace, or about 5 times slower than US debt growing at 7.5% annually, catch up: magically make up a number out of thin air, and add it to the total. And it literally is out of thin air: according to the FT the addition will constitute of a one-time addition of intangibles, amounting to 3% of total US GDP, or more than the size of Belgium at $500 billion, to the US economy.

From FT:

The US economy will officially become 3 per cent bigger in July as part of a shake-up that will see government statistics take into account 21st century components such as film royalties and spending on research and development.

Billions of dollars of intangible assets will enter the gross domestic product of the world’s largest economy in a revision aimed at capturing the changing nature of US output.

Brent Moulton, who manages the national accounts at the Bureau of Economic Analysis, told the Financial Times that the update was the biggest since computer software was added to the accounts in 1999.

“We are carrying these major changes all the way back in time – which for us means to 1929 – so we are essentially rewriting economic history,” said Mr Moulton.

What exactly will constitute GDP growth going forward? In a word, intangibles: films, books, magazines and iTunes songs.

“We’re capitalising research and development and also this category referred to as entertainment, literary and artistic originals, which would be things like motion picture originals, long-lasting television programmes, books and sound recordings,” said Mr Moulton.

At present, R&D counts as a cost of doing business, so the final output of Apple iPads is included in GDP but the research done to create them is not. R&D will now count as an investment, adding a bit more than 2 per cent to the measured size of the economy.

Nothing like adding intangibles in the fluid, ever-changing definition of what constitutes an economy.

Naturally, the only reason for this artificial “boost” to the US economy which apparently can be any old arbitrary number agreed upon by a few accountants, and which always goes up post revision, never down, is to make US debt/GDP under 100% once again, if only very briefly. Surely a few months later something else can be “added” to GDP making the US economy appear better than it is once more.

Finally, all of the above is a distraction for idiots.

As most people should know by know (this logically excludes economists), the only factor leading to economic “growth” is the expansion of liabilities of the financial system, whereby new credit (in a healthy environment, not one centrally-planned by several Princeton real-world rejects, where the central bank is forced to create all credit expansion with money that never leaves the banks and the capital markets closed loop) creates new money, creates demand for products and services, and circulates in the economy.

This can be seen in the chart below which shows the nearly perfect correlation between total bank liabilities in the US, as per the Fed’s Flow Of Funds report, and total US GDP.

Bottom line: the BEA can capitalize air consumption if it thinks it will make US GDP soar, but unless new credit and bank liabilities are created not due to forced supply but demand, and unless the private financial sector is finally willing to start lending money (which for the entire duration of QE it has not) US growth will stall and then proceed to decline.

Case in point: total US commerical bank loans are still lower than they were the day Lehman filed.

In other words, all the GDP “growth” since the Lehman failure has come on the back of money “created” by the Fed.

And there are still those who think the Fed will ever unwind…

http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2013-04-21/us-gdp-will-be-revised-higher-500-billion-following-addition-intangibles-economy

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EDT, FRIDAY, APRIL 26, 2013
BEA 13-18

* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables,
contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.

Lisa S. Mataloni: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) gdpniwd@bea.gov
Recorded message: (202) 606-5306
Jeannine Aversa: (202) 606-2649 (News Media)
National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product, First Quarter 2013 (advance estimate)
      Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.5 percent in the first quarter of 2013 (that
is, from the fourth quarter to the first quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the fourth quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

      The Bureau emphasized that the first-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source
data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3 and
"Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5).  The "second" estimate for the first quarter, based on
more complete data, will be released on May 30, 2013.

      The increase in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), private inventory investment, exports, residential investment,
and nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal
government spending and state and local government spending.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the
calculation of GDP, increased.

BOX_______________________
     Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and Product Accounts

     BEA plans to release the results of the 14th comprehensive (or benchmark) revision of the national
income and product accounts (NIPAs) in conjunction with the second quarter 2013 "advance" estimate
on July 31, 2013.  More information on the revision is available on BEA’s Web site at
www.bea.gov/gdp-revisions, including a link to an article in the March 2013 issue of the Survey of
Current Business that discusses the upcoming changes in definitions and presentations, including
capitalizing spending on research and development and on entertainment originals and measuring
transactions of defined benefit pension plans on an accrual accounting basis.  An article in the May
Survey will describe changes in statistical methods, and an article in the September Survey will describe
the estimates in detail.  Revised NIPA table stubs and news release stubs will be available in June.

FOOTNOTE___________________

      Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified.  Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates.  Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized.  "Real" estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars.  Price indexes are chain-type measures.

      This news release is available on www.bea.gov along with the Technical Note and highlights related to this release.
___________________________

      The acceleration in real GDP in the first quarter primarily reflected an upturn in private
inventory investment, an acceleration in PCE, an upturn in exports, and a smaller decrease in federal
government spending that were partly offset by an upturn in imports and a deceleration in nonresidential
fixed investment.

      Motor vehicle output added 0.24 percentage point to the first-quarter change in real GDP after
adding 0.18 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change.  Final sales of computers subtracted 0.01
percentage point from the first-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.10 percentage point to the
fourth-quarter change.

      The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent in the fourth.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3 percent in
the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the fourth.

      Real personal consumption expenditures increased 3.2 percent in the first quarter, compared with
an increase of 1.8 percent in the fourth.  Durable goods increased 8.1 percent, compared with an increase
of 13.6 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 1.0 percent, compared with an increase of 0.1 percent.
Services increased 3.1 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.

      Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 2.1 percent in the first quarter, compared with an
increase of 13.2 percent in the fourth.  Nonresidential structures decreased 0.3 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 16.7 percent.  Equipment and software increased 3.0 percent, compared with an increase of
11.8 percent.  Real residential fixed investment increased 12.6 percent, compared with an increase of
17.6 percent.

      Real exports of goods and services increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 2.8 percent in the fourth.  Real imports of goods and services increased 5.4 percent, in
contrast to a decrease of 4.2 percent.

      Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 8.4 percent
in the first quarter, compared with a decrease of 14.8 percent in the fourth.  National defense decreased
11.5 percent, compared with a decrease of 22.1 percent.  Nondefense decreased 2.0 percent, in contrast
to an increase of 1.7 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 1.2 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.5 percent.

      The change in real private inventories added 1.03 percentage points to the first-quarter change in
real GDP after subtracting 1.52 percentage points from the fourth-quarter change.  Private businesses
increased inventories $50.3 billion in the first quarter, following increases of $13.3 billion in the fourth
quarter and $60.3 billion in the third.

      Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.5
percent in the first quarter, compared with an increase of 1.9 percent in the fourth.

Gross domestic purchases

      Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 2.9 percent in the first quarter; it was unchanged in the fourth quarter.

Disposition of personal income

      Current-dollar personal income decreased $109.1 billion (3.2 percent) in the first quarter, in
contrast to an increase of $262.3 billion (8.1 percent) in the fourth.  The downturn in personal income
primarily reflected a sharp downturn in personal dividend income and a sharp acceleration in
contributions for government social insurance -- a subtraction in the calculation of personal income.
Fourth-quarter personal dividend income was boosted by the payment of accelerated and special
dividends. The acceleration in contributions for government social insurance in the first quarter resulted
from the expiration of the "payroll tax holiday."

      Personal current taxes increased $27.2 billion in the first quarter, compared with an increase of
$34.3 billion in the fourth.

      Disposable personal income decreased $136.3 billion (4.4 percent) in the first quarter, in contrast
to an increase of $228.0 billion (7.9 percent) in the fourth.  Real disposable personal income decreased
5.3 percent, in contrast to an increase of 6.2 percent.

      Personal outlays increased $116.3 billion (4.1 percent) in the first quarter, compared with an
increase of $97.0 billion (3.4 percent) in the fourth.  Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $313.3 billion in the first quarter, compared with $566.0 billion in the fourth.

      The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was
2.6 percent in the first quarter, compared with 4.7 percent in the fourth.  For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.

Current-dollar GDP

      Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
3.7 percent, or $146.1 billion, in the first quarter to a level of $16,010.2 billion.  In the fourth quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 1.3 percent, or $53.1 billion.

BOX_____________________
      Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site.  Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site.  In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."  For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
________________________

      BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.

                                           *          *          *

                              Next release -- May 30, 2013, at 8:30 A.M. EDT for:
                              Gross Domestic Product:  First Quarter 2013 (Second Estimate)
                              Corporate Profits:  First Quarter 2013 (Preliminary Estimate)

                                            Comparisons of Revisions to GDP

     Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule:  the "advance" estimate, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, is released near the end of the
first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
the "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.
The "latest"” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.

     Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried
out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data.  Comprehensive (or benchmark)
revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as
improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.
economy.

The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar
and of real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates.  From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one
month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the
advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point.  From the advance estimate to
the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points.  The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.2 percentage point, which is larger
than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates.  The larger average
revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as
the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts.  The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend
growth more than four-fifths of the time.

                           Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
                                                     [Annual rates]

       Vintages                                   Average         Average without     Standard deviation of
       compared                                                    regard to sign      revisions without
                                                                                         regard to sign

____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.2                 0.6                  0.4
Advance to third.....................                .1                  .7                   .4
Second to third......................                .0                  .3                   .2

Advance to latest....................                .3                 1.2                  1.0

________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.1                 0.5                  0.4
Advance to third.....................                .1                  .6                   .5
Second to third......................                .0                  .2                   .2

Advance to latest....................                .2                 1.3                  1.0

NOTE.  These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2009.

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Pronk Pops Show 96, February 1, 2013: Segment 1: The Shrinking Economy, Real GDP in Fourth Quarter Falls By More Than 3%–Videos

Posted on February 1, 2013. Filed under: American History, Budgetary Policy, College, Communications, Economics, Employment, Energy, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, Government, Government Spending, History, Illegal Immigration, Immigration, Labor Economics, Law, Media, Monetary Policy, Philosophy, Politics, Public Sector Unions, Regulation, Security, Success, Tax Policy, Technology, Unions, Videos, War, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

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Segment 1: The Shrinking Economy, Real GDP in Fourth Quarter Falls By More Than 3%–Videos

gdp_large

first_look_fourth_quarter

Table 1.1.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product

[Percent] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Last Revised on: January 30, 2013 – Next Release Date February 28, 2013

Line 2010 2011 2012
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV
1 Gross domestic product 2.3 2.2 2.6 2.4 0.1 2.5 1.3 4.1 2.0 1.3 3.1 -0.1
2 Personal consumption expenditures 2.5 2.6 2.5 4.1 3.1 1.0 1.7 2.0 2.4 1.5 1.6 2.2
3 Goods 5.2 3.3 3.8 7.9 5.4 -1.0 1.4 5.4 4.7 0.3 3.6 4.6
4 Durable goods 5.5 10.5 7.2 15.2 7.3 -2.3 5.4 13.9 11.5 -0.2 8.9 13.9
5 Nondurable goods 5.1 0.1 2.2 4.5 4.6 -0.3 -0.4 1.8 1.6 0.6 1.2 0.4
6 Services 1.2 2.3 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.9 1.8 0.3 1.3 2.1 0.6 0.9
7 Gross private domestic investment 19.8 14.6 16.4 -5.9 -5.3 12.5 5.9 33.9 6.1 0.7 6.6 -0.6
8 Fixed investment -0.9 14.5 -1.0 7.6 -1.3 12.4 15.5 10.0 9.8 4.5 0.9 9.7
9 Nonresidential 2.1 12.3 7.7 9.2 -1.3 14.5 19.0 9.5 7.5 3.6 -1.8 8.4
10 Structures -23.0 13.1 -2.2 9.3 -28.2 35.2 20.7 11.5 12.9 0.6 0.0 -1.1
11 Equipment and software 14.7 12.0 11.9 9.2 11.1 7.8 18.3 8.8 5.4 4.8 -2.6 12.4
12 Residential -11.4 23.1 -28.6 1.5 -1.4 4.1 1.4 12.1 20.5 8.5 13.5 15.3
13 Change in private inventories
14 Net exports of goods and services
15 Exports 5.9 9.6 9.7 10.0 5.7 4.1 6.1 1.4 4.4 5.3 1.9 -5.7
16 Goods 9.9 11.9 9.0 11.2 5.7 3.7 6.2 6.0 4.0 7.0 1.1 -7.9
17 Services -2.2 4.5 11.1 7.4 5.8 5.1 6.1 -8.8 5.2 1.1 4.0 -0.1
18 Imports 10.4 20.2 13.9 0.0 4.3 0.1 4.7 4.9 3.1 2.8 -0.6 -3.2
19 Goods 12.2 24.7 14.1 1.1 5.2 -0.7 2.9 6.3 2.0 2.9 -1.2 -2.7
20 Services 2.4 1.2 12.9 -5.0 -0.6 4.2 13.8 -1.7 9.0 2.3 2.6 -5.4
21 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment -3.1 2.8 -0.3 -4.4 -7.0 -0.8 -2.9 -2.2 -3.0 -0.7 3.9 -6.6
22 Federal 0.6 9.7 3.7 -4.1 -10.3 2.8 -4.3 -4.4 -4.2 -0.2 9.5 -15.0
23 National defense -3.7 7.3 7.2 -6.1 -14.3 8.3 2.6 -10.6 -7.1 -0.2 12.9 -22.2
24 Nondefense 10.1 14.6 -3.1 0.0 -1.7 -7.5 -17.4 10.2 1.8 -0.4 3.0 1.4
25 State and local -5.5 -1.4 -2.9 -4.6 -4.7 -3.2 -2.0 -0.7 -2.2 -1.0 0.3 -0.7
Addendum:
26 Gross domestic product, current dollars 3.9 4.1 4.6 4.5 2.2 5.2 4.3 4.2 4.2 2.8 5.9 0.5

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Background Articles and Videos

EMBARGOED UNTIL RELEASE AT 8:30 A.M. EST, WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 30, 2013

BEA 13-02

* See the navigation bar at the right side of the news release text for links to data tables, contact personnel and their telephone numbers, and supplementary materials.

<!—-><!—-><!—->

Lisa S. Mataloni: (202) 606-5304 (GDP) gdpniwd@bea.gov
Andrew Hodge: (202) 606-5564 (Profits) cpniwd@bea.gov
Recorded message: (202) 606-5306
Brent Moulton: (202) 606-9606 (Annual Revision)
Bob Kornfeld: (202) 606-9285
Ralph Stewart: (202) 606-2649 (News Media)
Jeannine Aversa: (202) 606-2649 (News Media)
National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product, 4th quarter and annual 2012 (advance estimate)
      Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- decreased at an annual rate of 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2012
(that is, from the third quarter to the fourth quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the third quarter, real GDP increased 3.1 percent.

      The Bureau emphasized that the fourth-quarter advance estimate released today is based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 4
and the "Comparisons of Revisions to GDP" on page 5).  The "second" estimate for the fourth quarter,
based on more complete data, will be released on February 28, 2013.

      The decrease in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected negative contributions from
private inventory investment, federal government spending, and exports that were partly offset by
positive contributions from personal consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment,
and residential fixed investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, decreased.

	The downturn in real GDP in the fourth quarter primarily reflected downturns in private
inventory investment, in federal government spending, in exports, and in state and local government
spending that were partly offset by an upturn in nonresidential fixed investment, a larger decrease in
imports, and an acceleration in PCE.

      Final sales of computers added 0.15 percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP
after adding 0.11 percentage point to the third-quarter change.  Motor vehicle output added 0.04
percentage point to the fourth-quarter change in real GDP after subtracting 0.25 percentage point from
the third-quarter change.

_____________
      FOOTNOTE.  Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise
specified.  Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates.  Percent
changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized.  "Real" estimates are in chained (2005)
dollars.  Price indexes are chain-type measures.

      This news release is available on www.bea.gov along with the Technical Notes and Highlights
related to this release.
_____________

      The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.3 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the third.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.1 percent in
the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 1.2 percent in the third.

      Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.2 percent in the fourth quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.6 percent in the third.  Durable goods increased 13.9 percent, compared with an
increase of 8.9 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 0.4 percent, compared with an increase of 1.2
percent.  Services increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6 percent.

      Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 8.4 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 1.8 percent in the third.  Nonresidential structures decreased 1.1 percent; it was unchanged
in the third quarter.  Equipment and software increased 12.4 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to a
decrease of 2.6 percent in the third.  Real residential fixed investment increased 15.3 percent, compared
with an increase of 13.5 percent.

      Real exports of goods and services decreased 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 1.9 percent in the third.  Real imports of goods and services decreased 3.2 percent, compared
with a decrease of 0.6 percent.

      Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 15.0 percent
in the fourth quarter, in contrast to an increase of 9.5 percent in the third.  National defense decreased
22.2 percent, in contrast to an increase of 12.9 percent.  Nondefense increased 1.4 percent, compared
with an increase of 3.0 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.7 percent, in contrast to an increase of 0.3 percent.

      The change in real private inventories subtracted 1.27 percentage points from the fourth-quarter
change in real GDP after adding 0.73 percentage point to the third-quarter change.  Private businesses
increased inventories $20.0 billion in the fourth quarter, following increases of $60.3 billion in the third
and $41.4 billion in the second.

      Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.1
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the third.

Gross domestic purchases

      Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 0.1 percent in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in the
third.

Disposition of personal income

      Current-dollar personal income increased $256.2 billion (7.9 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $72.7 billion (2.2 percent) in the third.  The acceleration in personal
income primarily reflected a sharp acceleration in personal dividend income, an upturn in personal
interest income, and an acceleration in wage and salary disbursements.   The sharp acceleration in
personal dividend income reflected accelerated and special dividends that were paid by many companies
in the fourth quarter in anticipation of changes in individual income tax rates.  The upturn in personal
interest income primarily reflected an upturn in interest rates for Treasury Inflation Protected Securities.
The acceleration in wages and salaries reflected the pattern of monthly Bureau of Labor Statistics
employment, hours, and earnings data for the fourth quarter, as well as a judgmental estimate of
accelerated compensation in the form of bonus payments and other irregular pay in the fourth quarter.

      Personal current taxes increased $21.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with an increase of
$10.0 billion in the third.

      Disposable personal income increased $235.2 billion (8.1 percent) in the fourth quarter,
compared with an increase of $62.7 billion (2.1 percent) in the third.  Real disposable personal income
increased 6.8 percent, compared with an increase of 0.5 percent.

      Personal outlays increased $95.0 billion (3.3 percent) in the fourth quarter, compared with an
increase of $88.6 billion (3.1 percent) in the third.  Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $570.0 billion in the fourth quarter, compared with $429.8 billion in the third.
The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 4.7
percent in the fourth quarter, compared with 3.6 percent in the third.  For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.

Current-dollar GDP

      Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
0.5 percent, or $18.0 billion, in the fourth quarter to a level of $15,829.0 billion.  In the third quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 5.9 percent, or $225.4 billion.

2012 GDP

	Real GDP increased 2.2 percent in 2012 (that is, from the 2011 annual level to the 2012 annual
level), compared with an increase of 1.8 percent in 2011.

      The increase in real GDP in 2012 primarily reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), nonresidential fixed investment, exports, residential fixed investment,
and private inventory investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from federal
government spending and from state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in
the calculation of GDP, increased.

      The acceleration in real GDP in 2012 primarily reflected a deceleration in imports, upturns in
residential fixed investment and in private inventory investment, and smaller decreases in state and local
government spending and in federal government spending that were partly offset by decelerations in
PCE, exports, and nonresidential fixed investment.

      The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.7 percent in 2012, compared with an
increase of 2.5 percent in 2011.

      Current-dollar GDP increased 4.0 percent, or $600.3 billion, in 2012, compared with an increase
of 4.0 percent, or $576.8 billion, in 2011.

      During 2012 (that is, measured from the fourth quarter of 2011 to the fourth quarter of 2012) real
GDP increased 1.5 percent.  Real GDP increased 2.0 percent during 2011.  The price index for gross
domestic purchases increased 1.5 percent during 2012, compared with an increase of 2.5 percent during
2011.

______________
      BOX.  Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note
that is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site.  Within a few days after the release, a detailed
"Key Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site.  In the middle of each month, an
analysis of the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site;
click on Survey of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."  For information on revisions, see
"Revisions to GDP, GDI, and Their Major Components."
______________

      BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.

                                         *          *          *

                           Next release -- February 28, 2013, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
                        Gross Domestic Product:  Fourth Quarter and Annual 2012 (Second Estimate)

Release Dates in 2013

           		2012: IV and 2012 annual    	2013: I     	2013: II          2013: III

Gross Domestic Product
Advance..........		January 30            	April 26	July 31		  October 30
Second...........		February 28          	May 30          August 29	  November 26
Third............ 		March 28                June 26     	September 26	  December 20

Corporate Profits
Preliminary......		........                May 30          August 29	  November 26
Revised.......... 		March 28                June 26         September 26	  December 20

                                        Comparisons of Revisions to GDP

     Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule:  the "advance" estimate, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, is released near the end of the
first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
the "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.
The "latest"” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.

     Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried
out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data.  Comprehensive (or benchmark)
revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as
improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.
economy.

The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar
and of real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates.  From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one
month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the
advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point.  From the advance estimate to
the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points.  The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.2 percentage point, which is larger
than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates.  The larger average
revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as
the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts.  The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend
growth more than four-fifths of the time.

                           Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
                                                     [Annual rates]

       Vintages                                   Average         Average without     Standard deviation of
       compared                                                    regard to sign      revisions without
                                                                                         regard to sign

____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.2                 0.6                  0.4
Advance to third.....................                .1                  .7                   .4
Second to third......................                .0                  .3                   .2

Advance to latest....................                .3                 1.2                  1.0

________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.1                 0.5                  0.4
Advance to third.....................                .1                  .6                   .5
Second to third......................                .0                  .2                   .2

Advance to latest....................                .2                 1.3                  1.0

NOTE.  These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2009.

Recovery Shows a Soft Spot

GDP Shrinks 0.1% on Government Cuts, but Consumer, Business Spending Offer Hope

By JOSH MITCHELL

“…The U.S. economy shrank for the first time in more than three years in the fourth quarter, underscoring the halting nature of the recovery. But the strength of consumer spending and business investment suggested that the economy will grow, albeit slowly, this year.

Gross domestic product—the broadest measure of goods and services churned out by the economy—fell at a 0.1% annual rate in the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the government’s initial estimate out Wednesday.

The details weren’t as discouraging as the headline. The drop, a surprise, was driven by a sharp fall in government spending and by businesses putting fewer goods on warehouse shelves, as well as by a decline in exports. The mainstays of the domestic private economy—housing, consumer spending and business investment in equipment and software—were stronger.

to the economy, even though it expected a return to moderate growth in the months ahead.

The U.S. joined other advanced economies in reporting contractions in the final months of last year. The U.K., Germany, Spain and Belgium have said their economies shrank in the fourth quarter, and several more euro-zone members in coming weeks are expected to report their own declines. Budget cuts appear to be a leading factor driving the contractions in many of those nations.

Deficit cutting in advanced economies is an important reason why global growth is expected to barely improve this year. The International Monetary Fund last week projected global growth of just 3.5% this year, a slight pickup from the estimated 3.2% growth in 2012, due partly to budget tightening in the U.S. and Europe. The International Monetary Fund expects advanced economies to expand just 1.4% this year, compared with 5.5% growth among developing economies.

[image]

Wednesday’s GDP report portrayed an economy stuck in low gear. For 2012, the economy grew 2.2%, up from the 1.8% growth of 2011, but still below the roughly 3% pace notched during healthier times.

For now, the economy is riding largely on the backs of consumers. Consumer spending, adjusted for inflation, increased at a 2.2% rate in the fourth quarter, up from 1.6% in the third. That included a jump in spending on durable goods, which are big-ticket items such as cars and refrigerators.

One thing that is helping consumers: They are starting to see substantial income gains after years of stagnation. The GDP report showed after-tax income rose at a rate of 6.8%, adjusted for inflation, the fastest pace since the recession.

One company benefiting from stronger consumer spending is Nando’s Peri-Peri USA, a closely held chain of chicken restaurants in the Washington, D.C., area. Same-store sales rose roughly 5% in the final months of 2012 compared with a year ago, said Chief Executive Burton Heiss.

Mr. Heiss said he believes consumers are feeling more secure as housing and other parts of the economy improve. Higher home prices, for example, might be giving consumers the confidence to spend more freely on going out. Mr. Heiss added that the strength seems to be continuing: Sales have picked up slightly since the start of the year.

U.S. companies stepped up investment in equipment and software during the quarter, with business investment rising at a rate of 8.4%, the strongest pace in a year. That defied expectations that companies would pull back due to worries over the “fiscal cliff” budget dispute in Washington.

Still, those factors weren’t strong enough to overcome declines in federal spending and exports and slower inventory growth.

The slower inventory investment was the biggest factor behind the contraction. Businesses essentially sold items from warehouse shelves, rather than placing new orders with manufacturers.

That may have been due to inventory accumulating too quickly last summer and some businesses becoming extra cautious about restocking. The upside is that with inventory levels now depleted, many businesses will be forced to replenish, possibly boosting growth in the current quarter.

Meanwhile, government spending, which has been a drag on growth for more than two years, declined for the ninth time in 10 quarters. The biggest cuts came in military spending, which tumbled at a rate of 22.2%, the largest drop since 1972. But state and local spending also fell, dashing hopes of stabilization after a rare increase in the third quarter.

Military analysts said the decline likely was a result of pressure on the Pentagon from a number of areas.

Among them: reductions in spending on the war in Afghanistan as it winds down, a downturn in planned military spending, a constraint placed on the Pentagon budget because the federal government is operating on short-term resolutions that limit spending growth, as well as concern that further cuts may be in the pipeline.

Pentagon officials already have imposed tighter controls on military spending to deal with the challenges.

David Berteau, a former Defense Department official who now heads the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said he was surprised by the sharp drop and predicted that persistent uncertainty about the defense budget would continue to be a drag on the national economy.

“Is this a blip in the data or is it a trend?” he said. “I think you’re seeing a trend.”

The effect of defense cuts on the economy in the fourth quarter likely raises the stakes of looming budget fights between the White House and congressional Republicans. The White House said the GDP report showed the need for Congress to avoid “self-inflicted wounds” and reach a deal.

Companies tied to the defense industry already are bracing for cuts.

Noel McCormick, president of McCormick Stevenson, a small engineering firm in Clearwater, Fla., that designs weapons for major defense contractors, said big clients have told him they may resort to layoffs and cut spending if cuts happen.

That would have a “tremendous” impact on McCormick’s 12-person company, he said, likely causing it to cut back as well.

“There is a great deal of angst associated in the coming months,” Mr. McCormick said.

—Sudeep Reddy, Jon Hilsenrath, Ben Casselman and Dion Nissenbaum contributed to this article.

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Segment 0: U.S. Real Gross Domestic Product Grew in 3rd Quarter at 2% Annual Rate–Prediction: Romney Wins With 53%–Obama Loses with 47% of Popular Vote–Videos

US growth up, but not enough to help Obama

The Politics Behind the Latest Government Economic Report

US GDP grows 2% ahead of presidential election

GDP Rises 2% in 3rd Quarter, Consumer Spending Increases

3XSQ: U.S. GDP expands 2%

National Income and Product Accounts Gross Domestic Product: Third Quarter 2012 (advance estimate)
      Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property
located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 2.0 percent in the third quarter of 2012 (that
is, from the second quarter to the third quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the
Bureau of Economic Analysis.  In the second quarter, real GDP increased 1.3 percent.

      The Bureau emphasized that the third-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source
data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see box below).  The
"second" estimate for the third quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on November 29,
2012.

      The increase in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from
personal consumption expenditures (PCE), federal government spending, and residential fixed
investment that were partly offset by negative contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed
investment, and private inventory investment.  Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of
GDP, decreased.

      The acceleration in real GDP in the third quarter primarily reflected an upturn in federal
government spending, a downturn in imports, an acceleration in PCE, a smaller decrease in private
inventory investment, an acceleration in residential fixed investment, and a smaller decrease in state and
local government spending that were partly offset by downturns in exports and in nonresidential fixed
investment.

____________

FOOTNOTE.  Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted
annual rates, unless otherwise specified.  Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes
are differences between these published estimates.  Percent changes are
calculated from unrounded data and are annualized.  "Real" estimates are in
chained (2005) dollars.  Price indexes are chain-type measures.

      This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlights related to this release.
____________

      Final sales of computers added 0.17 percentage point to the third-quarter change in real GDP
after subtracting 0.10 percentage point from the second-quarter change.  Motor vehicle output subtracted
0.47 percentage point from the third-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.20 percentage point to
the second-quarter change.

      The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents,
increased 1.5 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 0.7 percent in the second.
Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 1.3 percent in
the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.4 percent in the second.

      Real personal consumption expenditures increased 2.0 percent in the third quarter, compared
with an increase of 1.5 percent in the second.  Durable goods increased 8.5 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 0.2 percent.  Nondurable goods increased 2.4 percent, compared with an increase of 0.6
percent.  Services increased 0.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent.

      Real nonresidential fixed investment decreased 1.3 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 3.6 percent in the second.  Nonresidential structures decreased 4.4 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 0.6 percent.  Equipment and software decreased less than 0.1 percent, in contrast to an
increase of 4.8 percent.  Real residential fixed investment increased 14.4 percent, compared with an
increase of 8.5 percent.

      Real exports of goods and services decreased 1.6 percent in the third quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 5.3 percent in the second.  Real imports of goods and services decreased 0.2 percent, in
contrast to an increase of 2.8 percent.

      Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 9.6 percent
in the third quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent in the second.  National defense increased
13.0 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 0.2 percent.  Nondefense increased 3.0 percent, in contrast to a
decrease of 0.4 percent.  Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross
investment decreased 0.1 percent, compared with a decrease of 1.0 percent.

      The change in real private inventories subtracted 0.12 percentage point from the third-quarter
change in real GDP after subtracting 0.46 percentage point from the second-quarter change.  Farm
inventories subtracted 0.42 percentage point from the third-quarter change after subtracting 0.17
percentage point from the second-quarter change.  Nonfarm inventories added 0.30 percentage point to
the third-quarter change after subtracting 0.29 percentage point from the second-quarter change.

      Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 2.1
percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.7 percent in the second.

Gross domestic purchases

      Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever
produced -- increased 2.1 percent in the third quarter, compared with an increase of 1.0 percent in the
second.

Disposition of personal income

      Current-dollar personal income increased $89.3 billion (2.7 percent) in the third quarter,
compared with an increase of $130.3 billion (4.0 percent) in the second.

      Personal current taxes increased $13.2 billion in the third quarter, compared with an increase of
$20.2 billion in the second.

      Disposable personal income increased $76.1 billion (2.6 percent) in the third quarter, compared
with an increase of $110.0 billion (3.8 percent) in the second.  Real disposable personal income
increased 0.8 percent, compared with an increase of 3.1 percent.

      Personal outlays increased $111.4 billion (4.0 percent) in the third quarter, compared with an
increase of $57.4 billion (2.0 percent) in the second.  Personal saving -- disposable personal income less
personal outlays -- was $445.0 billion in the third quarter, compared with $480.3 billion in the second.
The personal saving rate -- personal saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 3.7
percent in the third quarter, compared with 4.0 percent in the second.  For a comparison of personal
saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve
Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to
www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.

Current-dollar GDP

      Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
5.0 percent, or $190.1 billion, in the third quarter to a level of $15,775.7 billion.  In the second quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 2.8 percent, or $107.3 billion.

______________

BOX.     Information on the assumptions used for unavailable source data is provided in a technical note that
is posted with the news release on BEA's Web site.  Within a few days after the release, a detailed "Key
Source Data and Assumptions" file is posted on the Web site.  In the middle of each month, an analysis of
the current quarterly estimate of GDP and related series is made available on the Web site; click on Survey
of Current Business, "GDP and the Economy."  For information on revisions, see "Revisions to GDP, GDI, and
Their Major Components."
______________

      BEA's national, international, regional, and industry estimates; the Survey of Current Business;
and BEA news releases are available without charge on BEA's Web site at www.bea.gov. By visiting the
site, you can also subscribe to receive free e-mail summaries of BEA releases and announcements.

                                        *          *          *

Next release -- November 29, 2012, at 8:30 A.M. EST for:
Gross Domestic Product:  Third Quarter 2012 (Second Estimate)
Corporate Profits:  Third Quarter (Preliminary Estimate)

                                        *          *          *

Release Dates in 2013

           	 2012: IV and 2012 annual    	2013: I     	2013: II          2013: III

Gross Domestic Product
Advance...		January 30            	April 26	July 31		  October 30
Second...		February 28          	May 30      	August 29	  November 26
Third... 		March 28             	June 26     	September 26	  December 20

Corporate Profits
Preliminary...          ........		May 30      	August 29	  November 26
Revised... 		March 28             	June 26     	September 26	  December 20

                                            Comparisons of Revisions to GDP

     Quarterly estimates of GDP are released on the following schedule:  the "advance" estimate, based on
source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency, is released near the end of the
first month after the end of the quarter; as more detailed and more comprehensive data become available,
the "second" and "third" estimates are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively.
The "latest"” estimate reflects the results of both annual and comprehensive revisions.

     Annual revisions, which generally cover the quarters of the 3 most recent calendar years, are usually carried
out each summer and incorporate newly available major annual source data.  Comprehensive (or benchmark)
revisions are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major periodic source data, as well as
improvements in concepts and methods that update the accounts to portray more accurately the evolving U.S.
economy.

The table below shows comparisons of the revisions between quarterly percent changes of current-dollar
and of real GDP for the different vintages of the estimates.  From the advance estimate to the second estimate (one
month later), the average revision to real GDP without regard to sign is 0.5 percentage point, while from the
advance estimate to the third estimate (two months later), it is 0.6 percentage point.  From the advance estimate to
the latest estimate, the average revision without regard to sign is 1.3 percentage points.  The average revision
(with regard to sign) from the advance estimate to the latest estimate is 0.2 percentage point, which is larger
than the average revisions from the advance estimate to the second or to the third estimates.  The larger average
revisions to the latest estimate reflect the fact that comprehensive revisions include major improvements, such as
the incorporation of BEA’s latest benchmark input-output accounts.  The quarterly estimates correctly indicate the
direction of change of real GDP 97 percent of the time, correctly indicate whether GDP is accelerating or
decelerating 72 percent of the time, and correctly indicate whether real GDP growth is above, near, or below trend
growth more than four-fifths of the time.

                           Revisions Between Quarterly Percent Changes of GDP: Vintage Comparisons
                                                     [Annual rates]

       Vintages                                   Average         Average without     Standard deviation of
       compared                                                    regard to sign      revisions without
                                                                                         regard to sign

____________________________________________________Current-dollar GDP_______________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.2                 0.6                  0.4
Advance to third.....................                .1                  .7                   .4
Second to third......................                .0                  .3                   .2

Advance to latest....................                .3                 1.2                  1.0

________________________________________________________Real GDP_____________________________________________________

Advance to second....................               0.1                 0.5                  0.4
Advance to third.....................                .1                  .6                   .5
Second to third......................                .0                  .2                   .2

Advance to latest....................                .2                 1.3                  1.0

NOTE.  These comparisons are based on the period from 1983 through 2009.
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