The Pronk Pops Show 1153, October 10, 2018, Breaking News — Story 1: Worst Storm in 50 Years — Category 4 Hurricane Michael Hits Panama City, Florida With Winds of 140 Miles Per Hour — Wall To Wall Water — Videos — Story 2: The Rush To The Exit — The Coming Stock Market Correction or Start of The Bubble Bursting and Crash of 2018 — Videos — Story 3: President Trump “Fed Has Gone Crazy” — Abolish The Fed or Central Bank and Abolish The U.S. Federal Deficits — Videos — Story 4: United States Ambassador to United Nations Nikki Haley Leaving The End of Year — United Nations A Failed Institution — Videos

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If by Rudyard Kipling

IF, Rudyard Kipling’s poem, recitated by Sir Michael Caine

If – Rudyard Kipling, Dennis Hopper on Johnny Cash Show

“If” by Rudyard Kipling (read by Tom O’Bedlam)

Story 1: Worst Storm in 50 Years — Category 4 Hurricane Michael Hits Panama City, Florida With Winds of 140 Miles Per Hour — Wall To Wall Water — Videos —

Special Report w/ Bret Baier 10/10/18 | Breaking Fox News | October 10, 2018

Lou Dobbs 10/10/18 | Breaking Fox News | October 10, 2018

145 MPH Category 4 – Monster Hurricane Michael

Hurricane Michael makes landfall in Florida

LIVE: Hurricane Michael coverage: Storm grows into Category 4

Hurricane Michael leaves neighborhood underwater

Destruction by Hurricane Michael in Florida 10 October 2018

 

Hurricane Michael Makes Landfall in Florida Panhandle

October 10, 2018, 12:06 PM EDT

Above: Radar image of Hurricane Michael at 11 am EDT October 10, 2018, from our wundermap.

Update: Hurricane Michael made landfall at 2 pm EDT October 10, 2018 near Mexico Beach, FL with top sustained winds of 155 mph and a central pressure of 919 mb. This makes Michael the strongest landfalling mainland U.S. hurricane (by pressure) since Camille of 1969, which had a 900 mb pressure, and the strongest by wind speed since Hurricane Andrew of 1992, which had 165 mph winds. Note that Hurricane Maria of 2017 hit Puerto Rico with winds of 155 mph and a central pressure of 920 mb, and was virtually identical in intensity to Michael.

Hurricane-force wind gusts, torrential rains, and a massive storm surge are belting Florida’s Panhandle as extremely dangerous Hurricane Michael closes in on an afternoon landfall. At 1 pm EDT, the hurricane hunters found that Michael was still intensifying, with sustained winds of 150 mph and a central pressure of 919 mb. A storm surge of over eight feet was already affecting the Panhandle, inundating many escape routes. Michael is poised to be one of the most top-ten most intense hurricanes on record to make landfall in the U.S.

If you are in the hurricane’s impact zone, now is the time to hunker down in your safe shelter and not be out driving. Remember that winds are stronger the higher up you go; if you are sheltering in a high-rise building, the lower floors will be safer than the upper floors. According to the National Hurricane Center’s classification of Category 4 wind damage, this is what can be expected where the eastern eyewall of Michael comes ashore:

Catastrophic damage will occur: Well-built framed homes can sustain severe damage with loss of most of the roof structure and/or some exterior walls. Most trees will be snapped or uprooted and power poles downed. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.

Michael
Figure 1. GOES-16 visible satellite image of Hurricane Michael at 10:45 am EDT October 10, 2018. Image credit: NOAA/RAMMB.
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Andy Hazelton@AndyHazelton

Another bumpy flight in . What a monster. One of the most dynamically active storms I have ever seen, with eyewall mesovortices inside a small, steep eye.

At 2:12 pm EDT, the storm tide at Apalachicola, FL peaked at 7.72’ above high tide (Mean Higher High Water, or MHHW), which was the highest water level on record there (going back to 1967). Hurricane Dennis of 2005 (a 6.43’ storm tide) held the previous record. The highest storm surge at the site (height of the water above the normal tide) was 8.53′. NHC predicted a storm surge of 8 – 14 feet for this portion of the coast.

At 2:06 pm EDT, the storm tide at Panama City, FL peaked at 5.31’ above MHHW, which was the second highest water level on record. The record was 5.72’ above MHHW, set on October 4, 1995 during Hurricane Opal. The highest storm surge at the site (height of the water above the normal tide) was 5.62′. Records extend back to 1973 at the site.

At 2:54 pm EDT, the storm tide at Cedar Key, FL peaked at 4.05’ above MHHW, their 6th highest water level on record.

NOAA buoy 42039, located about 90 miles (145 km) south-southwest of Panama City, Florida, reported sustained winds of 60 mph (97 km/h) and a wind gust of 76 mph (122 km/h) at 5:50 am, before the buoy stopped transmitting data. The highest significant wave heights were 30.8 feet at 4:50 am EDT.

Tyndall Air Force Base, which got the western eyewall winds of Michael, reported sustained winds of 86 mph, gusting to 129 mph, at 12:19 EDT, five minutes before the station stopped sending data. This measurement was taken at 30 meters, so is higher than the winds that would be reported from the standard 10-meter measuring height.

According to NHC, a wind gust of 130 mph was reported between 1 – 2 pm EDT at a University of Florida/Weatherflow observing site near Tyndall Air Force Base before the instrument failed. A wind gust of 129 mph (207 km/h) was reported at the Panama City Airport.

Cat 4+ landfalls
Figure 2. Table of landfalling mainland U.S. Category 4 and 5 hurricanes since 1851. Image credit: Dr. Phil Klotzbach. To convert from knots to mph, multiply by 1.15. Rounded to the nearest 5 mph, 115 knots = 130 mph, 120 knots = 140 mph, etc.

Strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane on record so late in the year

Michael made landfall more than a month later than all of the historic storms that were stronger, and is the strongest landfalling U.S. hurricane so late in the year. One good reason for this is the exceptionally warm ocean waters in the eastern Gulf of Mexico which powered Michael; Florida had its warmest September on record last month, and this helped heat up the waters of the eastern Gulf to 2 – 4°F (1 – 2°C) above average. Global warming makes record-warm Septembers like Florida experienced more likely to occur, and thus made a record-strong late-season hurricane like Michael more likely to occur.

 

Landfalling Category 4 hurricanes are rare in the mainland U.S., with just 24 such landfalls since 1851—an average of one every seven years. (Category 5 landfalls are rarer still, with just three on record). Only four Category 4 hurricanes have made landfall in October or later, and just two of these made landfall later than October 10: Hurricane King (October 18, 1950 in Florida), and Hurricane Hazel (October 15, 1954 near the NC/SC border). Both hit with top winds of 130 mph.

In records going back to 1851, only nine hurricanes have struck the Panhandle with Category 3 or stronger winds. The strongest were the 1882 Pensacola hurricane and 1975’s Hurricane Eloise, both of which came ashore with winds of 125 mph. Since 1900, there has been only one Category 4 or 5 landfall anywhere on the northern Gulf Coast (from Beaumont to Cedar Key): Category 5 Hurricane Camille in 1969.

Michael is the strongest landfalling mainland U.S. hurricane (by pressure) since Camille of 1969, which had a 900 mb pressure, and the strongest by wind speed since Hurricane Andrew of 1992, which had 165 mph winds. Note that Hurricane Maria of 2017 hit Puerto Rico with winds of 155 mph and a central pressure of 920 mb, and was virtually identical in intensity to Michael. According to NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division, only two landfalling mainland U.S. hurricanes have hit at a lower pressure–the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane in the Florida Keys (892 mb) and Hurricane Camille in Mississippi (900 mb), both Category 5 storms. Michael surpassed the landfall intensity of Category 5 Hurricane Andrew of 1992 in Florida (922 mb), Category 3 Hurricane Katrina of 2005 in Mississippi (920 mb) and Category 4 Hurricane Maria of 2017 in Puerto Rico (920 mb).

Philip Klotzbach

@philklotzbach

Table of the 6 continental US landfalls on record (since 1851) with lower pressure than ‘s current pressure of 928 hPa. All of these systems were devastating: Indianola (1886), Florida Keys (1919), Labor Day (1935), Camille (1969), Andrew (1992), Katrina (2005)

Integrated Kinetic Energy: a better measure of storm surge potential

The Saffir-Simpson wind scale is an imperfect ranking of a hurricane’s storm surge threat, since it does not take into account the size of the storm and over how large an area the storm’s strong winds are blowing. At 5 am EDT Wednesday, Michael was an average-sized hurricane, with tropical storm-force winds that extended out up to 185 miles from the center, and hurricane-force winds that extended out 45 miles from the center. If we sum up the total energy of this wind field, we come with an Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE) of 42 Terajoules, according to RMS Hwind. At this level of wind energy, Michael will be able to generate a storm surge characteristic of a typical of a Category 3 or 4 storm. Factors such as the shape of the coastline can lead to considerably higher or lower surge at a given spot than suggested by overall IKE values.

For comparison, here are the peak IKE vales of some historic storms at landfall:

Sandy, 2012: 330
Ivan, 2004: 122
Irma, 2017: 118
Ike, 2008: 118
Katrina, 2005: 116
Rita, 2005: 97
Maria, 2017: 78
Frances, 2004: 70
Matthew, 2016: 45
Michael, 2018: 42
Dennis, 2015: 42
Harvey, 2017: 27
Andrew, 1992: 17
Charley, 2004: 10

Michael forecast
Figure 3. Most of the area between the southern Appalachians and the South Carolina coast has a better-than-even chance of experiencing tropical-storm-force winds from Michael. The odds are greater than 90% across the southeast half of Georgia. Image credit: NOAA/NHC.

Michael after landfall: Widespread wind damage a serious threat

Landfall will be only the start of Michael’s expected multi-state rampage. As it accelerates to the northeast, Michael will bring tropical-storm-force winds much further inland than usual for a typical landfalling hurricane. These will be capable of downing trees and power lines in deadly fashion across a vast swath of southern Georgia into South Carolina and even North Carolina. Power outages will affect hundreds of thousands of people, and the huge, simultaneous toll on the power grid tells us that some of those outages will take a week or more to repair.

Tropical storm warnings extend all the way up the coast from northern Florida (Fernandina Beach) to southern North Carolina (Surf City), and a tropical storm watch extends further north to Duck, NC, including Palmico and Albemarle sounds.

Intensity models agree in projecting Michael to remain a tropical storm all the way to the coast of North Carolina and Virginia, as predicted by NHC. It will pop back offshore late Thursday or early Friday near the NC Outer Banks or southeast Virginia. Rains of 4” – 8” (locally higher) along and near Michael’s path all the way to southeast Virginia may trigger flash floods, especially where soil is saturated in the wake of Hurricane Florence and other rains of recent weeks. Rivers have receded well below flood stage, so widespread river flooding is not expected. Michael may lash the NC/VA coasts with a parting shot of high wind on Friday as it re-intensifies offshore, en route to becoming a powerful post-tropical storm over the open Atlantic.

See weather.com’s comprehensive coverage for more detail on Michael’s landfall and post-landfall impacts.

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Stephen M. Strader@StephenMStrader

Quick and dirty maps illustrating the change in housing exposure from 1970-2018 for . Dangerous situation and residents in the , as well as parts of southern AL and GA should take protective action.

Other tropical cyclones spinning around the world

It’s an extraordinarily busy week for mid-October in the Northern Hemisphere tropics.

—Tropical storm watches are up for the central coast of Baja California ahead of Tropical Storm Sergio, which will be approaching from the Pacific on Thursday night. Sergio will accelerate through northwest Mexico as a weakening storm, and it may still be identifiable on Saturday as a tropical depression or remnant low in Texas or Oklahoma. Heavy rains are the main threat, spreading across northwest Mexico (more than 10” could fall over parts of the Baja California peninsula) and into New Mexico and the Southern Plains, where 2” – 4” will be possible atop saturated ground.

—Long-livedHurricane Leslie continues to spin in the remote central North Atlantic. Leslie may get hauled northeastward by the end of the week, but it’s also possible that Leslie will take a very unusual path, getting close to the Canary Islands before making a U-turn westward. If that happens, cooler waters should take an increasing toll on the storm, but Leslie could still end up among the longest-lived Atlantic named storms on record.

Tropical Storm Nadinecontinues to gain strength in the eastern tropical Atlantic. Nadine is expected to weaken and dissipate over the next several days without threatening any land areas.

—In the Bay of Bengal, rapidly intensifying Tropical Cyclone Titliwill make landfall early Thursday on the coast of northeast India, perhaps at Category 3 strength. Torrential rains, perhaps topping 12” locally, will pose a serious threat.

—In the Arabian Sea, Tropical Cyclone Luban—now a Category 1 equivalent—will weaken as it approaches the coast of Yemen or southern Oman, but it may still make landfall as a tropical storm on Friday. Tropical cyclones are not very common on either coast, but the last several years have brought several destructive ones, including Chapala—which became Yemen’s first hurricane-strength landfall in November 2015—and Mekenu, which struck Oman as a Category 3 storm in May 2018, causing 31 deaths.

Bob Henson co-wrote this post.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/Potentially-Catastrophic-Hurricane-Michael-Nearing-Landfall-Florida-Panhandle

affir–Simpson scale

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The Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale (SSHWS), formerly the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale (SSHS), classifies hurricanes – Western Hemisphere tropical cyclones that exceed the intensities of tropical depressions and tropical storms – into five categories distinguished by the intensities of their sustained winds.

Saffir–Simpson scale
Category Wind speeds
(for 1-minute maximum sustained winds)
m/s knots (kn) mph km/h
Five ≥ 70 m/s   ≥ 137 kn   ≥ 157 mph   ≥ 252 km/h  
Four   58–70 m/s     113–136 kn     130–156 mph     209–251 km/h  
Three   50–58 m/s     96–112 kn     111–129 mph     178–208 km/h  
Two   43–49 m/s     83–95 kn     96–110 mph     154–177 km/h  
One   33–42 m/s     64–82 kn     74–95 mph     119–153 km/h  
Related classifications
(for 1-minute maximum sustained winds)
Tropical storm   18–32 m/s     34–63 kn     39–73 mph     63–118 km/h  
Tropical depression   ≤ 17 m/s     ≤ 33 kn     ≤ 38 mph     ≤ 62 km/h  

To be classified as a hurricane, a tropical cyclone must have one-minute maximum sustained winds of at least 74 mph (33 m/s; 64 kn; 119 km/h) (Category 1). The highest classification in the scale, Category 5, consists of storms with sustained winds exceeding 156 mph (70 m/s; 136 kn; 251 km/h). The classifications can provide some indication of the potential damage and flooding a hurricane will cause upon landfall.

Officially, the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale is based on the highest average wind over a one-minute time span and used only to describe hurricanes forming in the Atlantic Ocean and northern Pacific Ocean east of the International Date Line.

Other areas use different scales to label these storms, which are called “cyclones” or “typhoons“, depending on the area. These areas (except the JTWC) use three-minute or ten-minute averaged winds to determine the maximum sustained winds which is an important difference and makes a direct comparison of other storm scales with the Saffir–Simpson scale difficult.

There is some criticism of the SSHWS for not taking rain, storm surge, and other important factors into consideration, but SSHWS defenders say that part of the goal of SSHWS is to be straightforward and simple to understand.

History

The scale was developed in 1971 by civil engineer Herbert Saffir and meteorologist Robert Simpson, who at the time was director of the U.S. National Hurricane Center (NHC).[1] The scale was introduced to the general public in 1973,[2] and saw widespread use after Neil Frank replaced Simpson at the helm of the NHC in 1974.[3]

The initial scale was developed by Herbert Saffir, a structural engineer, who in 1969 went on commission for the United Nations to study low-cost housing in hurricane-prone areas.[4] While performing the study, Saffir realized there was no simple scale for describing the likely effects of a hurricane. Mirroring the utility of the Richter magnitude scale in describing earthquakes, he devised a 1–5 scale based on wind speed that showed expected damage to structures. Saffir gave the scale to the NHC, and Simpson added the effects of storm surge and flooding.

In 2009, the NHC made moves to eliminate pressure and storm surge ranges from the categories, transforming it into a pure wind scale, called the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (Experimental) [SSHWS].[5] The new scale became operational on May 15, 2010.[6]The scale excludes flood ranges, storm surge estimations, rainfall, and location, which means a Category 2 hurricane which hits a major city will likely do far more cumulative damage than a Category 5 hurricane that hits a rural area.[7] The agency cited various hurricanes as reasons for removing the “scientifically inaccurate” information, including Hurricane Katrina (2005) and Hurricane Ike (2008), which both had stronger than estimated storm surges, and Hurricane Charley (2004), which had weaker than estimated storm surge.[8] Since removed from the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale, storm surge predicting and modeling is now handled with the use of computer numerical models such as ADCIRC and SLOSH.

In 2012, the NHC expanded the windspeed range for Category 4 by 1 mph in both directions, to 130–156 mph, with corresponding changes in the other units (113–136 kn, 209–251 km/h), instead of 131–155 mph (114–135 kn, 210–249 km/h). The NHC and the Central Pacific Hurricane Center assign tropical cyclone intensities in 5 knot increments, and then convert to mph and km/h with a similar rounding for other reports. So an intensity of 115 kn is rated Category 4, but the conversion to miles per hour (132.3 mph) would round down to 130 mph, making it appear to be a Category 3 storm. Likewise, an intensity of 135 kn (~155 mph, and thus Category 4) is 250.02 km/h, which according to the definition used before the change would be Category 5. To resolve these issues, the NHC had been obliged to incorrectly report storms with wind speeds of 115 kn as 135 mph, and 135 kn as 245 km/h. The change in definition allows storms of 115 kn to be correctly rounded down to 130 mph, and storms of 135 kn to be correctly reported as 250 km/h, and still qualify as Category 4. Since the NHC had previously rounded incorrectly to keep storms in Category 4 in each unit of measure, the change does not affect the classification of storms from previous years.[5] The new scale became operational on May 15, 2012.[9]

Categories

The scale separates hurricanes into five different categories based on wind. The U.S. National Hurricane Center classifies hurricanes of Category 3 and above as major hurricanes, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center classifies typhoons of 150 mph or greater (strong Category 4 and Category 5) as super typhoons (although all tropical cyclones can be very dangerous). Most weather agencies use the definition for sustained winds recommended by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), which specifies measuring winds at a height of 33 ft (10.1 m) for 10 minutes, and then taking the average. By contrast, the U.S. National Weather ServiceCentral Pacific Hurricane Center and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center define sustained winds as average winds over a period of one minute, measured at the same 33 ft (10.1 m) height,[10][11] and that is the definition used for this scale. Intensity of example hurricanes is from both the time of landfall and the maximum intensity.

The scale is roughly logarithmic in wind speed, and the top wind speed for Category “c” (c = 1 … 4; there is no upper limit for category 5) can be expressed as 83×10(​c15) miles per hour rounded to the nearest multiple of 5 – except that after the change mentioned above, Category 4 is now widened by 1 mph in each direction and that the calculated value for Category 2 (c = 2) is rounded down from 112.8 mph to 110 mph.

The five categories are described in the following subsections, in order of increasing intensity.[12]

Category 1

Category 1
Sustained winds Most recent
33–42 m/s
64–82 kn
119–153 km/h
74–95 mph
Nate 2017-10-07 1848Z.jpgNate in 2017 approaching Louisiana.

Very dangerous winds will produce some damage

Category 1 storms usually cause no significant structural damage to most well-constructed permanent structures; however, they can topple unanchored mobile homes, as well as uproot or snap weak trees. Poorly attached roof shingles or tiles can blow off. Coastal flooding and pier damage are often associated with Category 1 storms. Power outages are typically widespread to extensive, sometimes lasting several days. Even though it is the least intense type of hurricane, they can still produce widespread damage and can be life-threatening storms.[5]

Hurricanes that peaked at Category 1 intensity, and made landfall at that intensity include: Flossy (1956), Gladys (1968), Agnes (1972), Juan (1985), Ismael (1995), Claudette (2003), Gaston (2004), Stan (2005), Humberto (2007), Isaac (2012), Manuel (2013), Earl (2016), Hermine (2016), Newton (2016), Franklin (2017), and Nate (2017).

Category 2

Category 2
Sustained winds Most recent
43–49 m/s
83–95 kn
154–177 km/h
96–110 mph
Arthur 2014-07-03 2130Z.png
Arthur in 2014 approaching North Carolina.

Extremely dangerous winds will cause extensive damage

Storms of Category 2 intensity often damage roofing material (sometimes exposing the roof) and inflict damage upon poorly constructed doors and windows. Poorly constructed signs and piers can receive considerable damage and many trees are uprooted or snapped. Mobile homes, whether anchored or not, are typically damaged and sometimes destroyed, and many manufactured homes also suffer structural damage. Small craft in unprotected anchorages may break their moorings. Extensive to near-total power outages and scattered loss of potable water are likely, possibly lasting many days.[5]

Hurricanes that peaked at Category 2 intensity, and made landfall at that intensity include: Able (1952), Alice (1954), Fifi (1974), Diana (1990), Calvin (1993), Gert (1993), Rosa (1994), Erin (1995), Alma (1996), Juan (2003), Alex (2010), Richard (2010), Tomas (2010), Carlotta (2012), Ernesto (2012), and Arthur (2014).

Category 3

Category 3
Sustained winds Most recent
50–58 m/s
96–112 kn
178–208 km/h
111–129 mph
Otto 2016-11-24 1605Z.jpg
Otto in 2016 at its Nicaraguan landfall.

Devastating damage will occur

Tropical cyclones of Category 3 and higher are described as major hurricanes in the Atlantic or Eastern Pacific basins. These storms can cause some structural damage to small residences and utility buildings, particularly those of wood frame or manufactured materials with minor curtain wall failures. Buildings that lack a solid foundation, such as mobile homes, are usually destroyed, and gable-end roofs are peeled off. Manufactured homes usually sustain severe and irreparable damage. Flooding near the coast destroys smaller structures, while larger structures are struck by floating debris. A large number of trees are uprooted or snapped, isolating many areas. Additionally, terrain may be flooded well inland. Near-total to total power loss is likely for up to several weeks and water will likely also be lost or contaminated.[5]

Hurricanes that peaked at Category 3 intensity, and made landfall at that intensity include: Easy (1950), Carol (1954), Hilda (1955), Celia (1970), Ella (1970), Eloise (1975), Olivia (1975), Alicia (1983), Elena (1985), Roxanne (1995), Fran (1996), Isidore (2002), Jeanne (2004), Lane (2006), Karl (2010), and Otto (2016).

Category 4

Category 4
Sustained winds Most recent
58–70 m/s
113–136 kn
209–251 km/h
130–156 mph
Michael 2018-10-10 1430Z.jpgMichael in 2018 after making landfall on the Florida Panhandle

Catastrophic damage will occur

Category 4 hurricanes tend to produce more extensive curtainwall failures, with some complete structural failure on small residences. Heavy, irreparable damage and near complete destruction of gas station canopies and other wide span overhang type structures are common. Mobile and manufactured homes are often flattened. Most trees, except for the heartiest, are uprooted or snapped, isolating many areas. These storms cause extensive beach erosion, while terrain may be flooded far inland. Total and long-lived electrical and water losses are to be expected, possibly for many weeks.[5]

The 1900 Galveston hurricane, the deadliest natural disaster to hit the United States, peaked at an intensity that corresponds to a modern-day Category 4 storm. Other examples of storms that peaked at Category 4 intensity, and made landfall at that intensity include: Gracie (1959), Flora (1963), Cleo (1964), Betsy (1965), Frederic (1979), Joan (1988), Iniki (1992), Luis (1995), Iris (2001), Charley (2004), Dennis (2005), Gustav(2008), Ike (2008), Joaquin (2015), Harvey (2017), and Michael (2018).

Category 5

Category 5
Sustained winds Most recent
≥ 70 m/s
≥ 137 kn
≥ 252 km/h
≥ 157 mph
Maria 2017-09-19 0000Z.jpgMaria in 2017 making landfall in Dominica.

Catastrophic damage will occur

Category 5 is the highest category of the Saffir–Simpson scale. These storms cause complete roof failure on many residences and industrial buildings, and some complete building failures with small utility buildings blown over or away. Collapse of many wide-span roofs and walls, especially those with no interior supports, is common. Very heavy and irreparable damage to many wood frame structures and total destruction to mobile/manufactured homes is prevalent. Only a few types of structures are capable of surviving intact, and only if located at least 3 to 5 miles (5 to 8 km) inland. They include office, condominium and apartment buildings and hotels that are of solid concrete or steel frame construction, multi-story concrete parking garages, and residences that are made of either reinforced brick or concrete/cement block and have hipped roofs with slopes of no less than 35 degrees from horizontal and no overhangs of any kind, and if the windows are either made of hurricane-resistant safety glass or covered with shutters. Unless all of these requirements are met, the absolute destruction of a structure is certain.[5]

The storm’s flooding causes major damage to the lower floors of all structures near the shoreline, and many coastal structures can be completely flattened or washed away by the storm surge. Virtually all trees are uprooted or snapped and some may be debarked, isolating most affected communities. Massive evacuation of residential areas may be required if the hurricane threatens populated areas. Total and extremely long-lived power outages and water losses are to be expected, possibly for up to several months.[5]

Historical examples of storms that made landfall at Category 5 status include: “Cuba” (1924), “Okeechobee” (1928), “Bahamas” (1932), “Cuba–Brownsville” (1933), “Labor Day” (1935), Janet (1955), Camille (1969), Edith (1971), Anita (1977), David (1979), Gilbert (1988), Andrew (1992), Dean (2007), Felix (2007), Irma (2017),[13] and Maria (2017).[14] No Category 5 hurricane is known to have made landfall at that strength in the eastern Pacific basin.

Criticism

Some scientists, including Kerry Emanuel and Lakshmi Kantha, have criticized the scale as being simplistic, indicating that the scale takes into account neither the physical size of a storm nor the amount of precipitation it produces.[7] Additionally, they and others point out that the Saffir–Simpson scale, unlike the Richter scale used to measure earthquakes, is not continuous, and is quantized into a small number of categories. Proposed replacement classifications include the Hurricane Intensity Index, which is based on the dynamic pressure caused by a storm’s winds, and the Hurricane Hazard Index, which is based on surface wind speeds, the radius of maximum winds of the storm, and its translational velocity.[15][16] Both of these scales are continuous, akin to the Richter scale;[17] however, neither of these scales have been used by officials.

“Category 6”

After the series of powerful storm systems of the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, as well as after Hurricane Patricia, a few newspaper columnists and scientists brought up the suggestion of introducing Category 6, and they have suggested pegging Category 6 to storms with winds greater than 174 or 180 mph (78 or 80 m/s; 151 or 156 kn; 280 or 290 km/h).[7][18] Fresh calls were made for consideration of the issue after Hurricane Irma in 2017,[19] which was the subject of a number of seemingly credible false news reports as a “Category 6” storm,[20] partly in consequence of so many local politicians using the term. Only a few storms of this intensity have been recorded. Of the 33 hurricanes currently considered to have attained Category 5 status in the Atlantic, 18 had wind speeds at 175 mph (78 m/s; 152 kn; 282 km/h) or greater and only seven had wind speeds at 180 mph (80 m/s; 160 kn; 290 km/h) or greater (the 1935 Labor Day hurricaneAllenGilbertMitchRitaWilma, and Irma). Of the 16 hurricanes currently considered to have attained Category 5 status in the eastern Pacific, only five had wind speeds at 175 mph (78 m/s; 152 kn; 282 km/h) or greater (PatsyJohnLindaRick, and Patricia), and only three had wind speeds at 180 mph (80 m/s; 160 kn; 290 km/h) or greater (Linda, Rick, and Patricia). However, most storms which would be eligible for this category were typhoons in the western Pacific, most notably Typhoon Tip in 1979, with sustained winds of 190 mph (310 km/h),[21] and typhoons Haiyan and Meranti in 2013 and 2016, respectively, each with sustained winds of 195 mph (314 km/h).

According to Robert Simpson, there are no reasons for a Category 6 on the Saffir–Simpson Scale because it is designed to measure the potential damage of a hurricane to human-made structures. Simpson stated that “… when you get up into winds in excess of 155 mph (249 km/h) you have enough damage if that extreme wind sustains itself for as much as six seconds on a building it’s going to cause rupturing damages that are serious no matter how well it’s engineered.”[3] Nonetheless, the counties of Broward and Miami-Dade in Florida have building codes which require critical infrastructure buildings to be able to withstand Category 5 winds.[22]

See also

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saffir%E2%80%93Simpson_scale

Story 2: The Rush To The Exit — The Coming Stock Market Correction or Start of The Bubble Bursting and Crash of 2018 — Videos —

See the source image

See the source image

Three explanations to the recent market selloff

Does the market selloff mean the end for bull market?

This market sell-off is likely just a short pull-back, strategist says

Ep. 398: The Bear Market Has Begun, Recession to Follow

2018 STOCK MARKET CRASH? OVERVALUED OR UNDERVALUED?

Cramer: The market decline will accelerate if Powell doesn’t walk things back

Biggest market crash of our lifetime is coming: Economist Harry Dent

Harry Dent on the Real Estate Bubble

Gerald Celente – Economic Meltdown Worse than Great Depression Coming

 How to Prepare for the Approaching Stock Market CRASH

 

Dow plunges more than 800 points in worst drop since February, Amazon and tech shares lead the rout

  • The tech sector had its worst day in seven years, leading the Dow to its worst day in eight months.
  • “People are getting out of the high-flying tech names right now,” says Larry Benedict, CEO of The Opportunistic Trader. “I think people are under-hedged; there could be more pain ahead.”

Stocks sank on Wednesday as a steep decline in tech shares and worries of rapidly rising rates sent Wall Street on pace for its worst day in eight months.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed 831.83 points lower at 25,598.74 as Intel and Microsoft fell more than 3.5 percent each. The Nasdaq Composite plummeted 4 percent to 7,422.05.

The Dow also closed near its lows of the day.

The S&P 500 dropped 3.3 percent to 2,785.68, with the tech sector underperforming. The broad index also posted a five-day losing streak — its longest since November 2016 — and fell below its 50-day and 100-day moving averages, widely followed technical levels.

Both the Dow and S&P 500 posted their biggest one-day drops since early February, while the Nasdaq notched its largest single day sell-off since June 24, 2016.

Stocks have fallen sharply this month. For October, the S&P 500 and the Dow are down more than 4.4 percent and 3.3 percent, respectively. The Nasdaq, meanwhile, has lost more than 7.5 percent.

Rising rate fears and a pivot out of technology stocks have made it a rough last few days. The Dow has dropped four of the last five sessions.

Shares of Amazon declined 6.2 percent on Wednesday, while Netflix slid 8.4 percent. Facebook and Apple also fell more than 4 percent each. These stocks are top performers for the year and for most of the bull market. For the overall tech sector in the S&P 500, it was the worst day in seven years, dropping 4.8 percent.

“People are getting out of the high-flying tech names right now,” said Larry Benedict, CEO of The Opportunistic Trader. “I think people are under-hedged; there could be more pain ahead.”

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell appears on a television on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange.

Five market experts break down how to invest as interest rates spike  

Worries about a sharp rise in interest rates also pressured equities. The 10-year Treasury note yield traded around 3.23 percent a day after hitting its highest level since 2011. The two-year yield, meanwhile, reached its highest mark since 2008. The speedy rise in yields has sent worries through Wall Street that higher borrowing costs will slow down the economy.

“Portfolio managers tend to move to the sidelines in a skittish tape out of fear of suffering from a quick and sharp pullback,” said Jeremy Klein, chief market strategist at FBN Securities.

“The fundamental environment, though, remains supportive of share appreciation. I contend that the concerns of rising interest rates are largely overblown. Specifically, I do not anticipate much more of an increase in longer dated Treasury yields,” he said.

Rates rose on Wednesday after the U.S. government released data showing a rebound in producer prices last month. The producer price index rose 0.2 percent in September and is up 2.8 percent on a year-over-year basis. The index is a widely followed metric of inflation.

Three experts debate whether the recent tech stock turmoil could continue

Three experts debate whether the recent tech stock turmoil could continue  

The recent rise in rates comes ahead of the start of the latest earnings season. Banks such as Citigroup and Wells Fargo are scheduled to report later this week. Overall, analysts polled by FactSet expect third-quarter earnings to have risen by 19 percent on a year-over-year basis.

But “there are just too many concerns about the rise in input costs,” said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at B. Riley FBR. “Ongoing concerns about the stronger dollar and trade are being input into corporate guidance, and that is not good.”

“This goes back to the assumption that the market made wrongly … that once we got NAFTA 2.0 done, we’d pivot to China,” he said. But “the rhetoric on China has only gotten worse, not better.”

Stocks also fell as their European counterparts dropped on worries over Italy’s budget. The Stoxx 600 index fell 1.6 percent, while the German Dax dropped 2.2 percent. France’s CAC 40, meanwhile, pulled back 2.1 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/us-markets-bond-yields-and-data-in-focus.html

70% Stock Market Crash to Strike November 1, Economist Warns

Several noted economists and distinguished investors are warning of a stock market crash.

For example, former budget director for the Reagan White House, David Stockman recently raised a red flag when he declared an economic collapse is imminent. He went on to say: “There surely is a doozy just around the bend.”

Scott Minerd, Chairman of Investments and Global Chief Investment Officer of Guggenheim Partners, warns: “The markets are potentially on a collision course for disaster … once we reach a peak we’ll probably see a 40% retracement in equities.”

Paul Tudor Jones, the famed hedge fund manager and founder of The Tudor Group, is credited for calling the October 1987 market crash, now says that while “we have the strongest economy in 40 years … it is unsustainable.”

And John Hussman, President of Hussman Investment Trust, says that when the market crashes we can expect “a market loss on the order of 60%.”

But there is one distinct warning that should send chills down your spine … that of famed economist Ted Bauman. Bauman and his team correctly predicted the collapse of 1999 and 2007.

Bauman now warns: “There are three key economic indicators screaming SELL. They don’t imply that a 70% collapse is looming, it’s already at our doorstep.”

And if Bauman calls for a 70% market correction, one should pay heed.

Indeed, over the last three decades he accurately predicted the financial crisis of 2008, the dot.com crash of 2000, the recession of the early 1990s and the 1987 crash.

And when Bauman makes a prediction, he backs it up. True to form, in a new controversial video, Bauman uses over a dozen indisputable charts to prove his point that a 70% stock market crash is here.

Most alarming of all, is what Bauman says will cause the collapse. It has nothing to do with interest rates, government debt, tariffs, China or North Korea. Instead, it is linked back to a little-known scheme that was deemed illegal for triggering the 1929 market crash … a scheme that was made legal again.

And although our future may seem bleak, as Bauman says: “There is no need to fall victim to the future. If you are on the right side of what’s ahead, you could seize opportunities that come along once, maybe twice, in a lifetime.”

Perhaps most importantly, in this new video presentation, Bauman reveals what he and his family are doing to prepare right now. (It’s unconventional and even controversial, but proven to work.)

While Bauman intended the video for a private audience only, original viewers leaked it out and now tens of thousands are downloading the video every day.

One anonymous viewer wrote: “Bauman uses clear evidence that spells out the looming collapse, and he does it in a simple language that anyone can understand.” [Indeed, Bauman uses a lamb analogy to prove his points.]

With his permission, I reposted the video on a private website. Click here to watch it now.

600x380ted play button

https://banyanhill.com/exclusives/70-stock-market-crash-to-strike-august-1-economist-warns/

 

 

Story 3: President Trump “Fed Has Gone Crazy” — Abolish The Fed or Central Bank — Problem Solved — Videos

See the source image

 

The Fed has ‘gone crazy’: Trump

Milton Friedman – Abolish The Fed

Milton Friedman – The Lesson of the Federal Reserve

How Abolishing the Fed Would Change Everything | Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.

Published on Nov 19, 2008

Recorded at the Mises Institute Supporters Summit, 1 November 2008; Auburn, Alabama. Includes a brief introduction by Mark Thornton. Lew Rockwell is the founder and president of the Ludwig von Mises Institute.

Must the Federal Reserve crimp the recovery to normalize interest rates? | LIVE STREAM

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Ray Dalio: The Next CRASH Causes & What Should You Do. Ray Dalio on The Economy

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Thomas Sowell: Federal Reserve a ‘Cancer

Peter Schiff –Coming Financial Crisis Much Bigger than 2008

Real Wages have Fallen Further than Official Statistics

 

 

Trump says the Federal Reserve has ‘gone crazy’ by continuing to raise interest rates

  • “I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy,” the president said after walking off Air Force One in Erie, Pennsylvania.
  • The U.S. central bank has raised interest rates three times this year and is largely expected to hike once more before year-end.
  • Fears about rapidly rising rates helped cause the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop more than 800 points Wednesday.
  • “Actually, it’s a correction that we’ve been waiting for for a long time, but I really disagree with what the Fed is doing,” the President added.

President Donald Trump knocked the Federal Reserve for continuing to raise interest rates despite some recent market turbulence.

“I think the Fed is making a mistake. They are so tight. I think the Fed has gone crazy,” the president said after walking off Air Force One in Erie, Pennsylvania for a rally.

Fears about rapidly rising rates helped cause the Dow Jones Industrial Average to drop more than 800 points Wednesday. The S&P 500 posted its worst day since February and clinched its first five-day losing streak since 2016.

“Actually, it’s a correction that we’ve been waiting for for a long time, but I really disagree with what the Fed is doing,” the President added.

The Fed has raised interest rates three times this year and is largely expected to hike once more before year-end.

The most recent September rate hike drew criticism from Trump at the time, who said he was “worried about the fact that they seem to like raising interest rates, we can do other things with the money,” he said.

Javers hit on stock market FED HAS GONE CRAZY

The White House comments on today’s 800-point market selloff  

Market expectations for a December rate hike were at 76.3 percent, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch tool.

White House press secretary Sarah Sanders downplayed Wednesday’s steep sell-off on Wall Street, noting the U.S. economy remains in good shape.

“The fundamentals and future of the U.S. economy remain incredibly strong,” Sanders said in a statement. President Trump’s economic policies are the reasons for these historic successes and they have created a solid base for continued growth.”

Trump’s comments on the central bank Wednesday came a day after he said he did not like what they were doing in terms of monetary policy. On Tuesday, Trump noted: “We don’t have to go as fast.” He also said he did not want the economy to slow “even a little bit” when there are no signs of inflation.

Criticism of the Fed is rare from a sitting president, with Trump’s predecessors largely refraining from comment on the direction of the central bank’s monetary policy.

President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House on October 10, 2018 in Washington, DC.

Win McNamee | Getty Images
President Donald Trump in the Oval Office of the White House on October 10, 2018 in Washington, DC.

Interest rates have been on the rise over the past several weeks, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note — a barometer for corporate debt and mortgages rates — climbing to its highest level in more than seven years.

Following the central bank’s move to hike rates a third time this year, Fed Chair Powell said in an interview with PBS that U.S. monetary policy is “far from neutral,” suggesting front-end rates have further room to rise.

“Interest rates are still accommodative, but we’re gradually moving to a place where they will be neutral,” Powell said added. “We may go past neutral, but we’re a long way from neutral at this point, probably.”

Powell said at the Fed’s latest press conference that he had not discussed interest rates with the president.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/10/10/trump-says-the-federal-reserve-has-gone-crazy.html

Definition of neutral rate of interest

The neutral (or natural) rate of interest is the rate at which real GDP is growing at its trend rate, and inflation is stable. It is attributed to Swedish economist Knut Wicksell, and forms an important part of the Austrian theory of the business cycle.

The neutral rate provides an important benchmark for policymakers to compare with the market rate. When interest rates are neutral the economy is on a sustainable path, and it is deviations from neutrality that cause booms and busts. For example if the market rate is pushed artificially below the neutral rate (for example through monetary expansion) then people receive a false signal to invest in more interest-sensitive projects. It is by separating interest rates from their market clearing level that central banks have the potential to create monetary instability.

Because the neutral rate is a hypothetical construct we cannot observe it. Economists tend to believe that it is around 5 per cent, although Morgan Stanley estimates that it is currently under 3 per cent. [1]

http://lexicon.ft.com/Term?term=neutral-rate-of-interest

Story 4: United States Ambassador to United Nations Nikki Haley Leaving The End of Year — United Nations A Failed Institution — Videos

Trump says Haley leaving at ‘end of the year’

How Effective Is The United Nations?

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Mind blowing speech by Robert Welch in 1958 predicting Insiders plans to destroy America

 

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