The Pronk Pops Show 687, May 26, 2016, Story 1: Is The Lying Lunatic Left Above the Law? Obama and Clinton — The American People Will Vote Democratic Party Out of Office In November — Trump Winning Momentum — Trump Rattles Obama — No Obama Third Term — Videos

Posted on May 26, 2016. Filed under: 2016 Presidential Campaign, 2016 Presidential Candidates, Airlines, American History, Autos, Blogroll, Breaking News, Bribery, Budgetary Policy, Business, Climate Change, Coal, Coal, Communications, Computers, Congress, Constitutional Law, Corruption, Countries, Crime, Culture, Defense Spending, Donald J. Trump, Donald J. Trump, Donald Trump, Donald Trump, Economics, Education, Elections, Empires, Employment, Energy, Environment, Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI), Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, Foreign Policy, Free Trade, Government, Government Spending, Health, Health Care, High Crimes, Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton, History, House of Representatives, Illegal Immigration, Illegal Immigration, Immigration, Impeachment, Independence, Investments, Iran Nuclear Weapons Deal, Islamic Republic of Iran, Labor Economics, Law, Legal Immigration, Media, Mexico, Middle East, Monetary Policy, National Security Agency, Natural Gas, Natural Gas, News, Nixon, Nuclear, Nuclear Weapons, Obama, Oil, Philosophy, Photos, Politics, Polls, President Barack Obama, Private Sector Unions, Progressives, Public Sector Unions, Radio, Railroads, Raymond Thomas Pronk, Regulation, Resources, Scandals, Second Amendment, Security, Senate, Social Networking, Social Security, Solar, Tax Policy, Taxation, Taxes, Trade Policy, Transportation, U.S. Negotiations with Islamic Republic of Iran, Unemployment, Unions, United States Constitution, United States of America, Videos, Violence, Wall Street Journal, War, Wealth, Weapons, Weapons of Mass Destruction, Welfare Spending, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

Project_1

The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts

Pronk Pops Show 687: May 26, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 686: May 25, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 685: May 24, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 684: May 23, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 683: May 20, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 682: May 19, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 681: May 17, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 680: May 16, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 679: May 13, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 678: May 12, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 677: May 11, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 676: May 10, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 675: May 9, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 674: May 6, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 673: May 5, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 672: May 4, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 671: May 3, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 670: May 2, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 669: April 29, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 668: April 28, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 667: April 27, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 666: April 26, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 665: April 25, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 664: April 24, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 663: April 21, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 662: April 20, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 661: April 19, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 660: April 18, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 659: April 15, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 658: April 14, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 657: April 13, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 656: April 12, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 655: April 11, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 654: April 8, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 653: April 7, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 652: April 6, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 651: April 4, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 650: April 1, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 649: March 31, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 648: March 30, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 647: March 29, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 646: March 28, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 645: March 24, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 644: March 23, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 643: March 22, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 642: March 21, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 641: March 11, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 640: March 10, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 639: March 9, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 638: March 8, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 637: March 7, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 636: March 4, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 635: March 3, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 634: March 2, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 633: March 1, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 632: February 29, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 631: February 25, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 630: February 24, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 629: February 22, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 628: February 19, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 627: February 18, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 626: February 17, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 625: February 16, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 624: February 15, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 623: February 12, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 622: February 11, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 621: February 10, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 620: February 9, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 619: February 8, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 618: February 5, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 617: February 4, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 616: February 3, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 615: February 1, 2016

Story 1: Is The Lying Lunatic Left Above the Law? Obama and Clinton — The American People Will Vote Democratic Party Out of Office In November — Trump Winning Momentum — Trump Rattles Obama — No Obama Third Term — Videos

President Obama slams Trump at G7 summit

Obama: World Leaders ‘Rattled’ By Trump

Trump on Obama: Unusual That Every Time He Holds Press Conference He Talks About Me

Donald Trump answers questions ahead of policy speech on energy

Pres Obama At G7 Summit: World Leaders “Rattled” By Trump – Outnumbered

Donald Trump Energy Policy Speech! 5/26/16

The Beatles – I’m a Loser

The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts Portfolio

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 685-687

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Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 94-97

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The Pronk Pops Show 489, June 19, 2015, Story 1: Portrait of A Mass Murderer– Dylann Storm Roof — Racist, Drug User, Mentally Disturbed, Evil or Murderer? — It’s The Drugs — Feed Your Head — The House of the Rising Sun — Videos

Posted on June 20, 2015. Filed under: Addiction, American History, Blogroll, Breaking News, College, Communications, Consitutional Law, Corruption, Crime, Diseases, Drugs, Education, Employment, History, Homicide, Illegal Drugs, Law, Legal Drugs, Media, News, Obama, Philosophy, Photos, Pistols, Politics, Polls, President Barack Obama, Radio, Raymond Thomas Pronk, Rifles, Scandals, Violence, Wealth, Weapons, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

Project_1

The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts

Pronk Pops Show 489 June 19, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 488 June 18, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 487 June 17, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 486 June 16, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 485 June 15, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 484 June 12, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 483 June 11, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 482 June 10, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 481 June 9, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 480 June 8, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 479 June 5, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 478 June 4, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 477 June 3, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 476 June 2, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 475 June 1, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 474 May 29, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 473 May 28, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 472 May 27, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 471 May 26, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 470 May 22, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 469 May 21, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 468 May 20, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 467 May 19, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 466 May 18, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 465 May 15, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 464 May 14, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 463 May 13, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 462 May 8, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 461 May 7, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 460 May 6, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 459 May 4, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 458 May 1, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 457 April 30, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 456: April 29, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 455: April 28, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 454: April 27, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 453: April 24, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 452: April 23, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 451: April 22, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 450: April 21, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 449: April 20, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 448: April 17, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 447: April 16, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 446: April 15, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 445: April 14, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 444: April 13, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 443: April 9, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 442: April 8, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 441: April 6, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 440: April 2, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 439: April 1, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 438: March 31, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 437: March 30, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 436: March 27, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 435: March 26, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 434: March 25, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 433: March 24, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 432: March 23, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 431: March 20, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 430: March 19, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 429: March 18, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 428: March 17, 2015 

Pronk Pops Show 427: March 16, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 426: March 6, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 425: March 4, 2015

Pronk Pops Show 424: March 2, 2015

Story 1: Portrait of A Mass Murderer– Dylann Storm Roof — Racist, Drug User, Mentally Disturbed, Evil or Murderer? — It’s The Drugs — Feed Your Head — The House of the Rising Sun — Videos

crime statistics

gun free zonePsych-Meds-and-School-Shootings3blackboxwarningantidepressants-tca-ssripill picturesssri-drug-table1ssris-and-triptans1types of drugsnursingbuddy.com-nursing-pharmacology-Sites-of-Action-for-Selected-Antidepressantsantidepressant-side-effectpsychiatry-junk-science-anxiety-depression-myth-serotonin-level-nerve-endings-receptor-sites-presynaptic-postsynaptic-neuron-neurotransmitter-ssri-selective-serotonin-reuptake-inhibitor-sarafem-paxil-zoloft-celexssri-drug-table1antidepressant_medications_sig

SSRI Stories

Our Stories

SSRI Stories is a collection of over 6,000 stories that have appeared in the media (newspapers, TV, scientific journals) in which prescription drugs were mentioned and in which the drugs may be linked to a variety of adverse outcomes including violence.

This updated site includes the stories from the previous site and new ones from 2011 to date.  We have used a new “category” classification system on the new stories.  We are working back through previously SSRI Stories to bring them into the new classification system.  In the meantime use the search box in the upper right column to search through both the old and the new stories.

SSRI Stories focuses primarily on problems caused by selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRIs), of which Prozac (fluoxetine) was the first.  For more see About SSRIs.   Other medications prescribed as antidepressants that fit the “nightmares” theme of the collected stories are sometimes included.

Jefferson Airplane -White Rabbit

Go Ask Alice (White Rabbit) Lyrics

“Go Ask Alice” was written by Grace Slick.

One pill makes you larger
And one pill makes you small
And the ones that mother gives you
Don’t do anything at all

Go ask Alice
When she’s ten feet tall
And if you go chasing rabbits
And you know you’re going to fall

Tell them a hookah-smoking caterpillar
Has given you the call
Call Alice when she was just small
When the men on the chess board
Get up and tell you where to go

And you just had some kind of mushroom
And your mind is moving slow
Go ask Alice
I think she’ll know

When logic and proportion
Have fallen sloppy dead
And the white knight is talking backwards
And the Red Queen’s lost her head
Remember what the dormouse said

Feed your head
Feed your head

http://www.metrolyrics.com/go-ask-alice-lyrics-jefferson-airplane.html

Jefferson Airplane – White Rabbit (Grace Slick, Woodstock, aug 17 1969)

Jefferson Airplane – Somebody to love

Dylann Roof makes first South Carolina court appearance

Bond Hearing For Charleston Church Shooter Dylann Roof (Full Unedited): First Court Appearance

New video shows church group moments before shooting

Who is Dylann Roof?

Dylann Roof: Charleston Church Shooting | True News

Obama in 2004 on His Personal Drinking/Drug Use

‘I Got High’: Obama Talks About His Use of Drugs

Obama Says Legalizing Drugs is Worthy of Debate

The REAL Reason for the Mass Shooting Epidemic in America

The Marketing of Madness: The Truth About

Psychotropic Drugs

Is Depression a Mental Illness? No.

Psychotropic Drugs: The Hidden Dangers

SSRI Drugs are Dangerous!

SSRI Withdrawals – Do Natural Products Help?

Silent Side Effects of SSRI – Mass Murders and Suicide

Medicated to Death: SSRIs and Mass Killings

SSRI’s Behind Mass Shootings – Psych Speaks Out!

Friend: Dyllan Storm Roof Took Gun from His Mom – She Didn’t Trust Him With It (VIDEO)

Witnesses: Shooter said he was there ‘to shoot black…

Charleston Church Shootings: Special Report

Best 7 minutes on gun control I have ever seen!

In this segment of his Virtual State of the Union, the Virtual President talks about why politicians want to talk about gun control rather than crime control, and delivers the factual evidence and historical truths that make the case for the Second Amendment self-evident.

Dr Susan Gratia-Hupp – Survivor of the 1991 Kileen TX Lubys Shooting Massacre

Hupp and her parents were having lunch at the Luby’s Cafeteria in Killeen in 1991 when the Luby’s massacre commenced. The gunman shot 50 people and killed 23, including Hupp’s parents. Hupp later expressed regret about deciding to remove her gun from her purse and lock it in her car lest she risk possibly running afoul of the state’s concealed weapons laws; during the shootings, she reached for her weapon but then remembered that it was “a hundred feet away in my car.” Her father, Al Gratia, tried to rush the gunman and was shot in the chest. As the gunman reloaded, Hupp escaped through a broken window and believed that her mother, Ursula Gratia, was behind her. Actually however, her mother went to her mortally-wounded husband’s aid and was then shot in the head.

As a survivor of the Luby’s massacre, Hupp testified across the country in support of concealed-handgun laws. She said that if there had been a second chance to prevent the slaughter, she would have violated the Texas law and carried the handgun inside her purse into the restaurant. She testified across the country in support of concealed handgun laws, and was elected to the Texas House of Representatives in 1996. The law was signed by then-Governor George W. Bush.

The Animals – The House of the Rising Sun

“House Of The Rising Sun”

There is a house in New Orleans
They call the Rising Sun
And it’s been the ruin of many a poor boy
And God, I know I’m oneMy mother was a tailor
She sewed my new blue jeans
My father was a gamblin’ man
Down in New OrleansNow the only thing a gambler needs
Is a suitcase and trunk
And the only time he’s satisfied
Is when he’s on a drunk[Organ Solo]Oh mother, tell your children
Not to do what I have done
Spend your lives in sin and misery
In the House of the Rising SunWell, I got one foot on the platform
The other foot on the train
I’m goin’ back to New Orleans
To wear that ball and chainWell, there is a house in New Orleans
They call the Rising Sun
And it’s been the ruin of many a poor boy
And God, I know I’m one

The Moody Blues – Nights In White Satin

Charleston shooting: Dylann Roof’s stepmother defends ‘smart’ boy ‘drawn in by internet evil’

CHARLESTON SHOOTING – Disaster Being Used to Forward Gun Control Agenda

Charleston Shooting: “Hate Crimes” and White Fear

Fox News Host ‘Surprise’ as Obama ‘Quick’ Invoke Gun Control on Charleston Mass Shooting

Fox’s Steve Doocy and Guest Wonder Whether Charleston Shooting Part of ‘War on Christians’

O’Reilly Battles NC Victim’s Friend For Blaming Fox ‘Hate Speech’ for Charleston Shooting on CNN

Mass Murders caused by Pharma Meds… Not Guns!

Medicated to Death: SSRIs and Mass Killings

Chris Greene “SSRI Drugs are responsible for School Massacre”

Michael Savage, caller on how massacres occur at “gun-free” zones, not in armed places like Israel

Ft. Hood Shooting Reactions And The Horrors Of SSRIs

Affidavits spell out chilling case against Dylann Roof

As a subdued Dylann Roof made his first official appearance Friday on charges of killing nine people at a historic black church, police affidavits offered grim details of the murder case, including an allegation that the gunman fired multiple shots into each victim and stood over them to issue “a racially inflammatory statement.”

The documents also said that Roof’s father and uncle contacted police to positively identify the 21-year-old as the suspect after authorities issued photos of the gunman within hours of the attack at the Emanuel AME Church in downtown Charleston Wednesday evening.

As those details trickled out, the suspect’s family issued a statement expressing sadness and offering condolences to the families of the victims:

Dylann Roof’s father, according to the court documents, told investigators that his son owned a .45-caliber handgun. The documents note that .45-caliber casings were found at the scene of the shootings.

The affidavits allege that Roof, wearing a fanny pack apparently to hide a weapon, spent an hour with the parishioners before opening fire on the group. Before leaving the scene of the carnage, he allegedly “uttered a racially inflammatory statement” over the bodies to a witness who was apparently allowed to survive to convey the message.

Roof was returned to South Carolina after waiving his extradition rights following his arrest Thursday near Shelby, N.C., about 245 miles northwest of Charleston.

He appeared at ease when he allegedly told investigators shortly after his capture that he had launched the attack that left nine dead, a federal law enforcement official said. The official, who is not authorized to comment publicly, said that the suspect expressed no remorse and appeared “comfortable” with what he had done.

Authorities have determined that Roof legally obtained a .45-caliber handgun earlier this year, using money likely provided as birthday gift from his family, the official said. The weapon was purchased at gun store near Columbia, S.C.

Statements made by some family members of victims were particularly powerful.

Appearing by video link from jail, the 21-year-old Roof, who was handcuffed and wore a striped jail jumpsuit, often pursed his lips, closed his eyes, or stared at the floor as the relatives of five victims spoke to the court at the bond hearing.

“You took something really precious away from me, I will never talk to her again, never hold her again, but I forgive you,” said the daughter of one of the victims, Ethel Lance. “You hurt me, you hurt a lot of people but God forgive you and I forgive you.”

Roof appeared wan and subdued, his distinctive bowl hair, shown in surveillance photos outside the church on the night of the killings, stringy and unkempt. He stood with his hands cuffed behind his back. Two heavily armed guards stood behind him.

Bethanee Middleton-Brown, sister of another victim, DePayne Middleton-Doctor, addressed the hearing amid sniffles and sobs in the tiny courtroom.

She said her sister “taught me me that we are the family that love built, we have no room for hate, so we have to forgive. And I pray to God for your soul and I also thank God that And I also thank God I won’t be around when your judgment day comes with him.”

Although the court legally could not issue any bond in on the murder charges, Magistrate James Gosnell Jr. set Roof’s bond on a related weapons possession charge at $1 million.

Roof, who often swallowed hard as the judge asked questions, spoke only three times, answering “yes, sir” and “no, sir” to questions about his employment status. Roof is unemployed.

At the opening of the emotional, 13-minute hearing, Gosnell addressed the court, saying Charleston is a strong, loving community with “big hearts.”

“We are going to reach out to everyone, all the victims, and we will touch them,” he said. “We have victims — nine of them — but we also have victims on the other side.

“There are victims on this young man’s side of the family. No one would have ever thrown them into the whirlwind of events that they have been thrown into … We must find it in their heart to also help his family as well.”

In Washington, meanwhile, Justice Department spokeswoman Emily Pierce said the federal inquiry into the church shooting is ongoing.

Pierce said the investigation will not only consider possible hate crime violations, but prosecutors also will review the shooting as a possible “act of domestic terrorism.”

“This heartbreaking episode was undoubtedly designed to strike fear and terror into this community, and the department is looking at this crime from all angles,” Pierce said.

Charleston, South Carolina Mayor Joseph Riley said although he doesn’t condone the death penalty, he thinks prosecutors will seek it in the Emanuel AME church shooting. VPC

Gov. Nikki Haley, speaking on NBC’s Today show on Friday, said that “we will absolutely will want him to have the death penalty” for the fatal shooting of nine members of a Bible study group at the Emanuel AME Church on Wednesday evening.

Charleston Mayor Joseph P. Riley Jr., said at a news conference Friday that though he’s not a proponent of the death penalty, it’s the law in South Carolina and he expects it will be sought in the church shooting. “If you are going to have a death penalty, certainly this case would merit it,” Riley said.

Shelby police officials did not interview Roof formally, according to WBTV, a Charlotte TV station, which quotes an unidentified source as saying the suspect was videotaped during the entire time he was at the Shelby police department.

The source told WBTV that Roof spoke freely, told investigators he had been planning the attack for a period of time, had researched the Emanuel AME Church and targeted it because it was a historic African-American church.

According to WBTV’s source, Roof told investigators he had a Glock handgun hidden behind a pouch he was wearing around his waist. He also told investigators he thought he’d only shot a few people and when told he actually had killed nine people, he appeared to be somewhat remorseful, according to the source.

During the recorded conversation, Roof reportedly told investigators he actually thought he would be caught in Charleston before fleeing and was headed to Nashville when he was captured. When asked why he was going to Nashville, he reportedly told investigators “I’ve never been there before.”

Police alleged that Roof opened fire on worshipers after sitting with them for at least an hour. The victims included the pastor, Clementa Pinckney, 41, who was also a state senator.

The 21-year-old man accused of killing nine people as they worshiped at a Charleston, South Carolina church has a criminal past. Dylann Roof was arrested twice this year and images of him posted to social media seem to show a racist ideology. WCNC

Roof allegedly told police he “almost didn’t go through with (the shooting) because everyone was so nice to him,” other sources told NBC News’ Craig Melvin.

Police say they thought Roof was the lone gunman within hours of the bloody attack on the church, which was founded in 1816. Asked whether authorities believe Roof had acted alone, Mullen said: “We don’t have any reason to believe anyone else was involved.”

A one-time acquaintance of Roof’s told the Associated Press that he would rant that “blacks were taking over the world” as the pair got drunk on vodka.

Roof railed that “someone needed to do something about it for the white race,” said the former friend, Joseph Meek Jr., according to the AP.

http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nation/2015/06/19/dylann-roof-charleston-police-charged–murder-black-church/28975573/

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The Pronk Pops Show 332, September 18, 2014, Story 1: Asset Price Bubble Bursts Coming In October With 69 Months of Near Zero Federal Funds Interest Rates! — Interest Rate Suppression or Price Control and Manipulation Will Blow Up Economy — Suppressing Savings and Investment With Low Interest Rates Is A Formula For Diaster and Depression — Panic Time — Start A War Over Oil — Meltdown America –Videos

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Story 1: Asset Price Bubble Bursts Coming In October With 69 Months of Near Zero Federal Funds Interest Rates! — Interest Rate Suppression or Price Control and Manipulation Will Blow Up Economy — Suppressing Savings and Investment With Low Interest Rates Is A Formula For Diaster and Depression — Panic Time — Start A War Over Oil — Meltdown America –Videos

U.S. Debt Clock

Current Debt Held by the Public Intragovernmental Holdings Total Public Debt Outstanding
09/17/2014 12,767,522,798,389.80 4,997,219,915,398.95 17,764,742,713,788.75

 

TABLE I -- SUMMARY OF TREASURY SECURITIES OUTSTANDING, AUGUST 31, 2014
(Millions of dollars)
                                              Amount Outstanding
Title                                         Debt Held             Intragovernmental         Totals
                                              By the Public         Holdings
Marketable:
  Bills.......................................        1,450,293                     1,704                1,451,998
  Notes.......................................        8,109,269                     7,365                8,116,634
  Bonds.......................................        1,521,088                        57                1,521,144
  Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities.....        1,031,836                        52                1,031,888
  Floating Rate Notes  21  ...................          109,996                         0                  109,996
  Federal Financing Bank  1  .................                0                    13,612                   13,612
Total Marketable  a...........................       12,222,481                    22,790 2             12,245,271
Nonmarketable:
  Domestic Series.............................           29,995                         0                   29,995
  Foreign Series..............................            2,986                         0                    2,986
  State and Local Government Series...........          105,440                         0                  105,440
  United States Savings Securities............          177,030                         0                  177,030
  Government Account Series...................          193,237                 4,993,277                5,186,514
  Hope Bonds 19...............................                0                       494                      494
  Other.......................................            1,443                         0                    1,443
Total Nonmarketable  b........................          510,130                 4,993,771                5,503,901
Total Public Debt Outstanding ................       12,732,612                 5,016,561               17,749,172
TABLE II -- STATUTORY DEBT LIMIT, AUGUST 31, 2014
(Millions of dollars)
                                              Amount Outstanding
Title                                         Debt Held             Intragovernmental         Totals
                                                 By the Public 17, 2Holdings
Debt Subject to Limit: 17, 20
  Total Public Debt Outstanding...............       12,732,612                 5,016,561               17,749,172
  Less Debt Not Subject to Limit:
    Other Debt ...............................              485                         0                      485
    Unamortized Discount  3...................           15,742                    12,421                   28,163
    Federal Financing Bank  1     ............                0                    13,612                   13,612
    Hope Bonds 19.............................                0                       494                      494
  Plus Other Debt Subject to Limit:
    Guaranteed Debt of Government Agencies  4                 *                         0                        *
  Total Public Debt Subject to Limit .........       12,716,386                 4,990,033               17,706,419
  Statutory Debt Limit  5.....................................................................                   0
COMPILED AND PUBLISHED BY
THE BUREAU OF THE FISCAL SERVICE
www.TreasuryDirect.gov

Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding

The Interest Expense on the Debt Outstanding includes the monthly interest for:

Amortized discount or premium on bills, notes and bonds is also included in the monthly interest expense.

The fiscal year represents the total interest expense on the Debt Outstanding for a given fiscal year. This includes the months of October through September. View current month details (XLS Format, File size 199KB, uploaded 09/05/2014).

Note: To read or print a PDF document, you need the Adobe Acrobat Reader (v5.0 or higher) software installed on your computer. You can download the Adobe Acrobat Reader from the Adobe Website.

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Interest Expense Fiscal Year 2014
August $27,093,517,258.24
July $29,260,530,745.98
June $97,565,768,696.69
May $32,081,384,628.40
April $31,099,852,014.96
March $26,269,559,883.36
February $21,293,863,450.50
January $19,498,592,676.78
December $88,275,817,263.03
November $22,327,099,682.97
October $16,451,313,332.09
Fiscal Year Total $411,217,855,816.94
Available Historical Data Fiscal Year End
2013 $415,688,781,248.40
2012 $359,796,008,919.49
2011 $454,393,280,417.03
2010 $413,954,825,362.17
2009 $383,071,060,815.42
2008 $451,154,049,950.63
2007 $429,977,998,108.20
2006 $405,872,109,315.83
2005 $352,350,252,507.90
2004 $321,566,323,971.29
2003 $318,148,529,151.51
2002 $332,536,958,599.42
2001 $359,507,635,242.41
2000 $361,997,734,302.36
1999 $353,511,471,722.87
1998 $363,823,722,920.26
1997 $355,795,834,214.66
1996 $343,955,076,695.15
1995 $332,413,555,030.62
1994 $296,277,764,246.26
1993 $292,502,219,484.25
1992 $292,361,073,070.74
1991 $286,021,921,181.04
1990 $264,852,544,615.90
1989 $240,863,231,535.71
1988 $214,145,028,847.73

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fredgraph

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BND-10-Year-Treasury-Yield-09122014

 JIM ROGERS Financial disaster coming – Dollar collapse – Countries Move Away From USD

US Fed signals move to normalize monetary policy

Dollar Meltdown, Massive Financial Bubble, Economic Collapse Marc Faber

Peter Schiff Iraq Crisis Threatens Global Economy

Peter Schiff – Fantasy About US Recovery Is Not Going To Materialize

Most important video Americans will see today – Doug Casey Interview

James Grant: Two Alternative Outcomes From Fed Policy – Much Higher Inflation or More Money Printing

Investor Jim Grant on Bubbles And Bargains

Jim Rogers Discusses Concern Over The Market

Jim Rogers On Economic Collapse And The US Debt‬

US Economy 2014 Collapse – *Peter Schiff* – FED will cause Huge Economic Crisis!

US ECONOMY COLLAPSE WILL LEAVE MILLIONS IN POVERTY

There Will Be No Economic Recovery. Prepare Yourself Accordingly

US Massive Financial Crisis Coming

Dan Mitchell Discussing Harvard Survey, Arguing for Growth over Class Warfare

The Coming Stock Market Crash and The Death of Money with Jim Rickards

Market Crash, Economic collapse 2014, The coming of World War 3 – Stock Market

Forbes: Obama’s Economic Reforms Are the Definition of Insanity

Why America Should Default and You Should Live Abroad: Q&A with Doug Casey

Doug Casey-No Way Out-Stock, Bond and Real Estate Markets Will Collapse

Russia conspired to destroy US dollar with China – clip from Meltdown America documentary

http://www.caseyresearch.com/lg/meltdown-video

 

 

Here a bubble, there a bubble: Ol’ Marc Faber

Even after the Dow and the S&P 500 closed at new all-time highs, closely followed contrarian Marc Faber keeps sounding the alarm.

“We have a bubble in everything, everywhere,” the publisher of The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report told CNBC’s “Squawk Box” on Friday. Faber has long argued that the Federal Reserve’s massive asset purchasing programs and near-zero interest rates have inflated stock prices.

The catalyst for a market decline, as he sees it, could be a “raise in interest rates, not engineered by the Fed,” referring an increase in bond yields.

 

Faber also expressed concern about American consumers. “Their cost of living have gone up more than the salary increases, so they’re getting squeezed. So that’s why retailing is not doing particularly well.”

A real black swan event, he argued, would be a global recession. “The big surprise will be that the global economy slows down and goes into recession. And that will shock markets.”

If economies around the world can’t recovery with the Fed and other central banks pumping easy money into the system, that would send a dire message, Faber added. He believes the best way for world economies to recover is to cut the size of government.

Read MoreBond market hears Fed hawks; stocks see doves

There’s a dual-economy in the U.S. and around the world with the rich doing really well and others struggling, he said. “[But] the rich will get creamed one day, especially in Europe, on wealth taxes.”

On the other end of the market spectrum, longtime stock market bull Jeremy Siegel told CNBC on Tuesday (ahead of Wednesday’s Fed policy statement leaving interest rate guidance unchanged) that he stands by his Dow 18,000 prediction.

The Wharton School professor sees second half economic growth of 3 to 4 percent, S&P 500 earnings near $120, and the start of Fed rate hikes in the spring or summer of 2015

http://www.cnbc.com/id/102016166

 

Fed and TWTR Overvaluation, Evidence of Looming Market Crash: Stockman

The Federal Reserve Wednesday reassured investors that it will hold interest rates near zero for a “considerable time” after it ends the bond-buying program known as quantitative easing in October. In response, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) closed at a new record high.

Former Director of the Office of Management and Budget and author of the book, The Great Deformation, David Stockman, has significant concerns about that very policy.

“I’m worried… that we’ve got the greatest bubble created by a central bank in human history,” he told Yahoo Finance.

In a recent blog post, Stockman offered a handful of high-flying stocks as evidence of what he sees as “madness.”

                                               “…Twitter, is all that is required to remind us that once

                                               again markets are trading in the nosebleed section

                                               of history, rivaling even the madness of March 2000.”

Behind the madness

In an interview with Yahoo Finance, Stockman blamed Fed policy for creating that madness.

“We have been shoving zero-cost money into the financial markets for 6-years running,” he said. “That’s the kerosene that drives speculative trading – the carry trades. That’s what the gamblers use to fund their position as they move from one momentum play and trade to another.”

And that, he says, is not sustainable. While Stockman believes tech stocks are especially overvalued, he warns that it’s not just tech valuations that are inflated. “Everything’s massively overvalued, and it’s predicated on zero-cost overnight money that continues these carry trades; It can’t continue.”

And he still believes, as he has for some time – so far, incorrectly – that there will be a day of reckoning.

“When the trades begin to unwind because the carry cost has to normalize, you’re going to have a dramatic re-pricing dislocation in these financial markets.”

As Yahoo Finance’s Lauren Lyster points out in the associated video, investors who heeded Stockman’s advice last year would have missed out on a 28% run-up in stocks. But Stockman remains steadfast in his belief that the current Fed policy and the resultant market behavior can not continue. “I think what the Fed is doing is so unprecedented, what is happening in the markets is so unnatural,” he said. “This is dangerous, combustible stuff, and I don’t know when the explosion occurs – when the collapse suddenly is upon us – but when it happens, people will be happy that they got out of the way if they did.”

 

 

Federal Reserve Statistical Release, H.4.1, Factors Affecting Reserve Balances; title with eagle logo links to Statistical Release home page
Release Date: Thursday, September 11, 2014
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FEDERAL RESERVE statistical release

H.4.1

Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks September 11, 2014

1. Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions

Millions of dollars

Reserve Bank credit, related items, and
reserve balances of depository institutions at
Federal Reserve Banks
Averages of daily figures Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Week ended
Sep 10, 2014
Change from week ended
Sep 3, 2014 Sep 11, 2013
Reserve Bank credit 4,377,690 +    4,183 +  761,693 4,379,719
Securities held outright1 4,159,537 +    2,675 +  765,361 4,160,521
U.S. Treasury securities 2,439,657 +    2,671 +  401,376 2,440,637
Bills2          0          0          0          0
Notes and bonds, nominal2 2,325,368 +    2,678 +  386,333 2,326,351
Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed2     97,755          0 +   11,737     97,755
Inflation compensation3     16,534 –        7 +    3,306     16,531
Federal agency debt securities2     41,562          0 –   22,868     41,562
Mortgage-backed securities4 1,678,317 +        4 +  386,851 1,678,322
Unamortized premiums on securities held outright5    208,963 –      219 +    5,815    208,907
Unamortized discounts on securities held outright5    -18,664 +       21 –   12,958    -18,654
Repurchase agreements6          0          0          0          0
Loans        291 –        8 +       18        352
Primary credit         10 –       18 –        8         53
Secondary credit          0          0          0          0
Seasonal credit        247 +        9 +       94        266
Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility7         34          0 –       68         34
Other credit extensions          0          0          0          0
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC8      1,664 –        1 +      171      1,665
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II LLC9         63          0 –        1         63
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane III LLC10         22          0          0         22
Net portfolio holdings of TALF LLC11         44          0 –       80         44
Float       -675 –       69 +       94       -627
Central bank liquidity swaps12         77 +        1 –      243         77
Other Federal Reserve assets13     26,369 +    1,784 +    3,517     27,349
Foreign currency denominated assets14     22,933 –      353 –      737     22,801
Gold stock     11,041          0          0     11,041
Special drawing rights certificate account      5,200          0          0      5,200
Treasury currency outstanding15     46,103 +       14 +      820     46,103
Total factors supplying reserve funds 4,462,967 +    3,844 +  761,776 4,464,863

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. Footnotes appear at the end of the table.

1. Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions (continued)

Millions of dollars

Reserve Bank credit, related items, and
reserve balances of depository institutions at
Federal Reserve Banks
Averages of daily figures Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Week ended
Sep 10, 2014
Change from week ended
Sep 3, 2014 Sep 11, 2013
Currency in circulation15 1,292,467 –      442 +   84,956 1,291,993
Reverse repurchase agreements16    266,584 +      818 +  173,996    267,602
Foreign official and international accounts    102,228 –      296 +    9,640    107,303
Others    164,356 +    1,115 +  164,356    160,299
Treasury cash holdings        165 +        4 +       23        164
Deposits with F.R. Banks, other than reserve balances     52,715 –    6,170 –   19,233     53,117
Term deposits held by depository institutions          0          0          0          0
U.S. Treasury, General Account     39,081 –    3,787 +      530     31,872
Foreign official      5,432 –    1,134 –    3,562      5,241
Other17      8,202 –    1,248 –   16,201     16,004
Other liabilities and capital18     63,991 –        1 +      818     63,033
Total factors, other than reserve balances,
absorbing reserve funds
1,675,922 –    5,792 +  240,561 1,675,910
Reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks 2,787,045 +    9,636 +  521,214 2,788,954

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Includes securities lent to dealers under the overnight securities lending facility; refer to table 1A.
2. Face value of the securities.
3. Compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of inflation-indexed securities.
4. Guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. The current face value shown is the remaining principal balance of
the securities.
5. Reflects the premium or discount, which is the difference between the purchase price and the face value of the securities that has not been amortized.  For U.S. Treasury and Federal agency debt securities, amortization is on a straight-line basis.  For mortgage-backed securities, amortization is on an effective-interest basis.
6. Cash value of agreements.
7. Includes credit extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York to eligible borrowers through the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility.
8. Refer to table 4 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
9. Refer to table 5 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
10. Refer to table 6 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
11. Refer to table 7 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
12. Dollar value of foreign currency held under these agreements valued at the exchange rate to be used when the foreign currency is returned
to the foreign central bank. This exchange rate equals the market exchange rate used when the foreign currency was acquired from the
foreign central bank.
13. Includes accrued interest, which represents the daily accumulation of interest earned, and other accounts receivable.  Also, includes Reserve Bank premises and equipment net of allowances for depreciation.
14. Revalued daily at current foreign currency exchange rates.
15. Estimated.
16. Cash value of agreements, which are collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities, federal agency debt securities, and mortgage-backed securities.
17. Includes deposits held at the Reserve Banks by international and multilateral organizations, government-sponsored enterprises, and designated financial market utilities.
18. Includes the liabilities of Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC, Maiden Lane III LLC, and TALF LLC to entities other than the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, including liabilities that have recourse only to the portfolio holdings of these LLCs. Refer to table 4 through table 7 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9. Also includes the liability for interest on Federal Reserve notes due to U.S. Treasury. Refer to table 8 and table 9.

Sources: Federal Reserve Banks and the U.S. Department of the Treasury.

1A. Memorandum Items

Millions of dollars

Memorandum item Averages of daily figures Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Week ended
Sep 10, 2014
Change from week ended
Sep 3, 2014 Sep 11, 2013
Securities held in custody for foreign official and international accounts 3,338,309 –      417 +   61,832 3,343,937
Marketable U.S. Treasury securities1 3,010,563 –      456 +   86,414 3,016,027
Federal agency debt and mortgage-backed securities2    285,805 +       28 –   29,008    285,934
Other securities3     41,942 +       12 +    4,427     41,976
Securities lent to dealers     10,669 +    1,648 –    1,429     11,123
Overnight facility4     10,669 +    1,648 –    1,429     11,123
U.S. Treasury securities      9,860 +    1,721 –    1,405     10,373
Federal agency debt securities        810 –       72 –       23        750

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Includes securities and U.S. Treasury STRIPS at face value, and inflation compensation on TIPS. Does not include securities pledged as collateral to foreign official and international account holders against reverse repurchase agreements with the Federal Reserve presented in tables 1, 8, and 9.
2. Face value of federal agency securities and current face value of mortgage-backed securities, which is the remaining principal balance of the securities.
3. Includes non-marketable U.S. Treasury securities, supranationals, corporate bonds, asset-backed securities, and commercial paper at face value.
4. Face value. Fully collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities.
2. Maturity Distribution of Securities, Loans, and Selected Other Assets and Liabilities, September 10, 2014

Millions of dollars

Remaining Maturity Within 15
days
16 days to
90 days
91 days to
1 year
Over 1 year
to 5 years
Over 5 year
to 10 years
Over 10
years
All
Loans1        118        234          0          0          0        352
U.S. Treasury securities2
Holdings          0         90      3,194 1,037,162    742,261    657,930 2,440,637
Weekly changes          0          0          0 +    1,615 –        1 +    2,037 +    3,651
Federal agency debt securities3
Holdings      1,556      1,329      3,584     32,746          0      2,347     41,562
Weekly changes          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Mortgage-backed securities4
Holdings          0          0          0         10      4,698 1,673,614 1,678,322
Weekly changes          0          0          0          0 +      863 –      857 +        6
Asset-backed securities held by
TALF LLC5
         0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Repurchase agreements6          0          0          0
Central bank liquidity swaps7         77          0          0          0          0          0         77
Reverse repurchase agreements6    267,602          0    267,602
Term deposits          0          0          0          0

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.
…Not applicable.

1. Excludes the loans from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) to Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC, Maiden
Lane III LLC, and TALF LLC. The loans were eliminated when preparing the FRBNY’s statement of condition consistent with consolidation
under generally accepted accounting principles.
2. Face value. For inflation-indexed securities, includes the original face value and compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the
original face value of such securities.
3. Face value.
4. Guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. The current face value shown is the remaining principal balance of the securities.
5. Face value of asset-backed securities held by TALF LLC, which is the remaining principal balance of the underlying assets.
6. Cash value of agreements.
7. Dollar value of foreign currency held under these agreements valued at the exchange rate to be used when the foreign currency is returned to
the foreign central bank. This exchange rate equals the market exchange rate used when the foreign currency was acquired from the foreign
central bank.

3. Supplemental Information on Mortgage-Backed Securities

Millions of dollars

Account name Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Mortgage-backed securities held outright1 1,678,322
Commitments to buy mortgage-backed securities2     80,643
Commitments to sell mortgage-backed securities2          0
Cash and cash equivalents3          4
1. Guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. The current face value shown is the remaining principal balance of the securities.
2. Current face value. Generally settle within 180 days and include commitments associated with outright transactions, dollar rolls, and coupon swaps.
3. This amount is included in other Federal Reserve assets in table 1 and in other assets in table 8 and table 9.

4. Information on Principal Accounts of Maiden Lane LLC

Millions of dollars

Account name Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC1      1,665
Outstanding principal amount of loan extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York2          0
Accrued interest payable to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York2          0
Outstanding principal amount and accrued interest on loan payable to JPMorgan Chase & Co.3          0
1. Fair value. Fair value reflects an estimate of the price that would be received upon selling an asset if the transaction were to be conducted in an orderly market on the measurement date. Revalued quarterly. This table reflects valuations as of June 30, 2014. Any assets purchased after
this valuation date are initially recorded at cost until their estimated fair value as of the purchase date becomes available.
2. Book value. This amount was eliminated when preparing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s statement of condition consistent with consolidation under generally accepted accounting principles. Refer to the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
3. Book value. The fair value of these obligations is included in other liabilities and capital in table 1 and in other liabilities and accrued dividends in table 8 and table 9.

Note: On June 26, 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) extended credit to Maiden Lane LLC under the authority of section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. This limited liability company was formed to acquire certain assets of Bear Stearns and to manage those assets through time to maximize repayment of the credit extended and to minimize disruption to financial markets. Payments by Maiden Lane LLC from the proceeds of the net portfolio holdings will be made in the following order: operating expenses of the LLC, principal due to the FRBNY, interest due to the FRBNY, principal due to JPMorgan Chase & Co., and interest due to JPMorgan Chase & Co. Any remaining funds will be paid to the FRBNY.

5. Information on Principal Accounts of Maiden Lane II LLC

Millions of dollars

Account name Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II LLC1         63
Outstanding principal amount of loan extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York2          0
Accrued interest payable to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York2          0
Deferred payment and accrued interest payable to subsidiaries of American International Group, Inc.3          0
1. Fair value. Fair value reflects an estimate of the price that would be received upon selling an asset if the transaction were to be conducted in an orderly market on the measurement date. Revalued quarterly. This table reflects valuations as of June 30, 2014. Any assets purchased after
this valuation date are initially recorded at cost until their estimated fair value as of the purchase date becomes available.
2. Book value. This amount was eliminated when preparing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s statement of condition consistent with consolidation under generally accepted accounting principles. Refer to the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
3. Book value. The deferred payment represents the portion of the proceeds of the net portfolio holdings due to subsidiaries of American
International Group, Inc. in accordance with the asset purchase agreement. The fair value of this payment and accrued interest payable are
included in other liabilities and capital in table 1 and in other liabilities and accrued dividends in table 8 and table 9.

Note: On December 12, 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) began extending credit to Maiden Lane II LLC under the authority of section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. This limited liability company was formed to purchase residential mortgage-backed securities from the U.S. securities lending reinvestment portfolio of subsidiaries of American International Group, Inc. (AIG subsidiaries). Payments by Maiden Lane II LLC from the proceeds of the net portfolio holdings will be made in the following order: operating expenses of Maiden Lane II LLC, principal due to the FRBNY, interest due to the FRBNY, and deferred payment and interest due to AIG subsidiaries. Any remaining funds will be shared by the FRBNY and AIG subsidiaries.

6. Information on Principal Accounts of Maiden Lane III LLC

Millions of dollars

Account name Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane III LLC1         22
Outstanding principal amount of loan extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York2          0
Accrued interest payable to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York2          0
Outstanding principal amount and accrued interest on loan payable to American International Group, Inc.3          0
1. Fair value. Fair value reflects an estimate of the price that would be received upon selling an asset if the transaction were to be conducted in an orderly market on the measurement date. Revalued quarterly. This table reflects valuations as of June 30, 2014. Any assets purchased after
this valuation date are initially recorded at cost until their estimated fair value as of the purchase date becomes available.
2. Book value. This amount was eliminated when preparing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s statement of condition consistent with consolidation under generally accepted accounting principles. Refer to the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
3. Book value. The fair value of these obligations is included in other liabilities and capital in table 1 and in other liabilities and accrued dividends in table 8 and table 9.

Note: On November 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) began extending credit to Maiden Lane III LLC under the authority of section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. This limited liability company was formed to purchase multi-sector collateralized debt obligations (CDOs) on which the Financial Products group of American International Group, Inc. (AIG) has written credit default swap (CDS) contracts. In connection with the purchase of CDOs, the CDS counterparties will concurrently unwind the related CDS transactions. Payments by Maiden Lane III LLC from the proceeds of the net portfolio holdings will be made in the following order: operating expenses of Maiden Lane III LLC, principal due to the FRBNY, interest due to the FRBNY, principal due to AIG, and interest due to AIG. Any remaining funds will be shared by the FRBNY and AIG.

7. Information on Principal Accounts of TALF LLC

Millions of dollars

Account name Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Asset-backed securities holdings1          0
Other investments, net         44
Net portfolio holdings of TALF LLC         44
Outstanding principal amount of loan extended by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York2          0
Accrued interest payable to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York2          0
Funding provided by U.S. Treasury to TALF LLC, including accrued interest payable3          0
1. Fair value. Fair value reflects an estimate of the price that would be received upon selling an asset if the transaction were to be conducted in an orderly market on the measurement date.
2. Book value. This amount was eliminated when preparing the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s statement of condition consistent with consolidation under generally accepted accounting principles. Refer to the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
3. Book value. The fair value of these obligations is included in other liabilities and capital in table 1 and in other liabilities and accrued dividends in table 8 and table 9.

Note: On November 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve announced the creation of the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility (TALF) under theauthority of section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. The TALF is a facility under which the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) extended loans with a term of up to five years to holders of eligible asset-backed securities. The Federal Reserve closed the TALF for new loan extensions in 2010. The loans provided through the TALF to eligible borrowers are non-recourse, meaning that the obligation of the borrower can be discharged by surrendering the collateral to the FRBNY.

TALF LLC is a limited liability company formed to purchase and manage any asset-backed securities received by the FRBNY in connection with the decision of a borrower not to repay a TALF loan. TALF LLC has committed, for a fee, to purchase all asset-backed securities received by the FRBNY in conjunction with a TALF loan at a price equal to the TALF loan plus accrued but unpaid interest. Prior to January 15, 2013, the U.S. Treasury’s Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) committed backup funding to TALF LLC, providing credit protection to the FRBNY. However, the accumulated fees and income collected through the TALF and held by TALF LLC now exceed the remaining amount of TALF loans outstanding. Accordingly, the TARP credit protection commitment has been terminated, and TALF LLC has begun to distribute excess proceeds to the Treasury and the FRBNY. Any remaining funds will be shared by the FRBNY and the U.S. Treasury.

8. Consolidated Statement of Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks

Millions of dollars

Assets, liabilities, and capital Eliminations from consolidation Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Change since
Wednesday Wednesday
Sep 3, 2014 Sep 11, 2013
Assets
Gold certificate account     11,037          0          0
Special drawing rights certificate account      5,200          0          0
Coin      1,930 +        8 –       62
Securities, unamortized premiums and discounts, repurchase agreements, and loans 4,351,126 +    3,534 +  756,847
Securities held outright1 4,160,521 +    3,657 +  763,739
U.S. Treasury securities 2,440,637 +    3,651 +  399,549
Bills2          0          0          0
Notes and bonds, nominal2 2,326,351 +    3,661 +  385,784
Notes and bonds, inflation-indexed2     97,755          0 +   10,546
Inflation compensation3     16,531 –       10 +    3,219
Federal agency debt securities2     41,562          0 –   22,654
Mortgage-backed securities4 1,678,322 +        6 +  386,844
Unamortized premiums on securities held outright5    208,907 –      132 +    5,820
Unamortized discounts on securities held outright5    -18,654 +       19 –   12,787
Repurchase agreements6          0          0          0
Loans        352 –       10 +       75
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane LLC7      1,665 +        1 +      167
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane II LLC8         63          0 –        1
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden Lane III LLC9         22          0          0
Net portfolio holdings of TALF LLC10         44          0 –       68
Items in process of collection (0)         94 –       22 –       31
Bank premises      2,255          0 –       29
Central bank liquidity swaps11         77 +        1 –      243
Foreign currency denominated assets12     22,801 –      404 –      925
Other assets13     25,095 +    2,704 +    3,719
Total assets (0) 4,421,408 +    5,821 +  759,373

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. Footnotes appear at the end of the table.

8. Consolidated Statement of Condition of All Federal Reserve Banks (continued)

Millions of dollars

Assets, liabilities, and capital Eliminations from consolidation Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Change since
Wednesday Wednesday
Sep 3, 2014 Sep 11, 2013
Liabilities
Federal Reserve notes, net of F.R. Bank holdings 1,247,980 –    2,086 +   84,510
Reverse repurchase agreements14    267,602 +   17,296 +  175,438
Deposits (0) 2,842,072 –    8,612 +  499,663
Term deposits held by depository institutions          0          0          0
Other deposits held by depository institutions 2,788,954 –   24,799 +  513,312
U.S. Treasury, General Account     31,872 +   10,836 +    1,852
Foreign official      5,241 –    1,326 –    3,524
Other15 (0)     16,004 +    6,676 –   11,978
Deferred availability cash items (0)        721 –      482 –      163
Other liabilities and accrued dividends16      6,693 –      299 –    1,529
Total liabilities (0) 4,365,067 +    5,817 +  757,919
Capital accounts
Capital paid in     28,170 +        2 +      726
Surplus     28,170 +        2 +      726
Other capital accounts          0          0          0
Total capital     56,341 +        4 +    1,454

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Includes securities lent to dealers under the overnight securities lending facility; refer to table 1A.
2. Face value of the securities.
3. Compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of inflation-indexed securities.
4. Guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. The current face value shown is the remaining principal balance of the securities.
5. Reflects the premium or discount, which is the difference between the purchase price and the face value of the securities that has not been amortized.  For U.S. Treasury and Federal agency debt securities, amortization is on a straight-line basis.  For mortgage-backed securities, amortization is on an effective-interest basis.
6. Cash value of agreements, which are collateralized by U.S. Treasury and federal agency securities.
7. Refer to table 4 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
8. Refer to table 5 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
9. Refer to table 6 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
10. Refer to table 7 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9.
11. Dollar value of foreign currency held under these agreements valued at the exchange rate to be used when the foreign currency is returned to
the foreign central bank. This exchange rate equals the market exchange rate used when the foreign currency was acquired from the foreign
central bank.
12. Revalued daily at current foreign currency exchange rates.
13. Includes accrued interest, which represents the daily accumulation of interest earned, and other accounts receivable.
14. Cash value of agreements, which are collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities, federal agency debt securities, and mortgage-backed securities.
15. Includes deposits held at the Reserve Banks by international and multilateral organizations, government-sponsored enterprises, and designated financial market utilities.
16. Includes the liabilities of Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC, Maiden Lane III LLC, and TALF LLC to entities other than the Federal
Reserve Bank of New York, including liabilities that have recourse only to the portfolio holdings of these LLCs. Refer to table 4 through table 7 and the note on consolidation accompanying table 9. Also includes the liability for interest on Federal Reserve notes due to U.S. Treasury.

9. Statement of Condition of Each Federal Reserve Bank, September 10, 2014

Millions of dollars

Assets, liabilities, and capital Total Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas Dallas San
City Francisco
Assets
Gold certificate account     11,037        352      4,125        338        464        824      1,349        706        278        173        291        880      1,257
Special drawing rights certificate acct.      5,200        196      1,818        210        237        412        654        424        150         90        153        282        574
Coin      1,930         32         94        124        123        320        222        276         25         46        153        182        332
Securities, unamortized premiums and discounts, repurchase agreements,
and loans
4,351,126     88,009 2,670,390    104,231     94,993    243,168    240,542    177,833     53,725     26,795     57,330    132,586    461,524
Securities held outright1 4,160,521     84,160 2,553,576     99,673     90,839    232,534    229,991    170,046     51,317     25,497     54,804    126,772    441,311
U.S. Treasury securities 2,440,637     49,370 1,497,974     58,470     53,288    136,409    134,917     99,752     30,104     14,957     32,149     74,367    258,881
Bills2          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Notes and bonds3 2,440,637     49,370 1,497,974     58,470     53,288    136,409    134,917     99,752     30,104     14,957     32,149     74,367    258,881
Federal agency debt securities2     41,562        841     25,509        996        907      2,323      2,298      1,699        513        255        547      1,266      4,409
Mortgage-backed securities4 1,678,322     33,949 1,030,093     40,207     36,644     93,803     92,777     68,595     20,701     10,285     22,107     51,139    178,021
Unamortized premiums on securities held outright5    208,907      4,226    128,220      5,005      4,561     11,676     11,548      8,538      2,577      1,280      2,752      6,365     22,159
Unamortized discounts on securities held outright5    -18,654       -377    -11,449       -447       -407     -1,043     -1,031       -762       -230       -114       -246       -568     -1,979
Repurchase agreements6          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Loans        352          1         44          0          0          0         34         11         61        132         20         17         33
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden
Lane LLC7      1,665          0      1,665          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden
Lane II LLC8         63          0         63          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Net portfolio holdings of Maiden
Lane III LLC9         22          0         22          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Net portfolio holdings of TALF LLC10         44          0         44          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Items in process of collection         94          0          0          0          0          0         93          0          0          1          0          0          0
Bank premises      2,255        121        434         74        110        222        209        198        124         97        243        224        200
Central bank liquidity swaps11         77          4         25          6          6         16          4          2          1          0          1          1         11
Foreign currency denominated assets12     22,801      1,037      7,335      1,714      1,813      4,754      1,311        629        192         96        240        381      3,299
Other assets13     25,095        535     15,039        739        546      1,547      1,374      1,014        356        219        347        798      2,580
Interdistrict settlement account          0 +   10,547 –   58,585 +    2,678 +    9,252 +      197 +    8,040 –   10,297 –   10,950 –    2,083 –      134 +    2,635 +   48,701
Total assets 4,421,408    100,833 2,642,468    110,114    107,543    251,460    253,799    170,787     43,900     25,434     58,623    137,969    518,478

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. Footnotes appear at the end of the table.

9. Statement of Condition of Each Federal Reserve Bank, September 10, 2014 (continued)

Millions of dollars

Assets, liabilities, and capital Total Boston New York Philadelphia Cleveland Richmond Atlanta Chicago St. Louis Minneapolis Kansas Dallas San
City Francisco
Liabilities
Federal Reserve notes outstanding 1,443,974     44,572    489,349     42,766     65,118    103,568    212,875     94,569     37,360     21,242     36,783    115,911    179,862
Less: Notes held by F.R. Banks    195,994      5,311     63,063      6,357      8,870     11,177     20,690     11,915      4,937      4,278      5,302     25,736     28,359
Federal Reserve notes, net 1,247,980     39,261    426,285     36,409     56,248     92,391    192,186     82,654     32,423     16,964     31,481     90,175    151,503
Reverse repurchase agreements14    267,602      5,413    164,244      6,411      5,843     14,956     14,793     10,937      3,301      1,640      3,525      8,154     28,385
Deposits 2,842,072     53,409 2,030,175     62,876     40,791    131,999     42,547     75,315      7,510      6,356     22,882     38,429    329,783
Term deposits held by depository institutions          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Other deposits held by depository institutions 2,788,954     53,397 1,977,410     62,837     40,788    131,731     42,538     75,306      7,510      6,355     22,881     38,428    329,774
U.S. Treasury, General Account     31,872          0     31,872          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Foreign official      5,241          2      5,214          3          3          8          2          1          0          0          0          1          6
Other15     16,004         11     15,679         36          0        260          7          7          0          0          1          0          3
Deferred availability cash items        721          0          0          0          0          0        611          0          0        110          0          0          0
Interest on Federal Reserve notes due
to U.S. Treasury16
     1,693         19      1,199         20         10         23         86         73         20         12         20         54        155
Other liabilities and accrued
dividends17
     5,000        167      2,179        211        208        544        361        282        142        118        126        208        454
Total liabilities 4,365,067     98,270 2,624,083    105,927    103,101    239,913    250,583    169,261     43,395     25,200     58,034    137,021    510,279
Capital
Capital paid in     28,170      1,282      9,193      2,093      2,221      5,773      1,608        763        252        117        295        474      4,099
Surplus     28,170      1,282      9,193      2,093      2,221      5,773      1,608        763        252        117        295        474      4,099
Other capital          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0          0
Total liabilities and capital 4,421,408    100,833 2,642,468    110,114    107,543    251,460    253,799    170,787     43,900     25,434     58,623    137,969    518,478

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding. Footnotes appear at the end of the table.

9. Statement of Condition of Each Federal Reserve Bank, September 10, 2014 (continued)

1. Includes securities lent to dealers under the overnight securities lending facility; refer to table 1A.
2. Face value of the securities.
3. Includes the original face value of inflation-indexed securities and compensation that adjusts for the effect of inflation on the original face value of such securities.
4. Guaranteed by Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac, and Ginnie Mae. The current face value shown is the remaining principal balance of the securities.
5. Reflects the premium or discount, which is the difference between the purchase price and the face value of the securities that has not been amortized.  For U.S. Treasury and Federal agency debt securities, amortization is on a straight-line basis.  For mortgage-backed securities, amortization is on an effective-interest basis.
6. Cash value of agreements, which are collateralized by U.S. Treasury and federal agency securities.
7. Refer to table 4 and the note on consolidation below.
8. Refer to table 5 and the note on consolidation below.
9. Refer to table 6 and the note on consolidation below.
10. Refer to table 7 and the note on consolidation below.
11. Dollar value of foreign currency held under these agreements valued at the exchange rate to be used when the foreign currency is returned to the foreign central bank. This exchange rate
equals the market exchange rate used when the foreign currency was acquired from the foreign central bank.
12. Revalued daily at current foreign currency exchange rates.
13. Includes accrued interest, which represents the daily accumulation of interest earned, and other accounts receivable.
14. Cash value of agreements, which are collateralized by U.S. Treasury securities, federal agency debt securities, and mortgage-backed securities.
15. Includes deposits held at the Reserve Banks by international and multilateral organizations, government-sponsored enterprises, and designated financial market utilities.
16. Represents the estimated weekly remittances to U.S. Treasury as interest on Federal Reserve notes or, in those cases where the Reserve Bank’s net earnings are not sufficient to equate surplus to capital paid-in, the deferred asset for interest on Federal Reserve notes. The amount of any deferred asset, which is presented as a negative amount in this line, represents the amount of the Federal Reserve Bank’s earnings that must be retained before remittances to the U.S. Treasury resume. The amounts on this line are calculated in accordance with Board of Governors policy, which requires the Federal Reserve Banks to remit residual earnings to the U.S. Treasury as interest on Federal Reserve notes after providing for the costs of operations, payment of dividends, and the amount necessary to equate surplus with capital paid-in.
17. Includes the liabilities of Maiden Lane LLC, Maiden Lane II LLC, Maiden Lane III LLC, and TALF LLC to entities other than the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, including liabilities that have recourse only to the portfolio holdings of these LLCs. Refer to table 4 through table 7 and the note on consolidation below.

Note on consolidation:

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York (FRBNY) has extended loans to several limited liability companies under the authority of section 13(3) of the Federal Reserve Act. On June 26, 2008, a loan was extended to Maiden Lane LLC, which was formed to acquire certain assets of Bear Stearns. On November 25, 2008, a loan was extended to Maiden Lane III LLC, which was formed to purchase multi-sector collateralized debt obligations on which the Financial Products group of the American International Group, Inc. has written credit default swap contracts. On December 12, 2008, a loan was extended to Maiden Lane II LLC, which was formed to purchase residential mortgage-backed securities from the U.S. securities lending reinvestment portfolio of subsidiaries of American International Group, Inc. On November 25, 2008, the Federal Reserve Board authorized the FRBNY to extend credit to TALF LLC, which was formed to purchase and manage any asset-backed securities received by the FRBNY in connection with the decision of a borrower not to repay a loan extended under the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan Facility.

The FRBNY is the primary beneficiary of TALF LLC, because of the two beneficiaries of the LLC, the FRBNY and the U.S. Treasury, the FRBNY is primarily responsible for directing the financial activities of TALF LLC. The FRBNY is the primary beneficiary of the other LLCs cited above because it will receive a majority of any residual returns of the LLCs and absorb a majority of any residual losses of the LLCs. Consistent with generally accepted accounting principles, the assets and liabilities of these LLCs have been consolidated with the assets and liabilities of the FRBNY in the preparation of the statements of condition shown on this release. As a consequence of the consolidation, the extensions of credit from the FRBNY to the LLCs are eliminated, the net assets of the LLCs appear as assets on the previous page (and in table 1 and table 8), and the liabilities of the LLCs to entities other than the FRBNY, including those with recourse only to the portfolio holdings of the LLCs, are included in other liabilities in this table (and table 1 and table 8).

10. Collateral Held against Federal Reserve Notes: Federal Reserve Agents’ Accounts

Millions of dollars

Federal Reserve notes and collateral Wednesday
Sep 10, 2014
Federal Reserve notes outstanding 1,443,974
Less: Notes held by F.R. Banks not subject to collateralization    195,994
Federal Reserve notes to be collateralized 1,247,980
Collateral held against Federal Reserve notes 1,247,980
Gold certificate account     11,037
Special drawing rights certificate account      5,200
U.S. Treasury, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities pledged1,2 1,231,743
Other assets pledged          0
Memo:
Total U.S. Treasury, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities1,2 4,160,521
Less: Face value of securities under reverse repurchase agreements    257,508
U.S. Treasury, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities eligible to be pledged 3,903,013

Note: Components may not sum to totals because of rounding.

1. Includes face value of U.S. Treasury, agency debt, and mortgage-backed securities held outright, compensation to adjust for the effect of inflation on the original face value of inflation-indexed securities, and cash value of repurchase agreements.
2. Includes securities lent to dealers under the overnight securities lending facility; refer to table 1A.

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Pronk Pops Show 118, July 26, 2018, Segment 1: Worse Post World War II Recession Followed By Worse U.S. Economic Recovery in 80 Years Since Great Depression of 1933 — Obama’s Economic Policy Mistakes Causing Increased Uncertainty and Lower Economic Growth and Job Creation — Real GDP Gap Continues — No Real Economic Recovery! — Videos

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Pronk Pops Show 118: July 26, 2013

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Segment 1: Worse Post World War II Recession Followed By Worse U.S. Economic Recovery in 80 Years Since Great Depression of 1933 — Obama’s Economic Policy Mistakes Causing Increased Uncertainty and Lower Economic Growth and Job Creation — Real GDP Gap Continues — No Real Economic Recovery!  — Videos

There Will Be No Economic Recovery. Prepare Yourself Accordingly.

The Economic Recovery: A Novel Perspective from Ed Leamer (The Numbers Game with Russ Roberts) mono

Published on Mar 7, 2013

Why has the current recovery from the Great Recession been so mediocre? Ed Leamer of UCLA points out that the last three recessions have all had mediocre recoveries of both output and employment. His explanation is that changes in the manufacturing sector have changed the pattern of layoffs, recalls and hiring during recessions and recoveries. The conversation concludes with a discussion of the forces driving the changes in the labor market and the implications for manufacturing.
1) Why the last three recessions all look different (1:44) 2) Employment growth for last eight recessions (4:12) 3) Why have the last three recessions been so different? (6:13) 4) The jobs cycle in manufacturing (8:52) 5) Excess capacity in construction has created a lag (10:33) 6) Manufacturing output versus manufacturing employment (11:14) 7) What’s the solution to the downturn? (12:20)
LINKS TO DATA REFERENCED — 1. Real GDP Growth From Peak to Peak Charts: FRED — “Real Gross Domestic Product, 3 Decimal (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/…). Note: Calculated using (X1-X0)/(X0), where X0 — recession peak quarter
2. Manufacturing Employment Chart: FRED — “All Employees: Manufacturing”(http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/…)

The Numbers Game with Russ Roberts — The Economic Recovery (Part 1)

Published on Sep 5, 2012

According the National Bureau of Economic Research, the US economy recovered from the recession at the beginning of the summer of 2009. Yet the recovery has been disappointing when compared to other recoveries. In this episode of the Numbers Game, John Taylor of Stanford University talks with host Russ Roberts about the nature of the recovery. How does it compare historically to other recoveries? How can we measure the pace of the recovery? The conversation ends with a discussion of possible explanations for why the recovery has been disappointing. 1) What is potential GDP? (0:52) 2) The economy never catches back up to trend (2:38) 3) The 1981 recession (3:16) 4) Is there a correct or potential level of GDP? (4:45) 5) A look at past recoveries (6:13) 6) Friedman and the Plucking Model (8:10) 7) A look at real growth rates in recoveries (8:59) 8) Employment and the recovery (10:20) LINKS TO DATA & PAPERS REFERENCED – 1. 2008-09 and 1981-1982 Recession & Recovery Charts: Real GDP (GDPC1) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from BEA.gov – http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/… Potential GDP (GDPPOT) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from CBO.gov – http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/… 2. 1907-08 and 1893-94 Recession & Recovery Charts: GDP data from NBER, compiled by Nathan Balke and Robert Gordon with adjustments by John Taylor for comparability with earlier charts –http://www.nber.org/data/abc/ Potential GDP calculations by John Taylor using a Hodrick-Prescott trend. 3. The Plucking Model Working Paper: The “Plucking Model” of Business Fluctuations Revisited by Milton Friedman Working Papers in Economics, E-88-48 — Hoover Institution, Stanford University http://hoohila.stanford.edu/workingpa… 4. Growth Rate of Real GDP Chart: Growth Rate calculated from Real GDP (GDPC1) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from BEA.gov – http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/… 5. Change in the Percentage of the Population that is Working Chart: Employment-Population Ratio (EMRATIO) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from BLS.gov – http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/…

The Numbers Game with Russ Roberts — The Economic Recovery (Part 2)

By historical standards, the current recovery from the recession that began in 2007 has been disappointing. As John Taylor of Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and the Department of Economics argues in Part 1 of this discussion on the economy, GDP has not returned to trend, the percent of the population that is working is flat rather than rising, and growth rates are below their usual levels after such a deep slump.

In this episode, Taylor and Number’s Game host Russ Roberts discuss possible explanations for the sluggish recovery: the ongoing slump in construction employment, the effect of housing prices on saving and spending decisions by households, and this recovery’s having been preceded by a financial crisis. Taylor rejects these arguments, arguing instead that the sluggish recovery can be explained by poor economic policy decisions made by the Bush and the Obama administrations.

1) On the argument that there are structural problems in the labor market (0:25)
2) Comparisons to the 1981 recession (2:16)
3) Is this recession special because it followed a financial crisis? (2:46)
4) What can the Great Depression tell us? (3:55)
5) Why is the current recovery so mediocre? (5:32)

LINKS TO DATA & PAPERS REFERENCED –

1. Construction Sector Employment Chart:
Bureau of Labor Statistics- Series CES2000000001, Seasonally Adjusted

2. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices Chart:
S&P Dow Jones Indices and Fiserv 9-25-12 – http://www.standardandpoors.com

3. Personal Saving as a % of Disposable Income Chart:
BEA NIPA Table 2.1 line 36

4. 2008-09 and 1981-1982 Recession & Recovery Charts:
Real GDP (GDPC1) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from BEA.gov – http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/…
Potential GDP (GDPPOT) downloaded from FRED 7/13/12, taken from CBO.gov – http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/…

5. ‘Deep Recessions, Fast Recoveries, and Financial Crises: Evidence from the American Record’ by Michael D. Bordo and Joseph G. Haubrich – http://media.hoover.org/sites/default…

6. 1893-94 and 1907-08 Recession & Recovery Charts:
GDP data from NBER, compiled by Nathan Balke and Robert Gordon with adjustments by John Taylor for comparability with earlier charts – http://www.nber.org/data/abc/. Potential GDP calculations by John Taylor using a Hodrick-Prescott trend.

7. 1933-36 Great Depression & Recovery Chart:
GDP data from NBER, compiled originally by Nathan Balke and Robert Gordon – http://www.nber.org/data/abc/.

8. 1929-1940 Unemployment Rate (% of Labor Force) Chart:
Historical Statistics of the United States (Millennial Edition) – Table Ba470-477: Labor Force, Employment, and Unemployment, 1890-1990 – http://hsus.cambridge.org/HSUSWeb/toc…

9. ‘An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s’ by John B. Taylor – http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/JEL…

The Numbers Game with Russ Roberts — The Economic Recovery (Part 3)

Here in part 3, Taylor argues that the slow pace of the recovery is due to poor policy decisions made by the Bush and Obama administrations that have increased the amount of uncertainty facing investors, consumers, and employers. Examples include the rising debt forecast, the fiscal cliff, expiring tax provisions, and quantitative easing. Taylor argues that the uncertainty surrounding these policies in the future along with increased regulation have held back the recovery.
LINKS TO DATA & PAPERS REFERENCED –
1. Debt as a Percentage of GDP Chart: Historical debt data – http://www.cbo.gov/publication/21728. Future debt projections – http://www.cbo.gov/publication/20776 and http://www.cbo.gov/publication/43288
2. Number of Provisions Expiring in the US Tax Code Chart: List of Expiring Tax Provisions – Prepared by the Staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, various issues – https://www.jct.gov/publications.html….
3. ‘Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty’ by Scott Baker, Nicholas Bloom and Steven Davis: http://faculty.chicagobooth.edu/steve…
4. An Era of Deregulation (?) Chart: Federal Register Historical Statistics (https://www.federalregister.gov/learn…) Notes: Dates based on calendar year; Excludes preliminary/unrevised pages, blank/skipped pages, and proposed rules pages
5. Number of Federal Workers Employed in Regulatory Activities Chart: Susan Dudley & Melinda Warren “Fiscal Stalemate Reflected in Regulators’ Budget: An Analysis of the U.S. Budget for Fiscal Years 2011 and 2012,” TSA adjustment obtained from DHS Budget in Brief. http://wc.wustl.edu/files/wc/2012_Reg… and http://www.dhs.gov/xlibrary/assets/mg….
6. ‘Dodd-Frank Progress Report’ by Davis Polk: According to Davis Polk (a firm monitoring Dodd-Frank progress) – “Dodd-Frank Progress Report, November 2012” http://www.davispolk.com/files/Public…
7. Reserve Balances Chart: H.4.1 Federal Reserve statistical release (reserve balances with Federal Reserve Banks). One can also get data from FRED http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/…
8. ‘The 2009 Stimulus Package: Two Years Later’ by John B. Taylor: http://media.hoover.org/sites/default…
9. ‘An Empirical Analysis of the Revival of Fiscal Activism in the 2000s’ by John B. Taylor – http://www.stanford.edu/~johntayl/JEL…
10. Economic Benefits of the ’09 Stimulus Package Chart: Chicago Booth IGM Forum on the Economic Stimulus, 2/15/12 – http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economi…. IGM Economic Experts Panel – http://www.igmchicago.org/igm-economic-experts-­panel
11. U.S. Misery Index Chart: Bureau of Labor Statistics – Unemployment Rate (http://www.bls.gov/webapps/legacy/cps… CPI-U (ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/­cpi/cpiai.txt)

Economists Examine Potential for Longer Recession

Milton Friedman – Greed

Milton Friedman – Socialism is Force

Milton Friedman – The role of government in a free society

Economics on One Foot

JobLossesJan2013

4employment_depth_max

6gdp_depth_max

Background on Recession/Recovery in Perspective

This page places the current economic downturn and recovery into historical (post-WWII) perspective. It compares output and employment changes from the 2007-2009 recession and subsequent recovery with the same data for the 10 previous recessions and recoveries that have occurred since 1946.

This page provides a current assessment of ‘how bad’ the 2007-2009 recession was relative to past recessions, and of how quickly the economy is recovering relative to past recoveries. It will continue to be updated as new data are released. This page does not provide forecasts, and the information should not be interpreted as such.

The charts provide information about the length and depth of recessions, and the robustness of recoveries.

Post-WWII Recessions

The Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research determines the beginning and ending dates of U.S. recessions. http://www.nber.org/cycles.html

It has determined that the U.S. economy experienced 10 recessions from 1946 through 2006. The committee determined that the 2007-2009 recession began in December 2007 and ended in June of 2009. Ending dates are typically announced several months after the recession officially ends. Read the June 2009 trough announcement by the NBER.

Length of Recessions

The 10 previous postwar recessions ranged in length from 6 months to 16 months, averaging about 10 1/2 months. The 2007-09 recession was the longest recession in the postwar period, at 18 months.

Depth of Recessions

The severity of a recession is determined in part by its length; perhaps even more important is the magnitude of the decline in economic activity. The 2007-09 recession was the deepest recession in the postwar period; at their lowest points employment fell by 6.3 percent and output fell by 5.1 percent.

http://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications_papers/studies/recession_perspective/

US-Real-GDP-Growth-Third-Estimate-for-Q1-2013

fredgraph

20_year_constant_maturity_rate

DGS30

For further information regarding treasury constant maturity data, please refer to:

http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/current/h15.pdf and http://www.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/Pages/yieldmethod.aspx.

M1 Money Stock (M1)

2013-07-08: 2,504.2 Billions of Dollars Last 5 Observations

2013-07-01: 2,537.1
2013-06-24: 2,510.0
2013-06-17: 2,494.2
2013-06-10: 2,508.6

Weekly, Ending Monday, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2013-07-19 6:26 AM CDT

M1_Max_630_378

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Release: H.6 Money Stock Measures
Notes:

M1 includes funds that are readily accessible for spending. M1 consists of: (1) currency outside the U.S. Treasury, Federal Reserve Banks, and the vaults of depository institutions; (2) traveler’s checks of nonbank issuers; (3) demand deposits; and (4) other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft accounts. Seasonally adjusted M1 is calculated by summing currency, traveler’s checks, demand deposits, and OCDs, each seasonally adjusted separately.

Velocity of M1 Money Stock (M1V)

2013:Q1: 6.474 Ratio Last 5 Observations

2012:Q4: 6.544
2012:Q3: 6.750
2012:Q2: 6.894
2012:Q1: 6.991

Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2013-06-26 9:01 AM CDT

M1V_Max_630_378

Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Release: Money Velocity
Notes:Calculated as the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP) to the quarterly average of M1 money stock (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1SL).
Velocity is a ratio of nominal GDP to a measure of the money supply. It can be thought of as the rate of turnover in the money supply–that is, the number of times one dollar is used to purchase final goods and services included in GDP.

M2 Money Stock (M2)

2013-07-08: 10,644.6 Billions of Dollars Last 5 Observations

2013-07-01: 10,653.4
2013-06-24: 10,573.2
2013-06-17: 10,594.5
2013-06-10: 10,590.3

Weekly, Ending Monday, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2013-07-19 6:26 AM CDT

M2

Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Release: H.6 Money Stock Measures

Notes:M2 includes a broader set of financial assets held principally by households. M2 consists of M1 plus: (1) savings deposits (which include money market deposit accounts, or MMDAs); (2) small-denomination time deposits (time deposits in amounts of less than $100,000); and (3) balances in retail money market mutual funds (MMMFs). Seasonally adjusted M2 is computed by summing savings deposits, small-denomination time deposits, and retail MMMFs, each seasonally adjusted separately, and adding this result to seasonally adjusted M1.

Velocity of M2 Money Stock (M2V)

2013:Q1: 1.530 Ratio Last 5 Observations

2012:Q4: 1.538
2012:Q3: 1.568
2012:Q2: 1.579
2012:Q1: 1.588

Quarterly, Seasonally Adjusted, Updated: 2013-06-26 9:01 AM CDT

M2_Velocity

Notes:

Calculated as the ratio of quarterly nominal GDP (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/GDP) to the quarterly average of M2 money stock (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M2SL).
Velocity is a ratio of nominal GDP to a measure of the money supply. It can be thought of as the rate of turnover in the money supply–that is, the number of times one dollar is used to purchase final goods and services included in GDP.

US Economic Crisis, Predictions For 2013

So Goes Detroit,Bernanke’s Gold Confession, Obama’s ACA Lies

Karl Denninger on Bernanke’s Last Stand and Unwinding Rehypothecation [PRIME INTEREST 45]

Uncertainty over the cost of new regulations is suppressing business investment & job creation.

Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee, Representative Kevin Brady, presents his opening statement to the committee and witnesses during the JEC hearing “Reducing Unnecessary and Costly Red Tape through Smarter Regulations” on June 26, 2013.

“We’re experiencing the worst economic recovery since WWII.”

CBS: “This Is The Worst Economic Recovery America Has Ever Had”

Obama’s Great Economic Recovery WHERE?

Treasury Yield Curve Methodology
2/26/2009
Page Content

This description was revised and updated on February 26, 2009.

The Treasury’s yield curve is derived using a quasi-cubic hermite spline function. Our inputs are the Close of Business (COB) bid yields for the on-the-run securities. Because the on-the-run securities typically trade close to par, those securities are designated as the knot points in the quasi-cubic hermite spline algorithm and the resulting yield curve is considered a par curve. However, Treasury reserves the option to input additional bid yields if there is no on-the-run security available for a given maturity range that we deem necessary for deriving a good fit for the quasi-cubic hermite spline curve. For example, we are using composites of off-the-run bonds in the 20-year range reflecting market yields available in that time tranche. Previously, a rolled-down 10-year note with a remaining maturity nearest to 7 years was also used as an additional input. That input was discontinued on May 26, 2005.

More specifically, the current inputs are the most recently auctioned 4-, 13-, 26-, and 52-week bills, plus the most recently auctioned 2-, 3-, 5-, 7-, and 10-year notes and the most recently auctioned 30-year bond, plus the composite rate in the 20-year maturity range. The quotes for these securities are obtained at or near the 3:30 PM close each trading day. The inputs for the four bills are their bond equivalent yields.

Between August 6, 2004 and June 2, 2008, to reduce volatility in the 1-year Treasury Constant Maturity (CMT) rate, and due to the fact that there were no on-the-run issues between 6-months and 2-years, Treasury used an additional input to insure that the 1-year CMT rate was consistent with on-the-run yields on either side of it’s maturity range. Thus, Treasury interpolated between the secondary bond equivalent yield on the most recently auctioned 26-week bill and the secondary market yield on the most recently auctioned 2-year note and inputted the resulting yield as an additional knot point for the derivation of the daily Treasury Yield Curve. The result of that step was that the 1-year CMT was generally the same as the interpolated rate during that time period. As of June 3, 2008, the interpolated yield was dropped as a yield curve input and the on-the-run 52-week bill was added as an input knot point in the quasi-cubic hermite spline algorithm and resulting yield curve.

Between December 3, 2007 and November 7, 2008, due to Treasury’s discontinuance of 3-year notes, we added a composite rate in the 3-year range based on an average of off-the-run securities in that time tranche. This composite was replaced on November 10, 2008 with the on-the-run 3-year note upon its reintroduction.

Treasury does not provide the computer formulation of our quasi-cubic hermite spline yield curve derivation program. However, we have found that most researchers have been able to reasonably match our results using alternative cubic spline formulas.

Treasury reviews its yield curve derivation methodology on a regular basis and reserves the right to modify, adjust or improve the methodology at its option. If Treasury determines that the methodology needs to be changed or updated, Treasury will revise the above description to reflect such changes.

Yield curve rates are usually available at Treasury’s interest rate web sites by 6:00 PM Eastern Time each trading day, but may be delayed due to system problems or other issues. Every attempt is made to make this data available as soon as possible.

Office of Debt Management Department of the Treasury

FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT SERVICE
STAR – TREASURY FINANCIAL DATABASE
TABLE 1. SUMMARY OF RECEIPTS, OUTLAYS AND THE DEFICIT/SURPLUS BY MONTH OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT (IN MILLIONS)

ACCOUNTING DATE: 06/13

PERIOD RECEIPTS OUTLAYS DEFICIT/SURPLUS (-)
+ ____________________________________________________________ _____________________ _____________________ _____________________
PRIOR YEAR

OCTOBER 163,072 261,539 98,466
NOVEMBER 152,402 289,704 137,302
DECEMBER 239,963 325,930 85,967
JANUARY 234,319 261,726 27,407
FEBRUARY 103,413 335,090 231,677
MARCH 171,215 369,372 198,157
APRIL 318,807 259,690 -59,117
MAY 180,713 305,348 124,636
JUNE 260,177 319,919 59,741
JULY 184,585 254,190 69,604
AUGUST 178,860 369,393 190,533
SEPTEMBER 261,566 186,386 -75,180

YEAR-TO-DATE 2,449,093 3,538,286 1,089,193

CURRENT YEAR

OCTOBER 184,316 304,311 119,995
NOVEMBER 161,730 333,841 172,112
DECEMBER 269,508 270,699 1,191
JANUARY 272,225 269,342 -2,883
FEBRUARY 122,815 326,354 203,539
MARCH 186,018 292,548 106,530
APRIL 406,723 293,834 -112,889
MAY 197,182 335,914 138,732
JUNE 286,627 170,126 -116,501

YEAR-TO-DATE 2,087,143 2,596,968 509,825

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Pronk Pops Show 114, June 21, 2013, Segment 2: Bernanke and Federal Reserve Will End The Keyboarding of Money and Buying Bonds in 2014 and May Lower Unemployment Threshold Below 6.5% — Videos

Posted on June 21, 2013. Filed under: American History, Budgetary Policy, Business, Economics, Education, Employment, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, Foreign Policy, Government, Government Spending, History, Illegal Immigration, Immigration, Investments, Labor Economics, Law, Legal Immigration, Media, Monetary Policy, Philosophy, Politics, Polls, Radio, Security, Tax Policy, Videos, Wealth, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

Pronk Pops Show 114: June 21, 2013

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Segment 2: Bernanke and Federal Reserve Will End The Keyboarding of Money and Buying Bonds in 2014 and May Lower Unemployment Threshold Below 6.5% — Videos

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Bernanke Says Fed on Course to End Asset Buying in 2014

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke said the central bank may start dialing down its unprecedented bond-buying program this year and end it entirely in mid-2014 if the economy finally achieves the sustainable growth the Fed has sought since the recession ended in 2009.

The Federal Open Market Committee today left the monthly pace of bond purchases unchanged at $85 billion, while saying that “downside risks to the outlook for the economy and the labor market” have diminished. Policy makers raised their growth forecasts for next year to a range of 3 percent to 3.5 percent and reduced their outlook for unemployment to as low as 6.5 percent.

“If the incoming data are broadly consistent with this forecast, the committee currently anticipates that it would be appropriate to moderate the pace of purchases later this year,” Bernanke said in a press conference in Washington. If later reports meet the Fed’s expectations, “we will continue to reduce the pace of purchases in measured steps through the first half of next year, ending purchases around mid-year.”

Stocks and Treasuries slid as Bernanke’s comments raised the prospect of an end to the quantitative easing that has fueled a rally in financial markets and helped keep the world’s largest economy expanding in the face of federal budget cuts, a slowdown in China and a recession in the euro area.

Connecting Dots

“The Fed is out of the closet,” said Ward McCarthy, chief financial economist at Jefferies Group LLC in New York and a former Richmond Fed economist. “They expect to end these QE purchases. Bernanke wasn’t more specific than later this year, but connecting all the dots suggests he is thinking in the fourth quarter.”

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index declined 1.4 percent to 1,628.93. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note jumped to 2.36 percent, the highest since March 2012, from 2.19 percent late yesterday.

Still, Bernanke tried to temper his message by saying that the Fed has “no deterministic or fixed plan” to end asset purchases.

“If you draw the conclusion that I just said that our policies — that our purchases will end in the middle of next year, you’ve drawn the wrong conclusion, because our purchases are tied to what happens in the economy,” he said. “If the economy does not improve along the lines that we expect, we will provide additional support.”

Open-Ended

Bernanke is expanding the Fed’s balance sheet toward $4 trillion as he seeks to reduce a jobless rate that stands at 7.6 percent after four years of economic growth. The Fed’s open-ended purchases, started last September and expanded in December, are unprecedented. In two previous rounds, it specified total purchases in advance.

“I’m surprised at how badly the Fed wants to taper” to a slower pace of purchases, said Julia Coronado, the chief economist for North America at BNP Paribas SA in New York and a former Fed economist. The Fed has “greater confidence than the average private sector forecaster in the outlook.”

The economy will grow 1.9 percent in 2013 and 2.7 percent in 2014, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The economy has not grown more than 3 percent over the course of 12 months since the four quarters ending in June 2006.

The Fed also left unchanged its statement that it plans to hold its target interest rate near zero as long as unemployment remains above 6.5 percent and the outlook for inflation doesn’t exceed 2.5 percent.

Unemployment Threshold

Bernanke said policy makers might aim for a lower unemployment threshold before considering an increase in short-term interest rates.

“In terms of adjusting the threshold, I think that’s something that might happen,” he said in response to a question. “If it did happen, it would be to lower it, I’m sure, not to raise it.” He said an interest-rate increase is still “far in the future.”

Fed officials lowered their forecasts for the unemployment and inflation rates this year.

They now see a jobless rate of 7.2 percent to 7.3 percent, compared with 7.3 percent to 7.5 percent in their March forecasts. They predict the jobless rate will fall to 6.5 percent to 6.8 percent in 2014.

“Labor market conditions have shown further improvement in recent months, on balance, but the unemployment rate remains elevated,” the FOMC said in its statement. “Partly reflecting transitory influences, inflation has been running below the committee’s longer-run objective, but longer term inflation expectations have remained stable.”

Target Rate

Fifteen of 19 policy makers expect no increase in the federal funds rate before 2015, according to today’s forecasts. In March, 14 policy makers had that expectation.

The Fed repeated that it will keep buying assets “until the outlook for the labor market has improved substantially.” Bond purchases will remain divided between $40 billion a month of mortgage-backed securities and $45 billion a month of Treasury securities. The central bank also will continue reinvesting securities as they mature.

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard dissented for the first time in his tenure on the FOMC, saying the committee should “signal more strongly its willingness to defend its inflation goal in light of recent low inflation readings.”

Kansas City Fed President Esther George dissented for the fourth meeting in a row, continuing to cite concern that keeping the benchmark interest rate near zero risks creating “economic and financial imbalances,” including asset price bubbles.

Economists’ Forecasts

No change in policy was expected at today’s meeting. Fifty-eight of 59 economists in a June 4-5 Bloomberg Survey predicted the central bank would maintain the pace of purchases.

Inflation is providing little impetus for a tapering in bond purchases. A gauge of consumer prices excluding food and energy that is watched by the Fed rose 1.1 percent in the year through April, matching the smallest gain since records started in 1960. Officials expect inflation to slowly rise in coming years, with core prices climbing to 1.5 percent to 1.8 percent in 2014 and 1.7 percent to 2 percent in 2015.

Speculation that an improving economy will prompt Fed policy makers to reduce bond buying last month triggered the biggest jump in 10-year Treasury yields since December 2010.

About $2 trillion has been erased from the value of global equities since Bernanke told U.S. lawmakers on May 22 that the FOMC “could” consider reducing bond purchases within “the next few meetings” if officials see signs of improvement in the labor market and are convinced the gains can be sustained.

Mortgage Rates

Mortgage rates have soared the most in a decade on speculation the Fed’s purchases may slow. The interest rate on a 30-year fixed home loan climbed to a 14-month high of 3.98 percent last week, according to data compiled by Freddie Mac.

Bernanke is nearing the end of his second four-year term, a period marked by unprecedented measures to battle the deepest recession since the 1930s and then to keep the economy growing at a pace that’s brisk enough to put millions of unemployed Americans back to work.

The former Princeton professor cut the Fed’s target interest rate almost to zero in December 2008 and has led the central bank in three rounds of large-scale asset purchases that have swelled the Fed’s balance sheet to a record $3.41 trillion.

President Barack Obama, in an interview on PBS this week, provided one of the clearest signals yet that Bernanke may not remain beyond the end of his term on Jan. 31. Bernanke “already stayed a lot longer than he wanted or he was supposed to,” Obama said.

Bernanke declined to discuss his future at today’s press conference.

“We just spent two days working on monetary policy issues and I would like to keep the debate, discussion, questions here on policy,” he said in response to a question. “I don’t have anything for you on my personal plans.”

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-06-19/fed-keeps-85-billion-pace-of-bond-buying-sees-risks-waning.html

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Real gross domestic product (GDP) rose 1.9 percent in the first quarter of 2012 after rising 3.0 percent in the

fourth quarter, according to estimates released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The first-quarter growth rate was unchanged from the second estimate released in May.

Revisions to GDP

For the third estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth, upward revisions to net exports and business investment in structures were offset by downward revisions to consumer spending, inventory investment, and state and local government spending.

Disposable income and saving Real disposable personal income—which adjusts personal income for taxes and inflation—rose 0.7 percent in the first quarter, compared with 0.2 percent in the fourth quarter. The personal saving rate—saving as a percentage of disposable personal income—was 3.7 percent, compared with 4.2 percent in the fourth quarter.

The personal saving rate has declined for six quarters in a row.

GDP highlights

Net exports increased (after decreasing in the fourth quarter), consumer spending accelerated, and residential housing investment picked up in the first quarter. These positive economic contributions, however, were more than offset by a slowdown in inventory investment.

The slowdown in inventory investment reflected a sharp downturn in the manufacturing and wholesale industries. In contrast,

retail inventory investment turned up, especially by motor vehicles dealers.

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IT’S OFFICIAL: Obama Recovery Now Ranks Dead Last in Modern Times

7/6/12

Obama now ranks 10th of 10 recoveries in both jobs & economic growth

“…With the new June jobs report in hand, President Barack Obama’s economic recovery now ranks as the worst in modern times in terms of both job creation and economic growth, says the GOP leader of Congress’s Joint Economic Committee.
Texas Congressman Kevin Brady, the top Republican on the Joint Economic Committee, observed that the June Employment Report released today by the Bureau of Labor Statistics along with the gross domestic product report released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis on June 28th has marked a milestone: President Obama’s economic recovery ranks as dead last in the post-World War II era.
“Since 1945, the United States has had ten economic recoveries that lasted more than one year. In terms of both how fast the U.S. economy has recovered and how many private sector jobs have been created since the recession’s low point, President Obama now ranks tenth of ten – that’s dead last”, said Brady.
“Three years after the recession officially ended in June 2009, we still have more than four million fewer private sector jobs than we did when the recession started,” he continued. “And for the 41st consecutive month, the unemployment rate has soared above a discouraging 8%.”
Brady says that while President Obama boosts about the 4.4 million private sector jobs he claims have been created during the latest 28 months, put in perspective “President Obama’s recovery has been weaker than every one of his predecessors in the past seven decades. He can try to spin it any way he wants but when measured by jobs or by economic growth he’s at the bottom of the list.”
Last week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that real GDP grew expanded by 6.7% over eleven quarters since the recession ended. Today, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the number of private sector jobs had grown by a mere 4.1% since the cyclical low point.
In contrast, real GDP expanded by 17.6%, and private sector jobs ballooned by 10.7% during comparable periods of the Reagan recovery. “Obama’s economic record, frankly, is embarrassing,” Brady said.
“Think about it – despite President Obama’s stimulus, financial bailout, housing bailout, auto bailout, cash-for-clunkers, cash-for-caulkers and an unprecedented five trillion dollars in deficit spending, the Obama recovery is officially dead last in results. Can unemployed Americans really afford four more years of this failed economic leadership?” …”

http://kevinbrady.house.gov/brady-news-releases/its-official-obama-recovery-now-ranks-dead-last-in-modern-times/

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Pronk Pops Show 49, October 12, 2011: Segment 1: President Obama Beats 62 Year Record Held By Reagan: Unemployment Rate Over 8% For 32 Months and Over 9% For 27 Months!–Average Weeks Unemployed Hits All Time High of 40.5 Weeks!–Videos

Posted on October 12, 2011. Filed under: American History, Budgetary Policy, Business, Economics, Education, Employment, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, Foreign Policy, Government, Government Spending, Health Care Insurance, History, Housing, Illegal Immigration, Immigration, Investments, Labor Economics, Monetary Policy, Philosophy, Politics, Polls, Public Sector Unions, Security, Tax Policy, Unions, Videos, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |

Pronk Pops Show 49:October 12, 2011

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Segment 1: President Obama Beats 62 Year Record Held By Reagan: Unemployment Rate Over 8% For 32 Months and Over 9% For 27 Months!–Average Weeks Unemployed Hits All Time High of 40.5 Weeks!–Videos

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Dealing with Long-term Unemployment

President Obama made history in September when he decisively beat President Reagan’s record for the worst U.S. economy since the Great Depression, in terms of unemployment. The first Friday of every month at 7:30 a.m., the Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), publishes the Employment Situation, as it did on Oct. 7. The BLS reported that the unemployment rate in September remained unchanged at 9.1 percent, with 14 million Americans unemployed. This is more than the estimated 13 million Americans unemployed in the worst month of the Great Depression, March 1933.

Since 1948, the BLS has been publishing the monthly unemployment rate statistics known to economists as U3 or the headline unemployment rate.

U.S. Unemployment Rate Percent, 1948 to Present

For this 63 year post-World War II period Reagan held the record of 27 months for the longest and worst U.S. economy in terms of unemployment rates exceeding 8 percent.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5
1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8
1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3
1984 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3

Obama has decisively surpassed Reagan’s record with 32 months of the unemployment rate above 8 percent.The U.S. economy’s unemployment rate is expected to remain over 8 percent for the next 12 to 24 months.

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2009 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.9
2010 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.4
2011 9.0 8.9 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1

While the U3 headline unemployment rate number gets the attention of most journalists, among economists and investment analysts the U6 total unemployment rate gets more attention. It includes people who want to work full time but have been unable to find work. The U6 unemployment rate increased from 16.2 percent in August to 16.5 percent in September. This represents more than 25.4 million unemployed and underemployed Americans.

Unlike the U3 unemployment rate, the U6 unemployment rate includes marginal attached workers including discouraged workers and individuals who are working part time but looking for full-time employment.

The BLS defines marginally attached workers as “persons not in the labor force who want and are available for work, and who have looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months (or since the end of their last job if they held one within the past 12 months), but were not counted as unemployed because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey.”

Discouraged workers are marginally attached workers who are not currently looking for work because there are no jobs available or there are none for which they would qualify.

What is even worse for those searching for a job is the average weeks unemployed has more than doubled from 19.9 weeks in January 2009 to 40.5 weeks in September 2011. During the Reagan years the average weeks unemployed in January 1981 was 14.3 weeks and peaked at 21.2 weeks in July 1983 and fell to 7.3 weeks in January 1985.

In September, 103,000 new jobs were created as reported in the BLS’s Establishment Survey Data. For the last six months an average of 72,000 new jobs were created monthly compared with 161,000 for the seven months prior to April 2011. The U.S. economy needs to create between 250,000 to 300,000 new jobs each month to reduce the unemployment rate by .1 percent.

Every month high school and college students, graduates and dropouts enter the labor force for the first time. In order to keep the unemployment rate unchanged, the U.S. economy needs to create a minimum of 100,000 to 150,000 new jobs each month to absorb new entrants into the labor market. The September unemployment rate among teenagers was 24.6 percent.

The U.S. economy is on the brink of another recession with the real Gross Domestic Product growth rate approaching zero. For the next 6 to 12 months many economists are predicting the unemployment rate will rise from 9.1 percent to over 10 percent before  falling back down  under 9 percent in the following 12 months.

Reagan’s Economic Recovery Tax Act (ERTA) of 1981 reduced tax rates by about 25 percent, one of the largest cuts in the postwar period. Taxes were cut again with the Tax Reform Act of 1986, which reduced tax rates, broadened the tax base and eliminated many deductions. The top marginal individual income tax rates were reduced from 70 percent to 28 percent as a result of the 1981 and 1986 bills.

In 1981 the top 1 percent of all taxpayers paid 17.58 percent of all personal income taxes. By 1988 the top 1 percent of all taxpayers paid 27.58 percent of all taxes.

Reagan’s economic policies resulted in a robust economic recovery, with a record growth in private sector jobs. At the start of the Reagan administration in January 1981, the unemployment rate was 7.5 percent. At the end of the Reagan administration in January 1989, the unemployment rate was 5.4 percent . The Reagan economic expansion was the second longest in U.S. economic history, surpassed only by the one which began in 1991 by George H.W. Bush.

Obama’s proposed $447 billion American Jobs Act provides a temporary one-year cut in payroll taxes and more government spending to be paid for by permanent increases in tax rates. Obama’s first jobs or stimulus package of $787 billion, the American Recovery and Reinvest Act of 2009, was supposed to create jobs and keep the unemployment rate less than 8 percent.

The Congressional Budget Office on Oct. 7 released their estimates of the impact of the American Jobs Act. For fiscal years 2012 and 2013, it would increase the deficit by $284.8 billionand $110.6 billion respectively. President Barack Obama continues his failed economic policies of more and more deficit spending.

This has resulted in unprecedented and massive budget deficits in Fiscal Years 2009, 2010, and 2011 of $1.41 trillion, $1.29 trillion and $1.3 trillion respectively. This is a total of $4 trillion in deficit spending and an increase in the national debt in just three years under the Obama administration and Democratic Party control of both the House of Representatives and Senate.This is the height of fiscal irresponsibility.

The vast majority of the American people want federal government spending and taxes cut, budgets balanced and the unemployment  rate brought down to under 4 percent. Instead, Obama wants to repeat his economic policy mistakes. This does not bode well for Obama’s chances of being re-elected president for a second term.

All statistics are from the Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistic, October, 2011

Unemployment Rate (U-3)

Series Id: LNS14000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1948 3.4 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.8 4.0
1949 4.3 4.7 5.0 5.3 6.1 6.2 6.7 6.8 6.6 7.9 6.4 6.6
1950 6.5 6.4 6.3 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.0 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.3
1951 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.1
1952 3.2 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7
1953 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.1 3.5 4.5
1954 4.9 5.2 5.7 5.9 5.9 5.6 5.8 6.0 6.1 5.7 5.3 5.0
1955 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.2
1956 4.0 3.9 4.2 4.0 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.1 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.2
1957 4.2 3.9 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.5 5.1 5.2
1958 5.8 6.4 6.7 7.4 7.4 7.3 7.5 7.4 7.1 6.7 6.2 6.2
1959 6.0 5.9 5.6 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.3
1960 5.2 4.8 5.4 5.2 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.6 5.5 6.1 6.1 6.6
1961 6.6 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.1 6.9 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.5 6.1 6.0
1962 5.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.7 5.5
1963 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.5
1964 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.1 4.8 5.0
1965 4.9 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.0
1966 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8
1967 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.8
1968 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4
1969 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.5
1970 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.0 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.9 6.1
1971 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.0 6.0
1972 5.8 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.3 5.2
1973 4.9 5.0 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.8 4.9
1974 5.1 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.1 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.9 6.0 6.6 7.2
1975 8.1 8.1 8.6 8.8 9.0 8.8 8.6 8.4 8.4 8.4 8.3 8.2
1976 7.9 7.7 7.6 7.7 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.8 7.6 7.7 7.8 7.8
1977 7.5 7.6 7.4 7.2 7.0 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.8 6.4
1978 6.4 6.3 6.3 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.2 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.9 6.0
1979 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.0
1980 6.3 6.3 6.3 6.9 7.5 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 7.5 7.2
1981 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.6 7.9 8.3 8.5
1982 8.6 8.9 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.6 9.8 9.8 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.8
1983 10.4 10.4 10.3 10.2 10.1 10.1 9.4 9.5 9.2 8.8 8.5 8.3
1984 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.7 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.3
1985 7.3 7.2 7.2 7.3 7.2 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.0 7.0
1986 6.7 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.2 7.2 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.0 6.9 6.6
1987 6.6 6.6 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.0 5.9 6.0 5.8 5.7
1988 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.3
1989 5.4 5.2 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.4
1990 5.4 5.3 5.2 5.4 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.2 6.3
1991 6.4 6.6 6.8 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.8 6.9 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.3
1992 7.3 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.6 7.8 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.3 7.4 7.4
1993 7.3 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.8 6.7 6.8 6.6 6.5
1994 6.6 6.6 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.5
1995 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.6 5.6
1996 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.4 5.4
1997 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.0 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.7
1998 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4
1999 4.3 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0
2000 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.8 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.9
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.9
2010 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.4
2011 9.0 8.9 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.1

Average Weeks Unemployed

Series Id: LNS13008275
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Average Weeks Unemployed
Labor force status: Unemployed
Type of data: Number of weeks
Age: 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1948 8.9 8.4 8.7 8.5 9.1 8.8 8.6 8.8 8.5 9.5 7.8 8.1
1949 8.2 8.3 8.3 8.8 9.1 10.0 10.8 11.0 11.7 10.9 11.6 11.8
1950 11.3 11.8 12.4 12.6 12.7 13.1 12.5 12.2 12.2 12.3 10.7 10.7
1951 10.6 10.8 10.1 10.6 9.9 8.7 9.2 9.1 9.1 8.9 9.7 9.3
1952 9.3 8.8 8.4 9.0 7.8 7.3 7.5 7.6 8.1 9.1 9.5 8.8
1953 9.3 8.4 8.5 7.8 7.9 8.2 7.9 8.0 7.1 7.2 7.9 8.0
1954 8.7 9.5 10.6 10.9 11.6 12.3 12.5 12.8 12.9 13.3 13.2 13.4
1955 13.4 14.2 13.4 14.3 14.4 13.4 13.8 12.3 11.7 11.5 11.3 12.0
1956 11.7 12.5 11.6 11.0 10.4 10.1 10.5 12.0 11.8 11.6 10.9 11.4
1957 10.4 10.7 10.8 10.6 10.4 10.2 10.1 10.5 9.8 11.1 10.4 10.4
1958 10.5 11.0 11.2 12.1 13.1 14.4 14.6 15.7 16.5 16.5 16.4 15.7
1959 16.3 15.5 15.3 14.9 14.7 14.9 14.3 13.7 13.7 12.9 13.1 13.1
1960 13.5 13.1 13.0 12.6 11.9 11.9 12.6 12.2 12.9 13.5 13.9 12.4
1961 13.7 13.6 14.1 15.5 15.6 16.2 17.3 17.0 16.1 15.9 17.0 15.8
1962 15.3 16.0 15.0 14.9 15.5 15.1 14.6 14.5 14.1 14.1 13.3 13.6
1963 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.2 13.9 13.3 13.3
1964 13.5 13.2 13.5 12.4 13.6 13.6 14.7 13.0 12.7 12.6 14.0 12.7
1965 12.2 12.6 12.0 11.4 11.1 11.6 11.6 11.9 11.9 12.1 11.7 11.4
1966 11.9 11.2 11.1 10.8 10.2 9.7 9.7 9.8 10.1 10.3 9.7 9.5
1967 9.3 9.2 8.9 8.8 8.7 8.3 8.3 8.9 8.4 8.7 8.9 8.6
1968 9.4 8.7 8.5 8.7 8.2 7.9 8.4 8.3 8.2 8.4 8.1 8.2
1969 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.9 7.7 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.6 8.0 8.0
1970 7.9 8.0 8.3 8.2 8.6 8.6 8.9 8.8 8.9 8.7 9.3 9.8
1971 10.5 10.4 10.6 10.9 11.2 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.9 12.6 12.0 11.5
1972 12.1 12.4 12.3 12.4 12.3 12.4 11.8 11.8 12.1 11.7 11.4 11.4
1973 11.0 10.5 10.6 10.0 10.1 9.6 9.6 9.8 9.4 10.2 9.9 9.5
1974 9.5 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.7 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.9 9.6 10.1
1975 10.7 11.7 11.8 12.9 13.4 15.3 15.0 15.6 16.1 15.4 16.6 16.5
1976 16.6 16.3 16.5 15.9 15.0 16.9 15.7 15.6 15.2 15.2 15.3 15.1
1977 15.2 14.7 14.5 14.4 14.9 14.4 14.3 13.9 14.0 13.7 13.6 13.6
1978 12.9 12.5 12.4 12.3 12.1 12.1 12.0 11.4 11.4 11.7 11.1 10.6
1979 11.1 11.2 11.7 11.0 11.1 10.4 10.3 10.6 10.5 10.5 10.6 10.8
1980 10.4 10.6 11.0 11.4 10.9 11.3 11.8 12.4 12.9 13.1 13.6 13.7
1981 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.4 13.6 13.5 13.1 13.1
1982 13.4 14.1 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.7 15.4 16.2 16.6 17.2 17.1 18.1
1983 19.4 19.2 19.4 19.5 20.5 20.8 21.2 20.0 20.2 20.2 19.7 19.2
1984 20.4 19.0 19.1 18.9 18.8 18.1 18.0 17.3 17.0 16.7 17.0 16.8
1985 15.9 15.9 16.1 16.4 15.3 15.5 15.5 15.3 15.3 15.3 15.7 15.1
1986 14.8 15.2 14.6 14.7 14.7 15.2 15.2 15.5 15.4 15.2 15.0 15.0
1987 14.9 14.7 14.9 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.2 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.0 14.2
1988 14.2 14.4 13.7 13.3 13.8 13.1 13.4 13.6 13.6 13.4 12.6 12.9
1989 12.6 12.4 12.3 12.5 12.0 11.1 11.8 11.4 11.5 11.9 11.7 11.6
1990 11.8 11.6 11.7 11.8 11.7 11.6 11.9 12.2 12.4 12.2 12.4 12.5
1991 12.2 12.7 12.9 13.5 12.9 13.7 13.8 13.9 14.0 14.4 14.8 15.4
1992 16.1 16.7 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.1 18.0 18.1 18.9 17.9 19.0
1993 18.3 18.2 17.6 17.6 17.5 17.8 17.7 18.0 18.1 18.1 18.6 18.3
1994 18.6 19.0 19.0 19.0 19.5 18.8 19.0 18.8 18.7 19.3 18.0 17.8
1995 17.1 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.0 15.9 16.5 16.2 16.2 16.0 16.4 16.3
1996 16.1 16.4 17.3 17.6 17.0 17.6 16.7 17.3 16.8 16.3 15.9 15.6
1997 16.0 15.8 15.5 15.6 15.4 15.5 16.4 16.0 15.9 16.1 15.4 15.9
1998 15.6 15.4 14.5 14.7 14.7 14.1 14.1 13.7 14.4 14.1 14.5 14.0
1999 13.4 13.8 13.4 13.3 13.4 14.3 13.6 13.1 13.1 13.3 12.9 12.9
2000 13.1 12.6 12.7 12.4 12.6 12.3 13.4 12.9 12.2 12.7 12.4 12.5
2001 12.7 12.8 12.8 12.4 12.1 12.7 12.9 13.3 13.2 13.3 14.3 14.5
2002 14.7 15.0 15.4 16.3 16.8 16.9 16.9 16.5 17.6 17.8 17.6 18.5
2003 18.5 18.5 18.1 19.4 19.0 19.9 19.7 19.2 19.5 19.3 19.9 19.8
2004 19.9 20.1 19.8 19.6 19.8 20.5 18.8 18.8 19.4 19.5 19.7 19.4
2005 19.5 19.1 19.5 19.6 18.6 17.9 17.6 18.4 17.9 17.9 17.5 17.5
2006 16.9 17.8 17.1 16.7 17.1 16.6 17.1 17.1 17.1 16.3 16.2 16.1
2007 16.3 16.7 17.8 17.0 16.7 16.5 17.2 17.0 16.3 17.0 17.2 16.6
2008 17.5 16.9 16.5 16.9 16.7 17.2 17.0 17.7 18.6 19.9 18.8 19.8
2009 19.9 20.1 20.9 21.6 22.6 24.1 25.2 25.3 26.6 27.3 28.8 29.3
2010 30.5 29.8 31.7 33.1 34.3 34.8 33.9 33.5 33.4 33.9 33.9 34.2
2011 36.9 37.1 39.0 38.3 39.7 39.9 40.4 40.3 40.5

Total Unemployment Rate (U-6)

Series Id: LNS13327709
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (seas) Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached workers plus total employed part time for economic reasons, as a percent of all civilian labor force plus all marginally attached workers
Labor force status: Aggregated totals unemployed
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Percent/rates: Unemployed and mrg attached and pt for econ reas as percent of labor force plus marg attached

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1994 11.8 11.4 11.4 11.2 10.8 10.9 10.7 10.5 10.4 10.3 10.1 10.0
1995 10.2 9.9 9.9 10.0 10.0 10.1 10.1 10.0 10.1 9.9 10.0 10.0
1996 9.8 10.0 9.8 9.9 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.3 9.4 9.4 9.3 9.5
1997 9.4 9.4 9.1 9.2 8.8 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.4 8.3 8.4
1998 8.4 8.4 8.4 7.9 7.9 8.0 8.1 7.9 7.9 7.8 7.6 7.6
1999 7.7 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.3 7.4 7.2 7.1 7.1
2000 7.1 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.1 7.0 6.8 7.1 6.9
2001 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.8 8.1 8.7 9.3 9.4 9.6
2002 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.7 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8
2003 10.0 10.2 10.0 10.2 10.1 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.4 10.2 10.0 9.8
2004 9.9 9.7 10.0 9.6 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.4 9.4 9.7 9.4 9.2
2005 9.3 9.3 9.1 8.9 8.9 9.0 8.8 8.9 9.0 8.7 8.7 8.6
2006 8.4 8.4 8.2 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.0 8.2 8.1 7.9
2007 8.4 8.1 8.0 8.2 8.2 8.3 8.4 8.5 8.4 8.4 8.5 8.8
2008 9.1 8.9 9.0 9.2 9.7 10.1 10.5 10.9 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.6
2009 14.1 15.0 15.6 15.8 16.4 16.6 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.4 17.1 17.2
2010 16.5 16.8 16.8 17.0 16.5 16.5 16.5 16.7 17.1 17.0 17.0 16.7
2011 16.1 15.9 15.7 15.9 15.8 16.2 16.1 16.2 16.5

Labor Force Participation Rate

Series Id: LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title: (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status: Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
1948 58.6 58.9 58.5 59.0 58.3 59.2 59.3 58.9 58.9 58.7 58.7 59.1
1949 58.7 59.0 58.9 58.8 59.0 58.6 58.9 59.2 59.1 59.6 59.4 59.2
1950 58.9 58.9 58.8 59.2 59.1 59.4 59.1 59.5 59.2 59.4 59.3 59.2
1951 59.1 59.1 59.8 59.1 59.4 59.0 59.4 59.2 59.1 59.4 59.2 59.6
1952 59.5 59.5 58.9 58.8 59.1 59.1 58.9 58.7 59.2 58.7 59.1 59.2
1953 59.5 59.5 59.6 59.1 58.6 58.9 58.9 58.6 58.5 58.5 58.6 58.3
1954 58.6 59.3 59.1 59.2 58.9 58.5 58.4 58.7 59.2 58.8 58.6 58.1
1955 58.6 58.4 58.5 59.0 58.8 58.8 59.3 59.7 59.7 59.8 59.9 60.2
1956 60.2 59.9 59.8 59.9 60.2 60.1 60.1 60.0 60.0 59.8 59.8 59.8
1957 59.5 59.9 59.8 59.5 59.5 59.8 60.0 59.3 59.6 59.5 59.5 59.6
1958 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.6 59.8 59.5 59.6 59.8 59.7 59.6 59.2 59.2
1959 59.3 59.0 59.3 59.4 59.2 59.2 59.4 59.2 59.3 59.4 59.1 59.5
1960 59.1 59.1 58.5 59.5 59.5 59.7 59.5 59.5 59.7 59.4 59.8 59.7
1961 59.6 59.6 59.7 59.3 59.4 59.7 59.3 59.3 59.0 59.1 59.1 58.8
1962 58.8 59.0 58.9 58.7 58.9 58.8 58.5 59.0 59.0 58.7 58.5 58.4
1963 58.6 58.6 58.6 58.8 58.8 58.5 58.7 58.5 58.7 58.8 58.8 58.5
1964 58.6 58.8 58.7 59.1 59.1 58.7 58.6 58.6 58.7 58.6 58.5 58.6
1965 58.6 58.7 58.7 58.8 59.0 58.8 59.1 58.9 58.7 58.9 58.8 59.0
1966 59.0 58.8 58.8 59.0 59.0 59.1 59.1 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.6 59.5
1967 59.5 59.3 59.1 59.4 59.3 59.6 59.6 59.7 59.7 59.9 59.8 59.9
1968 59.2 59.6 59.6 59.5 59.9 60.0 59.8 59.6 59.5 59.5 59.6 59.7
1969 59.6 60.0 59.9 60.0 59.8 60.1 60.1 60.3 60.3 60.4 60.2 60.2
1970 60.4 60.4 60.6 60.6 60.3 60.2 60.4 60.3 60.2 60.4 60.4 60.4
1971 60.4 60.1 60.0 60.1 60.2 59.8 60.1 60.2 60.1 60.1 60.4 60.4
1972 60.2 60.2 60.5 60.4 60.4 60.4 60.4 60.6 60.4 60.3 60.3 60.5
1973 60.0 60.5 60.8 60.8 60.6 60.9 60.9 60.7 60.8 60.9 61.2 61.2
1974 61.3 61.4 61.3 61.1 61.2 61.2 61.4 61.2 61.4 61.3 61.3 61.2
1975 61.4 61.0 61.2 61.3 61.5 61.2 61.3 61.3 61.2 61.2 61.1 61.1
1976 61.3 61.3 61.3 61.6 61.5 61.5 61.8 61.8 61.6 61.6 61.9 61.8
1977 61.6 61.9 62.0 62.1 62.2 62.4 62.1 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.8 62.7
1978 62.8 62.7 62.8 63.0 63.1 63.3 63.2 63.2 63.3 63.3 63.5 63.6
1979 63.6 63.8 63.8 63.5 63.3 63.5 63.6 63.6 63.8 63.7 63.7 63.9
1980 64.0 64.0 63.7 63.8 63.9 63.7 63.8 63.7 63.6 63.7 63.8 63.6
1981 63.9 63.9 64.1 64.2 64.3 63.7 63.8 63.8 63.5 63.8 63.9 63.6
1982 63.7 63.8 63.8 63.9 64.2 63.9 64.0 64.1 64.1 64.1 64.2 64.1
1983 63.9 63.8 63.7 63.8 63.7 64.3 64.1 64.3 64.3 64.0 64.1 64.1
1984 63.9 64.1 64.1 64.3 64.5 64.6 64.6 64.4 64.4 64.4 64.5 64.6
1985 64.7 64.7 64.9 64.9 64.8 64.6 64.7 64.6 64.9 65.0 64.9 65.0
1986 64.9 65.0 65.1 65.1 65.2 65.4 65.4 65.3 65.4 65.4 65.4 65.3
1987 65.4 65.5 65.5 65.4 65.7 65.5 65.6 65.7 65.5 65.7 65.7 65.7
1988 65.8 65.9 65.7 65.8 65.7 65.8 65.9 66.1 65.9 66.0 66.2 66.1
1989 66.5 66.3 66.3 66.4 66.3 66.5 66.5 66.5 66.4 66.5 66.6 66.5
1990 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.6 66.4 66.5 66.5 66.4 66.4 66.4 66.4
1991 66.2 66.2 66.3 66.4 66.2 66.2 66.1 66.0 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0
1992 66.3 66.2 66.4 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.2 66.3 66.3
1993 66.2 66.2 66.2 66.1 66.4 66.5 66.4 66.4 66.2 66.3 66.3 66.4
1994 66.6 66.6 66.5 66.5 66.6 66.4 66.4 66.6 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.7
1995 66.8 66.8 66.7 66.9 66.5 66.5 66.6 66.6 66.6 66.6 66.5 66.4
1996 66.4 66.6 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.7 66.9 66.7 66.9 67.0 67.0 67.0
1997 67.0 66.9 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.2 67.2 67.1 67.1 67.2 67.2
1998 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.2 67.2 67.1 67.2
1999 67.2 67.2 67.0 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.1 67.1
2000 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.3 67.1 67.1 66.9 66.9 66.9 66.8 66.9 67.0
2001 67.2 67.1 67.2 66.9 66.7 66.7 66.8 66.5 66.8 66.7 66.7 66.7
2002 66.5 66.8 66.6 66.7 66.7 66.6 66.5 66.6 66.7 66.6 66.4 66.3
2003 66.4 66.4 66.3 66.4 66.4 66.5 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 65.9
2004 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.9 66.0 66.1 66.1 66.0 65.8 65.9 66.0 65.9
2005 65.8 65.9 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.0
2006 66.0 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.1 66.2 66.3 66.4
2007 66.4 66.3 66.2 65.9 66.0 66.0 66.0 65.8 66.0 65.8 66.0 66.0
2008 66.2 66.0 66.1 65.9 66.1 66.1 66.0 66.1 66.0 66.0 65.8 65.8
2009 65.7 65.7 65.6 65.6 65.7 65.7 65.5 65.4 65.1 65.1 65.0 64.7
2010 64.8 64.8 64.9 65.1 64.9 64.7 64.6 64.7 64.7 64.5 64.5 64.3
2011 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.1 63.9 64.0 64.2

Employment Situation Summary

Transmission of material in this release is embargoed                   USDL-11-1441
until 8:30 a.m. (EDT) Friday, October 7, 2011

Technical information:
 Household data:       (202) 691-6378  *  cpsinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/cps
 Establishment data:   (202) 691-6555  *  cesinfo@bls.gov  *  www.bls.gov/ces

Media contact:         (202) 691-5902  *  PressOffice@bls.gov

                       THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION -- SEPTEMBER 2011

Nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in September, and the unemployment
rate held at 9.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The
increase in employment partially reflected the return to payrolls of about 45,000
telecommunications workers who had been on strike in August. In September, job gains
occurred in professional and business services, health care, and construction.
Government employment continued to trend down.

Household Survey Data

The number of unemployed persons, at 14.0 million, was essentially unchanged in
September, and the unemployment rate was 9.1 percent. Since April, the rate has held
in a narrow range from 9.0 to 9.2 percent. (See table A-1.)

Among the major worker groups, the unemployment rates for adult men (8.8 percent),
adult women (8.1 percent), teenagers (24.6 percent), whites (8.0 percent), blacks
(16.0 percent), and Hispanics (11.3 percent) showed little or no change in September.
The jobless rate for Asians was 7.8 percent, not seasonally adjusted. (See tables A-1,
A-2, and A-3.)

The number of long-term unemployed (those jobless for 27 weeks and over) was 6.2
million in September. These individuals accounted for 44.6 percent of the unemployed.
(See table A-12.)

Both the labor force and employment increased in September. However, the civilian
labor force participation rate, at 64.2 percent, and the employment-population ratio,
at 58.3 percent, were little changed. (See table A-1.)

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred to
as involuntary part-time workers) rose to 9.3 million in September. These individuals
were working part time because their hours had been cut back or because they were
unable to find a full-time job. (See table A-8.)

In September, about 2.5 million persons were marginally attached to the labor force,
about the same as a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.) These
individuals were not in the labor force, wanted and were available for work, and had
looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not counted as unemployed
because they had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. (See table
A-16.)

Among the marginally attached, there were 1.0 million discouraged workers in September,
down by 172,000 from a year earlier. (The data are not seasonally adjusted.)
Discouraged workers are persons not currently looking for work because they believe
no jobs are available for them. The remaining 1.5 million persons marginally attached
to the labor force in September had not searched for work in the 4 weeks preceding the
survey for reasons such as school attendance or family responsibilities. (See table
A-16.)

Establishment Survey Data

Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 103,000 in September. Since April, payroll
employment has increased by an average of 72,000 per month, compared with an average
of 161,000 for the prior 7 months. In September, job gains occurred in professional
and business services, health care, and construction. Government employment continued
to trend down. (See table B-1.)

Employment in professional and business services increased by 48,000 over the month and
has grown by 897,000 since a recent low in September 2009. Employment in temporary help
services edged up in September; this industry has added 53,000 jobs over the past 3
months. In September, employment growth continued in computer systems design and in
management and technical consulting services.

Health care employment continued to expand in September, with an increase of 44,000.
Within the industry, job gains occurred in ambulatory health care services (+26,000)
and in hospitals (+13,000).

Construction employment increased by 26,000 over the month, after showing little
movement since February. The over-the-month gain was due to employment increases in the
nonresidential construction industries, which includes heavy and civil construction.
Mining employment continued to trend up in September.

Employment in information was up by 34,000 over the month due to the return of about
45,000 telecommunications workers to payrolls after an August strike.

Manufacturing employment changed little in September (-13,000) and has been essentially
flat for the past 2 months.

Within retail trade, employment declined in electronic and appliance stores (-9,000)
in September. Employment in wholesale trade, transportation and warehousing, financial
activities, and leisure and hospitality changed little.

Government employment continued to trend down over the month (-34,000). The U.S.
Postal Service continued to lose jobs (-5,000). Local government employment declined
by 35,000 and has fallen by 535,000 since September 2008.

The average workweek for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1
hour over the month to 34.3 hours following a decrease of 0.1 hour in August. The
manufacturing workweek edged down by 0.1 hour in September to 40.2 hours. Factory
overtime increased by 0.1 hour to 3.2 hours. The average workweek for production and
nonsupervisory employees on private nonfarm payrolls edged up by 0.1 hour to 33.6 hours
in September. (See tables B-2 and B-7.)

In September, average hourly earnings for all employees on private nonfarm payrolls
increased by 4 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $23.12. This increase followed a decline of
4 cents in August. Over the past 12 months, average hourly earnings have increased by
1.9 percent. In September, average hourly earnings of private-sector production and
nonsupervisory employees increased by 3 cents, or 0.2 percent, to $19.52. (See tables
B-3 and B-8.)

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for July was revised from +85,000 to
+127,000, and the change for August was revised from 0 to +57,000.

_____________
The Employment Situation for October is scheduled to be released on Friday, November 4,
2011, at 8:30 a.m. (EDT).

Background Articles and Videos

Unemployment Rate Primer

Economist John Williams on Real Unemployment Rate

Celente: American unemployment rates really around 20%

Obama to Axe Small Business Programs: Lloyd Chapman Reports

Elementary Economics: Is Obama smarter than a 2nd Grader?

Read Full Post | Make a Comment ( None so far )

Pronk Pops Show 39, August 3, 2011: Segment 2: It’s Time For A Permanent, Prevasive and Predictable Stimulus Package–The FairTax–Launching A Peace and Prosperity Economy–Videos

Posted on August 2, 2011. Filed under: American History, Budgetary Policy, Business, Economics, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, Government, Government Spending, History, Investments, Philosophy, Politics, Regulation, Tax Policy, Videos, War, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , , , , , |

Pronk Pops Show 39:August 3, 2011

Pronk Pops Show 38:July 27, 2011

Pronk Pops Show 37:July 20, 2011

Pronk Pops Show 36:July 13, 2011

Pronk Pops Show 35:July 6, 2011

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 38--39

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 34-37

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 30-33

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 27-29

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 22 (Part 2)-26

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 16-22 (Part 1)

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 10-15

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 1-9

Segment 2: It’s Time For A Permanent, Prevasive and Predictable Stimulus Package–The FairTax–Launching A Peace and Prosperity Economy–Videos

Segment 1: It’s Time For A Permanent, Prevasive and Predictable Stimulus Package–The FairTax–Launching A Peace and Prosperity Economy–Videos

The Problem

The Warfare and Welfare Economy With

Temporary,Targeted and Timely Stimulus Packages

The Road Ahead: Unemployment, Poverty and the Recession

The predictions in the above videos were off by two years.

The predictions for 2010 are now the predictions of many for 2012.

Peter Schiff on US Debt Crisis – ‘Massive Inflation’

The Great Stimulus Debate: What You Need To Know About How Will The Stimulus Will Affect Our Economy

“…A fact-based look at how the Economic Stimulus will affect our economy. Because this stimulus was poorly designed, it will not be timely enough to help, it targets the wrong sectors, and it will be anything but temporary. It will lead to higher debts and lower long-term GDP, which hurts you, your children and rewards political special interests. It is time to hold politicians accountable for creating this mess and failing to fix it. …”

Massive unemployment could lead to riots says Dr. Brzezinski

END FED: Keiser Explains How Fed-Banks Create Revolutions & Genocide; Speculation, Food-Oil Prices

Updated 01.12.11 – The Decline: The Geography of a Recession by LaToya Egwuekwe (OFFICIAL)

According to the U.S. Department of Labor’s Bureau of Labor Statistics, there are nearly 31 million people currently unemployed — that’s including those involuntarily working part time and those who want a job, but have given up on trying to find one. In the face of the worst economic upheaval since the Great Depression, millions of Americans are hurting. “The Decline: The Geography of a Recession,” as created by labor writer LaToya Egwuekwe, serves as a vivid representation of just how much. Watch the deteriorating transformation of the U.S. economy from January 2007 — approximately one year before the start of the recession — to the most recent unemployment data available today. Original link: http://www.latoyaegwuekwe.com/geographyofareces­sion.html. For more information, email latoya.egwuekwe@yahoo.com

Gerald Celente on The Peter Schiff Show 14 Apr 2011

Trend Prophet Forecasts Food Riots For US by 2012

Our Troubling Tax System

The Solution

Launch The Peace and Prosperity Economy

With A Premanent, Pervasive and Predictable Stimulus Package

The FairTax: It’s Time

What is the FairTax legislation?

Mike Huckabee – What is the “Fair Tax?”

Lugar Cosponsors the FairTax

Marco Rubio on the FairTax

HERMAN CAIN ON “FAIR TAX” 110611

Herman Cain Discusses Fair Tax with Neil Cavuto

Ron Paul On Taxes

Ron Paul on Taxes

Ron Paul – THE FAIRTAX REVOLUTION

Bachmann Reacts to Obama’s Call to Raise Taxes

Tax Rates are High Enough Already

What Are Taxes For? PJTV Goes to The Hill to Get Answers From Bachmann, Price, Jordan & Others

The Fair Tax

The Fair Tax Explained

Fair Tax… explained by a 17 year old

Support the FairTax

My FAIRTAX Story_Paul Wizikowski

Taylor discusses the economy with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV

“…John Taylor, the George P. Shultz Senior Fellow in Economics at the Hoover Institution and the Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics at Stanford University, discusses economics, finance, QE2, taxes, and investments with Tom Keene on Bloomberg TV. …”

No, A Bigger Stimulus Would Not Have Worked Either

By JOHN B. TAYLOR

“…For these reasons I argued in the November 2008 article which Krugman cites that a better fiscal policy would be to rely on the automatic stabilizers and enact more permanent reductions in tax rates (or at least pledge not to increase tax rates in a recession).

As early as the summer of 2009 it was clear that ARRA was not working as intended, as John Cogan, Volker Wieland and I reported. Research since then has uncovered the reasons why. One reason is that very large stimulus grants to the states did not go to infrastructure spending as intended, and that’s what Ned Gramlich found out about Keynesian stimulus packages thirty years ago.

Why Permanent Tax Cuts Are the Best Stimulus

Short-term fiscal policies fail to promote long-term growth.

By JOHN B. TAYLOR

“…What are the implications for a second stimulus early next year? The mantra often heard during debates about the first stimulus was that it should be temporary, targeted and timely. Clearly, that mantra must be replaced. In testimony before the Senate Budget Committee on Nov. 19, I recommended alternative principles: permanent, pervasive and predictable.

– Permanent. The most obvious lesson learned from the first stimulus is that temporary is not a principle to follow if you want to get the economy moving again. Rather than one- or two-year packages, we should be looking for permanent fiscal changes that turn the economy around in a lasting way.

– Pervasive. One argument in favor of “targeting” the first stimulus package was that, by focusing on people who might consume more, the impact would be larger. But the stimulus was ineffective with such targeting. Moreover, targeting implied that increased tax rates, as currently scheduled, will not be a drag on the economy as long as increased payments to the targeted groups are larger than the higher taxes paid by others. But increasing tax rates on businesses or on investments in the current weak economy would increase unemployment and further weaken the economy. Better to seek an across-the-board approach where both employers and employees benefit.

– Predictable. While timeliness is an admirable attribute, it is only one property of good fiscal policy. More important is that policy should be clear and understandable — that is, predictable — so that individuals and firms know what to expect. …”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122757149157954723.html

Vote only for candidates for public office that support the FairTax.

Vote out of office those polticians who continue to support Federal income and payroll taxes.

No exceptions.

Demand that the FairTax be implemented and go into operation starting January 2012.

Only vote for that presidential candidate that clearly supports the FairTax and repeal of the tewnty-sixth amendment that gave us the income tax.

Background Articles and Videos

An Argument for the Fair Tax

Gerald Celente- Jeff Rense Radio – 14 July 2011

Roskam to Fox News: Our National Debt is Dragging Down the Economy

Economy: The Worst Yet to Come?

The Secret of Oz (by Mr Bill Still)

 

Get Ready for a 70% Marginal Tax Rate

Some argue the U.S. economy can bear higher pre-Reagan tax rates. But those rates applied to a much smaller fraction of taxpayers than what we’re headed for without spending cuts.

By MICHAEL J. BOSKIN

“…It would be a huge mistake to imagine that the cumulative, cascading burden of many tax rates on the same income will leave the middle class untouched. Take a teacher in California earning $60,000. A current federal rate of 25%, a 9.5% California rate, and 15.3% payroll tax yield a combined income tax rate of 45%. The income tax increases to cover the CBO’s projected federal deficit in 2016 raises that to 52%. Covering future Social Security and Medicare deficits brings the combined marginal tax rate on that middle-income taxpayer to an astounding 71%. That teacher working a summer job would keep just 29% of her wages. At the margin, virtually everyone would be working primarily for the government, reduced to a minority partner in their own labor.

Nobody—rich, middle-income or poor—can afford to have the economy so burdened. Higher tax rates are the major reason why European per-capita income, according to the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, is about 30% lower than in the United States—a permanent difference many times the temporary decline in the recent recession and anemic recovery.

Some argue the U.S. economy can easily bear higher pre-Reagan tax rates. They point to the 1930s-1950s, when top marginal rates were between 79% and 94%, or the Carter-era 1970s, when the top rate was about 70%. But those rates applied to a much smaller fraction of taxpayers and kicked in at much higher income levels relative to today.

There were also greater opportunities for sheltering income from the income tax. The lower marginal tax rates in the 1980s led to the best quarter-century of economic performance in American history. Large increases in tax rates are a recipe for economic stagnation, socioeconomic ossification, and the loss of American global competitiveness and leadership.

There is only one solution to this growth-destroying, confiscatory tax-rate future: Control spending growth, especially of entitlements. Meaningful tax reform—not with higher rates as Mr. Obama proposes, but with lower rates on a broader base of economic activity and people—can be an especially effective complement to spending control. But without increased spending discipline, even the best tax reforms are doomed to be undone.

Mr. Boskin is a professor of economics at Stanford University and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution. He chaired the Council of Economic Advisers under President George H.W. Bush.”

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702304911104576443893352153776.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

.

3/09/11: Sen. Rand Paul on balancing the budget

03/17/11: Sen. Rand Paul Introduces Five-Year Balanced Budget Plan

S-1 FY2012 Senator Rand Paul

(Nominal Dollars in Billions)

Fiscal Year Outlays Revenues DeficitsSurplus Debt Held By Public
2011 3,708 2,228 -1,480 10,430
2012 3,100 2,547 -553 11,051
2013 3,152 2,755 -397 11,532
2014 3,227 3,088 -139 11,748
2015 3,360 3,244 -116 11,942
2016 3,430 3,349 19 11,997
2012-2016 16,269 15,083 -1,188 n.a.

http://campaignforliberty.com/materials/RandBudget.pdf

4/14/11: Sen. Rand Paul Speaks Out Against the Continuing Resolution

Senator Lee explains the enforceability of a balanced budget amendment

Senator Pat Toomey Explains That Failing To Raise Debt Limit Doesn’t Cause Default

Neither the Republican Party nor Democratic Party Fiscal Year 2012 budget proposals are the road to peace and prosperity but a Tea Party budget with balanced budgets most definitely is:

Which Budgets Are Balanced And Living Within The Means of The American People?

4/5/11 Republican Leadership Press Conference

Republican Party Budget Proposals

S-1 FY2012 Chairman’s Markup

(Nominal Dollars in Billions)

Fiscal Year Outlays Revenues Deficits Debt Held By Public
2011 3,618 2,230 -1,388 10,351
2012 3,529 2,533 -995 11,418
2013 3,559 2,860 -699 12,217
2014 3,586 3,094 -492 12,801
2015 3,671 3,237 -434 13,326
2016 3,858 3,377 -481 13,886
2017 3,998 3,589 -408 14,363
2018 4,123 3,745 -379 14,800
2019 4,352 3,939 -414 15,254
2020 4,544 4,142 -402 15,681
2021 4,739 4,354 -385 16,071
2012-2021 39,958 34,870 -5,088 n.a.

http://budget.house.gov/UploadedFiles/PathToProsperityFY2012.pdf

Sen. Toomey Unveils his FY 2012 Budget

Senator Pat Toomey Talks with Michael Medved about his Budget

S-1 FY2012 Senator Pat Toomey(Nominal Dollars in Billions)
Fiscal Year Outlays Revenues DeficitsSurplus Debt Held By Public
2011 3,625 2,230 -1,351 10,351
2012 3,477 2,538 -919 11,418
2013 3,485 2,964 -521 12,217
2014 3,509 3,216 -291 12,801
2015 3,623 3,391 -233 13,326
2016 3,765 3,524 -241 13,886
2017 3,853 3,736 -117 14,363
2018 3,955 3,916 -39 14,800
2019 4,140 4,108 -32 15,254
2020 4,302 4,325 23 15,681
2021 4,493 4,566 73 16,071
2012-2021 38,602 36,304 -2298 n.a.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/55116239/Restoring-Balance-Final

Democratic Party Budget Proposals

S-1 FY2012 President’s Budget

(Nominal Dollars in Billions)

Fiscal Year Outlays Revenues Deficits Debt Held By Public
2011 3,819 2,174 -1,645 10,856
2012 3,729 2,627 -1,101 11,881
2013 3,771 3,003 -768 12,784
2014 3,977 3,333 -646 13,562
2015 4,190 3,583 -607 14,301
2016 4,468 3,819 -649 15,064
2017 4,669 4,042 -627 15,795
2018 4,876 4,257 -619 16,513
2019 5,154 4,473 -681 17,284
2020 5,442 4,686 -735 18,103
2021 5,697 4,923 -774 18,967
2012-2021 45,952 38,747 -7,205 n.a.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/omb/budget/fy2012/assets/tables.pdf

Tea Party Budget Proposals

S-1 FY2012 Tea Party’s Balanced/Surplus Budget(Nominal Dollars in Billions)
Fiscal Year Outlays Revenues Surpluses Debt Held By Public
2012 2,500 2,500 0 10,900
2013 2,800 2,800 0 10,900
2014 3,000 3,000 0 10,900
2015 3,200 3,200 0 10,900
2016 3,300 3,300 0 10,900
2017 3,400 3,500 100 10,800
2018 3,500 3,700 200 10,600
2019 3,600 3,900 300 10,300
2020 3,700 4,000 300 10,000
2021 3,800 4,300 500 9,500
2012-2021 32,800 34,200 1,400 n.a.

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Pronk Pops Show 39, August 3, 2011: Segment 1: The Second Obama Recession Starts Or The Great Obama Depression Continues–The Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product Declines For Four Consecutive Quarters–The Economy Has Peaked And Entered A Period Of Stagflation–Rising Prices, Unemployment And Obama Misery Index!–Ron Paul To The Rescue?–Videos

Posted on August 2, 2011. Filed under: American History, Budgetary Policy, Economics, Federal Government, Fiscal Policy, Government, Government Spending, History, Housing, Investments, Monetary Policy, Philosophy, Politics, Regulation, Resources, Tax Policy, Videos, War, Wisdom | Tags: , , , , |

Pronk Pops Show 39:August 3, 2011

Pronk Pops Show 38:July 27, 2011

Pronk Pops Show 37:July 20, 2011

Pronk Pops Show 36:July 13, 2011

Pronk Pops Show 35:July 6, 2011

Listen To Pronk Pops Podcast or Download Shows 38-39

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Segment 1: The Second Obama Recession Starts Or The Great Obama Depression Continues–The Growth Rate of Gross Domestic Product Declines For Four Consecutive Quarters–The Economy Has Peaked And Entered A Period Of Stagflation–Rising Prices, Unemployment And Obama Misery Index!–Ron Paul To The Rescue?–Videos

Silvia Says GDP `Worst of All Worlds’ for Investors, Fed

Englund Cites Lower Consumption Figures in U.S. GDP Data

Morning Market Alert for July 29, 2011

July 29th 2011 CNBC Stock Market Squawk Box (Q2 GDP)

Stagflation by Ben Stein

Current Numbers:
  • 2nd quarter 2011: 1.3 percent
  • 1st quarter 2011: 0.4 percent
Quarterly data: Real gross domestic product — the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States — increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2011, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the “advance” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent.

Government Debt and You

Ron Paul Says `No Doubt’ Debt Limit Will Be Raised

Ron Paul Speech on Debt Ceiling July 19 2011

Ron Paul 2012: Debt Ceiling, Default, & Inflation

Ron Paul Bring the Troops Home & Balance the Budget

Ron Paul’s Debt Solution: Bring the Troops Home, Fire Useless Bureaucrats, Phase Out Entitlements

The first quarter 2011 growth rate of Gross Domestic Product of 1.9% was revised downward to .4%.

The second quarter 2011 growth rate of Gross Domestic Product was 1.3%.

This is the fourth consecutive decline the quarterly growth rates of the Gross Domestic Product.

When the revised second quarter 2011 growth rate of Gross Domestic Product is published in late October 2011, the rate of growth of Gross Domestic Product could be negative.

The Great Obama Recession started June 2010 when the economy peaked.

This would mean that the economic recovery or expansion that started in July 2009 and ended in June 2010 was one of the shortest recovery or expansion periods in U.S. economic history with a duration of about one year.

Since the growth in Gross Domestic Product has fallen and the unemployment rates and consumer prices are rising, the U.S. economy is clearly in a period of stagflation–a period of low economic growth and high inflation.

Unemployment rates are heading for an estimated unemployment rate of about 10.2% in the first quarter of 2012.

Inflation rate depending upon how the rate is measured is heading for a range of between 6% to 10% in the first quarter of 2012.

The National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee chaired by Robert R. Hall needs to meet to officially call the start of a recession where the NBER committee defines a recession and expansion as follows:

A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year. Similarly, during an expansion, economic activity rises substantially, spreads across the economy, and usually lasts for several years.

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

The Business Cycle Dating Committee dated the last recession from December 2007 when the economy reached a peak through June 2009 when the economy hit bottom or a trough :

“…The following graph shows the two main indicators the committee considers in deciding on the dates of turning points in economic activity, real GDP and payroll employment: …”

http://www.nber.org/programs/efg/efg.html

Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

Series Id: CES0000000001
Seasonally Adjusted
Super Sector: Total nonfarm
Industry: Total nonfarm
NAICS Code:
Data Type: ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2007 137094 137182 137400 137479 137620 137687 137638 137612 137681 137772 137899 137983
2008 137996 137913 137841 137656 137423 137245 137014 136747 136313 135804 135002 134383
2009 133563 132837 132041 131381 130995 130493 130193 129962 129726 129505 129450 129320
2010 129281 129246 129438 129715 130173 129981 129932 129873 129844 130015 130108 130260
2011 130328 130563 130757 130974 130999(P) 131017(P)

Table 1.1.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product

[Percent] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Last Revised on: July 29, 2011 – Next Release Date August 26, 2011

Line 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II III IV I II
1 Gross domestic product 0.5 3.6 3.0 1.7 -1.8 1.3 -3.7 -8.9 -6.7 -0.7 1.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 2.5 2.3 0.4 1.3
2 Personal consumption expenditures 2.2 1.5 1.8 1.2 -1.0 -0.1 -3.8 -5.1 -1.5 -1.9 2.3 0.4 2.7 2.9 2.6 3.6 2.1 0.1
3 Goods 2.6 1.9 3.0 1.0 -5.6 0.5 -7.7 -12.6 0.1 -2.3 7.6 0.5 6.4 3.8 4.8 8.3 4.7 -1.3
4 Durable goods 5.1 5.7 5.2 2.3 -9.6 -2.9 -12.3 -25.4 2.4 -4.0 20.3 -4.8 9.9 7.8 8.8 17.2 11.7 -4.4
5 Nondurable goods 1.3 -0.1 1.9 0.4 -3.3 2.3 -5.4 -5.8 -1.0 -1.5 2.0 3.1 4.8 1.9 3.0 4.3 1.6 0.1
6 Services 2.0 1.4 1.1 1.3 1.5 -0.5 -1.7 -1.2 -2.3 -1.7 -0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.8
7 Gross private domestic investment -3.9 9.2 -3.0 -9.3 -12.2 -6.0 -16.5 -33.9 -46.7 -22.8 2.9 36.8 31.5 26.4 9.2 -7.1 3.8 7.1
8 Fixed investment -1.2 3.5 -1.4 -4.9 -8.3 -5.2 -12.3 -25.2 -32.2 -17.0 0.7 -3.8 1.2 19.5 2.3 7.5 1.2 5.9
9 Nonresidential 6.5 10.8 9.1 5.4 -0.8 -2.3 -9.9 -22.9 -31.3 -15.8 -3.3 -3.7 6.0 18.6 11.3 8.7 2.1 6.3
10 Structures 10.7 28.0 24.3 7.4 0.8 9.4 -3.7 -10.2 -32.1 -33.3 -20.1 -30.8 -24.7 7.5 4.2 10.5 -14.3 8.1
11 Equipment and software 4.7 3.9 2.5 4.4 -1.7 -7.9 -13.1 -29.3 -30.8 -4.2 6.4 11.7 21.7 23.2 14.1 8.1 8.7 5.7
12 Residential -16.4 -12.0 -24.1 -29.3 -28.5 -14.5 -20.0 -33.2 -35.4 -21.3 17.8 -3.8 -15.3 22.8 -27.7 2.5 -2.4 3.8
13 Change in private inventories
14 Net exports of goods and services
15 Exports 6.4 6.8 15.7 11.6 5.5 12.7 -3.5 -21.4 -29.0 -0.5 13.9 23.5 7.2 10.0 10.0 7.8 7.9 6.0
16 Goods 12.8 7.6 12.7 9.9 9.3 14.1 -2.4 -27.4 -34.9 -2.9 21.3 28.4 12.1 11.8 8.9 9.2 10.6 6.8
17 Services -6.9 4.9 23.0 15.7 -2.7 9.5 -6.2 -5.6 -14.7 4.7 0.1 13.7 -2.7 6.1 12.6 4.7 1.7 4.0
18 Imports 5.9 2.0 1.0 -5.2 1.4 -2.5 -6.6 -14.9 -34.0 -15.0 16.3 17.4 12.5 21.6 12.3 -2.3 8.3 1.3
19 Goods 8.4 1.7 0.3 -5.5 -0.6 -2.2 -9.1 -18.5 -37.1 -17.9 19.6 21.8 14.4 26.0 12.4 -0.5 9.5 1.5
20 Services -6.3 3.6 4.4 -4.0 13.0 -4.2 8.2 5.6 -19.3 -2.5 4.2 0.4 4.6 3.3 11.6 -10.4 2.2 0.2
21 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment -0.5 3.4 3.5 1.2 3.1 1.7 4.3 1.6 -1.7 5.9 1.3 -0.9 -1.2 3.7 1.0 -2.8 -5.9 -1.1
22 Federal -4.8 7.1 9.6 1.1 9.7 4.9 11.7 9.1 -3.3 14.4 5.9 2.2 2.8 8.8 3.2 -3.0 -9.4 2.2
23 National defense -7.2 8.3 10.2 0.0 8.2 5.4 17.6 8.3 -7.5 16.3 8.2 -1.3 0.5 6.0 5.7 -5.9 -12.6 7.3
24 Nondefense 0.5 4.7 8.2 3.4 13.0 3.9 -0.1 10.9 6.5 10.4 1.0 9.9 7.8 14.7 -1.8 3.1 -2.7 -7.3
25 State and local 2.1 1.3 0.2 1.3 -0.6 -0.1 0.1 -2.8 -0.8 0.9 -1.5 -2.9 -3.9 0.4 -0.5 -2.7 -3.4 -3.4
Series Id: LNS14000000 Seasonally Adjusted Series title: (Seas) Unemployment Rate
Labor force status: Unemployment rate
Type of data: Percent or rate
Age: 16 years and over
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual
2001 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.5 5.7
2002 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.7 5.9 6.0
2003 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.2 6.1 6.1 6.0 5.8 5.7
2004 5.7 5.6 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.6 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.4 5.4
2005 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.0 5.0 4.9 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.9
2006 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4
2007 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 5.0
2008 5.0 4.8 5.1 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.8 6.1 6.2 6.6 6.8 7.3
2009 7.8 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.5 9.7 9.8 10.1 9.9 9.9
2010 9.7 9.7 9.7 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9.6 9.6 9.7 9.8 9.4
2011 9.0 8.9 8.8 9.0 9.1 9.2

Nonfarm employment is leveling off at 131 million and the growth in real GDP has reached a peak of 3.8% in the second quarter of 2010 and is falling.

While the National Bureau of Economic Research Business Cycle Dating Committee might wait for another quarter of real GDP and employment data, they will be forced to conclude that the U.S. economy is in another recession by November 1 at the very latest.

Once this happens, President Obama’s chances for a second term will fall dramatically.

By election day November 2012 I fully expect the unemployment rate will be at or above 9% and inflation exceeding 9% for an estimated Obama Misery Index of about 18%. The Misery Index is simply the sum of the inflation and unemployment rates and is often used as a predictor of who will win a Presidential election.

The American people will vote their wallets with the most important issues being jobs, the economy and rising inflation.

Whoever the Republicans decide to be their candidate for the office of President of the United States will be elected President and the Republican Party will regain their majority in the Senate and increase their majority is the House of Representatives.

The only Republican candidate who fully understands the economic crisis the United States is in and what needs to be done is Ron Paul.

The American people trust Ron Paul based on his principled and consistent twenty year voting record in Congress against massive Government spending and debt and against government intervention into the economy at home and against government intervention abroad.

Should Ron Paul be nominated by the Republican Party he will be the next President of the United States.

Both the Democratic and Republican Party establishments in Washington D.C. , the so-called “ruling class”, will oppose him.

Ron Paul wants to limit the size and scope of the Federal Government.

This would mean cuts in warfare and welfare spending and closing permanently eight Federal Departments, the Internal Revenue Service and Federal Reserve.

Only a grassroots movement of the American people will result in Ron Paul being nominated and elected President of the United States.

When the Obama Misery Index (OMI) is over 15% and the economy in the middle of the Great Obama Depression, Ron Paul may just get the support and votes of the American people.

The “Obama Misery Index”

Romney Wants to Hang Misery Index Around Obama’s Neck

Index = Unemployment rate + Inflation rate
Rank↓ President↓ Time Period↓ Average↓ Low High Start↓ End↓ Change↓
4 Harry Truman 1948–1952 7.88 Dec 1952 = 3.45 Jan 1948 = 13.63 13.63 3.45 -10.18
1 Dwight D. Eisenhower 1953–1960 6.26 Jul 1953 = 2.97 Apr 1958 = 10.98 3.28 7.96 +4.68
3 John F. Kennedy 1961–1962 7.14 Jul 1962 = 6.40 Jul 1961 = 8.38 8.31 6.82 -1.49
2 Lyndon B. Johnson 1963–1968 6.77 Nov 1965 = 5.70 Jul 1968 = 8.19 7.02 8.12 +1.10
8 Richard Nixon 1969–1973 10.57 Jan 1969 = 7.80 Jul 1974 = 17.01 7.80 17.01 +9.21
10 Gerald Ford 1974–1976 16.00 Dec 1976 = 12.66 Jan 1975 = 19.90 16.36 12.66 -3.70
11 Jimmy Carter 1977–1980 16.26 Apr 1978 = 12.60 Jun 1980 = 21.98 12.72 19.72 +7.00
9 Ronald Reagan 1981–1988 12.19 Dec 1986 = 7.70 Jan 1981 = 19.33 19.33 9.72 -9.61
7 George H. W. Bush 1989–1992 10.68 Sep 1989 = 9.64 Nov 1990 = 12.47 10.07 10.30 +0.23
6 Bill Clinton 1993–2000 7.80 Apr 1998 = 5.74 Jan 1993 = 10.56 10.56 7.29 -3.27
5 George W. Bush 2001–2008 8.11 Oct 2006 = 5.71 Aug 2008 = 11.47 7.93 7.49 -0.44
N/A Barack Obama 2009–Present
Incomplete data
Data updated through June 2011
10.45 July 2009 = 7.30
index offset by negative inflation (-2.10)
June 2011 = 12.76 7.73 12.76 +4.93

Weak growth raises concerns on economy

“…The U.S. economycame perilously close to flat-lining in the first quarter and grew at a meager 1.3 percent annual rate in the April-June period as consumer spending barely rose.

The Commerce Department data on Friday also showed the current lull in the economy began earlier than had been thought, with the growth losing steam late last year.

That could raise questions on the long held view by both Federal Reserve officials and independent economists that the slowdown in growth as the year started was largely the result of transitory factors.

Growth in gross domestic product — a measure of all goods and services produced within U.S. borders – rose at a 1.3 percent annual rate. First-quarter output was sharply revised down to a 0.4 percent pace from a 1.9 percent increase.

Economists had expected the economy to expand at a 1.8 percent rate in the second quarter. Fourth-quarter growth was revised to a 2.3 percent rate from 3.1 percent.

“The second quarter disappointed, but the first-quarter downward revision is more disturbing. It advances the pangs of concern. The debt ceiling nonsense is not going to help us. We’re already in an economy that is subpar,” said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James in St. Petersburg, Florida. …”

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/07/29/us-usa-economy-idUSTRE7662I420110729

Rodney Dangerfield’s First Economics Class

Background Articles and Videos

Americans cut spending for first time in 20 months

By MARTIN CRUTSINGER – AP Economics Writer

“…Americans cut back on their spending in June for the first time in nearly two years and their incomes grew by the smallest amount in nine months, a troubling sign for an economy that is barely growing.

Consumer spending dropped 0.2 percent in June, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Some of the decline was caused by declining food and energy prices, which had spiked in recent months. When excluding spending on those items, consumer spending was flat.

Incomes rose 0.1 percent, the weakest growth since September. Many people are responding by saving more. The personal savings rate rose to 5.4 percent of after-tax incomes, the highest level since August 2010.

The data confirmed last week’s report that showed the U.S. economy expanded at a tepid annual rate of 1.3 percent in the spring after only 0.4 percent growth in the first three months of the year. But it also highlighted that consumer spending weakened during the April-June quarter, which could mean the sluggish economy is worsening. …”

http://news.yahoo.com/americans-cut-spending-first-time-20-months-123819626.html

National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2011 (Advance Estimate)
Revised Estimates: 2003 through First Quarter 2011
Real gross domestic product -- the output of goods and services produced by labor and property located in the United States -- increased at an annual rate of 1.3 percent in the second quarter of 2011, (that is, from the first quarter to the second quarter), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 0.4 percent. The Bureau emphasized that the second-quarter advance estimate released today is based on source data that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency (see the box on page 3). The "second" estimate for the second quarter, based on more complete data, will be released on August 26, 2011. The estimates released today reflect the annual revision of the national income and product accounts (NIPAs). In addition to the regular revision of estimates for the most recent 3 years and the first quarter of 2011, current-dollar GDP and some components are revised back to the first quarter of 2003. In cases for which the estimates for the reference year (2005) are revised, this results in revisions to the levels of the related index numbers and chained-dollar estimates for the entire historical period; revisions to percent changes before the first quarter of 2003 are small. Annual revisions, which are usually released in July, incorporate source data that are more complete, more detailed, and otherwise more reliable than those previously available. This release includes the revised quarterly estimates of GDP, corporate profits, and personal income and provides an overview of the results of the revision. The August 2011 Survey of Current Business will contain NIPA tables and an article describing the revisions. The complete set of revised estimates will be available on BEA’s Web site at www.bea.gov. ________________ FOOTNOTE.--Quarterly estimates are expressed at seasonally adjusted annual rates, unless otherwise specified. Quarter-to-quarter dollar changes are differences between these published estimates. Percent changes are calculated from unrounded data and are annualized. “Real” estimates are in chained (2005) dollars. Price indexes are chain-type measures. This news release is available on BEA’s Web site along with the Technical Note and Highlightsrelated to this release. ________________ The increase in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected positive contributions from exports, nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and federal government spending that were partly offset by a negative contribution from state and local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased. The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected a deceleration in imports, an upturn in federal government spending, and an acceleration in nonresidential fixed investment that were partly offset by a sharp deceleration in personal consumption expenditures. Final sales of computers added 0.15 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.08 percentage point to the first-quarter change. Motor vehicle output subtracted 0.12 percentage point from the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 1.08 percentage points to the first-quarter change. The price index for gross domestic purchases, which measures prices paid by U.S. residents, increased 3.2 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 4.0 percent in the first. Excluding food and energy prices, the price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.6 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.4 percent in the first. Real personal consumption expenditures increased 0.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in the first. Durable goods decreased 4.4 percent, in contrast to an increase of 11.7 percent. Nondurable goods increased 0.1 percent, compared with an increase of 1.6 percent. Services increased 0.8 percent, the same increase as in the first. Real nonresidential fixed investment increased 6.3 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent in the first. Nonresidential structures increased 8.1 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 14.3 percent. Equipment and software increased 5.7 percent, compared with an increase of 8.7 percent. Real residential fixed investment increased 3.8 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 2.4 percent. Real exports of goods and services increased 6.0 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 7.9 percent in the first. Real imports of goods and services increased 1.3 percent, compared with an increase of 8.3 percent. Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 2.2 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 9.4 percent in the first. National defense increased 7.3 percent, in contrast to a decrease of 12.6 percent. Nondefense decreased 7.3 percent, compared with a decrease of 2.7 percent. Real state and local government consumption expenditures and gross investment decreased 3.4 percent, the same decrease as in the first. The change in real private inventories added 0.18 percentage point to the second-quarter change in real GDP after adding 0.32 percentage point to the first-quarter change. Private businesses increased inventories $49.6 billion in the second quarter, following increases of $49.1 billion in the first quarter and $38.3 billion in the fourth. Real final sales of domestic product -- GDP less change in private inventories -- increased 1.1 percent in the second quarter, after increasing less than 0.1 percent. Gross domestic purchases Real gross domestic purchases -- purchases by U.S. residents of goods and services wherever produced -- increased 0.7 percent in the second quarter, the same increase as in the first. Disposition of personal income Current-dollar personal income increased $132.5 billion (4.2 percent) in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $251.9 billion (8.3 percent) in the first. Personal current taxes increased $22.6 billion in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $122.3 billion in the first. Disposable personal income increased $109.9 billion (3.9 percent) in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $129.6 billion (4.7 percent) in the first. Real disposable personal income increased 0.7 percent, the same increase as in the first quarter. Personal outlays increased $83.5 billion (3.1 percent) in the second quarter, compared with an increase of $153.5 billion (5.8 percent) in the first. Personal saving -- disposable personal income less personal outlays -- was $590.6 billion in the second quarter, compared with $564.3 billion in the first. The personal saving rate -- saving as a percentage of disposable personal income -- was 5.1 percent in the second quarter, compared with 4.9 percent in the first. For a comparison of personal saving in BEA’s national income and product accounts with personal saving in the Federal Reserve Board’s flow of funds accounts and data on changes in net worth, go to www.bea.gov/national/nipaweb/Nipa-Frb.asp.

Current-dollar GDP

      Current-dollar GDP -- the market value of the nation's output of goods and services -- increased
3.7 percent, or $136.0 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $15,003.8 billion.  In the first quarter,
current-dollar GDP increased 3.1 percent, or $112.8 billion.

http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm 

The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee

“…The NBER’s Business Cycle Dating Committee maintains a chronology of the U.S. business cycle. The chronology comprises alternating dates of peaks and troughs in economic activity. A recession is a period between a peak and a trough, and an expansion is a period between a trough and a peak. During a recession, a significant decline in economic activity spreads across the economy and can last from a few months to more than a year. Similarly, during an expansion, economic activity rises substantially, spreads across the economy, and usually lasts for several years.

In both recessions and expansions, brief reversals in economic activity may occur-a recession may include a short period of expansion followed by further decline; an expansion may include a short period of contraction followed by further growth. The Committee applies its judgment based on the above definitions of recessions and expansions and has no fixed rule to determine whether a contraction is only a short interruption of an expansion, or an expansion is only a short interruption of a contraction. The most recent example of such a judgment that was less than obvious was in 1980-1982, when the Committee determined that the contraction that began in 1981 was not a continuation of the one that began in 1980, but rather a separate full recession.

The Committee does not have a fixed definition of economic activity. It examines and compares the behavior of various measures of broad activity: real GDP measured on the product and income sides, economy-wide employment, and real income. The Committee also may consider indicators that do not cover the entire economy, such as real sales and the Federal Reserve’s index of industrial production (IP). The Committee’s use of these indicators in conjunction with the broad measures recognizes the issue of double-counting of sectors included in both those indicators and the broad measures. Still, a well-defined peak or trough in real sales or IP might help to determine the overall peak or trough dates, particularly if the economy-wide indicators are in conflict or do not have well-defined peaks or troughs. …”

http://www.nber.org/cycles/recessions.html

Table 1.1.1. Percent Change From Preceding Period in Real Gross Domestic Product

[Percent] Seasonally adjusted at annual rates

Last Revised on: July 29, 2011 – Next Release Date August 26, 2011

Line 2009 2010 2011
I II III IV I II III IV I II
1 Gross domestic product -6.7 -0.7 1.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 2.5 2.3 0.4 1.3
2 Personal consumption expenditures -1.5 -1.9 2.3 0.4 2.7 2.9 2.6 3.6 2.1 0.1
3 Goods 0.1 -2.3 7.6 0.5 6.4 3.8 4.8 8.3 4.7 -1.3
4 Durable goods 2.4 -4.0 20.3 -4.8 9.9 7.8 8.8 17.2 11.7 -4.4
5 Nondurable goods -1.0 -1.5 2.0 3.1 4.8 1.9 3.0 4.3 1.6 0.1
6 Services -2.3 -1.7 -0.1 0.4 1.0 2.5 1.6 1.3 0.8 0.8
7 Gross private domestic investment -46.7 -22.8 2.9 36.8 31.5 26.4 9.2 -7.1 3.8 7.1
8 Fixed investment -32.2 -17.0 0.7 -3.8 1.2 19.5 2.3 7.5 1.2 5.9
9 Nonresidential -31.3 -15.8 -3.3 -3.7 6.0 18.6 11.3 8.7 2.1 6.3
10 Structures -32.1 -33.3 -20.1 -30.8 -24.7 7.5 4.2 10.5 -14.3 8.1
11 Equipment and software -30.8 -4.2 6.4 11.7 21.7 23.2 14.1 8.1 8.7 5.7
12 Residential -35.4 -21.3 17.8 -3.8 -15.3 22.8 -27.7 2.5 -2.4 3.8
13 Change in private inventories
14 Net exports of goods and services
15 Exports -29.0 -0.5 13.9 23.5 7.2 10.0 10.0 7.8 7.9 6.0
16 Goods -34.9 -2.9 21.3 28.4 12.1 11.8 8.9 9.2 10.6 6.8
17 Services -14.7 4.7 0.1 13.7 -2.7 6.1 12.6 4.7 1.7 4.0
18 Imports -34.0 -15.0 16.3 17.4 12.5 21.6 12.3 -2.3 8.3 1.3
19 Goods -37.1 -17.9 19.6 21.8 14.4 26.0 12.4 -0.5 9.5 1.5
20 Services -19.3 -2.5 4.2 0.4 4.6 3.3 11.6 -10.4 2.2 0.2
21 Government consumption expenditures and gross investment -1.7 5.9 1.3 -0.9 -1.2 3.7 1.0 -2.8 -5.9 -1.1
22 Federal -3.3 14.4 5.9 2.2 2.8 8.8 3.2 -3.0 -9.4 2.2
23 National defense -7.5 16.3 8.2 -1.3 0.5 6.0 5.7 -5.9 -12.6 7.3
24 Nondefense 6.5 10.4 1.0 9.9 7.8 14.7 -1.8 3.1 -2.7 -7.3
25 State and local -0.8 0.9 -1.5 -2.9 -3.9 0.4 -0.5 -2.7 -3.4 -3.4

Stagflation

“…In economics, stagflation is a situation in which the inflation rate is high and the economic growth rate is low. It raises a dilemma for economic policy since actions designed to lower inflation may worsen economic growth and vice versa. The portmanteau stagflation is generally attributed to British politician Iain Macleod, who coined the phrase in his speech to Parliament in 1965.[1][2][3] [4]

The concept is notable becase, in Keynesian macroeconomic theory which was dominant between the end of WWII and the late-1970’s, inflation and recession were regarded as mutually exclusive, the relationship between the two being described by the Phillips curve. In addition because stagflation has generally proven to be difficult and, in human terms as well as budget deficits, very costly to eradicate once it starts.

In the political arena one measure of stagflation termed the Misery Index (derived by the simple addition of the inflation rate to the unemployment rate) was used to swing presidential elections in the United States in 1976 and 1980. …”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stagflation

Misery Index

“…The misery index is an economic indicator, created by economist Arthur Okun, and found by adding the unemployment rate to the inflation rate. It is assumed that both a higher rate of unemployment and a worsening of inflation create economic and social costs for a country.[1] It is often incorrectly attributed to Harvard economist Robert Barro in the 1970s, due to the Barro Misery Index that additionally includes GDP and the bank rate.[2]

A 2001 paper looking at large-scale surveys in Europe and the United States concluded that the basic misery index underweights the unhappiness caused by joblessness: “the estimates suggest that people would trade off a 1-percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate for a 1.7-percentage-point increase in the inflation rate.”[3] …”

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Misery_index_(economics)

US Business Cycle Expansions and Contractions

http://www.nber.org/cycles/cyclesmain.html

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