Archive for September 17th, 2019

The Pronk Pops Show 1319, September 13, 2019, Story 1: The Winner of The 2020 Presidential Democrat Candidates Third Debate — And The Winner Is — President Trump in A Landslide — Videos

Posted on September 17, 2019. Filed under: 2020 Democrat Candidates, 2020 President Candidates, 2020 Republican Candidates, Abortion, Amy Klobuchar, Applications, Bernie Sanders, Blogroll, Breaking News, Bribes, Business, Climate, Climate Change, Communications, Computers, Congress, Corey Booker, Corruption, Countries, Crime, Donald J. Trump, Donald J. Trump, Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, Extortion, Hardware, High Crimes, House of Representatives, Joe Biden, Kamala Harris, Pete Buttigieg, Servers, Software, United Kingdom, United States of America | Tags: , , , , |

 

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The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts

Pronk Pops Show 1319 September 13, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1318 September 12, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1317 September 11, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1316 September 10, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1315 September 9, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1314 September 6, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1313 August 28, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1312 August 27, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1311 August 26, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1310 August 21, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1309 August 20, 2019

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Pronk Pops Show 1307 August 15, 2019

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Pronk Pops Show 1304 August 8, 2019

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Pronk Pops Show 1301 August 5, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1300 August 1, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1299 July 31, 2019

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Pronk Pops Show 1278 June 20, 2019 

Pronk Pops Show 1277 June 19, 2019

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Pronk Pops Show 1275 June 17, 2019

Pronk Pops Show 1274 June 13, 2019

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Story 1: The Winner of The 2020 Presidential Democrat Candidate Debate — And The Winner Is — President Trump in A Landslide  — Videos

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US election 2020: highlights from the third Democratic presidential debate

Democratic candidates debate: Opening statements l ABC News

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Democratic debate: The moments that mattered

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Watch: Analysis of the third Democratic presidential debate

#WashWeekPBS full episode: Recapping the September Democratic debate

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The True Believer

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Thomas Sowell on Intellectuals and Society

Thomas Sowell on the second edition of Intellectuals and Society

Thomas Sowell: Global Warming Manufactured by Intellectuals?

Thomas Sowell — Dismantling America

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Why The Rich Like High Taxes

Green New Deal: Fact versus Fiction

The True Believer: Thoughts On The Nature Of Mass Movements by Eric Hoffer Chapter 1

Sergei Eisenstein’s October – “Propaganda for True Believers”

 

A Final Look At Who Won The Third Democratic Debate

We partnered with Ipsos to poll voters before and after the candidates took the stage.

If something is going to shake up the race before the Iowa caucuses, it’s likely to be a debate. So we partnered with Ipsos to once again track how Thursday’s debate, hosted by ABC News, affected likely primary voters’ feelings about the candidates. The FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll, conducted using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel, interviewed the same group of voters twice to capture both the “before” and “after” picture of the debate.

POST-DEBATE REACTIONS

The over- (and under-) performers

How favorably all likely primary voters felt about each candidate before the debate vs. how well respondents who watched the debate thought each candidate did

somewhat unfavorableneutralsomewhat favorablesomewhat badneutralsomewhat goodvery goodTrendBidenBookerButtigiegCastroHarrisKlobucharO’RourkeSandersWarrenYangBidenBookerButtigiegCastroHarrisKlobucharO’RourkeSandersWarrenYangPre-debate favorabilityDebate performance

To better understand which candidates did well or poorly Thursday night, we plotted how favorably respondents rated the candidates before the debate vs. how debate-watchers rated their performance. Warren was one of the better-liked candidates going into the debate, but her performance was still rated higher than we’d expect based on her favorability alone. The same was true of Booker, Buttigieg and (especially) O’Rourke. Interestingly, Klobuchar didn’t get a great debate rating, but it’s not bad considering her pre-debate favorability, which was pretty neutral. Biden and Sanders are very popular with Democrats but failed to get correspondingly high scores on their debate performance, while Castro stands out for getting the worst debate grade — even considering his relatively lukewarm favorability rating going in.

The numbers behind the chart

CANDIDATE PRE-DEBATE FAVORABILITY DEBATE PERFORMANCE
Elizabeth Warren 70.2% 3.3
Pete Buttigieg 65.7 3.1
Beto O’Rourke 58.9 3.1
Cory Booker 59.8 3.0
Bernie Sanders 66.3 3.0
Joe Biden 67.6 3.0
Kamala Harris 61.8 2.9
Amy Klobuchar 52.8 2.8
Andrew Yang 56.3 2.7
Julián Castro 58.0 2.5

In terms of raw debate grades — respondents graded on a four-point scale (higher scores are better) — Warren, Buttigieg and O’Rourke did best. Booker, Sanders, Biden and Harris did fine.

Who gained (and lost) support

Share of respondents who are considering voting for each candidate

BEFORE DEBATEAFTER DEBATE
0%102030405060Joe Biden56.6%56.6%55.8%55.8%Elizabeth Warren44.4%44.4%46.8%46.8%Bernie Sanders41.8%41.8%40.2%40.2%Kamala Harris27.7%27.7%25.2%25.2%Pete Buttigieg21.7%21.7%23.2%23.2%Beto O’Rourke15.6%15.6%16.1%16.1%Cory Booker13.4%13.4%14.4%14.4%Andrew Yang9.1%9.1%9.9%9.9%Amy Klobuchar6.4%6.4%7.7%7.7%Julián Castro7.9%7.9%6.8%6.8%

Respondents could pick multiple candidates.

The field may be shrinking, but many voters are still considering multiple candidates. Overall, we didn’t see huge shifts in the wake of the third debate, but there was some movement. Warren got the biggest increase — 2.4 percentage points — in the share of likely Democratic primary voters who are considering supporting her. Buttigieg and Klobuchar each gained a little over a point in potential support — 1.5 points for him and 1.3 points for her. Harris, meanwhile, saw the biggest drop in potential supporters, declining 2.5 points. Biden’s support barely budged; neither did O’Rourke’s, even though the former representative got positive marks for his performance.

Who voters think can beat Trump

Respondents’ estimates of the likelihood, from 0 percent (impossible) to 100 percent (certain), that each candidate would beat Trump

Joe Biden
20400%100%Absolutely certainto lose to TrumpAbsolutely certainto beat TrumpOutline showspre-debate results
Bernie Sanders
20400%100%
Elizabeth Warren
20400%100%
Kamala Harris
20400%100%
Beto O’Rourke
20400%100%
Pete Buttigieg
20400%100%
Cory Booker
20400%100%
Julián Castro
20400%100%
Amy Klobuchar
20400%100%
Andrew Yang
20400%100%

We also asked respondents to estimate each Democrat’s chances of defeating President Trump — from 0 percent to 100 percent. Polls show Democratic primary voters are prioritizing “electability,” but who do they think is electable? As you can see in the chart above, Klobuchar, who had one of the lower average scores going into the debate, saw fewer respondents say she had zero chance of defeating Trump. Buttigieg likewise had fewer people rate him as having no chance. Biden and Sanders, meanwhile, saw a small drop in the share of respondents who said they were certain those candidates would beat Trump.

Respondents’ average rating of candidates’ chances vs. Trump

CANDIDATE PRE-DEBATE AVERAGE POST-DEBATE AVERAGE DIFF
Joe Biden 68.3 67.4 -0.9
Bernie Sanders 55.7 55.0 -0.7
Elizabeth Warren 51.4 53.0 +1.6
Kamala Harris 40.2 40.4 +0.2
Beto O’Rourke 33.6 34.9 +1.3
Pete Buttigieg 33.4 34.3 +0.8
Cory Booker 32.0 33.2 +1.2
Julián Castro 25.4 26.1 +0.8
Amy Klobuchar 23.3 25.3 +2.1
Andrew Yang 23.1 24.5 +1.4

There wasn’t much movement in respondents’ average estimates of how likely each candidate would be to defeat Trump in the general election. Most candidates saw their average likelihood increase, but only marginally. Klobuchar saw the largest bump, 2.1 percentage points, followed by Warren and Yang.

The popularity contest

Candidates’ favorable and unfavorable ratings among likely primary voters

Unfavorable
Favorable
Before debate
After debate
Joe Biden
69.1%
23.4%
70.7%
23.6%
Bernie Sanders
68.0%
24.0%
69.0%
24.7%
Elizabeth Warren
63.8%
15.3%
68.5%
15.6%
Kamala Harris
51.8%
20.4%
55.1%
22.6%
Pete Buttigieg
43.9%
11.7%
49.4%
13.6%
Beto O’Rourke
43.2%
19.3%
49.8%
18.6%
Cory Booker
42.7%
16.0%
48.2%
18.8%
Julián Castro
32.2%
12.4%
33.0%
23.4%
Andrew Yang
28.4%
13.6%
34.9%
20.4%
Amy Klobuchar
25.1%
17.0%
32.4%
20.6%

We asked likely Democratic primary voters how favorably they felt about each candidate both before and after the debate. As you can see, among the polling front-runners, Biden and Sanders’s favorability ratings remained relatively unchanged, while Warren’s net favorability (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) jumped by a little over 4 points. In fact, only O’Rourke fared better than Warren; his net favorability rating increased a little over 7 points. But not all candidates made a positive impression. Castro’s net favorability, for instance, dropped by 10 points this time, after getting a big boost in the first debate.

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