The Pronk Pops Show 771, October 7, 2016, Story 1: Job Growth Slowing Down with 156,000 Non-farm Payroll Jobs in September and Uptick On U-3 Unemployment To 5% and Labor Participation Rate of 62. 9% With 94,184,000 Not In Labor Force — Heading For Another Recession? — Videos — Story 2: Will Fed Raise Fed Funds Target In December by .25% And Tip The Economy Into A Recession? Stagnation Then Stagflation — Buy Gold — Videos — Story 3: Tribute To Entrepreneurs — Restoring The American Dream — Videos

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Project_1

The Pronk Pops Show Podcasts

Pronk Pops Show 771: October 7, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 770: October 6, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 769: October 5, 2016 

Pronk Pops Show 768: October 3, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 767: September 30, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 766: September 29, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 765: September 28, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 764: September 27, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 763: September 26, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 762: September 23, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 761: September 22, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 760: September 21, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 759: September 20, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 758: September 19, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 757: September 16, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 756: September 15, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 755: September 14, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 754: September 13, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 753: September 12, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 752: September 9, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 751: September 8, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 750: September 7, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 749: September 2, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 748: September 1, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 747: August 31, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 746: August 30, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 745: August 29, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 744: August 26, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 743: August 25, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 742: August 24, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 741: August 23, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 740: August 22, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 739: August 18, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 738: August 17, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 737: August 16, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 736: August 15, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 735: August 12, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 734: August 11, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 733: August 9, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 732: August 8, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 731: August 4, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 730: August 3, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 729: August 1, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 728: July 29, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 727: July 28, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 726: July 27, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 725: July 26, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 724: July 25, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 723: July 22, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 722: July 21, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 721: July 20, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 720: July 19, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 719: July 18, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 718: July 15, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 717: July 14, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 716: July 13, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 715: July 12, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 714: July 7, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 713: July 6, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 712: July 5, 2016

Pronk Pops Show 711: July 1, 2016

Story 1: Job Growth Slowing Down with 156,000 Non-farm Payroll Jobs in September and Uptick On U-3 Unemployment To 5% and Labor Participation Rate of 62. 9% With 94,184,000 Not In Labor Force — Heading For Another Recession? — Videos

What’s the fallout from the jobs report?

Breaking down the September jobs report

What the September jobs report means for a rate hike

U.S. Jobs Report: 156,000 New Jobs Added In September

‘Boring’ Jobs Report May Be New Normal

.

Ep. 201: September Jobs Report Even Weaker Than It Appears

McCullough: Why Mainstream Media Is Wrong About Today’s Jobs Report

‘Macro Mentoring’ With Hedgeye’s Keith McCullough : Session 4

Quarter-to-Quarter Growth in Real GDP

The ShadowStats Alternate Unemployment Rate for October 2016 is 23.0%

Alternate Unemployment Charts

The seasonally-adjusted SGS Alternate Unemployment Rate reflects current unemployment reporting methodology adjusted for SGS-estimated long-term discouraged workers, who were defined out of official existence in 1994. That estimate is added to the BLS estimate of U-6 unemployment, which includes short-term discouraged workers.

The U-3 unemployment rate is the monthly headline number. The U-6 unemployment rate is the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) broadest unemployment measure, including short-term discouraged and other marginally-attached workers as well as those forced to work part-time because they cannot find full-time employment.

Employment, Hours, and Earnings from the Current Employment Statistics survey (National)

1-Month Net Change

Series Id:     CES0000000001
Seasonally Adjusted
Series Title:  All employees, thousands, total nonfarm, seasonally adjusted
Super Sector:  Total nonfarm
Industry:      Total nonfarm
NAICS Code:    -
Data Type:     ALL EMPLOYEES, THOUSANDS

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1980 129 80 112 -144 -431 -320 -262 260 113 281 257 195
1981 94 68 105 73 10 197 112 -36 -87 -99 -209 -278
1982 -326 -5 -130 -280 -45 -243 -342 -158 -181 -277 -123 -14
1983 224 -75 172 276 277 379 418 -308 1115 271 353 356
1984 446 481 275 363 308 379 313 242 310 286 349 128
1985 266 124 346 196 274 146 190 193 203 188 209 167
1986 125 107 94 187 127 -94 318 114 347 186 186 205
1987 172 232 249 338 226 172 347 171 228 492 232 294
1988 94 453 276 245 229 363 222 124 339 268 339 290
1989 262 258 193 173 118 116 40 49 250 111 277 96
1990 335 249 214 40 151 24 -32 -216 -89 -159 -150 -56
1991 -120 -305 -158 -211 -125 97 -40 10 32 17 -58 26
1992 52 -63 54 159 126 68 71 138 36 182 136 212
1993 309 242 -49 308 266 182 301 156 240 286 263 312
1994 271 200 465 350 333 315 373 282 353 213 420 277
1995 324 204 221 162 -15 234 96 253 244 153 149 133
1996 -19 432 267 163 322 287 249 179 225 250 299 171
1997 234 303 316 292 260 266 306 -31 512 340 306 303
1998 276 196 151 280 404 219 129 342 223 199 282 346
1999 126 410 107 376 211 260 326 160 214 400 293 296
2000 230 130 468 287 227 -47 176 -10 136 -14 226 142
2001 -26 72 -25 -281 -38 -131 -112 -157 -240 -325 -293 -170
2002 -138 -134 -20 -79 -7 57 -85 -14 -59 126 10 -157
2003 92 -150 -209 -44 -8 9 24 -42 104 198 17 122
2004 162 46 332 249 308 76 44 121 164 346 64 130
2005 134 239 136 365 174 247 376 194 68 85 337 159
2006 278 316 281 183 23 82 207 181 158 4 208 171
2007 240 90 189 79 143 78 -33 -24 88 85 115 97
2008 19 -86 -78 -210 -185 -165 -209 -266 -452 -473 -769 -695
2009 -791 -703 -823 -686 -351 -470 -329 -212 -219 -200 -7 -279
2010 28 -69 163 243 522 -133 -70 -34 -52 257 123 88
2011 42 188 225 346 73 235 70 107 246 202 146 207
2012 338 257 239 75 115 87 143 190 181 132 149 243
2013 190 311 135 192 218 146 140 269 185 189 291 45
2014 187 168 272 310 213 306 232 218 286 200 331 292
2015 221 265 84 251 273 228 277 150 149 295 280 271
2016 168 233 186 144 24 271 252 167(P) 156(P)
P : preliminary

Civilian Labor Force Level

159,907,000

Series Id:           LNS11000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Civilian Labor Force Level
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 142267(1) 142456 142434 142751 142388 142591 142278 142514 142518 142622 142962 143248
2001 143800 143701 143924 143569 143318 143357 143654 143284 143989 144086 144240 144305
2002 143883 144653 144481 144725 144938 144808 144803 145009 145552 145314 145041 145066
2003 145937(1) 146100 146022 146474 146500 147056 146485 146445 146530 146716 147000 146729
2004 146842(1) 146709 146944 146850 147065 147460 147692 147564 147415 147793 148162 148059
2005 148029(1) 148364 148391 148926 149261 149238 149432 149779 149954 150001 150065 150030
2006 150214(1) 150641 150813 150881 151069 151354 151377 151716 151662 152041 152406 152732
2007 153144(1) 152983 153051 152435 152670 153041 153054 152749 153414 153183 153835 153918
2008 154063(1) 153653 153908 153769 154303 154313 154469 154641 154570 154876 154639 154655
2009 154210(1) 154538 154133 154509 154747 154716 154502 154307 153827 153784 153878 153111
2010 153484(1) 153694 153954 154622 154091 153616 153691 154086 153975 153635 154125 153650
2011 153263(1) 153214 153376 153543 153479 153346 153288 153760 154131 153961 154128 153995
2012 154351(1) 154695 154768 154557 154859 155084 154943 154753 155168 155539 155356 155597
2013 155666(1) 155313 155034 155365 155483 155753 155662 155568 155749 154694 155352 155083
2014 155285(1) 155560 156187 155376 155511 155684 156090 156080 156129 156363 156442 156142
2015 157025(1) 156878 156890 157032 157367 156984 157115 157061 156867 157096 157367 157833
2016 158335(1) 158890 159286 158924 158466 158880 159287 159463 159907
1 : Data affected by changes in population controls.

Labor Force Participation Rate

62.8%

Series Id:           LNS11300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Labor Force Participation Rate
Labor force status:  Civilian labor force participation rate
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Employment Level

151,968,000

Series Id:           LNS12000000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Employment Level
Labor force status:  Employed
Type of data:        Number in thousands
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 136559(1) 136598 136701 137270 136630 136940 136531 136662 136893 137088 137322 137614
2001 137778 137612 137783 137299 137092 136873 137071 136241 136846 136392 136238 136047
2002 135701 136438 136177 136126 136539 136415 136413 136705 137302 137008 136521 136426
2003 137417(1) 137482 137434 137633 137544 137790 137474 137549 137609 137984 138424 138411
2004 138472(1) 138542 138453 138680 138852 139174 139556 139573 139487 139732 140231 140125
2005 140245(1) 140385 140654 141254 141609 141714 142026 142434 142401 142548 142499 142752
2006 143150(1) 143457 143741 143761 144089 144353 144202 144625 144815 145314 145534 145970
2007 146028(1) 146057 146320 145586 145903 146063 145905 145682 146244 145946 146595 146273
2008 146378(1) 146156 146086 146132 145908 145737 145532 145203 145076 144802 144100 143369
2009 142152(1) 141640 140707 140656 140248 140009 139901 139492 138818 138432 138659 138013
2010 138438(1) 138581 138751 139297 139241 139141 139179 139438 139396 139119 139044 139301
2011 139250(1) 139394 139639 139586 139624 139384 139524 139942 140183 140368 140826 140902
2012 141596(1) 141877 142050 141916 142204 142387 142281 142278 143028 143404 143345 143298
2013 143249(1) 143359 143352 143622 143842 144003 144300 144284 144447 143537 144555 144684
2014 145092(1) 145185 145772 145677 145792 146214 146438 146464 146834 147374 147389 147439
2015 148104(1) 148231 148333 148509 148748 148722 148866 149043 148942 149197 149444 149929
2016 150544(1) 151074 151320 151004 151030 151097 151517 151614 151968

Employment-Population Ratio

59.8%

Series Id:           LNS12300000
Seasonally Adjusted
Series title:        (Seas) Employment-Population Ratio
Labor force status:  Employment-population ratio
Type of data:        Percent or rate
Age:                 16 years and over

Download:
Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2000 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.7 64.4 64.5 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.2 64.3 64.4
2001 64.4 64.3 64.3 64.0 63.8 63.7 63.7 63.2 63.5 63.2 63.0 62.9
2002 62.7 63.0 62.8 62.7 62.9 62.7 62.7 62.7 63.0 62.7 62.5 62.4
2003 62.5 62.5 62.4 62.4 62.3 62.3 62.1 62.1 62.0 62.1 62.3 62.2
2004 62.3 62.3 62.2 62.3 62.3 62.4 62.5 62.4 62.3 62.3 62.5 62.4
2005 62.4 62.4 62.4 62.7 62.8 62.7 62.8 62.9 62.8 62.8 62.7 62.8
2006 62.9 63.0 63.1 63.0 63.1 63.1 63.0 63.1 63.1 63.3 63.3 63.4
2007 63.3 63.3 63.3 63.0 63.0 63.0 62.9 62.7 62.9 62.7 62.9 62.7
2008 62.9 62.8 62.7 62.7 62.5 62.4 62.2 62.0 61.9 61.7 61.4 61.0
2009 60.6 60.3 59.9 59.8 59.6 59.4 59.3 59.1 58.7 58.5 58.6 58.3
2010 58.5 58.5 58.5 58.7 58.6 58.5 58.5 58.6 58.5 58.3 58.2 58.3
2011 58.3 58.4 58.4 58.4 58.3 58.2 58.2 58.3 58.4 58.4 58.6 58.6
2012 58.4 58.5 58.6 58.5 58.5 58.6 58.5 58.4 58.7 58.8 58.7 58.6
2013 58.5 58.6 58.5 58.6 58.6 58.6 58.7 58.7 58.7 58.3 58.6 58.6
2014 58.8 58.8 59.0 58.9 58.9 59.0 59.0 59.0 59.1 59.3 59.2 59.2
2015 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.3 59.3 59.4 59.5
2016 59.6 59.8 59.9 59.7 59.7 59.6 59.7 59.7 59.8

Unemployment Level

7,939,000

Employment Situation Summary Table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted

HOUSEHOLD DATA
Summary table A. Household data, seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
Category Sept.
2015
July
2016
Aug.
2016
Sept.
2016
Change from:
Aug.
2016-
Sept.
2016

Employment status

Civilian noninstitutional population

251,325 253,620 253,854 254,091 237

Civilian labor force

156,867 159,287 159,463 159,907 444

Participation rate

62.4 62.8 62.8 62.9 0.1

Employed

148,942 151,517 151,614 151,968 354

Employment-population ratio

59.3 59.7 59.7 59.8 0.1

Unemployed

7,925 7,770 7,849 7,939 90

Unemployment rate

5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 0.1

Not in labor force

94,458 94,333 94,391 94,184 -207

Unemployment rates

Total, 16 years and over

5.1 4.9 4.9 5.0 0.1

Adult men (20 years and over)

4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 0.2

Adult women (20 years and over)

4.5 4.3 4.5 4.4 -0.1

Teenagers (16 to 19 years)

16.2 15.6 15.7 15.8 0.1

White

4.4 4.3 4.4 4.4 0.0

Black or African American

9.2 8.4 8.1 8.3 0.2

Asian

3.7 3.8 4.2 3.9 -0.3

Hispanic or Latino ethnicity

6.4 5.4 5.6 6.4 0.8

Total, 25 years and over

4.1 4.0 4.1 4.2 0.1

Less than a high school diploma

7.7 6.3 7.2 8.5 1.3

High school graduates, no college

5.3 5.0 5.1 5.2 0.1

Some college or associate degree

4.3 4.3 4.3 4.2 -0.1

Bachelor’s degree and higher

2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 -0.2

Reason for unemployment

Job losers and persons who completed temporary jobs

3,883 3,739 3,791 3,967 176

Job leavers

778 824 885 893 8

Reentrants

2,443 2,298 2,271 2,333 62

New entrants

832 826 861 805 -56

Duration of unemployment

Less than 5 weeks

2,373 2,160 2,290 2,574 284

5 to 14 weeks

2,211 2,266 2,329 2,234 -95

15 to 26 weeks

1,228 1,150 1,056 1,157 101

27 weeks and over

2,109 2,020 2,006 1,974 -32

Employed persons at work part time

Part time for economic reasons

6,034 5,940 6,053 5,894 -159

Slack work or business conditions

3,563 3,642 3,727 3,618 -109

Could only find part-time work

2,123 1,981 1,929 1,969 40

Part time for noneconomic reasons

19,997 20,717 20,523 20,688 165

Persons not in the labor force (not seasonally adjusted)

Marginally attached to the labor force

1,921 1,950 1,713 1,844

Discouraged workers

635 591 576 553

– Over-the-month changes are not displayed for not seasonally adjusted data.
NOTE: Persons whose ethnicity is identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race. Detail for the seasonally adjusted data shown in this table will not necessarily add to totals because of the independent seasonal adjustment of the various series. Updated population controls are introduced annually with the release of January data.

Employment Situation Summary Table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted

ESTABLISHMENT DATA
Summary table B. Establishment data, seasonally adjusted
Category Sept.
2015
July
2016
Aug.
2016(p)
Sept.
2016(p)

EMPLOYMENT BY SELECTED INDUSTRY
(Over-the-month change, in thousands)

Total nonfarm

149 252 167 156

Total private

162 221 144 167

Goods-producing

-12 14 -25 10

Mining and logging

-13 -4 -4 0

Construction

10 16 -5 23

Manufacturing

-9 2 -16 -13

Durable goods(1)

-7 4 -17 -11

Motor vehicles and parts

4.2 5.8 -4.6 -3.1

Nondurable goods

-2 -2 1 -2

Private service-providing

174 207 169 157

Wholesale trade

-1.0 3.0 4.7 9.7

Retail trade

6.4 12.9 20.9 22.0

Transportation and warehousing

4.4 12.2 18.6 -9.0

Utilities

-0.1 0.6 -0.8 0.4

Information

13 -5 -4 1

Financial activities

3 17 13 6

Professional and business services(1)

40 84 31 67

Temporary help services

7.5 15.8 -1.0 23.2

Education and health services(1)

55 42 57 29

Health care and social assistance

46.9 52.1 45.3 21.8

Leisure and hospitality

50 36 21 15

Other services

4 4 8 15

Government

-13 31 23 -11

(3-month average change, in thousands)

Total nonfarm

192 182 230 192

Total private

177 153 201 177

WOMEN AND PRODUCTION AND NONSUPERVISORY EMPLOYEES
AS A PERCENT OF ALL EMPLOYEES(2)

Total nonfarm women employees

49.4 49.6 49.7 49.7

Total private women employees

47.9 48.2 48.2 48.2

Total private production and nonsupervisory employees

82.4 82.4 82.3 82.3

HOURS AND EARNINGS
ALL EMPLOYEES

Total private

Average weekly hours

34.5 34.4 34.3 34.4

Average hourly earnings

$25.14 $25.71 $25.73 $25.79

Average weekly earnings

$867.33 $884.42 $882.54 $887.18

Index of aggregate weekly hours (2007=100)(3)

104.1 105.6 105.4 105.8

Over-the-month percent change

-0.2 0.2 -0.2 0.4

Index of aggregate weekly payrolls (2007=100)(4)

125.1 129.7 129.6 130.5

Over-the-month percent change

-0.1 0.5 -0.1 0.7

DIFFUSION INDEX
(Over 1-month span)(5)

Total private (262 industries)

52.9 61.5 59.0 57.8

Manufacturing (79 industries)

38.6 48.1 46.8 39.2

Footnotes
(1) Includes other industries, not shown separately.
(2) Data relate to production employees in mining and logging and manufacturing, construction employees in construction, and nonsupervisory employees in the service-providing industries.
(3) The indexes of aggregate weekly hours are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate hours by the corresponding annual average aggregate hours.
(4) The indexes of aggregate weekly payrolls are calculated by dividing the current month’s estimates of aggregate weekly payrolls by the corresponding annual average aggregate weekly payrolls.
(5) Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industries with increasing and decreasing employment.
(p) Preliminary

NOTE: Data have been revised to reflect March 2015 benchmark levels and updated seasonal adjustment factors.

National Income and Product Accounts
Gross Domestic Product: Second Quarter 2016 (Third Estimate)
Corporate Profits: Second Quarter 2016 (Revised Estimate)
Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 1.4 percent in the second quarter of 2016
(table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first
quarter, real GDP increased 0.8 percent.

The GDP estimate released today is based on more complete source data than were available for the
"second" estimate issued last month.  In the second estimate, the increase in real GDP was 1.1 percent.
With the third estimate for the second quarter, the general picture of economic growth remains the
same. The most notable change from the second to third estimate is that nonresidential fixed
investment increased in the second quarter; in the previous estimate, nonresidential fixed investment
decreased (see "Updates to GDP" on page 2).
Real GDP: Percent Change from Preceding Quarter
Real gross domestic income (GDI) decreased 0.2 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to an
increase of 0.8 percent in the first. The average of real GDP and real GDI, a supplemental measure of
U.S. economic activity that equally weights GDP and GDI, increased 0.6 percent in the second quarter,
compared with an increase of 0.8 percent in the first (table 1).

The increase in real GDP in the second quarter reflected positive contributions from personal
consumption expenditures (PCE), exports, and nonresidential fixed investment. These were partly offset
by negative contributions from private inventory investment, residential fixed investment, and state and
local government spending. Imports, which are a subtraction in the calculation of GDP, increased (table
2).

The acceleration in real GDP in the second quarter primarily reflected an acceleration in PCE and
upturns in nonresidential fixed investment and in exports. These were partly offset by a larger decrease
in private inventory investment, downturns in state and local government spending and in residential
fixed investment, and an upturn in imports.

Current-dollar GDP increased 3.7 percent, or $168.5 billion, in the second quarter to a level of $18,450.1
billion (table 1 and table 3). In the first quarter, current dollar GDP increased 1.3 percent, or $58.8
billion.

The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 2.1 percent in the second quarter, compared
with an increase of 0.2 percent in the first (table 4). The PCE price index increased 2.0 percent,
compared with an increase of 0.3 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index
increased 1.8 percent, compared with an increase of 2.1 percent (appendix table A).


Updates to GDP

The upward revision to the percent change in real GDP primarily reflected upward revisions to
nonresidential fixed investment, private inventory investment, and exports. For more information, see
the Technical Note. For information on updates to GDP, see the “Additional Information” section that
follows.


                                           Advance Estimate          Second Estimate            Third Estimate

                                                         (Percent change from preceding quarter)
Real GDP                                         1.2                       1.1                        1.4
Current-dollar GDP                               3.5                       3.4                        3.7
Real GDI                                         ---                       0.2                       -0.2
Average of Real GDP and Real GDI                 ---                       0.6                        0.6
Gross domestic purchases price index             2.0                       2.1                        2.1
PCE price index                                  1.9                       2.0                        2.0


Corporate Profits (table 12)

Profits from current production (corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment and capital
consumption adjustment) decreased $12.5 billion in the second quarter, in contrast to an increase of
$66.0 billion in the first.

Profits of domestic financial corporations increased $5.6 billion in the second quarter, compared with
an increase of $8.1 billion in the first. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations decreased $56.1
billion, in contrast to an increase of $84.8 billion. The rest-of-the-world component of profits increased
$38.0 billion, in contrast to a decrease of $26.9 billion. This measure is calculated as the difference
between receipts from the rest of the world and payments to the rest of the world. In the second
quarter, receipts increased $37.5 billion, and payments decreased $0.5 billion.



                                                 *          *          *

                                   Next release:  October 28, 2016 at 8:30 A.M. EDT
                             Gross Domestic Product:  Third Quarter 2016 (Advance Estimate)
                         
                                                 *          *          *


                                                 Additional Information

Resources

Additional Resources available at www.bea.gov:
•	Stay informed about BEA developments by reading the BEA blog, signing up for BEA’s email subscription service, 
or following BEA on Twitter @BEA_News.
•	Historical time series for these estimates can be accessed in BEA’s Interactive Data Application.
•	Access BEA data by registering for BEA’s Data Application Programming Interface (API).
•	For more on BEA’s statistics, see our monthly online journal, the Survey of Current Business.
•	BEA's news release scheduleNIPA Handbook:  Concepts and Methods of the U.S. National Income and Product Accounts

Definitions

Gross domestic product (GDP) is the value of the goods and services produced by the nation’s economy
less the value of the goods and services used up in production. GDP is also equal to the sum of personal
consumption expenditures, gross private domestic investment, net exports of goods and services, and
government consumption expenditures and gross investment.

Gross domestic income (GDI) is the sum of incomes earned and costs incurred in the production of GDP.
In national economic accounting, GDP and GDI are conceptually equal. In practice, GDP and GDI differ
because they are constructed using largely independent source data. Real GDI is calculated by deflating
gross domestic income using the GDP price index as the deflator, and is therefore conceptually
equivalent to real GDP.

Current-dollar estimates are valued in the prices of the period when the transactions occurred—that is,
at “market value.” Also referred to as “nominal estimates” or as “current-price estimates.”
Real values are inflation-adjusted estimates—that is, estimates that exclude the effects of price changes.
The gross domestic purchases price index measures the prices of final goods and services purchased by
U.S. residents.

The personal consumption expenditure price index measures the prices paid for the goods and services
purchased by, or on the behalf of, “persons.”

Profits from current production, referred to as corporate profits with inventory valuation adjustment
(IVA) and capital consumption adjustment (CCAdj) in the NIPAs, is a measure of the net income of
corporations before deducting income taxes that is consistent with the value of goods and services
measured in GDP. The IVA and CCAdj are adjustments that convert inventory withdrawals and
depreciation of fixed assets reported on a tax-return, historical-cost basis to the current-cost economic
measures used in the national income and product accounts.

For more definitions, see the Glossary: National Income and Product Accounts.


Statistical conventions

Annual rates. Quarterly values are expressed at seasonally-adjusted annual rates (SAAR), unless
otherwise specified. Dollar changes are calculated as the difference between these SAAR values. For
detail, see the FAQ “Why does BEA publish estimates at annual rates?”

Percent changes in quarterly series are calculated from unrounded data and are displayed at annual
rates, unless otherwise specified. For details, see the FAQ “How is average annual growth calculated?”

Quantities and prices. Quantities, or “real” volume measures, and prices are expressed as index
numbers with a specified reference year equal to 100 (currently 2009). Quantity and price indexes are
calculated using a Fisher-chained weighted formula that incorporates weights from two adjacent
periods (quarters for quarterly data and annuals for annual data). “Real” dollar series are calculated by
multiplying the published quantity index by the current dollar value in the reference year (2009) and
then dividing by 100. Percent changes calculated from real quantity indexes and chained-dollar levels
are conceptually the same; any differences are due to rounding.

Chained-dollar values are not additive because the relative weights for a given period differ from those
of the reference year. In tables that display chained-dollar values, a “residual” line shows the difference
between the sum of detailed chained-dollar series and its corresponding aggregate.


Updates to GDP

BEA releases three vintages of the current quarterly estimate for GDP:  "Advance" estimates are
released near the end of the first month following the end of the quarter and are based on source data
that are incomplete or subject to further revision by the source agency; “second” and “third” estimates
are released near the end of the second and third months, respectively, and are based on more detailed
and more comprehensive data as they become available.

Annual and comprehensive updates are typically released in late July. Annual updates generally cover at
least the 3 most recent calendar years (and their associated quarters) and incorporate newly available
major annual source data as well as some changes in methods and definitions to improve the accounts.
Comprehensive (or benchmark) updates are carried out at about 5-year intervals and incorporate major
periodic source data, as well as major conceptual improvements.
The table below shows the average revisions to the quarterly percent changes in real GDP between
different estimate vintages, without regard to sign.

Vintage                               Average Revision Without Regard to Sign
                                         (percentage points, annual rates)
Advance to second                                     0.5
Advance to third                                      0.6
Second to third                                       0.2
Advance to latest                                     1.2
Note - Based on estimates from 1993 through 2014. For more information on GDP updates, see Revision
Information on the BEA Web site.

The larger average revision from the advance to the latest estimate reflects the fact that periodic
comprehensive updates include major statistical and methodological improvements.

Unlike GDP, an advance current quarterly estimate of GDI is not released because data on domestic
profits and on net interest of domestic industries are not available. For fourth quarter estimates, these
data are not available until the third estimate.

http://bea.gov/newsreleases/national/GDP/GDPnewsrelease.htm

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